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According to SI.com’s Jon Heyman, speaking to WFAN yesterday, Mets management may meet today to discuss who will be the team’s fifth starter.
Meanwhile, the Brewers released RHP Claudio Vargas yesterday, according the the Journal Sentinel.
In a post to his blog for the New York Post, Joel Sherman says he would not be surprised to see the Mets try and sign Vargas.
Also in the New York Post, Bart Hubbach quotes Minaya as saying he will take a close look at Vargas, who is a ‘good name.’
Vargas, 29, was 11-6 with a 5.09 ERA in 29 games for the Brewers last season, during which he started 23 games.
His ERA has gone up in each of his last three seasons.
…my question is: will vargas make for a better fifth starter than what the Mets have now…i’m not sure he will…he might…but i don’t know that he will…again, he may be better than Nelson Figeuroa, he might not…who knows…he’s far from a sure thing, which will likely be the case with any potential number five starter, including Mike Pelfrey or Orlando Hernandez…like with the rest of these players we keep reading about, i’d welcome vargas to the Mets, assuming he is not guaranteed a roster spot, because he is a decent pitcher with potential…i just don’t want to see the Mets in a position where they committ to vargas, creating other restrictions down the road – mostly because i do not trust this organization when it comes to roster management…
During his interview with WFAN, Heyman had the following to say about Pelfrey, who has allowed 16 runs in 17 innings this spring:
“I would not give him a start…he has just not done it. The scouts are saying he’s throwing 90 to 92, which isn’t him and he’s not locating - even the fastball…The Mets are saying he’s got the stuff, he’s just not using it properly. It might be mental toughness or something like that. The scouts are saying he’s really not locating and he’s not throwing quite as hard and he’s just not looking very good. I would send him back. I think the Mets figure he’s a number one pick and he has the ability and he can be a number five starter on talent alone and a lot of people still think he can be a Kevin Brown type pitcher ultimately.”
In Heyman’s opinion, the Mets should give the job to either Nelson Figueroa or Jon Neise, who allowed two runs and six walks through four innings yesterday against the Braves.
…by the way, thanks to Peter Wade for the quote, who does a great job keeping tabs on the media for MetsBlog…
Meanwhile, In a report for MLB.com, Marty Noble says the Mets will consider Jorge Sosa for the fifth starter job as well.
…i’m sure he is being considered, but i just don’t see this happening…he has not been stretched out enough…i mean, if they want to use him for one start, knowing the bullpen will need to fill in that day, fine…but, right now, he’s not the answer…he’s been preparing for the long-man role, which he is a perfect fit for…
…personally, as i suggested last week, assuming vargas is not in the picture, i, like heyman, would use figueroa as the team’s fifth starter for now, while letting pelfrey get work in Triple-A, and letting el duque get ‘healthy’ back in extended spring training…once el duque shows that he is ‘healthy,’ he can take the stage and entertain us with his wiffle-ball magic show, because he has earned the right to do so…
…in the end, though, we’re talking about the fifth starter, which is always a mish-mosh of rookies and journeymen, all season long, for every team…the Mets are not special just because we cheer for them…in other words, there is no silver bullet here, there is a lack of quality pitching in MLB, we need to accept it and just hope for the best - like more or less every other team in the league…
For more on the fifth starter, check out Joe Janish at Mets Today, who breaks down every candidate, and then some, while listing why each should or shouldn’t be considered.
To me it’s all about depth, Matt… Vargas may not be better than Sosa or Figueroa, but if having three guys with that similar ability (ERA in the high 4s) means you can give Duque even more time and you don’t have to rely on a Brian Lawrence for six guaranteed awful starts, it’s likely a worthwhile signing.
Totally agree with this statement. We traded away our minor league depth to get Santana and now we have an opportunity to restock with established, albeit, some unsightly pitchers. But Vargas is still going to give you 10x what we’ve gotten from Lawrence, Park, Lima, ect.
Slightly off topic, but on the way to work I heard Jayson Stark on ESPN radio say that the Braves have much better pitching depth than the Mets. He also said the Braves would win the NL east and that their lineup was just as good as the Mets and Phils. Yikes.
if you are talking about depth beyond the 12 man pitching staff, then yes. However, its pretty fair to say that we have the best rotation, or at least top 4:
Santana Pedro Perez Maine
Hudson Smoltz Glavine Hampton
Hamels Myers Moyer Kendrick
i mean the only spot where its close is with Pedro…Otherwise the Mets are hands down better then everyone else. Lets look at the back end of the pen
Wagner Heilman Sanchez
Soriano Moylan ???
Lidge Gordon Madson?
Closer on the back end of the pen, but I think overall we’ve got the best pen.
On offense, I do think the Phils and Braves are better, but the talent gap there is not nearly as wide.–very close, as mentioned by Stark.
we’ll see. I always love how these guys always point to age, experience and injury questions for the Mets but never for anybody else.
if the mets had two starters over 40, one who hadn’t pitched since 2005(!) and one who had a grand total of seven games of major league experience, the talking heads on ESPN would never let us hear the end of it. but since it’s the braves, everything’s going to come up roses for them; meanwhile the fact that the mets have to look through a lot of guys to find a fifth starter is a damning indictment of the organization - plus they have no grit or heart (remember, they collapsed!!!).
until the mets win a world series, they’ll never ever win with the national media. never.
The only thing that could possibly justify overlooking Smoltz and Glavine’s ages would be that neither have a history of injuries - they’ve both been absolute workhorses.
Thing is, that can’t last forever, and Smoltz picked up an injury this spring, so… yeah… I think the Braves might be forced to use that pitching depth far more than they’d want.
Read Matt’s post again. He’s worried about Vargas being guaranteed a roster spot, not about him taking a minor league contract.
Of course more depth is better, it’s just a question of making sure everyone knows & accepts their place in the organization.
“there is a lack of quality pitching in MLB, we need to accept it and just hope for the best - like more or less every other team in the league…”
The one caveat is–because the Mets plan on giving Pedro the extra day of rest and rarely skipping the #5, the Mets will probably give the #5 more starts than most other teams in the league. Pedro’s injury history could also mean a lot of starts from the #5. Quality pitching from the #5 could easily mean the difference between say 92 wins and 97 wins…
Still on the fence with this.
On one hand a 5th starter could be a non-issue if we skip him, but the Mets dont seem to do this, so he does become more prevalent on our team and having one who wins close to 10 games might be more critical for the Mets than other ball clubs.
But on the other hand, I read Gammons quote and it makes sense as well, ” Until they know what’s going to happen with El Duque, who for now is still throwing no higher than the low 80s, the fifth spot is in flux. But a fifth starter is usually a work in progress, and remember this — without Santana or Pedro and with Maine a work in progress — the Mets starters last year led the NL in wins and quality starts”
So how key is that 5th starter and his 8-10 wins for us?
Maine is NOT a “work in progress”.
I think he was saying that Maine was a work in progress last year which is fair considering his second half and the fact that it was his first full year. I agree that he should no longer be considered a work in progress (though Perez was last year and still may be).
I agree signing Vargas is a good idea for the depth factor
Sosa would be a good spot starter but I also like him in the pen
I say go for it and it also allows Duque to take his time, Pelfrey to hit AAA and Smith to hit AAA.
Thinking for the time being Sanchez goes to the DL and Stokes makes it for a few weeks
Someone will go down so I rather have Pelfrey, J.Vargas, Figueroa, Niese, Armas Jr as options in the minors for when that happens
I agree. I think the Mets need another starter for depth purposes. I think they initially need to decide what they will do with El Duque. Is he a starter when healthy? if he will be relegated to the bullpen all year, then they definitely need another starter. If El Duque will start when healthy, then they may not need another starter. Pelfrey, Figueroa, Niese, and Sosa in a pinch may be enough to get by.
If Brooklyn-born Nelson Figueroa is selected to pitch the 5th game of the 2008 season, I have a feeling that it will be difficult to replace him with El Duque or Pelfrey later in April or in May. If his recent performances is any indication (2007-2008), he will have quality starts in each of his games, past the 7th inning. In the Triple A Mexican League in 2007, Figueroa appeared in 19 games , all starts, with 153.2 innings - that’s an average of 8+ innings per game. He had 10 complete games, unheard of in the 21st century, majors or minors. Pitching for Dorados de Chihuahua (24 games out of first), in 2007 he went 8-6, 3.87 ERA. Starting the opening game of the Caribe World Series last month against the eventual WS champs from the Dominican Republic, pitching for Mexico, Figueroa pitched into the 10th inning (1 run, no decision) before he was taken out after giving up a 1 out single. He was voted the Caribe Series MVP. In October 2007, he was the China WS MVP after winning Games 1, 4, and 7. Once Figgy gets his first ML start as a Met, it will be difficult to replace him. It has to be his lifelong dream, growing up in Coney Island as a Mets fan.
I agree long term on Figeuroa’s durability, but (1) that was not against major league talent and (2) his arm has not been stretched out past 5 innings this spring and he is likely only to get 1 maybe 2 starts before El Duque basically demands to be back in the rotation. I don’t think it will be easy to replace him when you’re Omar and Willie. Figeuroa would have to pitch two shutouts to not be replace by El Duque if and when El Duque thinks he is ready to come back. Personally, I’d like to see El Duque go to the bullpen, but he has already made that clear that it ain’t happening.
Don’t kid yourself. The Carribean league is almost all MLB players. And the Mexican league is very good. This is not Japan,
Lima dominates the Mexican League every winter.
Jose Lima.
The Mexican AAA (summer) league is made up of guys who cant get invitations to big league camp or make AAA rosters in the IL or PCL. I would put it slightly above AA ball, but that is being generous…
The winter leagues are very mixed, and not nearly all MLB players at all. Its a mix of rookie ball, A ball, and higher players.
if you think winter leagues in mexico are good, you’re joking yourself. I’d say Japanese baseball is better. Jose Lima is an ace in Mexico, no, he is THE ace in Mexico. It’s pathetic.
All those innings since he last had any extended rest is more a reason to worry about him lasting all season long rather than a statement on durability.
I dont understand why he has been shifted over to relief work over the last week of ST. He should be starting today instead of Parnell, but he’s been pitching 1-2 innings of relief lately. Odd.
It’d only make sense if they were stretching out Sosa for starting and wanted Figgy as the long man, but they’re not doing that either so, yeah, weird.
If Vargas will sign for a minor league contract (no guaranteed roster spot), then I’m all about adding the depth of Vargas. Vargas has fallen off greatly and Figeuroa might be equal to Vargas in terms of ability at this moment. Neither would be the worst 5th starter in the league, but I don’t see getting more than 5 innings out of Figeuroa at this point so keep the bullpen warm.
Over the long term, I like Neise’s chances. He pitches aggressive and fast. He is the anti-Trachsel. But, he has yet to do it above A ball. He just turned 21 in October and I hate when the Mets rush players especially pitchers. So, let’s keep him out of the conversation for now. Let him build up some confidence by progressing him slowly against age appropriate talent Tiger Woods style — learning how to win when he doesn’t have his best stuff and how to dominate when he does. I wouldn’t even consider bringing up Neise until September 2009.
So, adding Vargas to the AAA roster would give us some much needed depth after the loss of Humber. because right now who do we have slated for the AAA rotation: Bostick, Armas, Pelfrey?, Jose Santaigo?
I agree, Vargas would be good to bring in for the AAA rotation. He should see the oportunity to be the Mets 5th starter as his reason to choose the Mets and the Mets clearly need the depth. Its a good match.
Jose Sanchez and Salvador Aguilar have been stuck at AA the last two years and would likely be the next guys in line to start for AAA. Jose Santaigo does not seem to be on Mets minor league camp rosters, though I recall a report that he signed a minor league deal. Not sure he is there or not…
Niese, Parnell, Eric Brown, Jake Ruckle, and Devaney or Stoner or someone else who worked at St. Lucie last year needs the AA time, so its unlikely Sanchez and Aguilar get too many AA starts.
as long as he doesnt want a guaranteed rotation spot then i guess the thought is …. why not
If Sosa is going to be in the rotation it seems odd that Register would be DFA. If Dauner is out that leaves two bullpen spots for Stokes/Joe Smith/Register and I cant see why they wouldnt just send Smith to AAA to keep all three of them.
start niese. he is the second coming of koozman.
I’m not sure that it’s any longer a question of whether a pitcher like Vargas is better than Figueroa or Pelfry. I feel like after having seen Pelfry it’s obvious that this young guy needs a full year at AAA to further develop the mental side of game and how to work out of jams. Then what about Figueroa? Well, if we sign Vargas, Figueroa becomes the backup that further insures that Pelfry will get the benefit of a full uninterrupted year at AAA which he could really benefit from. Make no mistake, Pelfry is the one with the high ceiling and is someone the organization has high hope for. All the more reason to give him every opportunity to improve his game.
That all makes a lot of sense. As far as talent and ability goes, Pelfrey has the most, but if he needs more time to develop the mental side of his game, then he should be given that opportunity. Vargas and Figueroa provide the Mets the luxury to be able to do that.
At the same time, though, with all the pitching questions that will be floating around next year, it would be nice to know if Pelfrey has the mental acumen to be able to make it in the bigs. Perhaps it’s not fair to him to demand that now, but it would certainly help with the future, considering that we don’t know if Perez or Pedro are going to come back.
I actually agree with Mike and the Mad Dog on this one. Let Pelfrey have his shot with 2 starts, and if it doesn’t work out, let him spend the rest of the year at AAA. Wash, rinse, and repeat this next year.
I’d hate to rush Niese and see him blow up in front of our faces, but from what I’ve heard, he’s pretty tough mentally, and very realistic. I don’t get the impression that giving him a shot would really hurt him.
Vargas is not a bad option, either, but I worry that he’d do the same as Lawrence or Lima or any of those guys. Not dependable.
Pelfrey looks like he needs more time in the minors, which is completely contrary to what I’ve been saying all off-season. I thought this guy was ready to come in and throw really well, to win maybe as many as 12 games. That doesn’t appear to be the case. not even a little.
And El Duque… well, I’m through expecting anything from him. If I were the GM, I release him now and move on. I know he was very good last year and all his playoff experience could be a real plus if we get that far, but he’s not to be counted on. You have to be suspect of a 40+ year old guy who’s changing his motion to avoid the pain in his foot. It doesn’t look good for Duque now, which honestly is too bad, because I appreciate his approach to the game and he is very entertaining.
So if it were me making the decisions, I try to sign Vargas, but not for too much money, and no guaranteed roster spot. If he doesn’t work out or can’t be signed, give Figueroa a try if he is still around. Should neither of those options prove effective, depending on how Pelfrey is pitching in AAA and how Niese is performing, call upon one of them. Sosa needs to stay in the pen, and Brian Stokes should not be on this team at all. I hope they can retain Register; I like his stuff.
That seems to make the most sense. I can’t say, obviously, if they’ll attempt to grab Vargas, but if they don’t, Figueroa has definitely earned at least a look.
I entirely agree with all of this (except that I have no informed opinion of Stokes). While a few prospects and clubs have benefited from jumping prospects, I think we’re a little too aggressive with it…let Niese be in the minors. Had high hopes for Pelf, and I hoped he’d win the job, but thought he’d need the year at AAA and go from there. I appreciate the work Ol Duque’s done for us, and that he’s still on the books, but I find it highly unlikely he’ll help us win games anymore. Of course I have no idea of what the negotiations were like at the time, these are reasons that signing Lohse would’ve been a good idea (but again, who knows what he was asking for from us).
Plug in Figs and let’s see what he can do for these first couple of 5 starts, give Ol Duque a look when he’s “healthy”, then cut him if (when) he turns out to be done.
duque needs to accept a diminshed role at this point. (and omar needs to accept this as well.) if he won’t cooperate, i think maybe he’s got to be released.
i like figueroa. i was high on vargas yesterday but i’m coming to my senses. pelfrey isn’t ready. what about anthony reyes? wasn’t there a ton of buzz about him yesterday?
Can we now please package Pelfrey (or not package him with anyone else) in a trade for Xavier Nady? I’m done with Big Pelph. I was never impressed by him and now he’s regressed, which is hard to imagine because he was so horrible last year (except for the Atlanta game which everyone like to bring up all the time since it’s the only good game he’s ever pitched for the Mets).
I’m not sure I’m ready to give on Pelfrey, considering how much talent he has and the good stuff he’s capable of throwing.
What reason is there to think that the Pirates would bite?
Talk about selling low… Pelfrey’s stock at the moment is rock-bottom. Were you in a rush to sell Bear Sterns at $2 too?
Is there a reason Cerrone feels the need to say that NO other outside option is better than what the Mets have now??
Yeah, Claudio Vargas, an admittedly mediocre pitcher, is not better than a 50-year-old with a bad foot and who can’t throw harder than I can, a youngster who has zero balls and a guy who hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2004.
But yeah…let’s not stock up if we can.
BIg difference this year with Duque, and being around for the PS.
They don’t actually have a place for him.
Figuring that a team is only using 4 starters, and he is only looking at the 5 hole, he wouldn’t (assuming the rest stay healthy and have normal years), Duque isn’t going to bump anyone, and ould you see him shifting to the pen fro the palyoffs (assuming, of course, the Mets make it!)
His only purpose right now is to try and milk some starts out of him in the 5 hole before he breaks down again. If there were other options doing the job, his sideshow becomes completely unneeded.
SO, IMO, he starts on the DL, and if he is pitching decently after that, he gets a shot. If he works out, great. If he just totally sucks, but feels OK, then they have to consider cutting him. If he pulls up lame again, stick him on the DL, and forget him.
if this is the case, and it’s not a bad plan, then we should be signing freddy garcia to bolster the rotation later on.