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…entering the season the one area of the Mets i was not concerned about was the starting rotation, and on the surface they have pitched well, but stressful innings and the inability to go deep into games is leaving a mark on the bullpen early in the season…
Through the first 19 games the Mets starting rotation has pitch 110.1 innings, allowed 46 walks and are throwing 3.88 pitches per plate appearance. All worse than the National League average.
…although they have pitched to a 3.34 era, third best in the nl, Mets starters have only pitched through the seventh inning on five occasions this season and 60% of those have come from Johan Santana starts…
…on too many occasions this season the bullpen has had to bail starters out and their already showing signs of fatigue…many will blame Willie Randolph for pulling the likes of John Maine and Oliver Perez too quickly and not giving them a chance to get through a tough late inning situation, especially when their pitch counts haven’t reach 100, and i agree to an extent, but high pitch counts early in games has lead to late inning situations in which rescue becomes necessary…
…despite it being early in the season, these excessive high-pitch count innings and the starters inability to pitch beyond the sixth inning is taxing the bullpen and as we saw in the second half of last season, too many early season relief appearances spell disaster and is something worth monitoring…
I fear the tax on the bullpen is going to kill this team (if Delgado’s bat doesnt do it first). Mets are the only team in MLB with three pitchers in the top 20 in terms of relief appearances.
Granted the starters have something to do with this, but do we have to use 7 pitchers every night? Even if a guy throws to one batter he is still warming up which taxes the arms. Painful. We need Jesso O. to come out of retirement.
It does not matter how deep or how good the starter is, if, the team cant score. Look at Santan, he pitched a gem and lost by a score of 2-1. That was awful and should NEVER happen. when a pitcher gives yo ua deep game and holds the other team to zero runs you have to win that game for him. We could have Seaver, Santan, Gooden, Pedro (1999) and Cone in th erotation and would still not win enough games to make the playoffs. We need to score runs, its simple. Good pitching beats good hitting and bad hitting allows good pitching to be beat. I am disgusted by the play of the team and the lack of clutch hitting. when we have the bases loaded with less than 2 outs we should ALWAYS score at least 1 run AT LEAST!!! Willie needs to shake tings up a little and move peole around to get people hot. It is NOT early, its getting late. We heard the excuses last year and are sick of it. Do something NOW before it really is to late.
The obvious solution seems like, willie has to let his starters go a little longer. They MUST learn to get out of there own jams, if the pitch counts are low, let them try. He’s killing the bullpen and they aren’t exactly producing either, so if the runs are still scoring, might as well let the starters go a little longer and save the bullpen. Something has to give and something has to change and at this point i feel like the best chance of success is with the starters not the bullpen.
You are exactly right and i will take it just a bit further. Pitch counts need to be less of an issue than one Mr. Randolph likes to think they are. I fail to believe that pitchers need to be babied as much as they are. Are you telling me that pitchers from twenty years ago were strong manly men and that now with better trainers and better facilities and better coaches etc etc etc that we can get less out of them? Baloney! John Maine throws the ball as smooth and easy as can be and all he can do is a hundred pitchers. When Pedro comes back we have 6 capable pitchers and when Duque comes back we have seven, so if someones arm is a little dead we cant give him a day off? Willie needs to forget pitch counts and watch the game, or better yet start counting the pitches the bullpen throws cuz warming up and pitching every day is fifty pitches a day for those guys too. Make the starters work, thats their job.
John Maine can do only a hundred pitchers????? Make that a hundred pitches. Only Anna Benson would try to do a hundred pitchers.
I think the problem is we’re in too many close games, and Willie is using his relievers like he wants to win all those games. If the offense puts up some bigger numbers later on in games, or just more often, you don’t have to use 2-3 relievers in a stressful inning to get through it, making sure you have the lead. Build bigger leads with the offense more often, and this problem would be alleviated. I think the starting pitching has been fine, but its just a given, the more you use your bullpen, the more likely you’re closer to them giving up runs again. They all will have era’s above 1.00, so thats just how it goes.
This is a good point; most of the Mets past 7 games have been close (the last two games were blowouts, but blew up later in the game and Willie was managing to win before it got out of hand.)
I also think the original post is a little misleading. It is true, Mets starters are 12th in the league in innings pitched, but they have played fewer games than anyone in the NL.. The Mets starters are actually 6th in the league in Innings/start, which isn’t great but is better than average.
Furthermore, Willie has gone overboard in playing the platoon advantage (which is funny cause in the past he seemingly never did it). It isn’t the innings the pen has worked as much as the appearances everyone has made. All 5 bullpen guys (minus Wagner, who has a regulated workload) have appeared in at least 9 of the teams 19 games. That has to stop.
I agree we are killing the bull pen, I think the whole ML mentality of the magic 100 pitch theory needs to be looked at. It won’t kill these guys to go a little deeper in the game. But if they hit 100 pitch mark and allow a base runner they are yanked. Let these guys earn their money.
This is the point I made the other day and I agree with you 100%.
(At the risk of sounding like old man Keith Hernandez) Pitchers used to be allowed to work out of jams. Sometimes they failed, sometimes they succeeded. But these days, if that jam is after the 5th inning, you’re gone as a starter, no matter how well you had been pitching. It’s frustrating, silly, and frankly, makes for less entertaining baseball viewing, in my humble opinion.
Look, its a loose loose situation for Willie. If he pulls the starter the fans complaine that he pulled him to early and if he leaves him in and th eother team scores and wins the game, then the fans bitch that he should have taken him out? I dont care what he does or who pitches as long as we get the BIG W. At th eend of the season thats all the counts. Its better to work th ebugs and kinks out now, before, we have a close run like last season. Lets hang close and when everything is working , roll over the other teams and take the division.
that would be lose-lose.
I agree that the results are what matter, but for all of the Reyes bashing that went on at the end of last season, it was a worn-down rag tag bullpen that coughed up the lead in games, and in the standings.
We’re seeing the same thing unfold this season.
Starting pitching is the last thing I am concerned about. With the exception of Pelfrey, I think they will start to make it deeper into games and average 6+ innings per start.
Figueroa would have lasted much longer if not for 2 bad defensive plays behind him (one REALLY bad).
Perez will do his normal thing, hopefully gain a little more confidence and fight through situations.
Maine will definitely gain control and last longer, he has had some bad luck with facing great pitchers from other teams and has put too much stress on himself.
Santana doesn’t require worrying.
How about we consistently put up 5 runs a game, that is a great place to start.
Exactly…score some friggin’ runs and the bullpen woes will diminish. Pitching with a 4 run lead the starters can be more aggressive and the opposing team will be pressing more.
Scoring runs makes the starters job easier.
After 19 games, the Mets’ starters’ stats are skewed by Pedro’s early departure (4th inning), and 2 or 3 bad games. Willie’s still too quick with the hook, and inconsistent with the pen, though.
Also, I think he’s got to double-switch more. There have been a couple of obvious ones that he’s missed — like Duaner in the 6th the other day…
actually Pelfrey and Figueroa both went 7 IP against the Nationals. The numbers are actually skewed in the Mets favor because they played a bad team when it was down.
5 2/3 IP, 97 pitches average in the 14 starts by Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, and Figueroa. Its not really a small sample anymore.
when is duaner going to take back the 8th inning. joe smith and (felciano or schoenweiss) for the 7th. enough is enough with heilman and sosa. they need to go
I’d like to see a few more good outings from Sanchez (along with more struggling from Heilman) before making that switch. Whether you like it or not, Heilman is a big part of the bullpen, and over the course of the season, amounts to one of the better set-up guys in the league. You cannot alienate him by giving Sanchez the 8th inning right away, because as I mentioned, Aaron is a key cog to the pen.
I agree with Jim. These pitchers have to be able to go 7 innings. Why would you spend all this money on pitchers to throw 5 innings, and trusting the game from the 6th inning to the 8th inning with middle relievers. Let the starters go 7, giving the bullpen 2 innings of work. Make these pitcher earn their 10’s of millions of dollars. I cannot stand it and it happens far too often when a starter is going well and they pull them after 6 and the bullpen blows it up. Leave Starter’s In Longer!
The problem is a combination of no bats and Willie micromanaging, which is a direct result of no bats.
We keep getting to a mid-5th/6th, 90 pitches, 1-1 score game. What to do? Willie seems to know that we can’t count on the bats, so he puts in one reliever for this guy, one for these two, one for this intential walk. On paper it isn’t a terrible idea. But then, you have guys being pulled without giving up a run (OP), or 2-5 hit, less than 2 runs (Maine, Pelf, Figgy). On paper that is absurd.
If we were in the middle of the 6th, 90 pitches, and the score was 5-1 Mets, there would be no reason to pull the SP and start the micromanaging show.
Until the Mets’ bats starting giving Willie the ability to trust the relievers in longer stretches, and the relievers some kind of cushion, this is going to continue.
Anyone else think a major problem in our pen is that it is filled with failed starters? If a Sosa or a Heilman give up a run or 2 in an inning over a start, its OK. When they give up 1-2 in relief, it is devastating. We don’t have relievers with killer instinct, other than Sanchez and Wagner.
Actually, I’ll add Schoenweiss to that list.
“Anyone else think a major problem in our pen is that it is filled with failed starters? If a Sosa or a Heilman give up a run or 2 in an inning over a start, its OK. When they give up 1-2 in relief, it is devastating.”
No, because just about every bullpen in baseball is filled with failed starters.
Heilman has been a reliever for 3 years now; you don’t think he has figured that out? Plus, Heilman was at his best as a reliever directly after he left the rotation.
That has been an issue for the mets but this i dont think you can blame willie too much. We all know OP is good for 4 innings but after that who knows what you will get and has a tendancy to explode. Maine’s problem is he throws too many pitches in the early going to get into a groove and before you know it hes at 100 at the 5th inning, a problem hes had since last year. Willie is almost forced to pull them out in the Interest of keeping our team in the game. What the big problem i think is using the bullpen effectivly to not tax arms, putting relief pitchers in the perfect position to execute and come away with good results. That is what is undermining the bullpen and thus burns it out. The offense also does not build a big enough lead to leave the starters longer as well, they play mostly coming from behind. While the results for heilman are not great i think he is just not being used effectivly. I think with Sanchez coming back and hopefully to his old form, it will take less of a strain against the bullpen. Willie has got to stop experimenting with his bullpen by putting relievers out there to “see” what they are capable of. These guys need roles and willie does not use that style of coaching and that turns into the burnouts and negative outcomes we get today.
Can someone please tell me why this magic number is 100? Is it because the clickers only have 2 digits? Is it because it is a round number? It all seems so arbitrary to me. A “good” average inning is 15-18 pitches. Meaning, that if you divide 100 by 18, you get…guess what…about 5 2/3. That means good pitchers are being pulled after that time. It just doesn’t make sense.
I think the magic number is 100, because as you mention, it’s a round easy number. However, I disagree that a good average inning is 18 pitches, that is way too high. More like 15.
Anyway, I think idea of pitch counts is good; starters should have their workloads regulated, and no matter what people say, there were tons of pitchers who got hurt and washed out in the past because of overuse. (Sandy Koufax, for starters.) However, I think the pendulum has swung too far in the direction of lowering the work load. I don’t think anyone is saying pitchers should be throwing 130 pitches a start, but I don’t think 100 needs to be the magic number. If the workload was focused around getting starters to throw around 110 every night, I really don’t think it would be that much of a problem. Getting to the 125, 130 range may be dangerous, but I think 110 would be fine.
With our young starters, lets start a trend and give them 110 pitches. This is really ridiculous, there were tons of guy that pitched in the ’70’s and ’80’s, who regularly went 9 innings with 125-135 pitches and pitched well into their 40’s with no Tommy John surgeries or rotator cuff blow outs. If those injuries are going to happen, they will happen and not because of 10 more pitches a game.
The problem is todays player is a risk investment. They are paid alot more money than yesterdays player and used with alot more caution. That is why they all have pitch counts and marched out to the mound after five days rest. Gone are the days of Mike Norris throwing 130 pitch complete agmes every fourth day. I hate it, but this is the world we have created.
Yes, and it appears the biggest item at risk these days is the victory.
Plus, expansion has led to a diluted talent pool
agree, let the SPs earn their money and actaully use their arm. go 7, then use Dirty, smith, and feliciano and Wagner. But a lot can be solved if this team just starts hitting consistently. HoJo should invite Keith down from the booth to give pointers
The thing that get’s really frustrating is we don’t let the Starters go long enough, we then pull them for a reliever and we ride them to long. Great if they have their stuff working, but if you come in the game with a guy on first proceed to load the bases then give up a grand slam that is too late. I don’t know what the answer is but I don’t think my blood pressure can take a whole year of this.
yeah if the relievers is just going to come in and let men on base, i’m sure the starter that was in could probably do the same if not better. LET the Starters PITCH.
lets start a new chant if Willie comes out to get a Starter too early…LET HIM PITCH, LET HIM PITCH, LET HIM PITCH
I’m curious to know what our starting pitchers foul ball rate it. I can’t be the only one to notice the unbelievable amount of foul balls our starters give up. Especially Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey.
‘I’m curious to know what our starting pitchers foul ball rate it.’
i am right with you on that one bill.
maybe i am more cognizant of it because out batters never seem to be able to prolong the AB….
I’m just as curious about the relievers…
The inning that Heilman almost got out of, the two strikeouts that he did get were both long AB’s because Heilman couldnt find a put away pitch and the batters were fouling them off like crazy.
On Heilman’s bad days he seems to have 30+ pitch innings with alot of fouls. Sosa gets his slider fouled off a lot because everyone knows it is coming. On and on…
i’m the many you referred to, mike.
4/2 perez 6 IP 0R 93 pitches
4/8 perez 5 2/3 IP 0R 94 pitches
4/10 maine 6+ IP 1R 90 pitches
4/11 figueroa 6 IP 2R 85 pitches
and this is ignoring all of pelfrey’s starts (fine, protect him, but you can’t protect everyone), a couple starts where i thought santana was pulled too early, and the ridiculous decision to pull figueroa yesterday in a game that was lost on the lineup card.
willie is managing like he is scared of losing his job, which rightfully he should be. but he has no incentive not to burn his bullpen now if he doesn’t win enough to have his job later. he is afraid of leaving a starter in too long because he would be crucified for sitting on his hands if the starter blew it. at least this way when he parades the whole bullpen into every game he can say “well i managed by the book, just didn’t work out, i trust my guys” when overworked heilman and sosa blow yet another game.
I disagree with Nichols on a couple of accounts. A. ERA is a good indication of how well pitchers are throwing. Its one of the few statistics in baseball that gives a somewhat accurate depiction of that players (or teams) performance. Secondly, the starters have for the most part given the mets a chance to win in every game. It has been the pen that has ruined these opportunities. The other day, Cohen on SNY mentioned that it was the first time in a while that 3 pitchers stretched into the 7th inning. Then the next day, another pitcher did it (can’t remember the exact order). In this day and age, its the managers and gms and owners responsible for the pitchers getting pulled after 5 and 6. Only a handful of pitchers: webb, Halladay, etc, are given the liberty to keep in games. Its not as if we couldn’t have kept Figuroa in the game yesterday. Granted he gave up a hit to start the 6th, but in no way did he look gassed in my opinion. So, i think for Nichols et all, the ball is in the managers and owners court (to bring in another sport), not the starters–they have pitched well.
glad to see someone writing about this … i would much rather see willie give ollie and maine a chance to finish 6…. see if they can reach back for something extra and at least go 6 …. i understand willie was nervous a few times about ollie having “that type of inning where it gets away from him” … but we have to give him a chance to mature and not pull him at the slightest sign of danger
copied from other post as its more on topic here
“Mets starters not named Santana (or Pedro) are averaging 5 2/3 IP per start which is an indication of thier poor resolved to not battle later into games. However they are only averaging 97.4 pitcher per start which indicates Willie is too quick with the hook at times. The starters arent helping by averaging over 17 pitcher per inning (Figueroa is exempt on this) and forcing Willie to think he has to make a move earlier.
It all adds up, the starters giving in too easily, Willie’s quick hooks, and the ineffectiveness of the relievers forcing multiple guys to be used per inning are all making the pen worse than it really is right now. “
I don’t remember how many times I used to hear Tom Seaver say “I got into a little trouble, but then I got my second wind and finished the game”
Today, none of these guys knows what a second wind is.
This all really boils down to the lack of consistency on offense. The pitchers never have any breathing room. Willie has to have a short leash when a pitcher starts to get into trouble, because he can’t feel comfortable that the offense can bail the team out with only 3 or less innings to play.
I believe the offense will come around, but I’ve now jumped ship on Delgado. I kept believing he’d turn it around, but even when his avg was decent early in the year, he still didn’t look good. I’m not sure what the solution is given the team’s lack of depth at the position and Delgado’s albatross of a contract . . . but something needs to change. Here’s hoping Delgado starts mashing again.
IMO, Willie does need to try and stretch another inning sometimes. Whether it is from challenging a guy to work through a little trouble (a good thing, if they succeed!), or just stretching the magic 100 a bit, try to get some more 7 inning jobs out of them (or god forbid, 8 or even all 9!)
2nd issue is going overboard with L/R switches. Maybe he does read the blog, and wants to make sure he won’t get roasted if Schoe pitches poorly to a Rh batter? Especially early in the game (like the 6th) you can’t burn 3 players.
So, either use guys longer (like a full inning), or Omar needs to make some moves. If there are 3 OOGYs in the pen, you got a problem (frankly, even 1 is too much!)
Oh, and Sosa has returned to the form he showed in Atl (that got him released). Time to find a new rehab project.
I dont have as big a problem with the switching so long as we know these reliever can go 90 games, 75 IP which I think most of them can.
But having it be an everyday occurance is a problem. They need Heilman to pitch full innings, and Sanchez to get more full innings. And they need Feliciano to get someone out sometime soon.
a look at some of last years pitch totals reveals some points…
Mets starters routinely threw 105-115 pitches last year including Maine and Perez.
4/27/07: Perez 7-120. He won his next start with 98 pitches, then had a rough one in SF 4 2/3-84
5/23/07: Perez 7-122. he went 7 his next two starts, throwing 98 and 103 pitches. The only went 5 in Detroit (mets were awful that weekend)
6/8/07: Sosa 8-116 in Detroit. Cant say much about this one, he was effecient so he stayed in. Plus they had the DH. Two starts later he went 3 1/3-76 against the Twins (vs. Santana shutout)
6/15/07: Perez 7 1/3-117 in Yankee Stad. followed with 5 1/3-110, and 6 1/3-113 and a stint on the DL with a tired back. This should be considered overuse, but 115 in one start is normal use, imo.
7/5/07: Maine 7 2/3-121. Mets pen had been completely abused in Philly and Colorado, Maine stepped up big time in the game in Houston. The all star break followed and he had a poor start on seven days of rest.
8/14/07: Duque 6-130. WOW! way to kill the old man Willie… and this was after an off day. He made two more effective starts, then was ‘done’ for the year.
8/21/07: Maine 5 2/3-118. followed by 5 2/3-111, and 7-112. He wasnt good for the rest of the year until his last start.
9/16/07: Perez 4 2/3-118 against the Phillies. He went 8-102 his next time out, then got smacked around by the Marlins two days before Glavine did.
Willie had a lot longer leash with his starters because he had lost faith in the pen by June. So I would imagine we will see a similar pattern this year.
Using a starter for 115-120 pitches is ok, but doing it three starts in a row is probably asking for trouble. Just ask Dusty Baker or Roy Halliday. Actually dont ask Dusty, he still hasnt realized.
Heilman, Sosa, and Smith are all on pace for 100+ appearances if you go by days of the season rather than games. So that factors in the off days that will be less plentiful later.
Now I’m late for work…
You know…I’m really not all for this high pitch count thing with pitchers…especially the young ones….
If Maine and Perez are only giving up 2-3 runs through 6 innings with a pitch count of 100 or more, let them go 7 innings….If they get to 115 or 120 through 7 innings and the Mets are still in the game, thats not a bad outing at all….Let them freaking pitch for God Sakes!!!
its a no win situation at times. if willie leaves these guys in when their control is faultering he will be ripped for leavin a pitcher in too long. personally, id side with those guys who say it would be a different story if the offense was actually puttin up runs. you manage to win and in a close game you dont want to give up a lead. it could be that willie, like a lot of us, didnt expect almost every game to be a nailbiter into the 8th every nite. when that aint happening, it may very well even out, as willie said.
im in all favor of stretching out starters who are pitching well and i wont second guess willie if he does that unless a pitcher is obviously done …. i actually loved the fact that he let Johan start the 8th against philly … unlike most of you playing monday morning qb
get thru the 7th inning? what? how many NL pitchers average 7 innings or more per outing?
the starting rotation has completed the 6th inning much more often than last year. and we just had a string of games with more innings by starters than the mets have had since the early days of glavine.
it hasn’t been perfect, but the bullpen hasn’t been taxed. willie has used guys situationally as he’s supposed to. we can’t blame sosa’s terrible performance on the starters. he’s our long reliever. and heilman has been hot and cold. we need consistency from our setup guy.
but unless the bats get some rallys going, it’s going to be a long and frustrating season.