Comments on: postGame: Mets 5 D’Backs 2

By: MudvilleNine

MudvilleNine — Mon, 05 May 2008 23:06:51 +0000

Church will see more fastballs because of Reyes being on base than anything else. If Reyes isnt on base, Church wont see pitches from a righthander who’ll still try to get him to swing at his pitch since he does strike out a lot. A lefty is going to go right at him because he’s had troubles against lefties in the past and of course for your reason that Wright is behind him. As for Castillo, the lifetime BA and OBP is higher than Church’s, which means to me that he has a better chance at hitting Reyes in from second than Church over the long haul. Thing is Castillo is a number two hitter for a team that needs to hit-and-run a lot, and thats not this team, so I wouldn’t say he has to be the two hitter. But again I say, either way works but since they’re winning with Church second you dont mess with it.

By: iamatwork

iamatwork — Mon, 05 May 2008 20:32:37 +0000

I’ve said for 3 years now that Beltran is a #2 hitter with power. That’s all he is.

By: iamatwork

iamatwork — Mon, 05 May 2008 20:31:32 +0000

The key is not making mistakes and capitalizing on the other team’s mistakes. Today, the Dbacks made more mistakes and the mets did a better job of capitalizing on them. That’s all it takes to win.

By: Mingo

Mingo — Mon, 05 May 2008 19:36:37 +0000

The problem is the opposing team can pitch to Castillo. He poses little threat with a man on base. The only way he moves guys over is on ground balls to the right side and bunting. His odds of getting a hit are not better than anyone else’s For that matter, Tom Glavine could have been a two hole hitter.
Church poses more problems. He has to be pitched to with Wright behind him. This will open up more crooked innings than with Castillo whose natural inclination is to simply do what it takes to move Reyes over.

By: MudvilleNine

MudvilleNine — Mon, 05 May 2008 15:30:07 +0000

Maybe his stolen base rate went down because his OBP dropped like a rock. The best chance of Reyes scoring is by getting him in scoring position which means letting him steal. Church really isn’t taking pitches when Reyes is on. The only way then Church is going to drive him in from first is by getting an extra base hit. He’ll hit between 40 to 50 doubles and maybe 25 homeruns, thing is how many of those will be with Reyes on base? But then again you can balance that out by how many extra base hits Reyes will get when only a single from Church is needed. Then again, Castillo will have a slightly better average so a single from him is just as likely to score Reyes. Listen, both ways have their merits but as I’ve said, you go with the way thats working and thats with Church second. Look when you see the so called mathematics, you end up constructing a high school lineup. Best hitter up first, your cleanup hitter second, and your speedy, high OBP hitter up 9th. Thats how I made mine up and won many a game with it so I guess I was ahead of my time. But I dont see them batting Wright leadoff, Beltran second, and Reyes 9th.

By: Another Matt

Another Matt — Mon, 05 May 2008 13:29:33 +0000

I was thinking this over the weekend… I see Owings heading over to the AL and DH’ing between starts on the mound.

By: Another Matt

Another Matt — Mon, 05 May 2008 13:28:41 +0000

Delgado’s OBP is way short of Beltran’s so it’s not fair to say he’s doing better.

He is still doing way better than Ryan Howard though.

By: Another Matt

Another Matt — Mon, 05 May 2008 13:25:24 +0000

Church has recently started taking a lot more first pitches.

The math all boils down to whether you believe one of the more controversial results of sabremetrics – those guys say the stolen base is a bad move, and you shouldn’t do it.

It’s pretty tough to work out whether that’s true because you’re gonna have to normalize for the difference between the AL (where they don’t steal much but have DHs and therefore score more runs) and the NL.

Point is, Sabremetricians in general don’t like small-ball, they like reaching base and power. Castillo in 2nd is a small-ball move predicated on the idea that Reyes is gonna be able to get on 1st, steal 2nd, and Castillo can advance him to 3rd with less than 2 out.

The math might work overall (although as I say, it’s not universally accepted), but you can’t apply statistics to a single team’s lineup.

By: gameball

gameball — Mon, 05 May 2008 12:37:45 +0000

The best #2 hitter for this team is a .300 hitting Luis Castillo. We haven’t seen that Castillo so far this year.

By: Mingo

Mingo — Mon, 05 May 2008 11:41:25 +0000

How is Reyes more likely to score a run. That is all that matters. By hitting the ball on the ground to the right side and getting one out, or by hitting the ball in the gap.
With Church in the two spot, you have a better chance of scoring Reyes. Math has nothing to do with it, it only matters how well this team stacks up.
Plus, for all the stolen bases Castillo may allow Reyes to get he also keeps him from getting some. He fouls off a lot of balls.
If you want some math, Reyes, stolen base rate has gone down with Castillo batting second.

With Reyes at the top, the only reason you can have for putting Castillo at number two is to move Reyes over. Reyes really doesn’t need help doing that he can do it on his own. Hence, a slugger helps this team more at the two hole than Castillo does.
This offense also is better with Castillo in the 8 spot. We saw why yesterday when the Mets manufactured a run out of that spot.