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Over at Metsgeek, Jeff Mathews analyzes Mike Pelfrey’s performance this season using a variety of statistics, including the very impressive use of Pitch-F/X data.
Based on the data Mathews believes Pelfrey should try pitching backwards, writing:
“Right now, Pelfrey is throwing a first-pitch fastball more than 80% of the time. Instead, maybe he should try to get ahead of the hitters with a get-me-over slider, and then finish the ‘em off with that moving fastball. I mean, why not? Whatever he’s doing now isn’t working, so why not try something different?”
…i’ve followed pelfrey’s career since he was drafted by the Mets and i’m still unsure why he abandoned his curve ball that he used successfully in college and his early stint in the Mets minor league system…
…that being said, i feel the same way about pelfrey as I do with Oliver Perez, i have no idea what to expect from start-to-start…
..it is interesting to note, pelfrey is 2-0 with a 1.50 era with Brian Schneider behind the plate, as opposed to 0-2 with a 8.34 era without schneider…so, with schneider back i’ll be curious to see how he pitches in his next start…
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As is common with the Mets pitching development system, they’ve been trying to fix something that was not broken. Pelf should have stuck with what worked for him earlier in his career, just like you said.
He cannot locate his fastball. Most of the time he is all over the place. No off speed pitch can help that.
Thank you. Thank you.
Exactly. Being able to locate the fastball is the cornerstone of pitching. Not to mention those curve balls that devastate at lower levels get clobbered and how against the majors. He just needs to sharpen the fastball and the rest will follow.
That’s a great point about Brian Schneider, Mike. Schneider knows all about pitching backwards and his plate savvy has likely been sorely missed by Pelfrey. We’ll find out soon enough.
Also a good point. We’ll get a better read on Pelf after pitching two or three games with Schneider catching. Nothing against Cassanova, he’s done a nice job filling in.
the jacket pushed pelfrey to drop the curve for the slider.
In his early success in the minors, he struck out more than a batter per inning. That trend has completely gone in the other direction as the jacket had him scrap the curveball and focus more on trying to be Chien Ming Wang instead of the power pitcher he was in college that got him here.
He dumped the curve for the same reason Glavine dumped his splitter before he made it to the majors - big league hitters wouldn’t be fooled by it and wouldn’t swing at it.
There’s a big difference between college and the majors.
How do you know? He was never really allowed to use it. He should have at least been given a chance to prove that his curve is (or is not) ML ready. He he wasn’t because of the Guru Jacket.
In college many hanging curve balls are either hit foul or totally missed by inexperienced hitters. MLB hitters are going to put a hanging curve ball in the bleachers.
Great point. How do we know the curve was not good enough to get out major league hitters…if he never got to use it against major league hitters? In my opinion a coaches job is to take a players best talents and maximize them. If Pelf had a curve that he was comfortable with and that had gotten hitters out at every level that he had been to so far, why in the holy hell did we have him scrap it before it ever got hit? As for the comment about Kazmir topping out four miles an hour faster than Kazmir, that must mean he throws 101 cuz i have seen pelf top out at 97. The next four starts for this young man are huge….if he does well with schneider behind the plate then we just might have something special. If he continues to be a head case, well then…he’s a head case. In that event hurry back pedro, we miss you. Too bad we cant put Figgy’s head and grit into pelf’s body…we would have one really good pitcher!
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…i’ve followed pelfrey’s career since he was drafted by the Mets and i’m still unsure why he abandoned his curve ball that he used successfully in college and his early stint in the Mets minor league system…
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Because the Jacket continued to think he had transcended pitching itself and told Pelf to stop throwing his curve - the same curve that was one of the bigger reasons he was drafted by the Mets.
The same Guru Jacket that didn’t like Kazmir’s stuff and didn’t think he could adjust his pitches to the Guru Jacket’s liking - hence the Zambrano trade.
I’m starting to really tire of Peterson. On one hand, just like Pelfrey seems to be struggling, Kazmir probably would’ve struggled in this system too. Peterson tries to adapt his pitchers to him, rather than the other way around, the way it should be.
I heard..I think it was Darling, say something about the Mets being a ‘change-up’ team, saying that they make everyone work on that. I don’t like this, he should be taking the pitchers strengths and working with them, but then, he never pitched, so he might not have that knowledge.
The same with Pelfrey, maybe Peterson doesn’t know how to teach him to master the curveball, so he dropped it. A commenter above mentioned the college/MLB difference, but that’s bunk. He could work on pushing the curveball to the next level after college, it’s calling growing, and all players do it.
I think it might be time for a pitching coach change, despite the Changeup mentality meshing well with Santana.
I’m with you 100%. Pelfrey’s stuff is just as good as Kazmir’s. Different mentality, though.
Pelfrey would be showing that were he in a different organization.
Pelf’s stuff is nowhere near as good as Kazmir. Just the fact that Scott is left handed makes all the diff in the world never mind the fact that he tops out @ about 4 more mph than Pelf. WORST TRADE EVER! If I ever meet Jim Duquette I’m gonna vomit on his shoes.
Kazmir was traded because he is small and has a violent arm motion. Peterson didn’t feel that Kazmir would be able to stay away from arm injuries and would spend most of his career on the DL.
Pelfrey’s stuff is not nearly as good as Kazmir’s. Never was.
Peterson was a minor league pitcher that topped out in Class A.
yeah. that’s the same as not pitching in terms of coaching major leaguers.
Are you suggesting that you need to have pitched in the major leagues in order to be a successful major league pitching coach?
so Peterson doesn’t know how to teach a guy a curveball? Ever see Peterson’s work in Oakland with a lefty curveballer who won a cy young award? I love how fans act like they know more then a well renowned pitching coach just because a guy is struggling. Is peterson supposed to make pelfrey pitch better? sure, he’s supposed to HELP, but he can’t go out there and throw strikes for Pelfrey. As for the guy who said one of the reasons the Mets drafted Pelfrey was his curveball, thats just a lie, not even close to the truth. People are making all sorts of assumptions, but one thing is true, Pelfrey NEVER had great control of that “slurve” he once had. He was a fastball pitcher in college, and should be now, if he could locate it.
No, I wasn’t saying that, just wondering. You’re right about the history of course. I don’t know a lot about pitching and pitches and who throws what, I leave that to these guys. The idea that they may be trying to fit all pitchers into the same mold disturbs me a little. Also I feel Peterson is a little too analytical, and while I think numbers are important to an extent, you also have to have a feel for the pitcher. Also his insistant on pitch counts (which is more a MLB issue than just him) bothers me. He has no problem babying guys and I wish they’d just let these guys fly sometimes.
i don’t think he’s ever going to be that good without a quality breaking pitch. he does not have the fastball command he needs to live off of it.
also i wonder why this organization treats pelfrey and the other one-pitch wonder heilman so differently. i’d rather see heilman starting and pelfrey in the pen.
finally: sorry but i called the sample size cops on that schneider comment.
As far as the Schneider comment, one of the reasons it is brought up is because in Pelfrey’s post game interview after he pitched that 7 inning game which brought his record to 2-0, he specifically credited Schneider for coaching him through the outing. Yes it is a small sample size, but the fact is Pelfrey specifically gave credit to Schneider.
Because Pelfrey was given a hefty bonus and a lot of hype to be a starting pitcher for the Mets.
It’s amazing when you look at the list of criticisms for Willie, Omar and Peterson, the common thread uniting them is a certain degree of stubborness and an inability to be decisive on the fly.
wasn’t heilman a first round pick, too?
Yes, he was #18 overall. Wright was picked after him, in the sandwich round between the first and second. Wright was the #30 something overall pick.
Heilman was not a product of this administration. So my guess is there’s less of a desire to see him succeed.
Also he didn’t sign for record money like Pelfrey.
Not defending this either. I don’t know what to think of Heilman anymore. I still think he’s a better asset on this team working as one of the best set-up men in baseball rather than a 4th or 5th starter, but if he’s not effective in a relief role anymore, maybe it’s time he gets a change.
Or he could just literally turn around and pitch backwards. You know, just throw balls into the gaps. Cut out the middle man.
I keeed, I keeed…
Seriously, though, I think Pelfrey’s gonna make a solid reliever someday (hopefully for the Mets). I mean, it worked in Boston. And it’s worked for former Mets (Isringhausen, Dotel for a while). Who knows, though. Maybe something will click and he’ll be able to get past the 5th consistently. I just think he’d be most effective in shorter stints.
Or how about this, Pelf?
THROW STRIKES!
[the above statement applies to OP as well].
see…no stats, no number crunching, no calculators. Problem solved.
If memory serves, Ollie’s problems this week stemmed from throwing way too many strikes, rather than bouncing sliders in the dirt as was asked of him by his catcher.
Good call. I shall edit my post:
Or how about this, Pelf?
EXECUTE YOUR PITCHES!
[the above statement most deffinitely applies to OP as well].
see…no stats, no number crunching, no calculators. Problem solved.
Well done. *clap, clap*
He should use a bigger mouth guard to freak out batters before he throws the heat. Maybe lick from the wrists up instead of just soaking his hands in salvia. Maybe he can get better movement.
Perhaps a mouth guard in the colors of the day’s uniform.
That’s a great idea!
He doesn’t throw that get-me-over slider because…he can’t get it over.
He has become entirely predictable, and ML hitters are sitting on that fastball. The book on Pelf is short and sweet.
He has to be able to throw 3 pitches for strikes to be successful, unless his curve gets as good as Beckett’s, which it probably won’t.
Maybe Schneid can help him get confidence in his other pitches.
Maybe, maybe not. Everyone knows what Rivera is going to throw. They just can’t hit it. Same for Wang.
It’s Willie’s fault Pelfrey hasnt lived up to the hype especially when getting called up to the majors 2 years too soon (2006)because of injuries!!!!
Willie brought up Pelfrey to purposely lose!!!!! Willie wants the Pirates to win the NL so thast why he plays Delgado too!!!
Oh and Willie is responsible for every time Reyes pops up to shortstop!!!!!! and Wright boots the ball!!!! and Oliver Perez being a mental midget!!!!! and Heilman looking like he’s constipated!!!!
Castillo. You forgot about Castillo.
what a great post. i hope all your posts are as on topic and full of value as that one.
You would think that Mike Pelfrey would be familiar with the cautionary tale that is Aaron Heilman.
Mike, learn how to be a starter quickly or you’ll be pitching the 7th inning for the rest of your career.
Pelfrey doesnt need a curveball he needs to throw more strikes, then guys will swing at the sinker….hey he’s a sinker baller, Derek Low and Brandon Webb give up a ton of hits, but then they get the ground ball DP to make up for it and this is what he needs to do, he can get by on his stuff….if he throws strikes and isnt afraid to let up 8 hits a game.
Difference between heilman and pelfrey is thus…Pelfrey has two pitches and could develop a good changeup to balance both
Heilman has one pitch (he throws a fast changeup and a slow changeup)…and one-pitch pitchers (Rivera) are relievers
Pelfrey and Ollie are like a box of chocolates…you never know what yer gonna git.
Nichols, while you may be a good Met fan and maybe you’ve been a Met fan your last life or whatever, but that doesn’t make you a scout, talent evaluator, coach or general manager.
If Pelfrey curveball was good, he’d be using it. It’s not. I heard an interview with a scout about two years and they asked him the same time. The scout’s take basically was that if they switched him to a slider its because his curve wasn’t going to be an effective ML pitch. In this scout’s assertion, that was a red flag that basically told Pelfrey he was all fastball.
Exactly. I’m stunned that people can actually think Peterson would have a pitcher stop throwing his curve if it were anything better than bad.
Look at Barry Zito pitch now. His curve sucks. It drops about a foot, as opposed to the 3 foot break he used to have. Guys tee off on it.
Pelfrey just needs to learn to attack the zone with his fastball. If he can get ahead of hitters and get them to fear the movement on his fastball, his mediocre slider or changeup or whatever offspeed pitches he throws will be good enough.
1. Pelf has a “get-me-over” slider?
2. How does that differ from his “hit-me-hard” slider?
At best, Pelfrey should be a reliever. But that requires that he locate his fast ball, which, as we all know, is dubious. He needs to be assigned to work on stuff - a lot of stuff - one inning at a time. He doesn’t belong in the starting rotation and keeping him there is going to doom Omar and Willie (unless, of course, the Wilpons are directing them to keep him in the rotation).
Aaron Heilman should be moved to the starting rotation.