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Metsblog reader Jeff H., sent in the following statistic regarding the Mets ultimately losing after they had been ahead in a game:
“Right now they are 20-18. Of those 18 losses, 9 came in games where they were winning. Of those 9 losses, Heilman appeared in 6.”
“Had they managed to emerge with wins in roughly half of those 9 come-from-ahead defeats, their record would be around 24-14 or 25-13 and we’d have very little to complain about.”
…with 77% of the season left to play, a five game swing in either direction has a much higher effect on how i view the current state of the team…if this was later in the year, i’m not sure that the difference would be as glaring…however, as i wrote earlier in the season, every game matters, and this is apparent even now…
…the question is, when is it too early to really gauge how effective this team, and more specifically Aaron Heilman, will ultimately be this season…to be fair, the numbers regarding heilman may be a bit misleading since he is said to have appeared in six of the nine losses, and is not necessarily responsible for them…that being said, i feel that there are definite issues that face the team, the biggest of which is inconsistency…although the names change, i feel that in any given loss someone fails to do their job to the best of their ability, and i just wonder when this team will finally, if ever, fire on all cylinders…
Another reader, Dave Constantino, points out that Heilman is historically better in the second half of the season. In his career, Heilman has a 4.79 ERA in the first half of the season, but a 3.45 ERA in the second half.
…so i suppose all is not lost…
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I think we should wait until we are 10 games out to make a change…..just like Willie waits until its 5-1 to pull Heilman.
Anyone know if Heilman has any options left?
You know, with some teams closers even taking a step back to regain their stuff, you’d think the Mets front office would stop being so stubborn with some of these guys and just play the people who give you the best chance to win!
Heilman is not that guy right now…. Hope you read this Willie! Stop being so Stubborn!
Someone in the reliever poll thread made a post about the lack of a trustworthy 8th inning setup guy being the biggest problem, and I agree. We have a bunch of guys who are specialists, and are very good as long as they’re used as such. That can generally get us to the 8th inning and then Heilman was supposed to be the guy to bridge us to Wagner. It’s been so critical, especially the way specialists can make you burn through your pen if they’re in for the 6th and the 7th. And while Sanchez looks like he may never be quite what he once was, it’s unfair to have expected him to be the 8th inning guy this year.
Get rid of Heilman, it’s as simple as that. We got rid of Sosa, who had a 7.00 era, so what is holding Omar from taking out the trash? Is he waiting for Aaron’s trade value to go up, or for Willie to realize that he can’t be put in pressure situations (or any situation for that matter).
I know Heilman can be effective, and we have seen it in the past, but if this is a win now team, it’s not helping that we are waiting for players to be good in the future. Relievers vary greatly year to year, so we could be popping the advils quite often this season with Heilman’s shoddy performances.
I think the point of those numbers is that Aaron Heilman is costing this team wins.
And beyond that, he is sapping the morale of this team to boot. You think the other 24 guys like seeing the same pitcher repeatedly torched like a little-leaguer?
is it me, or do DWright, Beltran and Reyes seem relatively immune from the ire of the fans?
It’s you.
Wright, maybe, but certainly not Beltran and Reyes. Do you read these boards at all? Heck, half the people on here wanted to ditch Reyes at the end of last season.
And with Wright, maybe he’s not hitting quite as good as last year, but the guy’s on pace for a 30 HR, 136 RBI season, so I don’t really think much of the blame for anything should fall at his feet. Plus, despite a few shaky throws, his defense is outstanding. And his average might be a little low, but average is a fickle beast: if he had 4 more hits over the course of the last 38 games, he’d be batting .303 right now.
They should be. They have track records, they’re at least near their prime years, they’re perennial All Stars, and they’re signed long term. They’re the core, and if you start booing the core relentlessly wht’s left?-trade everyone and turn citifield into a sports museum? If those 3 start going all Robbie Alomar on us it’s over. And I’ll have a lot of extra time for other things this Summer that I used to spend watching games. Honestly if two or maybe even just 1 of the trio have a dreadful full season it’s over. I’ve been wondering however, and I’m not implying that they’re giving away games on purpose or anything, but regarding motivation- Since Willie’s been put on notice so to speak how will that effect the players who’d like him gone. I’m just saying Beltran and Reyes often surface in the media as the 2 players who really don’t like Willie and THEY will be around for years to come. I’m just saying, if you’d like to have your boss replaced and thats gonna happen if players just continue to struggle a little longer-how does that affect one’s motivation to break out of a rut? AGAIN I’m not saying they’re tanking it on purpose or throwing games. I am saying where are the interviews of players fighting for Willies hoonor? They usually just give a Willie-like “He’s our leader and we follow him, tomorrows another day” line. Will any of the players be the least bit upset to see Willie go? I follow the team closely and I honestly can’t see the players doing anything but breathing a collective sigh of relief. Is it possible his own players secretly blame him for the collapse?
To all those who want to “get rid” of Heilman and to “play the people who give you the best chance to win”, who would you suggest Willie call on in the 7th or 8th inning? Granted, Heilman has sucked and is hurting the team, but if Willie is being “stubborn”, what would you do in his place? As AndrewP pointed out, the bullpen consists of specialists–Smith is a ROOGY, Show and Feliciano are LOOGY’s, and Heilman and Sanchez are supposed to be the 7th and 8th inning guys. (Wise has yet to establish a role, for obvious reasons.) What is the solution?
Joba Chamberlain and Jon Papelbon, duh! And if Omar can’t swing Sosa and Delgado for Youk and Paps, and then Heilman straight up for Joba and Cano, he should be fired.
I have an incredible idea – how about leaving the starter in for 7 and start making it known that 7 innings as an expectation, not an exception.
Then the bullpen needs six outs which with Sanchez Feliciano and Wagner is going to be pretty much automatic.
I almost vomited watching Deuce come in last night. I suppose that Willie is thinking that it was a great position for Heilman to succeed in, and with one ground ball double play, all his issues would be resolved.
What Willie has to understand is that there is simply no set of circumstances that Heilman cannot find a way to fail in.
Unless they change the rules of baseball and allow us to put Heilman in relief of the opposing team’s starting pitcher, so we get to feast of him, trade him for a fungo bat and bag of balls.
Leave them in for 7 plus so you can come here and whine why he wasn’t pulled in the 5th-6th?
Exactly, there was NO reason Vargas couldnt have stayed in there for the rest of the inning… why, cuz he walked 1 guy or he was up to the “crazy” pitch count of 97? Double play & the inning is over… which obviously Heilman couldnt pull off. THEN if Vargas starts to struggle, you bring in the “hot hand” in Smith to shut them down…. again something Heilman can’t seem to pull off as of late. Why keep Smith and demote the other guys if you arent gonna use him while he’s hot?
He needs to stop trying to get guys out of their slump like he always says – “You gotta play to get through those rough times” …. really? Well let him play in the minors, where the games mean nothing…. I’ll take the hot hand in the Big Leagues where people are paying out their butts to watch a WINNING team!! …. not a team of guys trying to get out of their slumps… we have enough of those guys already, lets not add pitchers to that!
Willie misuses his pitchers and is stubborn when it comes to making changers that other managers would deem as “obvious” …… but then again, every guy on this team is “My Guy” according to big Willie
Carlos Muniz
Ruddy Lugo
Eddie Kunz
a warm body
and despite his near no hitter today, Mike Pelfrey with his 1 plus plus pitch, is ideally suited to be a dominant set up guy, and Omar had gotten an innings eater like Livan he could be used there. I guess it’s a bit late now. Just look at Papelbon and Joba. The Yankees and Sox decided the back end of games were where they needed the most help and they proactively decided to keep them there even though they both could project as top starters. Truth is our starters have been pretty good so far, no matter who we’ve thrown out there and there is more help coming off the dl at some point and in the minors. Pelfrey should be used to make them all 7 inning games. The offense sputtered at times in ‘06 too. They were inconsistent. The bullpen was our best weapon that year, Wagner, Bradford, Feliciano, Sanchez, and Heilman were spectacular. Without another set up guy its gonna be tough, even if the offense gets more consistent as the year goes on
All pitchers are prone to blow ups, from time to time. But when one is being consistenly torched, you have to temper his appearances or at least not in situations that can cost you the game. Willie is terrible at handling the staff and he brings guys out that are struggling regardless of situation (see Sosa). But again, if the relievers are tired because of to many appearances, that has to be looked at as well.
At the end of the day, I believe the team will never gain any tranction with Willie as manager. There is no phase of the game that he is good at. He doesn’t manage the pitching staff well, he is a lousy in game manager, he doesn’t inspire his team to play hard, the team is lacking in fundamentals and the team rarely looks ready to play the game.
“Plus, despite a few shaky throws,”
A FEW Shaky throws????
You do realize he has 8 errors already? Throws count for fielding prowess as much as glovework. That’s why David getting the GG last year pretty proved that the award is worthless (then again it has been worthless for several years already).
I do give the guy credit for working on his throwing in the off-season, but he has shown minimal improvement with his throwing this year.
If this continues in the next few years then perhaps the Mets have to consider him as a future 1bman since his legwork at the corners is above average.
How long did it take this guy to all this out? What does he think the fans have been pissed of about? Can we now get rid of of the three headed monster: Heilman
Delgado and Isiah Randolph… please? This team is not going anywhere this year.. start from scratch … bring Valentine back.
by the way if I hear someone else says that it is still early in the season then you are freaking blind and have no sence of what’s going on with ny mets baseball.
So you want them to go 25-4 in games in which they’ve had the lead? Seems a lot to ask…