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In a post to Hot Foot, Gary Grund takes a closer look at Mets Triple-A manager Ken Oberkfell, who Grund things should be considered as Willie Randolph’s replacement, in the event he is eventually fired.
…i can’t remember the last time i heard a bad word about obie, yet he is not often talked about as a major-league manager - and i don’t know why…
…by the way, great headshot, gary…
According to Eric Simon and his calculator at Amazin Avenue, the Mets offense has been very unlucky this season.
…thank you, eric…i love this stuff…i just have no brain power to figure it out or understand it…but i love hearing the conclusion, and knowing it is based in some sort of fact…
In a post to Faith and Fear in Flushing, Greg seems to be doing his best to not become callous – especially in the final year of Shea Stadium.
Lastly, in the New York Observer, Howard Megdal talks with Scott Schoeneweis, who is no longer being booed, but may be the only person being cheered.
Bring back Bobby V!
The Zen Master lol
Mike Hargrove
Both of you are crazy…What has Mike Hargrove done that warrants a managing job with the Mets….I’d rather keep Willie..sheesh
yeah, I don’t understand all the man love for Bobby V. the guy was far more style than substance. Not to mention that he is revered in Japan and has no reason to come back.
Oberkfell would be Willie’s most likely replacement. I’d love to see him succeed.
yea the post on hotfoot is great. Id say he would probably get his shot if willies gone. If he cant cut it we can always pick up a manger to start 2009.
Cause there’s nothing better for morale than 3 managers in the space of one year right?
Honestly, if Willie goes, who I love, you have to clean house with this roster. Sorry, you start from scratch.
True, but there are excpetions. You build around Johan and DW. Reyes? Maybe.
Yes Maine, Pelfrey and Beltran.
After that, blow it up
On another note, they mentioned Metsblog on Baseball Tonight last night when discussing the Billy Wagner thing.
See fellas? Take a page from the Shoenweis book. If you want the boos to stop, simply perform! It is quite simple.
Geezz the stats on amazing avenue are mindbottling.
well things tend to average out over the course of the season (or so I very much hope)
I think the comparison with the Marlins says a lot. Just from watching these games I feel like the Mets have had some tough luck on the offensive side of the ball. These numbers really confirm that.
Eh, it’s actually a coincidence that the Marlins appear to be doing better. eBABIP’s a pretty quick-and-dirty way of doing that, not to say it’s not effective. But one better measure is BaseballHQ’s xBA, which takes into account all types of batted balls, as well as a player’s overall power performance (which is less affected by luck). It’s a variation on the same thing as eBABIP, but it’s more refined.
Restricting our sample to players with 50+ AB, the average Met is -12.3, or 12.3 BA points below what we’d expect. However, that is only the 13th worst luck in the league right now. The Nationals, for example, are at -18.4, and the Phillies are at -13.4. The Yankees are at -27.9. So, by this measure, the Mets aren’t in particularly worse straits than most other teams.
Another way of looking at it is comparing Equivalent Runs with actual runs. Equivalent Runs is a Baseball Prospectus stat that shows expected runs based on offensive performance. Generally, if a team is leaving runners on base more than you’d expect, that will even out over time.
Unfortunately, the Mets’ EqR is at 182, almost a perfect match for their actual total of 186.
All of this seems to suggest that, while the Mets may have had a bit of bad luck, it’s not really any more than any other team. They’re mostly just not hitting the ball all that hard, and not playing particularly well.
If Oberkfell gets the job, God-willing he’ll be sporting the same haircut as on that baseball card on the Hot Foot post.
…numbers terrify me…i have dreams about the phillie phanatic chasing me with a TI-85…and i don’t know why…
Who would the outside candidates be for the job? If they stay in-house do they look at Jerry Manuel?
I don’t think there is any way they go outside before 09. I think it would be manuel or oberkfell.
I hope its not kid or mazz, I think they would be major mistakes.
When they go outside in 09, I like showalter. Robinson and Alou were brought up here but I would guess age is a factor with those guys.
backman?
You mean Captain Peanut?
I forgot about robinson. Talk about a man that would come in and command respect. Hasn’t omar hired him before?
I joined the Oberkfell camp early on. He certainly has paid his dues, and won just about everywhere (including with some of these players). What else can you really ask for?
He can come on as an interim, with the expectation that if he does a good job, he wil lget extended. If not, he got his shot.
That is the quick fix. Omar also needs to evaluate the roster, and figure out what maoves can be made now (probably not too many). Would he ever cut Delgado? Who knows. But for the most part, the season rests with the guys you see.
Now, the off season is where the real changes will happen. I have said before that there will be a majro roster makeover 9and shift in team dynamics) this off season, wheter the Mets finish last or win the WS.
To some extent, the old guys were stop gaps, but they can’t do that anymore. With all the contracts expiring, they need to cut the old guys loose, and try to get younger and more athletic.
Even if that means taking a step back, and maybe having some growing pains in a retooling year. longer run, it would be worth it, and the fans would probably get behind a young team playing hard, as oppsoed to what we have now.
Alou, Duque, Pedro (probably), Delgado, all gone. Other than some bench guys (Anderson and Easley) and Wagenr, that is the “old” team right there.
Even the bench guys could go, and quite possible Perez.
I don’t expect Reyes to go from the core, but if the year ends bad, who knows. Anything just about should be open to discussion.
First step though is bring in Obie, and get the team settled down, focused and playing the right way. Once that happens, you can really tell which players are really to blame.
Oh, I agree with that one column 9Greg?). Enjoy the team and the game. If they just aren’t as good as we thought (hoped?) they would be, then so be it.
There is a lot of season left, and hopefully this risis time will be a dim memory after Obie leads the team into the playoffs.
Its pretty hard to enjoy this team. I’ve yet to see a comeback win. I’ve yet to see anything dramatic from them.
Why wait to do that after the year. If you can get something for these guys now, you have to do it. This team is nothing more than a .500 squad.
Keepers
Johan
Maine
Pelfry
Sanchez
Wright
Reyes
Castillo–contract
Beltran Church
Every other player should be on the block.
That statistical analysis doesn’t show luck. It just shows that defenses know how to position themselves against the Mets. It means the Mets are not trying to hit the ball the other way or up the middle. It means they are able to get solid wood on the ball but aren’t going for base hits but instead going for extra base hits. It also means they are pressing.
I know we all love HoJo and all… as a former player, but what does this say about his coaching skills? It seems to me that the offense is regressing.
Also, I’ll be glad when Shea is gone. I think there’s a voodoo spell on it or somthing. No matter what great offensive players we get.. they become crap when they play at Shea. I don’t buy the “pitcher’s park” excuse. There are lots of offensive players that hit good here… Just not if they play for the Mets!