Comments on: Links: Obie, Luck, Callous and Show

By: lewchr

lewchr — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:33:17 +0000

I forgot about robinson. Talk about a man that would come in and command respect. Hasn’t omar hired him before?

By: MetLifer

MetLifer — Fri, 16 May 2008 18:10:51 +0000

I know we all love HoJo and all… as a former player, but what does this say about his coaching skills? It seems to me that the offense is regressing.

Also, I’ll be glad when Shea is gone. I think there’s a voodoo spell on it or somthing. No matter what great offensive players we get.. they become crap when they play at Shea. I don’t buy the “pitcher’s park” excuse. There are lots of offensive players that hit good here… Just not if they play for the Mets!

By: MudvilleNine

MudvilleNine — Fri, 16 May 2008 17:40:45 +0000

You mean Captain Peanut?

By: Mingo

Mingo — Fri, 16 May 2008 15:32:57 +0000

Its pretty hard to enjoy this team. I’ve yet to see a comeback win. I’ve yet to see anything dramatic from them.

By: Mingo

Mingo — Fri, 16 May 2008 15:30:30 +0000

That statistical analysis doesn’t show luck. It just shows that defenses know how to position themselves against the Mets. It means the Mets are not trying to hit the ball the other way or up the middle. It means they are able to get solid wood on the ball but aren’t going for base hits but instead going for extra base hits. It also means they are pressing.

By: Sethuel

Sethuel — Fri, 16 May 2008 15:27:25 +0000

Eh, it’s actually a coincidence that the Marlins appear to be doing better. eBABIP’s a pretty quick-and-dirty way of doing that, not to say it’s not effective. But one better measure is BaseballHQ’s xBA, which takes into account all types of batted balls, as well as a player’s overall power performance (which is less affected by luck). It’s a variation on the same thing as eBABIP, but it’s more refined.

Restricting our sample to players with 50+ AB, the average Met is -12.3, or 12.3 BA points below what we’d expect. However, that is only the 13th worst luck in the league right now. The Nationals, for example, are at -18.4, and the Phillies are at -13.4. The Yankees are at -27.9. So, by this measure, the Mets aren’t in particularly worse straits than most other teams.

Another way of looking at it is comparing Equivalent Runs with actual runs. Equivalent Runs is a Baseball Prospectus stat that shows expected runs based on offensive performance. Generally, if a team is leaving runners on base more than you’d expect, that will even out over time.

Unfortunately, the Mets’ EqR is at 182, almost a perfect match for their actual total of 186.

All of this seems to suggest that, while the Mets may have had a bit of bad luck, it’s not really any more than any other team. They’re mostly just not hitting the ball all that hard, and not playing particularly well.

By: Jova1931

Jova1931 — Fri, 16 May 2008 15:26:41 +0000

Yes Maine, Pelfrey and Beltran.
After that, blow it up

By: rogasm

rogasm — Fri, 16 May 2008 15:15:10 +0000

Why wait to do that after the year. If you can get something for these guys now, you have to do it. This team is nothing more than a .500 squad.

Keepers
Johan
Maine
Pelfry
Sanchez
Wright
Reyes
Castillo–contract
Beltran Church

Every other player should be on the block.

By: khmustache

khmustache — Fri, 16 May 2008 15:14:29 +0000

backman?

By: stickguy

stickguy — Fri, 16 May 2008 15:11:45 +0000

Oh, I agree with that one column 9Greg?). Enjoy the team and the game. If they just aren’t as good as we thought (hoped?) they would be, then so be it.

There is a lot of season left, and hopefully this risis time will be a dim memory after Obie leads the team into the playoffs.