Matthew Cerrone

Opinion: Minaya, from Howe to Here
By Matthew Cerrone - May 22, 2008 10:45 am

Whether for or against Willie Randolph, the fact of the matter is that his players are not performing well.  They’re not doing ‘the little things,’ as he likes to say.

They are lacking swagger, confidence and they’re not playing smart, aggressive baseball.  And so, speaking as a fan, regardless of wins and losses, they’re just not very fun to watch.

To me, this has everything to do with the make-up, health and talent level of the people stepping on to the field – and neither Randolph nor any other manager is going to change that.

And so, while people want to get on Randolph’s case, and understandably so, Omar Minaya should also be held accountable for the way this roster was put together and his potential lack of foresight regarding issues with age, attitude and energy.

Minaya has done a great job of getting this team from the Art Howe-era to a time when .500 is described as, ‘unacceptable.”

That said, I believe the Mets require more of a change on the roster than they do in the manager’s office.

Minaya’s style has been effective.  Sure, he let go of Brian Bannister, Jeff Keppinger, Mike Jacobs and Heath Bell, but he also acquired Oliver Perez, John Maine, Johan Santana, Duaner Sanchez and Ryan Church, among others.

The thing is, and what worries me, is that the old market – in which Minaya worked so well – is now changing, and being run by a younger, different-thinking generation.

Smaller-market teams are now locking up their best young talent, meaning these players are less likely to hit the open market.  There is more parity in baseball, and so teams are less likely to make trades.  Lastly, players are breaking down and performing worse in their late 30s, probably due to the league’s new performance-enhancing drug policy, and so relying on older talent may not be as effective as it was just a few years ago.

I hope Minaya is able to adapt.  I am willing to bet he can, and I’m eager to see him in action – sooner than later, by the way.

As I said a few weeks ago, I sense that the Mets are at a crossroads.  Minaya did outstanding work, and did what was necessary to get from Howe to here.  However, I have a feeling that more work will need to be done to get from here to a World Series ring – let alone remain over .500.

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185 Comments »

Comment by The Ghost of Shea Past
2008-05-22 10:53:43

Finally! This guy needs to be held accountable for this team’s performance. Will SNY finally ask him the hard questions? Why no talent developed since he’s here? Why is Bernazard parading in the clubhouse? Why do the Mets never have advance scouting of young pitchers on other teams?

Comment by toogr82b4got10
2008-05-22 10:58:12

They NEED to shave their heads again to REVERSE THE CURSE!

Read “The Curse of The Shaved Heads”
metsmerizedonline.com

 
Comment by adropofvenom
2008-05-22 11:07:34

I don’t think there is a problem with the advanced scouting, as much as it is a problem with having too much of a veteran mindset as a club.

Generally, older players utilize experiance against prior pitchers as a tool in the favor….so much to the point that they can often become reliant on it. Delgado, for example, very noticeably kept a notebook of how opposing teams pitched to him so he could utilize those rescources in future at-bats. However, when young pitchers come in, there is no reference point so if you’re reliant on information that isn’t there, you’re often a bit confused having to go without it. You can see the scouting reports and know what he throws, you can watch some film of him pitch, but it’s never the same for a veteran as getting into the batters box and seeing exactly which direction his pitches break, if it’s deceptively fast or not, ect.

Younger hitters however, generally get by moreso on pure ability….so this is often less of a problem for younger ballclubs.

 
Comment by adropofvenom
2008-05-22 11:20:51

By the way, as to no talent developed under him….

Joe Smith and Mike Pelfrey were his draft picks and they’re both in the Majors. Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra were both brought in under him and make half of the package to get Johan Santana. Meanwhile, most of our top prospects now (I think pretty much all of them except Carp) are Minaya products.

Not the most impressive haul, but keep in mind….the Mets haven’t had 1st round picks the last 2 seasons because of our activity in Free Agency (Wagner, Alou), and that extremely limits the amount of high-ceiling talent you can bring in.

Comment by Tidewater
2008-05-22 11:26:41

I don’t know that we should be so excited about Pelfrey. He’s not really done much. And Joe Smith is a middle reliever.

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Comment by adropofvenom
2008-05-22 11:49:57

True, but it usually takes years for a player fresh out of HS/College years to work his way up through the system and make an impact, unless he’s a first round pick (And as I mentioned, the not having first round picks the last 2 years is crippling here). So that’s about as much of an impact you’re going to see this early.

You won’t see the true impact of Minaya’s work in the farm for a few seasons now. F-Mart, Niese, Murphy, and Evans should be the first wave of his long-term products. Lets see how they do before we trash the guy for his handling of the farm system.

 
Comment by Tidewater
2008-05-22 11:59:15

Pelfrey WAS a first round pick!

 
Comment by adropofvenom
2008-05-22 12:13:57

I know that….that’s why he was up here so early. Pelfrey only had 88 Innings in the minors prior to his first call-up. As opposed to someone like Jon Niese, who was taken in the same draft, who has pitched 341.2 Innings and has yet to get a chance to pitch in the Big Leagues. That just goes to show the different timelines that 1st round picks are on then later round picks are. You’ll begin to see the impact of those guys in the next year or two when they begin to crack the big league lineup.

But as of right now, Pelfrey is the only 1st round pick that Minaya has gotten to draft (Not including Sandwich picks). Now, yes, part of that is Minaya’s fault, as he cost us those picks by signing players like Wagner and Alou. But with 2 1st Rounders this year (And a sandwich pick), he should be able to go a long way to fix those problems.

 
Comment by Tidewater
2008-05-22 12:15:24

Unless sticking to slot kills us.

 
Comment by adropofvenom
2008-05-22 13:12:43

Breaking slot is only a worthwhile strategy when there are players worth breaking slot money for. Every year there are less and less players likely to do so, partially because other teams are breaking slot and not letting those players drop, but also partially because MLB has taken steps to increase the teams leverage (Such as re-embursting them with a pick if a player doesn’t sign in early rounds). Stop for a second and tell me who the Rick Porcello is in this years class….that Top 5 talent that is going to drop to where the Mets are selecting in this years class. Because I don’t see that guy there. That’s not to say I wouldn’t like to see them spend more money in the draft, but going ‘overslot’ is really overrated because the player who you’re going to end up paying for often isn’t a ton better then a player willing to sign for slot money.

It’s also worth noting that the Mets spend a ton of money every year overseas in Latin America, probably the most in the league. So it’s not like they’re being cheap, they’re just allocating their resources ($) into developing and signing players overseas.

 
Comment by Tidewater
2008-05-22 15:42:11

I’m not suggesting they should go over slot for the sake of it. But to hog tie yourself based on a philosophy that other teams don’t share is shooting yourself in the foot. I don’t know enough about the college and HS scene to know who might or might not warrant going over slot. But with more parity on the big league level, I think it makes sense to flex your financial might where you can — and where appropriate.

 
 
 
Comment by nrmax88
2008-05-22 16:03:13

Anybody that blames Minaya is an ignorant dolt with no ounce of baseball knowledge. The most objective people in the world, Vegas, gave the Mets enormous odds to come out of the NL. That tells you he did all he had to do. People are so stupid its embarrasing.

 
 
Comment by Free Aaron Heilman
2008-05-22 10:54:19

Matt hit the nail right on the head. With revenue sharing, there no longer are a ton of good young free agents on the market for the large market teams to sign, because the young studs are being signed by their original teams before they become free agents. Plus the new PEDs policies have made younger players even more of a premium than they’ve been in the past.

Theo has adapted by trying to build from within. Cashman is trying to adapt but he’s not nearly as smart as Theo. I don’t think Omar has even recognized these trends sufficiently yet. That’s why he’s so behind the curve.

Comment by dykstraw
2008-05-22 10:55:49

de-po-des-ta

Comment by Free Aaron Heilman
2008-05-22 10:58:39

dykstraw … the fact that he practically ruined the Dodgers doesn’t concern you?

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Comment by Tidewater
2008-05-22 11:00:07

If you look at all of the young talent the Dodgers now have, you’d realize the Depo was largely responsible. This kind of thing takes patience.

 
Comment by Free Aaron Heilman
2008-05-22 11:01:59

Like who in particular? Name three players.

I’m willing to believe you. I just want particulars.

 
Comment by pcmetsfan07
2008-05-22 11:03:19

Clayton Kershaw, Loney, and Russel Martin

 
Comment by Free Aaron Heilman
2008-05-22 11:09:46

None of those players were drafted by DePodesta.

Anyone else?

Seriously, if an executive doesn’t have a good drafting or player development record, I wouldn’t hire him.

 
Comment by Tidewater
2008-05-22 11:18:13

You know what? I just went and checked, and you are right. He didn’t get any good young players. I thought I’d read something just a couple of weeks ago to the contrary. My bad.

 
Comment by dykstraw
2008-05-22 12:18:55

he traded the ridiculously overrated paul loduca and a pre-cataclysmic guillermo mota and brought back brad penny, who is the only guy in that 6-man trade who is still worth anything.

and yeah, he didn’t draft those kids, but he also managed not to trade them away either.

the dodgers have really hit the skids since he left. juan pierre? andruw jones? jason schmidt? come on.

depodesta got a raw deal because a couple of idiot journalists hated him for his moneyball roots and called him dumb crap like google boy. high time he got another shot.

 
Comment by Free Aaron Heilman
2008-05-22 12:53:13

I think he got fired because he totally ignored the intangible elements of the game. Like team chemistry. For example, no matter what we feel about Lo Duca now, at the time they traded him he was a leader in the clubhouse and highly regarded. And who is one of the players DePodesta brings in? Milton Bradley.

I’d like a GM who has a good grasp and appreciation of stats, but also recognizes intangibles like makeup and team chemistry and leadership. I always thought Omar ignored makeup and instead concentrated on reputation (vs. performance) and tools.

 
Comment by dykstraw
2008-05-22 13:43:17

i’d take milton bradley right now. he’s putting together a nice season.

 
Comment by Free Aaron Heilman
2008-05-22 15:53:54

He’s got crazy home/away splits due to that Arlington Park. He wouldn’t hit like that at Shea.

 
 
 
 
Comment by shea1012
2008-05-22 10:54:52

It is tough to evaluate a GM’s moves so quickly - but the fact that Omar is not getting enough heat for signing Castillo is beyond me. On his next radio interview - he needs to be flat out asked why in the world this guy was given a four year deal? Castillo is going to be the Mets version of Jerome James…What a mistake that was.

Willie has list the clubhouse and needs to go - Matt, if you don’t think a manager has anything to do with ateams performance you are fooling yourself. Loook at the starting OF for the 2000 NL Champs for a prime example of how a manager can clearly impact a teams results.

Comment by Paid Like Mike Gallego
2008-05-22 11:14:55

That same manager’s 1998 team choked away a wild card berth by losing its last 5 games and lost 7 straight in late September 1999 which almost cost them a playoff berth. Bobby V did some good things here but a few of his teams didn’t exactly play well down the stretch.

In some ways, I see a parallel between this year’s team and the 1999 team. While the 1999 team wasn’t coming off a historic collapse, their predecessor should have been in the playoffs. During the 98-99 offseason, they signed Rickey Henderson and Robin Ventura as free agents to rectify two of the 1998 team’s main problems: lack of a competent leadoff hitter and need for another middle of the order bat. While that team started out well (17-10 and then 27-20), it lost 8 straight games to stand at 27-28 culminating in the firing of Bobby V’s coaching staff. At that point, Fonzie, Piazza and Olerud were playing great but Henderson (.242 avg) and Ventura (.268 avg) were struggling. Henderson finished the year with a .315 avg and Ventura finished the year hitting .301 and the mojo was rising in Queens.

This year, a shakeup (i.e. firing of coaches and/or manager) may be needed but unless our underperforming players step up like Henderson, Ventura and a few other 1999 Mets did, the 2008 team will go nowhere.

Comment by blains2000
2008-05-22 12:41:43

People forget the Bobby V era was not just the 1999 playoffs and the 2000 WS.

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Comment by dykstraw
2008-05-22 10:54:57

i can take or leave omar. he has made all the big flashy moves but he’s let too much young talent slip away through the back door. relying on pedro and alou so much the past two years was foolish.

but he isn’t going to be evaluated unless and until willie is removed.