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Using PECOTA projections, the most recent post-season odds from Baseball Prospectus state the Mets have a 51% chance of winning the National League East and a 65% percent of making the playoffs.
Only the Cubs have a higher chance of making the playoffs (85%).
In addition, the projections, which change on a daily basis, list the Mets finishing the season with a 91-70 record.
If the Mets are to finish the season 91-70, they will need to win 63 of their remaining 107 games.




people play baseball, not computers. games are won with grit and fire, not numbers.
there, i said it so no neanderthals can ruin this thread.
lol, my hand was twitching
Is that you Joe Morgan?
lol
p.s. that was sarcasm
ok, thank god.
So when is Omar going to get us those 8 Darin Erstads?
you know we’d win out if we had 8 darin erstads.
i can’t believe i was able to type that without laughing. you know i’m mocking the fools that think players like that actually help win baseball games, right?
of course, I’m trying to contribute to the same cause
good to hear.
You think he doesn’t help teams win baseball games??!!
HE WAS A PUNTER AT NEBRASKA! HE IS INTENSE AND A LEADER!
(sorry if I spit on you)
that gets me every time. i love when idiot writers talk about his “football playing days,” like he was a running back or something. he’s one gritty punter though.
the computer also predicted a 99.9999% chance that metsftw would dominate this thread.
that is one smart computer.
yo! what’s good danny?
chillin. surprised no one has yet made a Bill Pecota reference.
i was thinking about it, but it seems that the dugout has retired bill pecota as he hasn’t made an appearance in some time.
in regards to your comment….
Is it possible that grit, fire, and numbers (along with numerous other things tangible and intanglible) win baseball games?
Just asking.
Now excuse me….Ug now go make fire. Burn food. Then eat food.
since you asked nicely, i’ll respond in kind.
having played for a long time, i can say that it’s nice to have “gritty” players on your team. they’ll sacrifice their bodies to make plays, etc. but that’s only because they’re otherwise poor baseball players. they have to make up for their lack of talent in ways that people will notice. it’s nice to have them because it sometimes inspires other players that maybe haven’t been giving 100% to try a bit harder. but on a professional level? no, i don’t think players like darin erstad and david eckstein (or whoever gets the gritty/scrappy label) help their teams very much. these things have been studied for years and haven’t been proven to provide a boost in the win column.
it’s something that’s overhyped by the media because they want to believe there’s something more to baseball than simply good pitching, good defense, and timely hitting. they do the same BS with “clubhouse presence.” these things do not help you win baseball games. in other sports, where outworking a team can win you the game (basketball, hockey, football), they can apply. but in baseball, a hitter can go up to the plate with all the focus in the world, but if johan santana is painting corners with a 93 MPH fastball, pulling the string perfectly on his changeup, and throwing filthy sliders, how can “fire” and “passion” beat that? simply trying harder at the plate doesn’t get you hits. baseball is a much, much, different sport than the other “major” sports and writers/casual fans don’t seem to understand that.
I see your point, and agree that fundamentals are the most important aspect to the game of baseball. It’s about execution, and that leaves a thinner grey area where emotion is allowed to play a role.
In fact, you brought up something I have not really pondered. I have played organized baseball, football, rugby, I was a collegiant sprinter, and I currently play a hell of a lot of golf. Grit doesn’t allow me to hit a golfball straight down the middle. But it certainly allowed me to score a few tries late in a match when my legs were beaten down and ribs tenderized.
I equate baseball far more with the golf scenario than I do the rugby scenario. Sports are different, but baseball is one of the more precise games with numerous variables playing into exectuion. Obviously not as much as golf, but certainly far more than any of the other more physical games. Seriously, imagine if a boxer didn’t have grit or fire?
So yes, grit and fire are far less relevant in the game of baseball. But it still does exist, which is why the Ecksteins of the world are allowed to annoy the crap out of us. Pete Rose is another fine example of determination over ability. And imagine if JD Drew had a little fire and grit? I would think he would actually live up to his potential.
boxing is another sport where grit and fire or however you want to say it is required. wimps don’t succeed in boxing. maybe erstad should’ve taken up boxing and not baseball. anyway, i think we agree that these intangibles are more relevant in sports other than baseball. we agreed on something, i think the universe is collapsing on itself danny. haha.
i like the golf analogy (or whatever you want to call it). all the effort in the world (on the course) doesn’t win golf tournaments. in fact, you’ll probably play worse if you’re trying too hard–great thing about golf. it allows lazy people like me to be very good at it (was almost a scratch in high school, up to like a 7 these days–depressing).
but i think people are looking for a reason why a guy like david eckstein can succeed, and they come up with some bs like “grit.” well, he certainly tries hard. but it’s not like the other 8 guys on the field aren’t giving their all. you just notice it with him because he makes easy plays look difficult and has to exert maximum effort to come close to playing on a major league level. his “scrappiness” is a lack of talent being exposed by the talent of the rest of the players on the field.
i don’t agree that pete rose was determination over ability, though. you don’t get 4200 hits through “determination.” more than a little hand-eye coordination and baseball IQ is required there. yes, i understand his nickname is charlie hustle and that he worked his butt off 365 days a year, but if determination over ability is possible, then every unathletic kid in the world could play at the highest level in a given sport. and JD Drew? dude’s 13 points away from having a .900 career OPS. if he wasn’t injured constantly, he’d have a hall of fame career. bad luck for him, and i’m not sure grit and fire could have helped him overcome injuries.
i think we made some progress today danny. a pleasure as always.
you too, my man.
Sign me up for this!
Didn’t the Mets have like an 89% chance of making the playoffs in mid-September last year, using the same program?
Low blow.
In the end though, all numbers aside, they either make the playoffs or they dont. Odds mean nothing when it’s all said and down.
the computer apologizes for not being able to predict the worst collapse in baseball history.
yes, unfortunately the mets fell onto the wrong side of the odds.
wayyy more than 89%…in fact during mid-september, the odds of the collapse were 1-500, or a .2% chance of missing the playoffs
Since Major League is one of the most often quoted movies in regards to baseball…here’s one more.
In the words of Jake Taylor: “Well then I guess there’s only one thing left to do…win the whole @#!$ thing”.
So who are we going to peel velcro clothing off of?
Suzyn Waldman?
if i had to guess - Jay Horowitz
I think Suzyn Waldman would keep people away from the Mets