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Using PECOTA projections, the most recent post-season odds from Baseball Prospectus state the Mets have a 51% chance of winning the National League East and a 65% percent of making the playoffs.
Only the Cubs have a higher chance of making the playoffs (85%).
In addition, the projections, which change on a daily basis, list the Mets finishing the season with a 91-70 record.
If the Mets are to finish the season 91-70, they will need to win 63 of their remaining 107 games.
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people play baseball, not computers. games are won with grit and fire, not numbers.
there, i said it so no neanderthals can ruin this thread.
lol, my hand was twitching
Is that you Joe Morgan?
lol
p.s. that was sarcasm
ok, thank god.
So when is Omar going to get us those 8 Darin Erstads?
you know we’d win out if we had 8 darin erstads.
i can’t believe i was able to type that without laughing. you know i’m mocking the fools that think players like that actually help win baseball games, right?
of course, I’m trying to contribute to the same cause
good to hear.
You think he doesn’t help teams win baseball games??!!
HE WAS A PUNTER AT NEBRASKA! HE IS INTENSE AND A LEADER!
(sorry if I spit on you)
that gets me every time. i love when idiot writers talk about his “football playing days,” like he was a running back or something. he’s one gritty punter though.
the computer also predicted a 99.9999% chance that metsftw would dominate this thread.
that is one smart computer.
yo! what’s good danny?
chillin. surprised no one has yet made a Bill Pecota reference.
i was thinking about it, but it seems that the dugout has retired bill pecota as he hasn’t made an appearance in some time.
in regards to your comment….
Is it possible that grit, fire, and numbers (along with numerous other things tangible and intanglible) win baseball games?
Just asking.
Now excuse me….Ug now go make fire. Burn food. Then eat food.
since you asked nicely, i’ll respond in kind.
having played for a long time, i can say that it’s nice to have “gritty” players on your team. they’ll sacrifice their bodies to make plays, etc. but that’s only because they’re otherwise poor baseball players. they have to make up for their lack of talent in ways that people will notice. it’s nice to have them because it sometimes inspires other players that maybe haven’t been giving 100% to try a bit harder. but on a professional level? no, i don’t think players like darin erstad and david eckstein (or whoever gets the gritty/scrappy label) help their teams very much. these things have been studied for years and haven’t been proven to provide a boost in the win column.
it’s something that’s overhyped by the media because they want to believe there’s something more to baseball than simply good pitching, good defense, and timely hitting. they do the same BS with “clubhouse presence.” these things do not help you win baseball games. in other sports, where outworking a team can win you the game (basketball, hockey, football), they can apply. but in baseball, a hitter can go up to the plate with all the focus in the world, but if johan santana is painting corners with a 93 MPH fastball, pulling the string perfectly on his changeup, and throwing filthy sliders, how can “fire” and “passion” beat that? simply trying harder at the plate doesn’t get you hits. baseball is a much, much, different sport than the other “major” sports and writers/casual fans don’t seem to understand that.
I see your point, and agree that fundamentals are the most important aspect to the game of baseball. It’s about execution, and that leaves a thinner grey area where emotion is allowed to play a role.
In fact, you brought up something I have not really pondered. I have played organized baseball, football, rugby, I was a collegiant sprinter, and I currently play a hell of a lot of golf. Grit doesn’t allow me to hit a golfball straight down the middle. But it certainly allowed me to score a few tries late in a match when my legs were beaten down and ribs tenderized.
I equate baseball far more with the golf scenario than I do the rugby scenario. Sports are different, but baseball is one of the more precise games with numerous variables playing into exectuion. Obviously not as much as golf, but certainly far more than any of the other more physical games. Seriously, imagine if a boxer didn’t have grit or fire?
So yes, grit and fire are far less relevant in the game of baseball. But it still does exist, which is why the Ecksteins of the world are allowed to annoy the crap out of us. Pete Rose is another fine example of determination over ability. And imagine if JD Drew had a little fire and grit? I would think he would actually live up to his potential.
boxing is another sport where grit and fire or however you want to say it is required. wimps don’t succeed in boxing. maybe erstad should’ve taken up boxing and not baseball. anyway, i think we agree that these intangibles are more relevant in sports other than baseball. we agreed on something, i think the universe is collapsing on itself danny. haha.
i like the golf analogy (or whatever you want to call it). all the effort in the world (on the course) doesn’t win golf tournaments. in fact, you’ll probably play worse if you’re trying too hard–great thing about golf. it allows lazy people like me to be very good at it (was almost a scratch in high school, up to like a 7 these days–depressing).
but i think people are looking for a reason why a guy like david eckstein can succeed, and they come up with some bs like “grit.” well, he certainly tries hard. but it’s not like the other 8 guys on the field aren’t giving their all. you just notice it with him because he makes easy plays look difficult and has to exert maximum effort to come close to playing on a major league level. his “scrappiness” is a lack of talent being exposed by the talent of the rest of the players on the field.
i don’t agree that pete rose was determination over ability, though. you don’t get 4200 hits through “determination.” more than a little hand-eye coordination and baseball IQ is required there. yes, i understand his nickname is charlie hustle and that he worked his butt off 365 days a year, but if determination over ability is possible, then every unathletic kid in the world could play at the highest level in a given sport. and JD Drew? dude’s 13 points away from having a .900 career OPS. if he wasn’t injured constantly, he’d have a hall of fame career. bad luck for him, and i’m not sure grit and fire could have helped him overcome injuries.
i think we made some progress today danny. a pleasure as always.
you too, my man.
Sign me up for this!
Didn’t the Mets have like an 89% chance of making the playoffs in mid-September last year, using the same program?
Low blow.
In the end though, all numbers aside, they either make the playoffs or they dont. Odds mean nothing when it’s all said and down.
the computer apologizes for not being able to predict the worst collapse in baseball history.
yes, unfortunately the mets fell onto the wrong side of the odds.
wayyy more than 89%…in fact during mid-september, the odds of the collapse were 1-500, or a .2% chance of missing the playoffs
Since Major League is one of the most often quoted movies in regards to baseball…here’s one more.
In the words of Jake Taylor: “Well then I guess there’s only one thing left to do…win the whole @#!$ thing”.
So who are we going to peel velcro clothing off of?
Suzyn Waldman?
if i had to guess – Jay Horowitz
I think Suzyn Waldman would keep people away from the Mets
Thanks Joe Morgan, you are so right. Love your analysis work.
What happened to the last game?
Never tell me the odds.
To successfully navigate an asteroid field? 750,000 to 1
shut him up or shut him down!
Word!
the mets just signed outfileder Raul Gonzalez to a minor league contract, who is this guy?
He’s Raul Gonzalez.
He’s the guy that makes the Mets a 64.7% chance of making the playoffs.
a depth signing? who cares, really. not every FA signing is for the big club… we’ve got a lot of minor league rosters to fill
We should make a rule that if a guy can be described negatively by calling him by his own name, we shouldn’t even waste our breath.
“C’mon, he’s Raul Gonzalez”
I know you might be joking, and if you were, it would be pretty funny. But if you’re serious, Raul Gonzalez was signed as a FA by the Met 4-5 years ago, wasn’t he? I think he played a few dozen games for us in 2003 or 2004, at a guess. Can’t imagine what possible use he’d be for us.
Chris Aguila is on a tear and he wouldn’t embarrass himself defensively in the OF. Maybe he deserves a shot. I don’t have confidence that Pagan will do much once he returns.
I am not joking, I saw the article on google news
Actually, he came over with Feliciano in the deal that sent Estes to the Reds.
What were the odds at the beginning of the season.
PECOTA’s preseason predictions had the Mets and Red Sox having 93 win seasons
we were projected to win 95 games or so at the beginning of the season. but, delgado was projected to hit .265/.343/.471 with 21 bombs. doubt that’ll happen.
I think that was last year’s
never mind, I’m wrong
don’t question the almighty metsftw, bitch.
nah, just kidding.
delgado is still on pace for 24 dingers…dont rule that out so soon.
this particular report is generated as the season goes along, and includes strength of sked (better or worse hitting/fielding faced/will face–which can’t really find a trend too early), so they don’t even run it until a bit into the season.
Also how exactly do they project teams like the diamondbacks or the rays who have so many young players. I get that for us or the phillies or the cubs there’s years of data available on most of our players. But what about teams with a significant amount of much younger contributers.
short story: players tend to improve and regress at a similar rate (obviously there’s early and late bloomers–those are exceptions, not the rule) and at similar ages. so that’s factored in to everybody’s numbers.
Okay, I was trying to figure out how we could have higher odds than the diamondbacks considering how sorry their division has been. And how good they, especially their pitching, has been. I understand what you’re saying but it just seems to me there are too many variables to accurately predict the younger teams.
yes, i agree it is tougher to predict younger teams. i believe minor league numbers are included as well for those guys. but these are just odds and projections. and honestly, i trust these more than buster olney’s or jayson stark’s arbitrary predictions for the season.
Don’t forget, the Dbacks are 12-17 since May 1st…
and we’re 14-15. Not a very big difference considering how crappy their division is.
How the Heck is Fukudome of the Cubs 2nd in Oufield voting???? This guy is batting Avg303 Hr3 Rbi21…. It’s not like this guy is Ichiro a basehit Machine… I hate the Cubs… Mets will meet the Cubs in the NLCS and beat the little cubbies into oblivion. Lets Go METS…………
how is vlad guerrero anywhere near the top and the AL MVP josh hamilton 6th? because it’s an idiotic popularity contest. who cares.
and fukudome is an on-base machine who plays solid defense. he’s not their RBI guy.
Ahem, Hamilton is now 2nd.
thank god. if he didn’t get in that would’ve been one of the worst snubs in history.
Probably because there are 127 million people in Japan and you can vote as many times as you want on the internet?
because of unlimited all star voting in japan and what seems like boston… totally flawed system
I’m sure this was talked about already but the yanks designated morgan ensberg for assignment.
Possible Platoon with Delcrapo?
If he couldnt succeed with the Yankees, where the 1B spot is just as bad, what makes you think he could help the Mets?
LETS GO METS!!!!!!
OR SHOULD I SAY LOS METS
I look at these odds regularly. it is fun to watch this early int he season as you can lose 5% with one loss.
This and a token will get Cerrone on the #7.
Pedro has to return and basically be lights out for the rest of the season for the Mets to even come close to their PECOTA projections.
a token? I haven’t even heard that word in years…
Not true. The Phillies have one starting pitcher with an era under 4 but are beating their PECOTA predictions.
That should indicate the Phillies are playing a bit over their heads, no? I’d like to think that, but it’s nice to have math on your side, too.
I also think that PECOTA would be reasonable about Pedro’s health/effectiveness in its predictions.
correct on both counts
The Mets also had a 98% of making the playoffs for most of the second half last season… in other words, these numbers mean nothing.
Or we just failed miserably.
I go with we just failed miserably…and if the last few days aren’t a mirage…then pedro being average would suit us just fine.
I agree with this.
they did have a 7 game lead. how many times has a team lost a 7 game lead like that? they’re ODDS, not GUARANTEES.
this is why i put that first post up there, but it didn’t seem to do anything about the retards unfortunately
all that tells me is that the Mets choked historically.
Oh, I guess that’s why the media’s been calling it a “historic collapse for the past 9 months???
63 and 44 the rest of the way? Isn’t that BETTER than .500 ball?
“Better than .500 ball?”
That’s crazy talk. Please take your fancy magic elsewhere…
I agree.19 games over is not some impossible number of wins to reach. Its not playing .800 ball the rest of the way.
I’m just curious where they grabbed the data to support the Mets playing better than .500 ball the rest of the way since that’s pretty much what they’ve done in the last year plus.
Let’s start with a 6-1 road trip against these two terrible teams. The only pitcher who is good that we face during this road trip is Cain.
glad we miss Lincecum
and by the way, while it’s not impossible, you should realize that there are only 2 teams right now winning at that pace: the Rays and the Cubs.
.589 ball to be precise.
there’s a 50 percent chance of the mets making the playoffs; they either make it or they don’t. the probability means nothing with the amount it fluctuates from week to week. they’re hot right now and should win both of the series this week – the probability will accordingly go up – it won’t mean anything when they come back and resume a tougher schedule
The Phillies make me really nervous. Going back to last season, they’ve got that “it” factor.
That “it” factor is called a scary offense. But that pitching staff could make Charlie Manuel cry before its all over. Its just going to be a matter of the Phillies getting shut down by teams with good pitching.
that “IT” factor your referring to is a good offense playing in a god dam little league filed…or should i say “SANDLOT”..
either way its not such a scary offense once they get in to a park WITH oooo lets say with more than a 2hundred 50 ft fences as oppose to there 180ft walls …
geeeeezz are they even capable of playing real baseball or is it just an all out allstar/homerun derby game in the city of brotherly scum
PECOTA PROJECTIONS FOR THE NL EAST
Mets 93-69
Braves 87-75
Phillies 86-76
Nationals 73-89
Marlins 72-90
*Preseason projections
only thing wrong with those is the marlins’ record. the rest are very plausible.
in other news we have a FU(!!KN GAME TONIGHT maybe we should be talking about that dam math and predictions of us sweeping a horrible giants team … which would make us 31-27 and probably have us in a virtual tie with the marlins who are in first
the chance of us in first place after sweeping the Giants is ZERO!
phillies took 1st yesterday.
still far too early for this junk.
Pecota’s translated batting stats has these hr numbers
Reyes 26
Castillo 7
Wright 43
Beltran 22
Church 34
Delgado 22
Alou 0
Schneider 2
So, pecota is a little out of its mind.
wright’s is a little high as is church’s. jose probably won’t get to 26 but it’s not out of the question.
look at the weighted mean projections before the season started; those are more reasonable
where did you find these?
“pecota is a little out of its mind.”
that’s an understatement…. it’s insane.
only Beltran at 22 seems about right
If you needed any more evidence that Bob Klapish is a moron:
Since 2005, the Mets have done relatively well, having drafted current major leaguers Mike Pelfrey and Joe Smith; evolving prospect Fernando Martinez, who will inherit left field from Moises Alou in 2009; and John Niese and Eddie Kunz, among others.
From the same article: “Martinez, who was our No. 1 pick last year, is at [Double-A],” the GM said.
Of course ‘ol Bobby also mentioned the Mets activity in International Free Agency, yet forget that F-Mart was Omar’s first, and best signing.
For all the flak that the print media throws at bloggers for writing whatever they want, I highly doubt any Met blogger would goof on this level, especially considering Klapish covers the NY teams.
he’s evolving! so f-mart will have 3 arms next year?! wtf.
I love how it has the Nationals chances of winning the NL East at 0.28%
when your stats show the team with the 7th best record as the 2nd most likely to make the playoffs you need a new computer.
not that it’s not true, but there is no way mathematics should say it’s so…
the computer knows that the mets are underperforming and that other teams are playing over their heads. it’ll balance out.
Also it takes into account strength of schedule. The Mets have had a much tougher schedul thus far than the rest of the division, and as a result, have an easier one going forward. Of course, the team tends to play down to the level of inferior teams.