If you want to cite statistics, it’s a little flimsy to look at ERA or ERA+. They tell us a lot at times, but in other times too little. One thing baseball fans should know flat out is that a pitcher is only as good as the hitters and fielders. Vargas can strikeout give or take 1 man an inning, and walk one man every two or three. He’ll also average around 1 HR per start. He’ll do that about no matter where he is, no matter what the case, that’s what to expect. However, with the worst fielding in baseball, Milwaukee, you can expect a lot of hits. Way more than you’d expect of Vargas on the Mets.

So here’s a hypothetical start for the Mets:

6 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 ER, 3 R

And here’s that same start with Milwaukee:

5 IP, 8 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 ER, 5 R

As you can see, nothing huge changed in the counting stats, but his hit rates go up, therefore driving his HR, BB, and ER averages up. Maybe because Braun and Hardy didn’t get to balls that Reyes or Wright could have. Not necessarily because of errors, but because they have less range and worse arms. And maybe Bill Hall made a costly error that Beltran could’ve gotten. Not only did Vargas lose IP from all the pitches he threw, but he allowed more runs and hits, because the Brewers have shabby fielding.

Vargas is a pretty good starter. Not a bad guy at all for the back of the rotation. He strikes out a decent amount of guys and with good fielding he could very well be a solid pitcher.

Pelfrey to the Pen and Vargas to the Rotation

It’s simple. Pelfrey’s ceiling with his K/BB is the next Noah Lowry unless he’s penned. He walks guys and can’t strike
‘em out.

Vargas’s numbers are a little distorted. I mean for God’s sake we know that how well a pitcher does is really based on the fielding, outside of Ks, BBs, and HR, and he played for the Brewers! THE BREWERS! They don’t know the meaning of the word “mitt!”

On the Mets, Vargas is a 4 ERA guy in the rotation. In any rotation for any team, Pelf’s ERA is going to be around 5.

Your assessment of Pelfrey is spot on.

I’m certainly not suggesting that Vargas or Armas are saviors, because they aren’t. But with the team struggling as they have, the most important thing is winning games, and right now, I think the other guys give us a better chance to do that, at least in the short term.

If Pelfrey can go back to NO and work on his stuff, his mechanics, whatever, and come back and more effective pitcher, then it’s all good.

He’s averaging a fraction over 5 innings per start this season. For his career, he’s right at 5.5 innings per start. Career-wise, opponents are hitting an even .300. These are not the numbers you can live with from your fifth starter on a team with championship aspirations.

This year, opponents are hitting .317 against him. THREE SEVENTEEN! Lefties are killing him, with an OPS over 1.000.

Pelfrey’s problem is not necessariy “throwing strikes”. His problem sometimes is that he throws too many of them, even when he’s ahead in the count and not trying to. Motormouth McCarver used to call this “wild in the strike zone”. Add in the fact that he does not have a nasty “out pitch”, and what you have is a guy whose pitches find way too many sweet parts of opponents bats.

Granted, Pedro is a lot of things, but MD is not one of them. :-) However, I find it hard to believe he would offer that sort of comment unless he was very encouraged by what he saw.

In 2004, the last time Vargas spent considerable time in the ‘pen, he had an ERA of 4.61 in 52.2 IP. He had an ERA of 5.76 in 65.2 IP as a starter.

Last year, Vargas made 6 relief appearances (12.2 IP) and posted an ERA of 5.68. He started 23 games and had an ERA of 5.03 in 121.2 IP. As a reliever, he only had one bad appearance, allowing 4 ER in 1.2 IP against Atlanta.

Basically, my brief and overly-simplified examination of his stats indicates to me that you are correct, and Vargas is better suited to the pen. Pelfrey is too wild, IMO, to be a reliever.

Besides, I doubt he can give them what Vargas and Figueroa have.

Seems like when he pitches well the offense isnt there (Dodger game) and when they do score he gives it right back (Marlins game)