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Phillies (36-26, First):
Todd Zolecki of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports SS Jimmy Rollins broke one of Manager Charlie Manuel’s two team rules by not hustling out a routine fly ball that was eventually dropped. Rollins was benched by Manuel the following inning.
Over at Beeleaguer, Jason Weitzel provides his opinion on the Rollins’ benching.
…terrific job by manuel for benching rollins for not running hard…its sets a good tone for his team that even the reigning MVP can be punished for his actions…also a good job by rollins for taking full responsibility of his lack of hustle …
…on a side note, the Phillies are scaring me…winning the nl east last year has given them confidence, as such, they have finally learned the ability to win and be a front runner…and their ability to comeback from any deficit is quite impressive…
Marlins (32-27, 1 LB):
Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald recaps the Marlins loss to the Braves last night, as well as, their 3-7 road trip, which knocked the Marlins out of first place.
On the same note, at Fish Stripes Craig is thankful the Marlins road trip is over and blames the team’s defense for the Marlins woeful road trip.
Braves (32-29, 3 LB):
According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Chipper Jones, who hit the 400th homerun of his career last night, plans on playing into his 40’s.
Jones, who is 36-years old, is a free-agent at the end of next season.
…i’ve said it before, but i think chipper has a good shot at being the first player in 67 years to hit .400 in a season…he misses enough games due to nagging injuries that he may hit .400 and still qualify with enough at-bats…
Martin Gandy of Talking Chop says the Braves returned to their ‘tried and true draft strategy’ by drafting high school pitchers from the south.
Nationals (25-36, 10 LB):
Over at Oleanders and Morning Glories, which does an excellent job keeping tabs on the Nationals, Harper Gordek recaps a few quotes from Nats GM Jim Bowden, which have a similar tone.
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I still think the Phils’ crappy pitching is gonna tax their bullpen and be their ultimate undoing (think = hope). But looking around the league, I also think it’s completely possible that the wild card comes out of the NL East.
Actually their ERA is 4th best in the NL, which is pretty good considering that bandbox they play in. And their starters have pitched more innings than anyone else in the league.
Beat me to it. The reason the Phillies are doing well this year is their pitching is contributing almost the same as their offense.
In years past, they relied almost exclusively on their bats. Late last year and into this season, their pitchers are making contributions that have led to their NL East leading 36-26 record…
The phils are STARTING to scare you? They should have been scaring you for a while now. With their rediculously good lineup combined with a shameful ball park, they can outslug anyone. On top of that, their pitching is not really that bad – Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Eaton is as good if not better then Santana, Maine, Pedro, Ollie. Their bullpen is as good, if not better. Their lineup is ten times better. We could see our starting lineup get hot and make a run at the WC, but the Phils are clearly the class of the NL, along with the Cubs.
Hamels is awesome, but there is no way on earth that him + the rest of their staff is better than the Mets’ staff.
They can slug their way out of bad starts in a way the Mets can’t, but what happens when they slump?
They don’t slump as much as the Mets offense. Not even close actually.
I admire your optomistic outlook, and certainly don’t have so-short a memory that I’d give anyone the division before its mathematically determined, but I just don’t see the Phils slipping in the way you suggested. Consider this – Howard has struggled all year, Rollins has been slumping a bit of late, Burrell has cooled off significantly since his hot start, yet they continue to put up runs. I just see it like this – most teams will have 1 or 2 guys that are raking at any given time. The park is a factor, but the Phils have 2-3 guys raking at any given time. Throw in the random fly-ball HR at CBP and you see why they score so many runs. I think that come playoffs, good pitching beats good hitting. In the modern day game, where pitching is more a gray middle ground of medocrity than anything, I think good hitting takes the cake during the long-haul season.
Yes, so far our starters are comparable, but for a whole season I would objectively pick the Mets any day
Santana – Hamels – Edge Mets
Maine – Myers – Edge Mets
Martines – Moyer – Edge Mets
Ollie/Pelf – Eaton – Even
Now comparing line-ups..and factoring in their sandlot stadium – Yikes..you know it’s scary when Jason Werth is a homerun threat.
Sure, Moyer’s a geezer but he takes the ball every time. Maybe when Pedro makes a month or two worth of starts we can start comparing to other teams’ pitchers who don’t visit the DL more than the mound.
“Their lineup is ten times better”
I was actually considering the points in your post until you said that silliness. Mets lineup is 4-2 against their lineup. They’re not so scary.
ok fine, ten times better is a gross exxagerattion, but you get my drift, no?
I understand what you are saying, hyperbole notwithstanding. However, may I offer some contray thoughts:
1. Phillies longest win streak is aem as Mets longest – 5 games
2. Phillies are 12-4 against Rockies, Reds and Pirates
3. Philles worst record is against the Mets at 2-4
4. 34 games at CBP (21-13), 28 on the road (15-13).
Bottom line. They’ve been playing well, no doubt, but at home and against weaker competition.
Not a perfect team, by any stretch. Not better than the Cubs or D-Backs. Probably better than the Mets. I’d hesitate to put Santana that far ahead of (24 year-old) Hamels, at this point. Really. The real key for them is going to be keeping that bullpen alive through the hot months at that ballpark.
As an aside, the following baseball terms are really getting old from overuse: “rake”, “walk-off.”
“filthy” is in the same category
But if you check ESPN’s strength of schedule they’re right behind the Mets in terms of quality of opponents. Mets 23rd, Phillies tied for 24th.
Keith Law just said in his chat that Meliville is going to sign… couldn’t we we have taken him in the 4th freaking round.. I mean come on…
I didn’t understand a lot of what the Mets did yesterday.
No one does. Fans evaluating the baseball draft is kind of ridiculous. This ain’t the NBA.
Goes to show how being better on paper means nothing. The Phils are just getting it done, even with their biggest power threat (Howard) hitting .206 and striking out at a record pace. I think the wild card is probably our best shot.
agreed, wholeheartedly. what irks me is that I allowed myself the disillusion back in ‘06 we’d be the class of the east for quite some time. Success is fleeting! That being said, its more natural for the Mets to be a ‘fight for the wild card’ type of team, in my opinion.
who cares about howard’s batting average. he doesn’t hit for average. he’s hit 15 home runs. strikeouts are no worse than other outs, so who cares. utley, burrell, and coste are all over .900 OPS. they play in a nothing ballpark. if “getting it done” means playing exactly how they should be, then i guess you’re right on that count.
and wtf is “learning how to win?”
WTF is “learning how to win”? You won’t know until you’ve learned.
Ha..I’d be surprised if the Phillies are closer than they were last year with 17 to play. Sure, they seem to be playing hard, but they also seem to need to play hard to win at all. Rollins not running that ball out is just an example of how taxing it is to have to play that hard to win any games. Their pitching sucks and even Hamels isn’t reliable, so it puts a lot of pressure on the offfense, and while they’re all clicking right now, it won’t last. Besides Utley and Rollins I’m not even overwhelmed with their offense. Ruiz? Werth? Coste? Victorino? Burrell had a good stretch, but is falling back down to normal. They walk a lot, but if you go after them, they’re exploitable.
Their bullpen has been surprising, but their starters are b ad enough that even the good bullpen guys will be over worked. I expect them to be worn out by July.
And I’d argue that at best Hamels is a slight edge over Maine, and he’s #3 on the Mets. The Phillies had a good record last year solely based on beating the Mets. If the Mets don’t collapse (against the Phillies or in general) the Phillies are barely over .500, Manual’s gone and Rollins doesn’t win the MVP. Did they improve much since last year? Lidge is probably a little better than Myers, and Myers is probably better than whichever pathetic rotation guy got bumped, but not much.
All true, but last year they also got off to a 4-11 start and still won 89 games. This year there was no 4-11 start…
I’m thinking a 4-11 end of the season for the Phils would be good.
Did ya know the Phils have the same record as last year’s Mets after 62 games?
Cole Hamels #3?
6-4 ERA 3.36, all the while pitching in a park ridiculed as a hitter’s paradise, a bandbox.
Think he’d be at least #2 on the Mets. Santana’s ERA not that much better and Shea is a pitchers’ park.
I really like that Willie lets the veterans barely break out of the box when they fly/ground out.
Well they are “his guys.” duhhhh!
also, chipper isn’t hitting .400. his BABIP is way too high. i know the majority of the readers on this site don’t understand that, but let’s just say he’s hitting at an unsustainable pace.
agree with you on Larry Jones BABIP. Where can i check on Utley’s
fangraphs.com
Great site. Thanks
He looked sharp going 4/5 last night. I see him at .365 all said and done, not too shabby.
And he’s the same age as Delgado. Man. I guess some people age better than others.
Could be approach, too. Chipper stays in and hits to all fields. Delgado just tries to hit it through the shift every at-bat.
Yep, and Delgado swings at balls that bounce 3 feet in front of his shoe tops. That could be part of it too.
And it could be that when Jones has been hurt he has sat out. Delgado foolishly played through injuries last year and that could have set him back a long way. Chipper has been out the equivalent of near a couple of seasons over the last half dozen years.
.365 sounds a lot more reasonable. once those legs of his start getting worn out…no way he keeps up .400
What do the Bay Area Blacks in Philanthropy have to do with Larry?
It’s a misleading stat. Not all of where a ball goes when you hit it is based on luck. There is a “Hit it where they ain’t” philosophy that some players with good bat control are good at exploiting.
btw, I don’t know the specific details on the stat, I assume it discounts strike outs and home runs?
You’re right to a certain extent, that hitting isn’t always about luck. But, if your BABIP is ridiculously high, as Chipper’s is, it can be an indication of luck. Just like a pitcher who has a very low BABIP is probably more lucky than good, and will come down to earth at some point (see: Bannister, Brian).
E. Simon at AA did a nice little piece on this very topic a few weeks ago, if anyone saw it…?
no, batting average is a misleading stat.
and “bat control” has been shown to be sort of a myth. there’s little chance that a hitter can control where he hits the ball off major league pitching.
and yes, it discounts strikeouts and home runs, since those balls aren’t in play, right? :)
as far as I understand it though, BABIP is much more useful in regards to predicting pitching performance than batting performance. I know it has its place for both, but with pitchers it can be a direct correlation to how good his defense is, or just flat out how lucky/unlucky he’s been with regards to where the ball has landed, and it is mroe likely to regress to the mean. With batters, on the other hand, if a guy is hitting a ton of line drives rather than fly balls, his BABIP is gonna stay high. For example, Tony Gwynn in 1984 had a ridiculously high BABIP (.394), but it directly corresponded with his batting average, which ended up at .394.
*1994, not 1984.
I don’t find batting average misleading any more than any single stat in baseball is misleading when taken along.
I don’t think ‘bat control’ is a myth. Definitely to some extent, especially on just hitting it hard to the outfield, but things like the ability to go the other way and dunk it over the infielders head, or even the ability to bunt for a base hit, which is the very definition of bat control. When Delgado bunts down the third base line once a year, that’s bat control. Just swinging a fraction of a fraction of a second later changes which way the ball is going to go, and while this might not always translate well, if there is a shift on, it helps.
But, I don’t think Chipper’s getting anywhere near .400.
If you look at the BABIP vs. eBABIP, the difference in the two numbers can be a good indicator of how “unlucky” one guy is getting.
Bat control may be a myth today, but it sure wasn’t a myth as recently as the 1980s. Remember the “hit-and-run”? Well, there used to be guys who could put on a clinic.
considering the hit and run is counterproductive, i could care less if a player on my team could execute it. but hey, throwing away outs with sac bunts and hit and runs is conventional wisdom, so let’s keep doing it!!!!!!111
We could have done without the snotty little qualifier, thanks.
quit crying. you and i both know the level of intelligence on this site is barely above “creationist.”
As long as the Braves finish behind us (and hopefully out of the playoffs)…
I don’t care if the Braves make the playoffs, as long as they’re behind us…
All I know is the Mets have played the Phillies 6 times this year and won 4.
That’s all well and good, but the Phillies are in first and we are not. That’s what counts, not the head to head record.
Being in first only counts on Sept 29.
Zilliongames to go, including 12 with them. keep up the pace and go 8-4, and guess what? They’re not in first.
Yep, hope your right. Would be nice if Beltran can do some damage against them considering he made that “team to beat” comment.
who cares who does the damage, and I don’t want to here what does and does not count, all last year anytime someone said the Mets are still in first the rally cry was short sighted apologists, well…it does not change for the Phillies
If the Mets can have a solid run against the Phils like they did against the Mets last year (what’d they win, like 8 in a row against us??) then this can turn around in a hurry. The paranoid “we suck” Mets fans are getting on my nerves. Mets win the division by 3 games.
“That’s all well and good, but the Phillies are in first and we are not. That’s what counts, not the head to head record.”
Sounds like what the Mets were perhaps saying last year. And we all know the ending.
If the Mets can stay close enough to first, and then take care of business against the Phillies, They have a great shot.
I honestly believe that if Pedro stays healthy and can give them 15 starts through the end of summer at least, the Mets will be in first place come September.
Phils play the Braves this week. Mets will be gaining on somebody. After the Brave, they get Marlins, Cards, Redsox and Angels. Let’s see how scary they are after they play better teams.
Good point. I feel like every time I look up, the Phils are playing (a) at home, and (b) a crappy team.
You can only win the games on your schedule, so kudos to them. But I feel like the Mets have had a much harder schedule so far. Not to mention all the rainouts, double headers, etc.
unless the Mets lose…
now, there’s the fighting spirit we’ve come to expect
Well i dont see us setting the pace this year for the east. The Marlins are a flash in the pan and the Braves are beat-up. The Phillies look like they can be a long haul team when Howard starts swating those homers three times a week like he has in the past. We need a healthy Alou to balance the lineup and then we can go on a run for the East, if not maybe the wildcard.
!@#$%^& the wildcard!
They have a great shot at the NL East and “steal” it away from the Phillies. All they have to do is continue the way they have been playing the last couple of weeks.
Does anyone realize that at this time last year the Mets, after getting off to a great start, began their swoon of consistently lethargic and uninspired play which has lasted until just a week ago?
Maybe it was a matter of time before they reverted back to playing like they are capable of, regardless of what methods were used (manager’s meeting, benchings, media and fan pressure, etc).
All things come full circle.
Lets see how the rest of this road trip plays out before we say the team is back to form. They got their butts handed to them on Monday by a punchless Giants team.
what the Mets needs more than anything else is a nice stretch over the course of a couple of months in which every 4 of 5 games the starters are going deep deep into games, resting the pen and setting the pace
Johan yes
Maine yes most of the time
Martinez maybe, but dont count on it
Perez most likely not
Pelfrey getting better, but dont count on it
You are asking alot (4/5). Its the current makeup of the team, the pen is going to have to deal with it or we will not contend. I’m not being negative either.
As to this Chipper BABIP thing… Duh.
What do you think a guy’s BABIP is when he hits .400?
I bet Ted Williams posted a huge BABIP when he did it.
Now, I’m not saying Chipper’s gonna hit .400, but BABIP doesn’t mean much here.
see what i said about the majority of this site not understanding BABIP?
and williams’ BABIP was .353 in 1953 (he hit .407 that year). good call, buddy!
Williams bat .407 in 1953… in 37 games.
The season where he hit 400 and it counted was 1941. His BABIP? .378.
Chipper’s probably going to cool down. He’s not going to maintain the .424 BABIP. But we’re far enough into the season that if he only cools off slightly, he might just hit .400.
Look, BABIP correlates extremely well with hitting, and there’s all sorts of evidence that a high BABIP means a guy will eventually cool off, and a low BABIP means he’s getting unlucky and will heat up.
But it’s not a hard and fast rule.
And as to someone above saying that Maine is better than Hamels, that’s just not true.
Hamels has throw 21 more innings this year with a significantly lower WHIP and a slightly lower ERA.
If Myers gets into the form expected of him, the Phils rotation will actually be a little worrisome. However, he’s sucked so far.
And Sign Kenny Lofton!
Maine is not better than Hamels, it’s not even that close.
At this point I just hope the Mets make the playoffs (division winner, wild card, whatever). I think the Mets have the top heavy starting pitching and experience in the lineup to succeed in the playoffs, but this team just doesn’t appear able to put together long successful stretches during the regular season. And god forbid they actually sweep a team.
just looked up what BABIP means. carlos beltran might have the lowest BABIP of anyone in the league
it was really low; it’s up around .300 now
Yeah, he’s at .299; .001 points above Chase Utley.
Then again his career avg. is .304
I hate to say this, but the Braves will finish just ahead of DC this year. My team has been very frustrating to watch and it’s starting to affect my days. Time to take a break.