Poll: Grading Johan Santana, So Far

June 18, 2008 at 9:21 am · 73 comments

by Matthew Cerrone

Last night, in a loss against the Angels, Johan Santana gave up eight hits and walked two, while allowing four earned runs through six innings pitched.

In the first inning, Carlos Delgado made an error that could have ended the inning, but which allowed a run to score.

not that it really mattered, with the way John Lackey was pitching…a one-run lead would’ve been just fine for him

Santana is 7–5 with a 3.04 ERA in 15 starts for the Mets this season, during which the team is 9–6.

The Mets have lost Santana’s last three starts.

…a reader e-mailed me this morning asking if i am disappointed in what santana has given the Mets this season…

…i’m not disappointed…i think he’s been very good…not great…but very good…and better than his record shows…

…what concerns me is that his velocity seems to be a bit off…and so, last night, while he’s trying to throw a first-pitch strike but the batters were just teeing off of him…he could not get anything by any one, unless it was his masterful change-up, which means he is essentially a one-pitch pitcher at times

…that said, the way i see it, he would probably be 9–3 with a 2.80’ish ERA if he had a better bullpen behind him…of course, he doesn’t…that said, i think he, as a pitcher, has been exactly what i had hoped for…the stats are a different story… 

[Poll=122]

{ 73 comments }

dave27 June 18, 2008 at 9:24 am

Johan is the least of my concerns. Let’s not forget he was up against a strong lineup that’s very familiar with him, so if he were going to have a bad game, it makes sense that it was this one.

theperfectgame June 18, 2008 at 9:40 am

Agreed. This team has many problems. Johan Santana is the least of them.

npanzeca June 18, 2008 at 9:27 am

The more I see Santana the more I would rather see Gomez in LF. I’m probably in the minority but I think he could be on the downside which would be typical Mets.

the Straw June 18, 2008 at 9:29 am

booooooooooooooo. that is outrageous.

this team would be dead w/o santana. no they havent been good so far this year, but i think they have a chance to make a run. w/o santana, NO WAY.

npanzeca June 18, 2008 at 9:31 am

My opinion, you don’t agree, thats ok. Maybe he can play LF when he isn’t pitching.

the Straw June 18, 2008 at 9:34 am

Its a bad opinion. you need to have an ace to lead a staff…who would you rather they trade for / acquire?
I mean seriously, would you have been happier with Glavine leading the staff???

npanzeca June 18, 2008 at 9:45 am

For the money and talent we invested to get him i just expected more from him, he is not the dominant pitcher he was in the AL, a tougher offensive league. I am disapointed in the fact I really thought he would dominate the NL but he hasn’t. don’t get me wrong he has been good, just not great. I am fearful he is on the downside, hope I’m wrong. I guess if we had other options to go to in LF I wouldn’t feel so badly about getting rid of Gomez, who could be helping us win every day.

Dirtysanchez June 18, 2008 at 10:18 am

Remember also this is his first year in the NL, he is still getting used to the hitters. In my opinion we make that deal 10/10 no brainer. We gave up talent to get talent no question but not a day goes by that i wish we didnt have santana. He will get better

sherlockcollector June 18, 2008 at 4:33 pm

They might be dead already or it just smells that way. Seriously Santana has been pretty good but not lights out as most of us thought or hoped he would be. Ron Darling made a perseptive comment in that he needs to throw his fastball earlier in the count and that would set up his changeup. His change is great but he almost trows it too often. Also it seams like a lot of great pitchers have trouble in the first inning [Seaver was one] but once they settle down get in a groove. I agree with some bullpen support Santana could be 9 -3.

dave27 June 18, 2008 at 9:41 am

If we can ever make it to the playoffs with Santana, you’ll see his true value.

There's Always '09 June 18, 2008 at 9:59 am

I agree with you Dave. I think he has pitched well. He could easily have 10 wins right now.

Our biggest problem right now is our hitting.

Gina June 18, 2008 at 10:05 am

Yeah, the problem is we have to get their first.

BigHangWithEm June 18, 2008 at 12:41 pm

npanzeca,

Just give Johan some more time. I think you’ll happily be eating those words. Johan is a 2nd half pitcher historically.

For whatever reason it always takes him the first couple months to get the grip on his change just right. Once that’s locked in he’s pretty much lights out the rest of the way.

Don’t be surprised if he breaks off a streak of 10 straight wins sometime soon.

Also, the NL is the much better offensive league this season. So take that into consideration when you compare this year to past performance.

the Straw June 18, 2008 at 9:28 am

Its definitely a “B”. I would have said “A” before last night.

shea_guevara June 18, 2008 at 9:30 am

Two votes for F? Really?

Explain yourself. And see if you can do it without caps lock.

TugTheMan June 18, 2008 at 9:35 am

well you got one posted above (look at “npanzeca”)

TugTheMan June 18, 2008 at 9:36 am

see npanzeca above for one of them

npanzeca June 18, 2008 at 9:49 am

Sorry pal but I didn’t vote, guess you will have to pin that on someone else.

wnymetsfan June 18, 2008 at 12:40 pm

It is now up to 34. WTF? How can you give him an F? I would give Ollie and F so far not Johan.

jamie June 18, 2008 at 9:30 am

kind of a shame we’re ending up wasting a year of johan’s prime on a team going nowhere. I don’t know why, but I was really dejected after last night’s game. This team is just a mess.

Mets Fan on Wall St. June 18, 2008 at 9:36 am

You could argue that the Twins wasting a year of his prime last year is the big reason why we were able to get him. He seemed pretty disgusted after the Twins traded Castillo and he questioned their commitment of putting a winning team on the field.

garykeithron June 18, 2008 at 9:44 am

the twins are closer to first than the mets are right now. how are the twins playing in general now? is santana wishing he were back there?

There's Always '09 June 18, 2008 at 10:01 am

I think Santana is ridiculous if he viewed trading Castillo as throwing in the towel.

If we traded him tomorrow, would you feel like we were giving up on the season?

jamie June 18, 2008 at 10:16 am

wonder how he feels about all this.

dave27 June 18, 2008 at 9:45 am

All things considered, it’s hard to expect the team not to be flat last night….for once, I might give them a pass. The word is the West Coast travel hits you on the second day, Lackey is one of the elite starters in the AL, and I think there were a few other things going on around the team during the 24 hours leading up to gametime..

I don’t give out many passes, and we all want this team to get on a serious roll, but last night was a tough proposition. They had a chance to make some noise, but Double-Play-David took care of that.

2 of 3 on the road from the Angels would be a major accomplishment. Let’s hope Ollie stays on course.

jamie June 18, 2008 at 10:12 am

of course you’re right…all that’s true. I suppose it was a combination of not finding out til a little before game time for me about everything that went down (I was out all day) and then having to watch that terrible game.

theperfectgame June 18, 2008 at 9:51 am

Not as much of a shame as Roy Halladay wasting away in Toronto. I guess he made his own bed by signing long term, and maybe he’s perfectly happy in Toronto, but I would have loved the opportunity to see him pitching in a Mets uniform every 5 days.

jamie June 18, 2008 at 10:13 am

for sure

Mets Fan on Wall St. June 18, 2008 at 9:31 am

I saw when they flashed his stats that his career numbers in Anaheim aren’t that good so I guess I can’t be too surprised.

My main concern is that he seems to need at least an inning to get his stuff going and against good teams that could be all she wrote if he falters from the get-go.

pac_manjones June 18, 2008 at 9:33 am

Off topic, but after last nights antics, when Manuel comes out in the 6th to yank Perez, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him spike the ball into the mound, untuck his shirt and do a running front flip over the line instead of his normal hop. After that, I think I can say I’ve seen it all.

TugTheMan June 18, 2008 at 9:33 am

During the game last night they said that playing against the LAA was his secord worst place to pitch. I blieve his ERA was in the low 5s. While his worst place to pitch was at Toronto. Also he was starting hitters off with his change-up which according to Darling wasn’t a good approach because the pitch needs to be set up by the fastball (whatever that means). Maybe his fastball wasnt on. But overall, he’s been real good, like a “B” good, with some bad luck tossed in there.

metsftw June 18, 2008 at 9:37 am

first pitch changeup doesn’t do anything if a guy hasn’t seen you before. it just looks like a BP fastball, not a changeup. meatball, basically.

santana has been great. 2nd in K’s, ERA is barely above 3 (only 1 guy under 3 last season). to the guy who’d rather see gomez in left…hahaha.

TheBigStapler June 18, 2008 at 10:28 am

The idea is that as a fastball sets up the change, so can the change-up set up an effective fastball. Typically, the fastball is thrown first because, in a vacuum, it is harder to hit than a change-up.

Of course, if you always throw the fastball first, hitters will expect it. Plus, sometimes you just have a good feel for the batter, you know what he’s expecting, and you can play mind games with him. Lackey struck out Castillo last night with three straight curves, for example.

stickguy June 18, 2008 at 9:40 am

I went with B based on his performance so far.

But, longer term, I am concerned about him having peaked. The FB losing a few MPH would be a bad sign.

I said at the time of ht e deal that yeah, you have to make it, but if the Mets weren’t going to compete for a few years, it probably would be a mistake (in that he could easily Zitofy before the end of the deal).

Honestly, the way this year has unfolded, they would probably be in around the same place if they hadn’t made the deal, but signed someone like ohse instead.

Gomez certainly would have gotten PT, and I have no idea how Mulvey or Humber are doing, but at least they would have had some viable AAA prospects.

Hopefully JOhan has his traditional strong 2nd half, and stays among the elite for another 4+ years and the Mets win a WS with him.

metsftw June 18, 2008 at 9:50 am

they would not have the same record if they signed lohse. no, no no.

why do people continue to look at W/L records when evaluating pitcher performance?!

garykeithron June 18, 2008 at 9:40 am

last night sny mentioned that santana was the one who straightened wagner out after his recent struggles. he said he saw wagner dragging his arm instead of using the shorter motion he typically uses – essential for getting his speed up. now why santana had to notice this and not the pitching coach, i don’t get. also why pedro working with perez and pelfrey was what was getting them out of their slumps and not anything the pitching coach was doing, i don’t get.

dave27 June 18, 2008 at 9:47 am

Well, said pitching coach is now gone. Peterson did not seem particularly adept at helping pitchers make in-game adjustments, not that one can really tell these things as a fan.

hot stove chef June 18, 2008 at 9:49 am

I watched a clip of Show talking to Peterson after a game on SNY last night and it looked like Show was already thinking about what to order for dinner, as Peterson was discussing arm angles… sometimes the message just gets lost after a while. I was really upset to see Peterson go, but if the message isn’t getting across anymore, there really wasn’t another option.

hot stove chef June 18, 2008 at 9:47 am

Gomez is certainly not what this team is missing. 1998 Moises Alou is what this team is missing.

Seriously, if these guys had one more reliable right handed bat in the lineup, it would fix a helluva lot.

I’ve already started looking to 2009 and idenitfying suitable replacements for Delgado. I’m sorry to say, there’s not a whole lot out there besides Teixeria. I have a feeling that we’ll be talking trade, and potentially moving Wright to first to make room for someone like Joe Crede or putting a swing and miss guy like Dunn at 1B. Neither options really excite me.

npanzeca June 18, 2008 at 9:48 am

Well its not 1998, its 2008 and Gomez is a youngster. Young and athletic, remember when Omar said thats the kind of team he wanted? Seems like a lifetime ago.

hot stove chef June 18, 2008 at 10:02 am

Hey Gomez is a solid player and I’d love to have him AND Santanta. but given a choice, it’s a no brainer. You take the Ace every time.

starz31 June 18, 2008 at 10:35 am

Yea…you take the ace everytime. People are grading Johan on a very short term period. He notorisouly gets better in the 2nd half plus the reason we got him is because you need an ace in the playoffs. We did not have that and there wasn’t much out there (Bedard’s falling big time, hasn’t he). W/o a top pitcher in the playoffs, it can be ugly. Pitching wins championships…just ask the Marlins, D-backs, St.Louis, sox, and white sox.

npanzeca June 18, 2008 at 10:40 am

I don’t have the numbers but I remember that he had a bad second half last year and that is when his velocity went down quite a bit.

metsftw June 18, 2008 at 9:51 am

dunn excites me. a real power threat back in the lineup, not to mention a high OBP. but of course he strikes out, so he must suck, right?

npanzeca June 18, 2008 at 9:54 am

Living in Ohio and seeing more Reds games than I really want to Dunn is no bargain, he is a Dave Kingman clone and he is a horrible defensive player. He makes Delcrappo look like a gold Glover.

hot stove chef June 18, 2008 at 9:56 am

I worry about having high K guys in the lineup, because I remember the days of Mo Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz, and Mike Cameron. Those guys just kill a teams offensive production. The HRs they get are rarely against good pitching. I’d rather have a team of doubles hitters that are consistent and can work a pitch count.

TheBigStapler June 18, 2008 at 10:37 am

Metsftw, I’m with you. An out is an out, whether the ball ends up in the catcher’s glove or the outfielder’s. Dunn would be a great pickup because otherwise we’d have to bank on Tex or Carp in the offseason.

metsftw June 18, 2008 at 9:52 am

i’d love to have dunn. wouldn’t you like to have a 40 HR guy on your team with a .380+ OBP?

oh, he strikes out. that must mean he’s bad at baseball, right?

hot stove chef June 18, 2008 at 9:59 am

Honestly, I would much rather have Joe Crede for two years than be forced to sign a guy like Dunn to the 4-6 years he’s going to command. I just don’t think guys like him help team’s win championships. That doesn’t mean I don’t want him on my fantasy team. At least Crede can play solid defense.

npanzeca June 18, 2008 at 9:47 am

Off topic I’m listening to yesterdays interview between Fatso and Fruit loops and Omar, man does Omar sound silly…….does he have to use “ok” in every single sentence?

metsfan119 June 18, 2008 at 9:52 am

Seriously, Santana will be fine, I’m not worried about him at all. The problem is that the Mets have the worst position player in baseball batting 5th every single night.

the Straw June 18, 2008 at 9:55 am

There is a reason Santana has been the best pitcher in baseball that last 5 years. and The fact that he isnt even 30 yrs old yet, means he is going to be fine for many more years.

The idea that a team who expects to win a World Series, with a fanbase who expects nothing less, would have a problem with bringing in Santana makes no sense whatsoever.

Red Sox have Beckett: World Series Champs.
Cardinals had Carpenter: World Series Champs
Red Sox had Schilling: World Series Champs

Thee Bruce Dickenson June 18, 2008 at 9:59 am

I loved last night’s first inning…. Just what The Mets organization deserved! and they lost the game…. SWEET!!!!

There's Always '09 June 18, 2008 at 10:17 am

Do us all a favor and make the playoffs. Who is going to sweep your phils this year?

Your team sucks. Your football team sucks. Your whole city sucks. Face it, you’re not NY. Never will be. End of story. Go bang the philly phanatic.

There's Always '09 June 18, 2008 at 10:19 am

Get a life. Phils will come back down to earth soon. You really think Tom Gordon, J.C. Romero and the rest of your bullpen is going to hold up?

Are you sold on Jayson Werth and Pedro Feliz? Come on bro. You rode the coat tails of a really hot streak at the end of the year, coupled with a bad losing streak here. Let’s not get ahead of yourself. We all remember what happened to the Mets last year. Enjoy it while it lasts though, just look at the Iggles.

There's Always '09 June 18, 2008 at 10:20 am

sorry about that…thought the word “s*cks” was blocking my post.

Thee Bruce Dickenson June 18, 2008 at 10:25 am

Relax There’s, you just wasted 3 comments because I am a Met fan….haaaa

There's Always '09 June 18, 2008 at 10:31 am

I’m not buying it. I’ve seen your posts on here. Why be a fan if you’re hoping for the worst? Makes no sense unless you know of a hot high school prospect that we could get our hands on if we’re bad enough.

Thee Bruce Dickenson June 18, 2008 at 12:51 pm

“Why be a fan if you’re hoping for the worst?”…… you say this and yet your name is There’s always ‘09??????? don’t you think that is a little inconsistent?

Bruce Boisclair June 18, 2008 at 10:00 am

You can’t have a problem with Johan. Aside from last night, he has pitched extremely well, in particular the previous 3 games, which the Mets bullpen blew or they did not give him enough run support. As Matt said, if the Mets were playing up to snuff, he should be 9-3, at least.

He’ll be fine. If the Mets struggle the rest of the year, he will only win 15-17 games. He still could go for 19-20 wins if they pick it up in the second half.

backinbusiness June 18, 2008 at 10:01 am

OTish:

Check out the Brooklyn Cyclones starting pitcher and closer last night. Now that’s weird.

hot stove chef June 18, 2008 at 10:05 am

Jimmy Johnson and Yury Santana? I need an explanation

Flushing_is_Burning June 18, 2008 at 10:22 am

i would like for those who voted F or D to explain themselves. aside from last night and 1 or 2 other starts, Johan has given them what they paid, it’s the offense, defense and bullpen that failed him.

Joe D June 18, 2008 at 10:23 am

I hope this isn’t a prelude to running Johan out of town next. (just kidding!) I love these polls, but when they are used to categorize the entire fan base I think it’s a little unfair. I feel that less than half and maybe only 25% of Mets fans actually surf the web and visit blogs daily. These polls are more indicative of our computer geek vote than anything else and may differ greatly from the true pulse of Mets fans. I think that when the results are shared with a wider audience, they are misconstrued and as we all know data can be used to strengthen or weaken any argument. But small sample sizes, or large sample sizes from a small sector are not as telling as some may think. I like these polls and always vote on them because I love to see what we, the Mets blogosphere are thinking, but I’ve learned that many Mets fans who aren’t as computer savvy as us, seem to have opposing opinions. I think SNY should have a disclaimer when they post these opinion polls. Any other network that uses polls and broadcasts their results are bound to giving not only a disclaimer as to the polling pool, but also have to provide a margin of error. This is so the data can be extrapolated in the proper context.

PAPDOG67 June 18, 2008 at 10:26 am

On a side note….to the people who thought Johan would dominate coming to the NL because of the “weaker” line-ups….do me a favor and go check some offesive numbers for the season. Most of the really good line-ups are now in the NL and will be for the next couple of years as there is a lot more elite young talent in the NL. Baseball is very cyclical. Many people just assume the AL has the better line-ups because they have for a couple of years now, but that’s not the case anymore. Johan will be fine and has pitched well for us thus far.

hot stove chef June 18, 2008 at 10:31 am

…Or people assume that the AL has better lineups because the Pitcher doesn’t bat and you don’t have them trying to protect the 8th hitter, genius.

BigHangWithEm June 18, 2008 at 12:57 pm

so explain why the AL is statistically inferior to the NL this year, chef.

hi5wright June 18, 2008 at 10:34 am

You know what Mad Dog is going to say today.
“Look you see, I told you so. He’s not GREAT!”

Joe D June 18, 2008 at 10:35 am

Johan Santana could easilly have 10 wins right now if not for poor run support and a terrible job from the bullpen protecting his leads.

djsunyc June 18, 2008 at 10:37 am

there is a reason why the yanks/sox didn’t budge in their offers for santana and that’s the fear that he may have peaked and will no longer be a top pitcher in baseball in under 3 years.

mets had to go get him b/c they really didn’t give up too much for him.

him going to the NL extended his productivity by 2 years. if he was still in the AL, he would have a 4+ ERA.

ness589 June 18, 2008 at 10:39 am

Inconsistent run support and bullpen have hurt his record.

I give him an A. Why?

EVERY SINGLE GAME HE HAS STARTED HAS BEEN WINNABLE.

He gave up 12 hits to the Braves but only 4 runs. How many pitchers can do that? He’s not going to be Sandy Koufax in his prime, especially all-season long. Wait until the 2nd half.

TheBigStapler June 18, 2008 at 10:59 am

Has anybody come across any articles analyzing the theory that Johan Santana is a “second half pitcher?” The stats are there but the whole idea seems unsound to me. Why would you magically become better after the all star break? Is it the weather? If so, why is Johan so effective in September and October?

BigHangWithEm June 18, 2008 at 12:58 pm

it’s that his changeup grip takes a few months of repetition before it starts to become truly nasty and unhittable.

It will come. Patience, fellow Mets fans.

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