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Matthew Cerrone

Note: 08 Beltran is 07 Beltran
By Matthew Cerrone - Jun 23, 2008 7:28 am

Carlos Beltran hit a two-run, second-deck home run against RHP Greg Reynolds during a win yesterday in Colorado.

Beltran is hitting .276 through his first 279 at bats this season.

He hit .276 last season, and .274 in 2006.

He is on pace to hit roughly 25 home runs and drive in 115 RBI, compared to the 33 home runs and 112 RBI he had last season.

in other words, despite what ‘feels like’ a very underwhelming season from carlos, he’s on pace to be the exact same player he was last season…my concern, however, is that, not only is his batting average consistently in the .270s, his power is on pace to decrease for the second straight season… 

Beltran, regarding the Mets, who are now just two losses back of the Phillies, while talking to reporters after yesterday’s game:

“We should have been in a better place.  But, at the same time, it could have been worse if the other teams, you know, would have taken advantage of the situation that we went through earlier in the season.”

this is true…i’d love to view this through the prism of, ‘the Mets are hot,’ but the reality is that the Phillies are ice cold…but, such is baseball…like a former Mets manager used to say, baseball is a long season with lots of ups and downs

48 Responses to “Note: 08 Beltran is 07 Beltran”

  1. C Dubb says:

    Beltran is certainly not having a bad season. He’s the best center fielder in the NL, if not all of baseball. The problem isn’t that he’s not living up to last season’s numbers, it’s that he’s not living up to 2006’s numbers. But if he continues like he’s going, it’s hard not to be pleased.

    As for his quote, my favorite part is how he puts “the situation” in the past tense. Clearly, the players (or Beltran, at least) have put their issues in the past, mentally.

    • UpperDeckDweller says:

      I couldnt agree more…it was subtle but it was there. The past tense is what I’m referring to. This team is out of that nasty pattern we were in earlier in the season. We just took our 3rd straight series win and we are closing in on the Phillies fast!

      Beltran is doing fine and dont think for a second that he’s playing pain-free. He had surgery on his knee in the offseason and I’m sure it was barking earlier in the year, yet he played through it all year consistently delivering the best centerfield-play in the majors and now is starting to hit as well. Watch out – the Mets are rolling!!

    • chicagometfan says:

      It is too early to assume Betran’s power numbers will decline this year compared to last.
      last year at the end of June he had 14 HR’s and 49 RBI
      There are still 8 games to go in June and he is at 11 and 50. Plus we all know he had an HR and 2 rbi’s taken away on the blown HR call in FL. If he has the same strong second half he had last year his power numbers will be the same

  2. mr.gee21 says:

    Some of this “decline” has to be attributed not to Beltran, but the decline of the protection he is afforded in the line-up. Would you throw something juicy to him, knowing Delgado is behind him in 2008?

    • patrick says:

      that would make sense except that removing his flat april he is hitting .300 with a .380 OBP and a .530 SLG, and the same crap has been hitting behind him, and all the while he is still making a ton of hard outs, it is selectivity and in many ways luck

      • mr.gee21 says:

        Can’t argue with that — the man has seemed to hit a lot of balls right at people…

    • ravi3 says:

      Plus the fact that 2006 was unfortunately an aberration for his career…He has never been that prolific of a HR hitter. In fact, over the course of 162 games, Carlos averages 29 HR’s. He is on pace to reach his career norms, which after two excellent seasons, can be seen as a short fall…We were spoiled by ‘06 and ‘07

      • patrick says:

        why is it an aberration, he hit 38 in 2004 and last year playing the season on two bad knees hit 33.

        • ravi3 says:

          Its an aberration, because those 2004 and 2006 (less so last season) are outliers relative to his career norms.

        • patrick says:

          They are both in the prime of his career, that does not necessarily make them outliers

    • ridethesnake says:

      I don’t really see how a .276 average for a .280 career hitter is concerning anyone, especially considering it’s his high watermark in the five years in the NL and his 4th highest in his 11 year career.

  3. cyclone says:

    It’s not like he has very much protection from the guys hitting behind him in the order. I don’t think he’s having that bad of a season, despite what some posters on here believe. Plus the fact that he is a streaky player, I have no doubt that sooner or later he’s going to a two week tear at some point that is going to bring him up to a pace that is closer to 30+ homers, which is fine. Plus he’s still a gold glover. The fans stay ripping this guy, but he is solid when he’s healthy. I just find it funny that people rip Beltran, but Wright gets a pass when their stats are pretty similar.

    • RPsJacket says:

      I agree with you guys, the lineup has at least some impact. And he did start slow from a power impact but has started to show his usual pop. He also had a homer taken away.

      Beltran is not part of any problem with this team, he is a very good player and arguably the best or second best player at his position in the entire league. The fans forget that sometimes and criticize the contract but you do have to overpay for that these days.

  4. MetsFanInVegas says:

    I may be getting ahead of myself thinking forward to next season already but whether he continues to have his numbers decrease or not this team will need a middle-of-the-order bat next season. Delgado will be gone, Church should be back but I don’t know if I would want him batting as high as 5th. Someone like Teixeira would be nice I just don’t believe we’ll be the team to sign him. F-Mart isn’t a middle-of-the-order guy quite yet and I don’t even wanna hear about Carp or any of those guys yet until they can show me good numbers in AAA.

    • ravi3 says:

      Actually, the Mets will be right in the mix for Teixiera…The teams that will be in play are the Mets/Yanks/Braves/O’s.

      I think the Braves will drop out due to the money involved. As far as the Yanks go, with Giambi’s resurgence, there has been talk of bringing him back at a lower rate. If that happens, its just the Mets and O’s…both teams flush with cash, with one team being much closer to contention.

      • Gina says:

        With the contract he wants signing him would be a mistake for any team. I’d rather try Carp or a Carp/Evans platoon or some other stop gap and spend that money on pitching.

  5. magic00700magic says:

    He was never going to be AROD or Guererro (though the Mets paid him as such).

    He is still a very good player as long as we ignore the price tag.

    • RPsJacket says:

      Well, he makes alot less than Arod and I would argue that while he doesn’t put up Vlads ofensive numbers his defense is better at a more difficult position to fill.

  6. ToastyJoe says:

    “i’d love to view this through the prism of, ‘the Mets are hot,’ but the reality is that the Phillies are ice cold…”

    They’ve won 6 out of their last 9. They’re hot. You can say it.

  7. Chan Ho Parking Lot says:

    A big part of the Phillies going ice cold correlates to Utley, who is in a slump that would make Carlos Delgado point and laugh.

    • There's Always '09 says:

      I couldn’t care less if the Phillies are ice cold. We’ve made up much necessary ground during their “cold” streak. I would think we should chalk it up to the Phillies stepping up in weight class over the past 2 series.

      1-2 vs. the Red Sox, 0-3 vs. the Angels.

  8. bittergreen says:

    Beltran got off to a slow start in terms of power hitting and BA. Through May 30th he had 3 homers. Since May 31st he has hit 7 homers (in a little over 3 weeks). His BA is .310 and SLG is at .738 during that time period.

    There was some mention of the off-season surgery effecting early season performance. It’s not the first time we’ve seen Carlos get off to a slow early season.

  9. JSC1968 says:

    You know Delgado is on pace to hit around 25HRs and 80 RBIs, also his 2nd half is usually about 40 points higher than his 2nd half, which means that Beltran will see better pitches. This is beared out by last season’s numbers that had Beltran avg about 35 points higher in the 2nd half.

  10. Don't mess with the Johan says:

    8-1 is hot. 6-3 is good baseball.

    The Mets get instantly better when Church comes back. Kind of like making a trade where you give up nothing. If he slots behind Beltran, then Delgado slides down to 6th, Nixon to 7th.

    I’m not totally sold on Nixon. Gritty and .190 get old pretty quick.

    I read a report where Alou is done

    The Astros may have a fire sale. Ty Wigginton can play for my team any day. Her’s a guy who can play any where but C, SS & CF, still bleeds Orange & Blue, and is hitting better than Nixon. And i still have a t-shirt w/ #9 on the back. Stick him LF, 2B or 1B and we are pretty good. better than carrying three catchers

    Would you trade for Berkman? do we have enough to get him?

  11. Agreed that Beltran is having a very good year thus far, but just because he’s on pace to hit 25 HR right now doesn’t mean that he can’t hit 30 or more HR by the end of the season.

    • nyr2k2 says:

      Exactly, especially when one remembers that Beltran is a notoriously streaky hitter, especially in the power department. He’ll go two weeks with no homers and then belt 5 in 5 games.

  12. Mets Fan In Philly says:

    Seriously, I don’t get why there’s been all this talk of how hot Reyes has been, and no mention of how hot Beltran has been. Over the last month, he’s hit .304 with 7 HR’s and 24 RBI. That’s a hell of a month. If he continues like that, he’ll have his best season in a while.

  13. Scree says:

    Did that fine display of Colorado White Trash annoy anybody else during the game, sitting there behind home plate with his shirt off, and screaming during just about every Met AB?

    You’d think somebody who gets that good of a seat has a little more respect for the game, and the people around them.

    Lesson of the day – Don’t give out your season tickets over Craigslist orrrrrrrrrr give out seats to the cousin of the part time parking lot attendants neighbor.

    • UpperDeckDweller says:

      HAHA – i did see those guys and was equally annoyed by their lack of clothing and annoying yelling at our batters. But hey, im not gonna hate on them for getting hooked up with some sweet seats and taking advantage of them – it was probably once in a lifetime for those yokels.

  14. Jmiles says:

    Why would you pitch to Beltran when all you have to do is give Delgado and inside fastball and watch him swing and miss.
    The question is why isn’t Wright killing the baseball.
    The barometer will be when Church comes back.I’m also glad Manuel addressed the Alou situation.He is playing like Alou won’t be coming back.The front office should act like that and start to prepare for the trading deadline.
    Are the Mets Hot? Semi-Lukewarm.They need to be 12 and 3 for me to really think they are hot.
    The Phillies came down to earth but they will get Hot again.We can’t let this opportunity slip aaway

  15. NegativeFan says:

    They’re only 2 losses behind the Phils IF they win all of their games in hand.

    Given that one of them will be made up in a DH this week, that is highly doubtful.

    They’re AT LEAST 3 losses behind the Phils.

  16. NegativeFan says:

    They have lots of work to do still

    • patrick says:

      anything less than a sweep of the Marines is unexcusable, the Mets are a team that is coming home with some fresh air and the fans eager to see some wins, whereas the Mariners are an awful team mailing it all in.

      • mr.gee21 says:

        You really won’t excuse them if they go 2-1?

        • patrick says:

          I know Marlon Anderson’s mantra was nice sounding, but somewhere a long the line they are likely to lose 2 of 3 to teams here and there, the Mariners are a pathetic team, is winning 2 acceptable? sure, but it won’t get done in the long haul, particularly with 4 games this weekend and a doubleheader friday, the Mets are looking at the best case scenario of 3-1, but likely a split, they need these games.

  17. Andrew says:

    Cerrone: I wouldn’t worry about it. Beltran had surgery on both his knees in the offseason; he clearly needed some time this year to rebuild strength in his legs, which he had lost because you can’t really exercise right after getting surgery on them. Now the strength is coming back to him, and it’s apparent at the plate, in the field and on the bases.

    We may be seeing the rare animal called “healthy Carlos Beltran.”

  18. 7-train says:

    Carlos Beltran is an excellent ballplayer. Every team in MLB would like to have Carlos. He’s just can’t be the best player on your team. He is a great 2nd or 34d best player. Fans have unrealistic expectations of him because of his contract. But his contract is largely due to him being the only good youngish player available the year he hit the market. That and the Mets bidding against themselves for his services.

  19. Don't mess with the Johan says:

    Bleeding Orange & Blue is a figure of speech. Whether he does or not is my own opinion. Many people have affinity for there “firsts” Whether its a car, a girl, a house, or maybe even a baseball team.

  20. patrick says:

    I aware it is a figure of speech, and whether he was your first or not, you have no idea whether the guy gives a rats arse about the Mets or not, and bottomline as hard nosed as he was, his better days have come and gone.