|
|
|
Yesterday, I was a guest on SNY’s The Wheel House hosted by hosted by Brian Custer, Scott Ferrall and Brandon Tierney, during which we talked about Moises Alou, Fernando Tatis, Ryan Church and Matt Holliday’s availability, which you can watch by clicking play below:
Follow me on
MetsBlog.com is owned and operated by Matthew Cerrone.
MetsBlog.com publishes both rumor and opinion, as well as accurately reported information from other sources. Information on MetsBlog.com may contain errors or inaccuracies - links to content and the quotation of material from other news sources are not the responsibility of
MetsBlog.com.
MetsBlog.com and Matthew Cerrone are not responsible for what is written by non-MetsBlog.com writers within the site's comment's section.
That voice is not annoying at all.
hahahahahaha
are you talking about ferall? he is unlistenable
Agreed. 100% unlistenable. The weird thing is, he has a freaking RADIO SHOW. Which, apparently, some people choose to listen to VOLUNTARILY. Mind-boggling.
I dont have sound in my office but what do you guys think it would take for the Mets to grab Holliday? There are only about 5 teams that could give him the money that he is looking for and the Mets are one of them.
That’s not exactly Colorado’s problem, although no one is going to give up what they are asking for for a rental.
I’d honestly give up FMart here, or at least really consider it strongly. Holliday, Beltran, and Church could be your OF for the next 5 years. I don’t give up Pelfrey though. There’s nothing in the pipeline pitching-wise and for next year he, Maine, and Johan are the only givens.
Thats only if Church can get back on the field. Concussions can end careers.
a miracle.
no way i trade pelfrey and heilman for holliday. One thing weve seen in baseball, time and again, is that hitting wins games, but pitching win championships. Does anyone think the Cards in 2006 did it with their lineup?
Right now, out pitching is clicking. We need everyone we got. In the end, if we have to thru the rest of the season with our of the way it is, I could live with it if our pitching holds up.
Dont forget, the upside on a good young pitcher could be enormous. Holliday is a subpar fielder, and as great as his number are at coors, they are only slightly above avg elsewhere. I would project Matt on the Mets to be a .290/20/90 type player with very weak defense. I wouldn’t break the bank for him as there will certianly be similar players available next year.
Anyone still remember Scott Kazmir, who hadn’t even pitched in the majors when we traded him?
Front line pitchers are much more valuable than corner OFs, unless you’re talking about a sure HOF.
Cerone
you are saying the fans wouldnt trade pelfrey for holliday? are you insane?
i would do it in a heartbeat
I would only trade Pelfrey for him if the Mets were given a window of 72 hrs to sign Holliday to an extension like we did with Santana.
Yea, but he is under contract through 2009, so I dont think that would be a sticking point.
Read the comments from yesterday…most posters, including myself, wouldn’t trade pelfrey for Holliday. There is way too big a difference between his home/road splits.
So its the Coors field affect again? So far in 2008 he is batting .368 at home and .314 on the road. He has 9 hrs and home and 5 hr on the road.
But he has 163abs at home and 137 on the road. So its not that much different if you look at it on paper.
The RBIs are a lot different though…..37 at home and 14 on the road but you still have to take the amount of abs into the equation.
Wow, in 76 whole games? Even if you only look at this year, you will notice that he is slugging .638 at home and .482 on the road…if you look at 2007 you will see that he hit .376 with 25 HR,82 RBI and a .722 SLG at home and .301 with 11 HR, 55 RBI and a .485 SLG on the road. 2006- .373 with 22 HR, 78 RBI and a .692 SLG at home and .280 with 12 HR 36 RBI and a .485 SLG on the road.
For his career:
Home- .364 AVG .427 OBP, .659 SLG, 78 HR
Road- .278 AVG, .341 OBP, .452 SLG, 39HR
But hey, why ignore his whole career when you can look at half a season during which he has missed a good amount of time and the splits are only slightly staggering.
The reason the fans wouldn’t trade Pelfrey for Holliday is that they’re so quick to jump to conclusions based on tiny sample size. Pelfrey makes 6 good starts in a row? No way! He’s a GIVEN. Haha. A given. He makes 6 bad starts in a row, “man, we shoulda traded him for Holliday when we could have!” (another Met fan tendency – ‘assuming’ a trade could have got done because of idiotic media speculation) – fact is Holliday could be an all star caliber bat for the next however many years and when things even out I dont think big Pelf develops into any kind of ace, or even the quality of pitcher that can’t be replaced with a solid signing or trade. I’d trade him for Holliday.
I was just taking a small sample but thanks for saving me the work of looking up all the other info :)
I would still see what Pittsburgh wants for Nady, Bay or McCluth before going after Holliday.
completely agree…I think Holliday would be a very good player. The only problem is whoever trades for him/signs him will do so as if he is a superstar which he is not away from coors field. If you double his road numbers, you are looking at a guy who will hit about .300 with 20 HR and 100 RBI and he’d be coming to a hitters park in Shea/Citifield. Nady would cost less and is on pace to put up these numbers this year.
But dont forget to take into consideration who Holliday would have in the lineup with him. For arguements sake the lineup could look like
1 Reyes (s)
2 Castillo (s)
3 Wright (r)
4 Beltran (s)
5 Holliday (r)
6 Church (l)
7 Delgado (l)
8 Catcher
9 Pitcher
Any line-up that still has Beltran in 4 is still obviously flawed. If we’re going to trade serious prospects for a bat it should be a true clean-up hitter.
You could flip flop Holliday and Beltran but then you would have back to back right handed hitters in the lineup.
Outside of Coors Holiday isn’t a clean-up hitter either. He’ll basically give us the same power production we’re getting from Beltran.
Holiday bats second, Beltran third, Wright fourth. Case closed.
ick i just read your username.. Mets and fins? yikes!
Anyway, you would, but the majority would not. Pelf is coming into his own now and Holliday isn’t THAt great outside of Coor’s field.
I can respect a differing opinion, but who is in your rotation next year?
Santana, Maine and 3 question marks is your rotation if you trade Pelfrey.
You can get a corner OF a lot easier than getting a pitcher.
Pedro will not be on the team next year and I give Ollie only a 25% chance of being back. You CANNOT go into the offseason looking to replace 60% of your starting rotation.
Holliday would be nice, but you can’t trade a pitcher for him. If that means he goes somewhere else, then that is ok.
I would give Ollie a lot more than 25% chance of coming back. I would say more like 60% unless they give all of their attention to Sheets or CC.
But I do think Pedro is done. I can see him ending his career right where it started with the Dodgers. That would be interesting for Torre.
well, I wouldn’t want to give Ollie 5 years and $60 and I think SOMEONE will. I think it will be the Mets choice that Ollie is not back.
I like Ollie personally and want him back, but I do think the market will give him $12M a year and I don’t think the Mets will commit to him.
Ollie will command 4-5 years at about 13-15m a year.
do you really think the mets would be willing to give him that? I sure wouldnt.
Agreed…I think they’ll only go as far as a 3 year deal with that kind of money.
If we don’t give it to Ollie we’re going to have to give it to someone. Who do you propose we sign that will cost less and be as effective? We’re looking at either going with two guys in the 4 and 5 spot who are cheaper and aren’t very good, or giving the same money to players 4-6 years older than Ollie and/or injury prone. I mean Silva got 12 million a year, any pitcher is going to cost.
I don’t have the answer to that but I think it proves my original point. You can’t trade Pelfrey for a corner OF. You ask me who we can get as a SP for $15M next year and I don’t have a great answer. You ask me who we can get for a corner OF for the money Holliday will demand and I can probably throw at least 5 names out there.
in my opinion, that is why they need to keep Pelfrey.
And I agree with you.
last spring heilman was seen as a valuable setup man. I know he has pitched great lately, but I don’t know if he will be seen as that setup man anymore. do you stretch him out as a starter next spring?
maybe that is the option. sign Ollie, make heilamn a starter, and you still have money to play with to go after texeira and keep relatively the same payroll.
you still need a LF but maybe you get a veteran and hope FMart can be up around the all star break next year.
Great job Matt.
If the Mets were to deal Pelfrey, it would only be acceptable to me if in return we got someone like a Nate McLouth for instance. Another young guy, with a high ceiling, who can be under control for a while.
Pelfrey for Holliday… NO WAY
It would make our outfield one of the best with Matt Holiday on the Mets but to trade Mike Pelfrey hell no. Maybe a Fernando Martinez but not any mets starters. It would be dumb to give up a Carlos Beltran.
But i guess im speaking on the behave of met fans when i say a Matt Holiday to the mets would be great but not when we have to give up big pieces to our success thus far this season.
I think if you have a chance to trade Pelfrey for Holliday with not any other major prospects, you have to do it. Pelfrey is an unproven pitcher with a high ceiling thanks to his recent improvement. Holliday is a high-quality OF talent that is young and has another year on his deal, which if it works out would prolly sign big money with the Mets eventually.
I’d rather keep Fernando than keep Pelfrey. Fernando, Holliday, and Beltran in the OF would be deadly next year. Church could be moved for a #3 or 4 starter in the offseason if really needed (I would have him battle with Fernando in the spring though) .
But then whats your rotation look like for this year forget about next year……
Santana
Maine
Perez
Pedro
?? El Duque if he ever makes it back?
Next year would look worse
Santana
Maine
?
?
?
Pelfrey is just not that good
look at batting avg against and whip
he has pitched well lately, but still given up a lot of baserunners
sell high
He was drafted in 2005. It is now 2008. What is 8-5? Three years, and your’e ready to call him, “not that good.”
pelfrey for a guy playing over his head in the first half in the pressure-filled bubble that is…pittsburgh? no thanks.
Great job matt
no way should we trade pelfrey. that is craziness. it’s such a dumb move, omar would probobly do it.
How is it dumb? I love the improvement he is making, but for a top talent in Holliday. I think I would try to make the deal with Heilman and some good prospects, maybe like a Jon Niese or Kunz.
How can you people ignore his home / road splits? Away from Coors, he is a sub 800 OPS hitter. With below average defense. PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING! That’s how the Mets get back to being a power in the NL.
and that deal would prolly be shot down. Holliday will draw too much talent in a deal. And in that case, it may be more valuable to look at Pittsburgh with Nady, Bay, or McLOuth (who I doubt is available)
I would guess we would need to give up Fmart in any deal for Holliday which is why I think we can give less for a Nady or a Ibanez type of player.
the mets should get a guy like adam dunn who is young and has insane power (nothing the mets have right now). plus, he has low stock so we wouldn’t have to give pelfrey or fmart to trade for him.
I would love to have Adam Dunn in the of . I think he can play 1b as well if needed. You could take delgado out and move dunn to 1b and put endy in dunns spot in the of for defense
I dont think Dunn would be a good fit in NY. He has great power but I think he makes too many outs that fans would grow too impatient.
He doesn’t make more outs than the average player. The only difference is his outs land in the catchers mitt instead of a fielders. If he made to many outs his obp wouldn’t be so high. .
lol @ getting dunn for anything less than pelfrey or fmart
this is worse than the fan
He’s an FA, Dusty Baker doesn’t like him, and the Reds aren’t planning on offering him arbitration because they think he’ll accept and they don’t want to pay that 13 million. They’re going to end up selling low on him or letting him walk away in the off-season with no compensation.
So Gina. The real question is..
Do you put your Adam Dunn poster above your bed, or is that still reserved for your Justin TImberlake poster?
WOW.
I’m amazed that it took over 1 hour until someone in fantasy land brought up Adam Dunn on this thread. Floored actually.
Yea I would love Holliday, but I think your right. We won’t be able to get him without giving up Fmart. And in that case, I’d say no.
Holliday would be a good player in NY but not a superstar…i think if he and church played full seasons in NY in 2009, their numbers would be very similar….which is why it is not worth trading our best prospects for him….F-Mart – maybe. Pelfrey – no.
I value Fmart’s potential more than Pelfrey’s. Everyone loves him now that he’s won 5 starts in a row. Pelfrey would be intriguing to keep though, but so does Fmart.
So do i, but i also value Starting pitching over Corner outfielders….especially with this team, who doesnt have much in the system as far as starting pitching. it would be crazy to trade young pitchers under control for multiple years…that is not the blueprint for success…
look at boston, arizona, anaheim, oakland
Unbelievable. The guy is 24 yrs old, throws 96 mph, was drafted 3! years ago, looks like he might finally have pieced it together, and people want to give it away for ANOTHER quick fix solution. Build from within, with key FA signings. That’s how you build a dynasty. Not fire-selling every young player that has a good stretch.
While I agree with the no fire-sale approach, I think in a deal for Holliday, we’re not getting our usual over the hill injury prone 36 year old hitter. You would get a top notch OF under 30 years old. I dont buy into his home/away stats too much, I think he has too much talent to use that as an excuse.
But, on the other hand, I do have to agree with building long-term pitchers and in this case, Pelfrey, in his third “breakout” year does create some intriguing incentives.
If he has too much talent to use that as an excuse why is there always such a big difference? I don’t understand how you can just dismiss them. And it’s not like it was one year, it’s his career averages that have such a huge difference. What other explanation can there be other than Coors inflating his power numbers, he can’t just be getting unlucky year after year after year on the road.
pretty good job Matt…you are definately improving.
If they trade Pelfrey thay would almost HAVE to make Heilman a starter again. I saw Heilman pitch a one hitter against the marlins in I believe 04 when he first came up.
Maybe he would get his wish after all…..
Good show Matt, glad to hear you get more than 60 seconds to make your points. I laughed a little when you quirked your eyebrow when the host said you could find metsblog.com by going to the SNY “email” which is at sny.tv. Always amuses me when they put hosts in place that can speak with that smooth voice and have not as much of an idea of what they are talking about ;)
I can still tell that all three of those guys feel like wolves with you being the lamb … but that is beside the point. Stay strong man :)
As for Holliday … I’d probably trade Pelfrey for him in a heartbeat since Pelfrey is pitching way over his head and having Wright, Beltran and Holliday 3/4/5 for the next few years sounds pretty impressive. Holliday’s road splits are to be expected, but he does appear to me as an almost identical hitter to Wright even when you look at his splits. .300 hitter, .400 OBP, 25-30 HR and the ability to get the big hit. Sandwich Beltran between those two guys and slap a Jose Reyes in front and a Ryan Church on the back-end and opposing pitchers will have no wiggle room.
Why do you think Pelfrey is pitching way over his head?
Gina, talk some sense into these people!! Tell them to show me the numbers that say a 24 yr old with 30+ starts in the bigs is pitching “over his head.”
cause i dont think his pitches besides his fastball are that good.
I think he is a decent pitcher, probably a # 3 or #4 for a long time, but our outfield sux, and if we can get a consistent healthy power hitting outfield we have to do it
We are not making the playoffs with endy chavez and marlon anderson in our corners
if el duque comes back, we can def make the playoffs without pelfrey
He has a nice sinker also its not just fastballs and keep in mind he has a new pitching coach already this year.
He has two fastball pitches, and both of them are very good, he lacks a consistent breaking ball pitch, but at 24 he has time to develop either the slider or the change up, or bring back the curve.
And regardless of his pitches, any stat you look at will tell you he’s right about where he should be. If not getting tad bit unlucky. His BABIP is .344 which is above average and pitchers tend to stay around the league average.
In addition to all the points made above, there is something to be said for protecting homegrown talent. I happen to like Pelfrey a lot, I’m absolutely loving his recent breakthrough and I’d hate to throw that out along with my Go Big Pelf shirt.
IMO, I just don’t see how this team can afford to trade a starting pitcher, unless we were getting a pitcher back. We’re just to think in starting pitching depth. You trade Maine/Pelfrey for Holiday and you’re making us to dependent on the health of Pedro, and Perez not imploding. Especially once the post-season gets around.
I dont think we can trade any of our starting pitchers but I also dont think we can win with Tatis and Chavez as our corner outfielders. Church could be out longer than we think.
I know Ibanez is 36 but he is from NY and he has decent pop. Seattle is probably going to clean house except for Ichiro. I cant see them asking for a whole lot for Ibanez in a trade.
I have no problem making a trade, just not one that’s going to cost a starter. I’d be happy if they traded for someone like Adam Dunn, or Ibanez or Winn.
Ibanez
Dunn
Winn
Brian Giles perhaps
Try and steal DeJesus from KC maybe?
yes, b/c KC is stupid and NY is very smart and routinely steals young players from ignorant small market teams. IN fact, it was just reported that the Internet finally arrived in KC. So we better move quick before the word of our planned heist hits Middle America.
Starting pitchers
Jeremy Affeldt (30)
Tony Armas Jr. (31)
Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) – can opt out after ‘08 season
Paul Byrd (38)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33) – $8.75MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Ryan Dempster (32)
Chad Durbin (31)
Josh Fogg (32)
Jon Garland (29)
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
John Lackey (30) – $9MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Jon Lieber (39)
Esteban Loaiza (37) – $7.5MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.375MM buyout
Braden Looper (34)
Derek Lowe (36)
Greg Maddux (43)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Jamie Moyer (46)
Mark Mulder (31) – $11MM club option for ‘09 with a $1.5MM buyout
Mike Mussina (40)
Carl Pavano (33) – $13MM club option for ‘09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) – $8.75MM club option for ‘09 with a $2MM buyout
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30)
John Smoltz (42) – $12MM club option for ‘09
Brett Tomko (36)
Josh Towers (32)
Steve Trachsel (38)
Tim Wakefield (42) – perpetual $4MM club option
Kip Wells (32)
Woody Williams (42)
Randy Wolf (32)
So here are all the FA pitchers in 2009
I can see the Mets going after Ryan Dempster. He is having a nice walk year so far.
I don’t think he keeps it up. And if he does I’d still be weary of signing him.
But overall that list is kind of ugly. We can throw a lot of money at guys like Burnett or Sheets but then you have to worry about injuries. There’s Garland who I’d say it about on the same level as Perez but is 2-3 years older and will cost the same.
No its def not a pretty list at all. Maybe Josh Towers but he is 32 so anything more than 4 years would be too much.
Just another reason why they CANNOT trade Pelfrey.
You need to put a 43-56 on El Duques age.
how about Lacky? I dont really know what the situation is with him for next year but he has nasty stuff and already plays in a high pressure market.