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According to Joel Serman in the New York Post, “The Mets did consider 
Cincinnati’s Adam Dunn, but his poor defense, historical problems in clutch situations and high strikeout rates have eliminated interest.”
On Friday at SNY.tv, Ted Berg explained why the Mets should consider buying low on Dunn.
…as i said over the weekend, i’m not sure it’s a matter of buying low…it’s a matter of offering more than what the Reds believe they will draft with the two picks their likely to get in the off-season when dunn leaves as a free agent…
Depite hitting 29 home runs, with a .385 OBP, Dunn is batting just .238, has made five errors and has struck out in roughly 25 percent of his plate appearances this season.
phillies just sent eaton to the minors. that’s a shame.
I dont understaqnd why noone is bringing up Nelson Cruz from the Texas Rangers. Im sure he can be obtained. Check his stats!
i rather take a shot on him than depleting our system even more for these descent at best outfielders(bay,ibanzez, dunn)
Here’s something I don’t see anyone mention about Dunn. Why would we go out and acquire ANOTHER lefty? We need another righty bat.
Lefties (including switch hitters better from the left side):
Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Church, Endy, Schneider
Righties
Wright, Ramon Castro, Tatis.
I left out all our 2B candidates because they can’t hit righty or lefty.
We need another strong righty bat. That was Alou, but we saw what he’s about. Nady would have been perfect, but we’ll have to look elsewhere.
Dunn’s price way too high.
won’t catch a deep fly ball in Shea. Cincy’s park is easy because its so small.
way too streaky player to get!!
totally agree. finally someone with a clue about this stiff
I’m so happy that the Mets FO is not on the “he has a high OBP” bandwagon. This guy would be a terrible acquisition – a Mo Vaughn of 2008. Let Cincy deal his “k-in a big spot” @ss somewhere else…
Are you arguing against Dunn or Beltran?
Tell me you didn’t just put those guys in the same sentence? Delusional…
Beltran can actually run the bases, so his high OBP has much greater value
“. . . poor defense, historical problems in clutch situations and high strikeout rates have eliminated interest”
Thank you! I’ve been banging my head against the wall here on Dunn, getting called “clueless about baseball” because I’m one of those who see through his one-dimensional fantasy-league stats.
It’s gratifying to read that the team’s braintrust feels the same way.
Agreed. of course, “clutch” doesn’t persist season to season, so Dunn’s “historical problems in clutch situations” must be a mirage. Right stat guys? Right?
Agreed – hitting homeruns in bunches isn’t great. We need someone more consistent. His high K rate, which you can argue to death is a big factor here. He’ll hit HR’s, but he stirkes out a lot in big situations and doesn’t perform great with RISP.
The difference between Dunn and Thames is that Thames hits in the clutch….but I wouldn’t give up Scho for him….I’d do Parnell…but I’d rather have Ibanez….
K ~
This is foolish, Dunn consistently leads the league in homers every year, has a good zone rating in LF, and gets on base 39% of the time.
Instead of knocking things he’s bad at, how about looking at the things he does well.
Dunn also consistently plays in a bandbox
Have you ever watched him play? He doesn’t exactly hit wall scrapers.
I am not a Dunn advocate, and I certainly don’t have his HR distance statistics in front of me, but none of his that I’ve seen are of the “barely made it over the wall” variety, and his road slugging percentage is better than his home.
Umm, he is pretty much the same hitter on the road as he is at home.
His 39% OBP would go down considerably at Shea.
why? he’ll walk less?
His career BA, OBP & SLG at Shea:
.235 .323 .432
then I guess the answer’s a resounding “maybe!” ;-)
“His career BA, OBP & SLG at Shea:
.235 .323 .432″
That’s cause our pitching is and always has been siiiiick!!!! :-)
Or maybe that’s because Shea can turn a lot of his hits into outs which prompts pitchers to walk him less and pitch to him more. And that .432 SLG tells me that he K’s a lot more too. I’ll bet his k ratio is much higher at Shea… just the more proof that he doesn’t belong here
29 homers and only 68 rbi’s. thats a bad line.
.244 with RISP
not a clutch guy.
Define clutch? He’s hitting .238 on the season and hits slightly better with RISP. Part of the low RBI total is he is walked with guys on base, the other part is he does have a low average.
like I said. .244 with RISP. that is not good. we all know he walks. too low for the average. not clutch! anyone can tell you that.
Ryan Howard: 30 homers 94 rbis, .238 avg. however he is hitting .323 with RISP. THAT’S CLUTCH!
why am I comparing the two? cause they both Walk and K a lot.
Absolutely. The fact that the Mets really evaluate “clutchness” is very worrisome. Clutchness is the hardest thing to evaluate partly because it might not exist.
If all it took was Parnell, Evans and or Murphy. I would do it. Plus .900 OPS helps an outfield that trots Marlon Anderson out consitently.
“Dunn consistently leads the league in homers every year”
Good job buddy. Dunn has, in fact, NEVER led the league in homeruns. He has, however, led the league 3 times in strikeouts.
A stupid comment. It’s immaterial, he is among the league leaders every year and only Arod has more homers then him within the last 3 years.
Ryan Howard strikes out a ton and can play on my team any day of the week.
I think most people’s points aren’t that he can’t hit HR’s, but WHY should we give up more prospects for him? We can argue opinions on him until were blue in the face, but he strikes out, or walks, which is great, but the RISP stats don’t lie, hes not very good defensively and I just don’t see why we should give up prospects for a guy who may or may not help us.
If we knew Church wasn’t coming back, fine, but we don’t know and as some have mentioned, WHAT does Tatis have to do to get a shot around here?
Ok well you can have both of the strikeout, choke-artist kings on your team. Doesn’t anybody get it? It’s not always about power hitting, but timely hitting. If he’s batting .244 with RISP, doesn’t that throw up a red flag? He has hit 29 HR, and I’m willing to bet that at least 20 of them were meaningless. Same with Howard. Let’s see him step up and hit a HR with 2 on in the 9th, down by 1. It won’t happen.
I admit, I am one of the biggest Adam Dunn apologists. But his value is perceived low right now and he is a useful player. We should be able to get him without giving up F-Mart or Niese.
You can tear through the stats of almost anyone and come up with negatives (too many errors for Wright and Reyes), Pelfrey’s periphery numbers look terrible because of how he started, but we all know he’s better then that now.
Why are we even arguing this? Hasn’t it been made clear that the Mets aren’t even considering Adam Dunn? Any argument for or against Dunn is a moot point.
This is insane, you’re discounting the good things about his stats. I suppose you’re from the same camp that would try to say A-Rod is useless, or unclutch or some other rhetoric BS.
so..Wright having a pace for less errors than last year is bad???
BBDT, what is the point of getting him? hes adding salary we don’t need, he would cause us to need to cut someone we possibly need more, and hes just gonna get boo’d here in NY. I don’t even think its about giving up F-Mart or Niese, but our farm system needs to keep people and develop.
“Let’s see him step up and hit a HR with 2 on in the 9th, down by 1. It won’t happen.”
That’s funny, because Dunn has hit a HR down by 1 with 2 on in the 9th this season.
Mrose – my point is that no matter the player, you can go through someone’s stats and bring up negative points.DWright can make 15 errors and still be a good glove man in our eyes because of his outstanding range, and ability to make the great play.
The salary notion is a non-issue. We can’t be worried about adding on millions to the team when the alternative may be Endy Chavez playing every day and being overexposed. If he were to leave NY at the end of the year, we get two more 1st round draft picks, too.
Oh, also …
“Same with Howard.”
Really? Howard is hitting well above .300 with RISP and is racking up RBIs despite a .230-ish average.
Well, whats Dunn’s OBP with RISP? I wonder if that helps us determine if he is useless with RISP.
Dunn sucks. I would HATE to have RISP with 2 outs and have Dunn strikeout.
Some people like him because they want to see him hit HRs. I think the Mets have enough guys who can hit HRs.
The reason why Nady/Blake was good fit for the Mets was because their ability to hit doubles and drive in runs. Clearly Dunn is not a gap hitter.
Dunn’s past 4 years
HR RBI
46 102
40 101
40 92
40 106
If you hit 40+ HRs for 4 years and NEVER drive in 110 RBIs, you’ve got issues. Plus, Dunn has hit over .265 ONCE in his career and that was .266
And How much is he getting paid? and What do the Mets have to give up for him?
Dunn is a “one-zone” hitter. If the ball’s not in his zone he has the discipline to lay off. Hence the walks. No pitcher wants to throw a pitch in Dunn’s zone. He hits mistakes.
But this is the reason for his perceived lack of “clutch.” In game situations he’s facing better pitchers, or pitchers who are more focused, and less likely to feed him a mistake.
If he had other skills, as a fielder or baserunner, he’d be worthwhile. But this is not the guy that’s going to take us to the next level. He’s not the guy we want to see coming up in the playoffs in a tight spot. Or in the field in a close game. Or on the bases when we need a run.
Pitchers can avoid Dunn in Cincy because he hasn’t had much support in that lineup.
He’d probably still hit his 40 mistakes for HRs with the Mets, but I agree his walks would go down.
If he landed in our lap as a guy to bat 7th, I’d say OK take him. But he does not belong in the middle of the order on a team that hopes to contend.
Finally, someone that makes some sense! Adding him to be out 6th or 7th hitter strengthens the lineup considerably.
In the long run, Tatis is probably going to come back to earth, in which case Dunn is considerably better, though not without some major, major holes in his game. I agree that he’s worth pursuing if he falls in the Mets’ lap for nothing, but it looks like, given his free agent status (netting the Reds a couple of draft picks) that’s not going to happen.
It always amusing to see how entrenched people become in their positions — he’s either the worst player in the league or a premier power hitter. The reality is somewhere between, though I’ll admit, I don’t think he’s an all-star.
Opposing manager can get Dunn out with a lefty reliever.
With Dunn’s inability to hit lefties, what the Mets have to give up plus his salary is too much.
I would trade scho for thames in a heartbeat. If you really think that schoenweiss is a good relief pitcher then you must be smoking something really nice. The guy’s career ERA is 4.90. This is a PERFECT time to sell high on scott schoenwiess and get a solid right haded outfielder that averages 1 HR per 14 AB on his career…not to mention the fact that he has 20 bombs in 206 AB’s this year…
only knock on Thames is that this year he’s hitting .204 with RISP. but is hitting .667 with the bases loaded this year.
but yea I would do the deal. but the Mets would need to still get another arm in the bullpen, a lefty specifically.
I agree. Not necessarily about Thames, but certainly about selling high on Scho. This is as high a price as he’s going to fetch. Some can even argue that right now, if the Mets really are shopping him, he is probably worth more than Heilman. As long as we can replace him in the bullpen, this is a perfect time to package him off somewhere…
The difference between Dunn and Thames is also that Thames is a 31-year old platoon player who has never come remotely close to being an everyday player.
Dunn at least has established himself as a serious run producer and a guy who gets on base.
And yes, I know Dunn is a slow/ bad fielder, etc, but people are projecting things on Thames, when he is over 30 and has never played every day.
Dunn’s SOs would grow old REAL fast among the Shea faithful…
just say NO!
i really don’t think its intelligent WHATSOEVER to give up the farm, for what is available….unless we can give up A level prospects that have no upside….
this is what gets on my nerves…
Have you seen Dunn’s homers this season???? Holy Cow!!!!
and did the mets mentionvhis walks? How about his ability to play first?
So playing in a bandbox and the distance of his HRs makes him a very good player? Ha. . .
No, getting on base and slugging a ton make him a very good player. His batting average, like everyone else’s, is irrelevant. The % of strikeouts does diminish his value, but not by as much as most people would think (productive outs are only slightly better than unproductive ones, whereas a walk is much better than any out).
And his numbers in clutch situations – RISP, close and late, or whatever – are exactly in line with his overall numbers. But hey, who cares, lets just make stuff up about his “historic problems in clutch situations!
OrangeKing, the end of your argument is horrendous…
lets just make stuff up about his “historic problems in clutch situations!”
ummm just like you are saying lets get him cause of his historic ability to hit long HR and take walks???
The chances of him becoming the best clutch player are about as likely as him all of a sudden being a 15-20 hr guy….not that likely…
The horrendous part is failing to realize that batting average really does matter. It matters when there are runners on base. Lo and behold, Dunn doesn’t have as many RBIs as his “OPS” would suggest he should. YES, someone else has to get on base for Dunn to drive that person in, but that’s not the whole story here. Instead, we have a guy who is allergic to cutting down on his swing, and can’t drive runners in unless he hits one over the wall.
Any of the real, serious stat mavens would not take on the pedantic, impatient tone that our resident statheads seem to specialize in, because they understand the assumptions built into and the limitations inherent in the numbers. They’re useful and interesting, but they’re not definitive.
who the hell cares if he hits it 600 feet. He just is not a clutch player at all. bad defense and im glad the mets Fo is smart enough to realize it
“He just is not a clutch player at all…”
Based on what? Someone who said so?
You must realize that Church4Prez is here to annoy us, and nothing he posts is really relevant.
Ask him if he likes Ibanez…..
we already have a 1st baseman….???????
i was thinking the same thing
FORGET THE DARN STRIKEOUTS, but yes, as much as i like adam dunn, i think that the guy is a liability. he walks, but is poor defensively, he hits home runs, but he strikes out too much, and then he gets 100 runs, but is slow, they all backfire at him
I heard a guy in the bar the other day, talking about what a bum Dunn is, then in the very next breath talk about how Ryan Howard is a guy you could really build a team around. For those who don’t get this, whether you hate strikeouts or value “clutchness”: they’re the same guy.
HOWARD IS HITTING 340 WITH RISP YOU DOPE
Dunn’s career OBP (the number that actually means something) with RISP: .413
Howard: .426
Not as big a difference as you’d think. That said, Howard is a better offensive player than Dunn. I think some people give Dunn way too much credit to compensate for the people who look at his batting average and decide he’s awful.
Great…so he walks with men in scoring position. We lead the league in walks, we need someone to drive them in.
I think I’m bleeding from my ears from these comments…is your argument really, “He doesn’t make an out 41% of the time with RISP, but those are mostly walks so who cares.”? So 41% of the time he puts another runner on base (himself) and advances the other runners, and your complaining?
what’s that team that had a lineup full of those guys, that consistently scored the most runs and made the playoffs year after year? can’t seem to remember…
but seriously, dunn ain’t a perfect baseball player, but he’s certainly valuable, and would be even more so in this lineup.
Walking with runners in scoring position is just not the same as actually driving in runs. BA tells you more than OBP in that situation. Really.
OrangeKing is right, though. People get entrenched in their positions, and all of a sudden Dunn is either Babe Ruth or Kevin Baez — nothing in between. (If you’re a Kevin Baez fan, try Rey Ordonez, the overweight version, as a DH.)
you’re right, tmu, BA does matter, and so does not making an out. But BA is overvalued, and OBP is undervalued (though def less so than just a couple of years ago). Of course you want to drive in runs, but the next best thing is just getting on base. I don’t care if a guy leans in for a hbp, but the more guys you get on base, the more runs you eventually score. Heck, hit Castillo behind him when he comes back, since he has a .340 avg w/ risp, and then everyone on both sides of the argument wins!
it is very curious how dunn polarizes so many, though. like I said before: he’s not the greatest player, but he’s pretty good, and would probably be an excellent addition at the bottom of this lineup. Actually getting him and what that might require is probably too much, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world.
dude, you are the VERY LAST person on this site that should be calling anyone a dope.
Amen to that!!
Amen seconded.
I don’t know how I feel. I am not feeling clutch in this situation. I can’t comment because I have not been to October and don’t have a ring.
leave the kid alone, provides some needed humor so I can get through my work day…
if there’s anything that’s certain, it’s that criticism from others doesn’t deter him. I’m sure he can handle the annonymous online heat.
BA with RISP are very very very different.
As C4P and W88 noted, they do have some differences. Baseball reference dot com, splits, “clutch stats” shows those differences in, well, to finish your analogy, black and white.
they do have differences, and howard is slightly better offensively. I was (I thought obviously) oversimplifying. This is kind of what I meant in the earlier thread.
Weren’t the Reds shopping Ken Jr. earlier this year?
I always get suckered back into these Dunn debates even though everyone has beat this subject to death.
Bonds.
O no u din’it.
But this one name can go on for hours. Hours…..
I wish it were Thursday evening already.
I can’t wait till the trade deadline and all this arguing and nonesense is done
Bonds..
Manny
At least Manny bats right handed, which we need. Not that I want Manny, but we need a right handed bat in LF.
We will most likely see who becomes exposed to waivers. None of the current options available as a left fielder are priced right for the Mets. We do have rosters expanding in Sept., exceptional SP, good BP, over-achieving subs, a new attitude and momentum. We don’t need to force a trade, especially for Winn, Dunn or Thames. Ibanez would be nice, if he were simply given to us, but the Mariners know in two months that they will have two first round draft picks. All this talk is tiring.
Oh, and just for the record, Bonds!
I’m so sick of hearing the Dunn vs. Howard debate. The difference between them are their BA with RISP.
And as we all know BA is for stupids…OBP (and OPS) matters.
i wish everyone would just die
We all will. Unless you know something different?
You mean today?
I don’t get the hating on Dunn. Ks are an issue, but his defense can’t be much worse than Tatis, he is going to end the year with 40 HRs and 100 RBIs. The clutch thing is annoying to as mostly clutch stats are about random variation and his clutch stats should eventually start to trend to his norms. Even if all of the complaints about him are true, getting on base at 38% is huge and could only help the team. I’m all for giving up a couple of ok prospects to get him.
Well said
He will barely hit 100 rbi at his current pace…
Tatis defense has mostly been solid…. I mean at least next to Marlon Anderson. Tatis has more versatility too, he can play OF, 3B and 1B
I can’t beleive people are actually comparing Fernando Tatis to Adam Dunn. Unreal.
not a comparison level, just showing whats the real upgrade?
I can’t believe people aren’t giving Tatis his due!
The guy WAS a major league player and who’s to say he hasn’t found his stroke again? Regardless, given the situation of a hopeful Church comign back and being “free”… I’ll take Tatis the way he plays..he plays the game hard, he has a lot of fun, he seems to get along great and he has already delivered and likely won us a few games this year.
mrose, do you think that Dunn’s “low” RBI numbers have anything to do with the lack of men on base?
Dunn’s RISP is around .240 for the year (I think that’s what someone said). His career batting average is .247. So it’s not that Dunn has a low BA and is “not clutch,” it’s that, no matter what, he’s basically a .240 hitter (with a .400 OBP).
i can’t tell your point here…. part of me thinks you are pro dunn, others think you aren’t…
i’m just confused..I understand his low RBI numbers are a combo of not clutch hitting or taking walks, either way, the mets don’t need him IMO
You cited he is on pace to drive in fewer than 100 runs. My post was meant to illustrate the fact that Dunn’s low RBI numbers are partially due to the fact that Dunn needs men on base to drive them in, not just that he walks with men on or hits for a low average.
He also is a .240 hitter no matter what the situation… men on, bases empty, close, late, etc. It’s not that he’s “not clutch,” and goes into a seizure any time it’s after the 7th inning and/or men are on base. He’s just a .240 hitter all the time.
But… He walks a ton, and mashes the ball, thereby making him valuable. I am neither pro- nor anti-Dunn… we need to weigh the benefit of ANY player we get against the cost. I just go insane when people portray Dunn as a worthless pile of dogpoo because he “isn’t clutch,” “strikes out to much,” etc.
Dunn’s career numbers, BA, OBP, SLG:
2 out RISP: .216, .437, .441
Late Close: .232, .383, .490
So this is a positive comment right? Or are you complaining that his OPS is .878 with 2 out RISP? That’s seems to fit the general moronic category of “clutch”
To put these numbers in perspective, Wright’s OPS with 2 out RISP is .856 (hitting .263/.382/.474). I don’t hear any whining about his “clutchness”
I am deliberately, for entertainment purposes, simply throwing chum in the water.
In that case, I applaud you.
well done
Except that with less power and a lower OPS with RISP, Wright has way more RBIs. Why? Because OPS loses meaning relative to BA with RISP. Walks don’t drive runners in with RISP, unless Kenny Rogers is pitching. Groundouts sometimes do, however. Base hits nearly always do.
Tatis dives for the ball at least. Dunn is too busy letting balls drop in the outfield.
WAmetsfan, your comment is too logical for people who would rather quote incredibly unreliable “clutchness” stats. we all know guys who hit lots of HRs are completely useless on any offense especially teams that tend to get alot of people on base. batting in the 6 hole behind carlos beltran who always seems to need protection in order to produce would also not help the mets at all. we should just get someone like casey blake, that should really put a scare into opposing pitchers in a playoff series.
LOL. People do seem to miss the fact that we are a good OBP team and adding another guy to that would make us even better.
Casey Blake got traded to the Dodgers
Will people stop referring to guys like Dunn as “fantasy” players?
Other than homers, he’s a pretty terrible fantasy guy. Despite the OBP, he doesn’t score a ton of runs because he isn’t very fast, the rest of Cincy isn’t hitting, and he’s constantly put in strange spots in the batting order. He doesn’t drive in all that many runs because of the weakness of Cincy’s order this year, and the aforementioned strange spots in the batting order.
Things like OBP and OPS aren’t fantasy stats. At all.
also well said
For what it’s worth, 150 of Dunn’s 267 career homeruns have been solo shots.
128 of 267 have come with the run differential being +1,0, or -1.
7 game-ending homeruns, 84 go ahead, 31 tying.
I dont know how that compares to others, but chew on it for a little.
Wow u guys r tearin it up
Nice work.
Seems like that would be around average to me.
Again, assuming Church seems to be okay, forget about an OF – unless it is extremely cheap prospect wise – and get a relief pitcher.
Pitching wins and too many times our bullpen has let us down. Too many situational guys out there.
The problem with Dunn is you would have to bat him 4th, 5th or 6th in the order. And a strikeout is a rally killer. And he strikes out more than he walks. We don’t need that.
Another reason he walks as much is because he really doesn’t have anyone with significant power behind him. Putting him in front of Delgado means he strikes out more. I’m not sure how he helps us that much.
All we need to do is get a guy that can fill in and play at a starting level. We need a guy of at least Angel Pagan or better. Just a little more depth.
Yes but he gets on base more than he SO.
We can go on and on about Dunn. We already have.
It’s plain and simple actually. No matter how you look at it, you can’t make this year’s team worse by putting Dunn in the lineup.
You don’t like the fact that he does not drive runners in and only gets on base or hits a HR? Then put him in a position with RBI guys after him. He will still be on base.
And all the comments about him being slow, they need to watch a few games. He is very quick for his size. He even steals the occasional base.
No, a double play is a rally killer. A strikeout is an out.
And no, if Delgado keeps violating NL pitching, putting Adam Dunn in front of him means more HOME RUNS and fewer strikeouts for Dunn, because it means that pitchers cannot afford to be cute with him.
I just want to add that as a team we are SLG at .415, the league avg. is .413. Adding Dunns slugging % would help us out a lot combined with the fact as a team we have the 3rd best OBP in the league.
I’d bat him 2nd. Jose has more chances to steal, Wright protects him, and would have more chances to drive in runs.
1. Reyes
2. Church
3. Wright
4. Dunn
5. Beltran
6. Delgado
7. Schneider/Castro
8. Castillo/Easley
Looks like an AL type lineup to me…
Dunn batting 4th??? That’s just plain stupid
That’s not stupid at all. Dunn would have the highest OPS of anyone on the team. The cleanup spot is not the place to bunt for a hit or knock a bloop single. I personally would slot him 5th or 6th while Delgado is still raging but 4th would be a logical choice.
Yea i remember what a great team we had years ago when everyone was wiffing at the plate. I say, PASS!!
Dunn’s Ks are contagious? If we sign him “everyone” will start whiffing?
I dont understaqnd why noone is bringing up Nelson Cruz from the Texas Rangers. Im sure he can be obtained. i rather take a shot on him than depleting our system even more for these descent at best outfielders(bay,ibanzez, dunn)
if the reds are looking to dump salary then dunn’s worth a b-level propect or 2. no way f-mart or niese level guys.
i’m sure he’s a butcher at 1st, but the team needs to start thinking about 1b next year. delgado needs to go regardless of how he does the rest of the year and it doesn’t look like there is much in the minors for the next 2 years or in free agency. i don’t think texiera is coming here nor would i give him a huge, long term deal.
i’d do nothing in the trade market unless it’s a steal based on a salary dump.
OT but Matt, i have a question. manuel emphasizes that if you are playing well, you will continue to play. but it seems like everytime ramon castro hits a homerun, schneider is in there the next day, going 1-4 with a weak single with no one on. what gives?
Schneider should be getting 2 starts a week, tops.
The comparison is really stunning: in about 40% of the plate appearances (103 vs. 253), Castro has as many RBIs (20), three times as many homers (6 vs. 2), and almost as many runs (14 vs. 18). Schnides’s line is a pisspoor 246/337/300, while Castro is mashing at a 290/365/538 clip. Our lineup is radically different with Castro’s bat in there.
And despite Schnides’s reputation for defense and pitch-calling, his catcher’s ERA is 4.01, while Castro’s is 3.68. There may be some randomness at work there, but I’m not even convinced that Schnides is any better calling pitches and preventing runs until I see evidence to the contrary.
Props to Jerry Manuel for giving Ramon many more starts than Willie. Castro’s continued production makes me wonder what would have happened if Willie had given him 50 of P-Lo’s at bats last year.
I read or heard something a while ago that said the FO went to Castro and flat our asked him to be the everyday C this past off-season, to which he repiled, “No, thanks.” That he simply is one of those guys who enjoy the back-up role for the little more freedom it allows. ie, late to a game in SD because I didn’t know what time it was.
You are correct – Castro was quoted as saying he doesn’t want to be a starting catcher for any team, he’s perfectly happy with his 2M a year roll as back up catcher.
Throw in there the fact that he has arthritis of the back, and you’ll know why you’re never gonna see Ramon playing more than 30% unless absolutely necessary. Otherwise, you’re probably looking at a trip to the DL. That’s what landed him on the DL last September.
You guys think we’d have any shot at David DeJesus?
I brought this up a few weeks ago.
Probably no chance.
No. DeJesus is under contract for at least 3 more years.
no
I think people are attracted to Dunn because he hits lot of HRs. Think of why the Mets were interested in Nady and Blake. Its not because their ability to HRs, but they have power AND hit for the average.
It’s not the HR’s at all. It’s the fact that he is available and has an OPS that would lead the team. That means he gets on base and hits HR’s.
Discussing Dunn here at this point is like debating abortion or euthanasia.
Basically.
Except (I hope) with far less likelihood that someone among us is going to stand outside Shea stadium and ironically shoot the first person they see in a ‘Dunn’ jersey.
Might have to keep tabs on church4prez.
HA!
Under no circumstances would I advocate euthanizing Dunn.
I just wouldn’t trade Niese for him.
I would also abort that trade
Dunn breakdown –
He k’s A lot. He hits 240+ with RISP (above his normal avg which is 230+). Every year he hits 30+ hr and drives in 90+. Contrary to popular belief his HR numbers at shea would probably not go down as he hits just as well if not better on the road, and almost none of his home runs aren’t of the tape measure variety. If you would like to talk splits go look at holliday who is the king of colorado.
He would have the highest OBP on our team. He is not a good defender. He can protect other hitters in a lineup. He OPS’s over 900. Marcus Thames, although having a somewhat similar year, has never consistently come close to dunns stats, thames doesn’t walk and pitchers do not fear him as much as dunn, hence the low OBP for Thames.
Dunns numbers are not just about fantasy, they are about being on base more often THEN ANY MET IN THE LINEUP (although I think wright may be slightly better now). Perhaps fans will not like him, they didn’t seem to like delgado either and same can be said of beltran too, but the guy would help. I would not send fmart or niese but I would make any other prospect (not flores) incluiding murphy available.
People must get over the fact that “clutchiness” means very little from year to year. If you don’t believe me head over to baseball prospectus and check out the stats. In the last 15 years only 2 players numbers have consistently gone up in clutch situations (defined quite well by the articles) – 2 players, 15 years.
In 93 career plate appearances at Shea, Dunn has 4HR, 11RBI, BA .235, OBP.323, SLG .432.
Can’t really use that for anything. Way to small of a sample and who knows who was pitching.
Dunn cannot protect other hitters. Opposing manager would just bring in lefty reliever to face him.
Against lefties, he’s batting .202. at home .234 away .170!!
He has hit ONLY 5 of his against lefties and ALL of them are hit at home.
He has gotten ONLY 15 RBIs against lefties and 11 of them are from home and ONLY 4 away!!
4 RBIs against lefties in away games?? He does not provide protection on the Mets lineup.
He has hit ONLY 5 of his 29HRs against lefties and ALL of them were hit at home**
Dunn is just useless against lefties. So Manuel will probably start Tatis on LF against lefties. What would be the point of getting Dunn? AND pay him pro-rated 13MM and give up prospects?
No way Jose.
Monday night’s lineup vs. Marlins
Here’s the lineup for the Monday night series opener against the Marlins at Dolphin Stadium:
Reyes, ss
Chavez, rf
Wright, 3b
Delgado, 1b
Beltran, cf
Tatis, lf
Easley, 2b
Schneider, c
Maine, rhp
***
Other tidbits:
• Pedro Martinez has arrived in Florida and should rejoin the Mets on Tuesday. He’s officially listed for Friday’s start in Houston. Pedro will throw a bullpen session tomorrow, with batters standing in the box but not swinging at Dolphin Stadium. He’ll be capped at about 80 pitches against the Astros. Martinez returning after a team off-day is by design, since it ensures a rested bullpen as a hedge against a short outing.
• Ryan Church will begin taking batting practice Tuesday, and ideally play in minor-league games this weekend with St. Lucie and be activated next week against the Padres.
• Jerry Manuel has anointed Fernando Tatis as his left fielder barring a trade. Translation: When Church returns, Endy goes to fourth outfielder and defensive replacement.
• Manuel plans to stay away from Aaron Heilman for a second straight game today, after Heilman tossed three innings Saturday. Told he could now use Heilman as a starter, Manuel said he told Heilman the very same thing.
Judging from the grammar and spelling, you definitely copied this from somewhere…
How about footnoting that you copied and pasted from Adam Rubin’s blog??
Reyes, Dunn, Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Church/Tatis, Easley, Castro/Schnieder.
That lineup would score some runs for sure.
And don’t go on about Dunn being station to station as that is not true at all. He is actually a good baserunner.
Look at that OBP and OPS.
Wright, Delgado and Beltran would have RBI field days.
This dunn battle is one we dunn haters can;t win
We Dunn haters don’t need to win, because the Mets ain’t gettin no DUNN!
Hey guys, I got one, lets stop being so reDUNNdant.
Has anyone used that one yet?
I haven’t seen it, so according to me, you Winn :-)
Both of you please report to the NY Post immediately, you would both be a great improvement on their current crop of headline writers :-)
Yes, Nightlife, it’s been DUNN before.
Good one.
Outs for Dummies
Strike outs are a type of out. Other types of outs include fly ball outs and ground ball outs. Outs are generally created equal. While some non strike out outs can seem “productive,” i.e., grounding out but advancing a runner, striking out also keeps a slow runner out of inning ending and/or rally killing double plays. Thus, on balance, outs are created equal. A player’s OBP, generally, measures a player’s ability to not make outs. Not making outs, i.e., getting on base, correlates to runs and in fact, correlates more than other stats, such as batting average. Runs wins games. In fact, scoring runs is the goal of an offense. Adam Dunn is not good at not strike out – one type of out. He is, however, very, very good at not making other types of outs. On balance, he does not make a lot of outs. Therefore, he has a stellar OBP. Consequently, his skill set, generally, should lead to a lot of runs. Scoring runs is good. Having Adam Dunn and his stellar OBP (not even taking into account his power) in the Mets offense instead of other players with much lower OBP (and power) would be a good thing. Got it? Good.
I think I’m going to print this and hand it out on street corners
please stop it billy beane please….and someone tell me how striking out with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out is the same as hitting a sac fly to the right fielder?
It’s not.
But striking out with a slow runner on first is better than hitting a soft grounder for a double play. It might mean that player is incapable on even putting the ball in play, but that doesn’t mean the outcome isn’t the best of the worst-case scenarios.
oh for god’s sake….put the ball in play. make the defense have to do something….maybe they make an error….at least make contact.
id take contact, any type of contact over striking out any day.
Any ball in play gives the chance fo errors and inning extension. Strikeouts almost never result in errors.
Fine point. I wasn’t thinking. 5 pm and my brain is fried.
Exactly.
The last person I want up in a situation with a tight game, 1 out and a runner on 3rd is Adam Dunn. In that spot you’re hoping for a pop-up or a ground out that will score the runner. A walk just sets up the double play and even then Dunn would probably swing and miss at strike three anyway.
This is why Youkilis is 10 times the player Adam Dunn is. He gets on base, hits for power AND can move a runner over.
OK, but I doubt Youkilis is available. Of the players who are rumored to be available, who DO you want up in that situation?
Church is coming back. I’m happy with the team as is and would prefer to keep the prospects. I’d like to see them focus on another arm for the bullpen.
Dunn for Carp and some pitcher, fine. Dunn for Niese or F-Mart, not fine. You’re right — bullpen arms are the way to go.
First of all, there is no guarantee we get anything out of Church this year. Second of all, i am not sold on this offense the rest of the year as presently constructed. Third, Dunn is a huge upgrade over Chavez and probably Tatis once his hot streak is over. And once Tatis’ hot streak is over, and the Mets offence fails to score runs and cost us the division title, all you Dunn haters will be whining and complaining wishing Omar wouldve “Dunn” something at the trade deadline. IF you can get Dunn without giving up our “untouchable prospects” you do it without hesitation.
Very well said.
I meant well said by Joe C.
Straw, even if Dunn fails to convert in a situation where he has a guy on third and one out at a somewhat lower rate, he makes up for it — and then some — by getting on base at a much greater clip.
Not to mention, if Dunn comes up with a guy on 2nd and 3rd, he’s about three times more likely to hit a three-run home run as Xavier Nady or Casey Blake. And about eight times more likely to do so than Randy Winn. More than twice as likely as Raul Ibanez.
I mean, it doesn’t even compare.
You and your fantasy stats should just stay in your mothers basement and leave baseball to the guys who appreciate scrappy gritty gamers with heart who play the game the right way.
LETS GET ECKSTEIN!
And Joe McEwing. We could sac fly and sac bunt our way into the playoffs, and do it by playing the game “right” and with “gamers” who are “clutch” and don’t K! Whheee!!!
We see this same post so often — the sarcastic “let’s get Eckstein” post from the point of view of a straw man Joe Morgan — and it never becomes meaningful. Please stop posting it.
YOU KIDS GET OFF MY LAWN!!!
(Erstad)
That’s right, young, “hip” advertising-susceptible baseball fans who wear faded T-shirts and drive Volkswagens with iPhones stapled to their faces are really into stats, while only crusty old know-nothings think that there’s more to the game. Fools!
If you guys think you’re clever, try to come up with something clever to say, instead of “tee-hee — Eckstein sucks!!!”
Teehee Juan Pierre sucks?
But making fun of Eckstein is the bane of my existence.
“The metric system is the tool of the devil! My car gets forty rods to the hogshead and that’s the way I likes it.”
Shouldn’t you be reading “WIRED” to see which plastic eyeglass frames are supposed to make idiots look hip and intelligent?
“I used to be with it, then they changed what it was. Now what was it isn’t it, and what is it is weird and scary to me. It’ll happen to you too.”
I don’t even know what WIRED is. And I have a small head so I look ridiculous in those types of glasses.
Go with Strelnikovs (sp?) John Lennon would approve. Or is he too old?
I have a rule about putting anything I can’t pronounce on my face.
LMFAO
Why so patronizing? Strikeouts simply are not equal to other outs. Maybe in Dunn’s case, because he really is a poor baserunner, his ground balls would be DPs more frequently than other players, but how many double plays is he really “saving” relative to balls that could advance runners — or even score them?
And, of course, there’s the rest of his game. When he gets on base, how many runs does he cost because he lacks the speed to take an extra base? How many runs does he cost as a defender? How many times does he fail to bring in runners from scoring position because doesn’t put the ball in play — lots of K’s and lots of walks, which, with RISP, are much worse than hits, especially in late situations, when you need a run or two.
SO, he is not the megastar that the pedantic stat-heads think he is. Nor is he a complete slug. He’s a decent player, and probably an upgrade over the conscious version of Tatis, but not worth what he’d cost.
Do you really know what he would cost???
Well, the post seems to suggest something akin to the two draft picks they’d get for losing him as a FA. Otherwise, no, I don’t.
Speed to take an extra base is a very small part of the game, unless you’re Jose Reyes or Juan Pierre. It’s an extremely small part of the value of O.B.P. regardless of who you are. Speed is padding. It’s nice to have all else being equal. It is most assuredly not a good reason for passing on Adam Dunn.
What about someone like a David DeJesus? He seems to be coming into his own a bit, and is a hometown boy. The Royals will most likely be sellers again, but must be tired of getting fleeced.
no chance.
No chance. He signed a pretty cheap contract extension a while back and has like 3 years left.
Unscientific (or sabermatic) as it may seem, my test for going after Dunn or not, comes down to whether I would be excited to see him come up with the game on the line. Although I certainly haven’t seen that much of him, I have to say that the answer is probably not.
I anticipate good things happening when Wright, Reyes, Beltran, & current versions of Delgado, Tatis and even A Reyes and Castro are put in a game-winning situation. Somehow, my gut instinct (hello, Willie!) says that Dunn is most likely to swing and miss when it matters the most.
I would be unhappy to see the mets FO give up any decent prospects for the guy…
If you anticipate good things when Beltran comes up in game winning situations then you must be the most optimistic fan on this blog.
He may be scuffling a little bit, but if he were to get hot any time soon while the rest of them still swinging it well…he could carry the club another two weeks and put some serious distance between them and the rest of the east. (sigh)
I agree. He CAN carry the team all by himself if he gets really hot.
Well, maybe I am the ultimate optimist as you say, but I’ve watched Beltran for several years now, and his current struggles at the plate are not enough for me to declare him an offensive bust…
I saw him slash the ball with authority yesterday, and yes, I’m confident that he’s capable of a game-winning stroke at any time…
Beltran’s lifetime BA is .279, but .306 with RISP.
I’m not saying he’s an offensive bust. I’m saying he’s struggled most of this year.
The main thing with Beltran this year is his slugging is pretty down from previous years.
It’s down from his last two years but it’s not to far from his career averages. He’s still hitting for extra bases it’s just his home run power seems lost.
He can still hit the ball to Saginaw Michigan when he gets all of it. He’s just not getting al of it these days. Weird. Power is generally consistent and improves with age up to a certain point (that Beltran hasn’t reached.)
there has to be a reason that the Reds with all their so called sluggers have been god awul for so long. yes a lot of it has to do with their pitching staff, but harang, volquez, cueto, arroyo, ____ doesnt sound that bad to me.
i think situational hitting is a major problem with that team…starting with Dunn im sure.
I think Dusty Baker is a bigger part of it. They didn’t have Volquez or Cueto until now, when he took over as manager. And I’m sure him not wanting to call up Bruce because of his man love for Patterson and his not wanting to play Votto because Votto doesn’t swing at enough bad pitches didn’t help.
Dusty Baker, not once but twice, wanted to sacrifice with his sluggers in extra innings this year, only to watch said slugger hit a 3 run walk off dong.
The person who sponsors Adam Dunn’s baseball reference page is a Cub fan who states on the page that he hopes Dunn signs with the Cubs next year but until then asks Dunn not to “listen to a thing that Dusty Baker says.”
Also they’re 18-9 in 1 run games. So I’d say they’re “clutch”. And do you know who the top 4 teams in the NL for BA with RISP and 2/outs are?
The Pirates
The Cardinals
The Astros
The Dodgers
all below .500. The Cubs are second to last and the Brewers are 2 spots below us. The Phillies are right above us. So I’d say there’s not much of a correlation.
When did the Cardinals end up below .500? How long was our series with them?
Pirates are fourth in the league in runs, and have a team ERA of 5.20, meanwhile the Astros are 13th in team ERA.
Dodgers are 9th with RISP overall.
I actually meant to do RISP not RISP w/ 2 outs I’m not sure why I did the other one.
But anyway we’re 3rd in the league in runs and 11tth in avg with RISP. The Astros are 13th in the league in runs as well as ERA. The Marlins are 10th win RISP and 6th in runs scored.
Straw, 2005-2007 Reds were top 4 in HR each year, top half in runs scored, top third on OBP. Their offense wasn’t the problem, pitching was.
Hold on — they were top 5 in HR and OBP, but only top half in runs scored? I thought OBP = runs??? Certainly slugging wasn’t the problem. Why didn’t they score more runs?
They were 4th in runs in 07, 6th in runs 06 and 2nd in runs 05.
OK, FINE!
Small ballpark.
On the road in 05
2nd in slugging
5th in obp
5th in runs
On the road in 06
11th in obp
10th in slugging
13th in runs
On the road in 07
7th in slugging
5th in obp
8th in runs
so basically there run ranking seems to hang pretty closely to their obp & slugging rankings regardless of whether they’re on the road or not.
What about BA?
in 05
7th overall
13th on the road
In 06
15th overall
15th on the road
In 07
9th overall
4th on the road.
Shorter Cerrone: Dunn is a big stoopid head because he “historically” doesn’t hit in the clutch, and strikes out and somebody once told me he’s “apathetic” toward the game of baseball.
Nevermind that we might be able to buy low on a guy who hits 40 HRs and walks 100+ times pretty much every season.
Last time a Met drew 100 walks in a season?
John Olerud, 1999, 125 walks. Only Met to do it ever.
I posted this the other day in another thread, but in my opinion, it bears reposting here.
Yes, I know that fan forums are not the most reliable sources for determining a players worth, but I think it’s more than a little interesting that the following post generated 150+ responses, nearly all in agreement with the original sentiment.
On July 21, on the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Reds fan forum a thread was started entitled:
“BIG FAT DUMB USELESS LOAFING PATHETIC DONKEY”
Personally, I’m more than a little hesitant to add a “donkey” to our ballclub…
We’ve said much worse about Delgado.
Not just Delgado, for the first two months of the season people were saying stuff like that about Reyes.
Yeah, but who wouldn’t love a donkey?
Nightlife, have you ever been to Tijuana? They love donkeys there in ways you should never imagine, or um, so I’ve heard.
BONDS.
James Bond
From ESPN trade blog:
• The Red Sox ran Manny Ramirez’s name past the Mets in the last 24 hours and were turned down flat, according to one source with knowledge of those discussions. So we can cancel that Manny Watch in Queens.
These comments read like a firejoemorgan.com dialectic.
i should e-mail them the link to this thread. every idiotic baseball platitude they’ve mocked on their site has been posted in this very thread.
For what it’s worth, Dunn would have the 2nd highest OPS+ on the Mets behind only Wright.
Not that anyone here cares for “fantasy stats”
it’s funny that people call OPS a fantasy stat (i know you’re mocking the fools that think batting average > every other stat).
OPS has been shown to be the very best predictor of how many runs a team will score. (The correlation between OPS and runs scored is very high). Guess which stat has the lowest (out of AVG/OBP/OPS) correlation between it and runs scored? batting average! Whoa!!!
While this is true.
I am referring OPS+ which is a stabilized gauge of a player’s season.
100 being league average and every point above or below being a percentage point better or worse than league average.
For example Chipper leads the majors at 182 this year.
Wright is at 141
Dunn is at 138
No I agree, because a Sports writer in Cincy called Dunn a “useless Donkey” we should stay away.
In fact (and this will infuriate those stat-geeks) I rank “random unnamed sports writers in the Cincinnati metropolitan region” 3rd on my list of important criteria for ranking baseball players. It falls right behind:
1. Their Zodiac sign
2. What Steve Phillips thinks of them
Ah, biting sarcasm…So what you’re really saying is ignore the rantings of posters to fan forums…
I believe you’re absolutely right! Talk to the hand…
Oh, snap!
In no base clogging donkey news, I’m very excited that I get to view tonight’s game via the Marlins broadcast.
UGH.
IMO more tolerable than a DBack, Padre, Philly, Yankee or either Chicago team broadcast by a wide margin.
Q: Who announces games in hell: them, the Nats’ announcers or the D’backs’ announcers?
A: Trick question — we all know it’s Buck and McCarver.
I don’t know about this. Since we are talking about the Reds here anyway, Brantley is just an idiot and absolutely painful to listen to.
If nothing else I give Adam Dunn credit for allowing us all to make over 220 comments none of which pointed out that Matt referred to the NY Post writer as ‘Joel Serman.’ (until now)
This is a brief, short story on the not so distant future of the Mets.
Sid Finch Part Deaux aka the Wilmer Flores Story.
by Jeff Finkle.
Legend has it that Wilmer Flores was sent to Earth from the dying planet of Krypton and was raised by his adopted father Chuck Norris. I hear his hand eye coordination is so quick he can catch a fly with chopsticks. It’s been told that whenever he goes hitless in a game, he flies around the Earth spinning it backwards on its axis turning back time a few hours, so he can get four more hits that day.
I also heard a yarn spun from the old men in the neighborhood that as a ten year old pitching phenom, he once struck out the Wammer on three straight pitches and would be pitching right now if he had not been not shot by his girlfriends at the time, who just happened to be both Olsen twins. Coincidentally, the bullet was absorbed by the cigarette case he had in his uniform (in which he kept his Big League Chew).
After returning to his adopted father Chuck Norris’ farm, he became disillusioned over his future in baseball. He developed a slight drinking problem at ten (he was born with the ability to grow a Rollie Fingers mustache, which got him into most bars). His fondness for Kalhua and Ovaltine actually prompted bartenders to name his drink the “Wilmer Russian”(which should not be confused with the “Wilmer Fez” drink, which is a mixture of tequila and Pabst Blue Ribbon). One night he saw a bolt of lightning hit a tree on his farm, so he took the fallen branch and carved it into a bat. He named that bat “Holy Jesus” which is what he said after he saw the lightning shoot through the sky. That same night he decided to quit drinking and dedicate his life to baseball. He condensed his 12 steps into 2 and considered himself cured. He honed his skills and built up his massive arm strength by swinging his bat through the torrent of rushing water at the base of a waterfall. He then deemed himself to be ready for the big time and called up Omar Minaya to sign his contract. He had just turned eleven and was set to take on the world. The rest, as they say, will be history.
i don’t see why people care so much about K’s. what’s the difference between rolling over to the second baseman, popping up to the infield, and striking out? none? right.
tmu – batting average is a terrible stat. have you seen bull durham? if so, i hope you remember the scene where crash talks about the difference between a .250 and .300 hitter. Essentially, the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter over 550 at bats is 27 hits. Over a six month season (26 weeks), that’s effectively a hit a week. One seeing-eye single, one duck fart over the shortstop. You’re attributing THAT to skill? Sorry, I can’t do that. It’s luck. Batting average is worthless and tells me nothing. Give me OPS any day of the week.
Dunn is certainly a valuable player. Tell me, would you rather have a .300/.345/.400 slap hitter or a .250/.390/.550 power hitter? The .390 OBP power hitter gets on base more. that is the objective of the batter: to get on base. Who cares how you get on?
Batting average is luck? .250 vs. .300 is luck??? Go tell that to Keith Hernandez.
so because one guy got lucky and his seeing eye single snuck past derek jeter, but another guy hit a line drive that omar vizquel dove and caught, the guy who hit the seeing eye single is a better hitter? you DO realize that’s what you’re saying, right?
there’s a lot of math that’s probably over your head (simple regression analysis, but i’m not sure you’ve mastered addition) showing that batting average is completely unreliable and fluctuates far too much from season to season to be used as a major indicator of offensive skill.
Your ad hominem is out of line. Trust me, my education is just fine, in mathematics and other areas. We’ll leave it at that. You need to grow up.
trust me, i’ve grown up. i’ll take back the insult, but i’m trying to get you to see that batting average is NOT a good stat with which to evaluate a hitter.
I think there’s a difference between saying it’s overvalued relative to OBP or SLG, and saying that it’s “NOT a good stat with which to evaluate a hitter.” I think it’s a valuable piece of data, and Dunn shows you why and how. Once you get runners on base, hits > walks.
Only if those hits are for extra bases. Other wise what’s the difference? Maybe a few times a year an error happens or if the player in front of you is fast he can stretch it out but I doubt that happens enough over 162 games for it to be truly significant in determining what players are more valuable than others.
Not true:
Man on first — BB — 1st and 2nd; 1B — 1st & 2nd or 3rd.
Man on second — BB — 1st and 2nd. 1B — 1st and RBI or 1st & 3rd.
Men on 1st & 2nd — BB — bases loaded. 1B — bases loaded or 1st & 2nd or 3rd w/ RBI
You get the idea, I’m sure.
97%-99% of the value of O.B.P. lies in two facts:
You are on base: i.e. you have the opportunity to score.
You did not make an out: i.e. you did not detract from your team’s opportunity to score.
1%-3% of the value of O.B.P. lies in the opportunity to steal a base.
In baseball, the turnaround from being on base to making an out is huge. There is no neutral. You either dramatically increase your chances of scoring by getting on base or dramatically decrease your chances by making an out. In that sense, every event is of double importance.
Batting average is a flawed stat because it does not address the issue. Average treats the base-on-balls as a neutral event when it is anything but. (It also treats a home run and a single as equivalent events. They are most emphatically not.)
This is not to say that the stat does not have its uses. It can indicate whether O.B.P. is hit-loaded or walk-loaded. And sometimes the HR and the base-hit are near-equivalent events-like in the bottom of the ninth inning with a man on third and two outs in a tie game. This is why “clutch” players tend to corelate with high-average players. As the leverage of a batting situation increases, the homer and the single converge in value. Dereck Jeter, for instance, gets praised endlessly for his “clutch” ability. In reality, he is a high-average hit-loaded hitter who delivers “clutch” hits at the same high rate that he delivers his regular not-so-clutch hits.
But that’s a double edged sword. Hits are more valuable than walks; they are also more erratic. Average fluctuates drastically throughout a career or even a season. IsoD does not–and generally improves throughout a career. Jeter, for instance, is a .280 hitter this year. Since he is also a singles hitter, and only an average base-on-balls guy, this drops his value tremendously. A .280 year from Jeter is a sub-league-average year (.280/.345/.400-for which he happens to get paid $21M). A .280 year from Carlos Beltran, on the other hand, leaves you with his 2006 MVP caliber campaign of .275/.388/.594 and great defense. (Jeter-not so much.)
So yeah, Dunn’s .235 BA is not meaningless, but it’s much more meaningless than Cerrone thinks it is. And let’s remember that Cerrone 2 years ago was talking about how great Zito would look in a Met uniform, and this past offseason was clamoring for LoDuca (2008:.233/.301/.286-astonishingly dismal) If Cerrone wants something, it’s a good bet that the proper course of action is the opposite. Similar to Dusty Baker.
I have no idea where and/or how Joel Serman makes sense of his Adam Dunn statement. Serman explains how “The Mets” considered Dunn, however, due to Dunn’s poor defense, non-clutch production, and numerous strikeouts – “The Mets” became no longer interested.
What??!!! Are you kidding Me??!!!
First of all, I’d love to ask Joel Serman who was the person or persons that told him this?? I want a name Joel!! I cannot make any sense of Serman’s statement as-is, because it clearly doesn’t mention any name(s), nor does he even imply who may have communicated this stunning news to Serman.
Secondly, due to his statement having no accountability behind it, than I must respond by implying that it was Joel himself who said and wrote these words.
Needless to say, who in their right mind would NOT want Adam Dunn on their team? The last-time that I checked, Joel, there’s another slugger out there who strikes-out many times – yet, somehow-someway he leads the entire Major-League in RBIs!!
Does a . . . Ryan Howard sound familiar?? He ain’t so bad huh?!!
The point is that Howard, Dunn, and several other big-time sluggers – such as another well-known player in Barry Bonds – all strikeout a lot; that’s what they do; they also produce big-time numbers! MVP-type numbers!
Lastly, this is the first-time that I’ve heard about the Mets being interested in Dunn. Moreover, with the lack of support for Serman’s content, added to my first-time hearing about it, has me believe that it was a poor attempt to spread a rumor.
Cmon now.
lol, how can people knock Dunn for something (poor defense,lack of clutch hitting) when the Mets are below league average in those categories themselves???
How about the fact that this team is finally playing like a cohesive unit, and while tatis and endy are not superstars, they are great pieces to the puzzle that is the 1st place NY Mets. I for one do not want to screw with that.
Okay. BA with RISP is a jokey stat. OBP with RISP only slightly more so.
How about OPS with RISP? Now we’re weighting extra base hits on top of all those walks.
Let’s see… we’re talking “clutchiness” here. So the all-time King of Klutch is… well, it’s Derek Jeter, right? That’s what I always read.
Jeter, Last 3 seasons, OPS with RISP: .901
Dunn: .924
Adam Dunn = Clutch
(Clutch = a total fallacy but I’m throwing it a bone here)
(I meant OBP with RISP to be -less- so, of course)
Where is the post game? Gez.