You are on base: i.e. you have the opportunity to score.
You did not make an out: i.e. you did not detract from your team’s opportunity to score.

1%-3% of the value of O.B.P. lies in the opportunity to steal a base.

In baseball, the turnaround from being on base to making an out is huge. There is no neutral. You either dramatically increase your chances of scoring by getting on base or dramatically decrease your chances by making an out. In that sense, every event is of double importance.

Batting average is a flawed stat because it does not address the issue. Average treats the base-on-balls as a neutral event when it is anything but. (It also treats a home run and a single as equivalent events. They are most emphatically not.)

This is not to say that the stat does not have its uses. It can indicate whether O.B.P. is hit-loaded or walk-loaded. And sometimes the HR and the base-hit are near-equivalent events-like in the bottom of the ninth inning with a man on third and two outs in a tie game. This is why “clutch” players tend to corelate with high-average players. As the leverage of a batting situation increases, the homer and the single converge in value. Dereck Jeter, for instance, gets praised endlessly for his “clutch” ability. In reality, he is a high-average hit-loaded hitter who delivers “clutch” hits at the same high rate that he delivers his regular not-so-clutch hits.

But that’s a double edged sword. Hits are more valuable than walks; they are also more erratic. Average fluctuates drastically throughout a career or even a season. IsoD does not–and generally improves throughout a career. Jeter, for instance, is a .280 hitter this year. Since he is also a singles hitter, and only an average base-on-balls guy, this drops his value tremendously. A .280 year from Jeter is a sub-league-average year (.280/.345/.400-for which he happens to get paid $21M). A .280 year from Carlos Beltran, on the other hand, leaves you with his 2006 MVP caliber campaign of .275/.388/.594 and great defense. (Jeter-not so much.)

So yeah, Dunn’s .235 BA is not meaningless, but it’s much more meaningless than Cerrone thinks it is. And let’s remember that Cerrone 2 years ago was talking about how great Zito would look in a Met uniform, and this past offseason was clamoring for LoDuca (2008:.233/.301/.286-astonishingly dismal) If Cerrone wants something, it’s a good bet that the proper course of action is the opposite. Similar to Dusty Baker.

How about OPS with RISP? Now we’re weighting extra base hits on top of all those walks.

Let’s see… we’re talking “clutchiness” here. So the all-time King of Klutch is… well, it’s Derek Jeter, right? That’s what I always read.

Jeter, Last 3 seasons, OPS with RISP: .901

Dunn: .924

Adam Dunn = Clutch

(Clutch = a total fallacy but I’m throwing it a bone here)

Man on first — BB — 1st and 2nd; 1B — 1st & 2nd or 3rd.

Man on second — BB — 1st and 2nd. 1B — 1st and RBI or 1st & 3rd.

Men on 1st & 2nd — BB — bases loaded. 1B — bases loaded or 1st & 2nd or 3rd w/ RBI

You get the idea, I’m sure.