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Earlier today, MetsBlog detailed that Johan Santana’s win total is not a reflection of how he has pitched this season.
So, who’s to blame for the lack of Santana wins? Let’s find out as we play, The Santana Blame Game! Let’s meet our contestants:
Contestant #1:
Residing beyond the right field fence, where the tomato vines once grew, is the underachieving, Hello Kitty backpack wearing cast of characters know as the Mets bullpen!
They have a combined 4-4 record with a 4.41 ERA in Santana’s starts this season. They have also blown leads in six, including four of the last five, of Santana’s 24 starts this season, which is one more than the Twins bullpen accumulated in his last 100 starts with them.
Contestant #2:
A 54-year old American gangsta, born in Hahira, Georgia, who currently resides in the underground, bulletproof manager’s office of Shea Stadium. Say hello to Mets manager Jerry Manuel!
After inexplicably removing Santana after throwing 105 pitches through eight innings in a July 22 loss to the Phillies, you would have thought Manuel would have been less conservative in Santana’s future starts, but that has not been the case. Since that start the Manuel allowed Santana to complete a 118-pitch effort in a 9 to 1 blow out versus the Cardinals, but removed him after 103 and 104 pitches, respectively, in his last two starts, each resulting in a blown save.
Contestant #3:
He is a native of Venezuela and two-time Cy Young Award winner, who is doing his job and has the best goatee in the tri-state area, give a warm welcome to Johan Santana!
In Santana’s start on July 22 versus the Phillies, Jerry Manuel removed Santana after eight innings while throwing only 105 pitches. Later, in an interview, Manuel has said if Santana had come to him and was adamant about going out to start the ninth he would have left Santana in the game. Shouldn’t the Mets expect their $137 million pitcher to to want the ball in those spots? Perhaps, but since he became a full time starter in 2004, Santana has only pitched seven complete games, while average 6.2 innings per start.
Contestant #4:
This inconsistent group of 14, who is currently one of the worst in the National League at driving runners in from scoring position with two outs, forgets how to score after the seventh inning and carries three catchers. Give it up for the Mets Offense!
The Mets offense provided 5.14 runs of support during Santana’s starts this season, but has scored less than three runs or less in 33% of his starts this season. In his four consecutive starts from June 17 to July 4, the Mets offense scored a total of eight runs, with three of the four resulting in Santana losses.
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Combo of all four. Santana has too push his manager, the bullpen has to not suck as often, the offense should be more relaxed when he pitches not tight and the manager has to stop being such a book worm.
Down with the Pitch Count!! Dan Patrick had Nolan Ryan on his Radio Show earlier this week… Nolan’s highest pitch count in a game? 234 pitches… Are you friggon kidding me!!!! I find it hard to believe that Santana can’t go 125-140 with his pitch counts
Like Patrick said above, Santana could push Manuel to leave him in the game, but hasnt… Regardless of the teams efforts, that’s several wins Santana could have locked up. With those wins we’d be defending first place this weekend, instead of chasing it..
In the end that could be the difference between Jerry Manuel remaining as the teams Manager in the off-season, at some point he’s got to take a chance with the teams ace and get those wins…
Maybe we should have traded for Minn’s bullpen!
In order of most responsible to least responsible:
1, 4, 2, 3.
Also interesting to see that the Mets have had the most ABs with bases loaded in the entire MLB, but are only 21st in runs scored with bases loaded.
They are batting only .195 in that spot (29th out of 30 MLB teams). I knew it was bad…but not that bad.
combination of contestants 1 and 4
Bingo.
Honestly, WGAS about Johan Santana’s win total. What’s the Mets’ record in games he’s started? That’s all I care about.
Exactly. Wins are the stupidest stat ever invented. You’d think the bullpen ran over his dog or something. If sportswriters weren’t so ignorant and anachronistic it wouldn’t matter at all, and he’d still be a cy-contender.
I wouldn’t go as far as to say that it is the stupidest stat ever invented. That goes to “the quality start” which is completely ridiculous. I still think it matters. Obviously the team winning is most important, but baseball is a game of stats more than any other sports. Like it or not, these guys care and they should. When I was playing team sports, I cared about my personal performance and stats. I cared about my teamates stats too. I wanted them to succeed individually but obviously the team winning is most important.
Anyway, Santana has no blame in this. Stop trying to nitpick because he doesn’t throw 9 innings. The guy pitches into the 7th inning every time out and gives up less than 2 runs. He should be 16 -6 right now in a perfect world so he is far from the problem. The bullpen and offense are to blame.
That’s not true. Quality starts at least tell you something — how consistent a pitcher is — even if there are better ways to go about it.
But a pitcher’s win-loss record is so dependent upon other factors that it tells you nothing about the pitcher himself. It’s completely useless.
And yet everyone gets worked up about it. Like the original commenter here said, all that matters is how many the Mets won or lost.
sure absolutely, but in three critical instances he pitched very solid games in which the Mets tossed.
7 innings against Arizona, no runs 10 ks left with a 4-0 lead. Mets lost.
8 innings in philly, no walks 6 ks allowed 2 runs, lost.
8 innings at shea vs philly, no walks 2 runs, left with a 5-2 lead, Mets lost.
“sure absolutely, but in three critical instances he pitched very solid games in which the Mets lossed.”
I agree – that’s the point – THE METS lost those games. That’s what I care about. Trust me, I’m not defending the horrific bullpen one iota. My point is I could care less about his win/loss record.
LOL, I was trying to correct your typo of “tossed” and I turned it into “lossed” instead of “lost.” Maybe I shoulda just left it alone.
That’s not the point. The point is the Mets are squandering chances. When you go into the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning with a lead, you should win a substantial amount of those games. Even if they give up the lead and eventually win anyway, it’s still a problem. They won’t always be able to come back, (see SEP, 2007) and keeping leads, which is what the lack of wins for Santana represents, is _very_ important.
All are to blame. You win and lose as a team.
But seriously, who cares? I don’t care how many games HE wins – I care about how many games the METS win when he pitches.
we heard the same crap when pedro 1st got here and when glavine was tryin to get to 300. enough with the blame games. the posters have that part covered every night with their 20/20 hindsight. no need to have an entire post of the same dribble.
Come on … clearly he posted this to make people laugh. Where is your sense of humor?
What does the “winning contestant” get then?
A stadium full of boos…
Big Bucks. Big Bucks. No Whammies. STOP!!!
1
Aaaand STOP on a Whammy, oh no…
“HEE HEE HEE HEE!!! I’M GOING TO STEAL YOUR WIN, JOHAN!!”
My favorite is “Super Whammy”, who thinks he is a real super hero and he tries to fly. Only to find out that he isn’t a real super hero and he crashes and burns – much like the hopes and dreams of the contestant who had visions of Press Your Luck GOLD!
1…2…4…3
It will all even out.
Perez got great run support in May & June
4-3 with era of 5.43
but they abandoned him in July — 1.38 era 1 win in 5 starts.
What, no poll? Easy, the bullpen. Count it!
You can put it on the boooooooaaaaard…YEEEEEEESSSS!!!!
For the life of me, I do not understand people who think Santana should be pushing to throw more pitches, or that the Mets should push him to do so. Santana is a guy who throughout his career has been a 7-inning pitcher. He is not Roy Halladay or CC Sabathia. That may have to do with his smaller frame, or something else about his build that I don’t know about, or because managers have been handling him conservatively. But in any case, that’s who he is, and it would be incredibly dumb to try to “stretch him” further, on a consistent basis, at this point in his career. I’m not saying he can’t be stretched in particular games, but to do so in general would be asking for disaster.
Will Carroll has coined the maxim, (I may not have it exactly) “pitching doesn’t cause injuries — pitching while tired causes injuries.” Regardless of whether or not Johan’s body can handle it, at this point in his career he’s accustomed to being a 7 inning pitcher. Regularly stretching him beyond that would be foolish.
The clear parties to blame here are the offense (predominantly) and the bullpen. Manuel may have a bit of a quick hook, but he’s only handling Santana the way he’s been handled throughout his career. If the Mets want to win for him, they should score more runs and stop blowing leads.
The blame has to be on the the bullpen first and on the offense second. They never hold any lead and the offense doesn’t do them any favors by not tacking on runs. You can’t blame Manuel or Santana. Santana is pitching very well and he isn’t throwing a CG every time out. You can’t blame Manuel because he is protecting our big investment. There is no point in leaving Santana on the mound to die in August of year one of a long contract.
“inexplicably removing Santana after throwing 105 pitches”
i love that the huge amount of research put into protecting a pitcher’s arm by limiting pitch count is ‘inexplicable’. pitchers’ arms get tired, fatigue leads to injuries. by all accounts, one hundred pitches seems to be the reasonable cutoff point. if you want to get your money’s worth out of santana, it’s not necessarily 8-9 innings and 110+ pitches every start, it’s seven full years of a very good HEALTHY pitcher.
and what is this blame over? santana has been awesome. are we seriously having this conversation because of his lack of personal wins? here’s the trick: realize that wins for a pitcher is an incredibly stupid and pointless metric. ignore it completely and it will become clear that santana has been as good as we can ask and the bullpen has been bad. it is that simple. the problem is the METS are losing.
think about it- if we had the ‘06 bullpen, would anybody ever complain about santana coming out at 100+ pitches or after 7 innings? just because the bullpen stinks this year doesn’t mean you should put your best player at a greater injury risk.
It’s not pointless, in fact, it highlights an important flaw in the Mets team. Their inability to hold leads late in games. It’s not like Santana isn’t able to pitch better than his opponents, because he leaves most of these games on the winning side.
Pitcher’s are not robots, I’m not advocating that Santana or anyone should go back to throwing every other day 150+ pitches, but as Leo Mazzone would say, you should pitch until you’re tired because your arm feels tired, not because you think your arms tired because you’re at 100 pittches. All you’re doing is talking the pitcher into being tired. Maybe some pitchers (Pedro) need to be pulled by that point, but maybe others are fine, can pitch 120 most outings, and be fine for the long haul. Everyone’s different, and (my only real gripe with Peterson) they don’t all fit into some profile and algorithm or pattern.
Lets detail Johan’s ND’s for the sake of more info.
1) 4/29 vs. Pirates: Santana throws 114 pitches in 5 2/3, 2 runs allowed. Wagner blows save, Mets win in 11.
2) 5/4 at Arizona: 116 pitches in 6 IP, 1 run. Joe Smith blows game in 7th.
3) 6/12 Arizona: 116 pitches in 7 IP, 0 runs. Smith & Wagner blow 4 run lead, Mets lose in 10.
4) 7/4 at Philly: 95 pitches in 8 IP, 2 runs. Leaves in a tie.
5) 7/17 at Cincinnati: 5 ER in 4 IP. Bad start by Johan.
6) 7/22 Philly: 105 pitches in 8 IP, 2 runs. Pen implodes, loses 5-1 lead.
7) 8/2 at Houston: 103 pitches in 6 1/3 IP, 1 run. Show, Wagner blow 4-1 lead.
8) 8/7 San Diego: 104 pitches in 7 IP, 2 runs. Show blows save.
1 & 2 Santana did not last long enough to have a right to have issue.
4, 7, 8 Santana did not stay in long enough with relatively managable pitch counts.
4, 7 the pen also has much fault.
3, 6 completely the bullpens fault.
5 Mets save Santana from a loss.
So by my count the pen cost Johan two games all by themselves while also getting a win when he made a terrible start. 1-2 is all that bad.
It is really Johan not being able to pitch effeciently or staying out there to ensure his win. If you are going to be the Ace then you have to ensure your own win. especially with this pen!
One other thing… If he isnt going to throw 120 pitches in 9 IP then why are they letting him throw 115 pitches in 6 IP? This makes no sense…
this is the funniest article yet. lmao
all 4 contestants all responsible for the 9-7 record of Johan.
shut the fludge up and just pitch. Johan has no control over the way game plays out. If he pitches with a lead and turns it over to the bullpen, he does not have control if the bullpen blows the lead. you cant expect Johan to pitch a CG every start (thats damn near impossible, even Halladay wont do that).
lately Johan has been pitching much more effeciently with his pitch counts which is allowing him to go 7 and 8 innings on a regular basis without throwing 115 pitches to do it.
So he does have some control over how it plays out. Asking the pen to get 3-5 outs is managable, asking the pen to get 6-9 outs is just asking for a blown game.
exactly my point. there is a limit to how he can control the game. baseball is a funny sport. Santana can pitch 9 innings in a 1-1 tie and have already throw 120 pitches. you would let him pitch in the 10th? i think not.
but asking the pen to get 6 outs is NOTHING if the Mets had a decent bullpen. so like I said, Johan cant control the bullpen’s meltdown. Johan is not a Roy Halladay in terms of pitching CG’s.
on slow news day on Metsblog they still have to keep the sponsors happy.
I hope we dont see this kind of fluff on a regular basis.
The Marlins signed veteran catcher Paul Lo Duca to a Minor League contract on Friday.
is this a serious post
he’s had 6 blown saves. That mean its the bullpens fault. you can say all you want about jerry and all that. the bulpens job is to get outs. they dont do it when he is on the mound: hence the 6 blown saves. There is your problem folks.
How in the world can anyone blame Santana himself for this???
I posted this in another thread, here is a copy and paste:
“There seems to be a double standard regarding Santana’s pitch count amongst us.
People complain that his velocity on his fastball has dropped this year. Then people complain that he doesn’t go out and throw 120 pitches every start.
Do people realize that super high pitchcounts and decreasing velocity go hand-in-hand?
He’s going to be here for seven years, and will be paid quite handsomely to do so. I’d much rather see him get 12 wins with a 2.85 ERA this year and stay in top form throughout the contract, than see him win 18 games in his first three years and burn out in year four, leaving us with a very expensive White Elephant for the last years of the deal.”
attempt at logical analysis = FAIL
Johan’s averaged 102 pitches per start in his career.
And 103 pitches this year.
Johan’s fastball averaged 92.1 mph for his career.
And 91.2 this year.
Those fluxuations are entirely insignificant. Less than 1% different in both cases. There is no trend.
Oops, I meant to reply to the guy who said his velocity has been down. You’re saying it would go down, if he threw more pitches. I don’t know if I necessarily agree with that either, but that’s a different argument altogether. I think he can handle 115 from time to time. He his 97 mph late in the game yesterday, and clearly did not want to come out.
1, 2, 4.
No Santana. He shouldn’t have to push to stay in the game.
The all talking and supposed savior of the Mets Jerry Manuel should know better. When he got the job he said he wanted his pitchers to go 120 pitches into a game.
Bull-cr*P.
Jerry is just a talking meathead.
The bullpen is at fault. Fire them, when Jerry is fired.
Offense needs to hit better. I have no idea who the opposing pitchers have been when Santana pitches, but usually when an ace pitches the other teams 1 or 2 pitcher should be pitching. Maybe the offense just sucks against decent pitchers. Or maybe the offense just sucks.
it’s time people start realising that manuel is basically willie randolph who smiles and says “no question” to begin every response with ed coleman on the fan pregame.
Pressing offense + volatile bullpen = close games and blown leads.
And oh yeah, Santana himself has had a chronicled tendency to blow the slim leads the offense gives him.
Forget pitch counts for a moment. Number of batters faced is a better measurement, as it represents individual battles with hitters. Look at the number of batters faced in each start. Out of the 116 games started so far, there have been nine where the starter has faced 30 or more batters. Santana has pitched seven of those nine games. (Perez and Maine had the other two.) Not counting his 5 inning rain-shortened appearance (in which he was pitching a shutout), Santana has averaged 28 batters faced per game, far more than anyone else on the staff. Santana has been a rock, and anybody who thinks differently is just foolish.
Dude, the Hello Kitty pack has been gone for weeks– It’s a Disney Princess backpack now. That might be it– Bring back Hello Kitty!
Some of the people that post here were raised during a time when the mark of an ace was completing your own game. If you look at the top starting pitchers of the 1970’s you will see pitchers such as Steve Carleton that started 41 games in 1972 and completed 30 of them winning 27 games for a team that won 59 games total. Carleton threw 343.3 innings that year. BTW Carleton pitched in the majors for over 20 years. In 1969 Tom Seaver started 35 games and completed 18 of them pitching 273.3 innings. They are using that as their criteria in today’s environment and that is dead wrong. They have to view Santana using today’s standards. Pitchers are limited in the amount of pitches and innings they throw. And among today’s pitchers Santana is one of the best and performing exactly as he had done with the Twins.
The bullpen has been an absolute disgrace in Santana starts, especially Wagner. There is no excuse for it.
And there is no way they should push Santana and risk his arm and gazillions of dollars just to compensate for such a poor pen. If they can’t get just 3 or 6 outs to preserve a Santana win, then the chances of the Mets ever getting to the WS are very slim. So save Santana’s arm for a year in which the bullpen isn’t such a disgrace.