This morning I wrote to MetsBlog.com:
The Mets have 20 blown saves this season, which is fourth-worst in the National League.
…do you realize if the bullpen had blown just half of that
number, the Mets would be in first place by eight games, and have the best record in the league…
However, Micah G sent in the following e-mail, which is important to note:
“While you are correct that the Mets’ pen has blown 20 saves, but, by my count, only 13 of those games resulted in losses, while seven became wins.”
Micah is correct, by the way.
That said, even if the Mets had been able to salvage just half of the games they did go on to lose, they’d be in first place by a three or four games.
Nevertheless, thank you, Micah, for the e-mail.
{ 29 comments }
the good news is that manuel is aware that something must be done. the bad news? what the **** are we gonna do?
Nobody, myself included was calling for it at the time, and the price may have been to steep, so I can’t blame Omar for this, but boy oh boy, how great would John Rauch look in our bullpen right now?
He’s a talking meathead. . .I’ll believe changes when I see ‘em.
The good news is Cerrone admits when he’s wrong. If only the Filip Bondys or Wallace Matthewses of the world took note.
Those guys may write plenty of garbage, but I’ve never seen such a ridiculous mistake like that ever in a newspaper. How could you possibly think that all 20 blown saves resulted in losses…i mean that’s just absurd for someone who has made his job writing about baseball. i mean he even wrote it twice! how do you not catch that….
And he said it in his Metsblog minute, too.
Definitely time for bullpen overhaul. I’m glad Manual seems ready to throw in the towel on a few of these guys. We can’t go on this way anymore.
But there’s a hidden cost to all those blown saves. Every time a save is blown, it usually causes the manager to waste more bullpen arms either pitching into extra inning games or by simply having to bring in another reliever to mop up the mess. And the result is the bullpen is more tired and worn so that if they come into a close or tied game the next day, they are less effective. They may let a game get out of reach that is winnable, even if they didn’t come in to protect a lead.
I bet this hidden cost is an extra 3-4 games lost. There is no way to prove it, but I don’t know how all the blown saves don’t weaken the bullpen for subsequent games.
That’s the little things of baseball that people that go by the numbers and stats all the time that don’t tell you. That blown saves, whether the Mets come back to win them or they lose that current game, going into say the 12th or 13th innings using extra arms.
Try doing that over and over again in about a months time and even the best bullpens will falter after awhile. Now, the everyday players that are in the starting lineup see this happening everyday and they feel they need to put a run on the board every single inning and that’s what will put pressure on them.
Johan Santana pitches today so I’m thinking 6 – 7 innings of 1 or 2 run ball and then you start going with a guy like Stokes and then hopefully by the 9th, they can give the ball to Kunz to see what he can do.
I don’t think we’re going to see Santana go any less than 7 innings if he’s given up 2 runs or less the rest of the way. As long as his pitch count is below around 110 at the begining of an inning, I say let him start the inning. Johan on his 120th pitch is much more effective than any of our releivers on their first pitch.
I’m against pushing Santana to his limits. If the pen is so bad they can’t get 3-6 outs, then they aren’t going to make the postseason anyway. So why risk Santana’s arm in a year in which their chances are slim?
Santana has typically been about a 100-115 pitch starter. Why risk his arm and that humongous contract because the bullpen is so weak?
Dude, you got burrrned. Nah, just playin’. Either way, important point. Overhaul the bullpen now!
Also, the 20 blown saves doesn’t include all the times the bullpen has let a tied game get away or a deficit of 1-2 runs grow to 4-5 or more.
Bottom line is that the Mets bullpen has probably been the worst (or close to it) in the NL since the all-star break and if they don’t do anything about it, they don’t deserve to make the playoffs.
Is it just me, or does anyone else find the possibility of a relief pitcher earning a blown save AND a win the single most asinine of baseball statistic oddities?
Imagine:
Top 9. Mets up 5-2. Enter Aaron Heilman. Mets down 7-5. AH: Blown save.
Bottom 9. Mets walkoff. Mets win 8-7. AH: Win.
Hey, at least the Mets win in that example.
instead of using blown saves, which is an awful indicator of how a bullpen is performing (just like saves are) why not just point out that the Mets are 14th out of 16 teams in the NL in reliever ERA and 26th in all of baseball.
To me, that’s the most astonishing stat with this pen
so, who is the closer now? cuz manuel said heilman is not closing anymore. sanchez? kunz?. also does kunz have a second pitch?, cuz I have only seen his sinking fastball.
Manuel said Kunz will be closing and he will have to see what his other options are. I think everyone is anxious/nervous to see what Jerry Manuel is going to do.
So if the Mets did better, they’d win more games? Shocker
Over at ESPN . com on th epage 2 page, Jim Caple has a real good article about closers and saves. Basically debunks the myth of the, and shows how the closer mentality causes managers to misuse their BPs.
It does make sense that if your best reliever is your closer, they should pitch in the biggest spot. So tied game bases loaded in the 8th is a bigger spot than up by 3 to start the 9th.
Sadly, he even used the example of Heilman and Wagner in this case.
he also makes a point that I always believed, that the way they are used now, alomst any decent pitcher with at least 1 “out” pitch can be the closer and get plenty of saves.
I hope Caples credited Bill James because that’s essentially a Bill James theory.
However, I think it’s one of his worst theories. You don’t know whether or not a situation in the 7th or 8th inning is going to be the toughest in the game. Also, I really believe that the later in games a reliever comes in, the more pressure there is. And some are better equipped to deal with that pressure than others. For example, Heilman can’t handle the late inning pressures very well whereas someone like Papelbon is ideal for it.
Maybe the problems the bullpen is having is because of the lousy job Wagner has been doing all year. His failures have trickled down to the rest of the bullpen because more has been asked of them and added pressure put on them. Think of it. The Mets have had a decent closer since the days of Franco/Benitez. Neither of them or Looper were ever as bad as Wagner is this year. The lack of a reliable closer has impacted the entire bullpen negatively.
Perhaps if they can just fix the closer spot, everything else will fall into place more easily. It won’t solve everything, but it might solve most of the issues.
I told everyone that we should trade Slappy and get a reliever in here. The bullpen is shot. They are tired and they just plain stink. Scoenweiss should go back on HGH-that’s the o nly time he was 1/2 decent. Heilman throws hard, but needs a 3rd pitch. ANd he wants to be a starter? Ha! He can’t even go through a line-up once and he thinks he can do so 3-4 times???!!! Sanchez doesn’t have it anymore since his injury-that’s a shame. Smith is below average. Feliciano is either hot or cold. Muniz is just awful. Stokes throws hard, but he reminds me of Billy Koch. Hard & straight=sucks. Kunz isn’t ready. This is BRUTAL!!!!!!
isn’t there anyone in AAA that can help us?
or trade for David Weathers? Eddie Guardado? Cory Lidle?
someone! anyone!
If you suggested trading Castillo for any ML quality reliever in July I think any GM in baseball would have laughed in your face.
Why not trade Castillo to the D-Backs for Dunn. It took little to get him and at least they would be getting back a replacement for Hudson, who’s out for the rest of the season (most likely). The Mets could pay part of Castillo’s salary and we never have to see him again. Thats a win, win in my book.
PS Big Props to this Micah person for putting some manners on Matty-boy. Better keep those statistics checked Matt or you or going to get called out for it on your own blog. At least you had the testicular fortitude to admit your error.
The D-backs would lol @ us. How is Castillo that big of an upgrade over the back-up 2b they have, I just forgot his name. And why would they even consider trading a .900+ OPS homerun/walk machine that may net them 2 draft picks at the end of the year, for Luis Castillo.
Augie Ojeda, he’s the D-backs version of Jody Gerut or Kelly Johnson or Pedro Feliz or Cody Ross or any other marginal talent player that kills us with backbreaking hits and HR’s, especially off our relievers.
According to Jon Heyman, Mets just picked up Armando Benitez off waivers.
Now we get the bullpen help we need.
NO!!!!
All those beat writers that were kidding about fans harkening back to the days of Blownitez were only kidding.
Wasn’t he pretty good in non big spot situations? Just don’t let him pitch in the big spot!
Is this true? Please tell me it isn’t. You ask can it get any worse. Well, it this is true, it just did!!!
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