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Adam Rubin of the Daily News examines the Mets remaining scheduled and determines with their favorable matchups the Mets may be poised for a big September run.
For the record here is the Mets remaining opponents and their record against them:
- Marlins (6 games): 7-5
- Brewers (3 games): 1-2
- Phillies (3 games): 10-5
- Nationals: (6 games): 8-4
- Braves (6 games): 5-7
- Cubs (4 games): 0-2
To win the National League East, I think the Mets need to have at least 91 wins. Meaning, the Mets would need to go 17-11, a .607 winning percentage, over their final 28, which is very doable against their remaining opponents.
Although, if you remember, the Mets had a very similar schedule last September and we know how that turned out. However, I believe this is a different team and will not let that happen this season.
These last 28 games should be exciting and very intense. Enjoy the ride.
For more on the Mets and Phillies schedule, check out Josh Thomson’s recent post at his blog for the Journal News.
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But . . . but . . but. . . . Jayson Stark says the Phillies will win! How can I support the Mets when JAYSON STARK HATH SPOKEN!?!!? Completely useless enterprise — “scouts” agree with him, he says. No way the Mets can win without Maine, he says. It’s over. Anyone for golf?
Oh, and Jayson . . . .
What to do about that horrible Phillies’ bullpen, huh?
Jayson is from Philly, so he’s not even relevant. I don’t think we as fans need to get caught up in what these analysts say. We all have good memories: just hold on and hope for the best!
The Phillies just have too much heart and grit.
**sigh**
Yes, agreed, Jayson Stark is just one person who has watched a lot of baseball and has a job writing about it with an opinion. His insights about the game ad the current tempertaure of the teams and players is great — he has access we don’t. However, I wish these experts would stop thinking their access and insights lead to any advanced ability to predict the unknown — none of them are any wiser about prognasticating than the 54 year old secretary that wins the office football pools every year.
Well said.
Well, there were plenty of people who picked the Mets to cruise to the division title when they got Johan Santana.
Or people who declared the 2007 race over in August.
As Yogi or Andujar or someone said, baseball can be summed up in one word: You Never Know.
I believe that was The Jerky Boys.
One thing that is way different from last year is the Mets. This is NOT the same team.
2007 motto: Hey, we’re in first place. Everything is fine.
2008 motto: Resiliency after tough losses and do NOT forget what happened in 2007.
Change 2007 to Willie and 2008 to Manuel because the first 60 games or so they had the first motto attitude and no resiliency after tough losses.
The loss of John Maine will not hurt us as much as our bullpen will…thats just the truth.
First of all, we still have a solid “3″ in our rotation, with an iffy Pedro Martinez who, suprisingly, has been able to hold his own (minus the 5 runs have allowed to the Phillies, but in that ballpark anything is possible). Santana, Perez, and Pelfrey are more than capable of helping us win the division, and I am 100% confident that Jon Niese can’t do any worse than Maine has this year. Let’s face it, John Maine wasn’t on this year. Besides, it would only be a couple of starts. Now, if (and I do mean if) we make it to the post season, you only need 3 starters. Move guys like Pedro and Maine (if healthy) to the pen, call up Niese, Parnell, and maybe 1 or 2 more solid arms who can spell some relief for us (because our bullpen is over-worked), and keep riding this phenomenal second half by Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes and we will be right were we wanna be come October. Let’s Go Mets!
but the phillies have heart, grit, guts, stick-to-it-tiveness, a never quit attitude…and they don’t dance!!!!!
They also have a heck of an eighth inning ERA of late. Live hearts, dead arms.
Say, can anyone remember another team whose bullpen burned out at the end of the year? Hmmmmm.
Folks, we are not alone.
it’s funny how nobody mentions that part…i’ve been pretty obsessed with sports talk these past few weeks and something that i have noticed is that the mets problems are constantly highlighted. even with the resurgance of pelf and delgado, the great season from santana, reyes, wright et al…the biggest topic is the bullpen and the collapse. meanwhile the phillies vaunted offense takes 2 months off, the bullpen is killing itself right now and their manager might be worse than dusty baker, but that is never talked about. all you hear about is the comeback win, every asnine thing jimmy rollins says, and the intestinal fortitude of that team. i guess i’m just a woe is me mets fan right now, but it seems like the media (being espn) is this close (imagine fingers 1 inch apart) from openly rooting for the phitins. anywayz go mets and i hope jimmy rollins gets a golden sombrero tonight.
agree with everything you said…
Well, Phillie fans are bashing the bullpen. . . as a subset of what they usually bash, which is everything. Some guy on Beerleaguer during the last Mets WIN blurted out (to the extent you can “blurt” in a Comments section) something about releasing Victorino outright. Are you kidding me? Do these people even watch games?
Don’t answer that.
on this trip I’d say hope for 4-2, expect 3-3
I don’t think it matters what we do since the Phillies have obviously had their confidence shattered after two difficult 8th inning meltdowns on back to back nights.
Wait, those articles haven’t been written by the media? Oh, I see – only the Mets’ late game losses mean inevitable doom, I get it now.
Lets see the Phillies really scuffle before getting high and mighty the articles are being written because until proven differently they are correct.
The Mets are the team that collapsed last year and until they come out on top this September that will be the story line.
If they fail many will say that was in their heads. If they succeed a lot of new age love stories about resilience and such will be penned.
I’m not being high and mighty, but fairness would be nice. After every crushing loss this year, we’ve had to read how the Mets were going to collapse and that the season was teetering on the edge. Yet, basically every time they have responded with a big win or a winning streak.
I’d like to see the same thing being written about the Phillies if it’s going to be written about the Mets, simple as that.
FYI
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Phillies acquired outfielder/first baseman Matt Stairs from the Blue Jays.
I guess its better that we are now favored to miss the playoffs instead of winning it. Hopefully will provide a little chip on our shoulders.
That’s a good point, Patrick. The Mets are in perfect position for a fairytale storyline that the writers wouldn’t be able to resist. It would be one for the ages. ;)
We’re missing CC, sweet.
That said, I think we need to put the kibbosh on any “we need to go xx-yy…very doable…”
Bad, bad memories. Very bad.
I’d actually like to play against CC just to prove that he’s not even close to the invincible powerhouse everyone is being fooled into thinking he is.
I’d prefer to face Dave Bush.
The beans guy?
Rollll that beautiful bean footage.
Ha. No, that would be Jay Bush. But I like the idea already. Can we get Jay Bush as our closer? And his dog Duke can sell our signals to the other teams
Dude, Jay Bush throws serious gas….
He is a powerhouse…during the regular season. He was not good at all last year in the playoffs. That said, considering we may need to face him, hopefully, in the playoffs it may not have hurt to get some exposure to him now.
But, w/o facing him, it prolly gives us a better chance to win, and we need to wins to make it to the playoffs.
the way they are having him pile up innings, by the playoffs his arm may have fallen off. And I bet that negatively impacts his pitching!
I agree. Playoffs are looking like East is playing the Wild Card first round. Most likely we would be playing the Brewers. To be the best, we have to beat the best. I was hoping to see what he has against us and maybe get into his head a little bit. If nothing else, it would have been nice to face him once before postseason.
If we have to go 17 -11 to winn then the Phillies have to go 18 -10 to win. What does there schedule look like? Right now the Phillies are th eonly team that matters. On the other hand, lets not even worry about them, JUST WIN !!!!!
Well, all I can say is that Its Go Time
The critical thing is 16 home games 12 road games.
If they can and should take advantage of each of the Marlins beginning this weekend, Nationals and Braves those are three road series the Mets really need to win.
With 12 remaining road games the Mets really need to go 7-5 in that block, if they can manage a sweep of one of the teams it gives them a lot of wiggle room and the potential to really snag an extra 8th win there.
With 16 at home you simply have to slam down home field advantage. They need to win each of the series vs their NL east opponents and at least split vs. the Cubs.
very good point. We need to take care of business at home.
I think the only tough thing about this schedule is that they don’t have an off day after September 11. They play their final 17 games over 17 days, just like last year. Not only does this not give them an opportunity to take a day off, it means they are forced to go with a full five-man rotation down the stretch instead of being able to skip a fifth starter at least once.
But yeah, this is a good schedule – though it’s basically the same as the Phils’. It could also be a good thing that we play the Cubs in the final week because they probably will have clinched by then.
It’s Niese time!
Yeah, he will probably get called up and dominate MLB hitters right out of the gate…just like Pelfrey did. Seriously though…are you related to Niese or something?
I am not related to Jonathan Niese. He is starting on Tuesday. I did not make any mention of if it is for better or worse, you did. It is his time.
I know you are known on Metsblog for misreading posts and questioning details but I can’t for the life of me understand how you interpreted my post as anything overly positive about Niese. I hope he is good but one way or another, it’s his time.
Wow, man. What a horrible comparison. Pelfrey was called up after about a year in the minors, with most of his starts coming in St. Lucie. Niese has been in the system for almost three years now, and has been pretty impressive so far in AAA. Not to mention, they are two TOTALLY different pitchers, with Niese being a crafty lefty who relies on off-speed stuff, and Pelfrey being a big righty who just throws hard (at least thats all he did when he came up). Pelfrey had control issues , especially since he had only been pitching since college, while Niese doesn’t walk too many guys. I think alot of Pelfreys struggles can be attributed to his high number of walks, but if Niese comes up and throws strikes he could be somewhat successful until hitters figure him out.
Go Cubs Go, yo.
That is, this week only :)
Little Off Topic…
Beltran, Wright, Reyes are on top of the league in Win Share total… is this a good sign? OR do the mets rely too much on them
plus, i dont even understand this confusing stat
I would rather have it spread out among a few guys than 1 or 2.
They, along with Delgado, are our only everyday players. I think this alone points to our reliance on them. I’m shocked that Delgado isn’t up there also.
VORP and Win shares. Stats that some nerds came up with to make us average Joes look stupid.
yes, that’s exactly why they came up with them. to make you look stupid. and they have succeeded.
the mets are in first place…that’s the only sign that matters.
Oooh, we’re back to this again, are we? I think the fact that we’re in first having played three solid months of strong ball, rather than being in first having played three ho-hum months of tepid ball, is a meaningful sign.
the goal is to be in first place. then to win each playoff series. baseball is random. you can’t have a perfect season.
the mets obituary was written months ago by lots of mets fans. kind of like the steve jobs one released recently. i know last year ended in a terrible fashion, but that was an unlikely end to that season.
I think it’s nice that in four of the next six games, the Phillies will play hours before the Mets play. I think as long as they maintain a game lead over the next 6, they would only have to win one game of three vs Philly to stay in (tie for) first place. Winning two of three would obviously mean a two game lead, which is more what I would expect. Then those 12 games vs the Nats and Braves.
I guess my point is, realistically, I would just like to match the Phils the next six games and then take 2 of 3, opening a two game lead. I’m not asking for anything more than that.
If I’m Jerry, i’m in playoff mode. Every game matters.
We have enough off days to keep the reglaurs fresh without taking games off. We should have enough relievers to play match ups from every angle.
Bring up all of the peices you need on Monday. Screw the PCL playoffs. I’d rather have a GCL kid called up to N’Orleans than having Neise pitch game 1 for the Zephyrs.
For every Met fan in Florida… Get out there this weekend and cheer for our boys… There are plenty of good seats left (this is the Marlins we’re talking about). Lets bury the fish and hope the Cubbies sweep!
I hate playing there. We play so sloppy every time we are in that horrible excuse for a baseball stadium. Not to mention, with the Dolphins playing there now, the field is going to be in rough condition. All we can hope for is some high offensive numbers from our boys.
This what I was saying at the beginning of the week. Needed to at least split with Phillie, take the Florida series and go about 15-10 next month. The key will be the team (hopefully) beating up on Atlanta and Washington whom we get for 12 straight games mid September (something like 8-4 should be fine and realistic).
Magic Number: 27. Sweet
NEVER talk about Magic numbers again
EVER
ever ever
I choked and I died just now!
The worst aspect of a jinx is the belief in them.
It’s baseball. Part of the fun is the indulgence in superstition!
It’s actually 28. It’s not quite meaningful yet until it’s a couple of games _below_ the number of games left to play.
Like the Yankees Elimination # of 24 with 29 to play.
Magic number: Any number higher than the opposing teams score. That’s all that matters right now.
dam you all for mentioning m*g*c #
bad flashbacks, plse stop
If we can go:
Marlins 4-2
Brewers 2-1
Phils 2-1
Nationals 4-2
Braves 4-2
Cubs 2-2
That’s 18-10 to finish the year, that should be enough to get it done. Now Lets GET IT DONE!!!!
LETS GO METS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
STOP!!! This is just as bad as magic number. Don’t you remember “We only need to go 7-20 (or whatever) and there is a 99.9% chance that will happen.”
Have we learned nothing?!
He is a fan — if the players read this site it would worry me too but fans are supposed to do this type of analysis. Breaking down the games and the scenarios had nothing to do with last year’s collpase. Don’t believe in jinxes or a single person’s effect on the games (i.e. I am xx-xx when I go to games; I was not wearing my lucky hat, my fault; when I watch at my friends sofa with a lite beer the Mets never lose)… It has zero effect on the games played.
The good news for this weekend is that we miss Josh Johnson. The not so good news is that with Maine’s trip to the DL we were unable to skip Pelfrey against the Fish. Still, the Fish are reeling a little bit so we need to put the proverbial foot on their throats (gills?) and go at least 2 out of 3.
I doubt the Cubs will sweep the Phils, but considering last night was one of their more favorable matchups (Saturday has Lilly going against Myers), I think the Phils would settle for a split with the Cubs knowing that a 1-3 record might be the more likely result. Tonight’s game is a huge mismatch with Blanton going against Harden. If the Cubs can knock Blanton out early that will really put a strain on the suddenly vulnerable Phils bullpen and we know what an overtaxed bullpen can do to your September.
I’m not yet convinced that the Marlins are Pelf-proof.
I’d say eventually they will fall to him, to some extent I’d much rather have had Pelfrey not pitched well against them yet vs. due for a clunker against them.
Same with Pedro and Johan at Philly, I feel better about their odds next weekend at Shea now.
Let’s not get carried away with all this “soft opponents” talk.
The memories of getting punked by the Nationals last September both at Shea and RFK are still fresh in my mind.
TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED.
We need to play hard against all opponents the rest of the way.
All I can say is that this is likely going to come to the last weekend of the season, and the division will probably be won in the last game of the season.
I remember when the Santana sweepstakes were going on and we were all on the edges of our seats, hitting refresh every five seconds, someone said, “I can’t live like this.” And I cracked up.
But the fact is, this race will be exciting and at the same time we will all be ready for heart attacks. Some of us will be thinking “I can’t live like this” everyday.
But for die hard baseball fans, most of us wouldn’t have it any other way.
Get ready for a crazy, wild ride folks.
LETS GO METS!!!
We are probably going to need a little bit of a buffer going into the last 7 games. Philly has sets against Atlanta and Washington, while we host the Cubs and Marlins.
buffers or not with the final 7 at home the Mets are going to need to take 5 of those 7.
I just hope we aren’t all watching Ayala on the mound in the top of 9th on last day of the season with a 1-run lead…I want this wrapped up a few days early!
Well, that would be a step up from last year…
That would be kinda cool with me since I will be in town and at a few games that a week. All I really ask though is that they are still in contention or leading when I am in the city at the end of September.
Pitching Matchups for next weekend vs. Philly:
Big Pelf vs. Myers
Pedro vs. Moyer
Johan vs. Kendrick
First game of the series… first at bat… can Big Pelf just groove a 97 mph fastball right into Jimmy Rollin’s back? Please? I would absolutely love that.
Pelf can beam him right through the gap in his teeth.
Hamels can pitch on regular rest for the SUnday game…expect to see him this time, so i’d say the matchups are right except it will be Johan vs Hamels
They have not done that all year and won;t do it now. He will not face the Mets.
ummmmm
have you noticed WHY they haven’t done it earlier? Its because they COULDN’T without going on short rest, not because they are scared.
He WILL pitch against us..its a big game, no matter what happens this week….Johan vs Hamels happens
No, I think they would have had to skip the 5 starter. He would have been on normal rest, but they chose to give him an extra day instead.
he pitched Saturday..therefore, to have pitched wed, he’d be on 3 days rest..
why is it so hard to fathom them skipping a #5 starter to pitch against Santana this late in the season? They haven’t been just not pitching their ace against us just cause they are scared, look at every series thus far with them, they just MISS Hamels because he’d have to pitch on only 3 days rest…
research people come on
Why isn’t Perez pitching? He dominates the Phils.
We should Skip Pedro, move up Santana, and have Perez pitch the last gave even if it’s on shorter rest.
The winner of the NL east will have less than 91 wins. Where does Matt get his expertise? Why 91 wins? Why not 90?
well, you know, first off Mike Nichols said that (you can tell by the name at the top of the post) …
and he said “I think” …meaning its his OPINION
some here might say 88, some 89, pick a number, its an opinion…his happens to be 91 :)
I agree with Nichols somewhat though I believe the benchmark will be around 90 wins and we certainly don’t know if we need 91 wins.
As of today, BP’s PECOTA-adjusted odds report estimates that the Mets will win 90, which seems about right to me. The Phillies, 88.
91 wins means winning 17 of 28 (.607). If we play .500, we get 88 wins. Anything less than that would probably limit our chances greatly.
Because there are so few games left, every win going forward will significantly reduce the pressure to perform above .500. It would be really nice to win a few games right out of the gate. Let’s hope we can hit the Marlins hard!
If we go 28-0, we will wil the division!
OMG what are you thinking making that kind of a prediction? You are going to jinx it all!
Its not a prediction, its pure logic. And a bit of sarcasm as well.
17-11 doesn’t sound so hard when you say it, but you know,,,,
Let’s go Mets!!! Fighting all the way to the finish!!!
PS Matt, no magic number this year, please!
the magic number was a reality, all leading teams have them especially when your lead in several games, the Mets blew it last year is over, nothing can change that.
So let’s go on one of our patented 10 game winning streaks.
Re: the Florida series, is it possible to throw one behind an announcer’s back?
save the bullets for the phillies @ Mets on ESPN.
Ah, but practice makes perfect…
No, cuz in a football stadium the booth is on the 50 yard line- erm, I mean the 3rd base side. lol
The combined winning percentages of the remaining schedules as of today:
Mets .491
Phillies .490
Marlins .489
…basically the same. The difference, IMO, is the order of the games. The Mets finish the season in brutal fashion: 4 vs. Chicago, then 3 vs. Florida, who may be very much in the race at that time.
The Phillies finish with 3 vs. Atlanta and 3 vs. Washington.
If the Phillies stay close, they will have a huge advantage going into the final week.
The Cubs will have already clinched at that point, and may be resting marquee players and pitchers.
You’re talking about the Cubbies here. They’ll probably be in 2nd place by the time they play the Mets!
We need them to play the Patriots the last game of the season…
As long as its not in the SuperBowl…
Marlins: 3-3
Brewers: 1-2
Braves: 4-2
Nats: 5-1
Phillies: 2-1
Cubs: 2-2
17-11
definetly doable.
One game at a time. I think you have to take the Rockies approach and know that everygame you play is crucial.
How many fans will go back to Tuesday’s game as the one that got away if we do not pull this out?
I still have visions of a game in pittsburgh last year in July that seemed to be an omen.
They really need to put the nail in the coffin for the Marlins here and not let them get back into this.
Eh..no way the Phillies win 90 games.
But JRoll predicted that they would win 100. How can it not come true? :)
lol, the Cubs might not even get 100 wins. What the hell is JRoll thinking.
I’m biting my nails just reading these comments. Can’t wait to watch this race. Lets start tonight with a nice statement win. I’ll be listening to the cubs v phils game in a bit.
if only the mets fired willie 3 weeks earlier then we would be 5 gms up now
“I believe this is a different team and will not let that happen this season.”
You better tell the bullpen. They don’t look any different to me.