|
I wrote a column about this subject earlier today on SNY.tv, which goes into much greater detail on the subject, but reports of 
Reyes’ second-second straight September swoon might be exaggerated.
While it’s true that Reyes hasn’t had many hits so far on the month in an extremely small sample, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is only .136. The league average is usually around .300, and a below-average BABIP is generally considered a product of bad luck more than bad hitting.
Beyond that, Reyes is actually hitting line drives at a higher rate in September — 27.3% of his balls in play — than the already-impressive 23.7% rate he’s posted on the season.
In other words, Reyes is still hitting the ball hard, he’s just hitting them right at defenders.
That’s not to say he’ll start pouring on base hits starting tonight or that he won’t go into an actual September swoon. But if he keeps hitting the ball the way he has been this month, the numbers say he’ll be just fine.
For more on this, check out the column on SNY.tv.
 |
 |
 |
RSS 2.0 Both comments and pings are currently closed.
eh it’s not unlucky. it balances out. how many tim,es does he get infield hits on balls he didn’t hit the “right” way because he had speed.
Actually Reyes’ BABIP Is probably a touch lower than you would expect from someone with his speed.
BABIP factors in those little dribblers and infield hits, so it is kinda unlucky when it’s as low as .136
Alarmist.
Yay for logic and reason.
Nice breakdown.
great article Ted
All the NY media will let Reyes know his 2007 sept numbers all month long…
what a bunch of clowns
I wrote about this in another thread, but pinning the blame for the September collapse on Reyes is ludicrous, when it belongs on the entire 2007 pitching staff.
NO IT BELONGS ON THE ENTIRE TEAM!!!!! LAST I CHECKED THIS IS A TEAM SPORT…..
Stats can be, and often are, misleading. The better gauge of how Reyes is hitting the ball right now is to watch him play (and we all have). He’s gotten unlucky a few times, but it doesn’t seem to me that he’s really stinging the ball right now.
Either way, I’m not worried about it.
Yeah, I don’t think BABIP is particularly useful in this case. For a large sample size it’s a very useful stat, but for 25 at bats it can’t really tell you anything about Reyes’ performance. I can see from watching the games that Reyes has not had the best swings for the most part. He’s had some hard hit balls, but those ugly popups count towards his BABIP too.
Regardless, any worries about a bad September for Jose are extremely premature.
But Reyes’ BABIP for the year is lower than it should be. He’s actually hit into more than his fair share of hard outs, if you go all of his peripheral stats.
I’m not disagreeing with that at all. Like I said, I’m not at all concerned that Reyes will have any issues. Just pointing out that using these stats for a sample of less than 30 plate appearances is somewhat misleading. I like that numbers were crunched, I just don’t think these specific numbers are of any use. If the same sample were used to say that Jose’s about to nosedive, would you be worried?
Absolutely, fair point. I think Berg was actually pointing out why such a small sample size of ABs (25) is pretty useless to get worked up about, and the reason is because things like an unhealthy number of line drives finding gloves can swing the statistics so drastically.
that’s probably true, the only thing that led me to think otherwise was “In other words, Reyes is still hitting the ball hard, he’s just hitting them right at defenders.” Which was an absolute statement based on a not so absolute stat.
Also, being at work I didn’t even glance at the whole article on SNY before posting, which based om a quick once over seems to actually address what I’m saying. So I’ll just shut up now.
With all due respect, I think you have it completely backwards. Personal anecdotal evidence is the least reliable evidence of all. Most of us haven’t seen every one of Reyes’s at bats. Even if we have, we almost certainly don’t remember every single one.
By contrast, a statistic like BABIP is an objective number based on the recording of the result of every single one of Reyes’s at bats, and it’s well-established that BABIP can, at least to some degree, distinguish how lucky or unlucky a player is at a given time. Moreover, a player’s line drive percentage is based on the observations of statisticians who record whether every single one of a player’s balls in play is a line drive, pop up, fly ball, grounder, etc. It is an objective way of measuring how much a player like Reyes is, in fact, “stinging the ball,” rather than basing it on our own faulty, anecdote-based memories.
I’m not saying that stats can’t be misleading, but as a rule, they are far, far more reliable than anecdotal eyewitness evidence.
Absolutely. Typically, the people who say that you can’t rely on stats, and watching the games is much more useful, are those who do not understand the stats.
Now, the person who brought up “small sample size” as a reason for not putting too much emphasis on this stat…he/she is on to something.
That being said…thanks for posting this, Ted. Small sample size or not, it does make me feel somewhat better about Reyes’ lack of production lately.
Oh, and enjoyed seeing you selling peanuts on Mets Weekly. :)
while I tend to agree with you, I do know that last September, Reyes popped up a TON and I’ve been hearing complaints about that the past week (I haven’t been able to watch the last few games), and pop outs count against your BABIP. So, in theory, his BABIP could look unlucky, but actually be a result of him not getting good swings and popping up a lot of balls he normally hits line drives on. This would especially be true over such a small sample size.
only gary cohen is worried and ready to go after reyes
hahaha
This is so true. He still believes in David, though.
I haven’t seen any reports of a Reyes 2008 swoon. I think you made it up to justify the stat crunching you did last night.
berg, fix that unibrow bro
p 74 of the Post: Reyes Again Battlin’ Sept. Blues
Fascinating stuff…now we can all sleep easily tonight
Thank God someone is smart enough to talk about BABIP here. There are about 12335462 things about this team I’m more worried about than Reyes having an unlucky start to Sept.
He was pressing a bit in the Phillies series particularly Sunday, no big deal, it happens.
Everyone seems to forgive Wright a month of striking out with the bases loaded.
No. Nobody here has been forgiving Wright. Everyone’s been really harsh on Wright.
Actually, everyone’s been saying “I know nobody else every criticizes Wright, but…”
I want to make an announcement. We’re officially past the point where we need to say “nobody criticized Wright.” We’re all doing it.
He’s been bad lately, obviously. I’m not terribly worried.
I just wanted to point out that his performance has been recognized.
I was at both games of the DH on Sunday and believe me, Jose did not hit one ball hard. He better wake up, and the same goes for David Wright.
You must have missed the night game when he lined a ball to dobbs which would have easily been a double if he wasnt playing on the line…
Wright needs to wake the eff up, why cant all these guys get hot at once!
ummm…. because their not the 27 yanks…..
Pretty awesome to see someone on this site using any type of advanced statistical analysis. People that talk BABIP and LD% and the like are usually pegged as geeks or numbers guys; hopefully some more exposure to advanced yet simple measures such as BABIP can go some ways toward eliminating the stat stigma.
wishful thinking, my friend.
I read the same thing over at metstailgate.com last night. It was in the comments under “Jose Reyes – Week 1, Sept. 2008 – Stats Alert” entry.
Coincidence?
Ugh. How about an article on how David Wright strikes out 100+ times every year? Did you know Gary Sheffield has never struck out even 90 times in a year? Wright should be batting 8th as far as I’m concerned. Wade Boggs Murphy will be the #3 hitter for years to come.
I know you’re joking, but Murphy has 15 strikeouts in 83 at-bats. If he batted as often as Wright, he’d have over 100 strikeouts too.
This is a panic post…the subject shouldn’t even be brought up. He’s had a few bad games and it happens to be September. He’ll be fine…
Geek…