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Neither Jose Reyes, nor Ryan Church, who hit second, nor Carlos Beltran nor Carlos Delgado had a hit in last night’s loss to the Nationals.
In fact, Beltran and Delgado are a combined 0 for 15 during this current series with the Nationals.
David Wright is 1 for 8, with a single to center field.
Reyes is batting .204 in September. He has been on base four times in his last 13 plate appearances.
Jerry Manuel, speaking about the team’s offense, while talking to reporters following last night’s loss:
“We have to reassess where we are offensively. We’re a better-hitting club than we’ve shown here. We have to get back to the basics, because our bats are key for us.”
I’ve said it, and others continue say, ‘Manuel needs to hit and run more, he needs to have them bunt, play small ball,’ etc.
The thing is, Manuel did hit and run last night – with Robinson Cancel at the plate and Ramon Martinez pinch-running on first. Martinez ran, and Cancel hit a ground ball through the right side like he was supposed to do, but Martinez didn’t go to third as he should have. He may or may not have scored on Jose Reyes’s infield dribbler during the next at bat.
Point is, much like had often been the case under Willie Randolph, the manager can push the buttons, but, at the end of the day, it’s about the players being smart and getting the job done.
The Mets have ‘clutch players,’ at least when it comes to getting a hit in a turning-point at bat in a random game. They certainly have big-time, MVP-caliber players. However, I’m starting to wonder if they have players who are ‘September-clutch,’ i.e., guys who when the heat is on, when the pennant race kicks in to Red-Alert mode, like right now, guys who when the season is essentially on the line, in true Must-Win situations, will they step up to the challenge and get it done.
Yes, it’s important to be ‘clutch’ in June, but it’s also necessary to be ‘clutch’ in September.
I’m not saying the Mets do not have these players, but if they do, I can’t tell you who they are based on what I’ve seen.
Actually, when you think about it, they did not have to play a stressful game in September 2006, as they cruised to a division title. In the 2006 NLDS, they swept the Dodgers. In that year’s NLCS against the Cardinals, however, they let moment after moment slip away and eventually lost, which was followed by last September’s disaster.
So, the question is: Who on this team is going to step up, rise to the challenge and get the job done?
Hopefully we will find out sooner than later.
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You know what..id put my money on the kids muprhy/evans..this comes with no statistical evidance to prove my point but with tatis gone for the year this may be yet another blessing in disguise. The mets have not played chaser since 05 and they came pretty damn close at the end…I think we can all agree this years team is better than the 05 team. We have the talent and someone will step up as people have all year.
More revisionist Met history. The fact is, the Mets died in Sept 05 just like Sept 07 and Sept 08 and if the lead in 06 would have been less than insurmountable they would have choked in Sept 06 as well. This is the world’s greatest set of chokers.
“if the lead in 06 would have been less than insurmountable they would have choked in Sept 06 as well.”
-ok where is your facts to prove this one…….
And also sept 08 is not finshed yet…dont know if you are aware of this or not. Like i said the mets were chasers in 05 and while yes they didnt make it(as i said in my post) this team is a better team than the 05 squad. Perhaps it may lead to a different result..who knows.
They got swept in Pittsburgh while trying to clinch the division.
well considering their magic number was 1, with like 15 games to play, maybe they just wanted to clinch at home?
The Mets have choked once in their 45 year history. Once. Every other lead they ever had in September resulted in a playoff berth. Granted, it’s only been eight times, but they are historically the team that makes a run and often falls just short of a miracle like in 98, or pull it off like 69. But they are historically a team that does not choke. If they lose the 3.5 game lead they had last week, that would be two in a row.
They choked the WC lead away in the last week in 1998… They also choked it away in 1999, only to force a one game playoff in Cincinnati…
1985 is somewhat of an exception where they were a few games behind all season long, got hot to go up one game before the Cards pushed back and went back up 4 games. The Mets were the chaser in that case.
This year is similar, the Mets were 7.5 back and in 4th place a full two months into the season, fought their way back to tie late August, and then stretched the lead out to 3.5 when the Phils got cold. Now the Mets got cold and it’s pretty much a dead heat. I still feel like the Mets are the chasers of last year’s division winner. If last year didn’t happen, the media would not spin it as the Mets being the favorites all year long.
janss36 — they made the playoffs in 1999. In 1998 they were the chaser and a push got them close, but they fell flat in the end. They almost caught the Cubs with an amazing run that fell flat at the end, but they were the chaser all September.
They only made the playoffs in 1999 because they swept PIT the last 3 games of the regular season and the Brewers swept CIN…
We went into CIN and beat the Reds 4-0 behuind Leiter and played the DBakcs the nest night in the NLDS…
In 1998, they were 1 up in the loss column in the Cubs with 7 to play… They lost the last 5 games in 1998 to finish 1 behind the Cubs and Giants (who played in a WC playoff game).
Not a bad point…These kids weren’t up here last September so maybe they don’t feel the pressure and anxiety of a potential relapse. Murphy plays calm cool and collected (at least it seems that way) so hppefully he can continue to do so…easley plays similar as well.
David Murphy is the man and now all will see it with Tatis going down.
hey he very well could be. People have been stepping up all year in light of injuries. Why should this be any different
do you mean Daniel Murphy? David Murphy plays for Texas :)
holy old school are “smallball” and hitting and running not the answers!
I would like to purchase the following T-shirt if someone makes it:
“David Wright…making Luis Castillo look clutch since 2008″
I understand Dos Carlos is 0-fer this series but the 2 of them have carried the team the last 2 weeks prior, and Reyes carried the team in July/August…where is DWright? he carried them the first 2 weeks in April and has since disappeared, seemingly content with his inflated A-Rod stats getting HR’s in meaningless situations and getting a big hit once every 2 weeks while getting singles with 2 outs when the team is down 4 runs in the late innings
your just lost….maybe we should trade him!!!
because with 2 out and no one on, David can:
a. choose to hit a home run every time
b. elect to go for 2 to bring the deficit to one…
David was the single most important factor in the Mets sweeping the Brewers. Had the bullpen not blown it, he would have been the single most important factor in sweeping the Braves. He OPSed 2.001 in the first week of September.
I’m beginning to wonder if being off on Thursday and then being rained out on Friday might be a cause of the sudden offensive brownout. They really haven’t hit since Saturday. The offensive momentum they had last week is completely gone. I mean the two starting pitchers they faced the last two nights are the same two they ripped apart last week.
That and the DH has ripped the piching roation apart…
But still this team is not clutch when it really matters…
the offense was running on all cylinders just a week ago…so you may not be far off.
test
I think Murphy should start at 2nd until this team starts hitting.
I fully realize that right now he could be an extreme liability fielding the position, but Castillo at the plate is dead weight and this team NEEDS to put some offense together. I believe that having Evans and Murphy in the lineup together might provide the necessary spark.
Evans can’t hit RHs at this point. He can’t play everyday.
So you play Endy against Righties…you get much better defense and someone who can handle the bat if you want to bunt or hit and run more.
Murphy has 10 career games at second base. You really want to put him there in a pennant race?
It doesn’t matter how the defense plays if the team doesn’t score any runs.
lol say that when the opposing team scores on balls hit thru the right side of the IF. When we need to get out of an inning and we botch a routine dp. Our problem has not been defense…why make it another..
prismo..tatis is out for the year..guarentees muprh and evans will be in the lineup without compromising defense at 2b.
Fire Willie!
Seems like there is no one who can Matt… It does not seem there is anyone here who has the guts to not cave in and not give up like seemingly every player on the Phillies has… It’s incredible…
This team gives away at bats and looks small when they need to have someone come through…
It’s why they will be once again looking in from tghe outside in October. It’s also why this core group should be broken up…
Yeah that is what is amazing. It is so noticeable how Philly excels in this area and the Mets get scared.
How many balls did they swing at in the dirt last night? It is just so evident they are pressing. The problem is once that sets in how do you reverse it?
I also agree it works to their advantage that they fell behind now as opposed to last season when they lost the lead on the last game of the season. They would much rather be chasing Philly then holding on to the lead.
September woes..
1997, 15-12, 4 games out of the WC
1998, 12-12 (5 loses to end the year), 2 games out of the WC
1999, 16-12 (with a 7 game losing streak in there and had to win the final 3 to get into the play-in game to get the WC)
……
2007, 14-14….1 out of Division
2008, 7-6, tied in the lose column
After looking into this I’m coming up with my own magic number. Less than 12 loses for the month.
12 games left, that means go 7-5 the rest of the way!
I belive to win the East thee need to go 9-3 the rest of the way (not happening) and WC might need 7-5 (gonna be tight)…
what about 2006 when we won the division? or 2000?
.:: gasp ::. how dare you post something about winning….especially in september.. you are banned from this thread!!
Well Matt,….. They certainly didn’t have the players to get it done in September last year….. Sounds like you are backing off from your post last week proclaiming the mets have officially left the collapse from last year behind, huh?
yea well not his fault….last week this team looked great. the offense was running on all cylinders with heavy production coming from the heart of the order. If they kept playing like that we wouldn’t be having this conversation right now.
You have to know this team by now….. One minute hitting and pitching, next offense is bye byes, and or pitching a wreck…
You make it sound like the Mets have cornered the market on this…would you prefer to be a Brewers fan right now…
Sounds more like he’s saying this may be a problem that dwarfs the collapse in comparison. A much larger need for clutch hitting when it’s most needed.
I never said the team left it behind. I said I did. Or, I said I was going to try.
Sadly, it’s pretty clear that the team has not left it behind… You can see it in the frustration, the bad at bats, their post game comments and the look in their eyes…
They know it’s happening… Heck, it’s happened… They have collapsed… Their lead is gone… They now have something they did not have in 2007, time… What they make of that additional time will make the difference between having a core of Reyes, Wright and Beltran still here in 2009 or not, IMO.
I’m not sure I understand your post. You’re saying if we don’t push to the postseason we should trade Wright, Reyes, and Beltran? Steve Phillips is that you…
Not AND… Or… I think that this team if they continue to coje up small offensively down the stretch has shown with 2 years in a row of this that there is something that is just not working… These are excellent offensive players but together they have not come through when it is needed most… Maye for psychological reason more than anything but perhaps a change for one is needed…
I wouldn’t trade away any of our best three players just to “shake things up.” We have big needs for next season (starting slot(s) in the rotation, BP, 2nd base/LF) and throwing away one of your best players is not the answer. Who would we even have replace any of the three that would produce comparable offense numbers while playing solid to excellent defense?
Obviously if you deal one of those three you will be getting someone special in return….
You aren’t trading them for someone like Melky Cabrera…
If they dont make the postseason the logical thing to do would be not to pick up Delgado’s option. Trading Wright & Reyes is not an option. It would be similar to the Yankees unloading Jeter. Beltran would be the only guy you trade, but who do you replace him with in CF? He is absolutely one of the top 3 CF’s in the game and at his current salary is now a bargain.
The real solution is getting young with guys like Murphy, Martinez, etc. and not relying on the Castillo, Alou types. You need hunger on a team and you need guys that are trying to make millions not guys that already have millions.
The Yankees have a starting lineup full of millionaires and each one of them has given up. The Rays have a lineup full of thousand aires and are fighting with every last ounce of effort.
The steriod area is over where players last after the age of 35. Smart teams are young and stay young.
And let’s not forget no more greenies…
so what you are saying is….your comment was insured by Geico.
I haven’t posted for a while b/c I decided earlier this summer to preserve my sanity and just watch the games and stay off Metsblog (which was taking up too much time and energy).
As of 7:45am CST 9/17/2008, the 2008 New York Mets are choking, heartless, soft, unfocused losers. After all the firings, call-ups, injuries, and acquisitions since last September…they are no different than they were 350 days ago.
Are the Mets a jinxed ballclub? ABSOLUTELY. You see, a jinx is not something tangible. It’s an idea. It’s an emotion. It’s a frame of mind. And it exists ONLY IF IT IS BELIEVED TO EXIST. And once it is believed, it begins to replace the real things that matter. Those things are focus, confidence, and natural reaction (see ball..hit ball). A jinx becomes real because it is allowed to.
We have a ruthless local media establishment that must bring up last September every chance it gets…hoping to see a repeat collapse so they can let it to replace real worthwhile reporting. We have a bruised and battered fan base that so easily doubts the team it supports (and justifiably). And we have a front office that has been scrambling to react and find remedy to the collapse for nearly a year. Are you telling me that none of this becomes embodied into the hearts and minds of those residing in the Mets clubhouse? This doesn’t translate onto the field of play at all, especially as the summer fades into fall? Based on what we have witnessed this past week, you are delusional if you think otherwise.
And Matt, I’m sorry my man, but your choice to post the Magic Number so early was a very poor decision. I don’t care who and how many voted for the posting. It’s your blog and you make the damn decisions. You’re a politics guy, so you should know better than to let polls make your decision, and then have the tenacity to blame the polls when it appears to backfire. Very weak. Now…Is it directly the cause of this mini-collapse by the guys on the field who are playing a game? Absolutely not. BUT, has it caused rage, doubts, and regrets and thus diverted the focus of the fan base from something far more deserving (like say…talking winning baseball games)? Absolutely. And that is why it is significant, because posting that damn magic number creates an unnecessary target and helps the jinx/curse/collapse gain momentum. Your decision, as minor and innocent as its intentions may have been, has grown exponentially and has blown up in your face. But we all make mistakes. What’s done is done. And it has no incremental effects only if we don’t allow it to.
12 games left. Better this happened now as opposed to late next week. Like my dog playing in the park, the Phillies act completely different when in the chaser role. Now they are being chased and have the pressure, let’s see what they got.
As for our beloved Mets. This is your low-point. Odalis phuking Perez just shut you out, scored the winning run, and knocked out your starting LF’er for the season. Could it get worse than that? I honestly DARE this team to make this situation worse, b/c I don’t think it could. Time to man up. Stop thinking about the curse/jinx/collapse, stop over-thinking at the plate, and just have fun. Winning happens easier when THAT becomes your focus. Play the game. Do that , and you will no longer be the losers you currently are.
Enough is enough. Mets win tonight by 7 runs.
welcome back…its been a while.
the perception of a jinx becoming ingrained onto our team is realistic. the players have it in the back of their minds. they have to answer questions from the media about it daily. when they struggle, they press to try and make sure that those struggles don’t continue b/c they don’t want a repeat of last year. very interesting stuff…alot of mental reactions…very plausible.
big game tonight and we have a guy making his 2nd start for us…great.
werent we in a very similar spot last year and called on Philip Humber to save us? How’d that work out?
Sad as it is, tonight is a must win and Santana should be pitching.
Oh but that would show that the team is panicking…
We can’t show that, everything is just fine and dandy…
“12 games left. Better this happened now as opposed to late next week. Like my dog playing in the park, the Phillies act completely different when in the chaser role. Now they are being chased and have the pressure, let’s see what they got. ”
-can the negative fans in this blog print this out and frame it….seriously
I stopped reading at “I haven’t posted for a while b/c I decided earlier this summer…..”
he’s got a point there…last year it was a slow collapse that ended abruptly, where as this year, we are a better team (no one can argue that, maybe closer role not so much) and we lost first place now and not the last game of the season. we have time to right the ship…and thankfully there are 2 routes to the playoffs.
Brilliant post. I think its easier for some to go negative, because they think it will ease their disappointment if things DO go wrong. However, they’re wrong…It just ruins the whole ride.
Let’s help the boys turn this karma train around. From what I’m told and the fragments I recall It worked in ‘69 and ‘73. You gotta believe!! Cause what you believe is what will inevitably happen.
Great great post, except for one thing. Don’t dare it to get worse, because it could. I just hope it doesn’t.
i take it back. with this team, one should be careful what they wish for.
Excellent post. Very well put. I concur with everything you said.
And yes Matt, you did f*** up big time by putting up that silly magic number count down…unreal. As silly and as irrevelavant as it may seem, you contributed to the general negative psyche of the fan base. How can you call yourself a Met fan.
Phillies are playing with house money… They know they are good enought to win the Wild Card and they know they are in the Mets heads and they know they can come back and score essentially at will on any team…
I don’t necessarily buy that “Phillies are in the Mets heads” concept. They have no games with them left, and I’m pretty sure the Mets know that if they win they can make it happen on their own.
It’s just that the tension is palpable right now.
But can they… I mean the Mets do not control their own destiny… If they and the Phils remain tied then they most certainly will be playing Philly, in Philly on Sept. 29….
Isn’t that controling your own destiny? Do not lose more than the Phillies here on and win the playoff game (which would only exist if the Brewers start playing well again.)
With the way the Phillies are playing right now do you think that is realistic?
Didn’t the Mets win the season series against the Phillies this year?
I usually put little stock into concepts like “clutch,” “momentum,” etc. But I do think that the Mets are falling victim to psychology. We’ve watched the bullpen blow game after game all season, and yet only now – only in September – has it seemed to get under the players’ skin. Now it’s in their heads that they need to do MORE to win a game than otherwise would be necessary. This leads to added pressure, which leads to “pressing,” which leads to over-aggressiveness, and bad plays. And that leads the team into second place.
“We’re a better-hitting club than we’ve shown here”…… No, you are NOT!
sluggo and mr hand are philly fans
Really? I was unaware that Carlos and Carlos were batting .000 for the season…you know since they’re not any better than this current 2 game sample size…
Here is a strange idea, how about the mets not allowing the media in the locker room, is that allowed??????
yeah right….millions of dollars in salaries and the media is not allowed in?? Get a grip
What does them getting paid millions have to do with the media getting into the locker room, my point was is the media and fans just cant let last year go, so then why subject them to the BS. So y dont you get a grip.
I Believe! Let’s Go Met’s! 2008 NL East Division Champions!
Delusional…
the comes with being a mets fan
I want them to win this thing so bad… I don’t want to ‘back in’ to the WC…
But if you take a realistic look at the Phillie vs. us right now you have to put the money on Philly.
did you also put money on the cards in 06???
they were in the same or worse shape than we are right now
I didn’t think the Cards had a prayer… But LaRussa pulled the right strings and the Mets bats went silent when they were most needed…
“But if you take a realistic look at the Phillie vs. us right now you have to put the money on Philly.”
Would you have said that one week ago? Will you be saying that one week from now? Who knows?
the issue is that it should never have come to this… We’ve dropped four games in the loss column in five days…
If you are a team that wants to win the World Series, you seal the deal…
“These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. ”
—Thomas Paine
Great line but unfortunately on this site Thomas Paine would get boooooed.
Kudos, kd bart. Well put.
Well written! Also, who is October clutch – and will we get to find out? When I go to that place, all I can think about is Beltran looking at strike 3. That kid Hinckley reminded me somehow of Adam Wainwright and considering we have two more games against the Nats, that’s a scary thought.
There is no such thing as “September clutch” or “postseason clutch” or any other manner of clutch. It’s all sample sizes Almost all players have “clutch” numbers that are nearly identical to their career numbers.
Example: Derek Jeter, the clutchiest McClutcherson who people like to cite.
Career: .316/.387/.459
Career RISP: .311/.405/.434
David Wright:
Career: .308/.388/.534
Career RISP: .301/.396/.503
Carlos Beltran:
Career: .280/.356/.495
Career RISP: .305/.384/.536
!
What’s this?
Carlos Beltran is “clutch,” relatively speaking, in that his career RISP numbers are noticeably better than his career numbers?!
Ignore that, fellow Mets fans!
Anyway, the best thing to remember is that this isn’t a repeat of last year — it’s just coincidence. All teams go through rough patches multiple times during every season; it’s just a lot more noticeable when it happens in September.
The Mets’ problem is not a lack of “September clutch.” It’s their lack of reliable arms out of the bullpen.
you dont have to have RISP to be clutch….solo hr? leadoff double to start a rally?
Well said. Saying a player is “clutch” is like saying wins is a good metric for measuring how good a pitcher is (see Santana 2008 vs. Trachsel 2006)
Clutch is self-fulfilling since it is such a relative term. Since 2006, DWright leads MLB with 51 game-winning RBIs. Surely this makes him clutch right? How about Delgado’s last few weeks (really since the ASB)? Just because he had two bad games he’s lost his “clutchiness” (TM, patent pending).
Once you’ve made up your mind whether a player is clutch or not you only see the data that backs it up and conveniently, forget the rest. When Jeter strikes out in the bottom of the ninth to end a game, everyone just shrugs and forgets it. Then when he slaps in a game winning single everyone jumps and screams “SEE HE IS THE GREATEST CLUTCH PLAYER EVER!@#!@#!@!!”
It goes both ways. The better a player is the more likely he is to perform in any situation. However, there are clearly some players who struggle in pressure situations. Those players usually are not very good to start with so the numbers even out. Also, baseball is a game of streaks. Wright hits a grand slam the other night instead of a DP and he goes on a tear and brings his average back up.
There is such thing as clutch but most good players are clutch.
“most good players are clutch” = “most good players are good.”
Exactly Andrew. There are very few exceptions to the rule posted above. Given a sample a good player will be good over a period of time and a bad player will be bad.
I grant that there is psychology involved with hitting and pitching, but the way some players are saddled with relative terms like “clutch” seems very arbitrary to me. More likely, the “analysts” on ESPN flash some stats, make sweeping statements about a player, and before you know it the fans are repeating it as an obvious fact.
Almost all players have “clutch” numbers that are nearly identical to their career numbers.
Your problem, Andrew, is that you are defining clutch by comparing career RISP numbers with normal career numbers. That is hardly a good way to determine clutch. A base hit w-RISP in a meaningless game in April is hardly a clutch situation. A base hit close and late without anyone on base is more clutch when it’s late in the season in a pennant race or in the postseason. If you use real clutch situations like that to measure clutchness, you’ll find it exists.
Bill James is starting to come around on the issue of clutchness as well.
I suggest you read the following article as a starter and do additional research on the internet:
sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/30/james.clutch/index.html
“A base hit w-RISP in a meaningless game in April is hardly a clutch situation. ”
If we won more of those “meaningless” games in April just imagine where we’d be now. A season is a marathon not a sprint, and every game matters just the same in the win column. There is psychology behind wins and losses but you can’t sweep away the psychological pluses with one hand while waving the negatives around as a banner.
While it’s true that every game in a season counts the same, it is not true that the pressure in games in April is the same as the pressure in games such as the Mets are playing now. Everyone knows that. And games down the stretch are more meaningful in that those are the games in which teams can make up ground lost earlier in the season. A manager will manage differently, for example, than for a July game. The use of Evans and Murphy is a prime example.
There is psychology behind wins and losses but you can’t sweep away the psychological pluses with one hand while waving the negatives around as a banner.
I don’t get what you are trying to say there. Can you explain?
What I was trying to say (poorly…) was that those hits with RISP in April build confidence and determination that can carry throughout a season. A player who’s pressing and has something positive to look back on may rebound faster than one who doesn’t.
“Clutch” is all about psychology, and I don’t think it’s fair to dismiss positive psychological aspects (getting a 2-out RBI in April) while zeroing in on negative ones (Wright’s GIDP the other night).
Who’s dismissing the positive psychological aspects in April? The belief that clutchness does exist as espoused by Bill James, does not negate the value of an April win or good performance.
But lets say that both Howard and Wright have identical numbers up to September … but that once September rolls around and the pressure builds, Howard’s number are better. Then I would say he is MORE clutch.
BTW, that is just an example and I would not say that Wright is not clutch in general. His September numbers are historically excellent. He’s just struggling this year in September for whatever reasons.
I was giving an example. “Close and late” numbers tend to average out as well. James’ article is well and good, and I respect Bill James a lot for his contribution to statistical analysis in baseball, but basically what his analysis comes down to is that some really great hitters have even better numbers in “clutch” situations. Well, hey, no contest. I was there for Pujols’ extra-inning homer off Heilman this year, among others in the past.
Of course, there are even more factors that James himself doesn’t cover — for example, a great hitter is likelier to hit better later in a game because he’s facing relief pitchers, who are (in theory, but also mostly in practice) not as good as starting pitchers, and also have more pressure on them to throw pitches in the strike zone. Something like that is hard to quantify; I wouldn’t know where to begin.
But I refuse to believe that there is anything about the turn of the calendar that makes one player more “clutch” or another less so.
i think you’re missing the point. It’s not that close and late numbers per se are any more indicative of a clutch situation, it’s that the game in late September in a pennant race, for example, is more indicative of a clutch situation — whether it is close and late or simple RISP or close and early.
but basically what his analysis comes down to is that some really great hitters have even better numbers in “clutch” situations. Well, hey, no contest.
He’s saying some players are more clutch than others. And I agree.
But I refuse to believe that there is anything about the turn of the calendar that makes one player more “clutch” or another less so.
You just contradicted yourself. You agreed with Bill James on the one hand in his belief that some players are more clutch than others. Then you say not?
Be consistent. You either agree wtih Bill James contention. Or not.
IMO, he’s right. Some players are more clutch than others.
for example, a great hitter is likelier to hit better later in a game because he’s facing relief pitchers, who are (in theory, but also mostly in practice) not as good as starting pitchers,
How would that affect clutchness? Every guy on the team would face that same pitcher too. It’s not like Wright, for example, has to face him but Beltran doesn’t.
Also, theoretically, if a team is facing an opponent with a good bullpen (ie, some of the bullpens the Yankees used to have), then hitting against the bullpen may be significantly harder than hitting against the starter.
I didn’t contradict myself at all. Great hitters will be great hitters, and they will do statistically anomalous things. I’m not agreeing that they’re more clutch; I’m saying that they have out-of-this-world numbers normally, and it makes sense that some of these really great hitters would have even more ridiculously good numbers in these narrowly defined “clutch” situations, while others don’t.
But not all great hitters do well in clutch situations. For example, in clutch situations as defined by Bill James, someone like Bonds would come up short. And no one had more “out-of-this-world” numbers in everyday situations than him.
And A-Rod is a great hitter but not a great clutch hitter.
So what Bill James is saying is that some hitters are more clutch than others, whether they are great hitters or not. And some great hitters are not very clutch compared to other great hitters.
So you’re disagreeing with James, right? You can’t have it both ways.
James showed me a very small sample in that article; I’ll believe him if and when he has more comprehensive results.
LOL, fine, you disagree with him. I just wanted to know since your position seemed hazy.
IMO, James has done sufficient work to support what me and many other fans have long held — that clutch hitting does indeed exist and some players are more clutch than others.
In addition, I suspect Howard would come up high on the clutchness scale due to not only his performance this September in a pennant race, but an almost identical clutch performance down the stretch in 2006.
(This is VCarver … I just switched over to my current preferred ID)
I thought you looked familiar with your use of BOLD quotes
I haven’t been trying to hide as I’ve let others know who I am in the past. I took this ID as a sort of political statement, LOL.
It’s something I feel strongly about — that Heilman has been misused by the Mets for the last 2-3 years. And now it has come back to bite the team. How useful is he now?
If the Mets try to count on Heilman for the pen next year then they are incompetent.
Joba has been more successful in the pen for the Yankees than Heilman has ever been for the Mets. Yet, they are asking him what he wants to do — start or relieve. Wow, what a novel idea … trying to put players in their optimal roles and trying to do what’s best for the player as well as the organization.
They realize that a player who feels he’s being used in the correct way is a better motivated individual.
hey, bright side folks, were a half game up on the brewers for the wildcard. i want the divison but i still feel if this team makes the playoffs, theyll make some real noise. LETS GO METS!!!!
After being up for most of the summer will a Wild Card spot really be satisfying?
Must got 7-5 for WC, 9-3 for the division…
i dont really care how we get there as long as we get there…
playoffs are a crapshoot once your in.
Can this team, which was shut down by John Lannan and Odalis Perez, beat Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden in short playoff series? Doubtful…
call me crazy…but I think so…I think we play very well against good competition…not so much against fringe players. Cardinals beat us bad in 06 but it wasn;t their ace that did so, rather jeff suppan (where is he now) and jeff weaver( where is HE now lol)
what im sayin is…for some reason…id rather face a teams ace who we may have had more exposure too than these fringe players taht we havent faced much with success….now you could argue that about harden and i would agree…he could light us up…but we’ve gotten to zambrano b4.
this shouldn’t be the case though…and maybe shouldn’t be counted on…but i did say call me crazy.
I can only pray you are right… We’ll likely see both next week…
relax.
the stopper is going tonight: brandon knight
lmao…i know frustrating right?
Blame the DH on Saturday for it…
AJ Happless is pitching for the Phillies this week too.
Go ahead, lock me in a small room with a TV that only runs CSPAN 24 hours a day. Send me to a four day insurance seminar that discusses the virtues of whole life insurance. Give me a job counting the number of cars that enter the Lincoln Tunnel during rush hour…because I can take it. Why, you ask? Because I am a Mets fan. At this point, I can handle anything. But I never lose hope, and I never stop rooting. On the other hand, I wish they would come out with a TV remote that wouldn’t shatter into a million pieces when it hits the wall at 60 mph…that is getting expensive.
ha
its funny…when i read these posts i keep hearing that sonny & cher song “I got you babe” (?) in my head…
I wonder why?
LOL – AWESOME post (though I still think the Mets will win).
At least we can all become piano maestros and impress our friends at Jeopardy! each night.
Ramon Castro hit a HR in his second to last start last season, the team then got swept by Washington and the one game to the Cards — Castro not playing any of those games. His next start was another HR, and a near no-hit call on the second to last game of the year.
Last night he gets a single on one leg. Schneider is ok, but Castro HAS to get himself in a position to play more. With Easley out the bottom 3 are so weak.
Great point! We need Castro!
This team simply lacks the heart to respond when the situation truly calls – Wright and Reyes are tremendous talents – I would never waste my time arguing against that- but they seem to lack the intangibles that distinguish “successful” players from simply “great “ones. Wright is too soft-spoken, and Reyes keep saying the same thing over and over again: that the team will eventually play well. There are 12 games left, and we no longer control our own destiny of securing a playoff spot – they need to go on a roll and win 9 or 10 out of the next 12 – tey have done it before, and need to do it again. I believe in momentum in sports, and if they go out tonight and put a bunch of runs up for Knight (something they might very well have to do), they can secure a win, then rely on Santana to shut the Nats down on Thursday – it’s time to attack the opposition with one of the most fearsome lineups in the National League – Let’s Go Mets!!!!!!!
What do you expect them to say, that the team WON’T eventually play well? They understand the dynamics of the game, that there are ups and downs.
Why do we no longer control our own destiny? We have the lead in the WC and are tied in the loss colomun with the Phillies. If we don’t lose anymore than the Phillies from here on then don’t we still control our destiny?
we do control it…by a millimeter
please tell what you want reyes to say? just curious
The offense is playing WAY too tight. It’s as if they think they have 2-4 games left instead of 11.
BTW, I think Odalis Perez was doctoring the ball. Never seen his slider THAT good. He probably had dirt or pine tar on his hand like Kenny Rogers in the WS. And of course on a darker skinned person, that is far less noticeable.
“Watch that september baseball Mets…ITS A DOOZY!”
‘Your season has come”
We know the answer: NOBODY
SInce Oct 2006, NOBODY has answered the call well enough.
The real question is who’s going to be moved in the offseason from the 3 core guys? Because you CANNOT build a team around losers and chokers.
Hard to argue that.
If we trade Wright, Beltran, or Reyes we might not make the playoffs anymore!
Oh…never mind.
Everyone is a loser until he wins.
Make that “until they win.”
So it sounds less retarded.
Ok ok ok ok, the offense hasn’t been there a few games this year, but you do realize that the bullpen has blown what, 26 games? 11 of them in the 9th inning? Imagine if we had won all of those? None of you would complain about David, or Los Carlos. The team, minus the BULLPEN which Omar doesn’t want to do a thing about is the cancer.
er, I meant the BP is the cancer, the team has done well.
Hi everybody, welcome to 2007, please keep your hands and feet inside the train while the wreck is in progress.
The opportunity is there for someone to be the man. Neise did it, Pelfrey did last night, with Tatis out maybe Murphy will. I am a little confused why he isn’t at second now, they have to stop worrying about hurting Castillo’s feelings. Put Evans or Anderson in LF. Gotta mix it up some. Move Wright up to second in the order, and move everybody else up a spot and drop Castillo/Anderson to eighth spot. Do something goofy and unusual. Bat Beltran leadoff, Put the pitcher in the 8 spot, loosen it up a bit, take some pressure off and let ir rip. They were squeezing the bats real tight last night. Take a game and just turn the lineup upside down. Can’t score fewer than 0 runs.
You guys are the worst fans ever.
towelie…you’re the worst character ever
towlie: I Knowwww (puffs a jay)
At least this season the manager makes statements that actually sound like he’s paying attention. Of course, Jerry can’t speak the team into the playoffs (or can he).
Can we get Turk Wendell out of retirement?
That would be sweet… they could pay him $9,999.99 per inning
Here’s what I’d like to know: why is it that the cynical Mets fans have completely taken over the “ya gotta believe” Mets fans. Tug, come back — we need you!
Because of past history… And history has repeated itself…
Why? Maybe some of us are sick and tired of being abused spouses when it comes to this team.
I’m sick of this “ya gotta believe” backs to the wall bullspit.
How about this:
1) Build the best team
2) Go out and win
How is hit and run the answer when we never have men on base to hit and run with? The 1 time we did hit and run the scrub pinch runner stopped at 2nd instead of taking 3rd, which could have led to a tie game.
What would you retards want this team to say? “We’re going to lose and we just give up” ? Would it make you feel better? You guys can feel irked and scared all you want, but the only way through it is to try to believe this team. Stop being such pansies and cheer for the Mets. Because if the Mets lay down its because the fans are already laying down with them.
A week ago the Philly forums sounded an awful alot like this on their skid – things in baseball can change fast. So chin up.
My dad is a lifelong Bucs fan, so from my angle it’s a joy just to be sniffing the playoffs several years in a row. Granted, the payroll-to-success ratio is a bit skewed, but hey…we’re doing better than the Yanks.
Trading Wright or Reyes? That’s why you fellas aren’t GMs. . They’ll figure out how to play late-season ball sooner or later. In the meantime, enjoy watching two of the best players in the majors wearing blue and orange.
ARod’s been trying to figure out how to get a clutch hit for 10 years.
Some players are just born losers and team-killers. Look at the Red Sox dumping Nomar mid-year and then winning the WS.
This year they dump Manny, and their numbers have improved ever since.
Just as some players make everyone around them better, certainly other playes make everyone around them worse.
If the Mets are built around Reyes, and he can never get on base in September, then really, what good is he?
If Wright fails in every clutch situation, is he really so valuable?
Let’s face it, the games are more important in September and October than April and May, and the Mets have absolutely no one who can perform now.
Wright saying he’s having “fun” just sickens me. If he’s having “fun” right now, then he doesn’t get it, and never will. Sorry.
if you didnt see his frustration last night then there is no hope for you…
I don’t want to see his frustration. I want to see one hit when it matters.
And I don’t want to see him talking about how much fun he’s having while the team chokes away another season.
“They’ll learn how to play late season ball sooner or later”
Really?
Some guys NEVER learn that.
How many times you want the team to kick you in the groin while we wait to see if Jose can ever bat over .250 in Sept or if Wright can drive in a clutch run?
STOP WITH THIS CLUTCH RUN BS…. please go root for another team
Why should I “stop” with clutch run stuff? You don’t like it, take it up with Arod Jr
mets score the most runs in the 1st three innings but can’t score in the final three innings.
mets take first place for a good portion of the season the past 2 years but can’t seem to close it out at the end of the year.
the only word to describe that type of play and behavior is chokers.
arod took like 10 games to get his 500th homerun. he was stuck on 499 for a while. that’s a choker. derek jeter needed 9 hits in 10 games to break gehrig’s record so he comes out and basically gets 3 hits a game for 3 games in a row. that’s not a choker.
Speaking of chokers…
How about David Wright batting .315 with no one on base, and .188 with the bases loaded? His OPS breakdown in the same spots is 953 and 616.
Wright has 15 RBI with no one on base (15 HR), and he has 10 RBI in 16 AB with the bases loaded. 10!
With runners on base and 2 out, he’s batting .235.
He’s basically an automatic out in any clutch spot.
ya and hes batting 303 in late/close situations….please explain that
Explain Septmeber 2007 and September 2008.
I’m still waiting for our “MVP” to make a difference. But as long as he’s having fun that’s all that matters. It’s just a game after all. Good for him.
hj, etc., the ENTIRE POINT of Matt’s post is that there may be a difference (and IS a difference) between “close and late” in May, and a first inning at bat in the heat of a pennant race, in September, on the road, after a crushing loss.
Sample sizes sample sizes SAMPLE SIZES.
Most players are an automatic out in clutch situations. Even if you hit .300 with RISP, you’re still out 7 times out of ten (look, I did math). I’m sick of Wright making an out as much as anyone, but its not just him. Its a freakin’ epidemic. And I’m sooooooo tired hear about Jeter (unless he was on trial). Yes he’s a HoFer, but his best clutch days were 10 years ago. He’s about average now.
I said something similar (specifically with reference to Reyes) about “September clutch”, and Matt is completely right to apply it to the whole team. Matt followed up a poor post (magic number shenanigans) with a terrific one. This team may have a fundamental flaw — they can’t handle “24-hour” pressure. The kind of gnawing, nagging presssure that doesn’t allow you to leave a poor performance at the park.
Solution? Well, it’s hard to look into their heads and guts, but they’re all professionals and need to do whatever it takes to have failure elevate their games, not leave them dejected. Personally, I suspect a leadership vacuum. Young players who prefer to defer (or go clubbing) and quiet veterans who prefer to go about their business quietly. There’s no one to make a team out of these guys.
You cannot bring the same club back 3 years in a row. Yes, fix the pen but THAT IS NOT THE SOLUTION.
You gotta get tough guys in here. Look at Philly- those are tough guys. Every single one of those guys has a “f**k you” attitude
The Mets have quiet guys, a bunch of wusses and dancing idiots. Every single Mets player has a “f**k me” attitude.
This is NY. You need to be strong or get the f**k out. Wusses play for PIT or KC.
I wouldn’t put it that way, but actually agree with you. This seems like a very immature, simplistic, knuckle-dragging way to think about things, but here goes: can you imagine any of these Mets really taking charge during a brawl, defending his teammates and throwing punches (if the other team throws them)? For the Phillies, you’ve got Werth, Victorino, Rollins, Myers, Hamels, Lidge, etc., etc., etc.
You may or may not be right about this toughness thing, but would you be even saying this if the Mets were 3-4 games ahead now instead 1/2 a game behind?
If the Mets bullpen had just been league average in terms of blown saves, the team would be in the lead right now. And the Phillies would be behind so what would you say about them? They are tough guys, but losers?
If we were three or four games ahead now, we’d be watching the lead dwindling. We did this experiment. It was called “2007.”
Actually, if we were 3 or 4 games ahead, it means we would have won our games this past weekend and at least one of the Nats games…
If that was the case, I would be confident that this team was going to hold on…
Actually not. If the Mets were 3 or 4 games ahead because they had at least a league average bullpen, they could have still lost the 2 games to the Braves this weekend and at least one of the Nats games. Because they would have entered that weekend in a vastly better position than they did. For example, perhaps 8 up in the standings.
Hey, I’ve invested to many hours and sleepless nights on this team already this year for me to bail out on this now. I’m a Die Hard Mets fan since 1968 and have seen much more worse times than this. That said, if they lay down again this year like they did last year, I will lose all respect for this team and for the individual players. I’ll still be a Mets fan till the day I die, I just won’t have any respect or confidence in this particular group of players going forward. They need to show me and us something in the remaining 12 games. I still believe they will get the job done somehow, but if they just lay down and die again, well………………………………………….this group of players and the make-up of this team will have to seriously be re-evaluated in the off-season. Omar?
Clutchness does exist. I would say right now, none of the Mets are very clutch but that can change this week.
What worries me is that even though it was the offense that failed yesterday, I suspect it is in large part due to the psychological fallout of having a bullpen that blows so many games for your team … just like last fall. It all goes back to the bullpen, no matter what anyone thinks, IMO.
\
If I had to give out the MVP award today, I’d give it to Howard. That could change by the end of the season, and it could be a Met who is more deserving. He’s been very clutch this fall and also in 2006.
For anyone who doubts that clutchness exists, please read this article by Bill James ….
sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/11/30/james.clutch/index.html
To clarify … having such a poor bullpen puts added pressure on the hitters who feel they have to do EXTRA each game in order to win. So they press. And it shows.
in honor of the 2008 NY METS Choke, Im protesting RICE+ BEANS anyone want to join?
What do you mean “protesting rice + beans” :?:
Must
Explode
This
Sept.
LOL….I burst out laughing at my desk…Nice!
When discussing trading Wright or Reyes, you have to remember that these are coveted players, and the Mets could get back enormous talent for one of them.
For example, Toronto is desperate for hitters and a 3B. What if the Mets could get Roy Halladay for Wright?
There are plenty of teams who give the Mets an elite player and bullpen help for Wright or Reyes.
Tampa has loads of young talent the Mets could use. Wright for Crawford?
There are a lot of possibilities out there. It’s definitely something a GM should explore.
Amen, though I’d ditch Reyes before Wright. Wright is a fantastic hitter, who could benefit from a leadership presence and DID perform last September. He has the correct work ethic. Reyes is a tremedous physical talent who happens also to be an absolute clown.
I’d do wright for holladay in heartbeat
Why would you trade Wright for Crawford? That makes no sense. Wright is one of the top 5 3B in the game. Is Crawford one of the top 5 OF in the game?
As for Halladay, wouldn’t the Jays be more likely to trade Wells and Rios and build around Halladay? If they did trade him it would be a fire sell and they would want prospects and not 1 established player.
This is all fantasy.
This is sad….fatso is being harder on the Mets than RABID METS FAN Joe Benigno
Even Joe no longer believes
He gets his rocks off by knocking the Mets. Even if he says otherwise. Especially now that his own team is so dismal.
If we had a half-decent bullpen, no one would be talking about clutchness and choking and loserness and whatever.
Sorry, guys, but blame the people who deserve to be blamed. If our bullpen pitched just as well this year as the Phillies’ pen has, we’d be running away with the division.
RUNNING.
AWAY.
Do not blame the hitters. They can only do so much. Yeah yeah yeah, David Wright is hitting .243 with RISP this year and .188 with the bases loaded. Last year, he hit .310 with RISP and .444 with the bases loaded.
He didn’t forget how to be clutch. It’s all sample sizes!
Trading Reyes or Wright would be catastrophically stupid. They’re young and they’re cheap (relatively speaking) and under control for several more years (2 for Reyes and 3 for Wright, if I recall correctly). Oh, and they’re superstars. Yeah. That minor detail too.
I would not trade Beltran, Reyes, or Wright, no matter what happens the rest of the way. As I said above, if the bullpen had been league average, the team would be in first place. It’s up to Omar to construct at least a league average pen, if not better, with the budget he as to work with.
But no doubt about it, this year, Wright and Reyes have down poorly in clutch situations.
All you guys demanding to trade Reyes or Wright or Beltran are absolute morons and clueless to say the least. I tried to believe you were all just joking or being sarcastic, but I’m really starting to believe that there are some of you who are actually be real about this.
You have to talented, home-grown superstars, relatively cheap for the type of production they give you and you want to trade them. What a bunch of Dumb-azzes you are. We haven’t had homegrown talent like this since the 80’s, which they ended up snorting away their talents, and you want to blow it up. IDIOTS!!!!