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During last night’s 7 to 2 victory over the Nationals, Mets LHP Johan Santana allowed one run on eight hits and two walks, while striking out eight over seven innings.
Santana lowered his ERA this season to 2.65 and his undefeated (7-0) in his last 14 starts.
Santana, on being nervous handing over a six run lead to the bullpen, speaking with reporters after the game:
“Nervous? Nervous for what? No, not at all. I trust my team. Even though sometimes we cannot get it done, that doesn’t mean I don’t trust them. Tonight they got everything done, took care of business and that’s it. We move forward.”
…it’s sad that reporters even have to ask any starting pitcher about leaving after the seventh with a six run lead, but that’s what you get with the Mets bullpen…it truly is like playing russian roulette…
Santana also spoke about the team scoreboard watching:
“You watch other games, but at the same time, you can’t wait for other teams to make it happen. I know coming into this stretch that every game is important to us. Even though it doesn’t look like too many games, we still have a long way to go. We can’t just go through the motions.”
…right, which is what the the 2007 verision of the Mets seemingly did last season…this is why with santana in the fold this season, i don’t believe these Mets will experience the same fate…
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I’m glad that they are not going through the motions, but I don’t think they did that last year. They panicked, pressed, and got beat.
My predictions for the remainder of the Mets’ season:
Lose 2 of 3 to the Braves
Lose 3 of 4 to the Cubs
Lose 2 of 3 to the Marlins
…another 88-win special, and they’ll be watching the Phillies-Brewers series on TV in October.
Wow, you are a possitive guy. You must be a joy to be around.
so, you are saying you aren’t a Mets fan?
my prediction for the remainder of your life:
misery :)
if you always expect failure…you will never be disappointed.
red sox fans were sooooo happy from 1918 to 2004
No one cares what you think, you Negative Nancy
Thank you matt. This IS a different team than last year and i dont know why people dont understand this. Yes the same stuff might be happening but look the phillies are in first place and the baseball year is NOT over. People got to realize yes the collapse did happen but what messed everything up was that philly took 1st place on the LAST day of the season. Had there been more time like there is now…perhaps there would have been a different result. This year we have the opportunity to change our fate from last year. The mets have been playing MUCH better since they lost 1st place with phills. Maybe this is what this team needs is the chase mentality. Someone has to mess up sooner than later and hopeuflly when the phillies do, we will be going into a 7 game win streak of our own…..
Please do not sugar coat last year…
“HAD THERE BEEN MORE TIME” are you serious.
Even getting past the Phillies series last September in the final 14 games, had the Mets just gone 7-7 they would have wont the division. They lost 6 of 7 games at home in the final week, they did not run out of time.
i am not trying to sugar coat last year but rather draw comparisons to last year based off the current state of the season and people refering to loosing a 3.5 game lead a “collapse”. Yes the mets lost 1st place this year…we still have games to play that could change the outcome…and thats what makes this year different than last is the mets have time. They didnt have time last year to regain 1st since philly took it on the last day…that was simply my point.
Just to clarify…..we technically did not “lose” 1st place yet. The Phillies have played 1 more game than us and won. When you’re tied in the loss column at this point in the season, you technically have a share of 1st place.
very good point pap.
the one huge difference that nobody seems to have pointed out is that last year we had a 7 game lead with 17 games to do. this year, we did not. so yes, we have a different (arguably better) team this year, but we are not being afforded the same luxury of a huge lead to blow. this year, we are not even in first place with 10 games left.
not to be pessimistic, but that is why this year COULD end up being the same as lasy year. lets not just get blindly optimistic and call this year’s team that much better.
See and thats where i look at it differently. Yes we dont have the same lead to blow and we are not even in first place with 10 games left(1st differance from last year, we gave up 1st with 13 games to go, rather than last year we gave up 1st with 0 games to go). The phillies were not in first place with 10 games left(2nd difference from last year in that we are chasers this year with an arguably better team than in 05 when when we chased last time). It very well could be the same as last year and the mets miss the playoffs but the differance in alot of ways from last year is we were not as dominant as we were last year. We fell as low as 4th place in the division this year and we fought to get up to the top. Its not overly optimistic by cheering your team and hoping they get in the postseason. They have a MUCH better chance given the collapse(which noone is really talking about) with the brewers. One way or another i truley believe we will get into the post season. Thats my faith..whats yours…
i agree, i think and hope they will make the playoffs as well
i just wanted to point out that we dont have the same lead as last year, thats all…so it wouldn’t exactly be a “collapse” if we dont…
just because we have good momentum going into late september this year and didn’t last year doesn’t mean our result will necessarily be better, because we’ve got a much smaller cushion for error
“i just wanted to point out that we dont have the same lead as last year, thats all…so it wouldn’t exactly be a “collapse” if we dont”
-agreed 100%. I can see how people can see losing a 3.5 game lead would be a “collapse”….its just not as dramatic a “collapse” given the lead and dominance last year imo
plus we lost first place on the last day of the season last year…we already lost it now (well not technically) with 10 games to go
I hate the media. What a stupid question. Do you get nervous when your BP comes in? What do they expect him to say? “Have you seen them pitch, they are terrible, of course I am nervous. They have cost me 7 wins and a lot of money. Are you a moron?”
That is the media’s job.
It is Santana’s to distract.
Look bottom line it is all good and well to say this is this year and last year was last year and things are different, and sure in a lot of ways they are.
But Santana is only going to pitch 2 more times in the final 10 games.
This season does NOT only come down to Santana, it comes down to Perez, Pelfrey, Martinez and Jon Niese.
Last year the Mets had no stopper, so okay, check Santana. But they also had tired Perez and Maine, which could just as easily be tired Perez and Pelfrey. They have Pedro who just never got on the bus this year and the ultimate question mark in Jon Niese.
Pat did I say otherwise? I am just comenting on the media. How it has became their job to try and make something out of nothing. They trap the players and then make a big story out of it. There is no more journalism.
As for last year, this is a different season. It may have the same result but none the less it is a different season and should be judged as so.
thank you real which was my point in my post above..obviously patrick has missed the mark
yea tired maine, who pitched the best game of his career the second to last game of the season.
How come people mention our starters being tired? Don’t other teams’ pitchers get tired too? Our starters are no different than anyone else’s, except that they should be more rested since the bullpen guys have 80 appearances each.
the guys that get tired are those that have reached career high’s in innings and are entering unchartered territory. But Pelfrey looked good last time out and Niese looked fine. Pedro is just gettin warmed up. Power pitchers usually get stronger as the year goes on so I see Ollie, Pelfrey, and Johan just getting better.
yea…he’s kind of a big deal.
lol…he’s kinda a somebody…
go get on a yankees blog. and while you’re watching that brewers series…..
does johna’s velocity on his fastball concern anyone? with the twins, didn’t he consistently hit 95 on the radar? nowadays, he’s sitting around 90-91. he only gets to 94-95 once in a while. when he is not hitting his spots, he’s going to run in to trouble, eventually, i think.
2 or 3 years from now i think it may become an issue if he can’t get his velo back.
Johan has not been hitting 95 since he learned how to pitch. He was a 91-93 mph pitcher for the last few years including his last Cy year.
not what from what i recall, he was hit hitting 94-95 pretty consistently in minnny the last few yrs
it might not be an issue today….but i can say for a fact that there are days when a pitcher is not locating his fastball and just can’t his spots. if a guy throws 95+, he can sometimes get away with throwing something over the plate just cuz he beat the hitter with his gas. but when he’s lost 5 mph on his fastball, all of a sudden, he cant afford to miss his spots as much anymore, and if he leaves something out over the plate, he will pay the price that much more…
i can potentially see this as an issue down the road
pedrro martinez is a small guy at 5′11, and johan, although he has a “better” build, isn’t exactly a big guy at 6′0…but pedro even in his early 30’s was dialing up the radar guns with hard fastballs…i’m wondering if johan will be able to as he enters that age…
i am hoping that i am wrong, just saying that it is in the back of my mind
The secret to Johan’s success is that he mixes it up — he throws offspeed pitches as often as he throws his fastball, and moves all around the strike zone. He’s not a power pitcher; he does not get people out by throwing the ball past them at unfathomable speeds; he gets them out by never throwing the same pitch twice and keeping them off-balance.
Santana can throw the ball at 95 mph, but he doesn’t need to, most of the time, so he doesn’t. Why should he? Taking a couple of mph off of the fastball makes his arm last a little longer. Plus, it gives him an additional option: not only can he throw change-ups and slow things down, but he can also sometimes throw a ball extra hard, and that can trip people up as well.
I am not concerned at all. I think what you’re seeing from Johan with respect to velocity is very intentional.
he will be throwing harder the rest of the year, hopefully many more starts…hard throwers start slow and he will be consistently throwing 91-93 rest of the way.
as long as his changeup is slow enough away from whatever speed his fastball is…he will be just fine.
he still has to be able to get hitters to swing and miss (or at least not put a good swing) on his fastballs…hittters nowadays can often go up guessing and looking for a pitch. if someone is looking for a fastball, and it doesn’t have much on it, its not as hard to hit…
either he gets his velo back up to 95 or i think he might have some issues down the road…at least i dont think his ERA will be under 3.00 3 years from now in the fat part of his contract if his velo is sitting at 90-91…the NL will start to figure him out
i want him to be an ace for the next 5 yrs…91 mph is not ace stuff
Again, I don’t know what Johan you have been watching the last 3-5 years because he has not been at 95 in years.
And with that being said, I guess Maddux was never an Ace. See I thought the object was to get hitters out, not throw your arm out trying to overthrow every pitch. My bad. Same junk with Krod. He learns that he does not have to throw 99 and that he will have more stamina and an easier time if he learns how to actually pitch. Then people get on him for losing mph on his fastball. Unreal.
agreed 100% real
Look at someone like glavine who doesnt overpower everyone but knows just how to pitch..better example moyer on the phills. Im sure santana can muster a 95 mph heater but if you can get the hitter out w/o having to expense that energy and stress on your arm..whats the point. Santana is a pitcher and knows how to pitch(we saw this last night as he carved hitters left and right).
the number one reason why pedro isnt pedro anymore is because he cant throw 95+ anymore. PERIOD.
so if tim tincecum can’t thrown 95+ anymore, and starts throwing 90-91, you think he’ll be the same pitcher? he might still be very effective, but he won’t be the same ace that he is right now.
maddux and glavine are two SMALL statistical examples out a large sample of pitchers who have come in and out of the game. and guess what? neither has posted a sub 3 ERA in a long time.
its true, you shouldn’t have to expend energy just to throw 95 mph. That’s why GM’s always worry about little guys who will wear out. its GENERALLY not as tough for a guy who is 6′5, 240 to throw at that pace consistently without messing up his arm. this is why i am a little worried about santana. he is not a big guy. it doesnt matter if he knows how to pitch, thats nonsense, you have to have good stuff. pedro still knows how to pitch, he just doesnt have the stuff anymore, namely, his fastball.
i can see santana sometimes shies away from truyl challenging hitters. sometimes he gives up walks in situations because he was too afraid to just dial it up and let a fastball go, and instead tried to get too cute and paint a corner, and missed badly.
whatever…as of now, hes fine…im worried about 3 yrs from now….he’ll stil be effective, im not saying he wont, but i really doubt he will win a cy young, or post a sub 3 era.
just look at his strikeout ratios. they are DOWN. and his whip hasn’t really gotten better even though he switched to an easier league. there’s some telltale signs creeping up about santana. i hope i’m wrong.
No. It’s the results that matter. Not the velocity.
Johan will almost likely not be as good a pitcher at the very end of his contract as he is now. Because almost all players get worse as they get older. That’s the calculated risk they took when they sign him and they did so with that knowledge. You still take the risk because 1) He’s one of the best, if not the best, starters in the game and 2) Even if he’s a lesser pitcher at the end of his contract, he should still be an effective starter.
Thanks Dirty and Heilman (never thought I would say that this year with their years :) ) I just don’t get this obessession with speed. It’s like well Howard’s HR are only going 400 feet instead of 450. That’s a troubling stat? Results are the ONLY thing that matters. True if you are a guy like Benitez or Gagne that does not know how to pitch and just slings the ball a loss of velocity means end of the career. Speed bails out pitchers who don’t know how to pitch to begin with. Why would we want Santana who is signed for 7 years to throw out his arm in the first season trying to hit 95 for NOTHING?
his strikeouts are down, WHIP is up
can you explain why?
I can venture a guess. I think it’s strategic. I think if you get batters to hit the balls to people instead of striking out, you throw fewer pitches and can go deeper into games.
Strikeouts are dramatic and fun, but as an indicator of a pitcher’s effectiveness, they are overrated.
then why would his WHIP be up?
do you really believe what you are saying?
there’s a PRETTY STRONG correlation between K/IP and how effective a pitcher is through his career.
lets look at pedro. his K/IP was high when he most effective. the ratio down when he became less effective.
your “guess” doesn’t make much sense to me.
#1, I do believe in what I’m saying, and thank you for asking.,
#2, I think there would naturally be an inverse correlation between K (or K/IP) and WHIP. If you’re trying to get people to hit the ball on the ground rather than strike them out, you do run the risk that they will hit the ball on the ground somewhere where nobody is fielding. Ergo, more hits against you, which means a higher WHIP.
The trick here is to have the confidence to pitch this way, but have the ability to shift to a more aggressive style of pitching when necessary. So you try to get people to hit ground balls, maybe even double plays, but if they get into scoring position, THEN you switch into power pitcher mode and strike them out. This means your WHIP goes up, marginally, but your ERA stays low.
And, by the way, I’m not making this stuff up. After one of the CGs Johan pitched this year, Ron Darling (who knows more about pitching than you or I put together, I would think) specifically pointed out that Santana’s strategy during the game was to throw a lot of strikes and keep them low in the strike zone, thus inducing players to hit a lot of ground balls and limiting his pitch count. Darling acknowledged that Johan’s strikeouts were low that game (and they were), but pointed out that outs are outs, and that Johan had the intelligence to know that and plan accordingly.
Oh, and Pedro is a different pitcher. Or was. Actually, to the extent that he’s been successful this year, it’s been through smart pitching, not hard pitching. It’s possible Pedro will continue to be effective if he makes this transition. But even if he doesn’t, that doesn’t mean that decreased K/IP means end of career for all pitchers. It just means that for pitchers whose game depends on striking people out. Not all do.
Sorry, let me add one more thing here. When I said “Strikeouts are dramatic and fun, but as an indicator of a pitcher’s effectiveness, they are overrated,” I was exaggerating my point slightly. Of course strikeouts are an indicator of a pitcher’s effectiveness. My point is that they are not the sole indicator. You have to take all the numbers together.
And, frankly, as imperfect a stat as it is, if I had to pick one number to use as an overall evaluation of a pitcher, I would still choose ERA. Because ultimately, a pitcher’s job is to keep the other guys from scoring. Period. How you achieve that is secondary.
to his credit…not really disagreeing with you though…but he expected Duaner to come back to 2006 form…improvement from joe smith (i think we have seen that) and more consistency from pedro and show (ehh not so much)…the options weren’t really out there in terms of proven arms…its more viable to bring in journeymen in ST let them fight for a job. bullpens usually are crapshoots every year. That said, Wagner going down has not helped us (you can argue that, but he is our best reliever)
One of the main issues last year in regard to the bullpen was overuse. They were spent by the end of the year due to the inability of the starters to go longer. This year the mets have 11 arms in the bullpen to ensure this mistake does not happen again. Omar is not attacking one of the main problems of the team….Who brought in ayala when billy wagner got hurt….The same ayala who has saved games for us ALREADY..yea omars a jerk…
Oh man, that is pure BS.
For example, Mahay was available this past winter, and I could probably come up with more.
Bullpens are NOT a crapshoot every year — or the degree to which they are crapshoots varies IMMENSELY.
If you go in with that false attitude and like to shop on the scrapheap, which Omar loves to do, then you are bound to come up with the crappy bullpens the Mets have had this year and last.
It’s on Omar.
You know what? The Mets are 4th in the NL in IPs for their starters.
It’s not true that the Mets’ starters have an inability to go long, putting undue stress on the bullpen and that’s why they are crappy.
The Mets bullpen is simply crappy.
is that stat from this year..or last because i was refering to the sp not being able to go long LAST year and thus the bullpen was spent.
Sorry, dirty, I thought you were talking about this year.
But even last year, they were 7th in the NL in IPs for their starters, ahead of Philadelphia and just 3 innings shy of the Rockies. And both those teams made the playoffs last year. So, yes, while length was an issue, it was no more an issue for them than for other teams, and the quality of the bullpen was just as much as issue.
Mota, Show and Sele killed the bullpen last year.
Yea those guys blew but omar has fixed that problem by getting rid of mota and jorge sosa and sele. Thing is the mets were reluctant to understand they have a bunch of specialists in their pen. Once they come to terms with that, they will make a better stance imo. You got a few pitchers that can deal to both (stokes,duaner,ayala) the rest (feliciano,show,smith) are specialists..i left out heilman because he is just plain HORRIBLE this year.
Also, last year, 9 other NL teams logged more innings with their bullpens. So the Mets bullpen was actually a little below average last year in innings pitched.
Sure, if the starters went longer that could have covered up deficiencies in the bullpen. But I think the wise thing to do is just put together a pen with a little more thought behind it.
For this year, Omar kept an incompetent Show and a miscast and unhappy Heilman in the pen. And banking on someone coming off a year of rehab as he did with Sanchez was a big mistake. Plus, signs of Wagner breaking/wearing down due to age have been apparent for a couple of years.
When you invest as much as the Mets did with the rotation, you better protect that investment by putting together a solid pen. Last night they were saying Johan had 7 of his leads blown by the pen this year. In 2007 with the Twins, ZERO of his leads were blown. That tells you a lot about how crappy the Mets pen has been.
I know very little about Mahay, but since you’re citing him as an example of a sure thing that Omar missed, I looked up his stats. I don’t see a sure thing. I see a guy with a 2.8 ERA this year, a 2.7 ERA the previous year, and 4.0 and 6.8 in the two previous years. I see a guy with 46 strikeouts in 63 inning pitched this year, but also 27 walks, one hit batter, and 5 home runs given up. And he’s 37. How is he not a crapshoot? He’s been pretty good, not stellar, for two of the last four years, and pretty bad for the other two. He looks to me to be a thoroughly average relief pitcher.
People want to fault Omar for not pulling a rabbit out of his hat. It’s ridiculous. There just isn’t that much solid, proven, reliable talent available. And even if it were, the Mets do not have unlimited resources with which to acquire them.
The man got us arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball last year, and that acquisition has saved this team’s bacon on more than one occasion. What do you want out of the guy? Is one miracle a year not enough for you?