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John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle looks at the impending free agency of C.C. Sabathia and provides odds for several teams interested in landing the left-hander.
Shea lists the Dodgers as the favorite (5-to-2), noting Sabathia desire to play on the West Coast, while giving the Mets and Yankees 4-to-1 odds to acquire Sabathia.
Last week, Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com gave the Mets a 6-to-1 chance of signing Sabathia, behind the Yankees and Angels.
Sabathia was 17-10 with a 2.70 ERA over 253.0 IP in 35 starts for the Brewers and Indians this season.
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here is what i hope omar does this offseason:
Send Fernando Martinez, Aaron Heilman, and Ramon Castro to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is a 26 year old cleanup hitter who hit over .300 on the road last year and plays Gold Glove defense. The Padres want to cut payroll, add a back up catcher and bullpen arm, so this package would make sense for them.
Trade Carlos Delgado, Scott Schoenweis and cash to the Jays for B.J. Ryan. K-Rod will demand to large a commitment and it looks like the Jays would like the move Ryan’s contract. Delgado gives them a clean up hitter.
Complete the already talked about Luis Castillo for Eric Byrnes swap. Unwanted for unwanted, but Byrnes would be a nice bat to spell Murphy or Church in the corners agaisnt lefties.
Sign C.C. Sabathia, Orlando Hudson, Dan Wheeler, Darren Oliver, Felipe Lopez, and Fernando Tatis. Sabathia is worth the risk. No staff in baseball could match Johan-C.C.-Pelfrey-Maine. Hudson is a perfect fit at 2B. Wheeler has been a steady set-up man and can even close if need be. Oliver would give us a third lefty arm in the pen behind Ryan and Feliciano. Lopez is a decent all-around player who can back up the middle infielders and Tatis definitely earned a spot on the 2009 roster.
2009 Mets:
SS - Jose Reyes-S
LF - Dan Murphy-L
3B - David Wright-R
1B - Adrian Gonzalez-L
CF - Carlos Beltran-S
RF - Ryan Church-L
2B - Orlando Hudson-S
C - Brian Schneider-L/Robinson Cancel-R
1B/LF/RF - Eric Byrnes-R
LF/CF/RF - Endy Chavez-L
1B/3B/LF/RF - Fernando Tatis-R
2B/SS/3B - Felipe Lopez-S
Johan Santana-L
C.C. Sabathia-L
John Maine-R
Mike Pelfrey-R
John Neise-L
B.J. Ryan-L
Dan Wheeler-R
Pedro Feliciano-L
Joe Smith-R
Darren Oliver-L
Luis Ayala-R/ Brian Stokes-R
Robert Parnell-R
I thought this was almost realistic until the part about signing CC Sabathia. I don’t see that happening a year after we gave the money to Johan. I would like to see Darren Oliver back and I like the idea of trading Delgado because we really don’t know if he will get off to a slow start and people will be calling for his head again.
People may think we are both crazy but this is one of the better ideas that I have heard (read).
I know C.C. is wishful thinking, but even if they sign Lowe instead, it will still make for a strong starting staff.
I hope they sign Lowe
Or AJ Burnett, who is 4 years younger than Lowe.
Burnett is a dog and will cost way more than Lowe.
Well, Burnett is younger, but he also seems to be very injury prone. I know that burnett will be seeking something like a 5 year, 80 million dollar contract. But I haven’t heard anything about what lowe might command on the free market…anyone?
I’d give lowe a 4 year 60 million deal, but thats just me…
id try to go a year less…i would like niese to eventually take over that spot in the rotation or someone from the farm if niese is traded.
you can almost justify C.C.’s money as the savings from Ollie, Pedro and El Duque at least in the short term
That catching platoon is really weak.
it is, but there is not much out there.
Also, 4 Type-A free agents you simply can not do. I think the max is 3.
Wheeler and Oliver are Type-A?
Yep. They’re both barely Type A and I think Wheeler isn’t due to hit free agency yet.
The Padres would want more than that for Adrian Gonzalez.
Maybe, but who thought we’d snag Johan for Carlos Gomez and Co.?
It’s a different scenario. Gonzalez is under team control through 2011 (he signed a contract extension though 2010 and they have a team option for 2011). Santana was going to be a free agent.
Plus Santana had the no trade clause. There were really only 3-4 teams that could afford Santana. Of out of that only 2 who made serious offers, us and the Rangers. If not for his no trade clause he might be a Ranger now.
Reality called….
and they had to leave a vm
Nice job having a complete plan. Not sure if its the most possible or best solution but you’ve managed to realistically put together a full team.
My main concern would be the lack of depth at SP. Niese as the 5th starter doesnt bother me, but there is nothing behind him.
Anyone can have a complete plan if you don’t live in reality…
Obviously all the signings are POSSIBLE (except the Type A stufF) but the trade for AGon is totally ridiculous….he is easily the best hitter the padres have and I can be proven wrong, but I’ve heard the POSSIBILITY of trading Peavy, but not adrian
there has been alot worse scenerios put out there by fans and this one was pretty fair (not great and a bit off). give the guy some credit for keeping it close to the relam of maybes and could bes.
peavy for fmart and niese
Why would the Padres take that package for Gonzales? You’re going to throw in a lot more prospects.
felipe lopez was cut by the nationals, no thanks.
Agreed…Gonzales isn’t going anywhere. He’s signed through 2010 with a reasonable contract, with a club option for 2011. Even if they were inclined to trade him, he would cost you your best pitching prospect plus several others…we’re talking about a guy who’s 26 years old and one of the best young hitters in the league…you can’t compare his situation to Santana’s, who was in the last year of a contract with a team that had zero chance of resigning him…
Adrian Gonzalez would be an excellent aquisition however we don’t need another lefty that can’t hit lefties we need a right handed bat somone that can mash, oh i don’t know ….. someone that is a freakin RBI machine, oh i don’t know ? Someone who is only now begining to open the eyes of the lords of baseball to the fact that he may very well be THE GREATEST RIGHT HANDED HITTER TO EVER PLAY THE GAME, oh i don’t know… Someone that can take us DEEP INTO OCT FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 YRS. OK, OK I WANT MANNY RAMIREZ IN A MET UNIFORM IN LF ON OPENING DAY AT CITI FIELD.
The team that could really benefit from Sabathia the most is the Angels. They need that type of pitcher to put them over the top. And they will have money to spend with Vlad and K-Rod coming off the books.
Don’t they have an option on Vlad?
yep…its going to be interesting with the angels as they have ALOT of OF options. Vlads option will be expensive tho
Yes I think so.
I could be wrong, but it seems to me that letting Vlad go is the easiest way for them to unclog the OF and minor/bench situation with Juan Rivera, Morales, etc.
And that they would prefer to retain Texiera over Vlad.
And thier pen wont miss K-Rod with Shields and Aradondo.
Odds of making the playoffs again w/ Wright and Reyes as the core: 0-1
Gimme a team full of Victornos, you can have your precious Wrights and Reyes. Guarantee the team of Victorinos whips you every time. (Oh wait, they already have 2x now)
Maybe you should change your name to “Phurioso” since you’re obviously a Phillies fan.
Also, your precious Victorino is hitting about .150 in this series.
I’m shocked to see that he hasn’t “accidently” taken out an opposing player yet. Well he almost did with Lowe.
a team of victorinos…..
more like the best bullpen in the NL(79-0 after leading in the 7th(or 8th)) and the most hr in the NL are a good start. They had the better team this year.
Stop scapegoating the pen.
Because despite that lousy pen, this team was in position to make the playoffs WITH 17 days to go, with 7 days to go, with 3 days to go, with 1 day to go.
And the pen by and large didn’t ruin them the final homestand.
The OFFENSE flat out let them down 4 of the last 5 games.
From stranding Murphy, to scoring 5 runs in final 3 days, the pen didn’t throw a playoff slot away.
Again:
DESPITE THE PEN, THEY WERE IN POSITION TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS IN THE FINAL DAYS, AND THE OFFENSE FAILED TO SHOW UP WHEN IT COUNTED
and so did the pen…they both are culprits and you cant dismiss that furioso. Yes the offense had its let downs but so did the pen. Our only strong point was our sp. Had lidge not been perfect you can make the argument that we could have taken the division. Had the brewers not gotten cc we could have gotten the wc. Bottom line yes the offense could have won some of those games down the stretch but so could the pen.
Nope, the offense is the main culprit.
When the team was in a position to make the playoffs, the offense was the one that exited stage left.
Sanchez… If we played in a bandbox like the Citizens Bank arena,, we could lead the league in HR too
They hit 25 more home runs on the road too.
Laugh of the day - and you’re comments are always good for that - if nothing else. Furioso.
Quick poll: who would rather see the flying hawaiin on this team rather than Reyes and/or Wright?
*your
Are you kidding me furioso? Philly fans shouldnt be on “METS”blog.com btw.
I never knew Mike Francesa came to this site. Small world, I guess.
a team of victorinos? well Im going to go out on a limb here and say there has never been a playoff team in the modern era with no player batting 300 or higher, AND no player with 20 HRs or more. please go back to beerleaguer.com.
Furioso–You are forgetting that even a team of Victorinos would achieve jack-sh*t without the core of Howard and Utley.
Come on man, you can do better than this, you really can.
Wright and Reyes will lead us to a title, with Johan and the correct extra pieces.
No, they won’t.
wright and reyes are the least of the Mets problems.
Except in Sept.
Im sure ill be missing alot of points but heres what i think the mets should do not sure if it could be done so let me know what you guys think
Mets trade Beltran to yankees for talked about trade cano, kennedy, veras, player to be ann
Mets trade with boston for coco crisp , Mets get good solid defensive player boston finally makes room for jocoby i donno what it would take to get done maybe heilman , and then some
Mets trade for peavy give up f-mart and kennedy and a throw in
Mets trade delgado and shoe to jays for ryan and b level prospect
Mets sign manny to make up for delgado loss
Mets sign fuentees
also sign baldelli- high risk high reward
09 line up
c- schnider
1b-murphy
2b-cano
3b-wright
ss-reyes
lf-manny
cf-coco
rf-church
“Mets trade Beltran to yankees for talked about trade cano, kennedy, veras, player to be ann”
Unless your “player to be ann” is Joba Chamberlain, that trade is garbage.
Cano is just such a dog. I cant’ see him contributing to a winning team.
dude.. this is the most laughable scenario, just with the talk about trading Beltran to the yanks for that crap…
Well, when the rumor was out there for Angel Pagan for Coco Crisp people here almost burned the building down………
Who would we give up for the legendary Coco…
The yankee trade is a bad trade, cano and kennedy given in return for beltran isnt worth it at all
IMO, if you’re going to be unrealistic with trades/signings you should at least make the team better.
I like that thinking Gina.
Castillo and Muniz for Pujols. Then trade Delgado for Mariano Rivera. And Brian Schneider and Aaron Heilman for Joe Mauer.
Noooooooooo. Noooo. F***ing. Waaaaaay.
this might be the worst idea ever put out on Mets Blog.
The only way I’d deal Beltran is for a Matt Kemp-Chad Billingsley-Jonathan Broxton type package and I don’t see that happening.
bronxton is a beast i would love to have a guy like that….too bad its not happening…
Can’t we trade Delgado, Heilman, and Castro for Pujols and then deal Murphy, Shoenweis, and $5,000,000.00 for Peavy?
THEN we sign CC Sabathia.
ta dow! FANTASY GM!
more like playstation gm
what kind of fantasy league do you play in? i hope that trade would never go through
my only reasoning for trading beltran is the mets have so many holes leftfield, starting pitching, secound base, and then pen, is that we dont have the farm system and we are not willing to be the yankees with a 250 mill payroll to realisticly fill all of our holes i think we need to trade beltran in order to get enough prospects to fill all of our needs and i would never trade wright and reyes , beltran is a great player that will get great value in prospects hes also very expensive and will clear up alot of payroll maybe the yankee trade is a lil low ball for us in return but getting cano, joba, kenndy , hughs for beltran is just unrealistic i think cano, kennedy , veras another good arm and maybe an outfield prospect is a good return for the mets in our need to replenish the farm to make trades
If you want to trade Beltran fine, but not to the Yankees for a bunch of their crap.
Beltran to the Giants for Cain/Rowand
Beltran to the Dodgers for Broxton/Kemp
i don’t think either of those deals is enough for Beltran and i’m not a Beltran fan
Cain and Broxton and Kemp all have a lot of value as young players under team control.
You could ask for a third player back as well (maybe a minor league guy or a reliever, depending on the salary you are paying).
IMO something like that would make sense if they’re plan is to get younger and sacrifice next year to improve the team for 2010. But I still don’t think Kennedy & Cano and Veras is nearly enough to replace Beltran. Especially since we would then have a gaping hole in cf.
I don’t think you understand the fact that outside of the Yankees camp, Cano has almost no value and Kennedy is, what, a 4th/5th pitcher at best?
re first post … why is it unrealistic to sign CC year after Santana? This team should have no problem going to 150M payroll with revenue they will be generating, and the fans deserve that with the huge ticket prices next year
Because being able to afford it and choosing to take on the extra cost are two different things. They may be able to afford it but it’s probably unrealistic to expect them to do it.
It would be great to sign Sabathia but guys be realistic, his contract is gonna be either around the same as johan’s or higher. I dont see the mets signing him at all, way to much money to sign pitchers with the highest paid contracts for pitchers, 2 years in a row. The money that we would give to C.C. would be better used to fill in some of the holes we have such as a 2nd baseman, bullpen, left field, and cheaper starting pitchers
‘The money that we would give to C.C. would be better used to fill in some of the holes we have such as a 2nd baseman, bullpen, left field, and cheaper starting pitchers’
–Agreed.
But what an awesome rotation that would be for your 1-2.
Agreed with the last line here especially, and 1-2 punches like that can win titles…Seaver/Koosman, Johnson/Schilling, Schilling/Pedro, etc….
Plus, the amount of innings a 1-2 of Johan and CC would eat instantly makes the bullpen–regardless of who it consists of–much better, as they will have far fewer inning to pitch and will not be warmed up every single day like in Aug/Sept this year.
unrealistic giants have no need for beltran since they have rowand there looking to upgrade offense mostly at first and they would never take on beltrans contract since there going to make a play for tex and cc
y would the dodgers take on another outfielder and give up there 2 biggest prospects if they trade kemp it will be for a cano package to the yankees bc jeff kent is old and a cancer
make a deal fo beltran that makes sence for both teams fill needs and holes yankees need centerfielder mets need 2nd and arms, rockies love beltran, padres looking to slash payroll and get prospects
anyone could say i want albert p to cardinals for delgado and a pitcher but it wont happen and dosent make sence find a trade that makes sence for both teams
Vinny, its not a good trade for the mets at all. Hudson would be so much better then cano for one, i dont even think cano is that good to begin with. and the offer of kennedy and some of their bullpen arms isnt really a good return either (we need bullpen pitchers but im sure we could find better options elsewhere). that trades not gonna happen if omar is smart
Then you don’t make the trade. You don’t just send Beltran away for nothing. But if you are going to trade him those are the kinds of deals it should be done in. A trade where you actually get value back.
And the Giants might do a trade like that. They would get out from under Rowand’s salary, and they’d get a stronger offensive player. They are also rumored to be willing to trade Cain, as he’s due for arbitration increase.
As for the Dodgers, who knows if they’d do that. But if they don’t sign Manny and they miss out on CC they may want to make a splash.
I don’t see the point for the Giants. They don’t get much salary relief for Rowand with Beltran. Most likely they would trade him for prospects not for Beltran. And Cain would be much more valuable by himself.
That’s true ‘86. If you really wanted to get those two guys back you’d probably have to include a little more.
But my point is that if you want to trade Beltran you have to get something back. Not just trade him for crap like that stupid Yankees deal they keep talking about.
cano is TERRIBLE and the exact opposite type player the Mets need. did you watch the Mets at all?
What’s the point in even placing odds on where a player is going to end up? Do people actually bet on this stuff?
I’m jumping in here because this is a major pet peeve of mine. Odds are a useful way to do projections like this one and I suppose they’re sort of fun for readers and writers alike, but it seems like no one ever gets them right.
If there are 5:2 odds that Sabathia signs with the Dodgers, that’s saying there’s a 2 in 7 chance, or 28%. The percentages should end up at 100% or slightly below (factoring in the small chance that he could sign nowhere), but add them up and they almost always go well over 100%. Shea’s are at 140% and Rosenthal’s are 115%.
Bookies use “overrounds” and set odds that add up to more than 100% to ensure profit, but don’t accurately show the probability. But unless these guys are running side businesses, I’m pretty sure the math is off.
Yes, I’m a tremendous nerd. Sorry.
hey……berg takin the ball….
I actually like the idea of CC over Krod, Manny or Hudson. This is a guy who can impact the entire team. Sign CC, Garland and Cruz and you have fixed many of the weaknesses on the team. You can always pick up a cheap 2nd baseman if Murphy can’t play there. The bullpen can be remade through smaller trades.
Johan
CC
Pelfrey
Maine
Garland
That’s a young solid rotation,
BP
Ryan, Street or Sherril
Cruz
Stokes
Ayala
Tallat
Oliver
Sanchez
If our offense is the problem after 2009 then you can fix it at the trade deadline or in the offseason.
arent you at least a bit concerned with the abuse milwake put on cc’s arm real….I mean we are going to invest alot of money in this guy and sooner or later i just feel the team that takes cc will have to pay for what milwake has done
Not really. CC does not seem to labor at all with his motion. Pitchers have pitched MANY more innings than him. The 5 man rotation is not even THAT old. I think he will be fine.
umm sorry to correct you real but according to espn cc has the most ip in the mlb at 253.0..next is roy holliday at 246.0
Did not mean this season Dirty.
ok this is the 3rd time im posting this as my previous 2 have been gobbled up(have not recieved the “blacklisted” words for the day) so to sum up
-cc was the leader in ip last year as well
-i still believe whoever picks up cc will have to deal with maybe a potential arm problem in the future
-cc is arodesque in that he helps the team in reg season but is awful in the post season
-i dont think its a good invesment for a long term deal that most likely he is seeking and the $$ can tie us up from getting other pieces to fill holes…
I don’t think he’s arodesque, I think when you put that many innings on a pitchers arm, even one as physically durable as CC, he’s going to fall apart at the end of the year. CC had what 3 starts in like 12 days before the NLDS? How many pitchers could come in after that, plus the 110 or so innings he’d already racked up in like 2.5 months with the Brewers and not get lit up.
hey by no mean am i taking anything away from the guy..what he did was nothing short of incredible..that being said my main point is just that when you put that many innings on a pitchers arm its going to take its toll eventually. in 2007 he had 13 less ip than this year. in 3gms starting in 2007 he has a 8.80 era. IN 2008 after as many innings as he pitched i guess his arm fell off after 3.2 innings(postseason) had a 12.27 era with 6er. In total cc as a 7.92 era in 5 games in the post season. My point is just that i feel with a long term investment we would be potentially taking on an injury risk waiting to happen. Thats my opinion again i could be totally wrong about that.
Sanchez has a point, Sabathia was used alot. not only the stretch of 3 or 4 games in a row with only 3 days rest, but he pitched alot of innings and alot of complete games, let alone who knows how many pitches he threw each complete game. so far in his career he has been very durable but he might be due to get hurt and he isnt getting younger so age wont help.
he is still very young
Further with this you COULD scrap the Garland part and probably be able to afford Hudson because of it. Make Niese the 5th starter and see how it goes. You could always trade Evans and Carp for a #5 if it does not work out.
CC for Zito numbers, I don’t think he will get Johan numbers but lets say 20.
Pickup Delgado’s option 12 million
Hudson for 10 million.
We had about 42 million to spen.
For the pen stretch that salary to sign Cruz and Oliver (5-8 million) then do the rest by trade.
id love to quick fix the mets and sign k-rod and cc and o dog but u need to realize we have tons of holes and signing these type A free agents makes our farm system even weeker then it already is bc were giving up our future number 1 draft picks i urge all of u to think about now and the future
I believe we all are vin think about it..
our rotation is pretty young and wont need replacements after 09.
Hopefully omar can set our bullpen up so we wont have to do much to it after 09.
3b/ss/cf/rf/c/2b(either murph/castillo/odog) should be solid for a few years
so yea right now we are signing alot of type a FA, but it is so we wont have to deal with many holes come 2010
The mets should def sign either manny or CC…i dont think they will end up signing a closer..they will trade for some1 like ryan, putz, soria…etc..
defenitaly do the byrnes for castillo trade…that should be done the first day after the playoffs.
id rather see manny here….has anyone seen him in the playoffs??
reyes
beltran
manny
delgado
wright
murphy 2nd
byrnes
schnieder
byrnes and castillo is a bit onesided str8 up…we would have to include more + pay the majority of castillos contract…
i dont think we would have to add another in there…i think if we pay some of castillos contract then we are good
just seems a bit onesided imo…i hope your right but i guess we will have to w8 and see.
what would it cost to get putz???
fmart, church, parell/niese? would that do it??
i think putz would be the perfect closer for the mets..
giving up WAY too much there
really?? then fmart and church would do it??
i would not give up any of those guys for JJ Putz, sorry.
it’s hard to believe the mets have the same odds as the yankees
i’d love to have sabathia though. takes up lots of quality innings to rest that ‘pen
The Mets need a bullpen and some big bats. The rotation, for the most part, was one of the best in the leagues. They’re going to have a lot of money coming off the books in Pedro and Alou alone. Sign Manny Ramirez to a 3 year deal with a mutual option. Sign Orlando Hudson to a 4/5 year deal. Trade F-Mart, Evans, and Parnell (or who ever else) to A’s for Huston Street. Sign Guardado, Farnsworth, and Tatis. Trade/Release Castillo, Sanchez, Show, Heilman, and Feliciano. Sign Garcia (low risk).
Lineup
1. Reyes SS (S)
2. Hudson 2B (S)
3. Wright 3B (R)
4. Ramirez LF (R)
5. Delgado 1B (L)
6. Beltran CF (S)
7. Church RF (L)
8. Schneider/ Castro C (L,R)
Rotation
1. Santana LHP
2. Pelfrey RHP
3. Maine RHP
4. Garcia RHP
5. Niese LHP
Bullpen
Closer- Street
Set-up- Ayala
Farnsworth
Rincon
Stokes
Guardado
Smith
Bench
Murphy
Tatis
Castro
Chavez
Reyes
just to get a sence of beltrans old trade value,
trade deadline between astros and royals
Astros get beltran
Royals recieve Dotel and john buck
given it was getting beltran only for the playoff push
royals got a good closer at the time and catcher of future
now beltran is locked up for a few years, has a no trade clause, and is expensive
Actually, this is how the Beltran trade went down:
A’s got: Octavio Dotel (Astros)
Royals got: Mark Teahen (A’s), Mike Wood (A’s), John Buck (Astros), and cash (Astros)
Astros got: Carlos Beltran (Royals)
SENSE……CENTS…..SCENTS…..but not sence. Thank you.
Do not re-sign Pedro…..I’d like to see Omar walk away from him or convince him to retire….Omar may sign him, hopefully no more than 4 years….