Comments on: Q&A: MetsBlog and Minaya on Luis Castillo http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/ MetsBlog.com features the latest Mets rumors, player movement, and news circulating around the Internet, as well as Mets related insights and opinions by Matthew Cerrone and his team of guest bloggers. Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:10:45 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: MetsyMad22 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372564 MetsyMad22 Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:50:12 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372564 i'd imagine the most enviable slot to hit in any order of the lineup is the 2 hole. when you factor in jose reyes being on base, and wright beltran and delgado behind you, it's even more so on the Mets. therefore, you need a guy who can drive the ball, b/c they get nothing but nice fastballs. castillo is a WASTE in that spot, especially for us. i feel the reason castillo got 4 years is b/c of Johan. once they realized that getting johan was a real possibility, they locked up his boy to show how they take care of guys very nicely financially, which led him to force the twins hand. i’d imagine the most enviable slot to hit in any order of the lineup is the 2 hole. when you factor in jose reyes being on base, and wright beltran and delgado behind you, it’s even more so on the Mets.

therefore, you need a guy who can drive the ball, b/c they get nothing but nice fastballs. castillo is a WASTE in that spot, especially for us.

i feel the reason castillo got 4 years is b/c of Johan. once they realized that getting johan was a real possibility, they locked up his boy to show how they take care of guys very nicely financially, which led him to force the twins hand.

]]> By: GregB http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372549 GregB Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:39:52 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372549 Other than the fake bunt, Castillo only has the one move: pitching wedge to shallow left field. As you pointed out, he just doesn't have enough tools at the plate. Other than the fake bunt, Castillo only has the one move: pitching wedge to shallow left field. As you pointed out, he just doesn’t have enough tools at the plate.

]]> By: MetsyMad22 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372546 MetsyMad22 Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:38:43 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372546 great post sabe. great post sabe.

]]> By: MetsyMad22 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372539 MetsyMad22 Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:32:30 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372539 umm please just give it up with castillo. he is not going to be back, the fans HATE him, he is a cancer, and the team loses when he is around. why do you cream your jeans for this guy??? umm please just give it up with castillo. he is not going to be back, the fans HATE him, he is a cancer, and the team loses when he is around. why do you cream your jeans for this guy???

]]> By: Sabe Doran http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372528 Sabe Doran Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:23:16 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372528 There are a few reasons that Castillo's case is different from Delgado's, but I should also point out, what Delgado did this year, at his age, was fairly unprecedented. Not completely, but for and one or two dimensional player in general, its fairly uncommon to see them resurrect their careers so late after such an extended slump. It speaks to just how good Delgado has been. He was able to recover from an injury plagued 2007 season followed by a broken hand to get his stroke back and become one of the big offensive forces in the NL at age 36. The first thing we need to establish here is that Delgado and Castillo were just on different levels. Delgado has been an elite-level run producer for the bulk of his career. Castillo had a handful of good years, but was never close to an elite-level player. Castillo's career OPS+ is 93. He's had an OPS+ over 100 three times in his career, and it was all the way down at 79 this last year. His career high in RBI is 49 and the last time he swiped more than 25 bags was 2002. Throw in good defense up the middle, and you have a pretty average looking career. The big difference here though is just that Castillo and Delgado are completely different types of players. Different skills erode differently. Plate Discipline, as a more intellectual skill, tends to remain fairly well intact as players get older. This skill, Castillo still demonstrated very well for most of the year (his K/BB was 35/50 and he still had his OBP up around .350 despite a .250 BA). However, more athletically based skills often erode much more quickly, such as footspeed, agility, and batspeed. The first two were trademarks of Luis's career up until 2008. But this year he was average-at best in all those categories. Having a guy who gets by mostly on good plate discipline is okay, but with a .308 SLG (.060 ISO), he'd better be a career Gold-Glover or a .400 OBP. Even with a rebound, its hard to see Castillo doing any better than .280 / .370 / .350 with average defense and 25 SBs. That would be tolerable, but at the same time unlikely, he's just about as likely to continue declining and hit .220 / .330 / .270. I mean, his swing was an absolute disaster. Watching him, I'd joke with my dad that I've seen Ollie Perez take prettier cuts than Luis. And it seemed like he could never get the ball on the ground to the right side (say if, some speedy leadoff hitting shorstop happened to be at second with none out). All he could do in the lefty box was slap the ball to the left side or pop it up, and from the right all he could do was pull the ball. Runner on third and less than two outs wasn't even a good RBI situation for him because outfields play him so shallow (and that's something that even with a bounceback, likely won't change). When the Mets signed Castillo, this was the kind of year you'd hope he'd be having in the third or fourth year of the deal. The fact that it was his first is very discouraging. He doesn't have the situational skills to hit 2nd anymore, and doesn't provide enough offense, speed, or defense to justify batting him low in the order, nor does he have the versatility to ride the pine. He's a babysitter on a veteran team. There are a few reasons that Castillo’s case is different from Delgado’s, but I should also point out, what Delgado did this year, at his age, was fairly unprecedented. Not completely, but for and one or two dimensional player in general, its fairly uncommon to see them resurrect their careers so late after such an extended slump. It speaks to just how good Delgado has been. He was able to recover from an injury plagued 2007 season followed by a broken hand to get his stroke back and become one of the big offensive forces in the NL at age 36.

The first thing we need to establish here is that Delgado and Castillo were just on different levels. Delgado has been an elite-level run producer for the bulk of his career. Castillo had a handful of good years, but was never close to an elite-level player. Castillo’s career OPS+ is 93. He’s had an OPS+ over 100 three times in his career, and it was all the way down at 79 this last year. His career high in RBI is 49 and the last time he swiped more than 25 bags was 2002. Throw in good defense up the middle, and you have a pretty average looking career.

The big difference here though is just that Castillo and Delgado are completely different types of players. Different skills erode differently. Plate Discipline, as a more intellectual skill, tends to remain fairly well intact as players get older. This skill, Castillo still demonstrated very well for most of the year (his K/BB was 35/50 and he still had his OBP up around .350 despite a .250 BA). However, more athletically based skills often erode much more quickly, such as footspeed, agility, and batspeed. The first two were trademarks of Luis’s career up until 2008. But this year he was average-at best in all those categories. Having a guy who gets by mostly on good plate discipline is okay, but with a .308 SLG (.060 ISO), he’d better be a career Gold-Glover or a .400 OBP. Even with a rebound, its hard to see Castillo doing any better than .280 / .370 / .350 with average defense and 25 SBs. That would be tolerable, but at the same time unlikely, he’s just about as likely to continue declining and hit .220 / .330 / .270. I mean, his swing was an absolute disaster. Watching him, I’d joke with my dad that I’ve seen Ollie Perez take prettier cuts than Luis. And it seemed like he could never get the ball on the ground to the right side (say if, some speedy leadoff hitting shorstop happened to be at second with none out). All he could do in the lefty box was slap the ball to the left side or pop it up, and from the right all he could do was pull the ball. Runner on third and less than two outs wasn’t even a good RBI situation for him because outfields play him so shallow (and that’s something that even with a bounceback, likely won’t change).

When the Mets signed Castillo, this was the kind of year you’d hope he’d be having in the third or fourth year of the deal. The fact that it was his first is very discouraging. He doesn’t have the situational skills to hit 2nd anymore, and doesn’t provide enough offense, speed, or defense to justify batting him low in the order, nor does he have the versatility to ride the pine. He’s a babysitter on a veteran team.

]]> By: Nails http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372524 Nails Wed, 15 Oct 2008 18:15:56 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372524 The problem with Castillo is that baseball is not a vacuum. Sometimes we need our 2baseman to get a sacrifice fly, which Castillo cannot do. Sometimes we need our 2basebman to get a double, which Castillo cannot do. I'm all for getting guys with a high OBP, but I'd give up 10 -25 points to get someone who can get a ball out of the infield, like a younger, healthier Easley. The problem with Castillo is that baseball is not a vacuum. Sometimes we need our 2baseman to get a sacrifice fly, which Castillo cannot do. Sometimes we need our 2basebman to get a double, which Castillo cannot do.

I’m all for getting guys with a high OBP, but I’d give up 10 -25 points to get someone who can get a ball out of the infield, like a younger, healthier Easley.

]]> By: GregB http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372417 GregB Wed, 15 Oct 2008 16:53:34 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372417 It was a 'speed buy'. Omar gave him the money too fast! It was a ’speed buy’. Omar gave him the money too fast!

]]> By: GregB http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372412 GregB Wed, 15 Oct 2008 16:51:23 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372412 "Going back to that time, though, was there a rush to lock in a second baseman before the Winter Meetings? Or, before other trades were explored? I mean, was there some sort of urgency? I ask, because I think most fans were confused as to why the four years? I know you probably can’t revisit it too much, but was there any kind of feeling that, ‘We’ve got to lock somebody in here?’" Not a great question Matt. You're practically answering it for him and then letting him off the hook with 'I know you probably can't revisit...' before he even answers. How abou asking: "Why did you give Castillo four years?" and let him give the reasons. If he doesn't, then follow up. “Going back to that time, though, was there a rush to lock in a second baseman before the Winter Meetings? Or, before other trades were explored? I mean, was there some sort of urgency? I ask, because I think most fans were confused as to why the four years? I know you probably can’t revisit it too much, but was there any kind of feeling that, ‘We’ve got to lock somebody in here?’”

Not a great question Matt. You’re practically answering it for him and then letting him off the hook with ‘I know you probably can’t revisit…’ before he even answers.

How abou asking: “Why did you give Castillo four years?” and let him give the reasons. If he doesn’t, then follow up.

]]> By: Gina http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372345 Gina Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:57:51 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372345 I'm pretty certain our front office has little to no interest in metrics. I’m pretty certain our front office has little to no interest in metrics.

]]> By: Reyes es el Rey http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/15/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372335 Reyes es el Rey Wed, 15 Oct 2008 15:48:53 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/10/14/qa-metsblog-and-minaya-on-luis-castillo/#comment-372335 Well you could look at the fact that he was 32. I'm guessing if you traced the trajectory of most middle infielders there is a pretty steady decline in their defensive skills in the early 30s. The same is obviously true for base stealers. Or maybe the fact that his knees were obviously bothering him and he was coming off several years on turf. There are ways of projecting beyond just past performance. You think Omar's ever heard of PECOTA? I wonder. Well you could look at the fact that he was 32. I’m guessing if you traced the trajectory of most middle infielders there is a pretty steady decline in their defensive skills in the early 30s. The same is obviously true for base stealers. Or maybe the fact that his knees were obviously bothering him and he was coming off several years on turf. There are ways of projecting beyond just past performance.

You think Omar’s ever heard of PECOTA? I wonder.

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