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Eric Simon at Amazin’ Avenue forwards some projected 2009 offensive stats from The Bill James Handbook.
Among the notable numbers:
David Wright will lead the team in nearly every category including home runs, batting average, OBP, and OPS.
Carlos Delgado will tie David Wright for the team lead in homers with 33.
Nick Evans will have a higher OPS than Jose Reyes but play in a third less games.
…it’s interesting because most of the numbers don’t vary too far from this year…not being very into sabermetrics myself, i’d like to know how they come up with these…
Eric provides post-stat commentary as well including:
“The Mets could do far worse than Fernando Tatis as a righty bat off the bench, Or: Sixteen words I couldn’t have fathomed writing a year ago.”
…the projections have started already…i know some people say these are worthless, but other than the giants, few things keep me going over the winter months so i appreciate them…
They also posted the projections for the Mets pitching staff as well which you can see here.
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And THAT is why ladies and gentlemen, you don’t trade David Wright…
*unless it’s for Tim Lincecum :)
Well, I’d say it has more to do with the REAL production that went into these calculations, but it’s six of one, etc.
Mets need more young and/or hungry players in support roles, like the Rays and Phillies. Trading Wright doesn’t get you there. Drafting and developing does.
Regardless (or perhaps in light) of these projections, I’d pick up Delgado’s option and deal him away. Get a young player or two, maybe a middle reliever. . . You’ll miss the production, but not the attitude. How many postseason games has Delgado won?
Yeah……ok.
But as you watch this world series filled with great young players who have already accomplished more than Reyes and Wright have, just remember their amazing Sept. production.
Umm have you looked at Wright’s september production? It actually was sort of amazing. He was way above the rest of his season numbers.
Except when it was most needed
Failing in one at bat should not have a player condemned to hell….
Regis, how are you not into sabermetrics?
You write for a major baseball blog – it should be part of your job description to be into sabermetrics.
This is like saying I’m a plumber who’s not really into toilets.
Furioso, do you have these replies stored in a file so you can just copy and paste here everyday throughout the winter?
I may as well all I get here is the same talking points over and over
Wow they’ve all one exactly one more playoff game than Wright and Reyes have in their career. I hope the Rays win 4 more this coming week, but lets not book them as perennial WS contenders and the Mets permanent losers just yet ok. And if we are talking September, none of the Rays regulars outside of Pena did anything special in Sept.
Edit: They’ve all *won* exactly one more playoff game than Wright and Reyes have in their career.
The Bill James projection doesn’t know how to handle Jose Reyes for some reason. It underrates him going into every season. I wouldn’t read anything into his numbers at all.
The reason Jose’s numbers tend to be lower in his projections is because he was slower in the start of his career. I am mainly speaking of his OBP and SLG.
If you look at Jose’s career avg you would see that the projections have him putting up a better year then what his career avg is.
BTW for those who do not think projections are worth a damn PECOTA predicted the Rays to win 90 games while Vegas had the over/under in the 70’s.
Sure, but he was like ages 19, 20 and 21 when those numbers were low. These systems should have already adjusted for that.
They didn’t win 90 games, and Vegas numbers have little to do with talent, and a lot to do with what the best number is to get people to bet both sides.
I’m sorry…but this projection business is a joke.
No one knows how any players will perform the following season.
agreed. Just another way to pa ss the time
Yeah man. Math is for losers.
i spoke without really reading the thread….i thought it was some guy on AA that was just taking stabs in the dark as to what he projects the team will do next year. For that i appologize. I didnt know there was a statistical merit to those projections….
The honorable, venerable Bill James no less…
Tell that to the Red Sox, and Rays, and a bunch of other teams that have started using metrics. Maybe if Omar paid some attention to projections we wouldn’t be stuck with Luis Castillo for 3 more years. If you look at the projections from last year they’re almost spot on for all our players, they even projecting Church missing as many games as he did.
Weren’t you one of Castillo’s biggest supporters when it came to his OBP?
No I said he was better than Argenis Reyes & Easley because of his obp, but there’s not a lot of major league players who aren’t more productive than those two. And he’d be useful in the line-up if we used the larussa method and batted him 9th, because the only thing he’s good for is (was) his obp.
They should have at least tried that larussa method to be honest…
They should have tried the Blue Jay/Frank Thomas method and just flat out released him :)
lmaoo!!!! good 1
Actually, I think the Rays are Exhibit A against relying too heavily on these “metrics.” What was their projected record this season? In fact, their emergence coincided with the hiring of a small-ball, aggressive manager (which is supposed to be meaningless.) They are more than the sum of their parts — a true team.
There projected record this season from PECOTA was 90 wins I believe. Metrics definitely expected them to be good.
The Rays projected wins and losses going into this year was actually very good on BP.
OK, FINE!!! Harrumph.
Although the difference b/w 89-90 wins and 97 wins is . . . well, the difference b/w the Mets and Rays.
Wonder how they knew the bullpen would turn it around. . . .
Also I would say their emergence had more to do with their gm completely rebuilding their major league team in like a matter of 2 years. Here are the guys he’s traded for/signed since he was hired at the end of 2005.
traded for
Matt Garza
Dioner Navarro
Grant Balfour
Jason Bartlett
Dan Wheeler
JP Howell
Edwin Jackson
Willy Aybar
Gabe Gross
Ben Zobrist
Chad Bradford
signed
Carlos Pena
Cliff Floyd
Akinori Iwamura
Trever Miller
Every team goes through wholesale changes like that. The leadership of Maddon, Percival, and, um FLOYD have been priceless.
Correct me if I’m wrong (and I may well be), but I doubt the stat-heads would have sanctioned the Delmon Young deal. Were Floyd and Pena sabre-heroes? The same Pena that Beane cast off like a leper?
Apologies for grammar fart. Back to work.
Ummm last year I think everyone would have made the Delmon Young for Matt Garza trade. Garza was considered one of the hottest prospects and just needed a little time to develop. How he has performed this year is no surprise.
TMU, Pena was a SABR guy, people were always waiting for him to break out. High OBP, lots of power.
from an article from baseball prospectus on the young deal:
“With this deal, the Rays have shifted from collecting talent to forming it into a baseball team, and this trade shows how seriously they take the process. Trading a player with the perceived value of Young is never easy, but with it they’ve leveraged a gap between that perceived value and what he actually is to make their team better. This may not a bad trade for the Twins—who have a similar talent-alignment problem, with more pitchers than hitters, and who have been far too pas-sive about addressing it—but it is a very good one for the Rays.”
I don’t know about Floyd but Pena has always had an OPS+ over 100 so imagine he was considered undervalued. He’s always had very good walk totals and power numbers his average was just low, those are often the type of players that are considered undervalued in the market. Especially since he was so young. I’d as-sume metrics are why the red sox brought him in in 06 and why the rays signed him.
And yeah Floyd’s OPS+ and walk and power numbers are insane, especially his walk numbers considering the low amount of at bats he’s gotten the last few years. I imagine he’d be considered a “sabre” guy, or at least very undervalued.
Bingo. They’re not going to be 100% accurate, obviously, but they are a useful gauge when evaluating, and as they are titled, projecting a players season.
You don’t need projections to tell you that signing a player in his 30’s with a bum knee for four years is a stupid idea. ;)
Apparently Omar did =/.
we all know why Omar brought Castillo here – in order to lure Santana to push for a deal to the mets. simple, so don’t kill omar for this move
Take a look at some projections fraom last year, and you will be astounded how acurate some end up being.
Its great to see Regis throwing some stat heads a bone here. Now Regis has to get a tutor for Cerrone……….come on guys………..didn’t we take Stats in college? Its not rocket science. However, the Head of the Cardinals’ Saber department used to work for NASA.
Wow! NASA! He must be SUPER smart!!! World Series, here they come!
Sigh — this is just another manifestation of the ridiculous ways we measure achievement today. . . . Being generally “smart” is supposed to trump experience, judgment, wisdom, etc. Sorry, were I the Cards, and it was Murray Gell-Mann vs. Dave Duncan deciding what to do with a given pitcher, I’d stick with Duncan.
fwiw the cards use sabremetrics too.
do you know if the mets use sabremetrics gina?
I don’t know if anything’s changed but I’m pretty sure Omar and Fred Wilpon are very much against/uninterested in statistical analysis past the traditional things like average.
When Peterson was pitching coach, he used some statistical analysis to identify zones for the pitchers to pitch to. Some guys loved it (Trachsel, Glavine), most did not. But that’s the extent to which I’ve heard the Mets using statistical analysis.
I know that the Mets employ what they call a “stat guy” but his actual role, influence and focus I can’t speak to.
Unfortunately, I picture it somewhere along the lines of an article I read about the Royals about 2 years ago that said they were very interested in measures centered around the walk and OBP, about 5 years after it became public fodder bc of Moneyball.
Prismo, while (of course) the projections are not accurate in all cases, they do seem to be quite accurate a majority of the time. In addition, the given projections are typically the 50th percentile projections, meaning there is plenty of wiggle room to go up and down. However, SABR also gives the likelihood of a player’s stats being higher and lower based on age, position, injury history, etc.
Writing it off as “a joke” is pretty ignorant.
I would think the likelihood of the stats being higher or lower is incredibly important in the overall projection though.
I’d be more favorable of these projections with that included. (Obviously, if I bought the book they would be, but Amazin’ Avenue just posted the numbers)
ignorance? on metsblog? you don’t say
Ha, that wasn’t a knock on Prismo. (Sorry if you think that Prismo). But to say that a theory is a joke because you don’t agree with it is just not fair.
Prismo, if you look at some of the baseball prospectus work, you will see they list a 90%, 80%, 70%… through 10% projections. A lot of work goes into their number crunching. The projections should always be taken with a grain of salt… but I think they’re pretty good to identify outlier points… i.e., if Brady Anderson hits 50+ homers and he’s in the 95th percentile of his projections, he either had a career year or discovered roids.
Exactly, Sovereign! Projections are not calculated once and accepted as gospel. They are calculated thousands and thousands of times drawing from a gigantic pool of historical baseball data. The stat line that pops out of the machine the most often is the projection we see now.
The wider the spread of outcomes, the less likely the projected stat line is to be true. These are usually people who are particularly young, old, or recently injured.
Actually the projections have quite a bit of value. Have you ever read any? When done correctly they are much better than blindly guessing
‘Is it wrong to wish that Brian Schneider had been driving that car in DR and not Ambiorix Burgos? Yea. Probably.’
Man, that’s just cold. Sounds like that ‘Yea Probably’ is only half kidding.
I’m sorry but wanting to win at any cost – having bums on the team that should be in jail – is a little over the top. Yeah, Schneider’s bat was no more or less than expected and his defense was less than we expected but it is what it was. I would not want Burgos on the team at that price. That dude had major problems even before he ran over two women…..
Only the Phillies would be proud to call Myers their #2 starter.
Wow daniel murphy 139gms 14 hrs 80RC……
I think that sounds about right, Dirty. I think his power develops in his mid twenties. Still, not bad for a 23 year old who is under control at ~$400K.
i hope that is right sov…thats pretty generous
Plus, if he achieves even close to those numbers, when you add on the OBP he should get, plus the slugging/extra base hit potential with all of the doubles and triples he hit in like 130 AB, he could be a VERY valuable player right off the bat next year, in the 2 or the 7 hole.
Are those 162 game projections or 145 game projections? Because we all know the Mets generally take the last 17 games of the season off…
I have to admit, Furioso… this was pretty good.
I don’t know why I am asking YOU this, but have you seen the individual offensive stats for September? There are some who have done very well. It’s the bullpen OVERALL that stunk during that time. Actually look at Wright, Delgado, Beltran’s splits during that stretch.
5 runs the final 3 games tells me what I need to know not “stats”
When you respond to a stat post then I would as sume you care about stats. If you do not care then why are you posting?
“Are those 162 game projections or 145 game projections? “
LOL!!
TRS, you are making WAY too much sense for Furioso…frankly, if he tries to comprehend this point of yours, he may have a stroke.
Also, I’m pretty sure 5 runs in 3 games is considered a stat…so to rephrase your sentence we have:
“This specific stat tells me what I need to know, not ’stats’.”
lets not look at september as only 3 games. i’ve done the research and there were 9 games when the bullpen and/or sp cost us games. it should not have come down to the last game of the season.
1) pedro gets shelled by phi
2) bp costs santan win v atl
3) bp costs pelf win v atl
4) pedro gets shelled by nats
5) pelf pitches gem and we score 0 runs against odalis perez
6) bp costs pelf win v atl
7) neise gets shelled
8) ayala gives up 3 v chi
9) bp gets killed by fla in last game
we scored 0 runs v fla bp (2 losses) and 1 run v wsh bp (2 losses)
supposed to be 8 )
lol i commend you real….the daily argument with furiouso….today brought to you by the real..
Furioso, at this point I am not sure what is more annoying and ridiculous—your mind-numbing repetition, your absolute inability to ever contribute anything even remotely positive, or your incredible ignorance.
You are in serious denial regarding all three of these characteristics of EVERY post you make, and as Ricky Fitts once said, “Never underestimate the power of denial.” You are exhibit A of this quote’s validity.
I’ve come to the conclusion that he is, in fact, a robot.
Thing is he has some truth in the fact that the TEAM as a whole has not performed when they needed to. The SP would blow up but then bullpen and hitters would do ok just to lose because of the starters. The offense would shut down and both groups of pitchers would do well and then lose 3-1. It’s a team problem. However, there is no doubt that the majority of the problems stem from the BP. Fix that and see what happens.
Which, ironically, is why he hates computers and stats so much. He just wants to be a human and feel, he just can’t accept who he truly is.
Well, perhaps, but right beneath the surface of your very sensible thought TRS there is ALWAYS lurking the specter of Furioso’s next sentence, blaming Reyes and D-Rod the Horrid for pretty much everything, wanting to trade them and replace them with anyone, as he has said previously about 22,000 times.
Nightlife, you may be on to something here.
I simply don’t understand why this fan base loves them so much.
They’re undeseving
You’re undeserving of having them to cheer for. Not that you cheer for them. You’re probably not even a Mets fan, in fact.
Because they are young, exciting, and very talented.
Jose still has to achieve consistency and a bit more maturity and he can be Rickey Henderson with a lot more triples and a lot less baggage, while fielding very well at a key position.
Wright will eventually be the first career-long non-pitcher Met in Cooperstown. Great hitter, excellent fielder, and by all accounts, a great guy off the field as well.
And they are both 25, and have contracts that are VERY reasonable by today’s standards, which not only makes them non-greedy, but also team-oriented, as not having an agent like Boras, and taking the farsighted reasonable contracts they did helps the team be able to spend much more on others.
so furioso….if the mets could replace wright at 3b….would a player that hits 300, 25+hr, 100 rbi, 100runs and since we need someone to be clutch…lets say his career average RISP is around 300, late and close is around 300….and since DW cant get it done down the stretch (aug/sept) he would bat 320 or so in those months….do you think this guy could be the fix the mets need?
I’d say replace them with guys who AREN’T CHOKERS.
well would that guy do for you…for starters?
Irish Hammer? Is he making a John Milner comparison? I hope he’s better than Milner. Milner couldn’t hit for average
I hope Marlon Anderson doesn’t get that many at bats. Unless he gets healthy and loses a little weight.
I’m hoping he’s not on the team, but I guess there’s 5 million reasons he will be.
Marlon? He is only due 1.25 million right?
Yeah you’re right. I must have him confused with someone else.
I would as sume that he will be dumped or released. Maybe we could get someone else’s junk for him. Maybe that idea of Jones for Castillo and Marlon?
Him and Castillo combine for almost that much :-)
It would not be a bad deal for the Dodgers as they need a 2B and Marlon could compete for a bench job.
They get rid of a problem in Jones as they know he will not be happy with a bench role. With us, he has a chance to be the LF fulltime with Murphy at 2B. He would hit very low in the order and have no pressure on him.
Reyes, Murphy, Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Church, Jones, Schnieder/Castro.
you want to talk about a black hole…..marlon was downright awful this year.
Our bench really hurt us this year, but I have a hard time blaming that all on Omar. Marlon Anderson has been a very good player for us both times around.
We can all agree that Tatis would have been a fantastic bench player (and proved to be a more than adequate replacement for Alou in LF), had Alou not missed the entire season.
Endy just wasn’t used at all. Our bench was further depleted by the loss of Church for an extended period of time.
All in all, it seems like we had some depth on this team, but all of the injuries diluted it a little bit. Would still like to tweak the bench a little bit (i.e. not carry 3 catchers).
3 catchers does not hurt IF you use Castro as a pinch hitter. Unfortunately we just carried them so Cancel could get AB’s and Castro could eat.
However, on days that Castro starts (although those are few and far between), having Brian Schneider pinch hit for the pitcher as the tying run doesn’t instill the utmost confidence. Maybe I’m only speaking for myself though.
Well you would not have to have Schnieder pinch hitting. However, if it was a RHP you could do worse.
OK, I give up. You won’t have to have Schneider pinch hitting. Replace him with Robinson Cancel. I feel much better about that.
It’s really tough to do much worse than Schneider. Most every team has a guy that hits .220, but can jack 10HR as a bench player (Matt Stairs). We need a guy that we can put up there with two men on and two out, down three, that can tie the game with one swing…like that guy from Oakland last year whose name escapes me.
You should have that in Tatis. Again, you don’t have to use Schneider in that situation. Now if you have Schnider starting and a RHRP up then you really don’t have options. We need a LHPH.
Interesting how James thinks its likely that Fernando Martinez will play 128 games.
“Nick Evans will have a higher OPS than Jose Reyes but play in a third less games.”
terrible predication. way off.
Yeah, I agree….predicting Evans having a higher OPS than Jose is pretty bold….but Evans did show some potential in the minors, as he did hit for a lot more power and walked a lot more in the minors than he did for the Mets last year. He must be basing his prediction on this…
I think the few AB means he’d be a strict platoon player, in which case, it’s not that unrealistic.
He only has him getting like 138 at bats. It’s not like he’s predicting it over a full season.
Thanks for pointing that out Gina…they way Regis wrote it was wrong, where he said Evans will play one third less games than Reyes, which would mean he would play about 105–110 games, when he meant one third OF the games Reyes would play in, so it does make a lot more sense this way, as he could achieve decent numbers as a platoon player and spot starter.
terrible prediction. foolish.
if it was murphy, perhaps, but evans. please.
Evans had an .894 ops against lefties in 72 at bats this year. Why is it ridiculous to think he could ops .824 in like 60 more at bats.
If this goes by career, then Pelfrey is probably going to have a pretty bad projection. It’s going to look at 2005 and 2006 and not take into account that he turned a corner in 2007.
Yeah, I’m curious if anybody knows a little more about Bill James’ system. I know PECOTA accounts for past breakouts, I’d bet James does as well but maybe it won’t tell the whole story about Pelfrey.
If you click on the link for pitchers it does give Pelfrey a bad (for what we’re hoping for) prediction. It also gives Pedro a really good one.
And thats probably the reason.
It’s also because of Pelfrey being a sinkerballer, according to the guy who posted this at amazin avenue, Eric Simon, they universally outperform there ERA projections.
why you guys respond to worthless trolls like furioso is beyond me. just ignore him and his retarded rants and he’ll go away.
I used to agree, but today and yesterday, the responses to Fury-boy have actually included some really good points, and some serious humor, exhibit A being whoever was clever enough to sign in as “Furioso’s Mom” last night.
As*uming it wasn’t REALLY his mom.
But essentially, you are of course right.
those posts were pretty funny…but it just gives him more attention, which just inspires him to make more of these idiotic posts.
Yeah, I know you are right…and frankly I have posted just about exactly what you did, and I guess I cannot control myself.
You really are 100% right though, I do know that.
i’m supposed to believe Heilman will have the best ERA of the relief pitchers?
LOL – I don’t think one of us who watched last season would take that bet….