Opinion: Good in KC, not in Chicago, Why?

October 24, 2008 at 3:37 pm · 83 comments

by Matthew Cerrone

In a post to Mets Fever, Ed Ryan suggests that the Mets sign 28–year-old LHP Horacio Ramirez to replace of Oliver Perez.

Personally, I do not know enough about Ramirez to comment either way, other than I recall him being pretty good for the Braves.

However, it occurred to me while looking at his stats, that Ramirez is the definition of what makes acquiring a relief pitcher so confusing.

In 15 relief appearances for the Royals during the first half of this season, Ramirez looked good, posting a 2.59 ERA, allowing less than one base runner per inning through 24 innings pitched, during which opponents hit just .228 against him.

He was then traded to the White Sox in August.

However, In 17 relief appearances for Chicago, Ramirez was 0–3 with a 7.62 ERA in 13 innings, during which opponents hit .393 against him.  Yes, .393.

Think about, opponents were hitting .228 against him when he wore a Royals cap, yet they hit nearly .400 when he wore a White Sox cap.

How does a guy look so good for one team, while being considered a valuable enough reliever to be traded to a playoff contender, only to travel 500 miles to another team, in the same division, three days later, where he instantly becomes a liability?

Seriously, how does this happen?  And, more importantly, how can this type of situation be avoided?

{ 83 comments }

Sylar October 24, 2008 at 3:40 pm

You didn’t seriously dedicate an entire post to Horacio Ramirez, did you??

Seriously???

He’s complete garbage, and the Mets shouldn’t touch him with a 10 ft. pole

Horatio Sanz is a better pitcher than him at this point….

jectalo October 24, 2008 at 4:23 pm

his BABIP went up from .258 to .409.

it took me 90 seconds to look that up.

Gina October 24, 2008 at 4:32 pm

His line drive percentage also went up like 10 points.

It took me 40 seconds to look that up.

IMO BABIP and percentages really aren’t a very good way to judge a guy who pitched a total of 13 innings. One hit is going to change it dramatically.

ksuth October 24, 2008 at 5:29 pm

I’M GOING TO INTERVIEW DANIEL MURPHY…SEND QUESTIONS TO :

LLRBLOG [AT] GMAIL[DOT]COM

shannon October 24, 2008 at 5:48 pm

that’s sick. how are you interviewing him?

Slob October 24, 2008 at 7:35 pm

He’s gonna sneak into his room at night.

Simon October 24, 2008 at 7:54 pm

Question 1: Can I touch you? Question 2: Can I touch your hair?

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 10:09 pm

does he wear boxers or breifs? and are they crushed red velvet like the murph and the magic tones outfits? :P

Matthew Cerrone October 24, 2008 at 3:41 pm

Well, I wouldn’t say I dedicated the entire post TO Ramirez, and certainly not dedicated to whether the Mets should acquire him.

Instead, it is dedicated to the idea of how erratic and risky a relief pitcher can be, even within one season, and Ramirez is the example.

Dirtysanchez October 24, 2008 at 3:44 pm

thats why they say relief pitchers are a crap shoot.

Seaver41 October 24, 2008 at 3:51 pm

No, Dirty: Mets relievers are just crap.

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 10:21 pm

you dare say rich rodriguez was crap -HOW DARE YOU SIR !!! :P

CitizenSnips October 24, 2008 at 3:54 pm

That’s kinda what I figured. I’m of the mindset that good consistent relievers are hard to find, though some actually do see a great deal of success. Another great example of how erratic relievers can be is Dennys Reyes. In 2005 he pitched 43.7 innings for the Padres and wound up with a 5.15 ERA. In 2006 he was picked up by the Twins and picked up an astounding 0.89 ERA in 50.7 innings. The next year for the Twins he was back up to 3.99 ERA, granted he picked a little over half of what he did the previous year. This season he’s down to 2.33 ERA in 46.3 innings. There are a ton of relievers like that so I wouldn’t just go through money at someone unless there was a consistent pattern showing.

4JoeOrsulak October 24, 2008 at 4:08 pm

The reason is that your entire total was less than 35 innings.

Please tell me that you know that anything can happen in 35 innings.

Cactus October 24, 2008 at 4:24 pm

a garbage pitcher who happened to string a few good innings together has nothing to do with relief pitching being a “crapshoot”.

when you have an idea in your head and then go searching for data to support it, you’re not making much of an argument.

the argument you’re really making is that any baseball player can have some good or bad samples no matter how good or bad they are.

when a relief pitcher, who typically pitches 60 or so innings a year, has some bad outings, they can end up with bad numbers.

that in no way, shape, or form, means that relief pitching is a “crapshoot”. what it means is that basic numbers like ERA may not be best way to see if a reliever is a good pitcher or not.

jedimynd October 24, 2008 at 4:41 pm

Excellent point Cactus. A few bad outings can really inflate the ERA and THAT has been my argument for a while with other baseball heads.

Other indicator like WHIP, OPS against, K-BB ratio, K per 9 inning are probably a better indicator of a good relief pitcher.

deloid October 24, 2008 at 7:20 pm

I think that was a timely and excellent point Matthew. Relief pitchers tend to be less predictable then SP, position players or specialists (Closers).
I would like a closer for our Mets but I think Omar seems to know that the rest of the BP is a toss of the dice. Trades or signings for BP duty (pther than closers) will always be a gamble.

This year I would hope for a closer then use who we’ve got coming up with the vets we now have. Heilman needs to be tested as a starter if he is not traded. As others have stated he would help the team two ways as such…either perform well as a #5 or do well enough to help with a trade before the summer trade deadline. It seems like teams are always hoping to find a starter. The BP guys come from waivers.

Slob October 24, 2008 at 7:36 pm

I dedicate this post to Horatio Ramirez. He will be missed.

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 10:10 pm

hey slob when can we pay tribute to tom petchorek from the 86 team??

Two-By-Four October 25, 2008 at 1:49 am

He registered to vote in Ohio. :)

adamwsynnex October 24, 2008 at 3:41 pm

pitching is all about comfort and confidence…i doubt chicago’s defense was as good either

Tidewater October 24, 2008 at 4:30 pm

Stuff is kind of important too. I’m comfortable and confident, but I doubt I’d get that many outs.

TBlz October 24, 2008 at 4:41 pm

Dont doubt yourself. That is the same kind of attitude that this BP displays, and look where it left them…

Tidewater October 24, 2008 at 4:42 pm

good point!

iamatwork October 24, 2008 at 3:48 pm

It’s different situations.

BAA Lefties: .350
BAA Righties .258

Seaver41 October 24, 2008 at 3:50 pm

I am sick of every other fan suggesting the Mets reach into the pitching cess pool to fish out another fetid, rancid piece of crap to offer employment to.
I’M REALLY $%#$#$% SICK OF IT!!!
Dammit, does anyone remember Jorge Sosa?
How about Danny Graves?
Mke DeJean?
Kazuhisa Ishii?
Mr. Koo?
Jose Lima?
The late Geremi Gonzalez?
Jason Vargas?
Brian Lawrence?
Does anyone remember what all these &^%$^&( bums have in common? They were all scraped from under the rim of the Port Authority toilet by Omar Minaya and none of them were worth the filth they were scraped from.
How the hell would Horacio Ramirez be any different?

Dirtysanchez October 24, 2008 at 3:52 pm

danny graves…..”cold shiver”
there have been some good ones to come out the pitching cest pool(dont feel like doing the research but im sure it averages out)..theres a couple of good names in beimel and juan cruz that omar should take a look at…

Seaver41 October 24, 2008 at 3:59 pm

Juan Cruz, yes.
Joe Beimel, no.
He’s a lush, who if you remember from a couple of years ago hurt his hand in a Manhattan bar on the eve of the Mets playoff series with the Dodgers. he might’ve made an impact pitching to Delgado.

mrose October 24, 2008 at 5:15 pm

are you kidding? seaver41, thats the worst argument you have ever had for not picking up a player….the guy got drunk one night..therefore hes a lush? Things happen..Cole hamels broke his hand in a bar fight a few years back..I certainly wouldn’t take him either, hes bound to be drunk ALL THE TIME!

West Milly October 24, 2008 at 5:49 pm

I guess the difference would be getting in a bar fight and smashing your hand on someone’s face in the off season or smashing your hand on someone’s face when you’re most likely going to be pitching the next day for a playoff game.

I’m all for beer, but the night before a playoff game at a bar? Maybe the Mets can sign him but stipulate in the contract that they will provide him his own personal mini bar so he doesn’t need to hit the night life.

TBlz October 24, 2008 at 3:54 pm

Thats why you invite a ton of them to camp. Throw enough turds against a wall, and something is bound to stick.

Seaver41 October 24, 2008 at 4:01 pm

Yeah and in the process, your wall and the rest of your proverbial house smells like $#*! and is disgusting to clean up and remove and in the end, no matter how much cleaning you do, the stench is still there.

TBlz October 24, 2008 at 4:06 pm

But in most cases that you mention, at some point in their careers, they were all considered at the very least, average pitchers. Which is what most bullpens are made up of anyway.
Point is, I think its very hard to accurately predict who is going to be great out of a bullpen every year. You try and catch lightning in a bottle and hope it stays lit all year. Going out and spending big money on set-up and middle relief men is just a waste of money.

TBlz October 24, 2008 at 4:08 pm

By the way, no thanks neccesary for tossing you that soft-ball that you hammered out of here.

Tidewater October 24, 2008 at 4:34 pm

Isn’t this all why the modern bullpen is a stupid way to construct a team? Force your veteran pitchers to throw more pitches and innings (I have no quarrel with babying young arms a little) and reduce the number of arms in the pen to a few of quality. It is the age old lament: there’s never enough pitching. So how can there possibly be enough for 30 teams to have 7-8 relievers?

I don’t want to sound like an old coot, but go back to the old way of 10 – 11 man staffs, not 12-13!

TBlz October 24, 2008 at 4:37 pm

I agree Tide…these guys are “professional” baseball players that throw the ball for a living. The media and fan base these days act like throwing 100 pitches is a super-human feat. Sheesh.

Dirtysanchez October 24, 2008 at 3:50 pm

now apply that concept to someone on the same team from one year to the next
heilman 07-3.06
heilman 08-5.20
who the hell knows….granted heilman was with a playoff contending team but theres no real way to explain a 2.14 era spike over one year….

Jaded1983 October 24, 2008 at 3:52 pm

injury

Tidewater October 24, 2008 at 4:38 pm

he’s a p–sy?

Sylar October 24, 2008 at 3:55 pm

Heilman walked significantly more batters this year than the previous 2 years, and he gave up a much higher percent of flyballs, which led to more homeruns, and thus the higher ERA

Gina October 24, 2008 at 4:25 pm

He gave up 1% higher fly balls. His line drive percentages however went up 3%.

mgi0200 October 24, 2008 at 3:57 pm

I dont get it, Mets just disappointed their fans for two seasons and are currently getting ready for a new stadium that will help increase their revenues. With that said they have money to spend this offseason and can raise their payroll. Mets should be signing one of Sabathia, Tex (Have Delgado so outlook not good), Manny, K-Rod… People could say no to it all they want however it would help relieve some tension built up from the past two seasons… Look at trades for Matt Holliday or Jose Guillen…Both guys have their names floating around and I think the mets being in a win now mentality could trade prospects to get him. I know a lot sounds far fetched but as a fan it would annoy me to see them sign horatio ramirez and miss out on big time free agents when they need to upgrade somewhere. If they do not upgrade it will be a severly disappointing offseason.

Seaver41 October 24, 2008 at 4:02 pm

Amen, brother. Horacio $#$%^&% Ramirez. Unacceptable.

gowrightgo October 24, 2008 at 5:16 pm

I’m with you guys. I think we should be spending heavily to improve the team. Been saying it since the season ended. We need 2 big time relievers and one big time hitting right handed LF plus one medium level starter..

Here is my plan…

1) Trade Murphy, Neise and FMART for Holliday (big right handed hitting LF now out of the way. (must come with an extension right away)

2) Buy KRod at his market rate

3) Trade Evans Heilman and Parnell for Huston Street to be the 8th inning guy

4) Sign Jon Garland or Derek Lowe to be the number 4 pitcher

5) Resign our own Oliver Perez

Rotation is Santana, Maine, Pelfrey, Lowe and Olliver Perez

Everyday lineup of

Reyes
Castillo
Beltran
Wright
Delgado
Holiday
Church
Schneider

I still do not like Castilo and Schneids but love the rest of it

As to the pen, working from the back forward…
KRod -closer
Huston Street – 8th inning
Kunz – 7th inning crossover guy
Smith – RH specialist
Shoe – LH specialist
Ayala – 6th and 7th inning crossover guy
Stokes – 6th and 7th inning crossover guy

It sets up future issues at 1b when Delgado is gone and we have no one to play 1 without Murphy or Evans in the system anymore

And we still have a poor hitting catcher and a poor hitting 2b. But can’t really expect more from just one offseason

ASod1975 October 24, 2008 at 5:29 pm

I like your thinking but I’m just not interested in trading Murphy. He has the looks of a great hitter, and he’s still young and improving. Holliday is fairly ordinary outside of Coors (still good, but not nearly as good as his Coor’s splits). I certainly wouldn’t mind getting him, but not with Murphy AND F-Mart going in the deal. Instead of going for Street (who I think is extremely overrated), just sign a Juan Cruz to go along with K-Rod in the pen. Resign Ollie and go with either Niese or Parnell for the fifth starter spot. But I agree, the Mets have to open up the wallets yet do it smartly. No mega-old dudes like Moises Alou, please. And I’d stay away from Fuentes. He reminds me too much of John Franco, overachieving lefties who got buy more on guts than stuff. Doesn’t do much for me….

DjDeF October 24, 2008 at 5:41 pm

gowrightgo, you are basically the reason i stopped reading the comments section. Stop with the Holiday trades. We do not have enough to get him. Your trade proposals have continually been that of “here is a piece of garbage give me $100.

jscand October 25, 2008 at 8:18 am

I don’t agree DjDeF. I may not make the trades gowrightgo proposed, but I don’t think it is far off what the Rockies or A’s would want.

You don’t think the Rockies would trade Holliday (if they are truly shopping him) for F-Mart, Niese, and Murphy?

You don’t think the A’s would take something close to Heilman, Parnell, and Evans for Houston Street.

Personally, I would save those bullets for different players, but I think the framework of building the team suggested by gowrightgo could work.

rustyjr October 25, 2008 at 9:16 am

jscand although i understand where you are coming from – i just don’t like holidays splits away from colorado huston street is intriging if it means giving up heilman and evans but still street is a headcase who might not want to be a set up man remember it seems we are going hard after fuentes and k-rod

Gina October 25, 2008 at 11:02 am

jscand, I don’t think it’s close to what Oakland and the Rockies want. I think mets fan overvalue our prospects by a lot. Especially the A’s deal, you’re trading a 30 year old arbitration eligible reliever, a pitching prospect who grades out as a middle reliever at best to most scouts and a positional player who hasn’t shown much plate patience, or the ability to hit righties and plays average to below average defense. I imagine Beane would laugh at that trade proposal.

stickguy October 24, 2008 at 3:59 pm

also with most relievers (like the example above Matt used), you are also dealing \with small sample size. 40 innings just isn’t that many.

Too lazy to do the math, but pretty much one bad outing can balloon an ERA for a reliever and it may never recover. So to some extent, the ERA variances year to year could almost be luck.

Someone posted stats for Fuentes a few days back that, if you took out IIRC 1 inning (2 appearances) his ERA was very low. Basically those 2 apps blew it up for the year.

Gina October 24, 2008 at 4:06 pm

From looking at his game logs I think thats the answer. He had 2 horrible appereances. One where he pitched 1 inning and gave up 3 runs and one where he pitched .2 innings and gave up 2. Just looking over the game logs I imagine if you take those out his era with the white sox drops like a rock.

Also fwiw KC is more of a pitcher friendly park.

Gina October 24, 2008 at 4:11 pm

Actually he had 4 pretty bad appearances. he had another one where he gave up a run and was taking out before recording an out and another where he went .2 and and gave up 1 run. If you take that out he had like 7 innings of scoreless relief, and 6 terrible innings.

But yeah the fact that he only had 13 total innings with the white sox definitely skews his numbers there.

edfever October 24, 2008 at 4:06 pm

As a fifth starter, league min. with incentives. which allows niese to cont. to develop in AAA instead of rushing him. Still need a Lowe type but look at the numbers as starters and think of the difference in cost…..

Ollie Mets career- 26-20 in 70 starts with an ERA of 4.72
Ramirez Braves- 30-22 in 86 starts and a 3.87 ERA

Sylar October 24, 2008 at 4:16 pm

Those numbers don’t tell the whole story:

In 2005, Horacio Ramirez had an ERA of 2.39, and it was a complete fluke (31 SO, 30 walks). In every other year besides that, his ERA was in the mid 4s or higher.

Perez had a terrible 2006, but was terrific after that for the Mets.

Gina October 24, 2008 at 4:23 pm

Perez’s ERA has been in the mid 4’s or higher ever year but 07 and 04.

edfever October 24, 2008 at 4:31 pm

Ollie – ERA 6.38, 3.56, 4.22
Hac- ERA 4.00, 2.69, 4.63, 4.48

Perez last year was 4.22

they both had a really good year that brought them both down…All I’m saying is if Ollie is too expensive for the last spot in the rotation I’d rather take a chance on a mid 4 ERA 28 y/o lefty then a fading 36 y/o righty

FlightFromHouston October 24, 2008 at 4:22 pm

There’s only so many Scott Shiledses to go around

baseball needs to contract some teams.

mrose October 24, 2008 at 5:19 pm

ladies and gentlemen..the BIGGEST IDIOT ON METSBLOG!

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 6:59 pm

yeah flight from huston (aka mike scott) makes furioso look like a brain surgeon and fiya minaya a manager at the local mcdonalds

DerekCarty October 24, 2008 at 4:27 pm

HERE IS THE DEFINITIVE REASON WHY THIS HAPPENS

Think about flipping a coin. Flip it twice. We know that it should come up heads once, and tails once, 50/50. But it won’t always. Sometimes it will come up 2 Heads, and sometimes 2 Tails, 100/0. Other times it will do exactly as it should, 1 Heads and 1 Tails, 50/50.

This is called random variation, and it plays a huge part in baseball performance, believe it or not. Now pretend you flip the coins 1 million times. You will almost certainly now get that 50/50 split.

Plus, in baseball, you’re dealing with human beings with an ever-changing set of skills. What you’re looking at with Ramirez is simply luck swings. Sheer luck, and very little more than that, because the sample you’re looking at is too small. The smaller the sample size (like a couple months of a baseball season), the more likely you’ll see random variation.

There are stats you can look at to tell exactly what form the luck is taking, and stats you can look at that neutralize the luck and isolate the player’s true skill, but overall this is how it works. If you are looking to build a quality bullpen, simply saying “It’s all luck anyway so get whoever you want” isn’t the right approach. You take the pitchers with the best skills, that way even if they do experience bad luck, a pitcher who should post a 2.00 ERA might only post a 4.00 ERA. If he should post a 4.00 ERA, then you’re looking at an awful 6.00 ERA. Make sense?

ALL PITCHERS ARE SUBJECT TO THIS. The reason some people consider relievers to be more “risky” is because relievers throw fewer innings, which is a smaller sample than starters, and therefore these swings can be more apparent.

If anyone would like a longer, more detailed explanation, feel free to e-mail me, and I’d be happy to explain.

Gina October 24, 2008 at 4:38 pm

That’s all good and dandy, but with the mets current front office the throwing crap at the wall and hoping it sticks method is the best option.

chico October 24, 2008 at 4:53 pm

we’ve done that the last 2 years in a row and all we have left to show for it is watching the philthies in the playoffs. I’m tired of it.

Gina October 24, 2008 at 5:00 pm

I’m tired of it too, but with the current make-up of the front office it’s not going to change. Advanced stats just aren’t an interest of our front office as far as I know.

chico October 24, 2008 at 6:42 pm

I don’t care if they know anything about advanced statistics. I used to think the idea was okay to try to throw as much garbage at the wall and hope that some of it sticks, but we have proven that at least in NY, it doesn’t stick. I don’t need statistics to show that to me. My eyes do that just fine. They need to try something else this winter because the old philosophy obviously isn’t working. That’s all I’m saying. Statistics don’t really have much to do with my argument in this case, just that the past performances aren’t working, and Einstein would argue that to keep doing it is crazy.

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 7:06 pm

i betcha frank cashen scoffs at sabermetrics

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 6:58 pm

ahhh core 5 stats and probability – the bane of my existance (why i didn’t graduate college) :P

zen October 24, 2008 at 5:19 pm

g-d no.

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 7:06 pm

btw way guys from mlb.com
Heyman has the Mets, Rangers, and Indians as teams looking at Brian Fuentes. The Mets are the favorite to sign him in the three-year, $36MM range
be afraid be very afraid – i see a hot stove like after 2000 when we signed the likes of Trashel and Appier when we couida at least tried for a-rod and mussina – look if we go out and try to get top tier free agents and fail it won’t bother me as much but to be on the peripheriary (sic) and jump in at the last moment and say ” see we tried and we were the second choice) then i as a fan will be seriously pisses – especially when we have a new stadium with a 30 mil a year naming right , a cable channel that is highly sucessful and at least 30 mil coming off the books . if the mets turn into the spendthrift front office of the steve phillips era i will be extremely upset

Leiter22 October 24, 2008 at 8:37 pm

We should make a run at Jamie Moyer for the back end of the rotation to replace Pedro…hes a lefty, he stays healthy, logs major innings, and he OWNS FLA and WAS!

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 10:12 pm

to quote the aflac duck in the yogi add ” whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa????????????????????????????????????????”

chico October 24, 2008 at 9:02 pm

You want Moyer? He’s 150 or something. He makes Pedro look like a spring chicken. I thought the idea was to get younger, not raid the senior citizens center. Haven’t we learned our lesson with Alou? Just because they are aging and did well before they got to us, it doesn’t mean they will do well when they get here. This is where the senior citizens come to die, and it’s time for them to learn that we are no longer the nursing home for the mlb.

rustyjr October 24, 2008 at 10:14 pm

isaiah thomas overdosing on sleeping pills – somewhere the last knick fan alive is smiling

Furioso October 24, 2008 at 10:51 pm

Get some hard throwing K pitchers for the pen who can get lefties and righties out

Throw in a LOOGY, a swing guy who can guy a couple innings, and maybe a guy who shows the batters a different look

Then you have success.

Omar will utterly fail to do this again

metz1 October 24, 2008 at 11:52 pm

i wonder what Omar is thinking right now? [''i cant believe they gave me an extension!]

metz1 October 24, 2008 at 11:54 pm

and yknow what? neither can i.

rustyjr October 25, 2008 at 9:13 am

he’s saying mmmmmmmmmmm doughnuts :P or maybe “why do i read the comment section on mets blog?”

C Dubb October 25, 2008 at 9:59 am

Matt, Ramirez pitched only 13.0 innings with the White Sox. He appeared in 17 games and gave up runs in 7 of them (5 of those games being against the Rays, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees twice, for what it’s worth). That’s not a good percentage, but it’s also not outrageously bad. A .393 BAA is bad, but some perspective – 24 hits in 61 AB’s – would be appropriate.

I disagree with the “bullpen is a crapshoot” mentality.

rustyjr October 25, 2008 at 10:09 am

cdubb although i agree with what u r saying but if we got a guy like him mid-season put him into meaningful games and he blew holds like he did for the wsox we woulda called for his head and he would be burried so far down in the pen he’d be saying hi to jimmy hoffa

darknova October 25, 2008 at 10:00 am

He’s laying on top of a big pile of money daydreaming about ManRam.

rustyjr October 25, 2008 at 10:09 am

u sayin he has a man crush on manram?

rustyjr October 25, 2008 at 10:07 am

guys read mets today cuz they make the comparison of us wanting to get rid of castillio ( addition by subtraction) and the 01, 02 teams and how this could spiral out of control

chavez06 October 25, 2008 at 10:57 am

what to you think will take to get Joakim Soria from KC? Would Delgado, Evans, & Kunz do? Or would it take F-Mart?

Gina October 25, 2008 at 11:03 am

I don’t think you’re close with those offers. Especially including Delgado KC has absolutely no reason to want him. Even if for some reason we paid his contract they wouldn’t want him. They have two highly regarded first base and dh prospects.

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