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In his latest report for SI.com, Jon Heyman lists his version of the Top 44 free agents and the Top 13 names in the trade market, as well as other Hot Stove information.
…this is a must-read report, as it’s 
an outstanding overview on what the off-season will bring…
In Heyman’s opinion, when all is said and done, the Mets could end up signing Brian Fuentes to a three-year deal and Derek Lowe to a four-year deal.
Lastly, according to Heyman, the Rockies and D’Backs and other teams still believe that Aaron Heilman can be starting pitcher.
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I want Lowe, but a 4 year deal sounds like too much at his age.
what about Burnett? He’ll cost more than Lowe, but he’s younger and yes has been injured…but he was great with TOR this year, and he gets to go back to the NL east where he’s been successful. I’d rather take a chance on Burnett for more money than Ollie less many and same years.
Because he was in a opt out/contract year ,that was the reason he pitched “good” this year with Toronto. BTW the Mets offense will be same one of last season so yes we gonna have Castillo in 2nd base ,so lets be patient !
If the Mets are in such a dire need to upgrade at the catching position why not call up Texas and offer a Heilman/Nick Evans package for Saltalamacchia. Texas will always need pitching and Heilman has shown (Up and Down) that he can pitch and we get our catcher for the next 6 years. Salty can hit for power and he is not bad behind the plate.
If the Mets signed Fuentes, Lowe, and Ibanez all to 3-4 year contracts…in 3-4 years they’d all be in their late 30’s.
Is that the kind of team Omar is setting up for the future?
*sigh*
Having old players isn’t a problem as long as you have young ones coming up to replace them, ie. the Red Sox the last 4-5 years, they’re older than dirt. The question is are we going to stop drafting 20 “quick turn around” middle relievers every year and trying to build through free agency? If so then signing these guys won’t be a problem.
Lowe is the consistency we need in the Rotation…Fuentes I am not overjoyed about…he’s over rated and liable to crack under NY Pressure.
I agree with the Fuentes= overrated sentiment. I live in Colorado and end up going to quite a few games during the year when the Mets are off, so that I can catch some live baseball. I still think Fuentes is worth 3yrs/$30mil, but he has always struck me more as an 8th inning set-up man, not terribly overpowering, but gets the job done.
I know this might be out of place, but thought I would chime in with another Rockies comment, based on watching them on a fairly regular basis. Holliday is a very, very good hitter. I know his HR #’s would go way down leaving Coors field, as a lot of his shots would be warning track material at Citi Field, but it doesn’t change that he absolutely crushes the ball. He had more than a few line drives this year that I thought were going to take an infielder’s head off. However, he is easily the worst fielding major league outfielder I’ve seen in a very long time. He makes Daniel Murphy look like a GG winner. I spent several weeks focusing on him when there was talk of him being traded mid-season last year, and he really is comical in the field. His routes to the ball, being constantly yelled at by his CF to change his position, and his mediocre throwing arm all point to him being a DH. I just don’t see him staying in the NL for much longer.
No Holliday please ,he will cost us F-Mart and he is starting to show what he can do in the Dominican WBL .
MLBTR is reporting that Ryan Dempster is going to test the FA Market and that the Cubs are in line just like everyone else.
Why not go after Dempster, hard? He’s 31, had a 17-6 record last year, his ERA was 2.96 and throws gas…95/96mph. I would take him over Lowe any day of the week. Add him to the rotation and it’s: Santana, Dempster, Pelfrey, Maine and TBD (maybe Neise)….that’s a solid rotation.
Meh Dempster is too much of a risk IMO. He was a mediocre starter for years before he got moved into the bullpen. I don’t have a lot of faith in him being able to repeat this year’s success. Or at least not enough to invest the kind of money he’d be asking for and forgo a more proven, albiet older, option like Lowe.
I disagree completely. Dempster is much younger than Lowe and throws a much better game. The Cubs certainly had faith in him when he started their NLDS games as their #1.
He’s a much better option that Lowe, or Perez, for that matter. When is this team going to learn not to invest in older players who are on the downside of their career? By the way, Lowe will be 36 next season…
Lowe was 14-11 last year with a 3.24 ERA in a pitchers park. Not to mention Lowe is a groundball pitcher, so IF defense has to be solid in order for him to succeed. 2B and 1B are major holes defensively. Oh and Lowe’s ERA is typically in the high 3’s if not 4’s.
Lowe is a solid player, this year, but in the next three his ability is going to decline and won’t have the luxery of being in a pitchers park. While in Boston his ERA was consistantly in the 4’s and topped out over 5 once. His numbers have been in steady decline, check for yourself.
Dempster would be a much better sign. Younger and more durable.
For about the same price…Dempster is the better option. But I think he’ll stay in Chicago…if anything him going into FA is just a bargaining tool to stay with the cubs.
what about Burnett?
Dempster has had one good season.
Nick, I know we can’t know for sure, but Citi is supposed to be a pitcher’s park like Shea so I don’t really understand how Lowe’s ERA in a hitter’s park in the AL makes sense. Your point about defense is well taken though.
And Dempster is going to be 32 next year coming off a career year, and that ridiculous glove wag thing is not going to work forever. Plus it’s really annoying. That would be buying REALLY high on Dempster.
demspter’s numbers are unsustainable. he may be decent next year, but he’ll be nowhere near as good.
Lowe is battle tested, inning eater, consistent, and a big game pitcher. Yes he is 34 or 35, but this is what the Mets need to replace Oliver Perez. Perez left the team out to dry too many times with his erratic performance. His track record calls for at least a 4 year deal on the open market.
I agree. I think we need to sign Lowe and Ollie though. I would go 4 yrs and $50-56MM on Lowe. I would give Ollie 4yrs/$52MM.
4 years for Lowe? So you’re willing to take him as a pitcher in our rotation until he’s 40?
I get why people are high on Lowe, I do. RIght now, he’s a great/good pitcher who eats innings and keeps the ball down low.
But (there’s always a ‘but’)…He’s not getting any younger. He needs good defense behind him if he’s to succeed and we have major gaps at 2B and 1B. He has been pitching in a pitchers park in LA and his ERA is still in the high 3’s. When he was in Boston, which leans more towards our field dimensions, his ERA was in the 4’s and 5’s.
I’m not sold on Lowe being that great in 2010, 2011 and so on. I think he’ll do okay next year, 14/15 wins. But after that, he’ll decline and we’ll be back in the same situation we are now.
We should have learned by signing a guy like Pedro…please don’t go down that road again.
NickA, Lowe had two seasons in Boston with a 4 or 5 ERA, he also had a 21-8 season with a 2.58 ERA. Can’t selectively take the bad seasons only. Truth is, he’s likely somewhere in the middle between those two extremes. Which is pretty good, IMO.
Heyman is too much.
This is what he thought of CBP…
12. Pat Burrell, outfielder. Streaky and sullen, he still can still hit 30 home runs (at least in Citizens Bank Joke Yard). Not my type, but someone will probably give him a three-year deal.
How hard would it be for Heyman to look up Burrel’s home/away splits? He was a much much better hitter on the road. In 2 less at bats on the road he hit 9 more homers.
What are his total splits since being in Philly?
He’s been in Philly his whole career.
Home
at bats: 2224
avg: .259
obp: .369
slug: .482
hr: 118
Away
at bats: 2311
avg: .255
obp: .365
slug: .488
hr: 133
Does that include CBP and the Vet? Thanks for the stats Gina! :-)
Yeah it’s his whole career.
fwiw you can find splits at pretty much any sports site. I go to yahoo because it’s not full of unnecessary clutter like ESPN’s page.
Thanks Gina. You rock!
Nice job Gina, and Heymann writing this shows his ignorance as well as his laziness…
Howard hits half his homers on the road, and Werth hit more on the road…only Utley, of their big hitters, hit more at home.
Baseball reference is great for splits, by year or career.
Thanks Kingman. :)
I wish Lidge = Mitch Williams
hahaha! I wished that too! :( A boy can dream, right? LOL
This may sound a bit far-fetched, but Russel Martin possibly being on the trading block! What would he cost! He can catch and hit. Just a random thought…any thoughts about this?
Lol I read that report. The Dodgers trading Martin is hilarious to me, according to them he’s “just another catcher”. He’s a top 5 player at his position at 25 and they think he’s “just another catcher”.
I agree. It’s a bit farfetched, and it would be fitting if the Mets picked up another catcher from the Dodgers organization. LOL
No I actually don’t think it’s far-fetched at all, because I think the Dodgers current front office is pretty bad, I wouldn’t be shocked at them trading him. I just think it’s hilarious.
If they are dumb enough to consider him just another catcher and value him as such, lets make the trade happen asap before they realize what they have done.
I agree with both statements. I have always liked his play. He’s young and has plenty of talent. If they are stupid enough to trade him, Omar better be on that phone and trade some pieces. Hypothetically, if he was on the trading block what would the Dodgers ask?
i would like to have Martin too but ,if we cant get him, how about Molina from SF???
If you are a National League baseball fan and haven’t been sleeping for the past 3 years, how can you not love Russell Martin? He is the kind of player we have been looking for over the past 2 seasons….leader, winner, gritty, productive. I would certainly include Murphy in a deal for him.
Andruw Jones + Russell Martin = Show + Schneider + Evans or Carp???
Andruw Jones? I dunno about that. Doesn’t he have a hefty contract? I don’t know I would want him even if the Dodgers decided to eat the majority of that contract.
Martin is a Top 5 Catcher, he’s young and not only is good defensivly but he can hit. It would take a far greater package to obtain him than your suggestion.
I’d love to have him but I wouldn’t be willing to give up any of our guys (Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Murph, Maine, Pelfrey) for him. And, it would take at least one of those for a guy like Martin…IMO.
That’s why I threw Jones into the mix. They want him out of there desperately. He wants out of there desperately. We need a LF. He would only be for 1 year. They apparently don’t value him, so how much can we downgrade our package IF we take Jones off their hands?
Thats the only attraction of Jones..if he could bring us Martin. I’m not concerned they are shopping him…if he’s available and if we take on a horrible player in addition maybe we dont have to give up as much. And i could live with paying less in talent and more in money if we ended up cutting jones.
I would take Jones, Juan Pierre, Barry Zito, Stephon Marbury, and Bobby Bonilla if it meant getting Martin. He’s unbelievable.
Simon…I guess I am sold then! HAHAHA! Marbury, huh? LOL
Would you take Isiah too? :-)
Yes…throw all the headaches in for Martin! LOL. What about George Foster? LOL
We can trade the whole Islanders franchise, although Martin’s next long term contract will probably be worth more….and I’m an Islanders fan.
As long as you don’t touch my Devils, we are copacetic! LOL
The fact that they’re trying to trade him tells me they clearly don’t see him as as valuable as the rest of us do. For what reason I don’t know, but it might not cost as much as we think.
I’ve been wondering about you Gina. We need to get Jose dancing more, would you be willing to go down into the dugout after a few HR’s from time to time and dance with him to get him and the rest of the guys into it? Maybe he just needs a good dance partner?
1 yr, 18M and he wants out desperately so we might get some positive play out of him when he gets here. If not, the experiment is over after 1 year anyway. we need a LF and he can adequately play that position and it means we don’t hurt the farm one iota in the trade.
I just saw on MLBtraderumors that the Nats are looking for a cleanup hitter. Could we add them to our list of Delcrapo suitors in trade for bullpen help?
what bullpen arms would you want from them? To be honest I’m not a big fan of trades within the division.
That said, if Delgado is traded, he better be for a closer or a good bat…and the Nationals don’t have either that they’d trade.
What, you mean they’re unhappy with Lastings Milledge batting #4?
I just saw the note on the front about the Rockies thinking Heilman could be a starter. Can anyone here imagine him starting in Denver? What’s the Over/Under on the number of HR’s he gives up in his first home game? 7? 8?
Viva la humadora!
Why does Heyman say Eckstein turned down $25 million from the Mets? Is that true? If so, Eckstein and his agent have to be the biggest pair of idiots in baseball.
I’m not sure about the specific numbers involved, but the Mets did in fact pursue Eckstein before settling on Castillo. Eck turned the Mets down, bc he didn’t want to play 2nd Base.
I always thought that the Mets offered Eckstein a 1 year deal for like $5 million, and he wanted more years and more money. As much as I can’t stand Eckstein, I wish we signed him over The Mush last year.
Actually Omar had offers for him and Castillo at 3 years similar money. He turned it down because he did not want to play 2B. Either way they would both be terrible contracts. Eckencrappy was not very good either.
I said it on a previous thread and I’ll say it again. Why give Fuentes 3yrs/$39MM and not spend an extra $2MM per season for K-Rod? It doesn’t make any sense. K-Rod is younger and better than Fuentes…of course he deserves a longer deal. Wags will be off the books after next year anyway.
You read my mind, if you’re going to spend ELITE closer money doesn’t it make sense to give it to someone who actually IS AN ELITE CLOSER and not an average one like Fuentes?
Either sign K-Rod, or trade for a Street, Putz etc.
Signing Fuentes makes no sense
I agree. I don’t even want K-Rod for his asking price, but if the Mets want to sign Fuentes, then don’t be stupid – go the extra $2 MM per year and the extra two years, and get the better closer. Frigging Fuentes is 33, K-Rod is 26.
Glad I’m not the only “crazy” one. I personally don’t think Minaya has much interest in Fuentes. I think he would be a fallback option should Texas offer K-Rod $20MM per season (I wouldn’t put it past Hicks). But comparitively speaking, K-Rod is probably worth about $5MM-$7MM more per season than Fuentes. Fuentes’ great 2008 season notwithstanding.
Personally, I think the Mets leaked that they have “interest” in Fuentes to try and show that they have other options besides K-Rod
ding ding ding..we got a winner…half the bs we hear is most likely to prove we have other options…omar may very well sign krod but all this other crap is diversion tactis to lower our demand and need to sign krod to address our closer issue..which is no secret
Been talking about it for weeks. Omar’s #1 target this offseason is and will be Krod. Don’t believe anything else. He has always liked him and in a season in which the bullpen blew it again and you don’t have a closer AND one of the best in the game is available for cash? Right.
Yea you and me and a few others saw right through this….about time some people are catching on…
Agreed and have been saying it all along. It’s Krod or bust for closer. Either you get him or you think outside the box.
So you guys want to overpay for a closer just like we did with Wagner. 5 years 80 mln for this guy is ridiculous. While Wags had a poor stretch where he blew a few games in the 9th inning, he and Ayala were not the main problems. This team had no one to get them to the 9th inning and signing krod does not address that. Why not use the 80 mln or so to sign 2 or 3 relievers and get a bat and then try to trade for a possible closer.
I would limit Krod to 3 years.
“Lastly, according to Heyman, the Rockies and D’Backs and other teams still believe that Aaron Heilman can be starting pitcher.”
Does anybody think this means one of these teams might take Heilman off of our hands? We all know thats what the Mets fan want.
If all these teams really believe he can be a starter and are willing to give back some sort of value for him then I hope he’s not going to be in our bullpen next year. He may go somewhere else and has a Dempster like year but I just think there’s to much baggage here for him.
He has clearly lost all credibility as a “relief” pitcher seeing as he does not fit his job title. Ever since Game 7 in 2006 he’s been nothing but trouble and is the cause of many big opposing home runs and/or rallies.
If another team has faith that he can be a starting pitcher than God’s speed to them.
Oh my god!!!! I finally found you!!! My long lost brother!!!
Brother?
Doctor?
Unger-Oveur. Oveur-Unger. Unger-Dunn. Dunn-Oveur.
Guess he didn’t read your handle
This is good news as the Rockies and Dbacks both have parts we COULD use. Maybe Heilman can be a throw in.
That Dbacks trade of Castillo for Byrnes maybe comes back if you offer Heilman. Maybe you can put Heilman in with Fmart in a package for Holliday.
Castillo and Heilman for Byrnes would be the bum blockbuster trade of the offseason.
Since Martinez has lost some value along with the emergence of Wilmer Flores, it sounds like a great trade since we would get an established talent. Although his numbers might be inflated due to Coors Field. He would be a great addition to the middle of the lineup.
I think Heilmann can be a starter. Not that I am a ML team, so it doesn’t really matter! And yes, he could do it for the Mets.
The Jones angle (taking a bad contract back) is also intriquing. Yeah, he was horrible last year, but what the heck, he is young enough to maybe turn aroun? If not, 1 year and done.
basically, taking him is a way to pay $$$ for a good player instead of prospects. And I doubt Selig would let the mets “buy” martin from the Dodgers for 18million cash!
Lowe for 1-2 years maybe 9although I am not that big a fan). Wonder how he will fair against the Phils? Fuentes is also way too much money. Go with a collection of young power arms, and sift the closer out of the mix.
I actually think Tex would be a better idea for spending big money (change of heart here!). Plug Murphy at 2B (cheap!). If he works out, you have an awesome IF for years to come. Just deal with C and you are good to go. LF can be plugged for a year easily.
But, if they could somehow snag martin, you gotta do that.
I’d rather not take the chance. Heilman’s been ruining games for us since the 2006 playoffs.
oh yeah, for got one idea.
In 2008, it was really the set up guys that spit the bit. The Mets did have a closer. He just got hurt.
Joe Beimel and Juan Cruz. Next?
that was my answer until i found out cruz is a type A….im taking a loonger look at that one there..
If we’re signing other type A’s then he’s going to end up costing us a 2nd or third, depending on how many we sign. If we let Ollie walk and sign 3 type A’s then we’d lose our first,second, and third but gain another team, hopefully it depends on where he signs, first and a sandwich pick. So really unless Cruz is the only type A they sign he’s not going to cost more than a second round pick, which considering our recent drafting skills would probably be a pitcher with middle reliever upside.
good point gina as usual. I really think they should make a play for cruz but like you and so many others have said it depends on what other type A’s they plan to sign…theres just so many ways they can go this offseason. Like you said tho they cant address all the issues but they sure start to build their way this year.
That’s been my point all along with Cruz. If you sign any other type A then Cruz becomes a nonfactor. Sign Cruz and Garland and let Perez walk at you are even again. Then you can still sign another type A guy.
Actually, TRS, in that case when we sign Cruz (A) & Garland (B), and let Ollie go, we are net ahead. The B doesn’t cost us anything, we lose our first for signing an A and gain an A PLUS the supplemental pick. If we sign another A THEN we lose our second rounder, in which case we will have lost a 1st and a 2nd for a 1st and a supplemental 1/2. I’m warming up to this too…
im getting dizzy lol…
Amen dirty. Woosh.
If we let Perez walk, then we can sign as many Type A’s and B’s as we can afford, because he will replace the 1st AND 2nd picks we lose. It’s a no-brainer. Let someone else have Mr. Inconsistency and all the headaches he causes, and we’ll take their draft pick in return.
So does it really matter if Cruz is a Type A? Not really, because we are going out guns blazing this off season. K-Rod, and Cruz or Beimel would both be great. There is the 8th and 9th inning taken care of. There are enough players filing this year to sign 3 Type A players, so go get yourself a starting pitcher (Lowe?) to replace OP and then we can go from there.
You’re right, it doesn’t matter what picks we lose, Ollie will replace them. I think he should sign with the Padres. We get some top draft picks and they get a good(but inconsistent) pitcher.
My dream offseason:
Delgado, Heilman, Carp for Putz
Sign Garland for 7,500,000/ 5 yrs
Sign Lowe for 12,000,000/ 3yrs
Sign Affedlt for 3,750,000/ 3 yrs
Sign Beimel for 2,000,000/ 2 yrs
Sign Cordero for 4,500,000/ 1 yr
Sign Cruz for 4,500,000/ 4 yrs
Trade Schoenweis and Feliciano for Gregg(maybe have a Marlins throw-in if it seems ine sided)
Trade Castillo for Byrnes(unlikely IMO)
Sign Teixeira for 12,000,000/ 6 yrs
I’m sure that this will not happen. But it could be somewhat close. There are other variations to this, but I’m not posting them.
There would be about an 8 million payroll increase, but we’re getting an extra 20 mil a year. We can handle it.
Losmets, I agree it’s a dream offseason but I think Tex will get closer to 22 mil per year than 12.
Also, 5 years for Garland is a whole lotta mediocrity. I’d go 3 years max for Garland.
Who are the two holdovers you want for the pen? I count 5 new faces in the pen, who do you keep?
I want to keep Feliciano and Smith. As you can see in the offseason, I traded Feliciano. I also wouldn’t mind keeping Stokes. I didn’t really give this plan much thought, but 22 mil for Tex? I dpn’t think he’d ask for THAT much. I do think 12 mil is soooo not gonna happen.
No, I understand this was a dream scenario. Just wondering who else you’d keep. I do think you’re underestimating what Tex is going to get.
Tex for 12 million isn’t close. I doubt Garland and Lowe for those prices are either. Garland will at least cost double digits, I’d imagine between 10-12 million, Tex will probably cost like 20-23 million and Lowe’s asking price is supposed to be between 16-18 million.
Lowe can dream all he wants, but he’s not getting 16-18 million. The only way he’ll get that annually is if he sacrifices years. Players at his age usually don’t do this because they don’t even know if they’ll be in the game a few years from now. Guaranteed money is what matters to them. Lowe will probably get 13-14 million a year for 3 or 4 years. However, I do agree about Texeira. Sabathia and Manny will likely cost in the same ballpark.
The only problem with all this talk about draft picks and letting Ollie walk is it depends on who signs him. I’m pretty sure the top 15/16 draft picks are protected, so we would only get a supplemental.
Gina, we’d get a second in that case I believe? Which is still something.
That is true. Probability would say the most competitive teams would sign him though. Usually the teams in the top 15 records spend more than the bottom. I think we’ll see teams like the Yankees, Dodgers & Brewers taking a look at him. Re-signing him would be the better option as a tie breaker, but a lot of things will factor into this I guess. If he’s a Met next season, I won’t be disappointed. If he gets a ridiculous group though, I will. He might get a deal similar to K-Rod’s looking at. And K-Rod would give us more of what we need.
The best option may be to trade for Vazquez. We’d give up prospects or lower picks. We may get high or low picks back for Ollie that’d help compensate what we’d lose on signing K-Rod or Fuentes. And possibly Hudson.
4 years may be too much for Lowe. For 4 years, the investment of Oliver Perez at a similar price would be more worth it. I say this because he’s younger and less likely to get injured because of it. He’s also left-handed and does well against the teams we need him too. I say offer Lowe 3 years/39 million. If it takes a 4th, don’t offer him much more on the fourth.
Regardless of what SP we sign, it’s true that the draft pick situation will remain similar. In fact, we may do better if Perez goes to say Texas. What’ll cost us picks is K-Rod or Fuentes. We need this though. We need a stopper. There’s too many question marks circling around Fuentes. I don’t like that he’s been knocked out of the closing role before. I don’t like that he’s 33. I like that K-Rod’s 27. I know he may not give us 62 saves, but he’ll still do pretty damn good.
K-Rod and Fuentes may not get all that much different annually. My guess is 3 million. It’s the one extra year. I’d hesitate more at the idea of giving him 5 years. We all know the Angels won’t though. So who else is out there to give him the cash who doesn’t have a closer? I wouldn’t depend on St. Louis or Arizona.
Arizona doesn’t want Castillo. They’re thinking with their brains. And for what it’s worth, I really don’t want Byrnes. I know Pierre has less power, but you’d at least know what you’re getting there. Although I’d hate the idea of bringing Jose Guillen into our clubhouse, who do you think would have higher trade value come deadline time? Castillo or Guillen? So maybe it’s not a necessity to get an Orlando Hudson at 2B. But it is a necessity to get rid of Luis Castillo. As it Heilman & Schoenweis.
30 million off the payroll. Trade Heilman, trade Schoenweis. Add 15 million to the payroll the same way how they raised the payroll 12% last season. Do all this and we have 50 million to spend.
Sign K-Rod. He’s the only true stopper out on the FA market. This will cost 15 million. From there, build a bridge. Sign reliable guys. Sign one of Dennys Reyes or Beimel on the left-handed side. These guys have had three good years in a row. If you want to give less years, go for Rhodes. Or Affeldt. On the right-handed side, sign one of Cruz, Weathers or Springer. I’d probably go with Weathes because he’s pitched here, he’s proven and would only get 2 years at max. Maybe this cost 7 or 8 million combined?
There’s still a lot to use beyond that. Sign one of Lowe, Perez or Garland at 13 or 14 million a year. I think the better option may be to trade for Vazquez who only has 2 years at 11.5 million in each of the next two seasons. He’s had at least 32 starts and 198 innings in every year in this decade. And never an ERA higher than 4.42 in the NL. The White Sox want to trade him.
Still after all those three moves, we’d still have like 14 million to spend. Maybe we trade Castillo for Guillen, Byrnes or Pierre? If it’s Guillen, the payroll rises by 6 million next season. It really wouldn’t even be necessary to spend what’s left over unless they wanted to make a pitch for Sabathia instead of Perez or Lowe.