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Read: Keith Law’s Top 50 Free Agents
By Matthew Cerrone - Nov 17, 2008 11:35 am

In what is a must-read article, at ESPN.com, Keith Law ranks the Top 50 Free Agents for this off-season.

Keep in mind, as Tim Dierkes pointed out at MLB Trade Rumors, Law has proven to be very astute in his predictions, noting in 2006 that Barry Zito should be regarded as only a third starter.

Interestingly, this time around, Law ranks A.J. Burnett ahead of Derek Lowe, who is ranked ahead of Ryan Dempster, who is ranked ahead of Oliver Perez.

In terms of closers, Law’s top free-agent closer is Kerry Wood, of whom he writes, “However, for a one-inning, shutdown closer, you’re not going to do much better than Wood if you can stomach the health risk.”

In Law’s opinion, after Wood, Jeremy Affedlt is the next best available closer, who is immediately followed by Francisco Rodriguez, who is ranked ahead of Brian Fuentes.

Law has the following to say about Rodriguez:

“He’s sitting 91-93 mph now with good life, but his once-devastating slider is far less sharp, and he pitches much more off his fastball than he did before… Among players likely to get contracts of four years or longer, K-Rod probably represents the greatest risk of a flameout.”

…i am torn on wood…i like the idea of him, but i totally afraid of his arm, health, etc…i feel it is too much of a risk to have him as your closer, for fear of seeing the Mets end up in essentially the exact same situation they were at the end of 2008…

…the buzz in baseball seems to suggest the Rangers, Mets and Tigers could be among teams who show interest in wood

However, according to Peter Gammons at ESPN.com, the Rangers would need to trade Hank Blalock to afford Wood.

51 Responses to “Read: Keith Law’s Top 50 Free Agents”

  1. Gina says:

    I’m intrigued by Milton Bradley.

    • HOFMets57 says:

      No thanks. Another LH bat with no defense and high attitude.

      • Gina says:

        He’s also a type B free agent, won’t cost a draft pick, and if nothing else a better option than Ibanez who they’ve shown interest in.

        • HOFMets57 says:

          Look at this lineup, for a second.

          1. Reyes L
          2. Castillo L
          3. Wright R
          4. Delgado L
          5. Beltran L
          6. Bradley L
          7. Church L
          8. Castro R
          9. P

          We sign Bradley and the 3 of the top 5 LH relievers will be gobbled up by our NL East competitors.

        • Markiss87 says:

          Bradley is a switch hitter buddy

        • Gina says:

          Beltran and Reyes are switch hitters.Beltran hits lefty way way better than he hits rightys and Reyes hits them equally.

          1. Castillo-L- since the only thing he’s good for is getting on base, hopefully he won’t be in the line-up at all and from here he hopefully won’t be able to hit into as many double plays.
          2. Reyes-S
          3. Beltran-S
          4. Delgado-L
          5. Wright-R
          6. Bradley- L
          7. Church- L
          8. Castro-R
          9. Pitcher

          not to mention that’s why you have pinch hitters. Or you could always platoon Bradley and Tatis if it really worries you that much.

      • beltran the warrior says:

        milton bradley is a switch-hitter.

        • ksuth says:

          as are Reyes, Castillo, and Beltran

        • ArmandoReynoso says:

          Milton Bradley also can’t play the field (or stay in the lineup, for that matter)… here’s his Games Played and ABs for the last 4 years…

          2005: 75 games, 283 ab
          2006: 96, 351
          2007: 61, 209
          2008: 126 (only 24 in the field, 102 as DH), 414

          Even Keith Law states in the article “The real problem with Bradley is that he can’t seem to stay healthy. His 2008 season was marred by injuries, all minor, to his knee, back, quad and wrist, yet he still had the second highest at-bat and games played totals of his career.

          He probably can’t play the field, for fear he’ll hurt himself, and he’d be limited to left field if he could.”

        • ksuth says:

          so it would look like this:

          1. Reyes – S
          2. Castillo – S
          3. Wright – R
          4. Beltran – S
          5. Delgado – L
          6. Bradley – S
          7. Church – L
          8. Castro – R
          9. P

        • ArmandoReynoso says:

          Kinda sounds like the guy who was supposed to our LF last year, I think his name was Moises Alou?

        • HitTheSinkerBall says:

          Bradley cant stay of the DL when he is the DH, how do you expect that he will stay healthy playing the OF

      • therealsince86 says:

        How can we take things seriously when you can’t even do the research to find out what he bats?

    • SimulatedGameMVP says:

      And I’m intrigued by Barry Bonds. For real.

  2. MeesesGlokmah says:

    I’m still hopeful that we get either K-Rod or Fuentes. According to MetsMerized, citing a 1050 ESPN article, “The Mets have also been promised by the both the representatives of K-Rod and Brian Fuentes that they would be given the chance to match or top any offer they deem acceptable from other teams.”
    I hope this is true.

    (Sorry if old news, or if it isn’t news at all)

    • HOFMets57 says:

      Glad to see Omar doing it the correct way…

      Unlike a Mr. ‘Cashman’ who throws a GOB of money at a FA with no regard to market value…

      • LNBGS says:

        If they have a starting rota of : cc wang burnett lowe joba and then still dont make playoffs that would be great.

    • MetLifer says:

      Isn’t this a given? You wouldn’t be a good agent if you didn’t field last chance offers.

  3. Lightweis says:

    All this talk about Kerry Wood, but has anyone heard if Mark Prior is working out for teams, or even trying to play again for that matter??

    • mark4212 says:

      I believe Prior is still under contract with the Padres. He was last year from what i heard. I don’t know much else. He signed a minor league contract with them last year, a 2 year deal because he wasn’t going to be ready to start the year last season.

      If the mets do intend to sign Wood, then signing someone like Cruz or Affedlt to be the 8th inning guy/backup closer is a MUST. Even if you overpay for him. Or trade fr a putz for the 8th inning/backup closer.

      I don’t always agree with these guys. These are the people who said Johan lost it. And it was showing in the first half as he was cruising and shutting teams down day in and out to about 2 er’s.

      So i don’t know what to think about k-rod. Maybe he will be a liability maybe he will be a star.

    • I wouldn’t mind Wood on a 2 yr deal to be our 5th starter.

  4. tical1334 says:

    I think Wood has the best “stuff” and his stats last year are solid, but does anyone else find it odd the Cubs never even made an attempt to keep him? Its not like they are a small market.

    • shea_guevara says:

      I think like the Angels + K-Rod, the Cubs believe they have some pretty good internal options to replace Wood. Maybe they figure they can use someone like Samardzjia or Marmol as their closer next year, and keep that money for more pressing needs.

      • Gina says:

        They traded their best internal option in Cena. And I think Samardzjia is considered a starting prospect who just happened to be most useful in the bullpen last year. He’s not a long-term option their.

    • Gina says:

      The Cubs are in a tricky situation. They’re all ready loaded down with several expensive contracts, and a few of them are pretty bad, and they’re kind of in ownership limbo, their owners want to sell but they can’t because of the current state of the economy. Adding more big contracts is just going to make it harder for their current owners to find a buyer. That’s why they way way overpaid for Gregg, in terms of prospects, because they really can’t spend anymore cash.

      • its hard to be a met fan says:

        Agreed….most teams’ bullpens are not their major focus this offseason save the Mets and Tigers….that said, most teams would rather use the $10M or so on an everyday player or a starting pitcher

        • ArmandoReynoso says:

          Yeah, their priority was signing Dempster (considering they have Marmol, and Samardzjia — and now Gregg), they had to cut someone loose, and Wood is the odd man out.

  5. its hard to be a met fan says:

    I think either K-rod or Fuentes would do a fine job for the Mets, but I think Wood would give the Mets what Lidge gives the Phils…..a “feared” closer, which honestly the Mets have never had….Wood is an injury risk, no doubt, but pitching 65 – 70 innings per year is far less of a risk than pitching 180 – 200 innings….I also think Wood would take 2 – 3 years for $10M per year

    • I wouldn’t call Wood a “feared” closer. I think Papelbon, Gagne in his one year, Nathan, and Mariano are feared closers. Not sure Wood is there yet.

      • its hard to be a met fan says:

        you’re missing my point….he has “feared stuff”…he obviously does not have the resumes of the closers you mentioned…last I heard none of those closers are available to Mets either

        • I know what you mean…but I don’t think he has feared stuff. Brad Lidge has that slider that falls off the table. That’s the same pitch that Joba used so effectively and why he was a feared reliever.

          I don’t think Kerry Wood is that. But we can disagree on that. The guys I mentioned may not all have feared stuff, but they are lockdown closers. I would rather have K-Rod closing games for me than Kerry Wood. If I were to make a run at would, it would be with the intention of getting him ready to be a 5th starter.

  6. tonym says:

    “The Cubs are in a tricky situation. They’re all ready loaded down with several expensive contracts”

    Including Soriano’s horrible deal, the back-end of that is gonna make Castillo’s look like a bargain.

    • stickguy says:

      Pet peeve of mine. Castillos deal was (and is) not horrible because of the $$. it was, and is, the 4 years! Castillo at $6million is still relatvie chump change compared to an albatross like Soriano.

      • I agree it’s the years that get to most people. However, for his production he is definitley overpaid. Even if he hits his roof this year, he is still overpaid.

        Problem is, instead of eating $6MM to buy him out, we need to give him $18MM. I wish Houston got him and we brought back Kaz. At least he gave me the impression that he tried.

    • My Favorite Baseball Squadron says:

      As bad as the reputational damaged the Mets have sustained these past couple of years, the Cubs help take away the sting of feeling like the biggest underachievers in the league. Ok, they made playoffs and won their division the past 2 years but they still have the ghosts of 1908 to deal with and they looked absolutely pitiful in the playoffs this year.

      When near 40 year old Jim Edmonds is your best OF, you have problems. Soriano’s contract is an albatross and he has always shrank away in the post season. Fukudome rode a storybook MLB debut and a decent first 40 or so games for most of an otherwise disappointing rookie season, covered the team’s success.

      It all came together for the Cubbies this season and they flopped when it mattered most. Players like DeRosa and Theriot played a bit over their heads. I wouldn’t complain too much about ARam and Derek Lee, although the latter had his problems in the playoffs then again who didn’t from that team.

      And that’s not even mentioning Ryan Dempster having a career year. Zambrano is a bit too volatile to be compared to the other aces in the league and I’d start to think h3ll has frozen over if Harden makes even 25 starts a year.

      What’s baffling though is they can still win the NL Central next year almost out of default. Although it’s so tough to count out the Cards because they always take mediocre talents and get them to play above expectations. Without CC and Sheets and maybe even Prince Fielder, the Brew Crew better have savored their playoff cameo from last year. And the Pirates and Reds will provide something to do in their cities during that 5 or 6 month break between Steelers and Cavs seasons respectively.

    • Gina says:

      they also still owe Fukudome 41 million over the next 3 years.

  7. Why is no one discussing Affeldt? This guy is solid year in and year out, and would be a great fit in our bullpen, I think.

  8. stickguy says:

    I grab Wood for a 2 year deal if possible (ooptions years are fine to cover the teams exposure).

    As someone else pointed out, just make sure to have 1-2 other guys that can step up to replace him.

    Affeldt seemed to get love from Law. If they can add him too, it would be a solid pair of moves.

    You can hang onto some combo of stokes/parnell for long man or swing duty. Smith for what he does.

    beyond that, another lefty maybe, and round out with 1-2 guys that can pitch the 6/7/8 innings, and get L and R batters out.

    Sanchez, etc.

    IOWs, a normal BP for any team other than the Mets!

  9. zen says:

    i’d sign k-rod, beimel (1 hr, beltran, allowed in 2 years), and cruz.

    • I’m a big fan of beimel. I agree with your acquisitions here. Everything else can be done via trade….hopefully.

    • jaydh says:

      2nd, those are 3 i listed earlier in the offseason.

    • gomets019 says:

      yea. And schowenweis was nearly as stingy in the home run dept. BEFORE HE GOT HERE! If Biemel comes cheap, maybe. But if his price is even half of what Darren Oliver will command I’ll take Oliver. How many times did Oliver bail out John Maine in 06? We could use him again this year with Maine coming off surgery.

  10. mookie says:

    I say sign wood. He’s not going t cost that much because other clubs are going to be afraid to give him a lot. Adding him with rodriguez= dominant. If anything it gives that extra insurance if we don’t like what K-rod has to offer.
    Rodriguez
    wood
    parnell
    Holt
    smith
    now thats a great bullpen in the making.

  11. mookie says:

    I know wood is looking for a lot of money, but lets face it. He might not get it if teams are not interested. A lot of teams are afraid of his injuries, and we might be able to get him for cheap, for at least a year or two. I wouldn’t mind signing him for a two year 15 mil contract.