Links: VORP, Hater, Wright, and Castillo

November 26, 2008 at 13:32 pm · 33 comments

by Regis Courtemanche

Ken Davidoff at Newsday posts his second annual “overrated and over-hated 2008″ list which includes Willie Randolph (overrated) and Carlos Beltran (over-hated).

At Amazin’ Avenue, the saber-minded Eric Simon lists Mets VORP leaders through the years. For more on VORP, go here.

…this kind of thing must take forever to do…

The Virginian-Pilot has a video of David Wright doing charity work with kids on Tuesday.

Lastly, Rich Coutinho at ESPN thinks Luis Castillo deserves a second chance here in New York, writing: “There is too much pedigree in Castillo for me to throw dirt on him now. He seems to be contrite about his poor season while at the same time, he appears to be hungry to be an integral part of the 2009 Mets. I think he deserves a second chance in this town and he may just surprise us all.”

…if the mets keep him, i pray to god you are right rich, for his sake and for ours…

{ 33 comments }

LNBGS November 26, 2008 at 1:40 pm

stopped reading at heilman being over-hated.

nrmax88 November 28, 2008 at 2:42 pm

Of course, why would you read anything that doesn’t exactly fit your biased attitude? I mean, you must be better off being uninformed then being open minded and, oh, I don’t know. Examining the things that matter, instead of blindly following a pack of idiots who hate Heilman because they don’t understand how to evaluate a player. And oh yeah, we all know you didn’t stop reading, you read the whole thing, so just save it.

mrBill aka DWright November 26, 2008 at 1:41 pm

David Wright: OVERRATED!!!!!!

Carlos Delgado: OVERRATED!!!!!!

Jerry Manuel: OVERRATED!!!!

To summarize, the whole Mets team: OVERRATED!!!!!

hjhjhjhjhj November 26, 2008 at 1:51 pm

do you ever have anything else to say?

BBmetsfreak36 November 26, 2008 at 1:44 pm

I was always a fan of Castillo and thought he was perfect tandem with Jose Reyes in the order and on the feild. But once his knees act up and can’t hit a ball farther than my 8 year old cousin, is when people feel they must boo him out of town. So naturally I believe if Murphy if he is equipt to learn 2nd considering he’s a natural infeilder while sharing time with a vetern preasance such as David Eckstien in a platoon like situation. But after seeing Castillo’s skills inproving after the surgery even though numbers don’t show it to go along with Omars reluctance to trade him, mabe he’s the type of guy that needs to share time with Murphy.

SovereignRonnie November 26, 2008 at 1:45 pm

You lost me at “Eckstein.”

Gina November 26, 2008 at 2:12 pm

Even with his high OBP Castillo’s doesn’t belong in anyone’s two spot. The only places he should hit are 9th or 1st. Somewhere where he isn’t going to come up with many runners on base, because we have better hitters for those situations, because he can’t hit for any kind of power.

Ceetar November 26, 2008 at 2:27 pm

It’s a fallacy that a team _must_ hit home runs with runners in scoring position. liner to short right works too. This team isn’t a home run team, and they don’t need to put that kind of pressure on themselves, just get hits. (Which Castillo did, with a high RISP avg.)

Gina November 26, 2008 at 2:40 pm

Who said anything about homers? I want someone who can get the ball out of the infield. If a guy hits .250 with RISP but all those hits go for extra bases and a guy hits .300 but all those hits are singles who is more likely to get the runner in/ put him in a position to score. Adam Dunn hit like .240 with RISP but he got as many runners in and scored as many runs himself as Derek Jeter, who hit over .300 with RISP. The idea that avg with RISP matter is more of a fallacy.

Gina November 26, 2008 at 2:44 pm

Also fwiw I know I used Dunn but I mean I’d rather have a guy like Beltran or Reyes coming up with RISP, because they have line drive power, which Castillo doesn’t at all. Only 15% of the balls Castillo put in play were linedrives, which is probably pretty close to the worst in the league for someone with as many at bats as he had. That’s someone you absolutely don’t want coming up with RISP. Beltran and Reyes and Wright are the kind of guys you’re actually talking about with line drive to the gaps power.

JamesK November 26, 2008 at 1:48 pm

Regis,

Those stats don’t take long to do. It’s quite simple actually, if you take the short time to learn it rather than rejecting it because its not batting average or RBI. Another in the long line of ignorant, anti-stats posts from MetsBlog.

toomanyuniforms November 26, 2008 at 4:13 pm

WOW. You’ve got to be seriously prickly to read Regis’ comment that way. If they were truly “anti-stats”, would they even post the frigging link??? Face it — a lot of perfectly smart, perfectly baseball-savvy people are not slavishly obsessed with VORP. It’s an interesting composite stat and an admirable way to try to take a lot of different factors into account to isolate individual performance (which is ultimately artificial.) Go get some fresh air and stop whining.

metsftw November 26, 2008 at 6:10 pm

no one is slavishly obsessed with VORP. “baseball savvy” people understand its limitations and realize that it needs to be combined with other stats in order to gain a more accurate picture of individual performance (artificial? come on.)

however, there are far too many people who are “slavishly obsessed” with RBI and batting average.

toomanyuniforms November 26, 2008 at 7:06 pm

No argument there, especially when they even seem to infect RAWLINGS(TM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) Gold Glove voting, but you have to admit, linking to a site discussing historical VORPs (and the Baseball Prospectus glossary for the curious and uninitiated,) and suggesting calculating VORPs might have involved a lot of work, is not “anti-stat,” whatever that means.

JamesK November 26, 2008 at 7:20 pm

toomanyunis,

My comment was a result of the ongoing rejection of any kind of statistical analysis here. It seems all we ever hear about are player’s “clubhouse demenaor” and “chemistry” and “leadership”, etc. There was a post a few weeks back suggesting the Mets need to focus on improving their chemistry this offseason – it was ridic.

This instance isn’t too egregious, I admit. Maybe they’ll come around.

metsftw November 27, 2008 at 2:13 am

agreed with both of you–this post didn’t have an anti-stat bias at all, but regis and other writers (except the guy that did the division roundup, whatever his name is) have certainly shown an aversion to advanced metrics in the past.

while we’re at it–amazin’ avenue is a great blog. it’s too bad eric doesn’t have more time to update it, even though he manages to do it almost once a day. if he had the free time cerrone does, i can’t even imagine the content on there. mindblowing.

nrmax88 November 28, 2008 at 2:45 pm

Haha, so true James. So true. At least somebody realizes.

ExileInLA November 26, 2008 at 1:50 pm

Wait — that guy with the big, long contract wants a second chance? He’s old. He’s slow. He can’t field his position. He’s never gonna hit the way he used to. He just drags down that whole side of the outfield.

Dump him immediately. For a bag of balls. Ok, skip the balls. I’ll settle for a grocery store plastic bag in trade.

“Castillo” is the 2009 Delgado.

CaseStreet November 26, 2008 at 2:10 pm

If he does as well in the 2nd half of the season, I’ll take it.

One Day This Team Will Kill Me November 26, 2008 at 4:02 pm

somehow I dont see Castillo playing pepper with the scoreboard at Shea for half a season and driving in over 100 runs…just a hunch

toomanyuniforms November 26, 2008 at 4:14 pm

Actually, I think they should unload Delgado. They’re very fortunate that they can probably manage more than a bag of balls for him. Are you listening Orioles/Jays?

guierllNO MOta November 26, 2008 at 2:06 pm

I personally believe that a healthy Castillo is our best option @ 2B…he’s got a chip on hi shoulder and the other 2B out there are either over-rated or worse than a HEALTHY Castillo

However, the issue is, is Castillo healthy? Will he ever be? I doubt it, this has been 3 yeas in a row he hasn’t….that is the issue, healthy Castillo is one of the top 2B out there, but he won’t ever be healthy.

Gina November 26, 2008 at 2:35 pm

I would disagree a lot. Grudzenski, i definitely just spelled that wrong, is definitely a better option. There are a few better options most of them are just really old so they wouldn’t be anymore of a long-term solution than Castillo.

There's Always '09 November 26, 2008 at 2:56 pm

Grudzielanek. I believe that’s it. Didn’t use google or wiki, but it’s my best guess.

Philnym31 November 26, 2008 at 2:30 pm

I have a name that hasn’t been mentioned here. How about signing Omar Vizquel for the bench? He’s an old timer, but the man can still play the game. He started the year off slowly after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery in spring training. He did rebound though to hit .304 after the All-Star break and defensively, Vizquel, despite his old age, still is a phenomenal fielder out there. He’d probably provide us some insurance at second base and could even help keep Reyes fresh at times. And, I’m sure given his reputation, he’d be a great addition for the clubhouse. It has the makings for a tremendous under the radar move.

JamesK November 26, 2008 at 7:09 pm

Omar Vizquel is old and terrible. He was worse than Argenis Reyes in 2008. He put up a .222/.283/.267 line.

The fact that the Giants gave him even 300 PA’s is unfathomable. His D is still good, but not good enough to justify playing him. There’s a reason no one is talking about him – he’s just not a good player anymore.

guierllNO MOta November 26, 2008 at 2:37 pm

Will Omar Vizquel come to NY to be a backup is the question….

I say NO, cause he wont come here to play in the 2 games Reyes doesnt start a year…and even in his old age he’s still a top defensive SS he owont want to play 2B

Joe Bacci November 26, 2008 at 2:53 pm

umm, that would be God, Regis.

Slob November 26, 2008 at 3:44 pm

Only if he actually believes in that sort of thing.

Regis Courtemanche November 26, 2008 at 7:43 pm

Well played, Slob

Deadpanwalking November 27, 2008 at 11:25 am

Oh come on, Heilman is treated like Darth Vader in New York, nobody is that bad. Having said that, I wish him well at his next team. Beltran is definitely over-hated, he was an all-star. However, it’s weird to have so many all-star caliber if not hall-of-fame players on a non-playoff team. It sort of makes fans nervous.

Gina November 27, 2008 at 2:28 pm

Thats what happens when you fill in crap around stars.

elephants November 27, 2008 at 2:17 pm

For all of the fans who think that the Mets are “over-hated”, read
The Bad Guys Won (Book of the 1986 Mets team).
Look, the Mets will never be liked in the NL.
So what?
Sign the closer we need (Krod) and trade for Street (goodbye Heilman!), 2 starters (Lowe and Wolf) and for once in a long time, make the right decision and sign MANNY. Sign Mark Loretta as a utility – backup player. Marlon Anderson (as the lefty PHer)
Can you imagine the lineup (not in this order, but these players)of:
Reyes
Castillo
Beltran
Wright
Delgado
Manny
Church
Schnieder
Bench:
Tatis
Murphy
Loretta
Anderson
Castro
Staff:
Santana
Maine
Pelfry
Wolf
Lowe
Pen:
Krod
Street – 25 years YOUNG
Feliciano – still needed to get leftys only out!
Schowenweis – nobody will take him in a trade :(
Stokes – this guy will be a stud this year. The new Sanchez
Sanchez -
Then you rotate rookies – Parnell, Niese, Kunz throughout the season and see which one develops.
If you don’t like this last option, then go out and get Oliver back.
I am sick of hearing the Mets can’t afford a closer, pitching, etc.
Last year the Yankees spent OVER 350 Million dollars in FA signings or resigning their own players (Rivera, Posada and Aron cost them over 300 million alone).
The Mets need to stop thinking like the “second city” team in NY.
Stop worrying about being “hated” by other teams.
Satrt worrying about scoring so many runs in a game that starters like Maine don’t have to worry about giving up 3-4 runs and losing or having to be pin-point perfect for wins.
Krod signing not only shores up the pen, but sends a message to Lowe and Wolf that they can win 15 plus games BECAUSE the mets HAVE a closer.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Omar, get to work!

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