In a post to MetsGeek, Mike Newman takes a look at Mets minor leaguers Shawn Bowman, Dylan Owen and Josh Thole, and asks if they are ‘prospects or 
pretenders,’ since, ‘the likelihood of any of these players becoming more than role players is slim.’
It does feel like the term prospect is thrown around a lot. I mean, they can’t all be prospects, as that would defeat the purpose. In reality, most of these guys are just minor-league baseball players, who may or may not sniff the big leagues one day, let alone become big-time players.
This is why I tend to only put stock in to elite prospects, and do not typically concern myself with every player in the system, because it inevitably will just not matter.
For more on Thole, check out Mets Minor League Blog, where Toby Hyde talks with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus about the young catcher.
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i know this isnt on topic of this…but i hope boras doesnt plan on talking to the dodgers first before he goes into talks with teams about lowe..because we can be in for a long process
i mean talking to the dodgers about manny obviously by the way
Well, if the Dodgers are serious about Dunn, then I would think it would be in Boras’ best interests to talk to the Dodgers about Manny right now. Because if they sign Dunn, then Manny could be hung out to dry and forced to accept a discounted deal.
yeah…with the mets..lol
Bowman is the one of the 3 that actaully looks to have the talent to be special. Too bad it is quite liekly that his injury issues might prevent him from ever achieving much success.
In addition to his injuries he’ll have to also overcome the fact that he’s never hit as a professional. A 242/302/403 line in the lower levels is far from impressive.
With the exception of a 97 at bat sample this season, he’s never shown the ability to hit.
Matt is correct though. Every team has a bunch of intergangeable parts in their systems. So the key is figuring out which ones (at an early stage of development) are the “special” ones that you hang onto.
Or sometimes you just get lucky, and when one pops to the surface, he is still in your system!
if I had the talent to only make the minor leagues and knew I would get no further, I would play there anyway. for as long as I could, like Crash Davis (Bull Durham).
Oh WE GOT JOSH THOLE!!! Guess we don’t need Saltalamaccia or Teagarden….Pffft!!
I’m unsatisfied with that Pffft!….I’d also like to add an additional upside down, two hands to the lips, and blow as hard as I can…..
A lot of Mets Minor Leaguers get a bad wrap, and then produce…I mean, look at Heath Bell, right? I can’t believe this guy is actually a Mets fan..way to hype up the talent….what a D bag.
Heath Bell absolutely produced in the minors. He just got hit by bad luck in the majors and the front office gave up on him way too quickly. Which is one of the problems you run into when you only look at surface stats. advanced stats definitely predicted Bells major league success.
Gina…I argued my head off on the Mets message board before I got banned for the Mets to keep Heath Bell….I don’t just look at stats….any and all stats can be deceiving….
Wasn’t Reese Havens supposed to convert to being a cather? What kind Of year did he have?
Yes, but he was injured and only DH’d a few times as he was unable to throw.
I think there’s a possibility he can convert to catcher because he has caught before. But I think the plan is to leave him at SS for the foreseeable future.
a cathader…oh my gosh!
I think you need to look up the definition of the word “prospect” — yes, they’re all prospects. But some of their prospects just aren’t very good.
haha.. that was my exact first thought…
prospect: the possibility of future success
hence they are all prospects, even if that possibility is far less likely for most. With that said, I do agree with the main point of the post. Who cares about the lesser prospects, most of them will just be failed prospects. Bring on the elites…
the problem is we don’t have very many, if any, elites. so they have to talk up these other guys. then fans go crazy about them and think they’re the second coming.
I usually don’t like to make comments like that, but the way that paragraph is written really makes the misunderstanding stand out.
I do agree with what he meant to an extent, too, but when Mike Piazza can go in the 67th round as a favor to his godfather, you know this scouting thing isn’t an exact science. They’re all prospects until they retire. Let the kids play the games.
Josh Thole has the best shot of sticking in the big leagues awhile out of this particular 3. Bowman’s been treading water forever in the Mets system. Many moons ago, he was hyped to be a half step behind David Wright on the 3B prospect list. Now he’s in a different universe… in a bad way. Should be out of the system as a minor league FA soon. Owen’s been getting it done without any special stuff, just good enough stuff with good control. Should be interesting to see if he hits a wall in AA this year.
I still like Thole. I don’t know what the odds are of him becoming a decent defensive catcher, but if he does, I’d take his patience at the plate over Scheider’s groundouts to first or Castro’s occasional homerun, 10 times out of 10 and for a tenth the price.
you do realize that Thole is about 3 years away from the big (if he makes it at all)
3 years where are you getting that from? I’d imagine he’s more likely 1-2 years away, like possibly being a mid-late 2010 call-up, as-suming he’s ever good enough to make the bigs, not as a full time player likely but as a bench platoon/type player.
Yes, while I don’t claim to know anything at all specifically about Thole, I think that since he spent 2007 in low A and 2008 in high A, hopefully that progression trend continues and he’ll spend 2009 in AA and 2010 in AAA, until getting a September 2010 call up.
What’s that have to do with anything? My comment was simply that if Thole can become a competent defensive catcher, I would prefer his offensive production to what we have now. I like his on base skills.
Totally off topic here, but do any of you know any good websites for fantasy baseball keeper/dynasty/auction leagues? A friend of mine and I are interested in joining a new league that is run better than the one we are in at the moment. Preferably a league with an admission fee and payout.
Thanks in advance.
Got a date with Mr Johnny Walker Red….
hope ya all have a great night and we all have a healthy, playoff bound 2009!
Matt, fam, crew and fellow Mets nuts
HAPPY NEW YEARS !!!!!
Happy and Healthy New Year to Matt, his bloggers and to all my fellow Met fans.
2009 is our year. Let’s Go Mets!!
Some interesting news that the Nationals may be seriously interested in Milton Bradley. That would actually be a pretty significant signing for them. I would be shocked if they outbid the Cubs though.
happy new year matt regis and all the staff at mets blog and also to all of my fellow mets bretheren !! now lets get lowe btw its me rustyjr lol
i dont know what happened for the last 3 weeks my comments were awaiting moderation under my other alias but i am back and i promise guys ill work cleaner lol
guys as per mlbtr
Bill Ladson of MLB.com has been told by a baseball source that reports of the Nationals’ interest in Manny Ramirez are false.
Ladson notes two fairly obvious reasons why Manny isn’t a good fit in D.C.:
The Nationals are overloaded with right-handed hitting outfielders. They already have righties Josh Willingham, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena under contract for ‘08.
And the obvious one: His age. Ramirez is 36. The Nats won a league-low 59 games last season and need to build for the long-term before they go signing old, high-priced free agents with big egos.
we might be in it for manny after all especially if the dodgers go for dunn
I would much rather have Dunn than Ramirez.
Ehhh, I take it back. Dunn’s got youth, the ability to take over for Delgado at 1st, and the fact that we don’t give up a pick, so I still would probably prefer him; however, he’s nowhere near the offensive force Ramirez is.
“This is why I tend to only put stock in to elite prospects, and do not typically concern myself with every player in the system, because it inevitably will just not matter.”
Typical Metsblog. You run a baseball site, why actually know what you are talking about? I mean, inevitably, it doesn’t matter. Maybe that is why this site is such a piece of garbage. You better hope MLBTR stays up and running for a while, or you won’t have anybody to steal from anymore.
y r u even commenting on metsblog if u dont even like it, it would be in everyone’s best in trest if u stay at ur precious mlb traderumors
This is unfair. Matt is actually much more sensible about baseball than he was just a year or so ago. He used to be a big fan of Paul LoDuca’s grit, which would have placed him in the lowest common denominator of fandom. He is learning. This is just the next phase in his education. He will soon learn that Murphy was not an elite prospect, nor is Gee, nor is Thole; and any of those guys could become solid role players; and Murphy has limited All-Star potential.
For his next lesson Matt just has to learn that ERA is a silly stat and learn some better metrics, and he will almost be all set.
Nrmax… GET A LIFE YOU WORTHLESS TOOL. No one, and I mean no one, gives a rat’s @-ss about what you think or supposedly know.
It’s really pathetic that you post on this website even though you hate it so much. Oh shoot, Tim is waiting for you, I heard he wants to give you a “surprise”…(!)
But seriously, just f–k off, you whiny toad.
Matt,
Everyone in the minors IS a “prospect”. Prospect doesn’t just mean the good ones. The good ones are “highly rated” or “highly regarded” prospects.
ya gotta believe ya gotta believe in 09
happy new year everybody!
ya gotta believe
this year is our year
we crush the phillies we show the phillies why the heck we are still NL’s best.
11-7 against them isnt enough
we have to pound the nl east
spit in ther face
kick dirt in there eyes
grand slams
no blown saves
mets magic late
the hr apple rising every 30 sec
fans holding up santanas K’s
hits after hits after hits
blow out games
shut out games
no hitter games
3 hr in a game
In 09 i believe the mets are capable to do any thing and if you think the mets are “Ok”
then go check again…
“we are the team to beat”
now lets prove it
“ya gotta believe in 09″
-krodamet
The Spirit of ’86 needs to be revived in this franchise, by that I mean they need to stop forcing the outright neutering of personalities, this organization cares way to much what other teams think of us. Who cares if the Phillies or Marlins hate the Mets, what are they going to do beat the Mets and prevent them from making the playoffs, guess what that has been done two seasons in a row on the last day of the season and you know what it will continue to happen until the front office allows the players to be ballplayers instead of forcing them to be uptight stiffs like the corporate suits that will no doubt infest Citi Field in the up coming season.
happy new year guys…
Happy New Year everyone!
Happy New Year all!
Now, back to the Lowe saga. His signing doesn’t feel the slightest inevitable to me. Apparently, he laughed at $12m per for three years (see NY Post this morning).. And, what’s worse? Boras probably takes Ollie off the table if the Mets “anger” him.
I can’t watch a year of Johan, Pelf, Maine, Wolf, and Niese (maybe).
agree with u 100% casey and like i posted just now i’d be wary about bringing ollie back – he’s too much of a x-factor
first off happy new year guys !! secondly i hate when our team has to deal with boras – now there might be a “mystery team” in it for lowe – i know the offer we made was a starting point but i’d like to just find the common ground with lowe and sign him already cuz the idea of ollie and pedro or wolf and pedro or neise doent scare me if im a visiting team anyway time to drink some hair of the dog
know this, even signing lowe is not the answer for the mets to get to the WS. that answer is MANNY. and anyone who thinks the current lineup can get there, they are wrong. the older slumpilicious delgado, uppercut swing wright, statue beltran, dizzy church…..not enough. hear me now, believe me in october.
Good to see you are up early in the new year, and staying “on point” with your message.
But, if the rest of the line up is so bad, just adding Manny isn’t going to help. Especially if it means they don’t add any better SPs.
Manny comes to NY, hits 120 homers and drives in 120 runs, right Manny guys?
the rotation is very important. but omar cannot ignore the bats. and schlubs like dunn and abreau would make no difference.
Did anyone notice that mets.com put up the new jerseys for 09 and they have the inagural patch…notice that the black away jersey is no where in site, i think that means that one is officially retired.
It is not looking good at all on the Lowe front. I’m not sure that we end up with Lowe or Perez. I’m thinking that we’ll end up with something like Wolf and Pedro. That really leaves us without a true #2 and with a bunch of #4s. I think with Lowe we are better than the 06 team, but without Lowe or Ollie we’re no better than the 08 team.
Worst case scenario:
Lowe signs with Phillies.
Mets sign Garland and Pedro.
well saber, this is when mets-phillies becomes yanks-sox because i think omar has to come out on top if it becomes a bidding war between us and the philthies. we cannot let them get him.
I absolutely agree. We’ve made improvements there is no doubt, but we have so many gaping holes we can’t allow one of our biggest weaknesses to become one of the Phillies biggest strengths. As much as I hate to admit it they’re better than us right now.
I dont see how the Phillies are better than us. Line up wise yes but not starting pitiching. After Hamels who we have done well against Moyer,Chan-ho Park and the others dont really put the faer of God into me. Our bull pens might be pretty much even now.
Sources for the Phills put Lowe coming to the Phillies at less than 1%. I know that anything can happen but I’m not worrying about this one.
And I don’t see the Phillies as being better than us right now. If they’re done dealing over there, then to me – especially if we get Lowe – their starting rotation is not better than ours. Only sure thing I see over there is the Cole Hamels. And does anyone really think their closer is going to repeat a perfect season? Is Ibanez really that much of an upgrade over Burrell?
I know we’ve got some question marks but I still think we’re in better shape than them. Utley is a big part of their offense and who knows when he returns? Third base is a platoon for them with one having back surgery over the winter.
Let’s wait and see what else Omar comes up with for this team over the next couple of months.
Hamels Pelfrey
Moyer > Maine
Blanton > Niese
Chan Ho Park = Figueroa
Lidge > Rodriguez
Romero Sanchez
Eyre > Feliciano
Ruiz = Schneider
Howard >= Delgado
Utley > Castillo
Feliz < Wright
Rollins Murphy/Tatis
Victorino Church
PH Bench > NY Bench
I don’t disagree that we can beat them head-to-head, but unfortunately we can’t beat the Marlins, Braves, etc. consistently.
Hamels Pelfrey
Moyer > Maine
Blanton > Niese
Chan Ho Park = Figueroa
Lidge > Rodriguez
Romero Sanchez
Eyre > Feliciano
Ruiz = Schneider
Howard >= Delgado
Utley > Castillo
Feliz NY Bench
I don’t disagree that we can beat them head-to-head, but unfortunately we can’t beat the Marlins, Braves, etc. consistently.
For some reason it’s cutting off my top:
Hamels Pelfrey
It should say Hamel less than equal to Santana,
Myers greater than Pelfrey.
Lets try this:
Hamels less than equal to Santana
Myers greater than Pelfrey
Moyer greater than Maine
Blanton greater than Niese
Park equal to Figueroa
Ruiz equal to Schneider
Howard greter than equal to Delgado
Utley greater than Castillo
Feliz less than Wright
Rollins less than equal to Reyes
Ibanez greater than Murphy/Tatis
Victorino less than Beltran
Werth greater than Church
Lidge greater than Rodriguez
Romero less than Putz
Madson greater than Sanchez
Eyre greater than Feliciano
PH Bench greater than NY Bench
I guess it’s all a matter of perspective. Mine:
Santana > Hamels
Moyer is what? 46 going into the ‘09 season?
Myers is a big ? considering they had to send him to the minors last year to relearn how to throw a strike.
You’ve got Niese in there when we don’t know if he’ll be on the starting rotation in April. Figueroa is in the minors and definitely won’t be part of the starting 5 unless we’re looking at injuries starting the season.
Lidge had a great ‘08. Before that, no so great. Krod has been more consistent as a closer.
The rest I more or less agree with except I’m putting Reyes as > Rollins.
Of course this is all on paper and we all know baseball isn’t played on paper….
according to mlbtr, the giants are targeting manny to put them over the top. would be nice if the mets got manny to put THEM over the top instead. if not, wilpons will pay with second place again and get what they deserve.
I have been reading this site for around 2 years…maybe 3? Def. 2. Used to be the best fan site in baseball. Either way, I stopped commenting about a year ago, but I have always logged in multiple times daily. Unfortunately I feel like the site is slipping this year. Not sure why- not fair to blame it on the SNY alliance- all for Matt getting paid and famous- but I don’t even get new content daily anymore, let alone a few times each day – can someone point me to a good replacement??
I know what you mean eaeden. This used to be the first site I’d check out but I think it has definitely gone down in quality. It’s updated sporadically and when it is it’s stuff from days ago or it’s a poorly written post with a lot of “like I’ve said” kind of comments.
I agree with what Nrmax said above. MLB Trade Rumors has become a superior site. It’s updated constantly and has a ton of great stuff on it. So much so that I constantly see people come to these boards copying and pasting info from there because it is relevent to the Mets and nobody has put it up here.
Also, the guy (Tim) who runs it seems to be a lot less arrogant and is really committed to making his site great.
Another good place to get info is from rotoworld.com. They are updated frequently too.
According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post:
The Giants, the NL West’s most active team this winter, are quietly making an aggressive play for free agent Manny Ramirez, according to a major-league source.
The Giants have been linked to Manny for months now; they apparently spoke with Scott Boras about him in November. It’s interesting to see the Giants being aggressive while so many other teams are standing pat. Would Manny put them over the top? I imagine Brian Sabean would like to move Dave Roberts, Randy Winn, or Aaron Rowand to clear roster and payroll space.
Bye Manny.
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