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On Tuesday, the Mets extended a three year, $36 million contract offer to free-agent RHP Derek Lowe.
Last night, Tony Massarotti of The Boston Globe wrote the following:
“According to a source familiar with the negotiations, Derek Lowe is likely to continue shopping for a more desirable offer.”
“While some reports have placed Lowe’s target in the range of five years and $90 million, a much more probable outcome is that Lowe ends up with a three- or four-year deal worth in the rage of $14-$15 million annually.”
…no surprise there…like i said the other day, i expect that the team’s initial offer was just that, the initial offer, and it will certainly be modified before all is said and done…
At Newsday, David Lennon expects negotiations between Lowe and the Mets to take some time:
“It will take more than the Mets’ initial offer to land Lowe. If they fall short, it’s on to Perez, who beat them in arbitration last season for $8.5 million. From there, it’s down to [Randy] Wolf and [Jon] Garland.”
…oh yeah, and happy new year everyone…
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Get Lowe, Perez AND Manny.
Happy New Year’s, Regis.
need 2 get this done
Would not offer Perez more than 10-11 million per. and even then I think it might be too much.
MLBTR says the Giants are quietly going after Manny, but would need to dump some payroll to do it.
Castillo for Rowand????
wow…just, wow. whatever you’re on i want some of it
Some semblance of that trade could be made. If we ate some of Castillo’s contract and all of Rowand’s contract. Rowand was vastly overpaid last year.
But that’s a totally different trade…it would be like saying we acquired Putz for Jason Vargas.
Oh no, I’m with you. I agree that eating contract is totally different than a straight up deal there. If we could we’d trade Castillo for Utley, but we have to be realistic.
I think it will turn into a face-off, but this will get done.
By the way, I am growing increasingly confident that Omar will go out oand get another OF bat to add to this team. If we do not get Manny and Abreu will take a 1 year deal, that would almost be giftwrapped for us.
Forget about his defense, he is a good bat. And on a one year deal, he would be a no brainer. There are so many good OF bats out there, and I would take pretty much any of them over Murphy/ Tatis platoon. As we saw last year, it is always nice to have depth in the OF.
Manny, Dunn, Burrell, Abreu, Garret Anderson…. there are five quality sticks to add to our OF.
Daniel Murphy is no Manny. He is, however, an Abreu clone. There is no need to spend an extra dime for the aging Abreu with Murphy.
I agree with you, but the difference is that with Abreu or Dunn, Murphy becomes a super-sub, and Tatis becomes a pinch hitter. Which strengthens the bench ten-fold, and leaves you much better options in case of injury.
We could trade for Chipper Jones and make David Wright a super-super sub!
But seriously, Tatis is a good outfield/bench bat and Reed is a 5th outfielder. Think of it this way. Signing Abreu to play LF is like signing Abreu to pinch-hit.
Get Lowe and then focus on 2nd base. Unless you want Murphy there. Then get a LF bat.
I want a super sub with an oatmeal cookie and large soda !
I disagree to an extent…i think the only way Murphy keeps getting better is if he gets more than half the ABs in LF in 2009. There is no arguing that he is anywhere close to Manny in terms of offense, but he is very impressive because of his work ethic and his raw ability. Let him see more pitches from more pitchers and he can turn into a great hitter, I think.
I know where you are going with this and I understand the sentiment. I disagree that Murphy is an Abreu clone however. He will never have the plate discipline of Abreu. While he showed such in a short sample last year, his minor league numbers do not indicate anywhere near Abreu’s discipline. Furthermore, Abreu is a much better baserunner in terms of steals and running discipline. I like Murphy but I think when Murphy and Abreu’s careers are over Abreu’s numbers will dwarf those of Murphy.
Abreu’s and Murphy’s numbers throughout their careers don’t matter. What matters is their numbers from this point forward and their cost from this point forward. And from here, Abreu is simply Daniel Murphy + $10M. Furthermore, it’s tough to say that Murph’s plate discipline wasn’t real based on his rookie-ball numbers. His BB% was 10% in AA and 13% in the majors. (Abreu’s in his prime was 18%, but again, he’s not in his prime anymore.) I also think you’re giving Murphy short-shrift in general here. It’s part of the whole Met “get the brand name players and heck with ‘unproven’ prospects” mode.
There’s also the fact we know for pretty much certain we’re going to get below average defense from Abreu where as there’s a decent chance with consistent playing time Murphy could become average, or even slightly better, defensively. Which I think could cancel out any slight offensive advantage.
While I want Manny the most, for many reasons, I think there is another way the Mets could go. As has been stated by many in the past, the Mets should try and deal for Bengie Molina and then sign Abreu or Dunn. Especially if it is true that the Giants are trying to trim payroll for a run at Manny. Abreu would probably make the most sense on a two year deal because he could hit second. Or the Mets could move Church to #2 and hit Dunn 6th.
Reyes, Church, Wright, Delgado, Beltran, Dunn, Molina, Castillo
or
Reyes, Abreu, Wright Delgado, Beltran, Church, Molina, Castillo
The Mets wouldn’t be breaking the bank, as they would add a total of $35 million for Dunn, Molina, and Lowe, while hopefully losing $5 million by dealing Schneider. Then they could add reclamation projects to the bullpen, and an adequate #5 and a utility man.
The only issue is what the Mets would be willing to trade for 1 year of Molina. If they could get a third team that wants Schneider involved, they could swing Schneider for a player the Giants would want, and add someone like Parnell and spin them off to the Giants.
wow awesome ..awesome thinking man…i think the fact that schieder is a lefty bat is dwarfing us..why not trade him for a right handed bat..or why not just get a reliable backup and let castro go full time..then instead of choosing from the what, 2 RH outfielders we can go after the left handed ones without making our lineup inept to left handed pitching? then we can move church into the 2 hole which was very successful last year without causing a huge hole at the bottom of the lineup..i never thought of it like that but that is an awesome idea and one i hope they explore!
That makes sense. While I don’t think Lowe is worth a whole lot more than 3 yrs/36 million, it makes sense for him to see what else is out there. At that price you’d have to think the Phils and maybe even the Yankees would get involved at the least. I could even see the Dodgers getting back in at that price if they decided to go with Dunn or Abreu over Manny.
I still wouldn’t guarantee that fourth year if I were the Mets, but I would be willing to go to as high as 3/42 and a vesting option on the fourth year. Especially if the Phillies are involved.
If Omar does not acquire Derek Lowe I don’t know how you can consider this offseason a success. The acquisition of KRod was necessary and I love the acquisition of Putz, but we are a long way from being done. We have GAPING holes in the rotation, 2B, LF, the bench, and the pen is still lacking.
Agreed, aquring K-rod and Putz was a good start but if we don’t fill the other holes it will have been almost pointless. K-rod and Putz outs us in the hunt for the division, adding Lowe, and improving the bench/ adding another bat puts us over the top IMO.
I’m with you on that. I think we’re only a couple of pieces away from being better than the 06 team. We were so close that year and I think we can truly be the team to beat with just a few small additions.
I think it would still be a success because he addressed our most important issue with authority…but no doubt it wouldn’t be the ideal offseason. However, you can’t deny that having to play a 7 inning game most nights now is going to take A LOT of pressure of our SP and our offense. When you jump out to an early lead just about every game and are still forced to play from behind 2 or 3 different times throughout the game, there is only so much you can do.
I am content with what we’ve got now, but in no way are we done yet and you know Omar feels the same way.
Yea I find Lowe as that one puzzle piece that once you find out where it fits you start seeing the whole image. I believe that image is a WS ring. Without Lowe, it would be like getting so frustrated that you just say “screw this, man” and then the puzzle is left undone or you try and squeeze a wrong piece into that hole, but it uncomfortably does not fit. That’s how I see it, anyway. I would be a bit upset without him. As soon as I heard what the Mets had offered him, I knew he wouldn’t go for it.
Alvino I agree, well except on Garret Anderson I don’t see how he’s quality/an upgrade over Murphy/Tatis, but as for the other 4 I don’t see how the front office can ignore them all and how much better adding one of their sure bats, strengthens are whole team. You strengthen the every day line up and the bench.
Who would you rather have coming up to pinch hit or filling in on certain days Marlon Anderson? Or one of Tatis/Murphyt. I don’t think it’s that hard of a decision to make and I don’t understand why the front office seems to have no interest. Especially since they supposedly went so hard after Ibanez, so obviously they thought there was a need.
I think you’re right, but I think that Omar is more interested in an outfield bat than we’ve been hearing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the solid OF free agents coming here (aside from Manny). I hope that we get Lowe though. He transforms our rotation. We need a #2 desperately.
Gina,
Anderson would be my fifth guy on that list. But he is an upgrade over Tatis. He is going to hit .290 and he hits lefties at about .290 for his career. He is a proven product, and if he could play about 125-135 games in left field, that would really balance out our order.
Also, to say that Murphy is an Abreu clone is ludicrous. Absolutely ridiculous. If Murphy can play 150 games in left field, hit .290 / 20 / 100 / .390 / 15-20 SB and bat in the middle of our lineup next season, then yeah you can tell me that he is a Bobby Abreu clone. For that matter, he can also play everday and not require a platoon partner.
I love Murphy, but we have to slow down a little bit with the comparisons.
trade schieder get molina and dunn (after locking down lowe)
reyes church wright delgado beltran dunn molina castillo (cora)
I think it surely will get done. But I think 12 mil anually is good to start with. We all know very well of the competition for Lowe, or lack of it. When all is said and done, I believe both sides will be forced to compromise. Lowe’s side to compromise for Mets and lower than expected, but also the Mets must also compromise to fill the need of Boras’ stubborness in which I as sume the offer will reach 3/40 + option. Now after that is all said and done, I presume by mid-January as previously stated.
What do you believe would be more important, having more talent such as Sheets, downside being injury risk(although the Mets might be able to afford the risk considering they have Neise and Figgy with serve as perfectly sutiable spot starters or guys to fill a role) Decent risk for great possible reward. Or Perez in which you sacrafice money and consistancy. Or go a cheaper route in Wolf(yuck), Redding or Garland(who at first was looking for Perez money, but then someone looked at his stats lol), therefore sacraficeing talent and stability. Or going the trade route and giving up some of the Mets own guys.
Another big issue I have is only having one lefty in Santana in the rotation for that Lefty heavy Phili line-up. Doesn’t seem like something to stress about when you look at overall numbers but when it comes to those games, thats when you start realize the need to fill that void.
If we can get Lowe for 3/40 + option then we’ll have him. My concern is some “smaller” market team thinking that Lowe can be their ace and jumping in with 4 guaranteed years at something like $50-$56. Lowe isn’t worth that. All of here are well aware that without adding two starters we are in pretty questionable shape.
We need at least one starter and it should be the best option out there – most of us think it’s Lowe. I want badly to believe the Mets are just playing the toughest bargaining posture they can, pretending to be only so interested.
Ollie would not be the worst thing that happened if we resigned him, he’s flawed but we can win with him, he’s also not a #2 starter. I honestly think Pelfry can develop into our #2 starter. I know the probabilities suggest he could as easily take a step back but I don’t get that feeling.
If it ends up being Ollie, then my sense is that we need bigger characters on the club than we have now (not sure who). I don’t want OP’s strange insecure personality to be a significant influence on team character. Last year you could argue that it might have been. Somehow the chemistry has to change.
“All of US here…”
It’s very short sighted to say pursue Lowe and then to pursue Perez “only if” Lowe falls through. What if Lowe takes another 3 weeks to sign and you lose him- and Perez signs a week from now while you are still waiting for Lowe. This is even more of a reason to pursue BOTH players simultaneously and attempt to sign both. You have the money Fred- make it happen. If revenues and ticket prices are soaring, payroll should increase as well.
I don’t think it’s in Omar’s plans to sign both though. I believe he still wants to fill the OF spot, attempt to correct his mistake at 2B, and solidify the pen & bench. But I totally understand what you are saying about the shorsightedness. We have to be extremely careful not to lose out on both Lowe and Perez or we are in a very precarious situation.
i agree with your aproch, both getting both seems unrealistic.
Also, Perez is most likely going to wait until Lowe signs first.
yeah I’m not as big on Abreu because like 4Joe said he’s basically what we expect (hope) Murphy to be, big on obp okay on power and Murphy has more defensive upside so really it might even be downgrading. I’d want to add someone like Manny, depending on the price, or Dunn, or maybe Burrel to add more power to the line-up.
Yeah, I think from our perspective out of the remaining upside outfield free agents their rank is:
Manny
Bradley
Burrell
Dunn
Abreu
I don’t think our ownership likes the direction of Manny or Bradley. Burrell is decent, but Dunn struggles in so many of the places that our team struggled last year as a whole. Such as batting with RISP. Abreu would be solid on a one year deal, but his best years are far behind him.
I forgot about Bradley. But his injuries would scare me a lot if we’re talking about playing every day in left field.
Really good point. Once you factor injuries in you almost have to forget about him for a team that just dealt with two straight seasons of getting less than half their time from their starting LF because of injuries. It’s like Sheets, who here wouldn’t want Sheets when he’s healthy? But, he’s hurt too often. (Strange that the Yankees didn’t feel the same about Burnett).
I do think it’s strange the market for Sheets has collapsed but it didnt for Burnett. I would actually be a lot more worried about Burnett, coming off a career high, or close to it at least, in IP than I would about Sheets. Until last season most of Sheets injuries have been bad luck, like one year he must a bunch of games with an ear infection for example, but I guess timing has a lot to do with it. But that being said I would have no problem sigining Sheets to be a 5th starter depending on the cost. Even if he only pitches 150-180 innings its going to be 150-180 ace like innings from your 5th starter.
why does noone like Abreu?
296 with 20 homers 100 rbi 100 runs
if you think Murphy will come anything close to that this year your way off.
I couldn’t care less about his defense, Abreu can hit, play Reed in LF in the late innings for him.
abreu is great on paper, but not on the field
Burrell? He’s about the streakiest hitter as they come. He was so bad first half of ‘07 the Phillies couldn’t give him away. Then he finishes with the second half with one of the best avg. in the NL (think Delgado). And he’s a horrible left fielder, often replaced in late innings for defense. So we make him our starting LF and who do we have for defensive replacement? Tatis/Murphy – neither one of who plays good defensive LF right now.
No thanks. I’ll take my chances with Tatis/Murphy.
Goes without saying though that I take Manny for 1-2 years over any of them.
“the Mets extended a contract offer to free-agent RHP Derek Lowe for roughly three years and $36 million”
does roughly 3 year mean omething like 2 years and 5 months or 4 and a half? How about something on the level of middle school writing at least.
You, sir, are a jerk.
That being said, clearly he meant roughly $36 million. Sadly, the universe is going to explode because he put the word “roughly” before the years and not the dollars.
Unless the Mets, in general, and the Met fans, in particular, are willing to accept Tim Redding and Jon Neise as the #4 and #5 pitchers in the rotation, Manny Ramirez is not a financial posibility.
The realistic posibilities span the chasm of needs include LOWE & PEREZ, a reserve infielder, one minor addition to the bullpen, and NO offensive additions to LOWE or PEREZ, minor bullpen and bench acquisitions, some (less than Manny) offensive help.
The latter may take the form of Orlando Hudson, while swallowing all or most of Luis Castillo’s contract, but little else.
That’s the way I see it too. We’re not gonna get it all. And come middle of the season – before the trade deadline – we can reevaluate and maybe get a missing piece or two after we see what we’ve got with the question marks going into the season…..
arent you a funny guy. roughly is for the dollar amount, dingbat
I feel you Gina. Although the Diamonbacks said they were interested, there hasn’t been that much interest in Sheets. Thats means, nobody but agents and GM’s are really know his price. As you said, even if he is out for a couple starts, we might be able to afford it considering we wouldn’t be investing a hole lot im him and have good spot starters like Niese and Figgy. I say give him around 8 mil and up to 10.5 in insentives at around 2 years.
If the Mets wait out like they did with Johan, they should sign Lowe at relatively cheap. Probably 14 mil per for 3/4 years
My radar started beeping when I thought about the market for Sheets collapsing. I like the idea of him as a fifth starter if the price is right. Hopefully Omar is lurking in the shadows and if he sees a good shot… he takes it
No O-Dog!
He’s another Castillo all over again. What can he possibly give you that is worth the risk and money considering there is internal and cheaper options.
No Hudson. way more “name” than expected output. Not for the price/years. Better to spend the moey elsewhere.
I also think that a ST deal for Sheets is a great idea. Unless there is something on his medical report scaring teams away, he has the potential to be the steal of the off season.
Look, if you can get him for a couple million more than Garland to be your 5th starter? No brainer there IMO.
Exactly; Hudson’s a name brand. A smaller scale guy would be far better.
Don’t look now; but I might trade Daniel Murphy for Willie Aybar if the Rays want Murph as a DH.
Personally, I think the hoopla over Lowe is overblown. But let’s say Lowe has less up and down games than Ollie, how about these key stats
vs. Philadelphia
Ollie 4GS, 0.35ERA, 26IP, 27K
Lowe 1GS, 4.26ERA, 6.1IP, 3K
Add in Ollie’s performances against the Yankees (a team he probably pitches against twice a year) and you see what I mean.
Now, if we could get Lowe cheap fine. But I say put the offer we gave Lowe on the table for Ollie, rearranging it a bit to be performance attainable and see what happens. For all the talk about Lowe and the Mets, I get the distinct feeling that he’s not too crazy about coming here and will only if the money is great. I honestly fear a Kevin Brown situation with him.
Sign Ollie and Sheets. High risk but very high reward.
I like that. You need 2 good starters, but if Lowe is one you probably can’t afford another. I love Lowe don’t get me wrong. But the Perez and Sheets situaiton may be a better fit considering the need of a lefty, quility and innings.
Someone made the point that if we missed out on Lowe and Ollie we’d be in a tough spot. I don’t know about that but I think Omar must be mindful we are vulnerable because we NEED one starter plus we COULD REALLY USE another. I have a bad feeling they want to gamble on an aging Japanese free agent and a pile of retread American guys. It might pay off but it often doesn’t.
Also, to all these posters who casually suggest dealing Niese and Parnell; have you looked at our farm system lately? We don’t have a big surplus of hard throwing pitchers, meaning we need what we’ve got.
Lowe good. Ollie not good.
Now, you could point to one great game Ollie had and one terrible game Lowe had. I would rather look at their total numbers. Total numbers tell you:
Lowe good. Ollie not good.
Against teams other than the Braves, Phillies and Marlins Perez had an ERA well over 9, ncluding an ERA over 13 vs the nationals. As important as it is to win in the division we need to be able to win outside of it.
What exactly did winning the season series against the Phillies last year get us again? If you look at last year’s standings where we lost ground was outside of the division.
I know what you mean *247: that with Ollie we ‘re gonna win 6 games right ,4 against Philly and 2 against the yankees ! WOW
Why are we playing this stupid game with Derek Lowe? Just plain stupid. Are we really satisfied with Oliver Perez as our #2 starter?
Low-balling Lowe like this accomplishes two things:
1) Upsets Lowe.
2) Encourages other teams to get into the bidding since the price may actually be so low.
Why not come out of the box with 3-years, $45 with a vesting option that’s difficult to achieve? What’s a couple million more a year if it means a World Series???
Stupid, stupid games.
Come on Wilpons, Lowe and Manny and we’re set. You get playoff games in your new stadium, we’re all happy.
Admittedly im a little worried about the Lowe situation, as its clear we need his consistency on the team. However I believe it is him and Boras playing the game. I believe the Mets will settle on a deal sometime next week with him, as was said above, the bullpen moves were great but wont matter if we dont get a legit #2.
On a side note, i believe sheets is going to be the kyle lohse of last off season. meaning he will get a 1yr deal somewhere at the end of the offseason and put up a monster year. if omar/wilpons are confident with neise as the 5th starter, or redding/garland/wolf/pedro, why not sheets? if he goes on the DL for a few games then neise comes in. to me it seems like a no brainer, although im not a GM nor do i know anything of sheets’ medical records so……
I see where your coming from, and I think I agree. But IMO people are over doing it on his injuries. When you have someone like Niese coming in, it isnt that hard to deal with.
As for Lowe – yes this is getting agitating. But I am feeling confident that we’re going to sign him within maybe a week. I am HUGE on consistency, and Lowe is consistent and quite frankly we NEED him.
i’d be all for signing sheets – i mea when healthy he’s as good as anyone out there – i just don’t want him to be a last resort incase we don’t sign Lowe Ollie or Wolf
We just have to be patient , we’re signing Lowe, we’re signing Pedro to a 1 yr deal( i dont like it but it’s gonna happen), Alex Cora 2 yr deal, all the other holes are gonna be fill within the organization (dont agree either but … )
hey willie what makes you so sure resigning pedro is a given? i mean i’d like to see him back don’t get me wrong … i just think he might be way to fragile at this stage of the game
signing alex cora makes no sense to me. we might as well have just kept argenis reyes. they’ll give you the same production except awful reyes would be cheaper, younger and under control longer.
btw guys instead of that stupid blink 182 song they played before every game last season hows about that andrew w.k song I think its called ” get this party started”
Party Hard
I think everybody is afraid of Sheets’ medical records or somebody would have put an offer out there already.
honestly i’d be more afraid of pedro’s injuries if we were to resign him thatn sheets . that being said i couldnt believe it they were selling glavine jerseys on mets.com lol
Everyone would be more worried about Pedro’s injuries than Sheets, but the issue is signing Sheets for 2/20 and Pedro for 1/4-7, pretty major difference. But I am curious why the Mets don’t seem to be showing any interest in Sheets.
Maybe Omar is waiting this one out. After getting the pitcher, and hopefully upgrading LF and 2B, if Sheets is still around, he may throw a haevy-incentive offer with a low base salary.
That would be great. If Sheets rounded out the rotation we could muddle through Niese/Figueroa when Sheets was hurt. I think we’d be pretty well off. (Of course that’s a ssuming that we get another good pitcher as well).
btw,
On an ESPN crawl,
“Lowe disappointed in Mets 3yr/36M offer….”
Gee, no surprise there.
Yeah, mlbtr put that up a while ago. This could be really bad for us, but I have a lot of trust and faith in Omar. I think he’ll put together a decent rotation for us one way or another. (At least I hope he’s as smart as I’m giving him credit lol)
Agreed. I’m trusting in Omar too after his Houdini with the bullpen so far this hot stove season. Not like I have a choice, and he has done a good job. This waiting game he’s used for his last few major moves from Santana, K-Rod, etc is bound to work for only so long and I could just as easily see a veteran like Lowe take this personally and take any next best offer. Then again it’s all about the dollars. This is why I don’t play poker.
I’m worried about the Braves swooping in for Lowe.
That would be bad. Remember when this offseason started writers were speculating the Phillies might have interest. They haven’t shown any, but man it’s a double blow if one of our division rivals signs him.
Some of the greatest trades and signings are the ones that never happen..
imo (humble) anyone who gives Lowe or Ollie anywheres near 15M a season should by all means enjoy the ride; just hope it ain’t us.
YOUTH !
Pichin’ ,defense, speed….
stick to the script Omar.
I think 15M for Lowe is getting high and it’s out of the ballpark for Ollie, but 14 is about where Lowe should be. As for your speed comment, the best speed teams in the history of the game have had limited success. I like speed, but ground ball pitching beats speed any day.
The Braves are one of those teams you never hear a peep out of until the transaction happens.
Very true, and they obviously have a brilliant GM.
unfortunately. i’m actually more worried about them, and to an extent the marlins, right now than I am the phillies. the phillies team looks pretty set and it doesn’t particularly scare me, although it will if our team doesn’t improve any more from where we are now, the braves and marlins seem like teams with a lot of pieces to make moves that could make huge differences.
that used to be the case. now that wren took over not as much anymore, as we saw with their negotiations for peavy, burnett and furcal
the mlb network starts in 10min 4 cablevision
Thanks for the heads up, I forgot about that. For those with DirectTV it’s ch 213.
is it free in cablevision? cuz it says I have to call to order it.
Is it free for Comcast subscribers? I can’t find anything that says either way on their website.
yes its free
wut ch for cablevision?? is it in hd?
47 days til pitchers and catchers report
go dawgs!
welcome back rusty
let’s get this “remake the roster” party rollin’
2009, baby!
With regards to an earlier post comparing Murphy to Abreu:
” Abreu is simply Daniel Murphy + $10M. Furthermore, it’s tough to say that Murph’s plate discipline wasn’t real based on his rookie-ball numbers. His BB% was 10% in AA and 13% in the majors. … I also think you’re giving Murphy short-shrift in general here. It’s part of the whole Met “get the brand name players and heck with ‘unproven’ prospects” mode.”
Actually in two minor league stops where Murphy played any significant time his BB% was:
A+: 7.7%
AA: 9.8%
In the majors it was 12.1% in a small sample.
For his career Abreu has a BB% of 15.2%. Furthermore using projections from Marcel and Bill James we have:
Murphy: James -10.4%, Marcel – 10.7%
Abreu: James – 14.0%, Marcel – 12.6%.
I think it is wildly optimistic to think Murphy’s 2009 will be as good as Abreu’s.
factor in defense. abreu was one of the worst in the league last year, where as Murphy was above average, small sample size though. if you look at fan graphs, I’m as-suming thats where you’re getting the numbers from, Abreu was worth 1.1 WAR last year, over a full season, where as Murphy in 150 at bats was worth .9, which over a full season is like a 3 WAR player. Even if he doesn’t live up to that, which I doubt, unless his defense was a complete and utter fluke, which unfortunately might be possible. He’ll at worst be a wash with Abreu.
Also for what it’s worth CHONE, which is the most accurate projection system for hitters I believe, projects Abreu to be 1.1 WAR and Murphy to be 1.2 WAR.
PECOTA is most definitely the most accurate projection system, but their numbers are not available yet. But even your arguments show that Abreu is superior. I’m not arguing we need Abreu, but Murphy is not the answer. Not to mention that he has to be platooned.
I like Murphy as much as the next guy/gal and there’s no doubt he can still improve his all around game. But I do fear that what we saw last year was not exactly what we will see this year.
Afterall, a minor league line of .290/352/444 (mostly at A and AA) does not suggest that he is going to be better than Bobby Abreu this season, who should put up at least that like at the big league level.
If Muprhy put up that line this season, I’d consider it a great success. I just don’t think it is something we should expect.
How do my arguments prove that? Murphy is projected to be more valuable than Abreu by both systems.
Wait a second. Not to compare Manny with Abreu, but you cannot use the defense argument is you want Manny that badly. He is as bad in the OF as there ever has been an OF.
Like I wrote above:
Gina,
Also, to say that Murphy is an Abreu clone is ludicrous. Absolutely ridiculous. If Murphy can play 150 games in left field, hit .290 / 20 / 100 / .390 / 15-20 SB and bat in the middle of our lineup next season, then yeah you can tell me that he is a Bobby Abreu clone. For that matter, he can also play everday and not require a platoon partner.
I love Murphy, but we have to slow down a little bit with the comparisons.
I didn’t say that 4Joe said that. I said it didn’t make any sense to spend 10+ million on Abreu when we don’t know how much of an upgrade he’s going to be. We know he’s going to be a huge downgrade defensively though, spending it on Dunn or maybe Burrel I’m not as much of a fan of him, makes sense because we know they’re going to give us plus power which Murphy likely won’t, not Abreu.
If we want defense in left field, then let’s play Reed everyday.
Abreu is one of the most consistent players out there. The Mets have a gold glover in Beltran and another good defender in Church. Abreu would not kill us in the OF.
It should say something that he was the 3 hitter in a stacked Yankee lineup. When he was dealt to NY, he immediately was put there as well. Murhpy would not even crack the Yankee everyday lineup this year.
Since when do you want defense or offense. You want the best combination of both. If a player creates 20 runs but gives up 20 he’s worthless.
Interesting about Burrell — He hit way better outside of Citizens Bank last season. However, that is not necessarily his career trend.
And though he has a reputation as a Mets killer, his career OPS at Shea is only .819.
Abreu wouldnt crack their everyday line up either. Hence why he’s a free agent. Not to mention no one said he would kill us. Just that he’s not enough of an upgrade to be worth paying for.
Gina is right in her last point:
“Abreu …[is] not enough of an upgrade to be worth paying for.”
We need a bigger improvement than Abreu. I believe he is an improvement, but if we are willing to completely sacrifice defense Dunn or Burrell would be much better answers.
He’s left handed. If you want a left-handed, offensive holes and a defensive liability at a reasonable price, get Adam Dunn.
I know none of us are GM’s, but due to the fact that we are all GM-wannabes, I can see there is more to the slow signings than just the recession. As we all sit here and do the pros and cons of everybody out there, we get good and negative things about all of the choices. Do you think the brain trusts of all of the clubs are doing the same thing and at the end of the day they are scratching their heads like we are?
Speaking of left handed players, I haven’t read much here about Eddie Guardado. He’s better than a LOOGY, righties had only a .720 something OPS against himn last season and he has been somewhat of a mentor for JJ Putz.
Since most of the people here seem to favor bringing in a lefty, I’d like to see someone who can face righties, since Feliciano can not. Plus, Guardado might be a good veteran presence in the bullpen late in the season.
I actually like the idea of Guardado. You also get someone with closing experience, which is a plus. But I see Omar taking a chance on lesser known quantities. He wants to get two or three pieces for the pen where one works out. Not a bad move if the money that would have gone toward the pen gets reinvested elsewhere.
I made a typo in that last comment. It was suppose to be win in any season.
Lowe is overrated and I think being that Rowand is being shopped around that Castillo for Rowand would be a nice fit, he is a pretty decent bat despite having a bad season last year, come to think of it seems like with most outfielders in 2008 only Manny and Beltran had pretty good years.
were not upgrading LF and 2b its 1 or the other.
we will sign
lowe -3 for 41 with option
pedro-1 yr 5 mil with 3 mil in incentives
hudson
cora
I watched Abreu play a lot last year, and the guy is a complete butcher out there.
I know it’s easy to say, “He puts up good numbers, I can live with poor defense!”
Yeah, the first time you see him misplay a routine fly ball from a crucial out into a bases clearing double, you’ll change your mind. He’s possibly the worst OF in MLB right now. He makes Manny look like a Gold Glover.
He’s soft, and puts up empty numbers at the plate.
Rowand is no Matt Holiday who I think the Mets could get, but if he’s available through trade and the Mets could get rid of Castillo for him, I say do it. Because with him out in Left you wouldn’t be losing out on Defense like you would with the so called “Power Bats” through free agents.
yea if we can get Holliday for Castillo why not trade Stokes for Becket and Lester? Maybe they’ll throw pedroia in as a deal breaker. If the A’s have to give up Houston Street+ wut makes you think they’ll take castillo for him?
I don’t think he meant that we could get Holliday for Castillo, I think he meant in general we could get Holliday. But even then I’m not so sure. The A’s gave up quite a bit for Holliday. Carlos Gonzalez is the real deal. He was the centerpiece of that trade. If we want Holliday we’d have to give up the farm and Ryan Church. I don’t think that’s a good move.
Isn’t Darren Oliver a free agent? we should bring him back as our long man, then use stokes as a 5th starter…then pick-up hudson, tell castillo we are still playing in shea, give him last years schedule to follow so he’ll never figure it out, then sign sean avery of the NHL to play left, because everyone says we need a tough guy, he would run into the infleld, stand in front of the batter as the pitch was coming in, then run back into the outfield… it would be great. or sign johnny gomez…
Darren Oliver accepted arbitration with the Angels.
That first offer is a little insulting.
Atleast 14 per.
And please no Abreu. This team needs an attitude change.
They are pretty gutless now.
They need more people willing to throw it down like Santana going on short rest on the second to last game and throwing a shutout.
That was gangsta!
We need more gangstas.
Manny’s sure as hell gangsta!
Yeah, as far as “ganstas” go. I was always torn on the Manny situation for reasons we can all imagine. But, lets consider what Manny would bring to this team on an offensive standpiont(not so great defensivly but has a good glove, no range or arm though lol) and the price considering. If anybody can handel this guy its Jerry Manuel. Do you honestly think Jerry Manuel would put up with Manny’s sh!@t?
you forgot to mention that santana had a torn miniscus (at least i think it was a miniscus but the point is that he was injured) and threw a shut out. name two other ACTIVE players who would be able to gut it out and succeed something comprable to that. those are the intangables you need out of a ball player. And although im not against a manny signing he wont play through bumps and bruises. In fact he’ll imagine up new ones.
For those of you who asked earlier about MLB network on Comcast:
As far as I can tell MLB network is only being offered in HD – which means you have to have the HD box (and an HD TV of course) to get it. I just searched their website looking for it on regular/digital station but no match so I don’t believe they offer that. It’s HD or nothing. Right now they’re showing Don Larsens perfect game in the WS – if you want to try and find the station.
On mine, it’s 280.
And OMG – Sat night at 8pm they’re showing the 7th game of the NLCS from 2006. I can’t watch that again – too much like torture.
MLB Network is on Cablevision Channel 149 and 790 HD
They were lucky they didn’t get burned with their initial lowball offer to K-Rod. Mets might not be so lucky this time. Ante up, Freddie- and sign Perez or Manny in addition to Lowe.
wow i really hope we didnt just ruin getting this guy by insulting him by that initial offer…there better be a better offer out from omar yesterday!
Interesting, people say Manny is one of the worst defenders, yet he almost single-handedly carried the Dodgers into the postseason. Apparently his defense isn’t that bad. I didn’t see any atrociuos outfield plays that cost them games. I know it’s more than likely a moot point since it’s pretty clear he’s not coming here, but I think people tend to blow things way out of proportion on this site. If we went by what some people post here we’d never acquire anyone. Every player has flaws.
it’s not just that he’s substandard defensively, often he’s just plain LAZY out there, jogging after balls, not really caring if he makes the catch or throws out the guy. Are you willing to trade a great month at the end of the year for a season full of lackadaisical play? Depending on his contract, that may be what you’re paying for. Frankly, I’m not sure if I’d take it or not.
Does anyone think that Matt Holliday will land in our laps at the trade deadline? The A’s will most likely be out of it (of course, you never know, e.g. the Rays), and Beane dealt for Holliday so he could flip him on July 31st for a ton of prospects. If we’re in range of the Phillies for first place, we’ll go out and get him. God knows we’ll need him, considering the chances that Murphy, Delgado and Tatis all repeat what they did last year are very slim.
I don’t think he will “land in our laps”, as Beane will want a boatload and Omar won’t want to give it up for a half season rental who is represented by Scott Boras
This idea that Mets better hope a player (Lowe) isn’t offended by a contract offer is with all due respect idiotic.
You think a player says, “can you believe that low ball offer Mets made me I refuse to continue negotiations with them” and then never actually speaks to them again?
Like they say, nothing personal, it’s just business baby.
how hard can this be?
Mets make a low but ballpark first offer, reflecting the general market/economic situation.
As-suming Lowe does want to play for the Mets (and frankly, it is the perfect situation for him, east coast, ready/able to win now, NL, etc.), standard negotiating is to counter on the other side of ballpark.
Ask for 4/60 (no way he is getting 5 years or 18 per).
Omar groans, goes to maybe 3/42 with possibly a vesting option for the 4th year, Lowe signs, and ideally Omar goes to snag Sheets too.
badda boom, badda bing. Just get it done. You know you want it Boras..
it’s like buying a car — Lowe just took the offer back to his sales manager with a pained expression — he’ll be back with a counter
Oh yeah, Holliday is overrated, and the As are going to get burned on this deal. You heard it here first!
I think, just to serve Boras right, Omar should go out and sign Sheets and Wolf (for probably total about what Lowe wants per year). THen sign a couple of reclamation projects for when 1 or both needs a DL vacation.
Could you imagine how POd Lowe will be with Boras if the Mets fill out the rotation, and officially walk away from the Lowe and Ollie table?
Would be funny to see what that does for their offers, having the NYMs out of it.
the A’s gave up like nothing to get him.
Uh…they gave up a lot to get him. They gave up a solid outfield prospect who could hit 30 HRs per year at Coors in Carlos Gonzalez, a bona-fide MLB-ready starter in Greg Smith, and their closer in Huston Street.
Carlos Gonzales has shown no power and really nothing but +speed, he’s all tools and overrated because of it. Greg Smith is an extreme fly baller, who likely wasn’t going to stick in the rotation anyway they were planning on moving him back to the bullpen, who’s going to get lit up constantly in Coors because of his flyball tendencies. And Street is overrated he’s not really a closer type pitcher and his numbers have been dropping across the board, including his velocity and k/9 which is why Beane was trying to move him. Not to mention with all the prospects they’ve gotten the last few years the deal didn’t even make a tiny dent in their farm system.
dont you think manny would be the perfect fit because of the collapses the past two years. we need somebody that wont choke down the stretch and when the game is on the line towards the end of the season manny can put the team on his back. he’s a proven clutch player which is exactly what the mets need.
I’ve been on the Lowe bandwagon for quite some time now, but Sheets/Wolf has me salivating quite a bit as well. The big issue I see with Sheets is that we all know he’s going to break down, the thing that bothers me is the timing. Is he going to be available for the playoffs? I don’t care if he breaks down in the middle of the season, but in the middle of a playoff run is the one that has me cringing and shying away from him.
The Mets and Lowe seem pretty close. I think they’ll get it done in a week or so.
I think/hope/want Derek Lowe signs with the Mets. I think the Mets should offer a 3 year 42 mil with a 4th option( 12 mil or so). I know it is not the 18 mil he wants but it might be the best offer out there for him. Lowe has proven he does well in pressure situations. He is a much better big game pitcher than Ollie is. He is the exact type of pitcher the Mets need. People need to realize that Lowe has been starting regularly for 7 years now. He also has the frame/type of pitcher that should not have that much tear compared to some other 35 year olds.
Abreu is bad in the field, but we are talking about filling him in as a stop gap outfielder. He plays in 150 games and we know the numbers he would produce. he will also bat anywhere from 2nd to 5th for us.
I am not even a big Abreu fan. But I have to give credit where credit is due.
Abreu is afraid of the wall. good hitter though. not really sold on him.
i think it’s one of those abreu is better than tatis/murphy things. murphy is unproven and tatis is, well, tatis. you know abreu is going to be an on-base machine, but he is aging. he’ll be 35 this season.
I know pretty much the majority of you guys want lowe here becoz of his durability, but i tell you guys, I rather have sheers and garland than lowe, to me he’s over rated and i think that the mets did right by offering him that amount.. he’s a 12-14 million guy becoz he’s always around 33 starts a year, but i was never nor will i be sold on him, get ben sheets, if healthy he’s FILTHY good, and we can have a good 1-4 rotation, and another thing, the mets are looking at PEDRO, at this point, i don’t even care anymore, i am resign to the fact that the mets are a stupid organitazion from time to time and never learn from their mistakes of signing old broken down guys..
Heard Heyman on FAN just now. He stated that Lowe wants 16/yr. He is not sure if Mets will go that high.
Other teams possible are Phils, Braves, Sox and Cubs.
If he goes to Phils, you can forget playoffs for Mets.
I want a lot of things I am not going to get too.
Really, the question is, if not the Mets, what team is going to pony up 16mill/yr. for Lowe? That is 3/48 or 4/64 (or 5/80 since he also was reported to want 5 years!)
Mets offered 12. He “wants” 16. So just split the danged difference and offer him 3/42, take it or leave it.
BTW, no Manny! at least Heyman did not say Manny to the Mets.
He thought Hudson was still a possibility.
I think Manny will end up w/Giants.
Joel Sherman has an interesting blob about possible big trades w/Sox given that Sox lost out on Tex.
Included in these, is a Beltran to Sox for Elsbury and Dice K. It would solve Sox offense, give Mets CF and a #2 SP. Mets could then filled offensive void w/somebody (yes for those Manny lovers here is your opening).
I don’t think that trading the only guy who showed up last september is in the mets book right now.. plus, i am gonna say this, jacoby elsbury is not that good.. and dice k is a 5 inning pitcher.. NO!!!
that would be worse than kazmir, no thanks.
I would do that in a heartbeat. Matsuzaka would dominate in the National League, and we could sign Manny or someone else (Abreu? Dunn?) to take back Beltran’s bat. I’m not sure how Ellsbury fits into the team, however. I think I’d rather have Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden. We could move Lowrie to second base.
very intruiging. dice k while not an ace is very solid. im not HUGE on ellsbury but i think he can be decent. if it means we sign manny/dunn/abreu for LF than Ide do it. whats dice k’s salary?
fyi – in shermans blog he CLEARLY states that this is a scenario he made up off the top of his head (ellsbury and dice k)
It’s still funny how anybody still wanna get rid of the best CF in the game.. to me just to even have the thought is ludacris..
yeah, we’re talking beckett, lester, papelbon, pedroia…those are the names that would go with a beltran.
if the mets were in the need to trade for somebody it should’ve been delgado (i still think it should be), but not somebody who’s only 31 years old and arguably the best center fielder in the game.. with that said i just hope to see the mets upgrade their offense a lil bit, a new look is needed.. whether is hudson, or manny, or even dunn..
i completely agree. i was just pointing out that IF there was to be a trade involving beltran, it would be for an equally phenomenal player.
beltran is one of my favorite players in the game because he shuts up and just plays.
You mean he shuts up and just chokes. Remember 2006? Wainwright threw him a meatball and he didn’t even swing.
Not only that but if you look at the best players in the market right now, they all make 20+ millions, i feel like at the price we got him compare to now he’s a bargain
Yep it would take a mega trade for us to consider it.
Put the Jones rumors back on. Looks like the Dodgers are either going to buy him out or he will restructure his deal to become more attractive in a trade. Interesting because the Dodgers don’t want him there and he does not want to be there. They however need the money so they can get Manny.
if we get him for basically nothing or in a trade with that bum we have at 2b then i’ll take him.. he can at least help at right and left field here and there.. but if it does happen we will see o.hudson in a met uniform
I don’t like it but at this point I guess I am ok with that. Depends on how cheap they both come.
I think I would rather just have Jones at 8 million and keep Castillo than to take on all of Jones salary and sign Hudson.
but TRS, if you can have dunn at 12 why risk to give 8 millions to andru?? makes no sense money wise either.. with that said if the dodgers are gonna get rid of him by basically dumping him, they can trade castillo and still ask the dodgers to pay some of the salary of jones.. ala manny last year wit the red sox
Hey, if the Dodgers can restructure/buyout Jones, why can’t the Mets just buy Castillo an annuity to pay him into the deep future (like Bonilla) and tell him to just go away?
Not that it likeiy matters, since I bet he gets hurt before June and goes on the DL for an extended stay.
Would it really surprise anyone if Castillo’s knees give out making him totally incapable of playing? Certainly a win for the fans!
Omar minaya is trying to trade him, but the mexico league said that they rather have their tacos package instead of trading for castillo..
stemog1 says:
January 1, 2009 at 10:09 pm
Interesting, people say Manny is one of the worst defenders, yet he almost single-handedly carried the Dodgers into the postseason. Apparently his defense isn’t that bad. I didn’t see any atrociuos outfield plays that cost them games. I know it’s more than likely a moot point since it’s pretty clear he’s not coming here, but I think people tend to blow things way out of proportion on this site. If we went by what some people post here we’d never acquire anyone. Every player has flaws.
^^^ i agree 100%, and hopefully we can land lowe, ollie, and manny damn wilpons just see that he is a great piece to have for a World Series Championship run
alex242 says:
January 2, 2009 at 10:01 am
Omar minaya is trying to trade him, but the mexico league said that they rather have their tacos package instead of trading for castillo..
^^^1. comedy failure
2. castillo is not mexican so highly unlikely he would even go to that league
3. racial undertone yea just a little bit
While we’re at it with the crazy Mets-Sox trades, why not Pedroia, Lester and Buchholz for the Golden Boy?
To be honest, I’m not sure either. I just keep thinking back to the Mets wanting good-character guys, and yes it’s great to have that … most of the time. But you do need to mix in some free spirits every now and then. I think back to the ‘86 with some of the characters on that team. How do you think the ‘86 Mets would react to the comments made by the Phillies?
I agree with your reasoning. I don’t think you should ever hang onto prospects if you can get legitimate talent for an extended period of time. With that being said I think the A’s asking price would be something along the lines of F Martinez, Parnell, Church, and a couple of other low level prospects. I don’t know that we are in a good position to make that move.