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Joel Sherman of the New York Post sees no way Derek Lowe accepts the three-year, $36 million offer from the Mets, which is less money and years than Carlos Silva, who signed a four-year, $48 million deal with M’s last off-season.
Sherman writes, “Lowe considers himself far superior to Silva.”
This is going to take a while. Boras, I’m sure, doesn’t want to settle, at least not before trying to stimulate a new market for his client – at the same time, I believe the Mets have no interest in going above $15 million per season. My guess is, eventually, after a long-drawn out staring contest, the Mets will have to up their offer to, say, three years, $14 million per season, and an easily attainable fourth-year option. Otherwise, if the price remains low, Boras may be able to wrangle in more teams.
The thing is, this is not last year’s economy, and the Mets will not and should not bid against themselves.
Speaking of starting pitchers…
Sherman also says the Mets had interest in Jason Marquis, who the Cubs recently traded to the Rockies.
However, Sherman writes, “The Mets are working methodically this offseason, addressing one shortcoming at a time before moving on to the next item… Now their next quest is to land a veteran starter who can pitch near the top of the rotation… Only after the Mets bring in that level of starter will they focus on other areas, such as the No. 5 starter slot.”
Sherman also blogs about Manny Ramirez and the Giants, and the Mark DeRosa deal, among other things.
Does Lowe also consider the 2008 economy to be superior to 2007? If so, would he like to buy some stock?
lo tmu maybe lowe got caught up in the madoff ponzi scheme also
Oooh — Matt made the economy point. Oops.
Anyway, he should have signed a shorter deal last time around if he wanted Silva money — choice he (Boras) made. . . .
Can’t the front office walk and chew gum at the same time? What is there to be gained from filling holes one at a time?
well after watching jeff wilpon speak in the citi field infomercial i’m surprised he could walk and talk at the same time :P
I was wondering the same thing. Just stand there and work up the nerve to ask the pretty girl to the dance. Wait long enough, and when she says no, only Big Bertha is left without a date.
I sure hope that “methodically” is made up.
lol he sounds like a combination of kermit the frog ray romano and harold ramis with the looks of the clay aiken with a overbite lol
Nice :)
thanx
Seriously.. they sound like morons when you put that way..
Hudson is just sitting there.. they can’t work on that while also working on Lowe and Ollie?
Jeez.. maybe if Omar got a 5 year extension he could do two things at once
face it slappy will be a met and o dog will be a nat
Or on the braves since they lost out on Furcal.. he’d actually be a perfect fit for them.
i think mark grudzy would be a could utility infielder if he would swallow his pride and take a part time role
Sherman writes, “Lowe considers himself far superior to Silva.”
thats like saying frank zappa is far superior than paul stanley – duh !!
true, but i don’t think lowe comes close to frank zappa when it comes to weirdness
Zappa reference! Zing!
zappa was the man
My two favorite things–mets and frank zappa!!
The Muffin Man!
Oh and Matt.. please man.. bring back the old old comments.. these are slightly better then the wones directly before them.. but still pretty bad.. they take up way too much space.. and make direct conversations much harder…
Add that to your new year’s to do list!
i disagree still – i feel this is just as good as the original
They take up twice the room and after awhile you can’t directly reply to each other… what do you like about these?
Comments is how you get tons of hits to the site.. you keep coming back to read the conversations… otherwise you just read the post and your done…
i can follow the conversation now better than the last incarnation
As a stalwart of the “change the comments sections back” movement (my one day boycott was painful, but necessary) I have to say that I still prefer the old form to this one, but this at least is far better than the one it is replacing. My one day boycott really would have been forever if we could no longer directly respond to one another. This isn’t perfect, but I’ll certainly take it!
why not just institute a message board?….best format available.
i dont mind the new comments section……just as good….this site is great…lay off
GET BEN SHEETS!!!!
what no “GET MANNY” Alex?? man u r slipping lol
Manny Alexander is coming out of retirement?!?!? AWESOME!
i was hoping for a manny aybar reunion – but hense no such luck :P
I heard Manny Trillo is coming out of retirement
Does anyone have information/the slightest inkling about why Ben Sheets has apparently been off Omar’s radar all off-season? To me, he’s the number-two SP target in our sights…
(Amazing Avenue had a great piece a short while ago comparing Ollie to Sheets… among the interesting tidbits is the fact that Sheets– injury-checkered history included– has put up three 200-inning seasons in his career, while Ollie’s never hit the magic number.)
probably cuz he’s injury prone
the silva deal wasn’t concieved at that point – i believe we will sign him to a 3 year 40 mil contract with a 4th tear option
Man that Silva deal really messed up the pitchers market for GMs. Didn’t all the GMs agree it was an anomaly and wouldn’t be used as a reference point?
lets blame the mariners – damn team from the suicide capitol of the u.s.a!!
GMs might have agreed, but certainly not agents.
face it casey the agents are trying to extract every red cent they can – cuz they get 10% – thats motivation
which was my point exactly!
snips thanks for telling me the name of the andrew wk song – i think it would be a great crowd rowsing song pre game – u agree?
The cut is irrelevant. That’s the job. Would you want an agent who would take less than he could get. What a joke, thinking the % is the reason. Maybe you don’t dp your job so you don’t comprehend anyone else doing it.
That line about going down the list in order did concern me, if it was in the right context. If a player is there for the taking, even if it fills need #3 on your list, you need to take care of that item.
But, quite possibly they weren’t that interested, or more likely, didn’t know what budget would be left for him. Not just that they weren’t going to think about it!
There is also the matter of the other SP determining the need for the #5. That is, if they get Lowe, they might be happy with Neise, etc. But, if they got Garland, they would want a “real” guy for #5.
So would Marquis have been decent to pick up? Sure, but who knows if they really need him, or will have the $6mill in the budget (+/-) to pay him!
stickguy i elieve that omar thinks the market is so economicaly fragile that alot of the bigger names will stay out there until the market bears itself out and better deals can be had so us adressing 1 position at a time doesnt concern me
Omar will sell you a beer cheap for agreeing with his strategy.
why is my comment awaiting moderation?
because somebody checked out your facebook page and now they are frightened of you.
lol
[Posted in a dead treade]
Thoughts for the new year:
It is widely (or at least should be) understood that the Mets’ most critical needs at this point are in the starting rotation. It is also widely (albeit untrue) that the Mets’ can’t/won’t increase the payroll this year. So with all that being said, what I believe is possible, and should be done is the following:
Solidify the rotation first. Lowe or Sheets is a must for the #2. For the #5 we will have options.
Secondly we need another corner outfielder. So my whole point of this post is to promote the Mets signing of Rocco Baldelli. He would provide a very solid bat and glove for a reasonable price. The guy is only 27 and used to be (perhaps still is) drunk with potential. Also, presuming he is over his illness, he should be opportune to a (relatively speaking) breakout year. We could live with starting two of the four (Church, Tatis, Murphy, Baldelli) for the first half of the year. At the trading deadline we could as-sess our situation further.
Third we need to finish out the bench. The bench is far more important than shipping Castillo out for nothing. His OBP will be over .350 and as long as his hands remain quick, he is very effective at turning the double play. I, for one, am willing to give Castillo another shot – at least for a couple months of ‘09.
Lastly, if we can upgrade at 2B or C we should.
There is absolutely no reason to sign Manny for big time dollars if we aren’t going to fill everything else out first, and raise the payroll.
In conclusion, the Mets should sign Rocco Baldelli.
Baldelli is HIGHLY intriguing.
Along the same buy-low lines might be Delmon Young… word is that the Twinkies are kinda done with him already. (If he can be had for, say, Kunz-Evans, or even Murphy, that’s a risk that might be worth taking…)
i wouldnt touch delmon young with a 10 foot pole – CAN YOU SAY CARL EVERETT!!!
Young is 22, and he’s got 1300 ML ABs under his belt. He’s also been a top-3 prospect at every level, straight up through the major leagues. The ceiling is IMMENSE.
(Take a look at his numbers… then take a look at, say, Jose Reyes’ numbers at the same age.)
yes but then take a look at his temper he will make lasting millage look like urkel
Delmon Young is definitely a flier. If the guy ever matures he’ll be an amazing player. But, at this point, I’d rather have something more safe/predictable. We have FMart on the way, and Beltran in CF for a while. I’d prefer to see how Murphy and Church do in a full season (if they can stay on the field).
All that being said, if Young is coming cheap, I’m all for it.
You wont get him on the cheap and its
likely he’ll always be a PITA as he is now
and hasn’t gotten paid yet.
Thank you, Seattle! Thank you for destroying the value of starting pitchers for the next four years with your outlandishly stupid contract with Carlos (as average as they come) Silva. Oh, and, of course, thank you for giving slime balls like Scott Boras ammunition in negotiations, like he needed anymore.
if seattle did’t do it we woulda lol
i’d signoff on getting rocco
The Mets should just give D-Lowe 3yrs/45 mil and get their guy. I understand why Minaya did it, but low-balling him like that is just plain stupid and gives other teams hope. It’s obvious that he wants to come back to the Red Sox and he’s waiting to see if they’ll get involved, so why not just give the guy what he wants? We need a 2B (not Castillo or O-Hud), a corner OF, and a C too you know..let’s get our #2 and move on
it’s called negotioating strawgooden – if u are part of a union – thats the process that gets you your raises and benefits
I know what you’re saying rusty..but don’t you think this is taking too long considering the Mets are supposedly the only team in the running for him? Maybe I’m just being hot stove impatient, but we need him and spring training starts in less than a month. Are we going to be able to get a right handed OF bat, a lefty bullpen arm, maybe a #5, a 2B, and a C in that time?
straw i think boras is playing possum – we will come up a bit from our initial offer and boras will come down til we get to common ground – these negotiatons are a game of give and take and we will give more while lowe takes lol
strawgooden: I feel you. But, yes– you’re being hotstoveimpatient. (It’s January, and more than half of the marquee free agents have signed… there’s plenty of options still around.)
rustystaub: I wonder who Boras will pitch as his mystery team in trying to jack up our price.
my guess would be the yanks or the braves
Jan.11th is the day.Thats when Beltron
signed and when Lowe last signed.
I don’t get the big deal made of Lowe not liking the initial offer. If is just that, AN INITIAL OFFER. That is how negotiations work. I mean I am by far expert negotiator but I tend to remember it going something like this. The buyer makes an initial offer that is far below what was originally asked. The seller comes back with an offer closer to what they originally offered but still above the minimum of what they will end up taking. They buyer comes back with a better offer but not quite what the seller asked and in the end they meet in the middle with an agreement both sides like but not love. It has just started but we all know Boras will lie and say someone else is involved to make sure the Mets up their offer. Boras needs the Mets to get his client a decent offer and both sides know it. We will get Lowe and then move on to the fifth starter to compete with Niese which will probably be Pedro since I think he thinks he owes the Mets organization something.
amen ilovenysports
the problem with pedro is what happens if Neise beats out pedro in spring training??? do you really think pedro will go down to the minors? no way I think if the mets sign pedro there will be no competition between him and neise but if we sign someone else (redding to name one) then there can be a compettion but not with pedro
Pedro’s contract=minor-league deal/veteran minimum, with HUGE roster and performance bonuses.
He’s got limited interest around the majors at this point, even from the KCs and SDs.
if pedo signs with the mets – barring injury during s.t he will be the 5th starter with neise down on the farm to wait in the wings
People think its a big deal because they think everyone should bow down to Omar and the Wilpons. They alo think players should have no ability to negotiate or choose just like they are at their workplaces.
d-backs resigned tony clark
Go after the younger Olly and be done with it.
If you look at FIP (fielding-independent pitching), average innings-per-start, and K/BB ratio– all stats that are fairly team-independent– Oliver (G_d love him) is a worse option than Brandon Knight. As a trade throw-in, he’s been a tremendous value… as a 4-year/40+million contract, he’s, well, Carlos Silva as a lefty, with a lot more walks.
hehehe thanks for the knight reference lets face it olie is damaged goods mentally unless u can put the proverbial carrot in fron of his face and tell him every game he pitches is a game againsta contender he will be as mediocre as the day is long
Omar needs to speed things up. Even though he made 2 nice moves, that’s all he’s done. He should have a utility infielder and a lefty relief specialist by now. Stop acting so cheap and waiting to see how much money we have left after the SP signs. It’s ridiculous! We can sign guys like this without having to wait. Did the Cubs wait for Bradley and or Peavy when they signed Aaron Miles for $5 mil for 2 years. What are we waiting for? To see if we have a few million dollars left? Insane – we’re a big market team with a new stadium. ACT LIKE IT!!!
if only it worked that way realmet – except omar broke his magic wand and forgot how to use the jedi mind tricks on boras or we woulda had lowe tex cc already lol
I’ll sign on for the baldelli pickup. We discussed that a few weeks back when the news on his diagnosis came out.
I also think thye should try to snap up sheets, unless there is something horrible wrong with his medical reports (like some unresolved damage). Treeemendous upside potential there!
I still think Lowe will eventually happen, but it would be nice to just get it over with.
Man, with Krod andPutz already, if they lock in Lowe, SHeets and Baldelli, then all they need is a better BU MI and a Lefty for the pen (minor deals) and the team will be loaded for bear.
Yeah, sign Rocco and sheets and watch
as we get nothing but DL time for them
while Omar has to scramble around in-season looking for replacements which
then will cost prospects. Please stop!
Been down that road already.
Sign Lowe then try to bring in the extra OF
Bat and backup Infielder we need.
Wow, what’s new? Sherman is an absolute moron…
And a Yankee fan. Oh,nevermind. One and
the same.
Hahahahaha! Exactly!
to quote kelso from that 70’s show “BURNNNNNN!!!”
You’re right it’s not last year’s economy. Last year the Mets didn’t have a cash cow in a new stadium, fully paid for by the public in order to generate revenue. This year they do, I don’t expect this team to act like the Yankees but I DON’T expect them to act like the Oakland A’s either!!! C’mon Omar!!! Get this done so you can start making this team BETTER than last year. So far, you’ve really only managed to make it as good as last year. Castillo needs to be released and Hudson and Bradley need to be brought in. That makes us better.
Castillos not gonna be released AND
Keep Bradley Away from Flushing.
“Last year the Mets didn’t have a cash cow in a new stadium, fully paid for by the public in order to generate revenue.”
Another person who has no clue what they’re talking about? No, couldn’t be!
Yeah, a switch hitting guy with a cannon for an arm who can hit 20 home runs, we definitely don’t need him.
Which guy would that be ?
The one whos pretty much looked at as a
DH now? or the one whos never hit 20HR?
OR the one whos been bounced off half a
dozen teams already? OR the one whos
a complete nut case? or the one whos pretty
much known as a clubhouse cancer?
Please,give some thought to your post
before posting.
Bradley’s a great hitter… but he’s ALL kinds of hobbly these days. If we were an AL team… maybe. (16 games played in the OF last year, injury-limited time in the NL before that.)
Ted Williams was a great hitter.
Milton Bradley is a NUT!,A 270 hitter, 5Tool
prospect whos never done ANYTHING
noteworthy in his career and who 20yrs
from now will only be remembered for
his temper and the STUPID things hes done
on the baseball field.
22 HRs last season and led the AL in OBP.
I guess you didn’t know that.
Yeah,OK, Got me. Stopped paying attention
to Milton Bradleys stats after the Allstar break
like most Ranger fans did. Still no response though to the rest of my statement.
Some of you want no part of Millage or have
no interest in flipping Castillo to KC for Guillen BUT Bradley whos a bigger headache than either of them you want.
That would be a great fit in the clubhouse.
I want some FIRE on this team. They’re are too many complacent guys on this team. If Bradley came in and forced someone like Wright to be more of a leader, more like someone who runs the clubhouse, I don’t have a problem with it. The same thing with Guillen. I think one or two knuckleheads is ok and would make the clubhouse a little less like a board meeting with all the stiffs they got in there now. A team like the Mets won’t need Bradley or Guillen to the man, just play a role. It might yield results but I don’t think it would break the team apart.
And my point of the original post was to say that I’m tired of the Mets acting like they are out of money. I’m not saying that they should have given Lowe 5 for 90, but a more reasonable offer was warranted. Heyman was on the MLB network last night saying that the longer this hangs around, there’s a chance that the Phillies get involved. I don’t want to see that happen.
They just need to stop acting like they’re living paycheck to paycheck. They’ve got a new stadium a fairly successful network and a lot of money coming off the books next year. Start doing something.
I agree completely with two of your points.
With the amount of money flowing to the
Wilpons the last few years it is a disgrace
to not go out and buy what you want/need
TO WIN. But as a 35+season diehard I’ve
been through this time and again and its
no longer unexpected. AS for the fire in the belly thing,also agree BUT Bradley isn’t the way to go.Nor really is Guillen BUT I’d drive
Luis(aches and pains)Castillo to the airport
if Omar could make that move.
because Bradley has a higher ceiling than Guillen, with the same headache, of course, and we all has to be patient, you can’t bid against your self, it is a business, Lowe most certainly will not sign with another team without checking with the Mets first, I’ll sign Sheets first, the will make Boras think twice about fooling around, if Sheets could pitch 200 inn. like he has done in the past, it will be a helluva acquisition for the5th spot and Niese could go back to AAA on more year. Go after Marti, the Cuban defector.
Metskin:
“I want some FIRE on this team. They’re are too many complacent guys on this team. If Bradley came in and forced someone like Wright to be more of a leader, more like someone who runs the clubhouse, I don’t have a problem with it.”
Why would Bradley force someone like Wright to be a leader? Why are you certain that’s a good thing?
Bradley has played for 6 teams in 9 seasons. He played only 126 games last season despite being a DH. Dude simply CAN NOT stay healthy. Do we need that with Church and Slappy already on the team?
Fong, I’m not saying they are the complete answer, I just think that even if they get Lowe, they are just the same team as last year with a better bullpen. It doesn’t take into account the offensive gaps that I see potentially hitting this lineup. We are devoid of hitting at catcher, second base and pitcher. We don’t know what to really expect from the left field plateau or our first basemen. That’s half the lineup! I’d rather see some more guys offensively that can pick up the slack. This idea that we’re guaranteed to be just as good offensively next year as we were last year is flawed thinking in my opinion.
That is why we finished second last year, the BP, the offense was good, we could improve on that but is not really our aquiles tendon, we need to fill the void Martinez/Perez, Lowe/Sheets will be a better tandem than last year, I’m confident that it will be done.
“even if they get Lowe, they are just the same team as last year with a better bullpen.”
That team wins the division easily. Last years team with a decent bullpen that lets say blows 10 less saves (thats still 19 blown) would have won the division by NINE GAMES!!! NINE!!!! so dont start preaching about how thats a bad team. Granted thats not including regresses in Tatis, Murphy, or Delgado, but that wasnt what part of your statement.
“Granted thats not including regresses in Tatis, Murphy, or Delgado, but that wasnt what part of your statement.”
Actually, I think Metskin was factoring in the regression of those players (particularly Delgado and Tatis). That’s why he’s unhappy that it’ll be the “same team as last year”.
Not to mention regression w/our Catchers
and Situation w/Church which could be a
complete nightmare.
Again,Agreed. Lowe is a must! We need
another top of the rotation SP so that Pelf
and Maine can slide to 3and4.With Lowe
you also get high # of quality Innings so
both Mid-relief and whoever(Niese?)is our
#5 are bolstered.Lowe would alleviate the
need to sign any other Pitchers.The Lineup
does need a boost no doubt. Reyes,Wright
&Beltron should be as good good or better.
Delgado,Well lets hope that healthy,playing
for his last contract will be atleast close to
last year.EVERYTHING is LF,RF,C&2B
are all below average. Of Course Manny
would fix alot of those probs.But that ain’t
gonna happen. I know he can be iffy in the
field BUT boy do I like the Idea of Abreau in the 2hole.with his ability to hit deep in the count and really all he does offensively,it
would seem to be a good fit.I know,I know
hes a lefty but with him it doesn’t matter.
We’re pretty much stuck w/Castillo and our
Catchers so,options are limited.
The man is on the downside of a slightly better than average career. And you make him out to be an ace. Wake up, open the eyes, open the brain and then hope Minaya doesn’t give us the next verion of Pedro/ElDuque/Alou……
Just for the record I’ll go after Hudson even if we can’t trade Castillo.
wheres Hudson gonna play?
That sure is one expensive bench player. But hey, they’re the Mets and they grow money on trees.
Yeah, And spend like the yankees:)
He will play 2B, I don’t care where the put Castillo.
You are right and if this was a big market team that is what would happen, but the Wilpon’s want to be small market as much as possible without losing the fan base so we get a half%%% effort every year…..
I have been saying this for weeks “D. Lowe will NOT be a NY Met” sorry …go ahaead and bash me…I just dont think he wants to be a Met..if Omar would just go 3/45 and find out we could move on to Sheets/Ollie ..but Nooooooo we wanna play games with the guy..hes not coming to NY..and neither is Manny…not the way I want it or any one else in here..but Omar is not helping by taking his time…the Dodgers will save 12m on the Jones release and get Manny back..and once the Sox or Phils jump in on Lowe its byebye 2009 W.S.
Well lets hope your wrong.
Sheets b/t/w would be a disaster.
Sheets without Lowe would be a disaster yes.
Sheets with Lowe is intriguing because as it is right now with out sheets (asuming Lowe is in the rotation) Neise is our number 5 so i see sheets as an upgrade because when he is down your no worse off then before.
Reply
Based on what? Does bradley have a
“higher ceiling”. And if the Wilpons dont
want Manny in their clubhouse,They’re
gonna sign bradley whos not only a nut
but unlike Manny is a bad guy? C’mon!
Think People!
Because he is younger, a better player, put up better # than Guillen he is do for a monster season, I’m not saying to sign Bradley for 10 years at 20M, you could sign Bradley for about 16M for two years and will be a great upgrade over Murphy/Tatis.
Chin-Lung Hu…who? Yeah, I knew I should have checked it….
If we do get Lowe, then I think you would have to pitch Maine in the 3rd spot and Pelfrey 4th. I don’t think Manuel would want two hard throwing sinkerballers back to back. Maine gets his K’s upstairs. Lowe throwing sinkers, Maine bringing high heat and then Pelfrey throwing sinkers again. That should drive people nuts.
Agreed and think Lowe could only be very
helpful to Pelphrey.He is the best ground
ball pitcher in the game.Another reason to
hope Castillo can still play alittle.
I remember when Josh Hamilton was a nut case, nobody wants to do nothing with him, the Reds gave him a chance and them trade him for very good prospects, the same thing could happen with Bradley and he was not too crazy last year, maybe he is beginning to settle down.
Hamilton wasn’t so much a nut case as he was a drug addict.
Look garfios, YOU may think Bradley is
a good player and better than Guillen BUT
no one else does. Because?,He’s not AND
he’s not.Not a better overall hitter and not a
better overall fielder.Now I dont want Guillen
here either BUT if it meant ridding us of Luis
Aches&Pains then worth the gamble.Since his contract is up@ end of this season.
Bradley,on the other hand you want to commit to for a couple yrs?absurd!
Again,outside of last yrs playing for acontract
w/no pressure w/no one paying attention in
Texas for a mgr who he had a relationship
with, He still only gave them 3/4 of aseason.
Because,hes always breaking down.
And THEY dont want him back.
Now,to bring Hamilton into the conversation
is apples&Oranges. Hamilton wasn’t a bad
guy but a junkie. And yes,no doubt the Reds
made a great deal for a top-tier SP BUT
you think we’d sign Bradley,he’d control himself,do well,we’d contend and trade
him for a #1or2 SP? How does any of that
make sense? What the heck is your point?
You like Milton Bradley? OK,Great. You dont
win with players you cant depend on AND
you cant depend on Milton Bradley. Sign him
and you have no clue what we’d get.
“You dont win with players you cant depend on AND
you cant depend on Milton Bradley. Sign him
and you have no clue what we’d get.”
Well put.
There is no question that Bradley is a better hitter than Guillen. It’s not even debatable. Guillen’s .739 OPS last season put him in range with the likes of Kosuke Fukudome and the powerhouse Ryan Theriot.
If Bradley wasn’t injury prone, he’d be a star. Guillen will always be a guy who hits some homers but whose lack of plate discipline and selfish play prevent him from being more than a league average player.
Drugs, alcohol etc. doesn’t count, common, not only drugs and alcohol could make crazy but it will erode your skills too.
I just think that comparing Josh Hamilton to Milton Bradley is a huge stretch. Hamilton is 27, still on the rise, while Bradley is 30, has likely reached his plateau and will soon be on the way down. Hamilton was the first overall pick in the draft, Bradley a second round pick. Hamilton is tested 3 times a week for drug use. As soon as they develop a test for crazy and subject Bradley to it 3 times a week maybe I’ll consider lobbying for his addition, but until then…
Thank you Richie! But just testing Bradley
wouldn’t help ’cause just like stupid,theres
no cure for friggin crazy.
My pleasure. I think the most relevant point you made above is about his lack of reliability health wise. Even if he were to “normal out” mentally, physically he’s only played in over 101 games in a season twice in 9 seasons! In the 2 years he was over that total, he still missed 21 and 36 games. This Mets team can not invest in someone that unreliable.
You don’t want Bradley becuase he’s 30 but you want 35 year old Lowe. Is that consistent thought? Why is a pitcher at that age not too old but a hitter at 30 too old? Does your tongue look like a fork?
Saying Guillen is as good as Bradley is a little ridiculous. Guillen, whole package included, is worth about ten wins less than Bradley over the past seven seasons. A very strong sample size. Bradley has been far more consistent and shows much more upside. Looking at generally accepted projections:
Marcel:
Bradley 79.3 wRC, Guillen 64.5 wRC
Bill James:
Bradley 79.2 wRC, Guillen 66.8 wRC
CHONE:
Bradley 3 WAR, Guillen 1.1 WAR
Guillen is not even in the same ballpark as Bradley.
BTW, those numbers already factor in playing time. With Bradley expected to play 114-123 games and Guillen expected to play 138-145.
I’ll reveal my ignorance of your nom de plume by asking a couple of questions:
When you say “Guillen is worth 10 wins less than Bradley over the past 7 seasons” is that per season or total?
and
Do those projections take into account injury history/missed games?
Nevermind the games played bit, I see you answered that while I was typing. Thank you.
Yeah, I forgot to mention that they do factor in injuries. I added a short addendum afterwards. 10 wins total, so 1.4/year. Which considering how close we’ve been the last two seasons is huge. But furthermore the trend is opposite for the two players. Bradley is showing a tendency to improve his plate discipline and power while Guillen is striking out more and his power is becoming more erratic.
Over the past 3 seasons, Bradley has been worth 5.1 wins more than Guillen.
Absurd!
Cool. Thanks for sharing the knowledge. I’m hoping the Mets carefully sidestep both of them, but I appreciate your help in my understanding which hothead would likely be more productive from a sabermetric perspective if acquiring one of them proves inevitable.
Not cool but stupid.
No offense, sabes.
I know you mean no offense. You’re a good poster, but I absolutely disagree with the Guillen/Bradley comparison. I think the point is moot, because I doubt that we end up with either of them, but it’s important to look at facts.
Now on the subject of really important things: we NEED to sign Lowe.
Just that the whole sabermetrics thing
has driven me crazy since I picked-up
James’ first book 25yrs ago at a small bookstore on B’way&83rdstreet. Too many
variables in baseball which is the very reason for its greatness. Lowe is a perfect
example.I’m sure you can find available
SPs who have some #s which are superior
to his BUT this guy is a winner,gamer,tough
guy and exactly what we need. Plus, again
his likely help to Pelphrey, being similar
type Pitchers can’t be accurately measured.
Agreed though Bradley/Guillen is a moot
point ’cause neither is real good,dont want
either and neither is coming.
Well we are not signing Manny, Guillen/Bradley are crazy, what else is out there that really fit in the lineup? right handed outfielder with pop.
fungulalou I hear you about sabermetrics, in that they give me a headache. I see their usefulness as a tool in the toolbox, but I scratch my head when they tell me that Jack Cust is a more valuable player than Jose Reyes.
Or that ARod is more valuable than Jeter.
Since you are so smart when will Lowe break down? First year, second year…Does his body defy age?
Braver at jumping into seats? Maybe. Better taste in women? Definitely. But if you think Captain Intangibles is or ever has been a better player than A-Rod– offensively or defensively– you’re ****ing high. (It’s a bit– nay, a LOT like comparing Mookie or Lenny to Beltran… the former two have rings, will likely be more fondly remembered than Carlos– barring a champeenship– and are miles less useful.)
Please, My Friend for second think. Not about
numbers but a real ball game,at the highest
level, on the largest stage.Now,2out,bottom
9,bases loaded,down a run. Win and a championship,lose YOU get a bullet to the back of the head. YOUR choice at the Plate:
Jeter or ARod?
And we will sign him, they will go back and forth a few time and he will be sign 3 years/40-42M
Heres hoping. Then do we move onto Manny?
garfios said above: “Well we are not signing Manny, Guillen/Bradley are crazy, what else is out there that really fit in the lineup? right handed outfielder with pop.”
Using solely 2008 and solely the sabermetric WPA, Pat Burrell is the guy. Manny led the majors with 7.57, the next available free agent is Burrell who was 13th last season with 3.92
I don’t know about Burrell, we need a crazy guy in our club, Marlins, Nationals and Phillis don’t have any respect at all, they act like they can walk all over us any time the feel like it, and I’m not talking just in baseball.
Burrell can still hit. But if he wants more than a one or two year deal, it may get painful watching him get old in the outfield. He’s already got his feet in concrete.
Again,please stop with the sabermetrics.
What the heck exactly did/has Billy Beane
won using them? And Theo Epstein? How
many rings do they win w/o Ortiz,Manny&
Schilling?
Beane: 4 division championships, 3 2nd-place finishes in last 9 years, with average payroll in the league’s lower quarter.
Sabes and other “newfangled” metrics are, simply, honest attempts by intelligent people to try and capture the actual value of players, something that largely slips through the lacunae of the traditional stat set. They’re not gospel, just a useful tool.
If discussions which reference them– among more trad stats like BA and ERA– give you a headache rather than piquing your curiosity, then perhaps you’d prefer to shuffle over to the ‘FAN caller queue, or try checkers.
If Church– a slightly above-average fielder according to most metrics out there– can stay healthy, then it kinda won’t matter so much if we have Dunn/Burrell/Ramirez/Abreu in the other corner. Beltran’s range in center papers over a LOT, and if we’re solid in one corner, he can cheat all the more as appropriate toward the Manny/Pat the Bat side. (I mean, Christ… we’ve had Alou and hobbled Cliffy there in the last three years, not to mention that every sub we’ve had in whose name doesn’t rhyme with “Mendy Thavez” has been at Babe-Ruth-League level, fielding-wise.)
Right-handed OF with pop, eh?
Baldelli could be an interesting experiment (and, even if limited by health, would be a hell of a pinch-hitter/-runner off the bench).
If you prefer predictability (even at the cost of a lower ceiling), Millar could be a nice complimentary piece as 1B/OF.
You show your knowledge of the game by
–in any way mentioning Manny with Dunn,
Abreau&Burrell. And Baldelli? c’mon you
dont even know if he canplay and how much
due to his health issues. we’re gonna go through that again? Millar OK,maybe. I wanted
him the last 2 yrs and was hammered for it here.But Ok if mgmt thinks he can still play a little Left&Right because Church,even if healthy is ahuge ??
Hey Jackoff,no reason to insult. What you
failed to mention is that Beane”won” division
three ace pitchers in their primes and a bunch of steroid freak position players.
And won no titles despite those players
being in a position to do so yearly.
Yes,I do see the usefulness of all stats and
have for the 35yrs I’m following this game
but there are so many things that can’t be
measured w/them that to run your franchise
based on them is absurd.
My point is stats can and usually are misleading. Eyes and Titles don’t lie—-
Again, just ask Billy Beane.
Just my well-educated opinion.
No reason for insult and personal attack.
My fellow fan started whiping out stats telling
us Bradley was worth more wins per season
then Guillen(both of whom stink anyway)
And add’l point is how can anyone say that
as both have been no better than 5th or 6th
best hitter in their lineups on mostly bad teams.Jeez,you sound like a “newfangled”
progressive, Disagree with you and I’m a
dopey dirtbag.
I’m not attacking you; I’m attacking what you said (albeit a bit harshly). Because what you said– your words, not you– was kinda dumb.
When you’re saying “stop it with the sabermetrics,” you’re dismissing an entire way of seeing. Can sabermetrics misjudge– or not fully describe the value– of certain players? Sure. But are they a valuable way of viewing/describing a lot of what’s going on on the field? Um, yes.
As far as eyes not lying? They’re great for telling the story of the game– my memories of seeing Endy’s catch, or El Sid when on his game are . Eyes and objective description, though? There’s a reason why heavily-scouted first-round picks fail on a yearly basis…. and why prosecutors rarely convict on eyewitness accounts without hard physical evidence. Eyes are useful… but in conjunction with the human brain, they lie.
Bradley got on base last year at a higher clip than almost anyone else in baseball last year, and has slugged . Your not liking him as a player– or as the man you seem to think he is– is your prerogative… but to say that he’s crap, and offer nothing in support but THAT you think he’s crap? Well, don’t expect me– or most any other objective observer– to agree with you.
*slugged at a .550 clip over the last two seasons. (Left that part out, thanks to fat thumbs.)
garfios – agreed. there should be a few guys in the NL east with bullseyes on their backs this year. all i know is rollings betterget hit hard.
Ok.,But understand I don’t think either Bradley
or guillen are “crap”.They are solid ballplayers
playing on the highest level in the world.
That said, they are both neither star nor even
well-above-average players while both are
paid as such And as I’ve stated 3times already haven’t been any better than the 5th
best players on some pretty bad teams.
That along with their baggage make them
undesireable to both me and thankfully mgmt..
Let’s see how Minaya works his way out of this conundrum… we need 2 starters, a LF and more bullpen help….
u kidding me right? The man signs Krod on the cheap, steals Putz and you still want him fired? We need only 1 more real starter and it wil be lowe or Perez. Our bullpen is solid and is a minor problem. The only beef you have is with LF and if you minus Manny, there aint much out there. Its not like if we sign Dunn we are that much better. Our problem was clutch hitting. Dunn is a nice player, but he aint clutch.
Get off Omars back already. Year in and year out he pulls rabbits. There aint too many better GMs out there. Think about….we could have cashman.
Could you imagine the Coupons and Cashman we would have 12 players total in the organization. and out of that 7 would be on the DL.
In terms of OBP and power number rates, Bradley was the best hitter on the playoff-contending Dodgers in 2006, and on both the contender Padres and the A’s in 2007 (albeit in limited ABs)… and the best hitter overall– even over wonderboy Josh Hamilton– on a Rangers team that led the AL in runs last year. What he does have is apparent tenderness issues (knee, hamstring, back) that have limited his ABs beri, beri much.
So as to whether he’s a good player (or even on the same level as Guillen, who’s a slightly-above-replacement-level platoon guy with pop)? I respectfully disagree. I think he’s a better fit in the AL at this time of his career, though… and I agree that mgmt doesn’t seem interested in what he’s got to offer.
As for OF problem, though… Baldelli? Millar? How much do you think we need a lefty?
*I meant, someone who ISN’T a lefty hitter.
Personally, I like Dunn, Abreu OR Manny (as a 2-year rental). Or, if you want to go young, we could dangle Murphy (who I love, but is limited, and not a great fit for us positionally, as a natural 3B) and someone else (Kunz?) for a younger, cheaper option (McLouth? Ludwick?).
OK… OK… OK…OK… OK… OK…OK… OK… OK…
Mets fans it’s time.
Time to find out where you stand.
Do you believe Mets have enough to win NL East in 2009 (a-s-suming they sign Lowe or Perez)?
Give the biggest reason why or why not.
make your voices heard cmon.
My Vote Is NO we do not have enough due to lineup too many ???’s
I think the division is more of a chance with Lowe but with Perez we should (barring unforseeable circumstances) make at least wild card. After that you can’t predict the playoffs. But Even just the division or wild card is hard to predict. I mean who saw the Rays winning 97 games or the Brewers trading for Sabathia before last season? So I’d like to hope that with Lowe/Perez that we make it.
The Mets must get this acquisition done in order to let the other teams in the NL who is in charge. If the Mets do sign him, the Phillies might actually shut up
sorry left out the “know” in the phrase ” who is in charge”
boy, the Phillies know you don’t win pennants in December and January. Minaya retires when Spring Training starts. Philly fills its holes during the year. You win in April thru Sept. When Minaya and the babies in Queens figure this out then and only then will the Phillies shut up.
Huh? Phillies fill their holes during the year? IIRC, they filled all their major holes during the winter last year — with Lidge, other bullpen moves, and Werth.
I’d rather most big holes be fixed during the winter when possible … but it matters more how smart the moves are than when you make them.
Probably referencing the moves for Blanton and Stairs, which payed off bigger than any Phillies fan ever thought they would. 20/20 Hindsight.
“Philly fills its holes during the year. You win in April thru Sept.”
I think he was just alluding to the fact that the games still have to be played (i.e. acquiring players is great, but only when Lidge goes 41 for 41 DURING the season is anything proven).
The idea that the Mets need to “show the NL who is in charge” is absolutely ridiculous. Do you have some sort of inferiority complex? Do you think other teams will be shaking in their boots? No, they’ll show up to play just like the Mets will. You show it on the field, not in January.
Doubt anything but not winning the Division would shut the Phillies up, and, who can blame them?
Just so everyone knows tonight on the new MLB Network, Hot Stove Live will be talking to Omar. If you are a Met fan and have the MLB Network on your television YOU HAVE TO WATCH THIS. It is on at 7pm.
I’m interested to see just what the new network brings to the table. I mean, obviously there will be no new hot stove information given tonight.
What is this junk that we have to watch it. Will Bush’s police arrest us if we don’t? Will lightning strike our dish and strike us dead?
You should be more worried about the incoming administration taking away your
rights.Socialists are not conservative.
alright, way off topic, but people need to stop purporting Bush to be some champion of conservatism. Our rights WERE infringed upon, more so by this “conservatism” than any administration we’ve ever had prior to that. Agree with it or disagree with it, but it’s true. Never before has this country had something like the Patriotic Act. So if you’re so worried about government taking away your rights, its already been done. We don’t have the privacy we used to. Sure, hid behind your vail of “conservatism”, but just because that’s what it’s called, doesn’t make it what it is. Convservatives (who supposely increase freedoms as you seem to think) don’t spend more than any administration previously had dreamed of spending, they don’t force our nation into war, they don’t take away our privacy. I’m not saying any of this stuff is bad, but to call is “small government conservatism” needs to stop. Bush said one thing ( in 2000 when he ran) and become someone entirely different. Deal with it.
You’re absolutely right Darkstar, Bush’s presidency WASN’T conservatism. It WASN’T what he said it’d be, and rights WERE taken away by the Patriot act. However, “forcing” us into war, when WE were attacked, right there in New York, is a false statement, and regardless of what Bush did, electing a SOCIALIST to be our president, because a “conservative” (I’d actually call him a Liberal Republican) took away our rights is just stupid and expect even MORE of our rights to be taken away.
You know he’s not going to say anything really revealing. I bet he’ll say that a top starter is their main priority now and that as of now Castillo is still slated for 2nd.
Let us know what he says anyway. On Time Warner it’s by subscription only and I don’t get that channel
Hey VC, happy new year.
I got TW also, from Albany.
Getting MLB free intro on channel 621; not sure for how long tho.
Check it out.
(Right now is Phillies beating Dodgers last year and tonite is Cards knocking us out in ‘06; so all you are missing is pain!)
Yea I didnt expect much either. He did mention Lowe was the name they were looking at, and if not him the only other actual name of a pitcher he mentioned was Wolf. Also he discussed why he thought a being a big market team is more of an advantage than a disadvantage. Another thing he stated was that whenever the club is thinking about signing someone they check their injury history, as it is very important. He didnt say anything that made you say “OMG HE JUST SAID THAT” but the reason I said you have to watch this is because it let us Met fans know what is going through his mind right now. Did you know that he is the first Latino GM in the bigs? I have to say I did not know that.
And to you guys who argued about Bush and and all that, give it a freakin rest. If you want to talk about politics, dont do it on MetsBlog. Go on BushBlog or ObamaBlog or heck, even PalinBlog.
Omar should stand pat on Lowe for now. No one is going to pay him what Boris thinks he’s worth so just wait him out and raise it a little at the end. But if anyone gives Lowe more than $13 mill a year they are crazy.
Guessing that Lowe goes for either 13.5 for three, or 12.5 to 13.5 over four. He’s over-priced, but still the best SP left available. Someone will pay him. If I had to make a bet it would be more years, less money that would get the job done. All things considered, the Mets are still in the best position to land him.
pls no politics on here………….
True dat.
Baseball=politics
Not True dat.
Responding to a comment above…… Murphy and Kunz would not be nearly enough for McClout, who I think is a bit overrated.
Ludwick is not worth the asking price. I’d rather roll the dice on Abreu, Dunn, etc…..
If Jones is released, he will add to the list of potential corner OF that could be had in this market. The list is huge. Omar will snag one of them.
If we were a small market team with holes to fill in the everyday lineup, there is a great veteran bargain at nearly every position. This is a year when those teams should scoop up some of these guys on the cheap and try to restore some credibility to their franchises.
Maybe this also means that Lowe is to be signed soon by Mets too. Afterall, in a way if Castillo is dumped to LAD, it does allow Mets to free up $$ after 09 to pay Lowe more/yr or for more yrs. Wishful thinkin on my part most likely.
Several principles people on this board do not understand:
1-Mets will not go over 143MM payroll
2-Mets do not dump contracts
Hence, forget Castillo being released. Forget about Manny. Lowe (or Perez) will be the last major $$ move.
Didn’t the Mets release a second baseman with a similar number of years / dollars left on his contract just a few years ago?
If you are referring Kaz Mat, he had less than 1 yr left on his contract. Same with Alomar. Castillo has 3 yrs. I would not equate either to this situation.
And neither Kaz Mat or Alomar were released. They were traded. Even more evidence that Mets almost never release players. The Wilpons simply don’t like to pay someone if they are not working for the team. Even stories were reported about how they would be very happy if Willie R had gotten Brewers job so they would be off the hook for his pay.
Why wouldn’t they be happy about that? If I had fired Willie and could have been off the hook for his salary I would be happy too.
The only people the Mets don’t have a problem paying are managers they don’t have a problem paying them after firing them
SATURDAY, 11:23am: Buster Olney’s sources tell him that Jones will receive the $15MM he’s owed in 2009 over the next six seasons, without interest. Apparently the Dodgers are likely to call the Braves, Reds and Mets about potential trades. One source familiar with the discussions said it’s virtually certain that the Mets won’t be interested.
That’s some good news at least.
You know what scares me, the world virtually. It was virtually impossible we could get Santana. It was virtually impossible we could get Krod AND Putz. While the Yankees were looking at pitching and before the Phillies signed Ibanez it was virtually impossible for us to be serious contenders for Lowe. With Minaya virtually impossible means almost definite which is normally nice but really sux here.
Using this logic I’m going to try something.
It is virtually impossible for the Mets to sign Manny Ramirez.
It is virtually impossible for either the Mets to trade Luis Castillo or Castillo to be a decent ball player this year.
It is Virtually impossible that Jonathan Niese is the next Tom Seaver.
It is Virtually impossible for Murphy and Tatis continue their success they had last year.
It is Virtually impossible that Carlos Delgado is not going to fall back to his early 2008 self.
AND FINALLY
It is Virtually Impossible that the NY Mets become a dynasty starting this year.
Hopefully all the past virtually impossibles are enough to make the majority of this list come true
He wouldn’t be the worst option if they didn’t ask for much and paid down some of his contract. The guy has something to prove, and he probably still has at least some baseball left in him. Why dismiss it before even hearing them out?
I saw a lot of earlier comments regarding Minaya’s– fixing one problem at a time strategy.
Yes it would make more sense to work on all positions that need to be filled at one time so as not to miss out on the market. The problem is budgetary. It is pretty clear that Minaya is on a short leash on how much he can spend this off season. Let’s say he has 25 million left to spend this off season. If he signs an outfielder like, say, Dunn now for 12 million a year, he only has 13 million left for the rest of the positions that he has to fill. That is why he is going to wait until he has his most important position filled (namely SP) until he works on other upgrades.
I do have to admitt this makes for a very boring off season though.
yet still, this strategy means that the best deals at other positions (dunn, manny for LF, etc.) will dissapear while we wait for Lowe.
To a certain extent…maybe…at this point I think the market is so jammed up i do not think that any 2nd rung pitchers are going to move until Lowe and OP sign and no OF’s are going to move until Manny gets his contract to provide a comparisson for the guys like Dunn and Abreu to strive for in their contracts.
Don’t worry about Manny anyway,…it is pretty clear the Mets are not going to sign him this off season unless the Giants and Dodgers cave and Manny becomes a 1 year bargain. For that, they have to wait anyway.
The problem I have with his strategy is this:
We need a utility infielder and another lefty bullpen guy, so can’t we be working on them as well? Hairston is still out there and would be a perfect fit. Ohman still hasn’t signed anywhere and I don’t want to miss out on him because we are in a staring contest with Lowe/Boras. As far as the 5th starter and LF situation goes, I can totally see waiting to see what happens, because those things depend on what happens with Lowe, but the other two do not. We need those things no matter who we get for the rotation, and the cost won’t change no matter who we slot in there, so don’t miss out on the Bradford we need and get stuck with another Schoenweis! Can’t we at least learn from our past mistakes? Is that too much to ask?
Chico,
I don’t think we are far appart on this and Iguess I am not defending the strategy as much as explaining it.
I have to think that these other small holes such as utility infielders and LHP for the pen that he does have his feelers out there for because your right, there is no reason that we can’t give out a 1.2 million deal now or whatever it takes to get a utility IF (although I am not entirely sure if the organization plans on bringing in another lefty or just go with the 1 specialist and Green to try and root out some grounders. If they bring in a lefty starter they might just go with Feliciano. Yikes! Ohman I doubt they are going to spend on, as nice as he would be to have).
The good news is, the piddly hole fillers you are talking about are usually the last people to sign in the off season anyway, so they will likely be available when we have everything else straightened out anyway.
what happened to pat burrell talks? he might just fight well in citi field