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In a report for Newsday, Kat O’Brien explains, “Things could get busy again in the baseball world this week. For the Mets, negotiations are expected to heat up for Derek Lowe.”
In an on-air report for the MLB Network, SI.com’s Jon Heyman recently said Lowe rejected Omar Minaya’s three-year, $36 million offer, because he is seeking $16 million per season.
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus believes Lowe is still seeking a five-year, $80 million deal, like he was at the start of the off-season.
According to Heyman, the Braves, Phillies and Red Sox, and maybe the Brewers and Angels, are also showing interest in Lowe.
However, Atlanta reporter Mark Bowman of MLB.com believes, while the Braves are interested in Lowe, they are not interested in such a heavy price tag, coloring their interest as ‘moderate,’ adding, ‘Lowe’s cost is going to have to drop.’
The thing is, as David O’Brien pointed out in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently, if the Braves were willing to give A.J. Burnett a five-year, $80 million deal, why are they unwilling to give Lowe a guaranteed four-year deal?
In the end, I still believe Lowe’s options are limited. So, to get a deal done in a ‘reasonable time frame,’ the Mets may have to either goose up his annual pay or provide an easily-attained fourth year to the deal.
Or, Minaya can wait it out, but risk some other team getting involved – all while holding on to cash that could be used for other players, who may walk by him for new teams.
Speaking of starting pitchers…
According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, the Braves could have acquired Jake Peavy from the Padres in November, but they did not want to add a full no-trade clause to his current contract.
In Olney’s opinion, the Braves should give in and move Yunel Escobar to San Diego, acquire Peavy, add in his no-trade, and sign free-agent infielder Orlando Cabrera to be their shortstop.
Offer Ben sheets the same amount.. see what happens.. i’d take a risk on sheets based on how good he can be if healthy.. we can have wolff or garland as our #5 starters depending who we sign.. Lowe+ wolff.. Sheets+garland.. that way we have a staedy guy to go along with an injury prone guy..
Anyone offering Sheets 3/36 right now is insane.
Maybe 2/20 with incentives.
TRS:
based on incentives i meant to say.. but i tell you, if he was healthy all the time, he’d be easily looking at 18 millions a year.. i want him becoz i think we can survive if he goes on his usual visit to the dl..
That’s interesting. Who exactly do you have taking his place in the rotation?
Niese, if Garland or Wolf is signed as well.
I kinda like the Sheets/Garland scenario myself.
If Sheets would take 3 for 36 I’d sign him today, and rejoice! I’d even tack on a 4th year team option. That still gives the Mets 8 million of cap room before reaching last year’s total. I’d go after Oliver Perez next with a 4 for 44 deal. Johan, Sheets, Perez, Pelfrey, Maine…that rotation is beautiful. If the Mets were intent on not spending on Manny, and keeping their payroll close to where it was last year, this is undoubtedly the best course of action to take. Well, that and then doing my three previously suggested moves of flipping Castillo in a three way for Downs, trading Schneider for Freel, and going after either Saltalamaccia or Teagarden.
I’d then also see if Alou would come back at a bargain basement rate of maybe target Billy Butler from KC.
Obviously the preference here is to still add Manny instead of Alou or Butler….but this team would cost the same as last year’s if executed as outlined…
1)SS – Jose Reyes
2)RF – Ryan Church
3)3B – David Wright
4)1B – Carlos Delgado
5)CF – Carlos Beltran
6)LF – Moises Alou or Billy Butler
7)C – Saltalamaccia or Teagarden
8)2B – Daniel Murphy/Ryan Freel
Johan, Sheets, Ollie, Pelfrey, Maine
F-Rod, Putz, Downs, Sanchez, Feliciano, Green, Parnell
Castro, Tatis, Freel/Murphy, Reed, Easley or Vizquel(probably Anderson….)
‘m sorry, did o misread or did u just mention “MOISES ALOU”??
Dude, you’re nuts. You want to find someone willing to take on Castillo’s salary, trade Schneider for Freel (straight up?), somehow trade for Salty (who by the way last July cost a Teixera), give 36m to Sheets AND sign Ollie (for how much?). And above all else sign Alou. wow….no….WOW
YES Gentlemen, Moises Alou. What we’re looking at right now is Tatis and Murphy…I believe you’re all knowledgeable enough to concede that Alou would put up better numbers than a Tatis/Murphy platoon if healthy…well, if Alou got hurt, we’d have that platoon anyway. No harm, no foul. Might as well re-sign Alou then….if the Mets aren’t smart enough/care enough what have you to add Manny.
Castillo and Muniz to St. Louis for Kennedy, and then Kennedy and Evans to Toronto works. Anyone with any sort of a working baseball knowledge can readily see this. The same goes for Schneider to Baltimore for Freel. As for Saltalamaccia or Teagarden…the Mets have the pieces to get it done.
Kherubconamor:
ARE YOU SERIOUS??????
Alex….as serious as blowing a 7 game lead with 17 left to play….I WANT MANNY, don’t get me wrong. I WANT MANNY. BADLY. But, what are ya gonna do ya know? I mean…these are the same goons who decided it was a good idea to draft Ike Davis 16th over all last year…so…who knows what they’re thinking.
Lol, agree on that, but believe me, no alou.. plain and simple..
Ok – you do realize that every person takes up a spot on the roster. And Alou is not even worth that. And no, I don’t think he will provide anything more than Tatis/Murphy. He is not a significant improvement – so why even bother? The key to your argument is “if healthy” – which i think we all are knowledgeable enough to concede that there is 0 chance that he will be. Might as well sign El Duque to be your long reliever….
Castillo and Muniz to St. Louis for Kennedy – why oh why would St. Louis agree to this? Kennedy is essentially the same player, just younger and who’s owed only $4m for 2009. Why would they take on $18m of Castillo? For Muniz? I don’t think so.
Why does Baltimore want Schneider? They already have a catcher they’re trying to get rid of…
As for Saltalamaccia or Teagarden…the Mets have the pieces to get it done. Here’s the biggest hole in your whole set up. What pieces? FMart? Niese? Parnell? Pelfrey? Murphy? Who are you trading?
Zer09 –
Alou is worth a roster spot, and would put up better numbers in Left than a Tatis/Murphy platoon. What do you think we’ll get out of Left right now with what’s in the organization? .260 12 60…if that? Alou can still hit…when healthy. So what, he’ll get hurt; then we’ll be left with what we have anyway. No big whoop. Try not to over value a roster spot. As for El Duque…I have no problem extending him a Minor League contract.
The Cardinals would get a the lead-off hitter they lack in Castillo for just 2 million more than they’re paying Kennedy. Muniz defrays the additional expense, the Cards lack depth and two for one here would be great for them. Kennedy has never scored 100 Runs in his entire career, but Castillo probably would batting lead-off in front of Pujols and company. Kennedy had a .321 OBP last year, and Castillo had a .355 OBP in a toxic environment and a down year. The Cardinals would be stupid not to take advantage of this opportunity.
Baltimore is looking to acquire a Catcher, and were recently talking to Pudge. They traded Ramon Hernandez to save money, and Had to take back Freel because of his contract. If they can then trade off that contract for Schneider they’d essentially get their segue Catcher into Wieters for like a million+….not bad. They have no place for Freel to play really. He’s highly expendable in my opinion.
I think Niese, Kunz, and Bowman is a very fair deal for Saltalamaccia or Teagarden. I’d swap out Bowman for Jennry Marte(a 4 star prospect) if need be. What about John Maine? I’d give them Maine straight up, and then go with Niese /Parnell for the fifth spot if I had to…or better yet BEN SHEETS!! Bottom line is the Mets have the pieces to get it done.
or* not of….
I’m sorry but I can’t see known of that happening. Why would Toronto want a lousy muniz and an unproven Evans for a really good lefty?? Why would Baltimore trade ramon hernandez for freel just to turn around and trade him to the mets for schneider?? Why would Texas trade us one of the 2 guys you mentioned for niese and bowman etc?? Why would we want to trade our best or second best pitching prospect for an unproven catcher. I don’t know much about teagarden but salty hasn’t been as impressive as advertised. Alou?? Please no. I would rather invite Sammy Sosa, bernie Williams, and barry bonds to spring training then see alou back with the mets.
Brapp -
My proposal to Toronto for Downs was Evans and Adam Kennedy. Kennedy upgrades their infield, and cost the same as Downs so they’re not raising payroll. They have a really good bullpen even with out Downs. Nick Evans is only 22, and skipped Triple A yet still managed a respectable contribution. Evans has potential, and could be a real coup for Toronto. A Toronto team that has publicly acknowledged a disenchantment with the incumbent First Baseman – Lyle Overbay, and also has injury concerns with incumbent Third Baseman – Scott Rolen. Left Field is far from locked up, and Nick Evans is a versatile guy that gives them a bunch of options.
Freel has no place to play in Baltimore, and was largely included in the package as a salary counter-weight. I think he’s definitely expendable, and Baltimore would relish getting the professional Catcher they desire for essentially just 1+ million in additional costs.
Niese to Texas for a young Catcher makes sense on both sides because we need a young Catcher and they want young pitching.
I’ll take Bonds…and Alou…but I’d rather have Manny.
Alou?
he’s better than Tatis/Murphy…
What about signing ollie and garland?? I’m gonna guess and say it will cost around 20 million for the both of them. Maybe 11 for ollie and 9 for garland. I know some people don’t like garland but he’s young, he pitches 200 innings every year,and he’s good for 15 wins a year. I know he wasn’t that great this year but I like the idea of another 200 inning guy in the rotation. We all know what you get with ollie.
Quality starts last season:
Lowe — 20
Wolf — 18
Garland — 18
Sheets — 18
Ollie — 17
If I can get two out of Sheets-Wolf-Garland for not much more than what Lowe is asking for, I’d do it in a second.
I don’t see Lowe as that much of an upgrade over the rest of the others, especially given his age.
To me quality starts are SOO overrated.. look at ollie’s ERA and judge for yourself how much that stat needs to be overlooked.. 6 innings 3 runs?? back in the days used to be 7 innings and 2 runs!! wow.. how times change
I disagree. The number of quality starts is one of the best indicators of a true quality starter — one that gives not just quality, but quantity as well.
I refer you to this excellent entry in Wikepedia which effectively debunks the criticisms of quality starts:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quality_starts
You will rarely find a good pitcher who doesn’t have a high number of quality starts and vice versa.
Also, I’m not sure what point you’re making about Ollie. His number of quality of starts seems about right for the way he pitched lasts season — and for the way he always pitches.
I agree to a certain point, is just that if u see a guy like ollie u see he was so inconsistant that his quality starts are irrelevant
I still disagree. He’s got 17 quality starts which is the lowest number in that group. I don’t see how that is overvaluing him.
Regardless of his inconsistencies, he still pitched brilliantly at times. That’s Ollie, a true Jekyll and Hyde if I ever saw one.
And that’s exactly why the mets will not sign him back.. they’ve had enuff of that “which ollie will show up today” mentality.. a true headcase if u ask me.. but when he’s on, he’s got dominating stuff.. then he blows up in a inning like no one can
Not sure I follow Alex. Pitchers, like any other athlete, have good days and bad days. A QS measures how many good days that pitcher had (6 innings and <3 runs is a minimum). Ollie had 17 “good games” last year. Not better than an innings eater like Garland or an average lefty like Wolf. When comparing those pitchers, I’d take Wolf or Garland, especially with the money it’ll cost.
Alex, I agree with your last comment. Ollie should be low on their list because of his wild inconsistency. Money aside, here is how I rank the remaining starters in terms of desirability:
1. Lowe
2. Sheets
3. Garland
4. Ollie/Wolf
However, the gulf in talent and production between all of them isn’t that wide. And when you factor in the money they are each asking for, injury histories, and their respective ages, it’s almost like a wash among all of them.
There is little chance that the Mets will pay for Lowe + one of the others on that list. But any of the other two would be better than having Lowe alone, IMO.
well, here;s what i mean case, let’s say your #2 pitcher has a 4.50 ERA during the whole year?
would you consider that a good year? i’d say nmo.. but stat wise he did, becoz 6 inning with 3 runs allow every start will give you a 4.50 ERA.
based on that i stated QS being a bad method for pitcher to be looked at..
But here’s the point, Alex …. a pitcher with a high number of quality starts (Santana territory) is rarely, if ever, going to have a high ERA. It just doesn’t happen.
17 is not a particularly high number of quality starts. It’s good. But it’s not considered ace-like. I think you think 17 is awarding too many to Ollie, but I don’t see it that way. Trachsel got into that territory a few times. 17 is considered overall average..
I think the issue with Ollie is that when he’s good, he’s great, and when he’s bad, he’s terrible. Let’s say a pitcher goes 7 innings 2 runs, then 8 innings 1 run and then 4 innings 6 runs. That’s 9 runs over 19 innings for a 4.60 ERA (give or take). But is that one blow up indicative of how good a pitcher is? If a pitcher pitches to a 1.2 ERA 66% of the time and a 7 ERA the rest of the time, do you want him? I think I would…
Yeah, but if you would tell me that the #2 pitcher gave the team 20+ QS, that means that the other team scored less than 3 runs in 20+ games. The Mets, and any good offense should be able to score more than 3 runs per game. So in theory, 2/3 of the time, that pitcher gave his team a good enough shot to win a game.
Wow, talk about an ace … Johan had 28 quality starts last season … and I believe the bullpen cost him a few more.
Alex, that’s what I mean by saying # of quality of starts is a good indicator of value. 28 is definitely ace-like. 17 is not.
Anything around 22-23 or more quality starts a year is getting into ace territory.
CASE:
and that’s exactly why i’m saying that a pitcher’s qaulity starts are over rated.. with that being said a quality start shouldn’t be enuff for a pitcher to settle.. even if a pitcher has 28 “quality starts doesn’t guarantee that pitcher to win 15 games.. i could also mean he can lose 15! it all goes to how the offense pans u out..
alex, seriously, wins-losses should not be used to rate a pitcher. How can you do that:? We all know Johan had a Cy Young caliber season but his win totals were low because the bullpen blew so many of his games.
Quality starts is actually a much better indicator of a quality pitcher than number of wins.
Alex, not sure where ur going here. I think all VCarver was saying is that comparing those pitchers QS should be a good indicator of how good of a pitcher they are. Other factors come into play like total innings pitched, ERA and WHIP. But if you say at a minimum a pitcher should be able to go 6 innings while giving up less than 3 runs, then you can use that to determine who did that more times throughout the year. The more QS the better pitcher they are. If you look at QS from last year, you’ll see that most of the pitchers that have 20+ QS are the ones that are considered to be good pitchers. Whether the bullpen blows the lead or the team doesn’t score enough, is something out of the pitchers control, which is why Wins are a bad indicator of how good a pitcher is.
Agree, but that also shows nothing to me, go and check traschel in ‘06 when he had like 10 quality starts and won 15 games becoz he had the highest run supprot in the majors! that shouldn’t mean anything.. if you have 25 QS they can all be if 6 innings and 3 runs only.. that can give u a 4.50 ERA, that leaves u with the rest.. which can ballon your ERA to 5.00
But c case and Vcarver don’t get me wrong, i agree with ur points, is just i’m stating the fact that quality starts are overrated from my point of view.. ollie had the same as sheets, and to me, he’s not even near the pitcher sheets is..
Alex, again back to my argument of a pitcher pitching well for 2 games and pitching horribly in the 3rd. Sheets only gave up 68 ER, Ollie gave up 91. All that should tell you is that while they both pitched 17 QS, Ollie had a tendency to blow up a lot more. This is basically saying that in his non QS starts he gave up A LOT of runs, not just 4 or 5…
I guess your issue with QS is that it does not have enough of a division – it only does QS vs. non-QS, but does not quantify games where a pitcher gave up 8 runs vs. 4 runs. Would it make you happier if there were more categories like Great Start, Quality Start, Ok Start, Crappy Start?
yeah, zero9 that’s why sheets is a way better pitcher than ollie is and will be..
zero09, nice job getting to the issue.
I’m not sure if a no-trade clause was the only hurdle the Braves wouldn’t jump to trade for Peavy. I would be willing to bet that they were also uneasy about the talent they were going to have to give up.
Let the games begin…
Sign Wolf or Garland now. That protects us and puts a lot of pressure on Lowe.
i think the mets will fix the #2 starting pitching spot before they ad-dress the #5..
I dont think that would put alot of pressure on lowe if we make a #5 starter signing. I think if we start putting out rumors about sheets, that will make lowe sweat at least a little bit. While sheets doesnt have the health that lowe has, sheets makes up for it in talent. We are the only team i think that can drop 16 mill for a 35(?) yr old pitcher…the braves were about to drop money on burnett but burnett is way younger than lowe. I see no other team in our way with lowe. Make rumors about sheets and mets…lets see how quick lowe changes his tune.
i think that the mets will mix and match with their #2 pitcher.. i see them doing lowe/wolff or sheets/garland.. that’s why they are adresing their #2 spot first before they settle for 5..
yea i mean i think we have wayy more options for #5 than we do for a #2 pitcher. The only pitchers that qualify imo as a #2 pitcher left are lowe and sheets….
Why not make an offer to Sheets? Not a huge offer, say 2/18 with incentives. If he takes it, we get a great pitcher at a good price and can still afford to pursue Lowe (who will have added pressure to close the deal). If he doesn’t take it, we’re right back where we are now. Where’s the downside?
Considering the fact that we haven’t heard any rumors from anywhere else about offers to Lowe, I say the Mets leave the offer on the table, be ready to counter if needed, and move on to their next target. It doesn’t look like anyone’s going to top them – so why continue to wait? Let’s sign the next guy, and that WILL put some pressure on Lowe to make a decision.
well i didnt mention it because i as-sume omars already doing that. Like i said its between lowe and sheets for #2 and everybody else lol for #5.
If it is true that Lowe would prefer the East Coast then that might knock the Angels and Brewers down a peg (although we know with CC and Tex that money talks).
I don’t know about the Phillies, they’re going to have to set aside a hefty amount to Howard and Hamels if they want to retain those two past their arb years. The perception among their fans is that they don’t spend nearly as much as their market size suggets.
I’m sure the $16MM for 5 yrs is a great deal of posturing by Boras, but we’ve seen guys that we thought were a lock to sign with the Mets get whisked away from before.
What market size? Philly only has 1.5 million people…
For one thing they’re the only game in town as far as the city goes, unlike NY, and they capture basically all of SE Penn, a fair amount of South NJ, even down into Delaware.
That area alone captures at least the same population as the city proper, possibly pushing it closer to 4MM.
Philly is not a small market city by any stretch. It’s obviously not as big as NY, but it’s not that far off from say Chicago when you factor in the suburbs and surrounding area.
That’s fair to say, but there’s also football, basketball, nascar, and hockey. Considering the fact that the team has been a non contender before 2007, it will probably take a few more years to build a fan base of big market quality.
Just thought I’d share this idiots post on MLTR.COM
“Why would the Mets’ first choice if they don’t get Lowe be Wolf?
Perez is a much better pitcher than Wolf. Oh, he’s younger and in his prime as well. There is no reason the Mets should shun Perez to get Wolf.”
Because as bad as Metsblog is in general, Regis is the most idiotic of the bunch. Those guys are just a joke. I don’t think they know about win shares or OPS or babip or any of that. But boy oh boy can they analyze with the best of’em basing their opinions on batting average, wins, and grittiness.
Posted by: nrmax88 | January 05, 2009 at 02:56 AM
What a jagoff…
Wow johan!! relax.. everyone is entitled to have an opinion, while i agree with you with most points i think the mets have had enough of ollie, specially now with his asking price.. he’s wild and very inconsistant.. he’s better, but wolff gives a different look to those teams, yes ollie beats the phillies, braves and yankees, but he loses to the pirates, giants, padres, nats.. see the trend
Agreed with u 242 ,we have enough of ollie !
Lol, nice name.. WILLIE RANDOLPH
what’s MLTR?
MLB trade rumors
MAJOR LEAGUE TRADE RUMORS
ill take Lowe and Wolf, but if Lowe comes cheap enough, the mets would be dumb to choose “wolf over ollie” if it requires a 3 year deal only
Now if Lowe ends up costing $60 mil for 4 years then I would probably go after Wolf for one or 2 years at 8-10 mil
this lowe thing is reminiscent of the zito flury. i say save money by spending on garland or wolfie…and use the surplus funds for manny.
i’ll sign Lowe 3 yr 43.5 mil.(14.5 per) and go with sheets 1 yr 10 mil.(guaranteed) with performance bonuses(up to 15 mil.) and a vesting option !
Willie, lol, no way sheets sign a 1 year deal..
Well, if that is all he gets, he will! Or if any multi year deals are say 2 years at a low rate.
He might decide to take the one year deal, hoping to have a big year and cash in next year. It has been done before (look at Lohse)
i agree.. great point.. but then again, wasn’t last year his walk out year and he got hurt again.. i think is time he might be looking for some guarantee money.. he’s only 29, but he’s always hurt and might wanna consider as-sure his money now..
Why no nobody has asked for him , he will have to prove he’s healthy enough to get paid what he’s worth !
The entire market is waiting for Lowe to sign to settle in. No way Sheets takes a one year deal with his injury history, although unless he blows up completely, he’ll probably get the same money next year as he will this year.
Realistically, it’s unlikely that he’ll be taken off the market on a one year deal. Most likely 2/25 with a vesting option for 15 to bring the total to 40 over 3. It’s not a bad deal…
I like Ollie, but no way should he get what he’s asking for after a 10-7 season-4.22 era, 105 BB’s. It was an ok season, but not worth the money. If Lowe is going for $16 million, I say let him walk and go for Wolf, Garland or Sheets. Too much greed in going on here.
Lowe is a tad overrated, especially when you factor in his home/road splits (any pitcher will look better pitching 1/2 their games in Dodger stadium, and a bunch against the NL west! Except for Ollie that is (the NL west part)).
Still, he is a good fit for the Mets right now (solid, steady mid rotation guy). But at his age, 4 years is nuts. And of course 16+ million is too! But I only really care about the money if it means they have to cheap out to fill other holes.
I like the Sheets idea for a ST contract. He can replace El Duque on the roster, but actually pitch some games! If they can get him for 10mill and get 25 starts, that is still better value than Garland for the same price (and probably Lowe at 15mill for 32!)
I think garland is decidely mediocre. better off with a young guy, or AAAA type, to get similar output at a much lower cost (moot point now, but this is where I though Heilmann fit if he stayed ont he team).
At this point, Stokes could probably produce the same output as Garland.
Lowe + sheets (or even Wolf) on a ST deal would be a great finish to the revamping of the pitching staff.
Of course, the postion players still need work. And that is why I hope they sign the pitchers aquick, so there is still time to work ont hat area!
Don’t ever mention Heilman in this blog again ,im starting to sleep well again ! LOL
You’re only sleeping well because you’re out of the pressure cooker of NY, which you couldn’t handle.
I don’t know who is more crazy… the Mets for thinking Lowe might actually accept a 3 yr 36 mil offer, or Lowe for thinking someone will actually give him 5 yrs 80 mil. Or maybe Matt for thinking that a 4th yr vesting option will get it done with a higher annual salary. I don’t see that sweetening the pot for Lowe that much when he wants 5 yrs guaranteed.
It’s beginning to look less and less likely that Lowe will sign with the Mets… all these other teams creeping into the mix, the large divide between our offer and his demands…
I’d offer him 4 years and 60 mil, see how he reacts, and go from there. But I guess to do that we have to wait until another team makes a bid that tops our previous offer.
Best case, for me, is to sign Lowe and bring back Pedro on an incentive laden deal, and let Niese or Parnell (or another veteran minor leaguer or kid) fill in during Petey’s trip(s) to the DL. I know Mets fans may scoff at the idea of Pedro returning, but in the right circumstances, what’s to lose?
Signing Pedro is the same as saying, “plug Niese into #5 starter spot”. And to that, the answer is NO. Not if this team wants to contend…
“Lowe is a tad overrated, especially when you factor in his home/road splits (any pitcher will look better pitching 1/2 their games in Dodger stadium, and a bunch against the NL west! Except for Ollie that is (the NL west part))”
thank you!!!!! i’ve been saying the same for months.. i rather have sheets!
How funny will it be when we end up with Ollie and Pedro?
Not funny, disasterous.
i’d go with “DEVASTATING” but don’t tell glavine that!
lolll
Isn’t that the plan, though? Get one “Good” SP (Lowe, Ollie, Wolf, Garland) and then get a reclamation project battle with Niese for the 5th spot (Garcia, Pedro, Redding)
You have to counteract one with the other. If you get 5 inning Ollie then you have to get a 200 innings guy as #5.
If you get Lowe then you can afford to gamble more.
yeah, but u rather have a good #5 a have niese ready to step in anytime someone needs a rest or is out for injury
that #5 being Sheets if he goes to the DL we have Niese !
def agree Alex, just stating what has been put out there, ie. Mets will sign one Good guy and let Niese battle for the 5th spot.
I’d rather have: Santana, LOWE, Pelf, Maine, WOLF, PEDRO, Niese, Figgy, Stokes, Knight, Parnell
I don’t know what makes everyone think that Niese is ready to pitch a full season in the majors. He’s as ready as Pelfrey was in 2006…and there’s no real backup behind him. I think this team needs someone solid to rely on if it wants to contend
if we sign sheets or wolff who usually tend to get hurt we can use niese.. that can give him more experience, but if we see niese for more than 15 starts i think we’d be asking for trouble..
Agreed. He should be a fallback option just like Figgy.
Alex, I agree with you.
One of the benefits of a pitcher who pitches is quality starts is the expectation the team can have (and comfort with, ability to use and schedule of, the bullpen for other pitchers.
If the pitcher is so inconsistent that you do not know who will show up, then the team is at a disadvantage and has to worry about how it uses its bullpen on days prior to his pitching day.
The wild pendulum of Ollies performance detracts from the number of his quality starts.
That’s the expectation as of now, is based on “quality starts” or how long can u last.. go and check how many pitchers had 200 innings last year, and how many of them allowed like 250 hits with like 80 walks and their ERA was like 4.50! i rather have a good pitcher that no matter what happens will kepp u in a game than one that when is out there u pray he pitches 6 innings..
I just think QS should be adjusted for # of time a pitcher fails to quality for a win (i.e. pitches 4.2 or less) or even worse how many time a pitcher fails to pitch 3.0 innings which is tantamount to not even showing up.
Ollie had 5 games where he failed to pitch 4.2 innings.
2 of those fames he failed to pitch 2 innings.
He failed in those instants not because of injury but rather because he got shelled. And in the two worst cases, not only did he get shelled, but he did not provide length, thus burning the bullpen as well.
Quality starts are a very good messure of effectiveness. They get a bad rap. Sure you only have to go 6 and only give up 3. However, in quality starts last year pitchers had an ERA of 1.90ish and averaged 7 innings. Usually a quality start is much more than just the low minimums.
i say if he wants16 million a year, give 2 years 32 million and option for a third year if he pitches 200 innings a year. that way he gets what he wants, no way we should be holding on to this guys after he reaches 40.
Not going to work. All kinds of teams would enter the mix on a 2 year contract.
Lowe is crazy. Yes he is a better pitcher then Carlos Silva, but who saw that ridiculous contract coming last year.
Lowe in reality is worth exactly what the Mets offered him. he’s a 12-13 million dollar a year pitcher. He’s a guy who has a 1.27 WHIP, a 3.6+ERA, about 12-14 wins.
I have been screaming this for Months. He isn’t worth 15+ million a year. I don’t care that he’s the best pitcher left on the market. I will kill Omar for a lot of things, but this one he is handling correctly. No other team is showing interest in him. He want’s to play on the East Coast, and wants to play for a Winning team, that is out of his mouth.
Boston’s rotation is pretty set. The yanks aren’t spending any more, the Mets made their offer and it’s the largest on the table so far. The Phillies have their 5 SP and haven’t shown interest. So increasing the offer to 4 years 48 million or 4 years 52 million might be all that is needed to get it done.
Unless he wants to go pitch for the Nats or the O’s for 16 million a year. Then in my opinion let him.
i agree. Let him chase the money and he will chase himself out of the best opportunity to win a championship. I think we offer the best chance for a win than most team in baseball with putz and rodriguez closing out games…if that is not a selling point for a starting pitcher, i dont know what is.
He has a ring from the sox, doesn’t he? So at this point, being 36 and having Boras for an agent, I am guessing that the max $$s is more important than the perception of getting to the WS again.
Actually, even for a young guy like Ollie, it’s about the last buck not a ring at this point.
lol yea your right stick…forgot about the ring he got with the sox…..
I can’t figure Ollie out. It doesn’t seem like he is motivated by anything. It just seems to me that he treats pitching like a fun video game which he gets to play once every five days.
If im Omar i’ll say to Boras “ok we’re interested in Lowe so go talk to other teams and don’t sign anywhere before coming to me” this way we’ll not outbid ourselves like the Yankees did !
Not to be crazy, but don’t you think both Boras and Omar know this, and don’t you think that if Omar did this, Boras would say, ummmmmmmm phillies offered 4 years 58 mil, better offer 4 at 60. And then he gets his 15 million, when the Phillies never made that offer.
It’s the same crap he has pulled for years, and Omar and the mets have pretty much called his bluff every time. They have lost guys, but they lost them to wastelands. Like the A-Rod deal of years ago. Mets had their 182 million dollar offer, and Boras said we have a 200 million dollar offer from a team out there, mets said ok send him and he did….. Texas.
Remember that the offers are in black and white !
Mets offered 182 for ARod? That’s news to me. I recall Phillips publicly calling him “24-plus-one” and saying the Mets were not interested.
Willie, believe me, boras will ALWAYS go to the yankees and mets before their client accept a final offer.. we are the biggest market in all baseball..
Then why the yankees outbid themselves ?
becoz sabathia didn’t wanna go to the AL.. let alone the most pressure city in the world.. not everybody thrives in NY.. if u don’t believ me go and ask randy johnson..
Lowe 10/15/15 final offer.
I like the final offer part. And then Omar can say, “Derek Lowe, Deal or No Deal?”
is anyone else reporting that the phillies are in the mix besides heyman? he seems to be the sole source of that rumor
Even Heyman is reporting on what Boras said. Boras said that the Phillies and Braves have been contacting him.
Why would he say that? To get the mets to up their offer. Hey your 2 top division rivals are in on the bidding. Better up your offer, don’t want atlanta or philly to get him… He’s trying to Pavano/Burnett Omar and the Mets into bidding against themselves. Omar made his lowball offer, and will easily go up from there, but you don’t have to blow yourself out of the water. If you can get him for 12 or 13 a year. Why should we give him 15, just because he wanted it.
Heyman is on Boras’ payroll
LMAO!!!
Hmmm, wonder why the “Phillies and Braves” would be interested? Go ahead and throw the Yankee’s in there too with the Marlins and Nationals Boras. LOL.
Final offer 3/40. 10/15/15 with an 15 million option and 5 million buyout. 4/55 or 3/45 (including buyout) total.
i see the mets getting him at 3 years 40 to 42 millions.. no more than that though!!!
Wanting a certain contract (5/80) is fine. But, he really has no leverage to get it, since his only options are take the best deal offered, or retire.
Unfortuneately, this dance may drag on for a while (game of chicken?) while each side waits for the other to blink. While that is fine on some level, Omar runs the risk of having his other options (P and otherwise) disappear.
So, IMO the best reaction is to pursue other SPs, to either fill the holes, or get Lowe’s side to push the issue.
Of course boras wants to stall hoping to drag other teams in, but at some point, it becomes obvious that it ain’t happening, or at least not unless he is perceived to be going “cheap”
I hope the 2 sides decide to just get together this week and compromise on a deal.
Even Boras must realize that he needs to get this deal done to get the rest of the clients signed! And at some point, the FAs will start to get antsy and pressure him to get them signed.
Not really that long until Pitchers and Catchers report!
TRS,
I was about to say that myself. Sign Garland to a 3 year 24 million dollar contract, you have 4 quality guys already on your roster, and 5 if/when you sign Lowe.
This will put even more pressure on Boras and Lowe to get a deal done. If the “Other” teams looking for a SP get their guys, then Lowe and Boras will really have no-place to go.
Exactly, Garland gets a bad rap on here. He is not a #2 starter but he is not a #5 either. Yes his BA was high last year but he is consistant in innings and wins double figures. He had more quality starts than Perez and more innings per start. He does not cost a draft pick and can be had MUCH cheaper than other options.
Then Omar can tell Lowe it’s either 3/40 with us or not. We can always sign Wolf or Perez.
Him dragging this out is exactly why we shoud move in on Garland or Wolf. They are in a holding pattern until he signs and have to realize there won’t be much time after he does. Sneek in and get one of those 2 for 8-10 million a year on a 3 year contract. At that price they will be very tradeable later.
You know I don’t really like Garland, but if they can get him at a reasonable price (3/24), then sure, do it. Even wolf on a 2 year deal (2/16 or wahtever). As you note, not a huge investment, and certainly tradeable.
Doesn’t prevent them from getting Lowe, but certainly gives them a cushion to make it less improtant.
So sign Garland, and start courting SHeets. That should get Boras’s attention!
Garland and Wolf won’t sign until Lowe signs. They won’t sign for less until they know what their market value is.
Most of FA’s have gone that way, except for Ibanez.. He didn’t wait and signed for relatively little.
I think that applies in December but I am not sure that applies in Mid January.
panic will start to set in when they start thinking about 1 year mini deals. These aren’t guys that can take a CC or Tex like attitude about teams beating down their doors to throw money at them.
I really think that 1/1 was a big psychological barrier. This is when guys are starting to plan for reporting to camp, etc.
i’m sure boras doesn’t mind holding the market captive until the beginning of ST, but I’m sure plenty of players don’t want to be part of it.
And some of them are repped by other guys, and might be happy to take a “new economy” deal with a team like the mets.
If not, they can say no, and the Mets move on or wait. But they pretty much won’t lose anything by trying!
Hey, if you don’t hit on the pretty girl at the bar, how do you know for sure you will get rejected?
As usual I agree, stickguy. Especially for pitchers, you would think they want to get in as quick as possible and be there for pitchers and catchers. Not to mention, too much can go wrong in a 1 year deal for a pitcher.
Stick, I agree with what you’re saying, but to answer your last question: It’s because you’re ugly.
Life’s that simple. :)
Maybe, but Omar will play this like he did K-Rod. He may not get Lowe, but won’t overpay for him either. Just like he was okay with not getting K-Rod because he knew he could get Fuentes for cheaper.
anyway, Lowe is being portrayed as this franchise savior it seems. yeah, he is a solid veteran mid rotation pitcher (old Mr. reliable?) But he isn’t Seaver or Santana in their prime! or even CC (at least the Mill. version).
He can give some stability to the rotation (as-suming of course a 36 YO guy doesn’t break down) and save some wear/tear on the pen. But he isn’t going to carry the team on his back.
So up the offer a little (something like TRS said), maybe a reasonable 4th year vesting optin (say 180 IPs in year 3), and put it out there as a take it or leave it. And start mvoing on (even as the offer is being presented).
My point is, this is a perfect situation to play hardball, since you are already offering full market + on the guy, and there are other options can replace him.
This isn’t like the Yanks with CC where they were desperate for the guy.
If he goes elsewhere for a ridiculous deal, oh well.
Give Lowe a deadline and move on already. Sheets and Garlard would be just as good.
HAHAH i just went and read what Heyman is reporting:
Heyman named the Phillies, Braves, Red Sox, Brewers, and Angels as possible suitors, with the last three more on the speculative side.
Ok so the only serious teams are the Mets, Phillies and Braves? Too Funny Boras and Heyman!!!
Agreed, this in one you gamble on. You can get value out of the other pitchers. Do like you did with RP and put out about 3 offers one to Lowe, Garland and Wolf.
Not sure of course how this plays out, but somehow, I don’t see Lowe (if the Mets don’t end up signing him) going elsewhere and having some huge, cy young quality season.
Not to say that the guys the Mets get instead might not do worse or get hurt, but I just can’t see Lowe having a big season. More like stay healthy, and pitch OK. Kinda Glavine-esque!
In fact that is a great comparison. Lowe is the righthanded version of Glavine. In fact I could see that 3/4th year being VERY similar.
TRS:
to be honest, i hope he signs else where if that means we can get sheets..
TIDE:
maybe the phillies ok, but atlanta is far off still.. lowe is just not that good!!
If I knew I could get Garland for 8-10 a year then I would be right there with you.
Johan, Sheets, Pelfrey, Maine, Garland, Niese is much better to me than
Johan, Lowe, Pelfrey, Maine, Redding, Niese.
As long as it doesn’t start and end the same way it did for Glavine.
That’s my point. I could easily see that happening.
You don’t have to have a Cy Young quality season to be an enormous boost to a staff.
If your argument is he’s not worth 16 million a year, I’m right with you, but if your argument is that it’s no big deal if he goes to Atlanta, or especially the Phillies, I think you are wrong. It would be a big deal.
It was more about the money (and perception of the guy). Not saying he wouldn’t be good for the Mets, or the Braves or Phils, just that he isn’t going to cause a seismic shift in the balance of power!
I honestly have no idea how he would perfer pitching for the Phils. Better than Kendrick or Eaton most likely! But I don’t evenknow who the heck their 5th starter is going to be now (chan ho?)
5th starter is going to be a trial between Happ/Kendrick /Park in spring training. If either of those guys aren’t up to the task, they will probably bring up Carrasco, who is a top prospect doing a great job in the minors. Happ will probably work out in utility role if Moyer or Myers have issues during the season.
I just don’t see the Phillies getting him and I am still not impressed by the Braves. Getting him for them would just be replacing Smoltz.
I agree. If it really is Mets vs. Phils on Lowe, then this signing can mean the difference between #1 and #2 in the division. He doesn’t have to be an allstar to produce a 2 game swing. And that’s all it takes…
HOWEVER, Phils neither have roster nor salary room for this guy. These are just rumors Boras is floating around. I’d be more scared of the Braves – they made offers to Burnett and Texeira – which means they got cash to spend….and there’s really no one else at the top of the list to spend it on.
To anyone advocating a signing of Sheets: Yes- he is a great pitcher when healthy; however, he does not fit with this rotation. Other than Johan you have no idea what you are getting on a start to start basis, with Pelfrey still developing and Maine coming off season ending shoulder surgery and 2 burn out seasons in a row. While Maine and Pelfrey should both be very good, you must have a #2 who will give you a consistent, dependable start every single time. This is why they cannot depend on Perez, and also why they cannot afford to take a risk on Sheets as a #2. If you want to tell me we’re signing Wolf and Sheets, that is a little easier to stomach. The one thing this team is striding for this year is consistency game in and game out
I think the argument here is either Lowe +scrub (Redding) or two of Sheets/Garland/Perez/Wolf. If Sheets were to get hurt, there would be a major league backup around.
I would much rather have Lowe if cost were not a factor. However, they for certain are. What IF we could get Garland and Wiggy for the same price as Lowe? Which would you want?
Lowe. Wiggy is worth as much as Nick Evans…
To be honest I think the Phillies are just trying to price up Lowe for the Mets so we don’t get him for cheap since he wants to be on an NL team. Atlanta might be more of a threat since they missed out on AJ. Still I think this is just the usual efforts to drive up prices for the other teams in the division and I think he will eventually go to the mets. I ju9st hope we don’t have to garuntee a 4th year to get him because this could end up working out a lot like the glavine deal. We get a solid but past his peak pitcher that is in a high enough contract that we are stuck with him until the end of the contract.
I think the fact that it’s NL East team names being floated around probably means that there’s no real bidders out there. Boras is dangling division rivals around so that he can drive up the price. Is it coincidence that there is no other team pursuing Lowe? I’m starting to think that 3/36 is the only offer he’s going to receive…
Good point. It might just be Boras creating a market. That being said, the Braves and Phils are unlikely to contradict if it forces the Mets to spend more money.
The idea that anybody even mentioned the name Moises Alou on this site. You should be banned. Matt please revoke his login. WTF? I would not take Alou if he paid us $20 mil to play.
I don’t know if anyone noted this already but mlb trade rumors just pointed out that the Phillies have 8 players facing arbitration and it could add an additional 19 million to the payroll this coming season. This is a lot of money for them, which is why any idea that they will be serious suitors for Lowe seems like pure BS.
Absolutely. They’re probably going to be looking to dump some payroll in July. The idea that they can afford to shell out another 15m to Lowe is absurd.
Ollie/Garland. Is that like Olive Garden? I’d much rather Sheets/Wolf if we don’t sign Lowe. I think we can both on 2 year deals for much less per year than $12 mil.
$44 mil for 3 years plus an option based on how many starts he makes over the course of the three years. Thats a fair deal. $16 mil per year is too much for him. I would love for the Mets to sign Sheets as well. My contract offer would be 3 years/30 million with an extra $5 mil bonus for starting 32 games. I think that is fair.
I wouldn’t up the offer at all. Stick with 3/$36. Find someone to outbid us, I’m weary of giving Lowe a 4th year or more money as it will restrict other moves that are needed. Give me Wolf at 8mil per, and Garland at 8mil per. Leaves enough money to get a lefty for the pen, (guardado), plus enough room for some play to try and fix 2B.
If we wish to compete in 2009, we will need Lowe or Sheets.
If we wish to compete in 2009, we therefore must give Lowe or Sheets what they want. We need them more than they need us, ergo, they hold the cards.
When I said if Lowe wants $16M, give him $16.5, what I meant was do what it takes to get him. You can try to lower the cost a bit, but in the end, the Mets will have to be prepared to pay Lowe fair market value + a premium to make sure we get him; and the same goes for Sheets.
Garland, Wolfe, Ollie etc. will simply not do if we wish to have a serious team in 2009. They are insufficient. It will be a huge risk.
It’s not far-fetched to say Maine or Pelfrey can outperform Lowe next season.
Whoever is going to get the team into the 7th inning effectively and consistently is o.k. in my book. The Met bullpen was so overworked the past two years because of the lack of pitchers able to do what I mentioned. And on a side note, if John Maine doesn’t become that type of pitcher, we’re in for a long season.
Pay Lowe 16.5 Mill a year for 3 and a decent 4th yr option and get on with it. He’s what we’re looking for, an ulra dependable number three and the best free agent left. Omar has to do this or he should pack his bags and get a job in a bodega in Corona
if the 3 yr 16.5 per with an option doesent work, throw him a four year 14 per that may be more attractive to him and an extra year for us and only a couple extra mil