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The Red Sox are close to signing free-agent RHP 
John Smoltz to a one-year, $5.5 million deal, reports Nick Cafardo in the Boston Globe.
In other words, it’s essentially the same deal Brad Penny got from Boston, who now have seven starting pitchers on their roster.
Which begs the question, “Do they also need Derek Lowe?” I’m guessing they do not.
According to Cafardo, “The Sox do not anticipate that Smoltz will be ready until later in May.”
In the end, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com explains, “With Smoltz coming off major surgery, the Braves were not inclined to guarantee him significant dollars.”
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John Smoltz wishes he was me.
Smoltz in the bullpen as a set up man would be ideal. Not for 5 mill though
he’s wishing it all the way to the HOF
Can’t have enough SP. Having a guy like Smoltz on dead money come in in June could be a huge plus.
Here is my biggest fear with all of this. The Braves may reenter the SP market. In some ways I would rather them get Lowe than Perez. There is something about Perez going to Atlanta that scares me to death.
I think there is such a difference of opinion on Ollie b/c we’ve all seen the best and worst of him. I’ve seen him cruise through 6 innings only giving up a smattering of hits and no runs. I’ve also seen him not get out of the first. Seen him give up 8 walks but limit the damage and still manage to get the win.
That is the definition of inconsistent…
What really baffles me is I’ve never seen a pitcher do what he does. He’ll be cruising along, going good, in the 4th inning or so and all of a sudden you’ll see him let go with a sidearm pitch that has never been in his repertoire. Used to drive Peterson crazy. And why does he do that? What ?? Does he get bored on the mound?
I’m in the camp though of thinking Ollie will finally turn it around this year and win us at least 15 solid games – should we sign him.
If have flipped on this as much as Obama on the economy. I have no idea. If he goes to the AL I don’t mind. But going to another team in the division would bother me tremendously. I am very surprised the Braves and Dodgers are not all over him.
Thanks for the political analogy. It was definitely necessary. Definitely. Necessary.
Posted this on the other thread.
While I love the stat quality start as it turns out it is much more effective than people think what QS don’t show is how many RSS they had (new stat invented by me, Really Shiiitty Start. Less than 5 innings or less and 4 runs or more). Ollie had 6 of those starts. In comparison
The results below may surprise you
Lowe 4
Garland 6
Wolf 7
Redding 7
Sheets 0
Now lets break down a little further into NVSS. (Needs Viagra Shiiity Start, difined by 4 innings or less multiple runs)
Sheets 1
Lowe 1
Wolf 7, yes 7. I have now changed my mind to wanting no part of Wolf.
Redding 4
Perez 4
Love the RSS. Definitely gives the QS a different perspective.
Awesome analysis trs. But don’t forget that Ollie had terrible start and was dominant in stretch of 10 starts or so. So your RSS numbers probably picked up lots of his bad starts in the beginning.
Funny.
what makes you think he’s going to all of a sudden just turn it around…
If you notice, I said I ‘think’. I have no proof, nothing to go on. Just a gut feeling.
Wake me up when something interesting happens..
Smoltz would never play for the Mets. You dont think Glavine told him how unhappy he was here.
The Red Sox already have a set rotation. Smoltz is insurance come playoff time and so it makes perfect sense for the Sox.
rehab projects like Smotz, Penny are nice to have as insurance.
But guaranteeing that much money is crazy.
These kinds of guys used to get ST invites, or maybe 1 mill + incentives.
But, if they got the money, it is worth the flyer.
yeah, but it’s Smoltz not Benson.
for real. if Smoltz pitches, believe he’s going to be good
oh, and for a few bucks more, I would rather take a shot with Sheets.
Red Sox are close to signing Baldelli too.
I know a lot of you wanted him on the Mets…
I wanted him on the mets. Great 4th/5th outfielder. Can play all three spots. Can Hit for average and power. Would come at a very marginal cost. Supposedly with the new treatment he has, his disease is very controllable and even curable. Meaning he can play almost every day, if not every other day.
Right handed. Can play all 3 outfield positions. Solid defensively. Can hit. Can run. You can then have Tatis spell Delgado and Wright and the Outfield more.
Just my humble opinion though.
Ollie gave up damn near 30 HR pitching in a pitchers ballpark…
Atlanta historically goes for groundball pitchers ( which is smart ) playing in that small ballpark…
Ollie would give up 45 HR’s easily if he played for Atlanta…
I wouldnt be surprised if the Dodgers scooped him up..they have a pitchers ballpark..they have the extra money…low key relax crowd ( although it seems like Ollie responds better to pressure than non pressure )
I would love for the mets to sign Ollie to a 4 year deal for 48 mil and Lowe to a 3 year 45 mil deal with a 1 year option
having a rotation with Johan..Lowe..Pelf…Perez…Maine…would make our chances to succeed increase so much more
years 48 millions to ollie?? uh… why?
well, i voted no, but knowing how the mets gave retitrement contracts to el duque and alou i wouldn’t have been surprised if they did..
Not familiar with Smoltz’s surgery, but can teams just give away $5mm? That’s ridiculous.
the mets gave el duque 8 and alou 8 millions so.. yeah.. teams can do that..
Posted this on the other thread.
While I love the stat quality start as it turns out it is much more effective than people think what QS don’t show is how many RSS they had (new stat invented by me, Really Shiiitty Start. Less than 5 innings or less and 4 runs or more). Ollie had 6 of those starts. In comparison
The results below may surprise you
Lowe 4
Garland 6
Wolf 7
Redding 7
Sheets 0
Now lets break down a little further into NVSS. (Needs Viagra Shiiity Start, difined by 4 innings or less multiple runs)
Sheets 1
Lowe 1
Wolf 7, yes 7. I have now changed my mind to wanting no part of Wolf.
Redding 4
Perez 4
TRS:
Huh?
Well Alex, these two types of starts RSS and NVSS are very bad for an entire team. Not only do you lose that game but you really hinder your chances of winning the next game. You over work the pen in the long run and even put more pressure on the next day’s starter to go longer than normal.
ohh.. got you.. well, we’ve been doing that for the past 2 years. ollie and mayne made sure of that..
And Pedro and the rest of our junk #5 starters.
yeah.. ugh.. and honestly it still amazed me that with all that we were still in position to win the division or make the playoffs.. and to think some people here fear the phillies..
I like your new stats. I take a couple of things out from them:
- QS is really an average of sorts. it doesn’t take into account inconsistancy. That is, there is a big difference between just missing a QS, and imploding and blowing up a bullpen
- Tim Redding pitched just about as well as Ollie overall last year, and could end up being a bargain at 2.5 million to be the 5th starter.
- Sheets had a really good year, and a 1 year deal (unless there is real medicla evidence that his current condition makes it highly unlikely he can pitch) is a real good idea.
- stats can be manipulated to make any player look better or worse than they really are.
I think if you took 1 and subtracted from the other you might get a really good tool.
QUALITY STARTS MINUS REALLY SHIITTY STARTS = THE REAL STARTS
Exactly.
I’m curious if Andy Pettitte would be any better than Wolf in this analysis…
Thanks for doing the research on this. Its quite interesting. I think it would be more complete if you added a catagory above QS. Such as a starter going 7 quality IP. That would help balance out the NVSS and might make Sheets look a little better.
I really could only afford to Give Smoltz a couple hundred bucks right now, so I had to vote no.
If we could find out if Sheets was healthy I would really love to get him and Garland. Garland using my NVSS only had 2 of those starts and Sheets had 1. That’s perfect for our rotation.
Would also be curious to see when Redding had his bad starts. If they came toward the end of the year when he had the injured foot (since fixed), it bodes well for him having a solid year (as-suming he can replicate his 1st half performance!)
two of those terrible starts were indeed his last two of the season, but he had two in July as well.
I’m tired of reading about Boras. Just finish the deal for Lowe, sign Redding, and try to lock up a decent MI BU (grudzy) and if possible another lefty set up guy (still like Guardado). Then get ready for ST.
Oh, and if they do get those 2 SPs, expect Omar to swing a trade to make some changes to the offense.
My guess (gut feeling? I have no sources!) is that Omar did not find any of the FA options to be a good fit (talent and/or cost), so he decided to shore up the pitching instead on the open market.
then, he will troll the trade avenues (really haven’t been too many trades made, right?) to try and upgrade LF, 2B or C. I still would love to see Delgado moved, but not holding out hope.
Public comments not withstanding, I’m sure Omar knows that the line up could use some improvements.
Beating the dead horse here, but Tex would have been an excellent fit, and (could still happen!) Murphy to 2B would take care of a lot of issues too.
stick, thanks for opening up a fresh wound *cries*
sorry case. I know you built your life around it.
Wiggington would still be a decent consolation prize as a RH bat with some pop. At least it is better than nothing!
Well the poll here says don’t give Smoltz 5.5 mil to pitch from June,but it was Ok to Give Roger Clemens 28 Million to pitch a real stinker of a season for the Yankees 2 years ago??
Smoltz could be a bargain at that price.The Red Sox are playing with what is now a little bit of money to see if they can capture some Lightning with Smoltz and Penny. It may work it may not
Well, that Clemens deal was a bad idea too.
But, no one really knows if Smotz will pitch at all. At least Clemens was healthy, and came back late becasue he was letting the roids clear through his system (er, I mean waiting to see which team was a contender..)
I’d bet 5 mil on Smoltz pitching the second half of the season, and pitching well. What a boon for the playoff stretch. Relatively low risk / high reward, imo.
well any one year deal is limited in its badness because its over just as soon as it started.
I would guess the Yanks felt they would make back a good share of that 28 mil in jersey sales and whatnot. I dont see how, but maybe thats thier reasoning.
In almost all cases spending the last of your budget on a low risk (one year) high reward situation is a great idea.
What worries me now is the Braves swooping in on Lowe…they have spent NO money this year and they need pitching.
I don’t see them getting Lowe. I am much more worried with them getting Perez.
Agreed.
They did take on the Vasquez contract. They have 6 starting pitchers already. Jurjings, Vasquez, Reyes, Morton, Campillo, and Tim Hudson.
Yes they too would love a front line starter, but they as many teams see Lowe isn’t the guy on the top of the rotation you really want.
The only thing I dont like about Ollie is that he is a “thrower” and not a “pitcher”. He kind of just rares back, lets it fly, and trys to hit the mitt. That kind of can explain his inconsistancies. some days he has good stuff some days he doesnt, and some days he has no clue where its going. Stretches when he has his A stuff are the times that he can carry a club. When he doesnt, he gets lots of baserunners and is a homer or 2 away from a bad outing and an early exit. Which is why if you have him you need a long guy in the pen
That being said, I still like him (as long as you have a decent long man in the pen – redding?).
I totally agree about him being a “thrower.” It’s hysterical sometimes when he invents his own pitching style. The occasional sidearm, etc.
Does anybody remember that sweet 55 mph toss he threw last year (for a ball, of course)? Warthen grimaced and Manuel just shook his head.
Off-topic, interesting post by someone on the Daily News website:
“For what it’s worth, Billy Wagner is set to begin a throwing program. According to his Doctor, Wags is ahead of schedule and has been on an aggressive three day a week workout agenda. Wags is targeting August 1 as his return date to the pen. Ed Coleman just interviewed Wags at his home in VA.”
Very interesting. Maybe that’s why the Mets don’t feel they HAVE to get a LOOGY.
seems like we hear something like this after every surgery these days and they all end up not coming back on schedule. im not even going to think about billy wagner until i see him pitch a full big league inning again. then i’ll decide if hes recovered or not.
my gut tells me that if he comes back in august hell be high 80’s at best. and since he’s not a good enough “pitcher”, theres no way he can live in the high 80’s and be effective.
given that Wagner used to be a starter and has shown the ability to develop new pitches in his later years I see no reason not to think he can be an effective reliever for a couple months. Plus, he has like six months of rehab time to work on stuff out of boredom and then facing minor leaguers for 6-8 weeks.
I look forward to the chance he might give them one of the most dominant set up groups for a postseason.
Interesting….
Given the fact that you can’t trade a guy on the DL, you can’t keep a guy on the DL who is rehabbed, he’s still on the Mets payroll/staff, and our history of injuries last year – it might be a good thing if he’s ready by 1 Aug b/c we just might need him….
If Wagner is healthy enough to pitch he would be a huge addtion for the pen.
no doubt. I bet he’s motivated like a mofo to come pitch with our other two closers. That’s a ridiculous pen.
could be an interesting late season (trade deadline) addition. And hey, already paid for!
Wagner should rush back, since he quite possibly is done for a career anyway, so not much to lose.
Or, if he does want a contract next year, proving he can still be effective in real games will make it much easier for teams to sign him to close.
s-suming he could be close to what he was, not bad for a spare 7th inning guy or Loogy.
I think the only reason Wagner is coming back and not retiring is he really wants to reach that elite status of 500 saves. Kind of hard to do if you’re not the closer. I think he’s only got 15 more to reach that milestone?
True, but would he not want to prove he is healthy enough to be a closer by coming back this season and pitching well for the Mets?
Wow, I know it’s a longshot but that would be amazing. You’d almost hope starters wouldn’t go past 6 innings.
Sign Lowe and Redding and keep an eye on Sheets.
That should cost around 16 million. Then go out and sign Wiggy for LF.
Sounds good. If omar can accomplish that by ST, it will be a successful off season.
Last man in the pen can be sorted out in ST, although it would be nice to have a good back up MI on hand already.
And if he did sign those guys, he could spend some time trolling through the trade market, looking to otherwise upgrade the offense (wiggy would only leave 2B and C needing work).
WIggy would solve 2B moreso, imo.
I mean, if they all perform up to expectations how do you not play Wiggy at 2B and Murphy in LF with Castillo on the bench?
I’d think they need to move Castillo first, or just eat the money.
Now that most of the decent options for the bench 2B/SS spot have been signed by others, they would be wise to consider Wiggington for 2B/LF though.
At this point I think the most wise thing to do would be sign Wiggy and start him in LF. Then let Castillo try and improve his value while Murphy works on 2B in the minors to start the season.
interesting. I wouldnt mind Murphy or Evans spending much of 2009 in AAA.
that makes Marlon Anderson the primary lefty bat on the bench though.
The Mets can’t do a Smoltz type move like this. This is the luxury that a team that is well under budget can afford to do. If he helps them it’ll be a huge plus either as a starter or as a set up man. If he is shot then they move on just like they did with Bartolo Colon.
The Sox manage to trade thier bad contracts (Crisp) don’t overpay aging veterans (Schilling, Varitek) and develop thier own drafted players while winning (too many to list). All things the Mets should consider going more of..
going = doing
But on the other hand, that luxury is consolation prize for missing out on the guy they really wanted.
Of course, we have neither! Still, we have it much better than most teams.
hmm, Burnett and Texiera would have been luxuries for them too. In that they have a full roster without them, but would still be significant upgrades.
You say it like the mets arent trying to develop their own players.
Appearance being what they are…
Signing multiple Type A free agents every couple years isn’t really trying to develop players. Refusing to go over slot to draft the best player available isn’t trying to develop players. Demoting players to Brooklyn to help the Cyclones win isn’t trying to develop players.
Obviously they want to develop players, but when it comes down to it other things are always more important.
the real, true that the major factor here is that the Red Sox are ahead of the Mets on thier offseason plan timeline. I think players like Baldelli and Hairston Jr arent about the order of things. The Mets just weren’t looking at enough needs at once.
Well the reason the Redsox are ahead is because they missed out on their top targets. If Lowe signed already then the Mets might be signing more of these type moves.
am I alone in thinking the Mets should be able to sign these secondary players irregardless of who else they may sign?
If Lowe ends up getting 16mil/yr from the Mets will they just not sign a 5th starter and backup middle IF because they shot the whole budget? I doubt it.
While true, once the Mets have signed their true targets they are able to stretch to sign a few others like Smoltz, usually. It’s just this offseason is taking much longer and may not leave time to do that.
Example if the Mets sign Lowe and Redding but then in ST Garcia is still around for 3 million then they may give him an invite. Sosa and Sele would be good examples of this.
Quick question…
If Smoltz is worth 5.5 mil for 2/3 of a season, what will Pedro be worth? I’m surprised Boston didn’t consider signing him.
Smoltz can and will pitch out of the pen if need be. Pedro can’t and wont.
Also, Smoltz was good when healthy last year. Pedro was not.
After the way they booted him out of town I doubt Pedro would ever consider going back.
Smoltz is reported to be getting 5.5 plus 5 more in incentives. If nothing else he gives them one of the best 7th inning relievers in history.
Oddly, I was never aware he left on bad terms. I remember hearing rumors of him and Schilling having a contentious relationship. Nonetheless, I always thought he just went after the money.
Someone on the board made a comment about capturing lightning in a bottle with the signings of Penny and Smoltz. Does anyone here believe Pedro can rebound? Though he had a crappy year, he had an effective August and did K 9 batters in his final game (also gave up 5 runs)…the K’s however points to him still having something in the tank. The bottom line I guess is…are Redding + Wolf (Met fall backs) that much better than Pedro?
lowe to visit braves today says boston globe
Good, maybe that will speed things up a little either way. I still don’t think the Braves will give more than 12 a year. Maybe they go the 4th year?
As I have thought about it, I would rather have Perez AND Garland IF possible. Maybe the Braves signing Lowe would encourage the Mets to do this.
Then at that point Niese can be trade bait IF Maine proves he is healthy in ST.
I’m not sold on Garland, but if a better #5 comes from dropping from Lowe to Perez it should still be alright.
Garland had more QS and less NVSS than Perez.
If the Braves are desperate enought to commit more to Lowe we could miss out on him. I think we’ll still get him though, if we don’t it’ll be because the Braves overpaid.
Like I said Lowe to the Braves does not scare me. Lowe is very beatable and the Braves would still have too many holes.
Lowe has an ERA over 8.00 against the Mets. Perez, however, you know would completely shut us down.
the real and you based that on what?? if u haven’t notice do you see how he pitches against the pirates???? the team he’s supposed to show how “good” he can be.. please..
Exactly, when motivated Ollie usually pitches great. You know he would be focussed against us and then next start lay down for the Nats.
Please!!!
does he seem motivated against the pirates???
true he can shut us down but he can also unrattled in the second inning..we don’t know for sure.. is two things, is either we want him, or we don’t.. i wouldn’t mind having him as our 4th starter or maybe 5th, but to fear him like he’s randy johnson? come on man..
We also need to know that Ollie was dominant for stretch of 10 games or so last year AFTER Peterson got fired. So, that tells us that Ollie’s performance depends on pitching coaches as well.
I agree. Lowe to the Phillies would be bad because they’re already such a good team. But Lowe to the Braves just means the Braves are better than the Nats.
Ollie always shuts down the Braves, Philthies, Skankees, he’d shut us down…he just struggles against junk (as mentioned…the Pirates).
Who would better serve for the Mets? Lowe or Perez? I’d say Lowe will have more impact on the Mets than Perez.
Perez going Bravos could be a problem for the Mets, but it can’t determine who the Mets sign. If Lowe has greater impact on the team, than Lowe is our man.
As all of you have said above, Bravos have lots of holes. So even if Ollie has good games against the Mets, it will have minimal effect on the standings or going to playoffs
I am not saying I like Perez better. I am saying that I would be more concerned if the Braves signed Perez than Lowe. Big difference.
We’re in on Cordero. That would be a nice addition.
ww(w.newsday.com/spor)ts/basebal(l/mets/ny-spmets08jan08,0,4698177).story?track=rss
(Remove parentheses).
i’m not too thrill wit him, he’s coming off injury.. but if he goes back to 07 form then i’ll be happy.. i think he’s another expo/nationals convention for minaya like usual..
Agreed. He’ll probably get performance based contract or even a minor league deal. If he can get back to where he was before, it’ll be awesome, but if not, he’s not worth signing.
How is he not “worth” signing? It’s not like he is going to get any significant money. Kind of like Wise last year.
Alex, it’s not like at this point we would even be counting on him. It’s a great no risk move. He’s not going to cost much and if not healthy then you move on and if healthy then you actually have a BP surplus in Cordero, Sanchez, and Stokes.
But honestly i think he;ll be a poor man’s sanchez.. i think out of everybody in the bullpen sanchez will do very good.. he’s healthy now and in shape.. i think he’ll have a bounce back year.. if we need another pitcher why not get eddie guardado? another lefty is needed in the pen..
I like the idea of Guardado, but I think he’ll be much more expensive than Cordero. Two very different signings.
I agree signing Cordero isn’t like you’re signing the Cordero of 07 but for a performance laden minimum deal you’d be crazy not to make the move.
If Smoltz pitches 10 games at his 2007 level this year – 5 in September, 5 in October – he’s worth that contract. He was one of the top starters in the NL, even at 40, in 2007, and when healthy there is no starter I’d rather have going for me in a big game. What you’re gambling on is whether or not he returns from surgery with full arm strength. He’s a good fit for Boston, who doesn’t need 150+ innings from him to get their money’s worth.
Someone on the board made a comment about capturing lightning in a bottle with the signings of Penny and Smoltz. Does anyone here believe Pedro can rebound? Though he had a crappy year, he had an effective August and did K 9 batters in his final game (also gave up 5 runs)…the K’s however points to him still having something in the tank. The bottom line I guess is…are Garland, Redding + Wolf (Met fall backs) that much better than Pedro?
That’s a valid question. I just don’t think that Pedro will be very effective next year. I would prefer Wolf to all of them, then Garland, then Redding. I would take Redding over Garland when factoring in price.
I just read the above about Wolf. Wow, don’t know if I want a part of the guy. Very good work “therealsince86.” Two thumbs up.
Sign Smoltz and Lowe. Then when Smoltz is ready, send Niese down to AAA.
But we can only do that in MVP Baseball now,
I think that Smoltz will be a good fit in Boston once he is able to pitch. The Sox are gonna need seven pitchers to compete with Sabathia and Burnett.