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During tonight’s Hot Stove show on the MLB Network, SI.com’s Jon Heyman said the Mets offered free-agent LHP Oliver Perez a three-year deal, ‘worth close to $30 million.’
Heyman says the Mets are discouraged by negotiations with Lowe, who is also being pursued by the Braves, ‘any maybe the Phillies, and maybe the Brewers.’
According to Heyman, Omar Minaya prefers Perez, but the rest of the front office prefers Lowe.
Earlier in the off-season, Heyman told WFAN that Perez had been seeking a five-year, $80 million deal.
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Sounds lie Omar has lost his clout. He should quit if he can”t make personnel decisions.
Sounds like Omar is calling Boras’s bluff on Lowe and playing his cards that way. Can’t blame him, and actually give him credit for having the balls to even try. Ofcourse after last year’s Santana miracle grab, Omar deserves a long leash to play his game. From 80 mil down to 30….NICE…In Omar we trust…
i dont think those dollars are right on ollie’s original asking price. lowe wanted 5 yr 80 mil,ollie wanted 5 yr 70 mil.
the max id go for each is:
lowe-3 yr 42mil
ollie-4 yr 50mil
sounds like you have no idea what you’re talking about
lol
Actually seems like a sound strategy to me. They probably want Lowe, but know they need Ollie as a fall back. What better way to keep from hurting Ollie’s feelings than to say that Omar wants him, but the front office wants Lowe. Show a split camp so as to not alienate either pitcher.
how could omar possibly prefer perez? i’m baffled by that one.
Gotta read between the lines, that’s GM speak for “Lowe, we’ll bow out of the bidding and lower your quote.”
I hope Omar is trying to out manouver Boras, but I would not be surprised if he really did favor Oliver. He does favor live arms and tools………but then again Omar was pretty hot after Lowe during the Winter meetings.
Boy, those pro Lowe people in the front office better not be Fred and Jeff. If they really want him then they could resolve this matter rather quickly. Though it is wise for them to try to bring Lowe’s asking price down.
why would Omar show his cards at this point? Everyone knows the Mets can potentially offer the most money, so why would Omar turn over his cards when the hand isn’t even over yet? Some of you amaze me in that you believe every report that comes out, like these things are all true, and come straight from the inner thoughts of Omar himself.
omar cud favor ollie for several reason
(1)younger
(2)pitches well vs phillies
Going into his prime
He’s left handed
cheaper
He know New York
Lets not forget Lowe is not an ace
“Knows New York?”
If we need restaurant recommendations, we’ll buy a Zagat guide. If we need solid innings, and at 18-24 outs at a time, 30 times a year for 10-15 milion… our best bet is Lowe. (If you want to gamble, gamble on Sheets… at least he’s got demonstrable, likely repeatable potential.)
and perez is?
AND because….. nah I wont say it.
But if I was going to say something, it would have involved him being a latino.
Really, does anyone think Boras will accept the offer from the Braves,Phillies and maybe the Brewers and not knock on Omar’s door?
Let the man get his best offer and then come to NY and see if it’s worth it to the front office.
Otherwise it’s Perez. I’m not opposed to seeing The Ollie Hop next season with a strengthened bullpen he’ll do much better record wise.
As currently constructed this team doesn’t need many more pieces to look good.
Really though how often does the team in April mirror the team in Sept?
The point is, Java Joe, Boras can come to Omar and say that he’s getting 75 mil from the Yanks – but who will believe him? Omar can’t go based on what Boras says – Boras is an agent and can easily lie to get more money. It’s a game, and the team with the most foresight wins.
I am not suggesting that the offer is only from Boras’ word. A certified public offer, Boras and the team make it public.
That’s the best way to drive the price up, a competitive pubic auction.
Omar won’t bid against himself.
First, remember that the Mets lose all their bargaining leverage if Lowe signs with the Braves or Cubs. Second, I’ve always marveled at how well lefties did at Shea? Will it be the same at Taxpayer Field?
Why does he lose bargaining power? What other team is going to hand out a 40m contract to Perez?
The Mets really are throwing out offers that are way low and surely to be rejected. I just hope this doesn’t throw Boras into an ego-bruising revolt against the Mets.
It seems to me that most readers on this blog are the type of people who go to buy a car, get a price and say, “ok”. The whole point of negotiations is to get the best possible price for yourself. Omar shouldn’t care what the rest of the players got last year or this year. This is simple – supply and demand. There is absolutely no reason why Omar can’t use the market to his advantage and save the team some money…yes, the same money that you’ll be crying for giving away and not signing a bat if Lowe gets his 4/16.
Think about it people – this is not just a negotiation for Lowe/Perez – it is also a negotiation for an extra bat that Omar will be able to afford if he brings the pitching market back down to earth…
You might want to reread my post. Then try to comprehend it. Then write a reply.
No doubt that negotiation is an art, but that’s the reason the Skanks swooped in and stole Texeira from all his other suitors.
Thanks, somebody got it. This is a game out side the game.
No way Perez accepts this deal from METS. Boras will get Lowe done first…pretty obvious by now that he is going to Atlanta….Then the fun begins….
Im sure Perez will have teams bidding for him…Boras knows the METS will need Perez….Mets are screwed.
“pretty obvious by now that he is going to Atlanta”
Why is that? Because there was an article about it on Friday? I’m going to believe it when I see it. Everyone is too quick to accept all rumors as facts.
And to add to the other guy who quoted your first ridiculous comment,
“Im sure Perez will have teams bidding for him”
Who are these teams and why aren’t they bidding for Lowe?
WE MADE THE FRONT PAGE OF YAHOO…. YAHOOOOO
MOCKING THE PATCH.. YES!!!!!!!!!!
yup its gettin around.
the sad part is is that they care more about a patch than the HOF election.
If the guy who designed the patch only knew how much cr-p the design would get he would have tried a litte bit harder.
What’s worse is the almost 900 replies to the article mocking the Mets, the Mets BP, the Mets chocking, the Mets sux, blah de blah blah.
We are the team everybody loves to hate.
It’s somewhat ironic since the Wilponzis are so image conscience. They bend over backwards to try and make the Mets lovable.
Basically the Mets are a NY team that is very vulnerable and easily mocked. If they try to defecate on the Yankees the Yankees come to town and sweep a four game series whereas the Mets will split the series. It’s tough ridiculing someone that can and will whip your rear end so you jump over and attack his scrawny step brother. :)
OH BOY.
I dont mean to sound like a silly person but didnt this come from nowhere? I mean ,der, the mets like him, I like him, and it was pretty probable that we would sign him but to me its like out of nowhere that heyman reports the mets offered him a deal.
I gotta say I’m starting to think ollie is the right move. lets look at the catagories
Age…………………………. Ollie
Lefty……………………….. Ollie
Higher Upside……….. Ollie
Bigger Downside…… Ollie
Consistency…………… Lowe
And Warthen Made a huge difference with Ollie look at the numbers
Warthen Numbers
July ERA 1.38
August ERA 3.52
Jul-Aug ERA 2.53
Jul-Sept ERA 3.56
Petersons Numbers
April ERA 4.03
May ERA 5.58
June ERA 5.28
Apr-Jun ERA 4.98
Also look at ollies consistency with Warthen
With Warthen
16/20 starts 6+ innings (80%)
With Peterson
6/14 starts 6+ innings (42.6%)
Well done.
Bring Back Ollie 2.0!
Interesting numbers, and I would like to see how Ollie would do with a full season with Dan, but not for 5 years at 16 per….
FOR SURE.
I would also like to see some numbers of his first season under Peterson. Peterson didn’t start in April 2008, and Ollie was a fine pitcher in 2007.
2007 Ollie Perez
April 3.86 ERA
May 2.01 ERA
June 4.06 ERA
July 1.40 ERA* (3 starts)
Aug 5.19 ERA
Sept 4.45 ERA
2007 3.56 ERA ; Total Innings 177.0 ; 29 starts
average innings per start 4
you be the judge
The stats are somewhat compelling but the categories before them are not — it looks like you’re a$$uming each of the categories are of equal weight. Being lefthanded is virtually meaningless (Lowe is very good vs. lefties anyway).
I’m not sure we can attribute Ollie’s improved performance to Warthen. However, Peterson’s overly thoughtful approach probably did not suit Perez well while Warthen seems to prefer his pitchers pitch within their comfort zones. For example, he encourages Ollie and Johan (the power pitchers) to throw the occasional high strike. Ollie shouldn’t think. He should throw. So perhaps you’re on to something.
Boras has the METS by their CItiField Apple.
ofcourse he prefers perez….
How about Omar offers fair and reasonable offers for the stud free agent pitchers still available, ie Lowe and Perez. If Lowe signs with Philly, he really should start looking for a new job. I am tired of waiting for the Mets to make the proper moves. I have never been a proponent of spending Yankee-like money; however this situation is getting out of hand. There is no guarantee John Maine is going to be 100%, Pedro is gone, Ollie might be gone – sign Lowe and then sign Sheets to a 2 year incentive laden deal and GET IT DONE. Omar has been very lucky in the past with waiting things out, however his luck is going to run out with such low-ball offers…
Resigning Perez costs the Mets a 1st round draft pick.
Considering it’s not going to be in the top 20…Perez > #1 draft pick. …
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the whole idea behind losing a draft pick is that it’s compensation to the team who loses a player to free agency. So since the Mets would essentially be resigning a player they had last year, wouldn’t that mean they lose said draft pick to themselves?
They’re not losing a pick as much as they’re failing to acquire one. They lost a pick for the signing of K-Rod.
In any event, two picks are at stake. If Ollie signs elsewhere the Mets would obtain his new team’s highest eligible pick and a sandwich pick.
Why would anyone think that Perez is going to come cheap once Lowe signs then Boras is going to make Perez like the next coming of Johan .I would rather have Lowe he would be able to pitch 7 innings with no brain farts
If the Mets lose out on both guys then I can’t see any buzz with this team after the last 2 , they needed to make some big moves I know K-Rod and Putz were good moves but I tought that was just the start not the end of moves
If there’s no one else bidding, then bid low (no pun intended). I’d prefer Lowe, but I don’t want to commit 4 years to a 35 year old pitcher. Last three times we went longer on an old arm, it didn’t exactly work out (Glavine, Pedro, Wagner). I figure Lowe is good for 2 more years, so giving him a 3 year deal is ok, but not 4 years. Ollie is younger and lefty and still may have upside (and can always be traded more easily). I’d even go with Wolf on a 2 year deal over Ollie.
It’s a new world. The players don’t have as much leverage this year (unless your name is Texeira). Owners are worried about the economy just like the rest of us. If someone wants to go more years on Lowe, God bless them.
Exactly on the economics part. Not sure if I agree with you on the baseball front though. Wolfe over Ollie?? Hmm…
Well, this puts the Mets in a VERY compromising position since Scott Boras represents both pitchers. He knows first hand if or what the Mets offered Perez, as well as Lowe, and will likely play a role in “deciding” which pitcher the Mets sign – possibly based on HIS personal preference. For instance, if Boras feels it would be easier for him to place Lowe based on his multiple offers, and the Mets have virtually no competition for Perez, wouldn’t it benefit BORAS to steer the Mets to Perez, and sign :Lowe elsewhere? I don’t like this arrangement.
Are you normal? An agent acts in the interest of his clients, not his personal interests. If you’re thinking different, you’re plain out wrong. Speak to any attorney or agent. There’s no reason why both pitchers won’t sign for the best available deals no matter where they are…
ddt: not true, if that were the case he would have had teix sign with the red sox, which would have made the yankees bid high for manny
I’ll reserve judgement on how Omar handled things till we actually get a signing. There are so many rumors, to act as if we know which ones are legit and which ones aren’t…I still don’t see how Lowe goes anywhere other than to the Mets. I think there is a lot of posturing on both sides but in the end no one will offer more than the Mets will and they will come to some compromise that’ll help both sides save face.
Yes – exactly. Let Omar work his magic. It worked last year – why not let him do his thing?
Good Idea
seriously, can Perez expect to get more out of the market than this?
If lowe is expecting 15 million, why can’t perez who’s 29, a lefty, and has pitched in New York which many say is the hardest place to pitch.
Because he’s about 75% of what Lowe is. That’s why he’s being offered 75% of the money. Makes perfect sense to me.
You think anybody else trumps this offer? I actually prefer this deal to 60 million Lowe is looking for.
he is only 27
just asking here but who here thinks Henderson goes in as a Met? Btw it mostly relies on the HOF to make that choice but Rickey does have a say.
huh?
Dumb question. He’s going in as an Athletic, isn’t that obvious? And why wouldn’t he?
No chance going in as a Newark Bear?
Rickey Henderson: the San Diego Surf Dawgs’ first plaque in Cooperstown.
Would it be too late for us to have Willie Mays and Warren Spahn go in as Mets too?
don’t forget Jim Rice played at Shea Stadium in the 1986 World Series.
Don’t forget Yogi Berra and Eddie Murray
I was just saying cuz I heard people (other Mets fans) saying he needs to go in as a Met. I personally belive he is going in as an A.
I think this is a good move by Omar. This puts the Pressure squarely on Lowe, the Braves, and Boras. What Omar pretty much did is call Boras’s and Heyman’s bluff. That the Braves are going to ante up and offer 4 years at 12+. If they aren’t over the Mets offer and Perez accepts, then what is Lowe going to get.
I know Boras won’t let Perez accept until Lowe is signed. But this puts all the pressure on Boras/Lowe/Braves.
see my comment at 8:36
forget ollie lowe is what we should go for ollie cant even go7 strong innings lowee is better!!!!!!
I want lowe too, but not for the 15 million is looking for, he is not worth it.
well look at it this way, lowe will be our second starter he is not an ace. but if he wants at least 15 million i will certaintly give it to him because who knows 2007 was out batting the 2008 was our bullpen and maybe 2009 will be starting pitching. lets hope not and we could deff afford lowe easily. i think we have the 3rd highest payroll in the mlb.
Just because they can afford a 15 million dollar contact, doesn’t mean it has to be Lowe. Because they had the 3rd highest payroll, doesn’t mean they have to be 2nd or 1st. DO you realize 6 of the top 10 teams in payroll last season didn’t make the playoffs?
Brandon Webb made 5.5 million last season
Peavey 6.5
Jon Lackey 7 million
aaron Harang 6.8 million
John Smoltz 16 million
Owsolt 14 million
Big Z made 15 million last year, now that i’m checking not 18 his contract is backloaded
I’m sorry these are all guys outside webb and Lackey who renegotiated with their own teams before free agency.
Derek Lowe 15 million? Even on the open market that’s way way way to much.
Exactly,
I’m all for Lowe at 12, 13 million. I have said that all offseason even before the Mets offered it. He isn’t a 14, 15 million per season or higher pitcher. There are Pitchers all over baseball, and not rookies/arbitration players who make less then him. Owsolt, Peavey, both make less then him and are 2-3 times the pitcher. If he makes 15 million a year, he’s 3 million behind Zambrano, who is also pitcher who is 2 times what Lowe is.
That’s why i have said he isn’t worth it. Just like Perez isn’t worth 12+ a season.
yea but scott boras is his agent and he always asks for way to much but i think were going to have to make this deal go through quickly because the braves lost jon smoltz and want someone ele instead of their poor starting rotation already and lowe is their main priority.
John Smoltz wasn’t going to be ready until mid-summer. The Braves weren’t relying on him at all…
That was smoltz’s salary last year. Not this year. I am trying to say why would or better yet should we pay 14-15 million for Lowe.
He is and never will be on the same page as the guys i have listed. And that’s just a handful. Even Carl Pavano’s terrible 4 year contract wasn’t that high, and he was young. His was a 4 year 40 million dollar contract.
I would rather get Ollie for cheaper and save money to get someone like Nady or Wigginton.
you need to trade for Nady. So money has extra money has nothing to do with him.
lowe has said he is more interested in the money per year more than anything else, so if the mets dont want to budge on 3 yrs, they will have to up the anti from 12 mil to 14 mil for 3 yrs to sign him, i agree with you thought, he isnt worth 15
All of this gamesmenship(sp?) makes me really nervous that we will end up losing both pitchers or spending WAY too much out of desperation and causing us to miss out on making any other small, but important moves.
Ollie + Sheets. Get it done already. This is the 1000th article on the Mets and Lowe. I cant stand it
no sheets his always getting injured but i think to many lowe articiles is right
I was on ESPN reading about the Redding deal and he said he wouldn’t mind pitching in the bullpen. i don’t know what it is but i have this feeling, that Pedro will be really good for us in the rotation. why not sign Perez and Pedro and leave Redding in the bullpen and if Pedro gets rocked you just switch it up and put Pedro as the long man. or we can just make a last minute offer to sign Lowe and actually make it something he wouldn’t laugh at. i still like Perez but we need sinker ballers. you never know how Citi Field will play out and we need a consistent pitcher in general. has anyone else notice how cheap the Mets have been lately? do you think they didn’t have enough money to design better patches? maybe wilpons financial problem is effecting the Mets off season after all.
Whoa dude! For a person who’s name is “choke no more” you’re pretty panicked. Chill.
No teams are taking into account how the economy will effect people going to the ballpark. Not one single team in baseball has added salaray to their previous one, including the yankees. But everyone is Yelling and screaming that the Mets should. Every other team has either Cut Payroll, or had it come off the books and haven’t added it all back like the yanks and so far Mets.
It’s January 12. Talk to me on March 12. If we haven’t signed anybody at that point, it will be understandable to be worried. Right now, just sit back and wait and see.
Please bring back Ollie!
I am a fan of Lowe but at 36 and being “Another” righty in our rotation…no thanks.
Ollie will be better he has only scratched the surface at what he can do.
Ollie + Pedro and let’s move on.
i know this has been debated about the money situation and all, but omar has gotta make a statement here. your arch rivals just won the freken WS. sign perez and lowe…
Johan
Lowe
Perez
Pelfrey
Maine
dont see too many people beating that
We’ve had Perez for almost 2.5 seasons. We know he’s inconsistent. We know he can lose his focus at any moment. We also know he tends to pitch better in big games and particularly well against the Phillies and Yankees, two teams we need to beat. He’s nearly 8 years younger than Lowe, entering his prime years based on his lefty heritage. Odds are Perez will produce not quite as good as Lowe in ‘09, match him in ‘10 and exceed him beyond that. So giving Perez 4 years doesn’t bother me nearly as much as giving Lowe 4. Would I go 5? No. Would I give Perez $15M a year? No. But it’s pretty obvious the Mets will ultimately give Lowe $14M a year for 3 years and a moderately attainable 4th year based on innings or some other objective measure. Perez won’t go for much less. There will be at least 4 or 5 teams in the bidding on Perez when the time comes including the Yankees. I look for Perez to get 4 guaranteed years at $12.5M per, $50M over 4 years possibly with a 5th year mutual option. Overpayment based on his career to date? Of course. What pitcher hasn’t gotten overpaid even this off season among starters? Redding got overpaid. Sabathia drastically overpaid for someone whose arm will probably fall off in ‘09. Burnett? Way overpaid. Affeldt? $8M over 2 years. Feh. Dempster? 1 strong season as a starter after years of relieving at age 31 and he gets $52M over 4 years? Farnsworth for god’s sakes over $9M for 2 years? Come on :-) Randy Johnson $8M? Randy Johnson’s son maybe :-) A 2 year deal to Jamie Moyer? What is he? 60?
Randy Johnson last year:
30 GS, over 6 innings a start, 3.93 K/BB ratio, ERA of 3.71, ERA+ of 118 ( 100 = better than lg avg), WHIP of 1.23
8 million a year for that? A year of that is worth about 15 million. The Giants made a pretty decent (age-discounted) deal.
(And to address your primary point: “everybody’s doing it” is about as sound an argument as it was when we were using it in arguing our way into R-rated movies when we were ten. When you’ve got a buyer’s market– and with Sheets, Perez and Wolf all potential options, that’s what you have– you don’t splash the offer pot without confirmation that someone’s got more money offered.)
We’re not signing Lowe and Perez guys. And Pedro is now history. The Mets had at the very most a $30M budget coming into the off season to work with. KRod’s contract is backloaded but still uses close to 1/3 of that. The Putz deal added a few million. Another $2M or so to Redding. So that’s it boys. There’s room for one solid major league starter in the $12M to $14M range, a utility infielder, and maybe another lefty specialist and they’d already be over budget. We can certainly argue the wisdom of whatever budget the Mets decide on based on knowing you’ll sell out 81 games at inflated ticket prices and that you have $20M a year from Citibank (sort of) coming in and a now well established cable network in place. But the Mets have had the third highest salary in the game for some time and there’s no reason to expect that to change.
Next year they drop salary from Delgado, Wagner, Schnieder/Church/Castro I think, and it sounds like they’re hoping to have their rotation for 2010 all set this year with Redding being a stopgap. The bullpen looks to be ok in 2010 if it’s ok in 2009. And if Castillo is a waste in 2008, he’ll likely be gone at the deadline with the money they have saved by being frugal now and leaving some luxury tax cap space.
Yea, because you know exactly what the Mets organization is and isn’t gonna do.
Yes, all the Lowe postings are boring, and yes, there seems to have been 100 of them, but last year we went through the same thing with Johan except ten times worse.
Ollie handles the Phillies really well, kills their lefty hitters with K’s. The Phillies also subtracted Burrell from the right side and added another lefty in Ibanez in an already very lefty heavy line up. Its not hard to see why Oliver would be great to bring back.
we also know how bad he is against every team not named the Yankees or Phillies
Also that the Marlins eat lefties for breakfast.
Ollie was 3–0 with incredible stats against the Marlins last year.
Good point though, right on the money.
I am back on the Ollie bandwagon. He is just so much younger than Lowe, and at 27 he could still completely overcome the inconsistency.
Yes, he gets creamed by the Padres and Mariners after beating the Phils and Yanks, and if/when that changes he becomes an all-star. 27 is still pretty young for a guy with Ollie’s talent.
And in addition, he seems to belong with this group. He was here for 2006, both chokes, and Ollie seems like he should be part of several celebrations on the field and in the clubhouse in 2009.
Lowe is aging, and nothing close to an ace. Yes, he is consistent and reliable, but also not better than very good at best, and has spent his career on mostly very good teams. And he has made his zillions and won a ring. And we need to stop signing old guys. He is looking for one last big payday, while Ollie is approaching what could be an excellent prime.
Johan
Pelfrey
Ollie
Maine
Redding
If everyone is healthy, that can be pretty good. With a pen that blows, say, 15 instead of 29 leads as in 2008, and a pen that can be relied on for many more productive innings if necessary, that’s a really good rotation.
At 27, Ollie Perez is exactly what he is– it’s not like we’re waiting on him to develop a new pitch, or something else that’s tangible. He may have something like one more 2004 season in him, but his career from here on in will likely be a transposed version of the last 4-5 years. At a position where quality innings– and lots of them– are of the essence, that isn’t worth what we may have to pay for it (12 million or so a year).
That just may not be true….you could have said the same thing about Randy Johnson at the same age.
Not saying Ollie will become Randy, but 27 is still pretty young for a wild lefty with great stuff.
It is not the issue of another pitch, as he has all he needs. It is just the issue to find the inner strength to concentrate against the Giants and Mariners and Padres the same way he does against our main rivals. That is certainly easier to do than develop another pitch.
If he was 30, that would be a very different situation. At 27, I think he is VERY worth the risk, considering his very small array of other offers. Which actually may be 0.
The difference? Johnson wasn’t asking for 70 million at this stage in his development.
12 million a year for four years– even these days, even in NY– is a sizable commitment. Perez’s worth a flier… a roll-of-the-dice trade for him, e.g.; for Nady, as a throw-in, that’s a chance worth taking. 45-50 million dollars for a lefty Nuke Laloosh is lunacy.
Well, you make some good points, but Ollie did win 15 games with a good ERA in 29 starts in 2007.
And it was 20 years ago almost when Randy J was in this situation…also, while it is Heyman, meaning very possibly nonsense, 3/30 for Ollie sounds good to me….
Omar really needs to have some very public meetings with the agents for wolf, garland and Sheets. Hard to play lowe and perez against each other since they share an agent!
I also don’t mind the package deal concept. If they are mostly standing pat on offense, and hope to work some young guys in, they better have a damned good pitching staff!
Plus, if they finish up the off season with 2 more FAs, they have conserved all of the prospects to use or trade later, while giving them time to shake out as to who is a keeper.
They also have a lot of holes to fill next year (C and 1B, along with (realistically) 2B still!), so they will need some farm system since the FA cla-ss looks pretty weak.
Reply
Johan
Pelfrey
Ollie
Maine
Redding
is not good enough to make up for the giant holes in our lineup…
I respectfully disagree. We scored plenty last season, and in 2009 when the offense hopefully isn’t playing catchup every day to try and keep up with the bullpen’s generosity, the bats will look much, much better.
Yes, C and 2B are big problems and have the potential to make the 7-8-9 spots a black hole, but 1–6 will still be very productive. And who knows, it isn’t opening day yet. We may still wind up with Dunn or another bat.
sure we scored the 2nd most runs in the NL but that short sited. if we need a run to save the season and Wright, Delgado or Beltran arent up at bat, the game is over…
not to mention that if we need a starter other than Santana to win a big game we know Lowe is capable of winning it, Perez on the other hand hasnt won a big game in his life…
The reason you go for Lowe and not Ollie is because you get 2 draft picks out of Ollie. So its worth overpaying a little on lowe and getting 2 picks than just getting ollie back at a 10+mil per yr contract.
not too mention that Lowe gives the Mets a much better chance of winning on any given day than Perez
People are over-valuing these picks a tad. I’d much rather do what’s right for the team the next 3 years with salary and players then worry about a 20 something draft pick and a compensatory pick. Those guys won’t be ready until both the contracts are up anyways.
While they are valuable, i don’t think they should be the make or break on Ollie over Lowe or vice versa
Agreed. Also the difference in draft picks between signing Ollie and not signing him is small. It’s either:
1) A first rounder & a sandwich pick versus simply a second rounder OR
2) A second rounder & a sandwich pick versus simply a second rounder
It is not that great a difference and not worth pas-sing up one of these starters for another.
I think Ollie is the right direction to go.
I’m just not comfortable giving Lowe the money and years he wants at his age. His ERA is also so much a product of Dodgers stadium. I’m confident Ollie can come within about 1/3 of a run of Lowe’s ERA next year, if not better it. You watch. And in 2010, if Ollie doesn’t get injured, I feel he’ll better Lowe’s ERA.
What’s really bothersome is that some genius decided Citi Field is a hitters park based on one batting practice session and that they are basing their preference of Lowe on that. Ridiculous.
Stay the course, Omar. Don’t give in to Boris.
Amen. Ollie belongs on this team.
Lowe is too old. And Ollie has been almost as good the last two years.
And if Citi turns out to be a pitchers’ park, I think that will be great for us, with Johan and the revamped bullpen.
Ollie “almost as good” as Lowe? Show me meaningful stats that say so, and I’ll concede the point. I’m convincible… I just haven’t seen anything that gibes with what you’re saying.
2007–2008:
Ollie–25–17 W/L; 371 IP; about 1.35 WHIP; about 4 ERA; 184 BB, 354 K.
Lowe–26–25 W/L; 410 IP; about 1.20 WHIP; about 3.60 ERA; 104 BB; 294 K.
Now, yes, the walks sometimes kill Ollie, but all things considered, aren’t these stats “almost as good?”
In addition, Lowe, we can be 100% sure, will not be better than he has been. We would hope for, at best, what he did the last few year. Ollie, on the other hand, is a flaky 27 year old lefty. He can indeed maybe be better than the last two years and will cost less.
what has Ollie done in his 2.5 year tenure with the Mets to make anyone believe that he will just magically learn how to throw strikes…
10 W and a 4.22 ERA in under 6 innings per start is what you expect out of your #5 starter not your #2.
I dont care how much upside he has, or what he does against the lefties or the phillies. he had 2.5 years to show us that he learned how to pitch and so far he has yet to do so. Let some other team take that gamble b/c if Ollie put up average numbers in a contract year man i cant imagine how bad they’d be when he has nothing to lose…
I think we have to agree to disagree here Oleo, but in 2007 Ollie won 15 with a 3.56 ERA in only 29 starts…..
Do you know that Lowe’s road ERA the last 3 years is 4.24?
Take away the pitcher-loving influence of Dodgers stadium and you’re left with a pretty ordinary pitcher.
I bet you Lowe next year is closer to 4.24 in ERA than the 3.24 he put up in his walk year.
Is that what you expect from your #2??
Not to mention that 10 wins and a 4.22 ERA are the STRONGER selling points from last year.
Oliver Perez let up the most walks in the MAJORS last year, and let up the third-most runners.
[Let that sink in... he walked more men than ANYONE IN BASEBALL.]
By most defense-independent pitching metrics, ZITO had a better year.
Walks are bad but not fatal … Ryan walked a ton of batters! ; )
At any rate, no one in their right mind would say Zito had as good a year as Ollie.
Lowe had 20 quality starts last year. Ollie had 17 which is not that much less, especially when you consider that playing in a pitchers park like Dodgers stadium can inflate quality starts a little.
they are lethal when you have to be taken out of the game in the 5th inning b/c you lose your ability to throw a ball right down the middle on a regular basis…especially when your bullpen was a crapshoot the last 2 seasons
Ryan walked a bunch of batters… but struck out a LOT more than Ollie… and any other pitcher in MLB history. (Pretty much the only way damage from walks/cheap hits can be consistently neutralized.)
Ollie’s decent K rates are the only thing that’s kept him afloat the last two years– elsewise, he’s kind of been all over the place. (On the plus side, his wildness has made him somewhat harder to hit.) Not only that, but QS stats are a bit deceiving– Lowe topped 7 innings 12 times last year; OP hit 7 innings 3 times, and topped it twice. Also, 8 starts of 5 innings or less. By most reasonable measures, Lowe has pitched more, and more solid innings over the last 4 years… and the last year-and-a-half was no contest.
Lowe failed to make it out of the 5th inning 13 times last season so he was pretty “lethal” himself.
Does it matter if you’re taken out because you’re wild as opposed to being bombed or running out of gas?
And you want to pay someone ace or #2 money when he didn’t last past 5 innings 13 times last year?
Some of you seem to think Lowe is Johan or nearly as good. He’s not. He’s far from it.
When you can’t even make it to the 6th inning 13 times during the season you do NOT deserve the type of money Lowe is asking for.
David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that the Atlanta Braves made an offer to free-agent pitcher Derek Lowe on Friday.
O’Brien guesses that the Braves’ offer was for more than the New York Mets’ reported three-year offer of $36MM. He also speculates that the annual amount would be at least $15MM in at least a three-plus-an-option deal, if not a four-year deal.
Guesses. Speculation. Christ, if all we’re doing here is guessing, and listening to other people’s guesses, we might as well toss out some fun names– Peavy, Bonds, Manny…
Rough day at work for me.
Here is what I think:
Like all of you, I have been thinking about this for a while. The more I think about it, the more I think Oliver Perez is a better fit for the team. Why you ask? I have to point to the fact that Johan Santana was not the only Mets pitcher who fell to our bullpen’s mishaps. His record is not indicative of how well he actually did pitch. Yes, I know he can be erratic, but with our bullpen, we do not have to lean on him to go so far into games.
However, the biggest problem I have with this is quite simple. Bringing Ollie back is bringing back players that were around during the collapse. I thought that we were going to see new faces, a change. I realized that I wanted Lowe for reasons that I wasn’t completely aware of. It is nothing against Ollie. It has more to do with timing than anything else.
If we do bring back Perez, then I do expect changes in other places. Whether it is in LF, 2B, or C, I expect change. I would be incredibly disappointed if our changes included our off season moves. Frankly, many of our changes were with players that we didn’t want to see go (i.e. Endy, Smith). To me, those moves do not count. Obviously they helped us bring in Putz, whom we desperately needed. But is that all we are getting? Are we expected to keep spending money for the same players, with similar results?
I will always be a Met fan, but I can be a Met fan sitting on my couch.
that stupid Mets patch headline on yahoo is taunting me!!!
3/30 is a good place to start for Ollie, just keeping a tap on him, in case Lowe doesn’t happen.
I do agree with you that the excitement of attending a game in a brand-new ball park could be soured for many fans if there is no more big move made this offseason, especially considering the rising prices of going to see a game, but I guess we’ll just have to see what plays out. At first I was on Team Lowe for reasons of consistency and the idea of having a veteran in the clubhouse, but the more I weigh the options, I agree with others on here that Ollie can only get better, especially considering his age and the signs that he has shown under Warthen. I also think that while Lowe may be a better return for this season, in the long run, a younger Ollie Perez will be a much better payoff, especially since a lot of older players will be up for FA next year and the youth movement the Mets seem to want to continue can only flourish. That being said, one more month until pitchers and catchers! In the immortal words of Edgardo Alfonzo, “Havef un. Be safe. Let’s go Mets.”
Sign Ollie and take a chance on Sheets. We don’t need to get into a bidding war for a 36 year old pitcher whos skills will only diminish over the 4 -5 year contract. Fellow Mets fans haven’t we learned our lesson signing mid 30’s players and relying on them to continue to produce and stay healthy only to find them on the DL half way through the season.
All this Sheets talk is ridiculous. He is extremely injury prone. There is a reason no one wants him.
u wouldnt offer sheets a low contract with tons of incentives? if not, ur insane
Injury-riddled Ben Sheets pitched more innings than OP last year, and started 31 times (55 over the past two years, including a spotty 2007).
Cumulative ERA of 3.34, WHIP of 1.18. And these were his 4th and 6th best years, statistically.
I’d rather sign Ollie, take a chance on a one to two year contract on Sheets, with options for more if he stays healthy.
Now that would be a very good rotation, with the added bonus of being one of the youngest.
right now, the lowe talk should be cooling down, yes he is an above average pitcher, but look at the phillies who we need to beat on a constant basis. ollie helps us big time over lowe, plus with redding we need a lefty in the rotation. if you can get sheets for cheap as i said before with plenty of incentives, you have to do it. tell me you would not feel confident with this rotation…
johan
sheets
ollie
pelfrey
maine
redding or maine
Don’t you think there is a reason no one wants Sheets. There is obvious serious medical information that is not available to the average fan that is making everyone shy from Sheets.
I think it would be adequate to sign Ollie, move Murphy to second, get Nady or Wigginton, then finally get a LHRP.
ur nady/wiggington additions are absurd
I am trying to figure out where 2009 payroll really is. i count 128M INCLUDING Lowe/Perez for 14M per.
35M for Starting rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Maine, Lowe, Redding (15M for 2009 Santana, who deferred 5M, guess 2.5M for arb eligible Maine)(15M, .8M, 2.5M, 14M, 2.25M)
19M for Bullpen of K-rod, Putz, Sanchez, Feliciano, Stokes, Green, Neise (10.5M, 5M, 1.25M, 1.25M, .5M, .5M, .5M)
7.4M for Catchers Castro and Schneider (2.5M, 4.9M)
34M for Infield of Delgado, Castillo, Reyes, Wright, Cora and Garciaparra for 1.5M (my wish list) (12M, 6M, 5.75M, 7.5M, 1M, 1.5M)
19M for Outfield of Church, Beltran, Murphy, Tatis, Pagan (say 3M for arb eligible Church, 13M for Beltran (not counting another 5.5M deferred)(3M, 13M, .5M, 1.7M, .5M)
14M for Injured player and deferred payments … Wagner at 10.5M, Schoenweis 1.6M, Pedro 2M
Adds up to 128M INCLUDING Lowe/Perez … what else is there?? i don’t accept that we don’t have another 20M to upgrade this roster
There’s something like 8-10 million in arbitration raises waiting for us this spring, too. But, yeah… it seems like there should be something left for an Adam Dunn/Abreu flyer, no?
i included raise for Church from 2M to 3M … for Maine from 700K to 2.5M … for sanchez from 800K to 1.25M … for Feliciano from 1.1 to 1.25M … am i lowballing any of those guys? anybody else eligible?
wright and reyes both get a raise of about 1mil each santana gets a 4 mil raise in his 2 nd year
Depends what the budget is, but after they spend around $15 million on a starter, they are basically at the same spending level they were at last year.
Yes you can add a Dunn or Manny, but then that would exceed last year’s payroll by whatever amount you pay them.
that 128M already includes 14M for Lowe/Perez … it also already includes wright and reyes at their 2009 contracts per cot contracts. not saying it has to be manny … but there is definitely more room for more upgrades
They are already at roughly $130 million for the LT payroll factoring in about $6 mill for arb increases.
If they sign Lowe or Ollie, that brings them to $140-$145 million.
There is no run for a big bat unless they exceed last year’s payroll.
There is no “room” ….
when you look at the other teams payrolls in or near our market with the phillies at 108 million before raises atlanta at 90 million or so it just doesnt add up that a team in the # 1 market is holding its salary at 128 million it should be at 140 or 145 Hey its not my money to spend but you have to spend it to make it
Mets attempt to adhere to the Luxury Tax threshold just like the Red Sox do and every team but the Yankees.
Last year they spent about $144 million on the LT payroll. They are currently at about 130 million when you factor in arb increases.
ollie take it!! ollie for perezident
Omar is playing free agency like no other GM,we are not overpaying like the Yankee GM.
by getting Redding it also put pressure on negotiations,I would make Wolf an offer too,redding is for long relief so why not get Wolf for the fifth spot but letting Lowe and Ollie they might of lost a bidder,Lowe is our target and Boras is very hard to deal with Omar is doing the best possible and so far getting Putz and Krod where awesome moves,I say sign Wolf now and put more pressure on the negotiations.
Well, it looks like we’re f–ked in regards to Lowe:
From SI.com:
“Free-agent right-hander Derek Lowe is in serious discussions with the Atlanta Braves, SI.com has learned.
The Braves are trying hard to finalize a deal that would solidify their rotation. The deal for Lowe is believed to be for close to $60 million over four years. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution first reported the Braves were offering about $15 million per year in their efforts to beat the rival New York Mets to Lowe”
Bottom line is: we will end up with either Lowe or Perez and there are good arguments for pursuing each pitcher. I’m fine with either one to be honest, even though Ollie drives me crazy sometimes. Lefties seem to mature a little later than right handers. And if Lowe gets 4 years for $15 per from another team, then I say let them have him and we’ll take Ollie.
If Omar gets Ollie at 3/ 30, then go for it. I have a feeling that offer will have to get hiked up a bit, at least to the 3 /36 offering for Lowe. I would be willing to give Ollie a 4th year. If he would take 4 at between 40-44 million, I would do it. Like him or not, Ollie has talent and has produced two consecutive seasons that have been better than pitchers have gotten bigger contracts that that, i.e. Carlos Silva.
I agree. While it is clear Lowe is a better pitcher than Ollie, I just don’t think he is that much better when you consider the difference in ages.
Add to that the fact that Perez has locked down the Phillies and things look even better for Perez.
Now, if Lowe costs 4 yr / 15 million per year and Perez costs 4 years / 11 million per year, I think it has to become a no brainer. Perez is a much better value, and would only be 31 when the contract expired. So you’d pay Perez 44 million for what amounts to the prime years of most lefties’ careers. Could the 16 million saved get you Ben Sheets on a one year deal as well? Or help to sign or trade for a power bat in left field?
And don’t forget, if the Yankees sign Perez, the Mets would end up with a fourth round pick and a supplemental pick, not a first rounder.
If the Mets can’t get Lowe, Perez is the next best thing. He stays healthy and is a young lefty. We just have to deal with his ups and downs he has. Maybe one day I hope he finds “it” and he starts pitching more consistently. We shall see.
I think 4/44 will do the job and I am fine with Perez over Lowe. Think about this. For all the talk about consistancy, pitchers (unless they are cusp Hall of Famers) usually start to wind down about the age that Lowe is now. Also, pitchers who come into their prime, usually do it at Ollie’s age now.
Granted, I am saying that Ollie will improve and not regress and that Lowe is going to start to show his age, but I’m more willing to take the chance on youth rather than age (after all, age has given us so much to look forward to-Alou, El Duque, Glavine, etc., etc.)
Stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid 36 times, stupid.
Ollie needs to accept. In this market, this is a gift. Omar just lowballed lowe so that he could give Ollie a gift contract that will net him twice what he’s worth, blow two draft picks, and lose a legitimately good pitcher in Lowe.
For a moment, I forgot this was the Mets front office. For a moment, I forgot that this was the Omar Minaya who brought us Bartolo Colón, Luis Castillo, Lastings Milledge, Marlon Anderson, and Heath Bell. I forgot that this is the Omar Minaya who can’t build rosters, who knows how to buy a superstar and throw away complimentary talent, and who can’t evaluate talent. I forgot that this was the Mets we’re talking about.
We are run by idiots.
Please explain how signing Ollie would “blow two draft picks,” as those picks would go to the team that had signed him before he went FA . . . which was the Mets. We’d “blow two draft picks” by losing them to ourselves?
Lowe has put up some good numbers, but he’s 36, as someone above pointed out. Ollie is 27. Nine years less wear-and-tear. Ollie is arguably a lot better than Carlos Silva, so he deserves at least as much as Silva. 4 years, $48 mil. Two big reasons to do this in general are the Braves and Phillthies.
We would not “blow two” draft picks, but you know what he meant. If we sign Ollie rather than let him go, then the Mets would forego the draft pick compensation it would have received had another team signed Ollie.
Ollie’s deal is better than one of the worst contracts ever signed, therefore, Ollie’s deal is good.
Yup, Yup.
If another team signs Ollie, we get their pick + a supplemental pick; thus if we sign Ollie instead of Lowe, we blow those picks AND sign a FAR inferior pitcher for similar money.
Why did I ever entertain the possibility that Omar was anything but an idiot?
for the picks, they would retain their pick that would be lost for Lowe.
So, depending on which team signed which guy (since some 1st round picks are protected), the net effect of signing Perez instead of Lowe is the Mets would lose a compensation round pick.
Not, IMO, enough to sway getting the “best” pitcher, but the Mets theoretically are also saving a lot of money/year that could be redirected to either better ML talent, or to an international FA signing. So one way or another, the lost ick will be made up for.
Bartolo Colon? When was he on the Mets?
By “brought us Bartolo Colon” I meant brought the baseball world, as in “We at Citibank are proud to bring you”…
Yep, Minaya has his heart set on Perez and thus we’ll be stuck with the same bullpen killer and choke artist for at least the term of Minaya’s contract!
You know the worst thing about Omar’s contract? …… You.
This is sickening!!! If this is how it’s going, Bye Bye NY Mets. No, I’m not going anywhere as a fan, but I’m afraid, they might not be going anywhere either. Yeah Omar, he’s your man – forget that the Braves or Phils might pick up Lowe and that we lose out on the 2 draft picks. The people who are worried about how Manny would loaf off with a new contract, should take a friggin look at Omar.
On the bright side, I hear that the Mets are considering a Mets-Sham-Wow give away day. Who needs Lowe or Ollie with give-aways like that!
I still think if Omar holds fast then can get 1 of these 2 at a good price. At this point I would not over pay for either.
David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that the Atlanta Braves made an offer to free-agent pitcher Derek Lowe on Friday.
“O’Brien guesses that the Braves’ offer was for more than the New York Mets’ reported three-year offer of $36MM. He also speculates that the annual amount would be at least $15MM in at least a three-plus-an-option deal, if not a four-year deal.”
If that’s the case let Atlanta cripple their finances and stay away.
We could have Perez and Garland for that price.
Yeah I heard on the radio this morning 4 years @ 15mil I think it was
I might go 3/45 but for sure not 4/60 for a 37 year old pitcher.
The Bullpen Killer Perez is worth a minor league contract unless MLB expands rosters to accommodate more bullpen help when Perez walks the park.
While I don’t like Perez and would rather have Lowe, with the difference in salary you can upgrade the offense.
You could have Wiggy and Perez for the same price as Lowe right now.
The Angels are in the mix now for Dye. They are desperate for another bat. I am telling you now is the time to trade Delgado to the Angels.
Get a young starter or Figgins and Morales. Then use that 12 million towards a guy like hmmm, Manny.
Should happen but won’t happen.
For the same moeny you could even just sign Dunn to replace Delgado, and get the players to boot.
omar is right about preferring ollie instead of lowe. and omar is also right about preferring MANNY for LF. the rest of the “front office” are idiots.
You are right about Manny but under the current finances we can’t afford him. But why not get creative so you can? Trade Delgado to the Angels or Giants for a SP or other holes. Then sign Manny with that 12 million.
i agree about unloading delgado. but signing manny is essential regardless. btw, the limited finance thingee is just wilpons blowing smoke. deeeeeep pockets. they already said the madoff fiasco had zero effect on the mets operation. sny, citifield….there is PLENTY of funding for manny.
You may say there is, but there is not. Name a MLB team that’s salary has went up so far? Not even the Yankee’s has.
Ok, here is one off the wall that I saw on another site that would never happen.
Delgado and Castillo to the Yankee’s for Nady, Cano and Igwa.
Yeah, just want the Yankees want while they’re rebuilding – two old players.
I hope that was a Yankee site…that deal is AWFUL. Igawa? Unless we need a new clubhouse attendant, no thanks.
And this just in, Nady is not a 1B, and Cano is painfully streaky and overrated.
Funny how you can post a trade and one poster says that the Yankee’s would be crazy and the other says the Mets would be crazy. That’s true sometimes I guess.
Here is how the finances break down
Delgado 12 million 1 year
Castillo 18 million 3 years
Yearly cost of 18 million
Nady 5 million
Cano 25 million 3 years with 2 option years
Igwa 12 million 3 years
Yearly cost of 15 million
Mets lineup would be
Reyes, Murphy, Wright, Beltran, Nady, Church, Cano, Schnieder.
Not better but maybe deeper?
that’s a second place lineup. plus cano is a yankee pig
As Matt pointed out, if Lowe signs away from the Mets, Omar will have to “short cover” and overpay for Ollie.
Lowe 3×12 – won’t get the deal done;
Ollie 3×10 – won’t get the deal done.
After blowing all that money on the pen, I would hope that Minaya & Co would at least pay mid market, rather than trying to finesse a desperately needed Starter.
“Blowing” money on the pen? Really? You don’t think that was necessary?
At this point I hope they don’t. When Lowe is signed there won’t be many suitors for Perez. If Perez is signed there won’t be many places for Sheets. When Sheets is signed there won’t be many places for Garland, Wolf, etc.
If we have 17-20 million to spend on pitching then Omar is going to spend it somewhere. We may not get who WE want but either way we will get a bargain.
I don’t know, I looked up all the stats over the past two years. And while it is clear Lowe is a better pitcher than Ollie, I just don’t think he is that much better when you consider the difference in ages.
Add to that the fact that Perez has locked down the Phillies and things look even better for Perez.
Now, if Lowe costs 4 yr/15 million per year and Perez costs 4 years / 11 million per year, I think it has to become a no brainer. Perez is a much better value, and would only be 31 when the contract expired. So you’d pay Perez 44 million for what amounts to the prime years of most lefties careers.
And don’t forget, if the Yankees sign Perez, the Mets would end up with a fourth round pick and a supplemental pick, not a first rounder.
Someone needs to say it out loud…
NEITHER OF THESE GUYS ARE REAL DIFFERENCE MAKERS.
Both are decent pitchers. Lowe is the better of the 2 and is probably a real #2 whereas OP’s lack of consistency makes him more of a 3 and a legit 2 on his good days and on his bad days…a 5.
2 years from now… OP will be the better pitcher…not necessarily from his improvements but likely Lowes slow decline.
If the deals were the same for just 3 years…you’d pick Lowe. If they go 4 and more money…the better pick is OP.
But neither of these guys are real difference makers. Neither win 18 games for us. Neither strikes fear in the opponents when facing him. Neither is a vast improvement to the starting rotation.
The fact is…Redding is the vast improvement over last years starter because his starts went to a lousy Pedro, Brandon Knight, Stokes, Neise (who was not ready last year), etc etc.
Last years rotation with Redding in it would have helped us to get 2 – 3 more wins which would have likely gotten us to the playoffs.
This years pen added into…we should expect another 5 – 7 wins from not blowing as many games.
Add that us and it should be good for a max of 10 more wins which would be 99 wins for the yr.
That wins us the division with no other changes in my mind.
Go with OP.
Look for a LF bat you can get at a good price.
Improve the bench a bit and lets go to war.
At this point I would much rather sign Sheets and Garland than to mess with either.
That should not cost you but about 18-20 million and with Lowe costing 16 that’s an easy decision.
Newsday is reporting (that SI is reporting) that the Braves upped their offer to Lowe to 4 years/$60MM.
If so, good riddance. He’s not worth it. Move on to Ollie.
They also report that Redding knocks the Mets out of Pedro consideration. Frankly, given Redding’s willingness to pitch out of the pen, I think he is perfect insurance for Pedro. I still want to give him a shot.
I would just wait around on getting another starter. There will be a Kyle Loshe of 2008/2009. Someone will be left out. It could be a guy like Pedro or it could even be a guy like Wolf.
4/60 is really just absurd. Especially since the Braves probably won’t even compete for a title this year and Lowe is just getting older and older.
Adreed, If you can bring Pedro back for a yr
w/an option AFTER Ollie’s locked up that would be fine.Still the OF needs to be addressed. Since there will be no Manny,if
Omar can sign Abreu to a Burrell type deal
why not? It would certainly be an upgrade to
the bunch of castoffs and questionmarks
we have out there now(except Bel-Tron of
course). AND he still needs to bring in
Insurance for Luis Aches&Pains.
What about bringing in Abreu and trading Delgado for pitching? Then you still have a lot of money left.
Delgado clears up 12 million. Abreu and Hudson would cost about 15 million total right now. That adds 3 million but you had planned on spending about 18 milion on pitching so you still have 15 million left to spend on other up grades. Get Pudge for 2 million, Garland for 8 million and you still have 5 million for another bench player and a BP guy.
I don’t really like Hudson but what about a lineup that looked like this
Reyes, Murphy, Abreu, Wright, Beltran, Church, Hudson, Schnieder/Pudge?
Johan, Pelfrey, Sachez, Maine, Garland/other signing, Redding, Niese
offense reality check: what do ya think will happen when delgado slumps, beltron is on the DL, church is dizzy, wright cant by a hit with that loopy uppercut, slappy is slappy, and schneider is lame? you think MANNY would come in handy?
LOL
get a grip
you dont think that is a possible scenario? i think it is PROBABLE. i tell you, the offense needs attention.
Possible, not probable. Not all at the same time anyway.
Look you are setting yourself up for disapointment by being so close-minded. All of us agree you need to upgrade the offense. 90% of us would like to have Manny. However, 90% of us realize that it’s not going to happen and understand that we are not doomed if it does not.
A possible scenario? Yeah, definitely. But it’s also very possible that the Mets sign Manny and then HE goes on the DL for a stretch of time.
Delgado in a sustained slump – 50%
Beltran on the DL for more than 15 games in 2009 – 10%
Slappy being slappy – 80%
Scneider being lame – 90%
Beltran has played in at least 140 games almost every season of his career (with the exception of 2000) – why would you expect him to play less than that?
Things happen, but Beltran isn’t likely to go on the DL, Church isn’t likely to have another concussion. David Wright is a great player. I doubt Schneider is worse than last year, and Castillo will probably be better due to recovery time and the ability to have a spring training.
The only one that seems remotely possible is Delgado slumping, and it’s likely he’ll be down a little from last year.
Just because we can upgrade our offense for now by throwing money at it doesn’t mean we should. I’d rather not block Murphy. I’d rather sign good utility guys for the bench. I’d rather realize that the offense would’ve looked, and will look, much better if the bullpen holds leads.
you really do like to look at the worst possible scenerio, don’t you?
So how about this: what happens when they blow the budget to give manny his 3/75, so they go cheap in the rotation, then Manny gets hurt (he is going to be 37, right?)
Or, Manny figures he has his last contract locked in, so he decides to start relaxing (semi-retirement?) and his numbers tail off?
unlikely. plus it is a known fact that manny is in better shape that 90% of mlb players of any age. i would take a pricey chance on manny for sure.
You can’t play this game nostra.
The odds of Manny being Manny are better than Beltran being on the DL for a long stint or Wright not being able to hit. They may all be low but still the odds are about the same.
Manny is a great hitter but is not super-human cure all. If Manny was on the team and Beltran got injured, Wright could not hit and Delgado slummped we STILL would not make the playoffs.
Lowe at 4/60? that goes beyond the bounds of common sense.
Perez is OK at less money, but if he ends up in that price range, go a different direction.
Omar can put together a solid rotation from other guys available, with less LT commitment, and budget $ left over to hopefully beef up the position players.
Also, when comparing Lowe to Ollie, and somehow discounting the home/road splits for Lowe a bit, they are not that far apart.
But, the big difference is related to age, and that is Lowe has no real upside, in that he probably had as good a year as possible in 2008, so while he may come close to repeating, he really has no likely place to go but down.
Ollie, though, at 27 still has room to improve (finally put it together?) based on his “stuff” and the track record of other flaky lefties. hard to imagine him getting worse, but he easily could rebound and do better (maybe Warthan for a full year helps).
Both getting 1 year deals? Sign Lowe. Being stuck with one of them for 4 years? Take Ollie.
And if there ends up being a 4 million difference/year? take Ollie, and put that money into another player.
Say Ollie could be had for 11/year, and Lowe goes for 16. Well, that 5 mill is almost what Castillo makes!
SO, how about it becomes Lowe vs. Ollie – Castillo (gets cut!)
conversely, you could say it is Lowe vs. Ollie + wiggington/juan cruz/some other guys.
And sign sheets to a smoltz like contract.
I would think that it would take at least 8 million guarnteed for Sheets. It may be worth it but you would really have to look at those medical records.
Lowe @4×15 = 60 means its going to take 4×13 = 52 to land Ollie.
Those who miss out on Lowe will certainly turn to Ollie. We aren’t the only ones looking at him (someone just a little south of us on I-95, perhaps)?
I’m OK with Ollie. He’s getting better, and he’s a lefty. With Lowe, the rotation isn’t as balanced, and he and Pelfry show the same pitches.
The Phils aren’t likely to have budget left for another 7 figure signing. They also seem to be pretty set with their rotation.
And would not add another LHP either.
i’m gagging on my breakfast. so the starting rotation will be the same except we swap pedro for tim redding. so typical
Honestly, don’t you think if we had Redding last year instead of Pedro we win 1 more game?
And *knock on wood* an entire year of Pelfrey pitching well and a healthy Maine.
Well, yes and no. and maybe.
- the 5th spot was the black hole last year, so if Redding can be consistantlly average, and make his starts, and not kill the pen, that will be a huge help.
Maine is also back, and hopefully stronger now that the bone spur was taken care of.
Pelfry and Santana I expect to be solid.
So if erratic Ollie has one of his “up” years, it will be better.
But still, the rotation for the most part was not the problem last year.
So I don’t care if it is the same guys or all new ones, just what I think they can do in 2009.
I was just playing the imposible what if game. One would have to as sume that if the Mets had Redding last year instead of Pedro they would have won at least 1 more game due to all the junk that started in his place.
here’s the thing about the ollie-lowe debate…..OLLIE IS A MET THRU AND THRU. give the guy credit.
I really just want to get these guys signed, someplace.
Once Omar has his additional SP, we can see (hope for) the rest of the moves to fine tune the roster.
i am still hoping for some nice wheeling/dealing to improve the team. Not sure we will get it, but there is always that chance…
Might be too much to hope for to get a bombshell like moving Delgado, but something might happen for the OF or C (or pray, 2B).
Plus, if some of the FAs get left out in the cold, Omar may be able to snap up a bargain 9having conserved some budget). Dunn, Hudson, Sheet, Wolf, Abreboo, etc. could go abnormally cheap and/or ST deal
I have really started to change my mind on Hudson. Not because I think he is good but because now it looks like 1-2 years might get him. That would be perfect. We work on trading Castillo but have Hudson for 2/14. We can absorb that cost.
we better hope Pelfrey can at least match last years season b/c if not we’re pretty much screwed…
I believe the Mets will make Pedro an offer, once everything else gets sorted out. He has too much upside to ignore. Remember that last year’s starting 5 (including the black hole known as the number 5 pitcher) would have won at LEAST 5 more games if we had a reliable pen. Add another LOOGY, take our chances in LF. We win at least 92 games.
Over the hump and into the playoffs. Where bullpens are Uber Important.
Come on Matt, can we please get a new post?
therealsince86 says:
January 13, 2009 at 7:30 am
David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported that the Atlanta Braves made an offer to free-agent pitcher Derek Lowe on Friday.
“O’Brien guesses that the Braves’ offer was for more than the New York Mets’ reported three-year offer of $36MM. He also speculates that the annual amount would be at least $15MM in at least a three-plus-an-option deal, if not a four-year deal.”
If that’s the case let Atlanta cripple their finances and stay away.
We could have Perez and Garland for that price.
^^thank you for thinking smart, lmao at you other idiots spazzing out you think the phillies are gonna throw more money @ lowe then the dumb@$$ braves?? *didn’t think so*
I believe that at this point, it makes sense to keep our draft pick and just sign Ollie.