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Instead of signing Oliver Perez to what could end up 
being a four-year deal, possibly worth as much as $12 million per season, I suggest the Mets use a ‘Basket Solution.’
Yesterday, I asked readers of MetsBlog.com what Perez was worth, and the more-than 4,400 people who voted essentially said he should get a four-year deal, which pays him roughly $13 million per season.
“He’s possibly one of those guys who can win the Cy Young award every year,” Billy Wagner told New York Post yesterday, when asked about Perez. “It’s just, which Ollie is going to show up?”
From what I can gather, free agent Randy Wolf is likely to sign for between $7 and $10 million, but the Mets are unlikely to offer more than $5 million – the same can most likely be said for free agents Jon Garland and Pedro Martinez.
Meanwhile, people around baseball believe free agent Ben Sheets is open to accepting a one-year deal, for roughly $6 million with major incentives – such as Brad Penny and John Smoltz accepted from the Red Sox.
However, Sheets is also a Type-A free agent and was offered arbitration by the Brewers, which means a club would lose a draft pick if it signed him.
The Blue Jays have been listening to offers for Roy Halladay, but there is no evidence they are seriously open to trading him – unless the deal 
included a top-flight pitching prospect I would assume.
Lastly, the buzz in San Francisco suggests the Giants will move Jonathan Sanchez or Noah Lowry, but will likely require a major-league bat in return.
Nevertheless, John Maine, Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey will be counted on to make 90 or so starts for the Mets in 2009, leaving 60 or so starts to come from other pitchers.
However, don’t forget, Maine is returning from shoulder surgery and Pelfrey is entering only his second full major-league season – not to mention Santana had knee surgery in October. In other words, nothing is a given in the current starting rotation. So, the Mets need to be very careful with how they structure those 60 other starts.
The Mets should use the same money it will cost to keep Perez, and instead sign Sheets and one of Garland, Wolf or Martinez, or a pitcher acquired by trade, who, with Tim Redding and Jon Niese, will be more than capable of filling the missing 60 starts, and also can be called upon in case Maine, Pelfrey or Santana ever become unavailable.
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Or the Mets should act like a big market team befitting of the NY title, and sign both Ollie and Sheets…AND MANNY!!!
Bottom line…we need all 3, and we’d win. That’s all that matters.
Don’t tell me about finance either….the Mets fan base is so starved for a signature season that business would boom. What better year than the opening of a new park to make a mark with a signature year? As Rob Schneider likes to say…’You Can Do EET!’
From the beginning too….make the big signings, and get the year off on the right foot, and the enthusiasm up….get some momentum…change the oil of the team’s chemistry….Manny shakes things up, Ollie is key, and if you add Sheets…forget about it…uncontainable ubiquitous jubilation through out….
If Ollie played for another team, we’d be focused in on him big time. He’s only going to get better, the question is, with the way the fans treat him, does he still want to play here?
I like Matt’s idea. Sheets and Wolf. Redding to be the long man out of the pen. Niese in AAA. Then try to find a bat for LF. It would be nice, but it will not be Manny.
yeah ok jeter…shouldn’t you be off tanning for your date with Alex later?
Ollie and Sheets. + Manny = Rings…
Say what you want, but I don’t think that Omar will give Boras his asking price for Ollie. Nor will Wilpon allow Omar to pay Manny. What does that leave us with? Santana, Maine, Pelf are set for a few years. Niese needs one full year in AAA. Redding is a stop gap for one year. We need to pick up probably two pitchers. Sheets, Wolf, Garcia, Garland. Which two? It would great to lock Ollie for 3 or 4 years, but at what price???
Sheets and Wolf? Come on man, are you kidding or what? Will never happen. Omar is poised to shy away from players with injury history, however he has a backup plan which with the group of available players, he probably would take a risk on 1 maximum player with such a history for the right structured contract. But 2? Never gonna happen under Omar’s watch.
I understand and agree but other than Ollie, who is not an injury risk? Sheets, yes. Wolf, yes. Garcia, yes. Garland, doesn’t impress me. I would love to lock up Ollie at a reasonable price. No more than 4/44. Will Boras allow that? Stay tuned…….My belief is that an injury risk is worth a one year shot with Redding and Niese in waiting.
Derek, at this point, I do not see the Mets not resigning Perez. There simply’s not another young high reward, healthy, valued player available. But I think in addition to Oliver, Omar will still gamble on a Wolf/Sheets type.
I’ve always had nothing but love for Ollie, and I still do. He’s one of my guys…I actually suggested the Nady to Pittsburgh deal for Robo and Ollie about 2 months before it happened…ad nauseum on the Mets message board….I love Ollie….I hope he comes back….
What contract, realistically, to you think Boras will fetch for him though? That’s the problem.
I’d offer 4 for 44 + cy young incentives, and then offer Sheets a contract…..
I don’t think 4/44 gets it done, honestly. Also … if the Mets dish out 4/44 or higher, most likely, knowing them … they won’t make any other moves after that.
who’s got more than 40 mil to throw around? No one.
That’s what you say zer. We’ll see.
That trade cost the Mets a trip to the world series.
No, Shawn Green did.
If Ollie doesnt start game 7…who would?
do u think that we roll with 9 relievers that day!?!?
Willie not bunting valentin and endy over had much more to do with it than oliver perez…nady…or shawn greene
Yes, but fortunately the Mets know Ollie and know what he’s capable of – both in a good and bad way.
I’d prefer the Sheets + Garland/Pedro option to Ollie – I’m sick of the Ollie Coaster and despite the conventional wisdom, he is NOT clutch.
I dont see any combination of Sheet, Pedro, Wolf signing by Omar. He frowns on injury history and wont do it. Maybe 1 out of the group maximum.
He didn’t frown on Alou, and he knew Pedro and El Duque were definite injury risks given their age.
If Sheets is looking for something in the neighborhood of 1 year/ $6 million, I don’t think Omar would frown on that too much – especially if he can get a back up as well as has been suggested.
Exactly, gamble on 1 player in the rotation. Talking about the rotation, lets stay focused here. 1 pitcher that potientially could payoff big time. Where not talking about the Yankees here. Do you think Omar’s gonna put multiple 1 pitch away from retirement starting pitchers on the Mets? Not happening! LOL but thanks for the conversation
I have to agree with this statement.
I see no way that Ben Sheets is going for 1 year and $6 million plus incentives. But if in some fantasy world it were possible to sign him for that, it should no way stop the Mets from giving Ollie a max of 4 yrs and 52 million.
Could you imagine having all of the following pitchers being capable of starting a game? :
Johan
Sheets
Pelfrey
Ollie
Maine
————–
Redding
Niese
Parnell
Stokes
Figueroa
Last year Figgy was the “sixth” starter. This year he would be 10th in line with that rotation.
agree ilk…. congrats to this site for officially declaring the NY METS a Small Market Team. When do we move the team to Albany? Gee, let get all the junmk guys who are cheap so we can field a team. Thanks metsblog for recognizing the sad strate of the Albany small market mets franchise.
lol, I think they’re testing the market with the Buffalo Bisons first…
Rod, Kherub, you are both so wrong.
Kherub, you are clearly not as negative and unreasonable as Kanehl, but I just do not get how grown up adults can come on here every day and call the Mets a small market team.
It is just so stupid, childish, and completely incorrrect.
It’s not about being a small market team, I’m not calling them that…I’m calling them a small minded team which in my opinion is a lot worse. I’m reading these Minor League transactions, and pulling my hair out that the Mets have no interest in any of these guys…WHY NOT claim Shelley Duncan off waivers? Why not go after Mike MacDougal? There’s just a slew of guys out there that it makes sense for the Mets to be in on…and if they were a small market team, they probably would be….Not that I’m enamored with Ephialtes AKA Shelley Duncan(yes, that’s a 300 reference), but it makes sense…he can play Left/First…has some pop and bats Right handed…why not waiver for him?
The Mets don’t act like a team that’s earnestly trying to win it all, and that’s what bothers me. Go for the gold man.
holycow.typepad.com/holycow/images/2008/01/26/ephialtes.jpg
OK, small-minded I can agree with. They DO spend enough, maybe it is the spending decisions they make which are the problem. And I do agree that the front office does sometimes show surprisingly mediocre judgment on off the field issues, like the silly Citi Field patch, having the Shea farewell after the game, not retiring Keith’s number, not honoring their past great players nearly as much as they should and other teams do, etc. There is something missing in the overall front office structure, but the number of dollars they spend is NOT the problem.
I know you are not a miserably negative type like Kanehl, whose EVERY post is silly, mindless negativity. Sorry to group you with him.
I couldn’t even watch the Shea farewell….I was so disgusted I just turned the tv right off…
Well, they put themselves in this position where they need to spend more now than they would otherwise by not spending in the draft the last 5 years….We should have Nick Adenhart, Dellin Betances, Lars Anderson, and Jeff Larish just to name a few…these are guys I stumped for over the years pre-draft pretty hard that dropped and could have easily been taken by the Mets…and then they’re gonna take Ike Davis? Are you serious? Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Connor Gillaspi, TANNER SCHEPPERS!!…amidst many others…like some of the guys that dropped…keep an eye out for Riccio Torres…the Mets couldn’t find a place to take Isaac Galloway? Preston Paramore? No no, we need to draft Sean Ratliff and Charles Doyle…give me a break…and then they wonder why they need to spend in free agency to appease the angry fan base….give me a break.
SIGN MANNY!!!
All the Red Sox have done is bring guys in on minor league/incentive deals. Does that make them small minded too?
I’m raging over the Red Sox moves this off-season. THE METS COULDN’T GET ANY OF THOSE GUYS!!? GIVE ME A BREAK!! Game is fixed. Penny, Smoltz, Baldelli, Saito….I’d of taken them all, and been very pleased. I’d still want Ollie and Manny though : )
KYLE LONG!! You can’t draft Kyle Long? He got drafted like 650….
Pay for PEDRO BEATO AND JEREMY BARFIELD!!!
Cody Satterwhite….Derrick Saito.
The Mets do not spend “enough” based on their ticket prices and other revenue streams, like their own cable network.
See the team across town for a perfect example.
Now I’m not advocating the Mets being the Yankees, but I’m not going to defend the Wilpons for what they spend compared to teams like Pittsburgh, either.
Rod, ILK…..you’re both right. The Mets need to strap ‘em on and make their statement. All three would do it. If it were to happen, what ballpark does that put the Mets’ 2009 payroll?
Sheets is looking for a one year with incentives, the article says 6 million + incentives…I think Ollie could be had for 4 for 44 + cy young incentives…maybe 4 for 48……and Manny would cost probably about 23…
23 + 12 + 6 = 41 million + 120ish = 160ish….the luxury tax thresh hold is at 165…..and if you go over it for one year you’re exempt anyway….but I think the Mets could free up some salary by dishing Schneider, and trading what’s necessary for either Saltalamaccia or Teagarden….not to mention it would make us a better team going forward….they missed the boat by not shipping Schneider off for Freel….but I’m sure they can find a taker for Schneider….Castillo I believe could be moved too…I just think GM’s always try to rip Omar off, and he tends to let them…
Come on man – was Omar ripped of in the Santana trade or for Putz, or Maine or for Nady and Sanchez?
Omar has made some puzzling contracts, Castillo being the most obvious, but also re-sigining El Duque and to a lesser extent Alou. But in terms of trades he’s done a pretty good job overall.
I don’t agree. His 2006-2007 offseason was one awful trade after another. Santana fell into his lap. Putz and Maine were his best moves. Overall he’s average at best.
The Mets would sell out every game in Albany … just like the Bills sell out in Buffalo. They would just get no TV revenue.
At least moving the team would give the excuse of being in a small market so they don’t have to spend any money.
Yeah, it is annoying on how the Mets insist on keeping their 140 million payroll right down there belowPittsburgh, KC, and the Nationals.
Why do the yankays make so much money? Because they spend what it takes to win….in NY…so Ny has clearly demonstrated it supports winners financially…spend to win, it’s that simple. Ny is an easy place when you understand it….
They have had the YES network for longer, have the Yankee brand (merchandise, road atendencee), and they charge a bunch more for a lot of their tickets.
although some rumors were posted that they don’t make as much money as many people think (or not profit with their high payroll).
No one here really knows how much the Mets or Yankees make, especially with the fuzzy accounting used for TV contracts (the sports networks).
Actually, the Yankee’s make so much money because of name recognition and that has very little to do with the current team. Yankee stadium was “the house that Ruth built”, and the idea of wearing pinstripes still relates more to players like DiMaggio and Mantle than it does to Jeter and A-Rod.
You can go to nearly any merchandise store in the country and pick up Yankees stuff (read crap). I can’t think of another MLB team that can say that.
The Mets aren’t small market, as evident by having the highest salary in the NL, but throwing money at anyone who has a pulse will not generate the revenue the Yankees get.
If the Mets added Manny it’d do WONDERS for their National popularity…..and likely abroad as well….Manny is really a no brainer…..
Thats true. He has no brain.
Sorry but I see a disconnect when prices are more than doubled and payroll stays the same.
I would sign Pedro now with incentives…this would change the dynamics and force Sheets and Perez to compete for whatever money is left in the Mets budget.
Matt are you on drugs? It is a clear fact that quality always wins over quantity.
Signing Oliver Perez and using one of the minor leaguers for those other spots is better than Wolf + Garland and it will cost the same.
5 Quality starters is better than 8 league average starters.
Now signing both Ollie and Sheets should be the best way to go, using Redman as a backup for when Sheets misses the 15-20 starts he will undoubtedly miss, and as a long reliever. during the 15-20 starts he does make.
If Sheets will go for a smoltz like deal worth 5 or 6 with losts of incentives I can not see how the Mets wouldn’t take that deal and still get Ollie….
In case you haven’t noticed, the Mets have run out of starters the last two years. Quantity (as long as it’s not at the level of Lima, Lawrence, Knight, etc.) is a nice thing to have, too.
So, what is a basket solution anyway? Maybe it’s just that I haven’t drank my coffee yet, but I was reading and looking for the explanation of what that was supposed to mean and never got one? :)
Go to Costco and buy in bulk…
Looks like the basket approach is to not put all the eggs into OP but to sign multiple guys like Sheets and Garland or Sheets and Wolf or Sheets and Pedro and have 6 starters plus Neise in AAA.
I like the approach actually in that I think Sheets is better than OP and will have the side benefit of making it that much harder on Boras to screw us again.
Sheets on a 1 yr deal with incentives plus Pedro on a 1 yr deal with incentives plus Redding, Maine, Pelfrey and Santana makes a nice group of starters if healthy and some depth when Sheets or Pedro are DL’d
BINGO
I think Ollie is still the best option left out there. And I don’t mind the Mets overpaying for him because of his age and talent, and the fact that he’s proven he can win in NY.
If Sheets is willing to do 1 year/ $6 million, I think you have to take a run at him if you’re Minaya. But it also makes you wonder just how bad his arm must be right now.
If he’s even close to healthy, Sheets would have made $15-18 million per year this winter.
I agree. The Mets should get Ollie and still go for Sheets one year deal(if true). I disagree with the idea of not signing Perez and using that money for the other three pitchers, because that would leave the Mets in the same situation next year and looking for a starting pitcher, and its not a sure thing they would be able to get all of them.
I really hope they’re taking a hard look at Sheets. I would sense the Type A / giving up a draft pick is the big hestitation – otherwise he’s clearly worth the risk.
Not sure what the basket solutoin is here – all things considered, I’d go with quality over quantity – but would put signing Sheets in the ‘quality’ category, not ‘quantity’. I’d stay away from Wolfe and Garland – not sure what they really bring, as Redding already fills the back end of the rotation.
“I would sense the Type A / giving up a draft pick is the big hestitation – otherwise he’s clearly worth the risk.”
That doesn’t make sense. They’ll be giving up a lower (better) pick if they sign Ollie. (I think)
He was on the Mets last year – they don’t lose a draft pick if they sign him to another contract this year.
Duh.
But if another team signs him they get a draft pick. And if the Mets sign him, they don’t get that potential draft pick. It’s the same outcome.
If the Yankees sign him the Mets would get like a 4th round pick because all the other picks are already gone with higher ranked players like Sabathia, Teixeira, etc.
Ollie and Sheets. END OF STORY
since DAY ONE of free agency, ollie and sheets shoulda been our targets (along with redding and pedro for the inevitable DL trips starters go to during the year)
You are correct…Sheets and Ollie have been the answer all along…
Do we really want to overpay for Perez?? I don’t want to see him long term with the Mets. Everyone knows during the season we don’t want to see him in a game, he mows down 10 in a row and then walk 3 and gives up a hit and a blast and we’re down 5. Save me the agony and if Perez is option B move on to option C. Why lock down a #4 pitcher, he’s only better than that a hand full of starts.
Depends on what you view as overpaying?
I think it’s reasonable to expect Ollie to pitch like a 3-4 starter for 4 years. If we’re lucky, more like a 3 bordering on a 2.
What exactly do you think those types of guys, who are 29-30 and lefty will be making in 2012 or 2013?
I’m gonna guess not less than what Ollie is about to get signed for. Not unless there’s a salary cap – which will probably not happen for a while, and definitely won’t happen until the next CBA is negotiated in 3 years.
Then again I think its ridiculous how much these guys get paid. We all throw numbers out there in the mil like its dollars. Then we make an argument that Santana is worth 22 mil…and Perez isn’t worth 12. I’m at fault too, its all fantasy baseball and gm for all of us. Bottomline is Mets fans deserve a championship and it better happen this year.
Matt, a long winded way of saying get SP depth (aka go 7 deep?)
Also, this “small makret” crap has gotten really tiring. They have a huge payroll (tops in the NL) already.
Since Omar took over, the team budget has gone from ~80m to ~140m in 4 years. Sounds “big market” to me.
They went out and signed Santana to (at the time) the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. Sounds big market too.
I think many people are missing the fact that the current roster, and payroll (largely due to Santana) ALREADY FACTORS IN THE NEW STADIUM.
To some extent, the ‘big splash” that was supposed to happen this off season happened last year. 2 unexpected things were:
- Santana became available (big contract)
- Delgado came back to life (I am sure Omar was counting on having him off the books).
So the posters that insist the Mets can/should have an unlimited budget are welcome to their view (although Omar obviously does have one), but calling them small market is nonsense.
Small market team never would have signed santana, would have let Delgado walk for nothing, and would have made Heilmann the closer instead of getting K Rod and Putz.
Correct. Pretty much everybody is “small market” compared to NYY. Even the RedSox claim they can’t keep up. Ask Pittsburgh or KC what small market is really like
Thank you for this excellent post stick. The small-market people on here drive me nuts.
Is it because they’re right?
The Mets do not spend like they should – and that not only includes player salaries, but in player development and paying over slot in draft to bring in young talent. The Red Sox may have a slightly lower payroll than the Mets, but they put WAY more resources into player development.
Arguably, the Red Sox are the best organization in baseball top to bottom. They use their vast resources on ML talent while developing a very good young nucleous. Theo always has 6 or 7 ML starters on hand because he knows that pitching is fragile. Omar, take note. Santana, Maine, Pelf, Ollie, Sheets and Redding. Even add Pedro and let Redding go long. This group cannot go the season without injury, but together they should be able to navigate 162
I think people are forgetting that jon Garland is good for 200+ innings a year and can win you 15 games. He is much more consistent then ollie and will prob save us money to spend else where.
Agree sometimes quantity is quality. These past years you can count on at least two pitchers to go down for some time.
Are you saying you would take Garland over Perez? Garland is not a 15 game win pitcher and he get hit a lot more then Perez does.
In the past four seasons, Garland’s reached 18 wins twice.
But W-L is a horrible measure of a pitcher anyway – you will never convince me that Garland’s ‘08 was better than his ‘07, or that his ‘06 was better than his ‘05, although his W-L would suggest that both were true, when every other stat says no.
The thing is, Garland’s going to pitch more innings and get blown out less often. He’s just going to dominate less often too.
Consistency is the key. You don’t pitch 200 innings in the AL and not be consistent. His era will drop a full point and the unknown will cause problems with hitters.
Ollie And Sheets makes the most sense. If Sheets is healthy, he starts and Redding is the long man in the bullpen. If Sheets is unhealthy we still have a solid staff and Sheets is on the DL list. If we can get Pedro on a minor league deal we do it, otherwise don’t do it (even though I like Pedro a lot).
As for Manny, Don’t do it. We don’t even know how Citi Field is going to play yet and it would be precipitous to get him with his waning fielding skills to put out there. Too many fans are mistaken the National League for the DH in the American Leauge.
To add to that great point (about getting Ollie and Sheet) if Sheets do show some promise then the Mets will have first crack at signing him next year. On the hand, if he not then they can let him go at the end of the season, if they can not pick up some minors before the trading dead line.
All the factors are there for the Mets to make all the necessary moves not just the financially reserved ones. They are moving into a new ball park. More money is available for them to spend. And after the last two seasons can they really take the cheap route as far as signing free agents? I don’t understand how the Mets don’t go nuts trying to accomplish this.
SANTANA
SHEETS
PEREZ
PELFREY
MAINE
NIESE/REDDING (insurance)
Very easily attainable rotation. I understand if getting Manny after that is a stretch but come on. If you don’t further fortify the whole roster then the bullpen moves were made in vain. I actually believe Omar will do something to satisfy the fans. But the longer he waits, the more I begin to worry.
Trade for Halliday… whomever ,,,,maine???+2/3 prosepects… sign pedro ,garland and manny
I’ve been struggling to understand why the Mets have shown so little interest in Garland. The only explanation I can think of is money.
He’s a total horse – you’ve got a very strong chance of getting 215 innings at just above league average out of him.
Compared to Wolf, who’s just total dreck. I’d rather see my mother-in-law pitching than Wolf.
In terms of career output, Garland has so far pitched better than Perez. Ollie’s clearly more talented though, and had a better year last year, but he still has never reached the 200 innings mark.
You could make an argument, then, that Garland is actually the best pitcher out there. Well, Sheets is if he can get through a season, but that’s a big ‘if’.
If the team really wanted to make a splash, and I don’t think the budget will allow this which is a drag, a rotation of Santana, Maine, Perez, Pelfrey, Garland would definitely be an above-average rotation – it’s lacking a clear #2, but it’s also lacking a clear #5, and in fact none of the four pitchers behind Santana would be overwhelmed by anyone else’s #3.
I agree but would go Sheets and Garland as you would actually gain a pick in this senerio and still have a spot in the future if Niese develops.
Exactly … lose a pick from signing Sheets … gain it back from letting Ollie walk.
Actually, we pick up a pick as Ollie would net us 2 picks. And no matter who signs him we would get a compensation pick in between the 1st and 2nd round. That’s a huge plus.
So we give up a 2nd rounder for Sheets but possibly get back a 1st and 1 1/2 pick.
There ya go!
I like it.
High ceiling, highish floor, and young – Sheets would be the oldest at 30. And yes, leaving a little flexibility by having Sheets on a one-year deal is not a bad idea.
The thing about this is, Perez NEVER gets hurt. He’s just like that for some reason. Why not guarantee those 30 or so starts?
From yesterdays baseball owners’ meeting..
Cubs cahirman Kenney on the yankees and a salry cap:
“And if you look at the reality there, they’ve got a $1.3 billion stadium coming online,” Kenney said. “They were probably relying on Wall Street to fill a lot of those seats. And they missed the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. So their reaction is probably similar to what I would do, which is, you’ve got to put a compelling product on the field when you open the doors of that new ballpark, and that’s what they did.”
WI guess the Wilpons don’t get it
Guys we could actually sign Sheets, Garland and Wiggy/Abreu for around 18-20 million. That would solve MOST of our problems and is very doable.
Another alternative for 20-22 million is Sheets, Odalis Perez and get Hudson AND Wiggy/Abreu.
Hudson may get a 1-2 year deal around 7 million. Wiggy 4-6 million and Abreu 8-10 million. Odaliz 3 million tops.
lots of permutation possible. Another reason the syteria about “omar failing” this off season are just a tad premature (although no more so than writing off the entire season becasue Lowe signed elsewhere!)
I’m now open to Abreu for 1 year. Even hudson, since it would force some resolution to the castillos issue.
ANd I can be persuaded about most any of the pitchers.
Sheets for the incentive deal? Check.. garland to back him up? OK, or Ollie. Even Odalis as the back end guy.
Just put 5 legit ML starters out there, with another couple viable options to back them up, and the team will be fine. Just stay away from the Limas of the world.
The posts about who started in 2006 were illuminating. I forgot just how bad, and beat up, the rotation was that year. And how much a strong pen can help you!
No team has 5 cy young candidates in the rotation.
Hey, Sheets must have read my posts from yesterday were I suggested a 5mill base salary and incentives for each GS over a certain number!
For 6m + incentives, they have to take a chance on him. Even if (as the dude from Dallas kept saying yesterday) he may not have his finger fully healed to start the season, if he is likely to be back for 2/3 of the year (say by June), then you still get your moneys worth.
Smoltz got that, and he is out until at least June or so, and maybe longer.
So, if they sign Ollie and Sheets, and nothing else, then Redding would hold down the 5 spot until Sheets came back. He would effectively be the big SP trade deadline acquisition!
Although if they do sign ollie/sheets, then I expect another SP to also come in, either a reclaimation project like Garcia, or maybe a younger guy via trade (who could also hit the pen).
Signing Sheets and Garland would be perfect. Skip the #5 spot to start the season and give Sheets more rest. Then if he still needs time Niese or Redding can take his starts.
I mentioned yesterday signing Sheets to a 1 year 8 million with 7 million in incentives and an option year at 15 million with a 2 million buyout. That would be a good contract for both sides and most likely the best he’s going to get this year.
We need someone to eat innings and keep us in games. Garland has only pitched in AL so his ERA might come down to high 3s or just at 4 in the NL and give us the 200 innings we desperately need.
One of our main problems last year was maine and perez not throwing enough innings when they did pitch (maine). That puts too much on the bullpen and over the long season, the bullpen is taxed and so we get what we got the last few years.
Maine and Pelfrey (too young) can’t be counted on to give 200 innings yet, so this is where Lowe would have been a great upgrade (exp, innings eater..)
Plus your idea on Sheets is right on. If he is rested and good to go, he turns into a solid #2.
I don’t fully agree with your thoughts on maine or pelfrey.
Pelf pitched 200 last year (or clsoe), and seemed fine. he is a horse with clean mechanics. No guarantee he will, but certailny reasonable.
maine’s biggest problem last year IMO was the shoulder. If the bone spur issue was resolved, and he is pitching without pain, look for a big rebound year, and hopefully getting back to a normal amount of innings.
What was his problem in 07 when he had a 6 era in the second half?
The guy clearly has stamina issues.
I disagree with Metsblog and agree with Wagner. I think you sign Ollie to the 4 yr contract. He is only 27 and his best years might be just be coming. He proved he has the stuff, he just needs to screw his head on straight every 5th day when he pitches. I would rather go with a guy I know and the problems he has than with an unknown commodity. Plus, Warthan (I think I speeled his name right) did more to help Perez last year than Peterson did so let’s give Ollie the chance. They say position players normally have their breakout year at age 27, maybe the same will happen for Ollie…
Wagner is an idiot. Don’t agree with Wagner.
Players rarely get less mature as they get older. I feel like Perez needs some mix between the rigidness of Peterson and the let him go philosophy of Warthen. Hopefully he enforces a little more regularity into Perez this year. Certainly let him throw some of what he wants to do, but make sure he sticks to a plan too.
Wow trade for Roy Halladay! If we got him our pitching staff would be t-i-t-s! Johan and Roy are the top two pitchers in baseball! Roy continues to shut down some of the best lineups too playing in that division. I’d puke if we made a move for him!
It would be filthy. I would even dangle FMart for a chance at Roy.
IF Maine were healthy then I would trade him and Parnell and Murphy in a package for Halladay. But with Maine injured I don’t think it gets done.
Yes I know we would still need another starter but then you just sign Garland and you are set or you could even go with Sheets.
Johan, Halladay, Pelfrey, Sheets/Garland, Redding/Niese is a very strong rotation. Yes it does not have the depth but how nice would it be to have 2 aces?
What do you do for a first baseman after next year if you deal Murphy?
LOL, you are not actually counting on Murphy to replace Delgado in the lineup are you? The only way that happens is IF we sign a really good corner OF or the Mets are idiots and go with Fmart and Murphy in 2010.
I get a very strong sense that they’ve already made that decision.
I don’t expect Muphy’s power numbers to be on par with Delgado. If he produces more than Delgado is really not relevant. Fact is that the Mets intend to let Delgado walk and replace him with Muphy. Who is going to be your first baseman? The best ones to hit the FA are LaRoche and Nick Johnson.
I wouldn’t mind them taking a shot at Pettite. He would at least bring the stability to the lineup that Matt is inferring.
I don’t agree at all with the “basket solution” ….however you decided to call the solution that..
So ok, we sign Sheets and one of Pedro, Garland, or Wolf…
Garland just got off a 3 year about 10M a year deal, so he will want CLOSE to that if possible… for a so-so pitcher, with close to a 5 ERA last year, granted, all his years are in the AL…
Pedro, who we don’t know what pedro we’d get or how often he’d be injured, and Wolf, who has pitched in the pitcher friendly NL West a lot, and isn’t really THAT good…
And the icing is that we only signed Sheets, who while I love the idea of having him, is bound to be on the DL a few times..
We are much better off signing Sheets + Ollie or Ollie + Big bat or sheets + big bat and forgetting about those other guys…. Redding can always be a solid #5 …but the idea of the “basket” doesn’t make a whole lotta sense to me
We talk about Perez like he’s a prospect. What he could be and what he might be instead if speaking about what he is. Listen guys we’ll sign him and then all scream: WE ARE WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS!!! I don’t know what might work here and thats why we want to trust Omar makes the right decisions but we have seen Perez these past few seasons and who are we kidding this guy will never be consistent enough to be a top pitcher.
problem is, there are very few guys who are consistent enough to be a top pitcher. And none of them are availabel as FAs (and I don’t count Lowe into that group either!)
I hear you. I will like to get Perez just to move on to other things we need on this club. But at the same time no one should be heart broken if he leaves. especially him being a Type A free agent.
That’s the same reason they gave on trading Nolan Ryan. While all agreed he had good stuff, they saw him as too wild, too inconsistent, would never be anything but. How did that work out for us?
Wow I know you’re not comparing Perez to Nolan Ryan but still but shouldn’t be mention or refer to in the same sentence.
Yeah, I didn’t mean to imply that comparison. Only the mindset of writing a pitcher off too young…
Thing is, Nolan had almost 4 years of semi-starts in the majors at the time of the trade. Ollie’s had almost 7 years of totally starting in the majors. Consistancy should have kicked in already.
I am on the fence about this. Part of me says that if we have the same rotation as last year (Minus Pedro plus Redding) we win the division with the pen improvements.
Part of me is also saying if we bring in Sheets and wolf we have more depth and protection from injuries with Redding and Niese waiting in the wing. Sheets can bemore dominant than Ollie, but we can only count on him for a half year. Not to mention it is very tempting to NOT have to committ to a 4 year deal with anyone and we can always make a move at Holladay in up comming off seasons. Two pitchers for thye price of Ollie or just a little more without the year committment has its merits. The only concern is thh sheets and wolf get injured (not out of the realm of possibility) Pelfrey has a sophmore slump and Main and Santana have a slow return form surgery. Then this does not look so good.
But I guess most of that can happen WITH Ollie on the team and is HE going to carry the rotation.
HMMM…..this is a tough one. I think i might be ok with either option. Both have their merits.
also, everyone keeps referring to Maine’s shoulder surgery, and i’m no doctor, but Maine’s shoulder surgery was to remove bone spurs, not repair a labrum, or something major. It was basically an annoyance, and doctors had told him last year he COULD NOT injure it more by pitching last year, but yes it did effect his pitching. He probably has a more likely come back to 2007 pitching from that than most pitchers who have any type of surgery.
This discussion/debate is getting tiresome. All remaining SP options have upsides and downsides. Just sign 1-2 of them, see what can be had to upgrade LF, announce a bunch of non-roster invitees and lets roll…
John Maine 2009 season will read something like 18-4 2.88 ERA lotta Ks. Ollie will be 11-8 with a 4.32
How exactly are you justifying that kind of expectation for Maine’s ‘09 season?
im basing it on that 1 hit 14 K performance 2 years ago.
Yeah, that was a beautiful performance to watch, but he needs to show he can consistently go deep into games, which he’s seemed to have trouble with. I love Maine as much as the next guy, but I don’t see him as a dominating pitcher yet. He’s got the potential, though.
that’s a whole lot of faith. He needs to prove he can miss bats and pitch deep, but I like the optimism!
I’m not sure from memory, but in 2007, Maine obviously got his 15 wins and 32GS, and 191 IP… didn’t he miss bats then? I mean, he wasn’t such a bullpen killer then from what I remember.
Possibly this whole “missing bats” thing was a product of the bone spurs
I think you might be overestimating Maine a bit. Maybe 3.89 with 13-14 wins is a bit more realistic….though I can hope that you are right.
I think the Mets need to sign Perez(I cannot believe I just typed that but we need another lefty starter for Philly) and Sheets. You could get them for what Lowe would have cost. You want to sign a Garland, Wolf, etc. and let them bump Redding into the long man spot or to AAA for insurance, thats fine by me. This team is a long way from catching the Phils and the road back starts with the rotation. I like Cerrone’s ideas. You need to build up depth so that the Nelson Figueroas and Brandon Knights of the world aren’t making important starts in a pennant race. Niese isn’t ready yet. Move on from that idea.
No, the Mets should NOT do that, Matt. I’m tired of this whole “overpaying” crap. Lowe WAS too expensive, I will agree. But to say we’d be overpaying for Ollie is baloney. If he was a free agent from another team Omar would already have him in a Mets jersey. I wouldn’t say no to Garland either, and Sheets is intriguing. But Omar is not going to get something for nothing this time around. We need a horse, not a picnic basket, and a right-handed bat as well. If this keeps up we’ll be missing the playoffs altogether, forget about the division.
Ollie is not a horse though. I like him, but how much money and how many years is too much to bring him back? What would be your limit?
Also, take into consideration the draft pick situation.
Matt, I’m glad you’re taking a stand here. I was thinking about Sheets as well, but was wondering if the Mets can get both Perez and Sheets. A rotation of Santana, Sheets, Perez, Maine and Pelfrey would be killer.
The thing that scares me is if the Mets do sign Ollie, I really think they’ll be “done” right there. I don’t think there is any chance of them signing another pitcher if they bring him back.
I think I’d rather have Sheets and another pitcher … and keep the draft picks that Ollie would get us by him leaving.
I like it….especially if the deal for Ollie is slightly back loaded to off set the potential cost of Sheets for one-year
I don’t think both is happening. it is either rotation mixta or Perez. One or the other.
You’re probably right Kalihan.
I’d actually rather have Ollie and Sheets over Manny.
I’d like to have any combination of the 3 but deep down I just know the Mets are not going to do that.
I really like the idea of signing Garland. I don’t know what kind of contract he’s hunting for, but he’s the best fit for this club. As some other posters have said, he’s reliable to keep you in the game most of the time and he’s good for 200+ innings, 30+ starts, and 6+ innings per start for the most part. He’d be the #4 starter on this team, so I don’t know what more you could ask for from that spot.
God everyone drink some water, you’re seeing a mirage.
Yes, Johan will be fine. But are you really willing to guarantee that both Maine and Pelf will pitch a combined 400+ innings we currently would need them to?
Redding right now would be a starter but we need to sign 2 more pitchers because we’re going to need him as insurance with the injury risk of what we have.
Plus I’d love Sheets for an incenteive-laden contract. With things like innings pitched, All Star Game, Cy Young and the World Series thrown in there. But we still need one more pitcher. I’d love it to be Ollie, but would I give him 4/60 he’s going to want? I’m not so sure. I’d be ok with instead signing the likes of the Wolf/Garland/Pedro/Garcia group, but if we’re saving that money, then we better be using it for some offensive help.
Sign Sheets first, that will drive ollie’s market value down, maybe even to the point that you can sign him cheap. if not fill in with pedro etc.
can you imagine if this frees up the cash to get Manny! wow, nothing would make me happier that watching him crush one ala puljos style off of Lidge at citizens bank park
why are we so friggin cheap?
I don’t think this is about being cheap. If you can get a potentially great pitcher like sheets for so cheap and back him up with a guy like wolf or garland and not have to committ to 4 years, we can wait until next year to bring in a better pitcher than Ollie. Long contracts are always risks of injuries or collapse. If you don’t have to take that risk and bloat the budget like you are the yankees with has beens because you locked people up for so long, you win.
their only cheap in the eyes of someone else wanting to spend their money!!!
although it is sooo much easier spending someone elses money…
If we sign sheets, I bet Boras has to crawl, tail b/w his legs, to the Mets to take Perez at 10/yr (and at that point he’s worth it as a #3)
Hey Matt…You’re welcome! This is exactly what I wrote yesterday under the Alex Cora story. This would be the way to go. Garland is much more consistent, and his ERA would improve in the NL.
Ben Sheets would be a steal at 6 mil with incentives, even if he only gives us 20-25 starts. The BP will be fresher in September…
I still wish they would get another solid stick though for Left….and then they can platoon Tatis and Church in right, until Church proves he’s 100% healthy and can hit lefty pitchers…
So when the mets don’t sign Ollie, and he matures this year as predicted, and contends for the cy young, wins 20 games with more K’s than IP and an ERA around 2.90 and a WHIP around 1.20. What are all you people going to say – since it happens in Dodger Blue instead of Met Blue and Orange?
It will be why was Wilpon so cheap not to sign hum at $13mil per? You will all freak out more than you do over Kazmir, and based on potential – Ollie is better than Kazmir. Kazmir has just put it together a little faster.
You watch – the Mets won’t sign Ollie, and by June everyone on this board will be raising he_ll and complaining that the team was cheap – when you all lobbied agaiunst the signing in the first place.
Ollie is one of my favorites but I don’t for a second think he’ll ever win a cy young or 20 games. As much as I like the guy … he’s got a million dollar arm and a 10 cent head. He’s just not cerebral enough to reach his full potential.
BTW – I am basing Ollies maturation on a few things. First he is 27 – still younger than Randy Johnson was when he matured from a walk machine to one of the best ever (not that Ollie will turn into that) and the fact that he got married this offseason. I don’t know about you, but my life changed dramatically when I got married – and it was all mindset.
That is possible but I just don’t think he’s got a high baseball IQ. The ones who are really great have a great mental approach, especially pitchers. Some hall of fame pitchers did what they did with lesser “stuff” just because they were more cerebral.
I just don’t think Ollie getting married or getting a little older will make him be able to use his brain better. He kind of is what he is.
I so agree with you gutter. Ollie is about to enter his prime. He has great stuff. He is, to me, part of the core of this group since 2006. He belongs with this group and is young and talented and clearly can deal with NY. And overall, he has been pretty to very good the last two years. And again, he is still young, is not an aging guy, is not injury prone, and is not fat and satisfied yet having made tens of millions and won a ring.
And getting married may indeed have gigantic positive effects on Ollie’s maturity and consistency.
Who’s predicting that Ollie blossoms this year, you?
2009 Projections from reputable sources:
Zips: ERA 4.83, ERA+ 89, Innings 164, W/L 9-10
CHONE: ERA 4.72, Innings 166, W/L 9-10
Marcel: ERA 4.22, Innings 175, W/L 10-9
James: ERA 4.53, Innings 204, W/L 11-12
Do you have any idea whatsoever how utterly meaningless these projections you cite are?
You’re kidding right? These are the most accurate projection systems available (aside from PECOTA which hasn’t been released yet). These are actually quite accurate, year in, year out.
Sorry but those predictions are bogus for a player like Ollie – and are also bogus for just about any pitcher outside of a pitcher who has been consistant for many years. For young players still on the upside they are always 100% meaningless. If they were so good then salaries would be based on them. If they were so good they would never need to play the games.
Also – for hitters they are probably pretty accurate as well. But again for people who have been in the league for 10+ years and are no longer improving.
Ollie will put it together and break out. The question is if it will be this year or the following.
No, of course I am not kidding. These projections can be right, wrong, or indifferent. They mean ZERO in terms of what Ollie will or will not do next year.
Ollie is a 27 year old with a checkered career, who has great stuff, who has the ability to pitch very well in NY, and, as another poster wisely pointed out, just got married, which could indeed affect his mental outlook tremendously. As could his first really huge contract.
I understand the whole sabermetrics thing, and I don’t use BA and W-L to judge players, but to propose that these projections have absolutely any meaning whatsoever in terms of what a 27-year-old pitcher with great stuff will do next year is just silly, and is the negative, over-the-top, side of sabermetrics.
In my opinion.
“Do you have any idea whatsoever how utterly meaningless these projections you cite are?”
LOL…these projections are certainly more accurate than you.
What kind of projections do you think these folks would have made for Randy Johnson at age 27? And how right would they have been?
Gutter said it much better than I did. Projections like this are so bogus for a 27 year old pitcher with such an up and down career.
They would have made better projections for Randy Johnson than Ollie. These are based on similarities going back to the minors and every level. You really need to look at how accurate they are.
At the age of 27 Randy Johnson was just finishing his second full year in the majors. Ollie has had 6.5 years in the majors. You guys really have to stop the “he’s young” stuff. He’s young if he’s 27 and only been in the league 2 to 3 years, not 6.5.
Now I’m not saying these prediction numbers are right but the guy was replying to someone who says Ollie will win 20 games with a sub 3 era and all this other stuff based on that he’s gotten married. I think I’d go with the prediction based on numbers than the one based on the married mind of a guy who throws sidearm and eephus pitches whenever he gets bored on the mound.
First of all Ollie is NO Kazmir. Second of all we should have traded Church Kunz and a prospect for Dye. Third of all we should be signing Sheets
Agree that Ollie is no Kazmir (although will last longer).
Agree with the trade.
Agree with Sheets signing.
I gotta disagree. Basball reference actually matches them as very similar. I would argue that Ollie will play for longer and be much better overall thanks to Kazmirs injuries.
Also baseball reference.com has the most similar pitcher to Ollie bu the end of Age 26 as besing Mark Langston. (by 25 was Frank Viola, 24 was Scott Olsen, 23 was Sandy Koufax, 22 was Scott Kazmir)
Sll some pretty good names. Since Langston is the most recent most similar lets see what he did after he was age 27: 4 All-star appearances, Many votes in the Cy Young (although never won it) Led the league in IP and K several times and was near the top in ERA – when although he pitched for 5 years before he was 26 he only showed promise. I am not saying that L:angston was a HOFer and I am not saying that Ollie is Langston – but their careers look pretty similar!
This is actually really good work. Thanks for the info.
by the way to clarify my projection post – I do believe in sabermetric projections most of the time – just not with an up and down youngster. Or any young player for that matter. The projections really only take into consideration the past – not potential or outside factors.
You make a fair point. I just don’t see Ollie settling down all of a sudden. It’s a fair argument though.
Randy Johnsons Walk totals by age:
25 – 96 BB
26 – 120 BB
27 – 152 BB
28 – 144 BB
When he was 28 he spent most of the offseason working with Nolan Ryan (you can look into archives and read articles about it) and that is when he turned the corner and turned into a monster.
Again, I am not saying that Ollie is Randy Johnson, but there are many similarities. In fact both Barry Bonds and Chipper Jones have some quotes comparing the 2 – take a look at the back of Ollies 2006 Topps traded card (the first with him in a mets uniform) and read the quote from Chipper:
“He’s the closest thing to Randy Johnson you’ll see,” Chipper Jones once said of Perez.
Some more Randy Johnson numbers by age:
Age * BB * WHIP *K/9 (not gonna use totals as pitchers were used differently 20 years ago)
24 – Only 4 Games
25 – 96 BB * 1.51 WHIP * 7.2 K/9
26 – 120 BB * 1.33 WHIP * 7.9K/9
27 – 152 BB * 1.505 WHIP * 10.2 K/9
28 – 144 BB * 1.41 WHIP * 10.31 K/9
29 – 99 BB * 1.11 WHIP * 10.85 K/9
30 – 72 BB * 1.18 WHIP * 10.6 K/9
Here is Ollie:
20 – 48 BB * 1.32 WHIP * 9.4 K/9
21 – 77 BB * 1.62 WHIP * 10.01 K/9
22 – 81 BB * 1.15 WHIP * 10.98 K/9
23 – 70 BB * 1.67 WHIP * 8.4 K/9
24 – 68 BB * 1.74 WHIP * 8.14 K/9
25 – 79 BB * 1.31 WHIP * 8.85 K/9
26 – 105 BB * 1.40 WHIP * 8.35 K/9
So no – Ollie does not really compare with Randy Johnson – as Ollie WHIP in 06/06 his 2 bad years are much worse that RJ’s, but really RJ was in the minors then.
But still there is at least a basic comparison there based on the quotes from Bonds and Jones (and others)
This is why the SABERmetric predictions hold no water in this case. If Ollie can have an event to mature him – he will be an All-Star and perennial Cy Young candidate. If he doesn’t mature he will be a just above league average pitcher, and a solid #3-4 guy with flashes of ACE/#2.
Maybe the Rangers should sign him and hive him work with Ryan like RJ did.
I am glad you arent the GM and just a blogger.
more uncertainty in the rotation after Maine? Can you sell me some of what you are smoking?
This is an atrociously irresponsible idea.
4/5 starter by committee would get Omar fired I hope.
I hope so too
are you responding to me? Ollie is just as big of a risk at sheets. The guy can go out there and not throw a strike just as easily as Sheets can get injured. And we have TIM REDDING to be our savior at #5.
I have a feeling that 300 mllion scam report earlier is actually affecting Mets budget….
yea, that must be why they didn’t overpay for Lowe and the rest of the free agents haven’t even signed yet…
yup, spot on!
agreed!
Agreed that the Madoff thing seems to be having an affect.
either one of you want to explain WHY you think that….
I think almost everyone agrees that lowe at 15M a year was too much, for a guaranteed 4 years… Last I checked, Perez, Sheets, Wolf, Manny, etc haven’t signed yet
Try using that argument in March, when we possibly report to spring training with holes….fair?
Fair.
Ollie is a true #4, we probably need him, but he’s not a #2, far from it.
Ollie is a #2 when hes throwing strikes, and a pretty solid one. Problem is every other inning he looks at 2 and no one out because he walked the first 2 batters. Cant pitch like that and be effective
That is why you sign Garland, a true #4 and Sheets a true #2 IF healthy for about the same price as Perez.
That’s a big ‘IF’. We’re taking the same chance with Sheets staying healthy as we are with Ollie being more consistent.
Pick your poison.
But you are adding a very soldi Garland to that mix. Where with Perez you are likely to get no other pitchers.
TRS,
The normal ones on here have been touting this since day one.
But we needed to sign CC, Tex, Burnett, Lowe and Manny.
If we don’t we’re a small market team, Not worthy of being in NY. And we’re destined to be in 3rd place.
Oh well i guess i shouldn’te even root for this team. It’s only a 3rd place team.
I mean i belive the entire decade of the 90’s they weren’t even close to 2nd. But now if we don’t overly spend money at the level of that other NY team… What’s the point.
The type of lame reasoning we’ve come to expect from you, Matthew.
Everyone makes it sound like the Mets are the only team in baseball cutting back their spending or at least sticking to a budget. In case you missed it, there is a horrid economy out there and while Shea will be filled up in 2009, there is no guarantee this will continue indefinitely. There is a budget in place and I will not kill ownership for not wanting to dole out lavish long term contracts for decent pitchers.
That being said, there is no reason not to up the ante for perez or thoroughly examine the possibily of bringing in Sheets in an incentive laden 1 year deal
Lastly, please don’t compare the Mets to the Yanks b/c I find it ridiculous that the Yanks can spend over $400 mln this offseason but are begging the city to fund an additonal 300 mln for the stadium.
Well Hubie,
1st off the stadium that will be filled will be Citi Field… i know probably just a slip because for a long time we have all said shea.
2nd the yankee’s are actually spending less then they did last year. I know it’s hard to believe, but they had over 90 million come off the books and only added about 66 million back on. That’s not including if they trade Nady or someone out of town.
I do agree with you about Perez and Sheets. I’d even be up for Perez and Garland. Or as Matt said Sheets and Garland…. Also if Sheets is up for that, Sheets and Perez would only cost a measly 4 million more then Lowe cost himself, in guaranteed money.
Hey Hubie—Just gotta say again that you were most definitely right, and that the economy has affected baseball much earlier than I thought it would.
And yeah, we are both in NY, but the Yanks have been outspending everyone and winning titles for over 80 years. It will take another few decades and a few more titles for the Mets to close the gap somewhat.
As much as I hate the Yankees, with what they had coming off the books – and what they spent – their payroll for this year is not that much different from last year. So even they didn’t spend like it was a bottomless pit. Although I don’t think for one NY second they would hesitate if that’s what they thought it would take…
NOT ONE SINGLE TEAM IN BASEBALL HAS ADDED PAYROLL ONTO LAST SEASON’S.
Not one. Not one single team. The yankees are spending 30 million less. They might actually be under the Luxury tax line for the first time in a decade (I think it’s 180 mil this year).
But the mes should add an additional 25 million for Manny to push them up to 170 million, or more and go over that luxury tax line for the first time ever.
Makes complete sense if you ask me!
mark, you are right that they aren’t spending “more” , but I believe they are still going to be over 200M, so near last year’s.
Still, NOONE has spent more
I agree, whether its on pitching or manny, there is definitely money that needs to be spent for 2009.
Yes, the Yanks did have money coming off the books, but they filled up the books quite lavishly for 5/6/7 years going out right now. Perhaps the YES network and other revenue streams make this a drop in the bucket, but the last I hard the Yanks could not sell remaining luxury boxes and you have to wonder how many corporations will renew those boxes next year at current prices.
I do agree the Mets can’t be cheap and must be willing to spend another $25 mln for 2009. There has to be some money in the coffers from the last few years and 2009 woill be very profitable They need to either pay Perez 4 years or agressively pursue a Sheets and Wolf/Garland/Pedro combo.
They are more than doubling ticket prices. The sob stories about the economy defending the Wilpons are mindboggling.
THEY ARE NOT DOUBLING TICKET PRICES!
Maybe they are doubling the premium seats, i’m not sure, but for the majority of what us “die hard” fans do….what used to be loge and “upper deck”, they are reasonable, heck, my tickets in the promenade are $5 cheaper on average per ticket.
This is one of those arguments that you need to research prior to attempting to use
QUESTION:\
1)Is it understood that Omar signed Redding with no intention of beginning the season with him in the rotation. In your eyes is Redding not in the rotation? I hope not. Have any of u seen a report stating this. That would mean I can still dream of two free agent SP’s, instead of one. Your opinions or insight please!!!!!!!!!
2)I would love Manny, but for all u guys who keep posting get Manny, don’t u think that after all the reports of the Mets lack of interest and article on how we r trying to get Nady or Swisher, tell you were out of the Manny sweepstakes? Do u really think we have a chance? I don’t, so I am mentally moving on, if we get him AWESOME, but if not Omar and his crew better figure out a way to improve this offense.
7Train,
1) Redding has said he will be given a chance to compete for the 5th rotation spot, and he has said he is open to pitching out of the bullpen. So it has to be as-sumed that the agreement he came to was 5th starter or long relief man… Which is how most fans are seeing him until the season starts.
2) It’s a futile argument to say stop saying Manny. there are about 40% of fans that think it’s Manny or we are a 3rd place team. I don’t know why they think this, as we finished 1st or 2nd the last 3 years, and both 2nd’s were 1 game out of first. But that’s what they think, so give up and just on’t concentrate on the Manny stuff… That’s what the rest of us has said.
40%? where did you run that poll?
I didn’t get it from anywhere but thin air.
Most fans here, like myself would love Manny and know it’s not a reality. Either because ownership wants nothing to do with him, or what he will cost we understand is out of the budget. We have read all the news, listened to Omar over and Over say it’s not happening. And have come to live with the Fact it’s not happening.
But I would say by the number of posts here that there are about 4 out of every 10 fans that think it’s Manny at any cost or bust. And those same Fan will call the mets cheap for not getting him.
Take out the word fan and replace it with post. 4/10 post on here are we need Manny at all cost. However, most of those post are made by about 4 posters.
OFF TOPIC – But did anybody read Christian Red’s interview with Beltran in today’s Daily News?
Beltran actually asked about Manny…doesn’t seem like he would mind having him out in LF next season.
I would love to see a better 2b prospect come up so we can move murph to 2b this year and then 1b next year…
In your perfect world here, who replaces Delgado’s offense next year if Murphy moves to 1B?
Who replaces it this year when he looks broken down again?
Omar said he wanted to start the season with 7-8 leget SP to compete. I hope he sticks with that plan. Lets face it, Johan is the only automatic. Pelf is young, Maine has health issues, Redding is OK for back end. And, we need to think about next year too.
With that, I agree with an earlier post…take the $ you would spend on Ollie and…
1. Sign Sheets to a 1yr incentive contract, trying to add an option year for big money based on games played
2. Sign Garland…lets get real, he is exactly what this rotation needs. He will take the rock every 5 days, go 6-7 strong, and be OK. We need more consistancy.
3.Sign Wiggy…RH multipositional player with power. Could play 1B or LF and compliment Murphy, and be a legit 2B starter when slappy gets hurt again or stinks it up.
*Reyes, murphy, wright, beltran, delgado, wiggy, murphy, church, schneid
*Johan, Sheets, Pelf, Maine, Garland
*Redding, green, felic,sanchez, putz, krod
————————-
also…I can see the Mets targeting a guy like Sanchez[he is nasty] and trying to land Molina, maybe swapping Church, Niese, Kunz, + Marte/Fmart.
I still dont know why we dont trade Delgado in a package for a SP and just sign Dunn. Does Omar not realize they are the same person, except Dunn can play OF[kinda] + hit 40 hrs???
Why is Millar not on the Mets yet? Do we not need a scrappy leader that can still hit + play 1b/COF???
Am I missing something?
NICE!!! I’m right with you..
I’ve been touting Garland since day one. Have gotten killed over and over because of it.
I would still like Ollie, but sheets wouldn’t mind either. I think your giving way way way too much up for Sanchez. He’s a 26 year old lefty with 1 year experience and it wasn’t anything more then a worse up and down the Perez… Church and Kunz would be more then enough, and i think Evans and Kunz would be enough or too much. I doubt they throw in molina, because with their rotation they believe they can compete this year, and molina would be a big part of that. The West is awful so i can see why they think that.
Millar would be a great fit. But i don’t know how if they sign him Murphy is a part of the major league roster. You will have 12 pitchers you have. Reyes, Wright, Castillo(UGH) Delgado, Schneider, Castro, Cora, Beltran, Church, Murphy/Tatis. That leaves one position left. Maybe that is Millar. If your throwing in Wiggy no place on the roster for Murphy then at all.
Anyways. I want 2 of these… Perez/Garland/Sheets. I want no part of Wolf. He stinks and is hurt as much if not more then sheets and isn’t nearly as good when healthy. And i would like dunn.
Yesterday i laid out how you could get perez and sheets. Or perez, garland, and dunn. With the new news that that sheet is willing to go heavily incentive laden for a year…. you can now do perez, sheets and dunn.
If we get Perez, Sheets, and Dunn I’ll be ecstatic. It is reasonable too.
Somebody explain to me why the Mets should get hung up on the draft pick issue vs. getting Ben Sheets to back up Johan. This is so stupid.
Given the status of the current rotation, and the fact that this team blew up the last two years, they should get every pitcher they can find……forget Perez…….get Sheets, Wolf and Garland, put Maine in the bullpen as the long guy until he can prove he is 100%…….
Come on Jeff and Omar……you want to win, don’t you ?…………stop messing around, and get the pitching straightened out with enough bodies to have a fallback when someone goes down……and fix the lineup once and for all by bringing Manny in here…..you know Delgado isn’t going to do it again……you already have black holes in the lineup at 2B, C, and P……you can’t win anything with only 3 bats in the lineup…….
putting maine in the bullpen is a horribly dumb idea, he’ll show us in spring training if hes ready or not, and they are better off starting him on the DL, then rehabbing through the minors if hes not.
I’m not going to get into an argument about this, but consider this……..what if is he only partially ready…..not ready to pitch 7 innings every time……but also not hurt enough to be on the DL…..what if he just needs to get up to speed slowly ?…….remember last year…..Maine wanted to be in the bullpen…..just to be with the team….
Frankly after the last two years, I’d rather have 6 or 7 starters than just 5 and then have to scrape the bottom of the barrel when somebody has a problem……..
fxcarden,
He wants to be a starter, when he said he just wanted to help the team, it wasn’t because he WANTS to be in the bullpen, he has said he doesn’t want to be in the bullpen.
Duaner Sanchez last year was able to start on the DL/extended spring training, when technically he was ok to pitch, as he did pitch in games. Maine would be able to as well.
also meant to say, at that time of the year, he knew the mets had NO help in the bullpen and he figured he couldn’t be worse
If he’s not healthy enough to start, he’s hurt enough for the DL. They’re not at all strict about the DL, if you get a splinter in your a$$ from warming pine they’ll let you go on the DL.
I’d much rather have him on the DL a couple of starts than come out of the bullpen, really hurt himself and be done for the season.
Last year it was near the end of the year – there was much less to lose. Plus the bullpen was in freefall.
All I know is that with multiple question marks in the rotation and the lineup it won’t matter how good the bullpen might be…..2009 will just be another year when things “went wrong”…..
…just one more…..
Maine is 33-27 with a 4.18 ERA lifetime….he is a good pitcher with potential, but he isn’t exactly proven…….neither is Perez who probably has more upside if he can ever get his head right……by getting proven guys like Sheets / Garland etc…..even if we don’t get 30 starts out of them………the Mets can only increase their chances…..this is a team built to win now…..not 3 years from now….. I can’t take another 3 years of this……Maine can be the stud 3 years from now……
100% agree with the post. Even if you only get 25 starts from Sheets, his numbers speak for themself. And if you get the right 25 starts, you have hit the jackpot. To me, Sheets and Burnett are of equal risk and I would take the bet now that Sheets has a better year than Burnett. Combine that with the insurance of either a Garland/Wolf/Pedro and the Mets need to win with quantity of starting pitching and not putting all their eggs in one basket with a guy like Perez. 4 for $48m for Perez is a death sentence.
I think an incentive-laden one-year deal for Sheets is just the thing.
If you sign Sheets – who’s an innings risk – you almost have to sign Garland rather than Martinez or Wolf. We all know about Martinez fragility, and Wolf started more than 23 games for the first time in 5 years last year. Same with Redding – up until last year he hadn’t started more than 17 games since 2003, and he’s only started 30 games or more twice since 2001. He also missed a full season.
After Santana, you have no one you can take to the bank to throw 180-200 innings in this rotation. Pelfrey’s an unknown, since he’s only going into his second full season after being extended in his first, and Maine, who has only pitched 190 innings once, is coming off surgery.
You need innings from your starters. If you’re not going to sign Perez, you almost have to sign Garland – otherwise your bullpen is going to be dead by August…
completely agree with Matt’s post….Perez is a risk, at $12M over 4 years it would take a brave man to make that bet.
Better to take that cash and bring in 2 lower risk pitchers, hopefully one of them will work well. If both work well you look like a genius.
I really can’t agree in theory….the idea that you collect a bunch of starters that you have no expectation of being able to rely on all season is counter-intuitive.
I’d sign Perez and lock down my front 4. I’d sign Sheets and let him have the 5 spot when healthy, with Redding and Niese as insurance.
You are forgetting Maine and Santana are coming off surgeries, and Pelfrey is still establishing himself. You need at least one other guy who you can guarantee for 35 starts…because all these “basket guys” could end up needing to fill 2-3 spots at a time, and then you are in trouble.
Dave -
I agree with your post entirely.
I don’t think people give Ollie enough credit. There’s something to be said when an organization rewards a talented left-handed pitcher from the minor leagues and he responds with a 27 – 15 record over a two-year period entering his prime. AND he’s a big-game pitcher who is absolutely lethal to your chief rival. Its important that his teammates, manager and GM want him back, too.
Signing Ollie is a good karma thing. I think he’d run through a brick wall for the organization that restored his career and then rewarded him for his performance and future potential. And if we could re-acquire Nady, the person we traded to obtain Ollie, then Omar would become the next Bodhisattva. :)
I also think that bringing Ben Sheets aboard is an excellent move. Treat him as a fifth starter and make that his arm gets enough rest after 3 or 4 starts. If he needs a break, then let Redding come in off long relief and open up the throttle for a start or two.
If Sheets goes down, then Niese, Redding and Parnell can have a mid-season competiton. The important concept here is that we have an incremental default response to the fifth starter position, one which ranges from ace talent in Sheets to an experience arm in Redding to a budding talent in Niese and Parnell. It bespeaks a healthy organization approach.
good plan and well presented.
But if you really want to hammer home your point, put it in all caps.
J/K here. About the caps part…
I like most of your points, but good karma? I hope to he-ll Omar makes no decisions based on karma.
I’d try to sign Ben Sheets if for no other reason that to reverse the tables on Scott Boras. If the Mets can sign him with a a Brad Penny and John Smoltz type deal (say $5 million plus $3 or $4 million in bonus incentives for a year or two, possibly wioth an option, they should go for it. If they can get Perez as well, then do that too.
Last week’s talk focused around Lowe and Perez together. Why not Perez and Sheets together!
Hey Matt, how about writing a post about this?
Opinion: The Manny Solution
One of the Many arms Omar should sign is Rich Hill.
The Chicago Tribune reports that Felix Pie, Rich Hill and Ronny Cedeno are each out of minor league options and “all three figure to be with different teams by the end of spring training.”
He’s turning 29. Is a lefty. And 2 years ago was one of the Cubs best pitchers going 11-8, with a 3.92 ERA and 183k in 195 innings.
Last season Lou had no patience for him and sent him to the minors after 5 starts. Then he mysteriously ended up on the DL.
—————————————————
This kid has some nasty stuff. Is a left hander. Is 6′5 205, and will cost nothing.
Hill woud be a great get, if he really is aqvailable. May get traded as oppsoed to DFA’d.
Also points out that there is a lot of off season left, and lots of teams need to make moves. So Omar is probably not close to being done.
Lowe and the other 2-3 FAs aren’t the entire pool of players available to upgrade the Mets.
If he’s going to be traded, He should cost that much. Because then he would be DFA’d. I can’t see why he wouldn’t cost 1-2 low level prospects.
totally agree.. but we also need ben sheets… and maybe garland to complete our arsenal of pitchers to enter 2009.. we are obviously not signing manny (after the signing of alex cora)so let’s just spend the money on pitching… pitching, pitching pitching…
Alex totally agree.
I have said Ollie and Garland all off-season. And i wouldn’t touch Ollie at more then 12 mil per. I said yesterday I’d go as high as 4 years 50 million which averages 12.5. (so he beats Silva’s ridiculous offer). Then you can sign Garland to a 3-4 year deal as well. This provides stability in your rotation for years, as Ollie is 27 and Garland is 29. This pushes Redding into the bullpen. If you back-load those contracts like most teams will, giving slight raises every season, you would still be left under the supposed 20mil budget with about 4 million dollars. I could see the mets going slightly over budget if it helps the team, where I could see them adding an OFer (Dunn is my preference) or possibly Hudson for about 4-10 mil a season.
since we got alex cora i highly doubt we will sign hudson, i can see dunn or abreu in left maybe.. but i think our focus entering this offseason was pitching.. bullpen and starting pitching.. if u see the rest of the moves have been minors like cora, signing tatis.. either that or omar has been inept at signing anybody…
Em… we’d probably need to TRADE them something for him… I’m pretty sure that a controllable arm like that would draw a few offers from frugally-minded NL teams. (Unless they fumble BADLY, the Cubs are not just waiving a 29-year-old lefty, regardless of how far he’s fallen out of favor with Lou.)
Is Pettite a option for a short term deal maybe a year or two. I just don’t agree banking on Perez long term if he’s going to rob the bank.
He is going to be just as expensive, and is probably no more of a guarantee (and has injury concerns).
Wrong #46. No thanks.
if you could replace luis castillo or add a corner outfield bat or replace brian schneider, which would you do? i would get rid of schneider, he is awful, unless the outfield bat is manny.
It depends on who you are talking about in the LF spot. If it’s Rameriz, then I can live with the other two. If it’s not Rameriz, then I don’t know if they can take that type of glaring hole at those positions.
I mean if Manuel puts Castillo in the 2 hole in the lineup and he does almost nothing then that’s a problem because if Reyes goes in a slump there will be no one on for Beltran/Wright.
I have seen so many peoples opinions on what they think Oliver Perez is going to be. Some say he’ll be more focused and some think he’ll just keep frustrating Met fans. My concern is with Maine, if Maine can’t go more than 5 innings, Mets are in trouble, especially with the injuries Maine has suffered.
Perez is not worth more than a 4/40 contract in my opinion. As a thrown in, I didn’t mind it that much, I thought Perez was a good pickup to be a middle of the rotation starter while not getting paid that much and not much was expected of him.
I want Perez but I am hoping at a lower asking price. Mets need to fill in what Maine may or may not give you. I think signing Sheets or Pettitte should be a must instead of a “we may we may not thing.” Mets need someone that show the other starters (Maine/Pelfrey) how to pitch like an ace and gut it out by going deep into games and learn how to pitch when you don’t have good stuff that day. I think Sheets or Pettitte will offer that. Slot them behind Santana and that’s a good 1 – 2 punch there.
INJURY maine has suffered, not plural…its one
I’m getting kind of sick of people acting like Maine had tommy john surgery or something.
Wagner thinks Ollie could win a Cy Young? Is he on crack?
Wagner is being generous after what he said about Oliver Perez last year I guess.
i think he can too.. his stuff is electric.. when he’s on he trhows 95mph with a nasty sharp slider.. but when he’s not he walks the whole stadium, and that’s always been the issue wit him.. so there fore most mets fans are tired wit him and his “which ollie will show up today” notion..
That’s what Wagner said.
He can win the Cy young. His problem is you don’t know which will show up.
Which is exactly true. But for as “Bad” as Ollie was last year he had 13 starts where he gave up over 4 ER. He gave up 7 – 3 times. 6 – 2 times. 5 – 4 times. and 4 – 4 times. He gave up 3 – 4 times. So in half his starts he gave up less then 3 runs.
Only 5 times he failed to go 5 innings all season. 22 times he went 6+ innings. The remaining 7 times he went 5-6 innings.
Overall he wasn’t awful, and about half the season he pitched like an Ace.
Derek Lowe had his share of clunkers as well. 8 times he allowed more then 4 ER’s in a game and an additional 3 times he gave up 3. 21 times he allowed fewer then 3. The big difference he only pitched fewer then 5 innings 2 times. he also went more then 6 22 times.
If Cliff Lee could go from his 2007 season to a 2008 Cy Young, anyone (with that kind of stuff) can.
And Ollie has that kind of stuff. Baseball history is littered with guys for whom it all just came together at some point….many of whom when they were older than Ollie.
What’s Wagner smoking?
Ollie’s 2004 season (30 GS, 2.98 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 239 K, K/BB of 3ish, 145 ERA+), which, had it not been for a 72-win Pittsburgh team– he only tallied 12 wins despite 24 quality starts– might have notched him a Cy at 22 (over Clemens, Johnson and Sheets).
(See also: first 2/3 of 2007.)
the major thing is this. due to the fact that the mets “collapsed” the past 2 yrs, an overhaul is and was needed. that was already done in the pen, now it needs to be done in the rotation. bringing pack pedro and perez is the same rotation..we need new faces in this clubhouse. besides that we NEED SHEETS. yes he is injury prone, yes he is a risk, but injury and all last year he still pitched 200 innings. and in the past 4 yrs has pitched more innings than perez. give him a one yr deal with major incentives, and sign wolf as your other lefty..after that is said and done..honestly if the mets really really want to do what most of us think NEEDS and MUST be done….sign Manny,
moral of the story…
1) sign sheets
2) sign wolf
3 sign manny
Sign Sheets and Sign Wolf and by mid season the rotation looks like
Johan, Maine, Pelf, Redding Neise.
No thanks. Rather Ollie and Garland. Sheets and Garland. Ollie and Sheets. Anyone but Wolf.
I agree about Wolf. Only if they sign a guy like garland, and get Wolf sheap and short term.
But the rotation, aside from Maine getting hurt, was not the problem. You don’t overhaul for the sake of overhauling.
Those blown lead statistics are not only indicative of a horrific bullpen, but of an offense and a starting rotation that delivered more than enough potential wins to it to have run away with this division. I think the mental effect of seeing Aaron Heilman trotting out of the pen again cannot be compared with that of seeing Ollie Perez toeing the rubber.
as of right now, our bullpen is better, our rotation has diminished and our lineup is the same people and by all logic should take a step back. so basically we are worse than we were last year when we didnt make the playoffs. I agree with matt, SIGN SHEET, SIGN GARLAND……and SIGN MANNY!!!!! or dunn
What logic has the Mets offense taking a step back?
The logic of the mannyites?
I think the most logical projection is an offense that’s about the same as last year.
You think Delgado is going to hit 35+ homers next season? I don’t.
I never said that.
Wright and Reyes still have upside and could be expected to improve.
A year of Church could be an upgrade as well.
Result? A wash with last year’s offense.
The key to last years offense was Delgado’s production. His strong 2nd half transformed the offense into what it was. His weak first half made the lineup look average.
If Delgado takes a step back, which he likely will, this offense will take a step back with him.
That makes no sense.
If Delgado takes a step back, but any two of Wright, Beltran or Reyes have a better year and either there is more production in LF or RF than last year, then I think you might even expect the offense to be better this year.
It also depends how much of a step back Delgado takes.
It makes plenty of sense. Guys like Wright, Beltran and Reyes have better numbers when a guy like Delgado is mashing behind them.
You already saw it first hand, when Delgado was stinking it up.
Delgado had stinky numbers in 2007, yet Beltran and Wright still hit exceptionally well.
Beltran and Wright did what they do in 07. Look at 06 … when Delgado was Delgado that year … for the whole year. Look at that offense as a whole.
mikey … Mets scored a lot more runs in the first half than the second half last season. So it’s apparent that they got the job done offensively regardless of a hot second half Delgado.
Exactly, Beltran and Wright will hit regardless. They do what they do.
I think in 2006 Delgado was more emotional support for Beltran who had a rocky first year with the fans in 2005.
You are a cherry picker.
… so are you!
I’m well aware that VCarver picks cherries.
Thanks.
mikey … you pick cherries and eggs. Rotten ones.
LOL … at least I’m not BLIND!
Who said you aren’t blind?
You pick ‘em by the smell! ; P
hahaha … good one.
Why not? If you look at Delgado’s career, 2007 is the aberration, not 2008. and he’s not as old as people like to think of him…guy is in tip top shape.
vcarver:
are you serious?? so u think we will be the same as last year?? RF is a question mark, LF you don’t know what u will get out of them, 2B stinks, C will only hit 250 and 1B u hope,no no… PRAY it has at best a decent season.. so.. u got 5 question marks pretty much in 8 positions.. how is that not a reason to be concern..?
Alex, you know all those question marks you mentioned …. well they had them last year too. And still, they scored the second most runs in the NL.
The question was not whether or not they have a perfect offense. But whether or not you would expect them to decline. I think on balance they would be expected to be about the same.
no they didn’t!!
they were hoping delgado bounced back, but we enter the 2008 with alou as our lf and church set up as our rf.. we didn’t think or know luis castillo was gonna stink, and from catcher we weren’t hoping much, until we saw what we got.. now is a much different story..
Yes, they did!
All year last year, 2B, LF, and catcher were big question marks in terms of offense.
RF quickly became one as well.
Delgado didn’t even hit till the 2nd half.
They had as many question marks if not more last year.
u know how many runs we score becoz of reyes in the first innings?? vcarver, our offense got better as the season went on, but this team can’t hit in the clutch!!
And your point being. Last season the RF was worse off then this year. As there was no replacement for Alou until Tatis and Murphy came out of nowhere. Lf was a complete mess as well while Church was hurt almost all year.
2nd base got nothing all season. And Catcher got nothing all season.
Ok so Delgado hits 30 HR. A down grade of 5. You don’t think a nice platoon in RF, a healthy 120+ games from church. Reyes, Wright, and Beltran can’t make that up?
Wow talk about pessimistic. You must listen to Mike Francesca a ton.
mark, i don’t at all.. but we have to also be realistic here.. if it wasn’t for delgado resurgence we would’ve been out of the playoffs by auagust.. and in 2b easly did good for us last year until he got hurt late, and u and i know we were lucky enough that we found murphy and that tatis came trough, if it wasn’t for that where we would have been by august?? come on man.. be realistic.. don’t forget delgado had 24 hr’s and 87 rbi’s in 2007, and it didn’t matter that much coz towards the end alou hit like 400!!! i got confident in beltran, wright and #7 but not in delgado or anybody els for that matter..
Reyes, Wright and Beltran are dependent on a strong cleanup hitter protecting them. They suffer when they don’t have that protection. That is the type of players they are.
It already happened, when Delgado grounded out to 2nd base for almost a year. See what you want, what do you want me to tell you.
Delgado was stinky in 2007, yet Wright and Beltran had very good years then.
Beltran and Wright did what they do in 07. Look at 06 … when Delgado was Delgado that year … for the whole year. Look at that offense as a whole.
i’m optimistic but i tell you, i’m also concern that we may have good pitching but no offense.. i see a lot of 4-3 games for us this year..
Exactly, Beltran and Wright will hit regardless. They do what they do.
I think in 2006 Delgado served as more of an emotional support for Beltran who had a rocky first year with the fans in 2005.
Oh alex,
Don’t get me wrong. I want to add another bat. And a big one in Adam Dunn. And i don’t have visions of the mets blowing people out of the water offensively.
But Last season the Mets were tied for 2nd with the Phillies for total runs scored in the NL. 2007 the mets were 4th in the NL Behind Atlanta, Colorado and Philly. 2006 the Mets were 3rd in the NL behing Atlanta and Philly.
I don’t have visions of them being #1. I do think they will continue to be in the top 5 if they don’t add a single Bat to the line-up. They will score enough runs.
I Guess overall i’m of the small group of fans that once the off-season is over and 100% happy heading into the season all things considered. This is taking into account that they fill out the rotation. It could be horrible and i could be pissed.
Would i have made 100 different moves. Like Trading Delgado. Dumping Castillo. Signing Dunn another OFer. Putting Murphy at 2nd.
100%. But It’s not happening. It’s not going to happen. So What can you do. This is pretty much the team going into the season. A team that has fallen 1 game Shy 2 years in a row. They can Compete, and with 2 SP they could dominate.
ok, i rather hope ur right by august than i’m right in april..
that was my exact thinking yesterday…….knowing that the mets didn’t want to overpay for perez.
i definitely think it would be much better to sign sheets/garland & you could also sign freddie garcia to a minor league contract and have even better protection…….especially if you have redding already in the fold.
hopefully that will make it possible to add a bat also.
Steviefan84, we already have an ace, the best in fact, in Johan to tutor Maine and Pelfrey. However, I would love to see Sheets on board as well! We really need someone of that caliber after Johan. If we bring in Sheets we’d have Niese and Redding to maybe alternate the 5th spot and also supply back up for Maine and Sheets when they need a rest as we know they will.
METS CAN’T SIGN TOBY HALL TO A MINOR LEAGUE DEAL!!! AND YES, I’M THIS MAD OVER IT, AND NO I’M NOT BEING SARCASTIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What the heck are u talkin’ ’bout?
With all due respect to Mr.Cerrone,this is
one of the dumbest things I’ve read on this
wonderful site. As I posted atleast 3 times
yesterday,simply go to the mlb site or that of
the dallas morning news.Sheets has rec’d
NO interest f/anyone but the Rangers.Why?
b/c he is still recovering f/a torn flexor tendon
in his pitching elbow,has been on the DL 7
times the last 7 seasons AND in the last 4 has averaged 150IP per.Wolf?,this is a guy
whos been even more injury prone on even
when healthy has been nothing more than
a back of the rotation guy.Now I didnt think
Ollie was ever gonna be a Met once he declared for FA BUT with Lowe now gone
and no other frontline SP really available
through trade,where do we go?
Obviously the Wilpons wont let Omar chase
Manny and its starting to appear there will be
more help coming re:Our corner OF situation
So,the offense will be what it will w/the guys
we have.And Mr.Cerrone and many of you think it would be an acceptible/good idea
to bring in the likes of a Sheets and/or Wolf?
Havn’t we and Mgmt already been down this
road time and again?
The above should have read–No more help.
If sheets is willing to sign a 1-year $6 mill contract with heavy incentives I would jump on that in an instant, provided his medical report indicates what he had is fixable with rest.
If he goes to someplace else that cheaply and has a great year I will skewer Omar.
yeah ok.. he will be STUPID if he does that when smotlz sign for 8mill..
Smoltz signed for about $5 mill with heavy incentives.
i meant 5.. sorry mistypo.. but u get the point.. smoltz might not even pitch the first 2 months..
LOL, what is your point?
Sheets couldn’t even pitch in the playoffs he was so hurt.
Maybe you should hold off on crushing Omar
over Sheets until we actually see him pitch
this season.
ur right.. i wont say sing sheets for a while.. is funny how now everybody is jumping on that band wagon after lowe went to atlanta.. wonder why?? it seems most of us rather have a good but often injury sheets than never hurt but ALWAYS inciosistant perez..
SIGN SHEETS.. TYPO.. sorry.
My post said exactly that. It was conditional.
If you are going to sign Ollie, then signing Sheets now will take the pressure off and maybe save some bucks for the cheap met ownership. Please don’t tell me that the Madoff fiasco is not affecting the Mets operations. IT HAS TO!
Do you think the Wilpon’s run the Mets using a wad of cash under their mattress?
Do you understand the difference between operating costs and revenues for a corporation, which the Mets are, and the Wilpon’s personal paper wealth?
People act like the $300MM they lost to Madoff was stuffed in an envelope that said “free-agent funds” on the front.
If anything is affecting the Mets thinking, it would be uncertainty around that $20MM naming rights fee that is supposed to be coming from CitiGroup…all of which is REVENUE for the METS and not the Wilpon’s personal money.
You are very naive. Wilpon’s personal wealth is mainly derived from his baseball ownership. When you take a $300M hit to your account- it affects EVERYTHING you do. Grow up and get an understanding of how the real world operates.
PS: I have even heard that the Wilpons are quietly shopping the sale of the NY Mets because of their Madoff losses- contrary to what they are saying publicly. One can only hope (dream).
Isn’t going with Ollie also going with the “Basket” solution?
(Apologies if this joke has been used prior)
Yes, we do have an ace but as we saw last season, Santana can’t do it alone. You need that fringe guy, a #2 guy that is slowly slipping to a #3 that gets by on grit and guts. I think Pettitte and Sheets both have that.
We have one if not the best pitcher in Santana that makes everything look easy but I’m talking about a guy that knows how it is on the other side of the coin. Whether it’s a injury history and how to work through it, when you have a bad year, how to pitch when your stuff declines and stuff like that.
I think the Mets need that type of guy behind Santana to help stabilize the rotation.
we shouldn’t be concerned with losing a draft pick because we will get that pick back when someone signs perez……….he is also a type “a” free agent who we offered arbitration……….it’s possible that we end up with a better pick than we will give up if ollie were to sign with someone like texas.
Well what we shouldn’t worry about is that because we already gave our #1 to LAA for K-Rod, I do believe Sheets compensation would drop to a #2 (further screwing the Brewers who only got a #2 for Sabathia for the same reason).
…or am i wrong….did they not offer K-Rod arbitration? I could swear they did…
Yes, they did.
Has anyone read the rickey henderson interview where he says he can steal just as many bases as jose reyes right now?
Is it a joke?
maybe he can.. he just won’t get the chance too.. man.. he was a beast at his prime.. the best and most complete player i’ve seen as a leadoff hitter.. patient, speed, power, great defense, hit for average.. wow.. i am glad i saw this man play..
How can you not love Ricky! He’s priceless. As confident of a man as I’ve ever seen. Did any of you see what he said on Hot Stove?
He believes with out a doubt, that he would of been a better NFL player than OJ Simpson. Brilliant
If Sheets is willing to sign a one year deal with only 6 mill guaranteed, then I cannot believe he is not an acceptable risk.
When we are giving 2 mill to Alex Cora, 6 mill guaranteed (with perhaps another 8-10 in incentives) would be worth doing for a potential ace pitcher. Who cares how much the incentives are worth if he actually reaches them.
And forget about the draft pick. They already lost their top pick for K-Rod anyway.
well said, if its incentive heavy, and he hits whatever those numbers are, then its a no brainer, bc you now have another ACE!!! If he doesnt hit them, and you only spent 6million, then you can live with it…..Forget where in the rotation he pitches, to have Johan AND Sheets gives us 2 of the best in the game, hands down…
Dude turned down arbitration– w/ a likely 13-14 million dollar, 1 yr payday– so he’s not going to take a one-year deal for markedly less than that; we’ll either need to pony up more cash, or (more likely) at least one more guaranteed year, with some easily-reached vesting options. (His options may not be Burnett-y, but he’s been in talks with both Houston and Texas.)
have some faith in Delgado would ya! he’s a Hall of Famer and he’ll have a helluva year again this year. how about a little optimism for the offense!
A*s*s*uming that sheets’ medical records and/or physical, show that he is in fact healthy enough to pitch, I totally like Matt’s thinking on this one…how can you not??? If Ollie is gonna wind up getting 13 or so per year for like 4 yrs??? Sheets on an incentive heavy deal, AND a Wolf, or Garland??? Come on….then you have redding as #6/or long man, and you have niese in buffalo, honing his secondary pitches….IF we get the healthy sheets, (even if its for only 25 starts) they are 25 ACE level starts….
I think this is a great idea, and hope they look into how feasible it is as an option….
I could maybe back the basket approach to fill out the rest of the Mets bullpen, but for a starting rotation with so many question marks that is insanity. I’ve never been a proponent of trading F-Mart, but if you want to trade him for Halladay and then sign Manny count me in.
GOTTA GET SHEETS!
For what??–The DL??
If Sheet’s arm was hanging by one string, I’d still trust him more than that nutcase Oliver Perez..
Why??What exactly has he done in his career
to garner more trust than Ollie??
Stay healthy?-Win in a big spot?
Hey, let’s see how far to the right the comments go if we keep replying to this.
HE’S BETTER THAN OLLIE WHEN HEALTHY.. in less starts last year he had the same amount of quality starts and MORE INNINGS!!! how can you explain that!!
That idea was really
sanchez + molina for church, kunz, marte, + niese
If that were to actually happen, I sign Wiggy, Dunn, Milar, + Sheets immedietly and trade Delgado in a package for a near MLB SP.
Thats very little money spent, and locking a a very solid veteran roster for this year with stellar pitching for next year.
We would win with:
*reyes-ss, murphy-LF, wright-3b, beltran-cf, dunn-1b, molina-c, wiggy-2b, tatis/-rf
[balance, high obp +SLG]
B-Milar, schneid, pagan, cora, castillo
*Johan, Sheets, Pelf, J Sanchez, Maine
[thats a ton of K's]
*redding, sanchez, felic, stokes, green, putz, krod
Oddly enough, I think adding a guy like wiggy goes a long way as we always have an injury issue everywhere but SS + 3b[thank God]…and he can start at COF, 1B, + 2B…and hit for power. And, I do start Tatis + murphy in COF knowing we have power from wiggy, dunn, + molina in the IF with Pagan, Cora, + milar to fillin as needed, with Fmart waiting in the wings. Obviously, Manny is the realy answer, but its just not happening
We also have to look at the stats Garland has walked 59 players in 2008 while Perez walked 105. Although Perez had double the amount of strike outs at 180, I still like the guy who walk less players.
Garland also gives up a ton of hits AND
whats worse is he allows them to score.
and ollie walks them till he is pull out of the game..
at about the 5th inning right?
Garland is not the “sexy” pick here. We need to land a sheets, perez, or sanchez[high K pitchers that can be dominant, but we also need a guy to EAT INNINGS, and he has won games and has won in big post season spots.
We need a guy like Garland bc Maine’s health is worrysome, and if we do sign a Perez or Sheets, we will be concerned with injury due to mechanics. We need 2 more pitchers and Redding can be the spot starter/long RP/Insurance plan for when someone gets hurt, bc they always do
Don’t we all know the importance of this season? Its crucial for the development of Wright, Reyes, Beltran that they fight back and prove all their doubters wrong. Your arch rival called the Mets chokers. This is no time to penny pinch. They need the horses to contend. They need to regain there “swagger” as Wright would say. You can’t put them behind the eightball from the start. We’re not asking for everything. Just get them the starting pitching talent so they can make another run at the division.
This is the year the Mets turn into warriors. No more games, just go out and get dirty.
ps.. Ty Wigginton is a golden god… :)
Darth gets it…
we’ve seen rivals get better[Ibanez, Lowe, vasquez, etc...]
we added 2 closers…1 problem down
now we need heart + grit
We need to add guys like Garland, Milar, + Wiggy to go with Wright, Reyes, Murphy, Cora, Tatis, + Church… we need the fire back. Seeing Castillo + Delgado still on the roster remind me of many failed years.
An attitude overhaul is needed. We need fight, fire, and clutchness.
Get Sheets as your #2 guy, and we are a very scary team, add Garland to that, we have a top5 rotation in MLB.
I wish Omar had more control here…it seems like the “Coupons” are pulling the reigns in here.
Mets have a little too much fear in their system. Kind of like when your young and afraid to get into a fight. Then you finally get the balls and realize it wasn’t nearly as big of a deal as you thought. Then you relax and become comfortable in your own skin.
I for one hope on opening day the Mets get into a good old fashioned donny brook. Maybe the notorious John McGraw’s spirit will guide them. Now that dude had guts!
Hamels was just trash talking.
Any GM who listens to a trash-talking opponent should be fired.
this isn’t about Omar listening to Hamels. Its about the Mets kicking the face in of the Phillies. Who disrespected them.
Are you kidding? You’re seriously hurt because Hamels called them chokers?
Who the hell cares what Hamels or any other Phillie says?
Their words are irrelevant. Just do it on the field.
And actually, the Mets beat the Phillies last year in the season series and would have won the division if not for their crappy bullpen.
I don’t understand your thinking.
well, they ask them a question and he truthfully responded.. he was right.. WE are choke artist.. the last 2 season have proved corrected.. don’t you think??
I understand that you and I don’t see eye to eye on this issue. We tried this conversation a week ago.
alex, If the Phillies last year had the Mets bullpen and vice versa, they would have been the choke artists.
it’s easy to call another team choke artists when their bullpen blows 29 saves.
isn’t a bullpen part of a team?? don’t forget that in the last 3 days of the season we score 5 runs.. 5!!! against bums from the marlins.. please.. we don’t hit after the 4th inning and our bullpen cememted us i agree but also there were times where our bullpen or starting pitching fail to come trough.. if u don’t agree see pedro’s and oliver perez last 4 starts..
alex, when you have a crappy pen, it’s a vicious cycle. It puts additional pressure on a team that players from a team with a good pen don’t have to deal with.
The Mets pen was crap for most of the second half. You can’t expect the offense to keep overcoming that. If the Phillies had that pen, ,they wouldn’t have gotten into the playoffs. Grit or no grit.
Baseball has never been a Gentleman’s game. Its never been about showing off! Its about hard work, and guts.
Who said they have to be gentlemen on the field?
They don’t have to be thugs either. Or trash talking nitwits.
However you want to categorize this current bunch, they beat the Phillies head to head last year. It was their crappy bullpen that imploded.
Vcarter, I don’t know how many years in a row the Mets will have to collapse in order for you to see that the BULLPEN is only part of the problem.
When the Mets have a decent bullpen down the stretch and still collapse, then I will agree there is a problem with the offense.
We had our chance in the Marlins series and we were not up for the challenge. We allowed a bunch of cocky arrogant kids to come in our building and made us look like scared little boys. Johan is the only one that showed up that last week of the season.
It was the last game ever at Shea and we looked dead.
The Mets did not have a decent pen in the Marlins series.
The Mets lacked a decent pen for most of last season.
The Mets’ pen also went rapidly downhill at the end of 2007.
This is all verifiable by statistics.
You cannot win anything with a crappy pen. Collapse or no collapse.
I’ve got to commend you for your persistence on this issue. Cheers mate.
The team mentality was off from the start. Down the stretch when everything was on the line, the starting pitching lost its confidence, the offense and the bullpen.
It didn’t not matter what happened three weeks ago. The Marlins series was a playoff series. Everything was square. All we had to do was win 2 of 3 and we were in a playoff. The bullpen did not blow that series. It was the offense!
darth, as I said to alex, it’s a vicious cycle when the pen blows so bad … and the effects are cumulative.
I’ve listened to many players — not just mets players — say how devastating it is to have your pen blow leads late in games.
There is no way I’ll believe there is a serious problem with this offensive group until I see them blow a division lead with a good pen.
We’ll just have to agree to disagree.
OMAR, GET SHEETS!!!!
That is all.
I would sign Sheets and Garland in a minute. Forget OP. Garland is 29, has won 18 games twice, has a career 4.47 era in the AL and switching leagues can only help him because hitters in the NL are not familiar with him. I see him as another Kyle Lohse.
and i agree with everyone who is “nervous” about sheets’ health, but I checked out some #’s from last season…(granted, he was unable to pitch come playoff time, and that obviously hurt the brewers, but looking at the season as a whole….
era– ollie 4.2 sheets 3.0
starts 34 31
complete game 0 5
Shutouts 0 3
IP 194 198
BB 105 47
K’s 180 158
I’ll take the “injured” sheets over inconsistent ollie.
fongu is the only guy who doesn’t want sheets in this blog.. after lowe sign with the braves everybody knows that regardless of injury sheets is the best pitcher!! how hard is that to see.. i don’t even have to look at the nubers to realize that..
alex, sheets (the “healthy one”) was the best pitcher in the beginning of the off season, in my opinion…I’d take him over lowe, over aj, and over cc.
If there werent concerns about his health, he’d be signing a 20 million per year contract..
he gets hurt all the time..but if it wasn’t for that i’m sure he’d be on of the best right handed in the game.. his stuff is electric when he pitches..
But this is not last year. All of Sheets’ numbers for 2009 could be 0. He cannot be counted on. He is high risk / high reward.
I don;t like him as a #2/3 solution. Way too much risk. But him and a #2/3 I can live with. Signing him for 1yr @6M with incentives as a #5 in addition to getting a #2/3 is the only acceptable option.
first u don’t want him.. but hen again u do want him.. sheets can not be counted on coz he gets hurt.. but ollie can not be counted on when he pitches.. see the trend..
no, i don’t want him if he is the only other SP signed, or if it is him and another Redding type. Until now the discussion surrounding Sheets was as a #2 for 2 years. This changes things.
I still, repeat still, do not want him at the top of the order. That is too much risk for the season. But if it is a bonna-fide #2/3 and Sheets comes in after that then if he blows up there is minimal loss to the season as Redding / Niese can take over at #5 which is what we have now – i.e. there is no additional risk at that point other than lost compensation of ~5M for 1 year. Losinjg a pick and a #2 is too much to stomach. This is more of an acceptable risk in my opinion.
But if Sheets is the only one signed we are adding a big risk to the top of the rotation – and that is a disaster waiting to happen.
i agre, that’s why i’ve also been lobbying for garland.. we can have garland as our #5 or #4 depends how he pitches compare to maine.. sheets is not gonna get paid like a #2 so we should pretned he’s not our #2 entering the season, but if he pitches like he can and is healthy who in the mets rotation is better than him..
If you count on Sheets as “a pleasent surprise” I’m on board. Otherwise, leave him at the station.
At 1yr / 5M base he is not #2 salary. He’ wouldn’t get 10M in incentives.
Garland does not cost a pick, Ollie is two picks lost so Garland + Sheets is OK.
One of the basic problems is that we had guys that got injured alot. That wrecks and game plan, you trade prospects, and you mess with development of what is kept. Injuries increase with age. Lowe may be durable, but what about in 2 years when he’s 38? Stop the hemorrhaging and sign younger guys that are not injury prone as core players. Older guys, rehab projects, and shots in the dark sign as fill-ins and such. This will take the stress off the farm system and allow it to build faster.
you need to take the quote marks off injured.
I don’t get a chance to check every post or post that often, so I’m sure I missed the discussion, but am I alone in thinking the Mets have SO many holes that signing ollie is little better than a stop-gap?
The way I see it, here are the problems facing the Mets in ‘09
1. ollie’s inconsistency/sheets’ health
2. maine not going far enough into games
3. total lack of production at 2nd base
4. total lack of offensive/defensive ability at catcher
5. duaner and pedro in the bullpen
6. delgado coming down to earth
7. will pelfrey be as good as last year?
8. johan coming off surgury
9. concussed church
10. murphy’s slump to end last season
Again, I’m sure this has been covered ad nauseum, but I’m so annoyed this morning I had to vent. I normally don’t rush to judgement but I wish Omar would do something. Playoff teams do not normally have this many problems.
Spot on…but, playoff teams usually have those problems, but have solid contingency plans. We have some, but not enough.
1. We have 2 decent Catchers with a little better than mid-road production
2. we have 2 closers, and revamped the BP to be a strength[missing 1 LHRP]
3. we have an answer for the #5 spot[redding] who is solid, plus a few farm hands that cna step in[finally]
4. we have good role players in murphy, tatis, cora, + pagan that can all start, plus Evans + Fmart that can contribute throughout the year.
5. If/when we do sign Ollie or sheets… in the event they do struggle, we have 2 very capable guys to step in-in Maine + Pelf who have had success. Adding a true #2 prevents us from relying on them
The biggest issue here is the production at 2b, which is secondary to that if delgado stinks it up again, we have no solution for what we are counting on.
If im Omar, my order is…
1.sign a #2 sheets>Ollie + a #4/5 Garland>Garcia
2.sign another bat Manny>Dunn>Wiggy>Milar
3. trade delgado>castillo>schneider/castro to upgrade at 1b>2b>C[by priority[]
4. sign a LHRP
still a bit of work to do here, but a lot of time and a lot of good FA’s to work with.
I think there’s little doubt that of all the starters after CC was taken off the market, Sheets was the best starter in terms of pure quality. It’s just that he was so injury prone.
So if he can be had for below $10 million on a 1-year deal, you got to snatch him up. Quickly.
The people on here that want to give Ollie a 4 year $48 mil deal are so wrong. Thank God you’re not running the Mets. We can sign 2 pitchers for less than $48 mil and maybe even an OF’er?
and still have enough to finish up my morgage payments!! lol..
You make a good Basket case, Matt.
awful idea. awful
i would rather have lowe and none of the others and let niese and parnell fight out the 5th spot. not getting lowe was a crucial mistake. not getting perez either is even worse
i mean signing sheets would make it semi-okay i suppose
First off, all these injury concerns with the Mets pitchers, I really doubt there will be any lingering effects with Johan. I’m no doctor, but this guy pitched the best game i have ever seen in person (second to last game vs. the marlins) on that knee. I don’t think his new and improved knee will make him pitch worse. And it’s not like Johnny Maine snapped his elbow ligament. He was still able to pitch with his injury, Jerry and Omar and co. just thought it was smarter not to risk the career of one of their young, up and coming stars. And with Pelfrey, jesus christ, the kid is 25 years old and he’s a 6 foot 7 monster. If he can’t pitch 190 innings when healthy, then we drafted the wrong guy.
Now onto improving the rotation… You gotta go Perez and Sheets on this one. Sadly, you know what your gonna get from Perez. Probably no better than what he’s given us the last two years. We’re gonna overpay for him but what are you gonna do? (i’d much rather have overpaid for lowe, but thats a whole different argument). If Sheets stays healthy, we have the best rotation in the NL and we’ll all be kissing Omars feet… If Sheets goes down, well then we got the same rotation as last year, which is certainly capable with a solid bullpen. The risk is definitely worth it.
i dont see the difference in signing sheets and when he gets hurt, slotting in a garland/redding/neise to fill in from brian lawrence filling in for el duque in previous years?
sheets 1/12 (club option + incentives)
garland 2/16
ty wiggington 2/15
thats only 27.5 million added to the payroll
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