Opinion: Manny-Mania hits New York City

January 30, 2009 at 9:11 am · 229 comments

by Matthew Cerrone

Last night, a group of 30 die-hard Mets fans DSC_0479gathered outside the SNY studios, on air during the network’s Mets Hot Stove show, in what they described as the Million Manny March, while chanting, “Manny, Manny,” with some carrying signs, wearing customized Ramirez jerseys and dread-locked wigs.

To see photos from the rally, check out Priced Out of Citi Field, and this link, and to read quotes from the participants, check out the Daily News – and to read why the event may have hurt Ramirez’s chances, read Brooklyn Met Fan.

Meanwhile, in a report for El Nueva Dia, Carlos Delgado said he, too, would welcome Ramirez, adding, however, that baseball is a business and that all teams must work within a budget.

He’s not alone.  Through a collection of conversations yesterday, I got the feeling Omar Minaya and both Wilpons are actually enticed by the idea of Ramirez batting clean-up for the Mets, just like most fans.  However, also like a lot of fans, they are not interested in paying $20 million per season to get him, because it would come at the expense of the starting rotation – also, they have no interest in signing Ramirez beyond one season.

At this point, if it’s not going to happen, the Mets may want to consider coming out and just saying, “No, we are not going to bid on Ramirez,’ much like the Yankees did yesterday, because time and silence only fuel speculation, conspiracy theories and resentment towards ownership’s decisions – regardless of how wise they may or may not be.

Otherwise, people will continue to create crazy scenarios and think there is a chance – and rightfully so.

Frankly, I think most fans will accept whatever their reason – be it financial, personal, etc.  Sure, there may be some backlash for a few days – but, after that, most every one will turn their attention to the rotation, which is the same as last season; the starting lineup, which is the same as last season; and, to more important subjects, such as the start of spring training, hating the Phillies and getting ready for the season.

OK, enough already, let’s get to it…

Forget money, years, etc., Do you want Manny Ramirez, his bat, track record and personality, on the Mets in 2009?


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However, let’s assume the Mets have just $20 million or so to spend on payroll for 2009, and still need a starting pitcher…

Would you spend all $20 million on Ramirez?


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Additionally, how many years are you willing to committ to Ramirez, who is 37 years old?


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Lastly, just for fun, would you lock Ramirez in to a contract now, if it meant missing out on spending similar money for Matt Holliday next off season?


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{ 229 comments }

Agees Catch January 30, 2009 at 9:21 am

Matt Holliday isn’t that good

Manny will not be happy unless he gets a better deal than he had with the sox

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 9:36 am

Holliday is a pretty good player. But having the possibility to sign him next offseason shouldn’t be the breaking point for not signing Manny. There are plenty of reasons not to sign Manny – but Holliday certainly shouldn’t be one of them…

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:37 am

There are plenty of reasons not to sign Manny”

uh.. can you please provide them?

SPINK3 January 30, 2009 at 9:43 am

lets see..
1) Hes gunna cost $25 mil for over 2 yrs most likely which is a horrible contract.
2) He quit on his team and made it a big joke by holding up a sign saying “please trade me”

Im sure there are others which is why not 1 team besides the dodgers low ball offer has offered him a contract. If he was going to make a team money even with his huge contract why wouldnt teams be lining up for his services??

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:48 am

Wow,

some of you are still with that he quit on the team stuff huh.. look, delgado quit on the team becoz he didn’t wanna play for the manager yet we all cheered him and chanted MVP! when he was on his 2 months run.. please.. i’d take manny 10 times before i consider delgado.. here, manny can take us out of the choke hold we’ve been in the past 2 years..

Xavier22 January 30, 2009 at 9:53 am

Delgado was recovering from a wrist injury, he didn’t quit on the team. He may not have gotten along with Willie but he didn’t pull nonsense like not showing up for games saying he felt sick and other such nonsense that Manny pulled. Delgado is a consummate professional.

I thinkt he poll pretty much says it all, sure more fans would love to have a bat like Manny’s on the team, the only problem is it comes with Manny Ramirez and $cott Bora$ attached to it.

Wanny Backstra January 30, 2009 at 9:56 am

Alex: Did you read the Los Angeles Times article I posted the other day with Manny’s quotes about being miserable in Boston’s must-win atmosphere, about being unhappy that he can’t a$$imilate into the crowd after a game, etc.?

Do you really want him here if he’s going to miserable and obviously only chasing money?

And what makes you think that he alone would have made the difference in the ending of the last two seasons? Is he going to pitch in relief?

jrg1397 January 30, 2009 at 9:57 am

wow alex now I know what your saying but Delgado didnt quit I think he was just stuburn about making adjustments. Its not that he quit. On the other hand without manny the sox would not have one jack so he might of quit this year do the other seven years count when he put the soxs over the top. if the sox would have paid he would have stayed

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 9:57 am

Alex – see my comments below. On the diamond-wise, Manny makes most sense, but there are other things, like the budget, number of years, his antics, etc. that stand in the way of getting him signed here. This isn’t a video game where nothing but the result matters – this is real money and real life…

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 10:00 am

wanny,

i read the same thing, but is different, in boston he was always scrutinize by the media, he’s not a media guy agree,but the man can hit! look, we need pitching, but u really think that signing oliver perez will make THAT much of a difference?? i think not..

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 10:02 am

jrg:

if you want something and u can buy u feel sad, and maybe u make an effort to get it right?

now, we the fans, want manny, and we are the ones who paid to fill the stadiums! so is not like is coming out of their pockest as much as it’s coming out of ours.. please.. it makes sense what u said but not to that point..

jrg1397 January 30, 2009 at 10:07 am

I dont know if we are in the same page but dont get it twisted im wanted manny since two years ago when boston but him on waivers and no one picked him up. I want manny on this team so bad I wish i could be the one paying his salary.

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 10:10 am

“in boston he was always scrutinize by the media”

And in NY, the media will give him a free pa$$ and not shove cameras in his face. Good point.

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 10:21 am

zer:

look, what i meant by that is that he was producing for boston, we never kill a player if he shows up to play and put up numbers, if he doesn’t that’s a different stroy..

steve333 January 30, 2009 at 2:55 pm

3) He threw a 62 yr old man to the floor simply because he couldn’t get the rich ballplayer the amount of free tickets Manny the jerk requested.
4) He begged out of games against the Yankees because the baby was pouting.

Manny is an A-1 JERK.
He can take his bat and cram it where the sun don’t shine.

Aquadealer January 30, 2009 at 10:22 am

You cant argue with numbers. After seeing all 30 people show up last night how can the Mets not sign Manny.

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 10:27 am

LMAO…

it was more like 35..

jrg1397 January 30, 2009 at 9:47 am

what the hell are you guys smoking. Please tell them to give you your money back couse it has made you guys retards. If matt holliday was available and the mets didnt get him I would be pist as I am now that we might not get manny. People on this blog make me lol.

ravi3 January 30, 2009 at 10:26 am

Manny gives you a chance to win it all next year, and the year after…Holliday gives you that chance EVERY year, as another consistent threat in the lineup.

Sylow59 January 30, 2009 at 11:09 am

Holliday’s lifetime splits:

H: .357 BA / .423 OBP / .645 SLP / 1.068 OPS

A: .280 BA / ..348 OBP / .455 SLP / .803 OPS

Plus, he’s 30 next year. Put him in a neutral park and you have Ryan Church, just a whole lot more expensive.

If we’re going to break the bank go after Miggy Cabrera. He’s 27 next year and a whole lot more productive.

steve333 January 30, 2009 at 5:00 pm

Yep, I’d much rather have Holliday than Many. Heck, I’d rather have Dunn than Manny.
Manny is a putz

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:22 am

well, so who else needs to tell the wilpons that manny is needed AND wanted here in NY??

Matthew Cerrone January 30, 2009 at 9:25 am

I think in terms of ‘needs,’ they feel the team needs pitching more than one hitter.

If they could do both, I think they’d do both. However, I believe it’s an either-or scenario at this point.

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:30 am

but then again if they’d do both it’d be for a pitcher like pedro and manny.. not sheets or oliver AND manny..

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 9:33 am

That’s the problem with the Wilpons, Matt. It’s always an “either-or” situation … It’s never a “do what’s best for the team” situation.

I really wish they’d stop worrying about the stupid budget and show some courage for once.

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:36 am

agree..

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 9:39 am

NO GUTS NO GLORY.

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 9:40 am

It’s quite remarkable how so many people (granted, I don’t know the ages, but I’m a$$uming most of us here are adults) don’t understand the concept of budgets and affordability. Let me put this in perspective for you: let’s say you are homeless and have just enough money for one house. Would you buy a vacation home in the Carribean or would you buy permanent residence next to your job location? What would you say to your 12 cousins that call you every day and say, “buy both, buy both!”????

I know we all want things, but you can’t buy what you can’t pay for. It’s as simple as that…

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 9:44 am

Thanks for the lesson zero. I’m probably older than you are. The Wilpons are not homeless and they can raise the budget a little. The luxury tax is not going to cause them to starve. In fact, they’d make the money back easily.

Fred and Jeff are CHICKEN.

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 10:02 am

Mikey,

I’m not going to play a guessing game on our age, but unless you’re the CFO of Sterling enterprises, you have no freaking clue where the Wilpons are as far as their a$$ets, budgets, available funds, etc. And $25 million annual for 3 years is hardly “raising the budget a little”…
Dump the Honda and go buy a Ferrari, I’m sure it’s very affordable to you – all you’d have to do is raise your budget “a little”

Wanny Backstra January 30, 2009 at 10:03 am

The stadium will be sold out regardless of Manny and Mets fans will buy plenty of reyes, wright, beltran and k-rod jerseys. So unless Manny guarantees them a long post-season run (just like he did for the dodgers, eh) I don’t know why you think he’ll result in greater profits.

The luxury tax is not significant. I believe it is a one for one tax. If they go over it by $10 million, I believe they pay $10 million in taxes.

I could be wrong about that. But nonetheless, the luxury tax is not insignificant.

Wanny Backstra January 30, 2009 at 10:06 am

I am wrong. The tax is graduating and can rise up to 40% after a few years over exceeding.

Still not insignifcant.

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 10:12 am

Zero … do some research as to what it would cost the Wilpons as a first time luxury tax.

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 10:13 am

And your Honda analogy is just as bad as your homeless one.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 9:35 am

Exactly. The question is, is Oliver Perez that much better than the alternative pitchers to ignore a complete lineup transformation that Manny would bring? I would probably take the lineup transformation and bring in Pedro to compete with Niese/Garcia/Redding.

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:36 am

oliver perez…

wow.. for the mets to even consider this guy is beyond me anyways..

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 9:43 am

SO you’d rather have Johan, Pelf, Maine, Redding Garcia/Pedro as your rotation.

Then Johan, Pelf, Ollie, Maine, Redding/Garcia/Neise with the possibility to still afford Sheets.

Sorry an offense that has scored in the top 5 of the NL in Runs for 3 straight years, and was tied for #2 last season, is enough for me. Would i love manny YES. Not at the cost of Starting Pitching.

Come on. And the Budget thing is over blown. The yankees have a budget. It’s a lot more then the mets, but it’s still a budget. Stop comparing the Mets to the Yankees. They aren’t the same. The Yanks draw more fans yearly but 500k to a million. They have more people watching their network. That’s because all fans who were 5-18 at the time of the late 90’s who were on the fence about who they liked turned to the yankees because they were winning.

Mets are and will be in the top 3 for the 3rd straight year in payroll. STOP!!!!!!!!!

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 9:46 am

Now that’s a great point. The difference between Perez and Wolf/similar will be what? 7 wins? Not even probably. The difference between Manny and Tatis/Murphy/Pagan will be WAY more than that.

It’s pretty clear that for 2009 Manny would be the best option, but if you think 2010, 2011 and beyond, the winshares and Manny’s value dwindle – hence Mets’ hesitation to even consider this…

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 9:52 am

zero that’s 100% wrong. because offense wins nothing. Has been proven 1000 times. Go look at the top 10 in runs scored. Texas-1, Minnesota-3, Det-5, etc etc,. Didn’t make the playoffs or fizzled out once they were there. In fact 4 of the top 10 made the playoffs.

Then go look at team ERA. 7 of the top made the playoffs. And the ones who didn’t make the playoffs were really bad offensively. Arizona, Oakland and Toronto.

Please PITCHING is way more important then hitting.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:02 am

Mark4212, two things have plagued this team the past few years. Bad bullpen and lack of clutch hitting. Not a lack of overall hitting and scoring runs, but clutch hitting in tight spots late in games. Last year in innings 7-9, they were the worst offensively by far. Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Reyes are all great hitters, but they have trouble getting it done in the clutch. Manny would change that. He would take the pressure off everyone else, especially Wright. We fixed the bullpen, why not fix the clutch hitting? If we get Manny, then we miss out on Oliver Perez. We’ll miss out on his 10-7 record and 4.22 ERA. Is that so much of a big deal? If Tim Lincecum was on the market, then I’d understand letting Manny go. But this is Oliver Perez were talking about.

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 10:06 am

Mark,

I’m not disagreeing with you that pitching is way more important – as a matter of fact, I feel the same way. The question that I’m raising is – do you really feel that Ollie would be that big of a difference maker that would place us on top of the starting pitching category, where without him we’d be no where near it? The point is, while Ollie is the best out there, he’s no Johan, no Lincecum, no Webb. He’s good for a 4+ ERA and 13-16 wins.
Give me a guy that can win 8-10 games with a 5+ ERA and Manny Ramirez, and the overall result will be that much better.

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 9:47 am

Agree 100% Matt.

Also we all know the question marks with the offense heading into the season. But with all the question marks and all the uncertainty and flux the last 3 seasons, this has been an offense that has finished top 5 in the NL in runs scored and in the top 10 in MLB. The offense has been pretty consistent over the last 3 seasons, with different parts outside the core of Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado.

The pitching and lack of pitching depth all around is what has cost the Mets both in the playoffs and in the 2 September collapses. They have relied on either re-tread players who were way past their primes, or never-weres who never had a prime. This year they added a much needed refreshed bullpen, with nearly a complete overhaul. They have lots of depth in the Pen. I thought/think it was imperative to get 2 quality starters in free agency, from the group of Lowe/Ollie/Garland/Sheets. Now that is down to 2 people. I never wanted any part of wolf, or Pedro or looper, or wherever else was out there (obviously outside CC). Lowe’s contract was ridiculous and the Mets were right to p-a-s-s on him.

But now i think it’s really imperative that they sign Sheets and Ollie. I know Sheet’s injury history, but with Garcia and Redding as depth, with Neise fine tuning his stuff at AAA where he should be to start the year, the team finally has some organizational depth at the SP and with all the RP’s traded for and signed they have some good depth there as well.

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:56 am

mark,

i’ve never said the wilpons are cheap, never have, in fact i tell ppl and remind them that we are the #3 highest payroll in ML, now, i’m sure we can’t talk about affording and stuuf like that, soecially with this ppl, they got 20 millions coming in from the stadium, reveneus, tickets sale, what else am i missing, plus they got like 22 millions coming off the book in only wagner and delgado.. come on man, is not that they’re cheap, is that fact that they don’t want manny here, and now, the press, the players and the fans are pressuring them to sign him, and the more we do, the more pressure they feel to do the RIGHT thing by bring ing him here..

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 10:14 am

Alex i wasn’t saying you were personally. I mean the Met fans on this board and most in general. Call them Cheap. For various things.

youknowwhatimsayin January 30, 2009 at 1:04 pm

Which is not big market team type thinking.

They CAN do both, but they won’t. Yet they’ve manged to price out many out of Citi Field. Citi Field is going to sell out, whether it’s Manny Ramirez or Marlon Anderson playing LF. Ownership knows this… put a team out there that is good enough to keep things interesting and be in the mix, but not good enough to achieve what the ultimate goal “should” be…

Steviefan84 January 30, 2009 at 1:05 pm

We need Oliver Perez already so the Mets can focus on other needs. Thanks to Scott Boras that might not happen.

biomarco5 January 30, 2009 at 1:39 pm

I think we’re going to over pay for Perez

Why not sign both Sheets and Martinez then you’d have the money to bring in Manny

Got to think your going to get > or = quality starts out of a sheets/martinez as you would out of perez

in this market how can we sign perez for anything more than 8.5 mill

biomarco5 January 30, 2009 at 1:35 pm

wow, the GODFATHER

steve333 January 30, 2009 at 2:57 pm

Take a Poll of ALL Mets fans, not just those on this blog. Mention the crap that Manny pulled with the Red Sox and see how that Poll turns out.
My guess is that the majority will agree with me-NO MANNY

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 9:23 am

Which is the better combo:

1. Oliver Perez and Murphy/Tatis
2. Pedro Martinez and Manny Ramirez

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:25 am

at this point manny ramirez and anybody…

wnymetsfan January 30, 2009 at 11:41 am

But which Pedro are you getting and remember he would be the 4 and one of Niese, Garcia and Redding is than your 5. It would greatly weaken the starting staff.

DallasMetsFan January 30, 2009 at 9:28 am

What Perdo are you getting?? Manny is nice but if you don’t have a solid pitcher it doesnt matter.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 9:32 am

Basically, would you let Oliver Perez go to bring on Manny? If you do that, then you will be relying on 2 of Garcia, Redding, Niese, Pedro. If you bring Ollie back, then you rely on only 1 of the 4, but sacrifice a huge lineup upgrade.

Steviefan84 January 30, 2009 at 1:09 pm

I don’t know anymore, I’m struggling with it. I want Manny Rameriz but at the same time, if Sheets is not coming with Oliver Perez, I don’t know if I want Perez as much. I just don’t think Perez will pitch lights out with his new contract and that means the Mets need to either to pray and get rid of Castillo to bring in Orlando Hudson and hope he signs cheaply or sign Dunn or Abreu.

I guess we won’t know for another few weeks what’s going to happen. I’d lose all my hair if I had a budget restriction with this team, I just couldn’t do it.

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 9:53 am

Why Pedro? An old broken down engine…
There are a ton of affordable pitchers on the market who at the very least pitch enough. You bring Manny onto the Mets and they no longer need a front of the rotation starting pitcher – Johan, Pelf, Maine, and 2 #5’s will be more than enough to win the division…

Do you care if the starter gives up 5 runs in 6 innings if we’re up 8-5 come 7th? I mean think about it, what’s the difference between a 5-2 and a 8-5 lead? Manny would make the Mets the most potent line up in the NL – look what he did for the Red Sox the past 10 years…

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 9:55 am

I should add that this is just baseball-wise that it makes so much sense, number of years and annual salary are a whole other discussion.
There is no way anyone can make any factual argument that can prove that Oliver Perez = Manny Ramirez in terms of wins. Get real….

BigHangWithEm January 30, 2009 at 10:13 am

zer09,

Who are these “cheap affordable and effective” starting pitchers you are talking about?

Brad Penny is terrible and got $5M guaranteed
Smoltz is hurt and won’t pitch until May, he got about $5M too
Pettitte looked like he was 45 down the stretch last season, he got $6.5M guaranteed

wnymetsfan January 30, 2009 at 11:50 am

The Mets scored on average 4.99 runs per game last year. Adding Manny would improve the offense but not at a consistent enough pace to raise that to 6 or 7 runs a game which it would need to be to more than likely account for 2 rotation spots being taken by Niese, Redding, Garcia and Martinez

Steviefan84 January 30, 2009 at 1:11 pm

Let’s also remember the Mets could always go the trade route. It doesn’t have to be the free agent market they could look at.

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 9:54 am

Option #1 is easily a playoff contender.

Option #2 is a fun team to watch which scores lots of runs and wins less then 80 games like Texas, Detroit, and teams like that who took all offense over pitching.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:13 am

Those teams you mention have no pitching. None. The Mets would lose out on Perez in order to get Manny. That’s it. Oliver Perez. 10-7 4.22. Can’t lose that.

BigHangWithEm January 30, 2009 at 10:16 am

So where are OP’s starts coming from then?

I heard Jose Lima and Alay Soler are still out there.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:26 am

Soler, Lima? We have Niese, Garcia, Redding, and can easily get Pedro. I have to believe that one of those guys should come close enough to Perez. 10 wins and a 4.22 ERA? That’s not exactly lights out.

BigHangWithEm January 30, 2009 at 10:29 am

Neise is not ready, Redding is long man/poor #5, Garcia hasn’t been effective in 4 years.

OP has a better recent track record than these guys

I like the optimism though

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:47 am

Better track record, but how much better? Perez led the league in walks last year and won 10 games. You don’t think Niese and Garcia can do that combined?

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 10:26 am

what if you get the 3.56 Ollie of 2007. He is only a 27 year old pitcher. Yes he isn’t the Rotation Ace that everyone wants.

Detroit had pitching. They were injured. And I can name other teams. But 6 out of the top 10 offenses didn’t make the playoffs, mets included.

Texas, Minnesota, Detroit, Cleveland, Mets, Yankees. All missed the playoffs.

If you look at Team ERA Toronto, Arizona, and Oakland didn’t make the playoffs.

THAT IS IT. And those offenses were #20, #21, #27 in runs scored.

So where did those teams who’s offeses were good finish in ERA. Mets 12th, Texas 30th, Det 27th, Yankee’s 15th, Minny 13th, Cleveland 20th.

In fact the only team not in the top 10 in ERA to make the playoffs was the White Sox, and they were 11th.

And the offenses of the other teams in the playoffs, Dodgers 24th, Milwaukee 17th, Angels 15th, Tampa Bay 13th, Cubs #2, Boston #3, Philly 9th, White sox 6th.

So wait, teams with a better team ERA and less offense then the METS made the playoffs. WEIRD.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:33 am

I agree that pitching is more important than offense, but not when the deciding factors are Manny Ramirez and Oliver Perez. You’re talking about a major offensive upgrade that will transform the whole lineup vs a starting pitcher that can’t go 200 innings and leads the NL in walks. Perez is not good enough to justify letting a hitter like Manny let get away.

BigHangWithEm January 30, 2009 at 11:00 am

The Mets scored as many runs as the Phillies last year. The Phillies played 81 games at Citizens Bank BandBox. The Mets played 81 games at Shea.

The Mets offense is FINE people. If the bullpen blew only 24 saves instead of 28 last year the Mets win the NL East and the Phillies miss the playoffs.

The Mets are not in desperate need for Manny. He would help, he IS one of the best RH hitter in the past 30 years, but the pitching staff is so much more important to success in 2009.

DallasMetsFan January 30, 2009 at 9:24 am

Holliday is overatted. Manning makes your whole lineup better cause the pressure falls on Manny and everyone can relax cause Manny always comes through. Manny contracts pays for himself, with merchandise and other marketing gimics. The question is , Is the Wilpons bold enough to make the move?? He’s a player you need to overpay, kind of what the Mets did to Martinez 4 years ago.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 9:30 am

Eli or Payton?

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 9:42 am

Archie. Omar likes old OFs

DallasMetsFan January 30, 2009 at 9:45 am

lol I just got that from the message. I think Peyton will be a better pitcher, he has more control and stands taller on the mound.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 9:47 am

True.. But we don’t know if Payton can play in NY

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 9:56 am

And how did the Mets over-paying for Pedro work out in the long run..

History repeats itself time and time again.

Steviefan84 January 30, 2009 at 1:16 pm

Well, you can easily apply that to Oliver Perez … How much better can a guy get after pitching to a 4+ ERA with 100 walks in the NL in his walk year. He can easily flame out and look like the “potential” the Pirates hoped for and never live up to his contract.

Look at his track record, he never pitched 200 innings, gives up a ton of walks, very inconsistant and he has trouble focusing against teams like the Marlins and the Nationals who put the Mets away the last few seasons.

Jaded1983 January 30, 2009 at 9:28 am

Great post Matt!

Id much rather work on the rotation issue and either swing a trade for, or sign Holliday. Go to espn.com and check out the Rumblings and Grumblings page, there is an interesting tidbit about holliday away from Coors field. would much rather have him next year!

Jaded1983 January 30, 2009 at 9:29 am

• Home For The Hollidays: One of America’s most brilliant baseball minds, longtime Bay Area baseball writer Jeff Fletcher, recently embarked on a Matt Holliday research project. And what did he conclude? That Holliday’s home-road splits as a Rockie (.345 AVG/.645 SLG/1.068 OPS in Denver, .280/.455/.803 road) don’t tell the whole story.

Holliday

You can check out the whole project here. But in essence, Fletcher decided to examine the premise that Rockies hitters take a while to adjust on the road to the better breaking stuff they see at sea level. And when he looked at Holliday’s road numbers, he found they got progressively better with every game away from Denver:

His career road stats:

First two games of a trip: .277 BA/.472 SLG
Third game: .281/.446
Fourth game: .281/.458
Fifth game: .291/.483
Sixth game: .305/.522
Seventh game: .321/.567
Eighth game: .356/.683

“I agree with that conclusion,” one NL scout said. “Darryl Kile taught baseball a huge lesson. He had as good a breaking ball as anyone in the game. But in Denver, occasionally he’d snap off a good one, but when he didn’t, it hung and it got whacked. Mike Hampton found out, too. His cutter didn’t cut. So as scouts, we always accounted for that. When that team went on the road, we’d always say, ‘Breaking-ball those guys to death.’ So Matt Holliday, once he adjusts to sea level in Oakland, I think he’ll be fine.”

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 9:58 am

Great post!

casey s. January 30, 2009 at 10:01 am

good stuff…

BigHangWithEm January 30, 2009 at 10:19 am

Talk about small sample size. How many “eighth game” ABs are we talking about here? 100?

Holiday is a nice player, but a Coors Field player. Just sign Dunn instead of wasting your time with Holiday

Jaded1983 January 30, 2009 at 10:24 am

The important thing to take away from this analysis my friend, is the trend. Its upward the longer he stays away from coors. Watch him this year in Oakland, he will start off the season slow and then start to put up his big numbers.

manny is great, but patience is not in a the mets fans virtue. waiting until the deadline, or until next offseason for holliday is HANDS DOWN the smart thing to do vs. signing a 37yo manny for 1 or 2 years.

Beltran, Holliday, healthy church, is a strong outfield..

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 10:30 am

Most likely if they deem him ready it will be Beltran, Holliday F-mart then. And they will trade church for something.

ravi3 January 30, 2009 at 10:44 am

Amen to that.

BigHangWithEm January 30, 2009 at 10:47 am

Had to repost, moderation is killing me!

It was 50 “Eighth Game” Plate Appearances in 11 “Eight Games” in FIVE years.

That’s a small sample size.

Now, the trend you mention is interesting, but by going through each road trip, I noticed that Holliday didn’t reach Game 7 or Game 8 that often.

His #s really take off at that point.

Jaded, would you agree if I said Holliday’s #s this year, without Coors Field, would be about 10% below the average between his Home/Road splits … something like .320/.550/.900?

Those are really nice #s, but I wouldn’t give away the farm or destroy the budget for that. I would just rather have Manny now, but of course, not at the expense of young quality pitching, i.e. Oliver Perez.

Maybe waiting until NEXT off season for Holliday, like Jaded suggested, is the right move. The great thing is if you wait one more year, it’s possible Church puts up #s close to Holliday in 2009 and FMart and Murphy are both ready for everyday roles. That would allow the Mets to ignore Holliday altogether in 2010 and get themselves more pitchers and a new right side of the infield.

Jaded1983 January 30, 2009 at 11:08 am

BigHangWithEm:

I would certainly concede with those numbers you suggested for Holliday, and you bring up a great point regarding a healthy church and what his production could be as well as FMart.

I think due to this, it would be prudent to NOT sign manny. yes its a quick fix, and you cant argue with that bat, however if the mets wait and get holliday he is another YOUNG, CORE, piece to add to the group. that .900+ OPS looks mighty tasty hitting from (most likely) the 5th spot in our lineup!

or conversely, as you suggested

the mets have a healthy and productive church and FMart in the OF on ‘10.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 9:28 am

This poll tells us that we all want Manny, but only half of us want him at the price of a SP (or two) and only for two years.

So the debate is whether to sign Manny or to sign a SP or two. Personally, I want to see them spending 20 mil on Sheets and Wolf. I realize that Sheets and Ollie probably wouldn’t be an option, but if that’s possible that’s even better

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 10:00 am

I’m with you on the 2 SP’s. But one has to be Ollie at this point. HAS TO BE. I wanted Sheets and Garland or Ollie and Garland. I want no part of wolf. We will have 3 guys in the rotation with the potential to break down then (Maine, Sheets, Wolf) and could be looking at a post all-star break rotation of Johan, Pelf, Redding, Garcia, Neise.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:02 am

It would be ideal to have Ollie and Sheets. But with 20 mil budget, I’m not sure if we can afford both.

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 10:30 am

Know what you mean. But I would just not want Wolf and Sheets. Both are as injury prone as they come.

jthomas23 January 30, 2009 at 9:30 am

Exactly what I was thinking. Matt Holliday’s splits away from Coors are alarming anyway….We’re talking about basically the best right-handed pure hitter since Ted Williams…Manny should be a priority over an erratic pitcher we basically pulled off the scrap heap 2 seasons ago. Sorry Oliver, but “potential ace stuff” < best hitter of our generation.

Phillie AWH January 30, 2009 at 9:31 am

Matt,

You finally hit the nail on the head as to why, IMO, the Mets do not want to be locked in to a LT deal with Manny: Matt Holliday – younger, less likely to decline because of it. (And who’s Holliday’s agent?)

Delgado’s $$$ comes off the books next season, and there are usually a couple of adequate first basemen available every offseason. Or, if they choose, thay can resign Delgado for less money.

Also, if the A’s are not in it by the trade deadline, they could look to move Holliday in 2009, rather than let him go the FA route while on their roster.

Signing Manny to an expensive deal might and probably would preclude the Mets from being able to trade for Holliday (or anyone else) at the trade deadline.

So there are three potential factors at play, which, IMO, will keep Manny off the Mets:

One – the money
Two – Holliday, either this season TD or long-term thereafter
Three – Fmart lurking in the minors (imagine the outfield in 2010 of Holliday, Baltran, Fart).

Just sayin’

Phillie AWH January 30, 2009 at 9:35 am

Oops, that was supposed to be Fmart.

zer09 January 30, 2009 at 10:14 am

so “a$$” is moderated but “fart” isn’t…UNFAIR!!!

sabermetrician January 30, 2009 at 9:35 am

Every point you make is valid. I do think one thing is overlooked, is that with Manny we probably won’t need a trade deadline bat. But with that said we’re not getting Manny so it doesn’t matter.
I wish we’d get Sheets and Perez, but that’s probably not happening. I get this feeling were headed toward something like Perez and Abreu.

Snort-It-Like-Keith January 30, 2009 at 9:37 am

Trading for Holliday during the season would not be a smart move at all. His agent is Boras. He is a free agent after this season which means Boras will look for a Mark Teixeira type deal for him. Not to mention you would have to trade a tone of prospects to get him mid season if the A’s are out of it. You all know how Billy Beane works.

Sign him as a free agent yes, but don’t trade for him mid season when we would give up way to much for him and have him potentially walk as a free agent.

mark4212 January 30, 2009 at 10:05 am

If you trade for him it will 100% be with the stipulation that he signs a long term deal, ala Johan.

Steviefan84 January 30, 2009 at 1:22 pm

The problem with that? He won’t sign a long term contract unlike Johan because guess what? Scott Boras is his agent. Players don’t hire Scott Boras unless they expect to make a lot of money. Mets are already having trouble signing Perez and not enough money for Sheets, Rameriz or any other outfielders.

Giving this type of money to Holiday would be the wrong thing to do.

sabermetrician January 30, 2009 at 9:31 am

Hit the Weights Zeile -
Didn’t mean to abandon you last night but I was in a rush. I want to resume our convo about greatest RH bat of past fifty years. I thought of two more obvious choices. Willie Mays and Albert Pujols. Back to Schmidt, you have to adjust for era, and not just OPS+, which is close, but Schmidt dominated his era, Manny is great in his era, but the third best RH hitter during his time. Schmidt led his league in homers 8 times, Manny once…I want to continue, but I’m at work so I have to be discrete. (By the way, I’m not an a-s-s like some people, I just want a good discussion).

ravi3 January 30, 2009 at 10:46 am

haha faaar too few of us around here.

alex.422 January 30, 2009 at 9:32 am

wait to see how he will perform at the colliseum this year.. that will put all the doubts away.. if he has a good year then he’d be consider a good player, if don’t, just another coors project and be forgotten,.

chuckdgaf January 30, 2009 at 9:33 am

The METS can avoid a PR backlash by offering Manny the same exact deal as the Dodgers, 2 years 45 million and a team option for a 3rd. The METS could add some real high end incentives(IE-40 HR’s, 125 RBI’s) to increase the dollar value and leave it up to Manny and Boras. If they decline, they come off as greedy( they are) and MET fans will than move on content that mgmt tryed.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 9:56 am

Agreed, although I would go slightly less with a mutual option for the 3rd year with a buyout.
If he wants to play for the Mets he takes a little less money. If he is just a hired gun then forget about it.

CaseStreet January 30, 2009 at 10:39 am

I don’t think you can give incentives based on performance. It has to be either games played or ranking in votes for awards like MVP or Silver Slugger.

Justin4383 January 30, 2009 at 9:34 am

What about sign Manny, then trade delgado to the Blue Jays for Roy Haladay and move Murphy to 1st.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 9:35 am

Funny guy…

Snort-It-Like-Keith January 30, 2009 at 9:38 am

lol yup the Jays want old man Delgado for one of the best pitchers in baseball

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 9:40 am

Yeah, the Jays would really jump at that opportunity.

Phillie AWH January 30, 2009 at 9:40 am

Justin, at this point in their careers and based on their ages, it would take 3 Delgados to get Roy Halladay.

The Jays would be fools to do that.

Just look at the dearth of good starting pitching right now. The Mets are negotiating with OPerez, who stands to get at least 3 yrs and 8 figures, despite being a marginal and erratic starter for most of his career.

Halladay, CY winning ace.

Steviefan84 January 30, 2009 at 1:24 pm

Something tells me we are going to be debating all this stuff for many more weeks to come.

VCarver January 30, 2009 at 10:22 am

Justin, please tell us you were being sarcastic. I hate to think someone would think that could ever get done.

jthomas23 January 30, 2009 at 9:35 am

As far as Mike Schmidt, he’s definately in the conversation, but look at the era in which he played versus Manny. Apples to oranges….

Gina January 30, 2009 at 9:35 am

I’d say Holliday is too much of a question mark as of right now. I’d want to see what he does in Oakland.

sabermetrician January 30, 2009 at 9:36 am

Agreed.

letsgomets09 January 30, 2009 at 9:43 am

Yeah, let’s see. Holliday’s numbers were a inflated of Coors Field. He doesn’t do much on the road, maybe a .280 hitter.

carlosgomezisfast January 30, 2009 at 9:36 am

If they cannot afford him this year in their budget. Why not offer him 2 years 45 mil, but give him say 10-15 this year, and the rest next year when Delgado and Wagner come off the books. Stick Evans/Murphy at first in 2010, and hopefully FMart will be ready when Manny’s contract is done.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 9:50 am

Sounds good to me. There sure is a lot of money coming off the books next year.

tonyatlas44 January 30, 2009 at 9:58 am

That is a great point – there is money coming off the books next year. Let’s get a new cleanup hitter for our new ballpark!

VCarver January 30, 2009 at 10:29 am

Because LT payrolls are based on average annual value so backloading is irrelevant.

DallasMetsFan January 30, 2009 at 9:44 am

I believe the Mets org is committed to winning but does that commitment includes a Championship?? That is the question. If WS is the goal Manny will be a Met.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 9:44 am

Let’s look at worst case scenario. A-s-sume that Mets don’t sign Sheets and Maine, Pedro, and Garcia are all out

With Ollie,

Johan
Pelf
Ollie
Redding
Niese

Without Ollie

Johan
Pelf
Redding
Niese
?????

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 9:52 am

Why would Maine not be back? They were not far apart at all in their arbitration proposals. Less than 1 million apart.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 9:58 am

Maine just went through shoulder surgery this off season. He may not be 100% healthy and there is some risk

hjhjhjhjhj January 30, 2009 at 12:35 pm

it was a bone spur…this is not a rotater cuff of a labrum people….its a bone SPUR!!!!

hjhjhjhjhj January 30, 2009 at 12:35 pm

of should be or

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 9:54 am

Well of course we would have problems if 3 of our SP got injured. But if that did happen then it would be Parnell and Figgy.
What team has more than 8 quailty SP?

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:00 am

3 of our SPs have had serious injuries last year and missed out bulk of their starts. With Ollie signed, we would have 4 SPs(including Redding) that are reliable instead of 3

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:07 am

I don’t disagree. However, I will still say that having 8 SP is enough for depth purposes.
I also would as sume that if the Mets do not get a FA pitcher in Perez, Sheets or Wolf then they would trade for someone anyway.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:16 am

If they can get a good pitcher via trade (with dumping all salary to other team), then I’m all for it. But that’s a whole different story.

Chances are those pitchers in return are salary dumps (which doesn’t make sense). Or if not, they are prob young with potential, hence mets may have to give up a lot.

hjhjhjhjhj January 30, 2009 at 12:37 pm

wow is the sky falling too? you must depress everyone you know with that attitude

Beckfan January 30, 2009 at 9:45 am

You people are crazy…………..

Peter January 30, 2009 at 9:48 am

For a team that scored the second most runs in the NL last year, we sure come across unappreciative.

I think the offense was also beaten down by scoring 3 and then the BP giving up 4. Imagine this offense not pressing and relaxed!!!

Focus on Ben Sheets (I wanted Garland also, but that’s shot) and maybe Perez as well and watch this team roll next season.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 9:54 am

But in innings 7-9 they were the worst in baseball in terms of runs scored. It’s great that they score early and a lot, but late inning clutch hitting is necessary too.

letsgomets09 January 30, 2009 at 10:01 am

Scored a lot of runs, but not when they needed to.

Peter January 30, 2009 at 10:42 am

I’d think it’s more like they’d come back and score and it was given away again. There’s only so many times games can be given away before it takes it’s toll on the offensive players.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:50 am

To an extent, that’s true. But how many times have we seen them score 3 runs in the first inning, and then go without a hit until the 8th or 9th inning?

Peter January 30, 2009 at 2:03 pm

Sometimes, but even 3 runs in the first with a shutdown BP will win a lot of games. It’s not like we’re looking for a 20 game swing here.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 9:49 am

The only option isn’t Manny and Pedro (or Garcia, etc.)

If omar did sign Manny, he could also trade for a SP to make the $$ work.

There is the Delgado trade option too (kill 2 birds, get a SP and save some $?) although that downgrades the offense to offset much of the Manny bump.

Or trade for Alex Rios (or someone like that) and get youth, defense, and a nice bat, for less $$? and still go get some pitching.

If Delgado goes, they could use murphy + pick up a veteran 1B RH bat, like Millar. Wonder how close to Delgado a Murhpy + Millar platoon would be (overall production, not just HRs).

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 9:52 am

I have been saying that all along. Get something for Delgado and let Murphy play 1B. Murphy and Manny is better than Murphy and Delgado.

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 9:57 am

Yes, Manny is better than Delgado. You won’t lose anything in terms of defense in LF … and you’ll gain better defense at 1B if you platoon Murph with Evans there.

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 9:53 am

Thank you stick. If the big bad budget is such a concern to some people … there are ways to make it happen and make it work, within budget.

letsgomets09 January 30, 2009 at 9:59 am

I think trading Delgado isn’t a badt idea either. They should’ve been shopping him all winter. His value will never be higher than right now. He was an MVP candidate last year, hard to believe that will happen again this year. The bulllpen is getting most of the blame from last year’s collapse, but the offense tanked at the end of the season, hardly any clutch hits. The Mets were 19th in the league with RISP. Time to shake up the lineup, get Manny.

letsgomets09 January 30, 2009 at 9:59 am

I think trading Delgado isn’t a bad idea either. They should’ve been shopping him all winter. His value will never be higher than right now. He was an MVP candidate last year, hard to believe that will happen again this year. The bulllpen is getting most of the blame from last year’s collapse, but the offense tanked at the end of the season, hardly any clutch hits. The Mets were 19th in the league with RISP. Time to shake up the lineup, get Manny.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:25 am

The only way Delgado gets traded is if the Mets pick up some of his salary. No way that other teams will take on his salary given his age, his lack of performance in later part of 07 and first half of 08 season.

Why would Toronto give up a young bat Rios for an old bat Delgado??

IF trading Delgado was for budget reason, it would not work.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:40 am

Your example misses a couple of things.
1 it would not be for Rios straight up. We would have to include a couple of lower prospects. Also, Rios’s contract is terrible so there is incentive for the trade.
2) the Angels will be desperate for offense and a short term contract like Delgado’s would be ideal. So you eat 4 million of Delgado’s contract yet still get back a SP? That still saves money.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 9:50 am

I would be upset if they did not make at least an offer.
Something like 10/20/20 for 3/50. Yes he is most likely not going to accept that but at least at that point I will know they tried.

Also, where is the option of signing him to less than 20 million for this year and raising the other 2 years salary? Then trading a combination of Church/Murphy/Evans/Kunz etc for a SP like Sanchez?

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 9:54 am

The Wilpons are too closed minded to think of that.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 9:59 am

Right, that’s why they did that with Krod. Most of us forget that not only did they get Krod below market value, they got him for 8.5 million the 1st year.

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 10:09 am

Too closed minded to make a big trade to make room for Manny.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:11 am

Maybe, or maybe even more likely that they don’t want to trade away their 2010 starting 1B in Delgado.
Wait and see guys, Delgado will still be here in 2010 and maybe beyond. We don’t have a replacement and there are no FA to sign. Please don’t say Murphy because if we don’t add a big bat in LF then Murphy’s offense won’t cut 1B.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:14 am

TRS, why did you have to ruin my day with the spector of Delgado returning for 2010?

Although looking at it positively, the only way he returns is if he has a strong and healthy 2009, so that is good for the Mets.

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 10:14 am

You’re right about that. Delgado will be back.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:16 am

Wouldn’t that be Minaya that’s too close minded and not the Wilpons? Isn’t he the one who makes the trades?

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:19 am

Actually stickguy it’s more a notion of that even if he’s average there is nothing out there. Murphy will not be the answer and there are no FA to speak of.

mikey_FF January 30, 2009 at 10:21 am

Chan Ho … it’s a combination of the two.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:03 am

I really think they should keep it to 2 years guaranteed. And we all know how much Manny likes option years!

Who knows what the Dodgers actually did offer, and how high they will go. IMO, it will be like Lowe, where the other team will go over the top. But, might as well throw out a bid, just in case.

Say, year 1 – 18, year 2 – 27. Thats the 45 the Dodgers seem to have (had?) on the table. I would add some kind of vesting option (not team) for year 3 (25?), making it possibly 3/70.

Fits the budget now. Might have to stretcha tad, but could fit in Ollie still. Or someone.

Year 2, just roll Delgado into the manny contract.

Year 3 could be the messy one. But still, they could theoretically add Holliday (or another sizable contract) in 2010, using the Wagner money as a base.

Key will be locking down much of the rotation for 2-3 years, and/or being able to belned in 1-2 rookies in the next 2 years.

Perfect scenerio might be Ollie for 3/30, meaning 4 SPs are under control. Neise takes over the 5 hole by 2010, and Holt comes on board for 2011 FT duty.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:05 am

For some reason the 3rd year does not bother me. It would be at or around 20 million for that year. It would be possible to eat half of the contract and trade him if things were a disaster.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:15 am

so offer 18/27/20. That is 3/65 total. And you are right, if he can still hit in year 3 but needs to get out of LF, trade him to the AL.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:28 am

Option years will be out of question for Manny. The only reason Manny wanted out of Boston was because of option. Regardless whether it’d be team option or vesting option, it won’t work. Not to mention Boras does not work with options either.

NewYorkMetfanatic62 January 30, 2009 at 9:51 am

I can’t wait until this madness is over.

dave27 January 30, 2009 at 9:55 am

Are you serious??? The Mets should come out and anonunce they are not going to bid on Manny?

Umm….THEY HAVE. COUNTLESS TIMES. All of this “Manny-Mania” you cite is noting but a handful of delusional clowns who refuse to listen and let it die.

The Mets don’t have to do anything. Teams don’t owe their fans a peek at their hand just to solve their winter boredom.

It is not happening…I would think Cerrone would be responsible enough not to keep fanning these irrational plans when it is PAINFULLY obvious this is not happening, no matter how many lame, 30-person “rallies”, blog posts, and WFAN calls you all want to make.

Only Mets fans can make these things take on such a life of their own that the team looks like failures when they don’t get a guy they were never even interested in.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:22 am

Then how come when asked why he didn’t want Manny, Jeff Wilpon said that it wasn’t true and that in fact Omar never asked him about it? And why does Omar keep saying that pitching comes first?

dave27 January 30, 2009 at 11:26 am

Because Omar is the GM. Jeff Wilpon is not supposed to comment on what players he “wants” – it is not his job to build the team, it’s Minaya’s.

In any case, you really did nothing but cite one of dozens of occasions on which the Mets have reiterated their lack of interest.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 11:44 am

Reiterating lack of interest and shutting the door completely are 2 different things. Omar plays his cards so tight, you never know what he is planning. He never actually closes the door when asked.

NewYorkMetfanatic62 January 30, 2009 at 9:57 am

if Perez continues to ask for more money, do you think Omar should call the Padres to see if Peavy would chance his mind and play for the Mets? Peavy is making 11 million in 2009 and Perez is not even close to Peavy talent wise. Obviously we would have to give up alot but Peavy is locked up.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:00 am

Yes and I am sure he has. Along with Sanchez in San Fran, Halladay, Oswalt and any other top to marginal starter.

jrg1397 January 30, 2009 at 10:11 am

who do we have that san diego would be intrested in without giving them one of our core players. dont say delgado couse they have Gonzalez and we are not goingto part with beltran, reyes or wright. so who do we have that would fit that profile.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:13 am

They were not getting core players from the Cubs. It would take our top prospects. Something like Niese, Maine and Fmart.

jrg1397 January 30, 2009 at 10:18 am

I honestlly dont think that is enough. The mets got a steal with Santana and it was couse the twins knew they were not gonna be able to sign him. Peavy is another deal. He doesnt like the city is a stud pitcher and only gets paid 10 to 11 mil. if the mets could do it with those players you said I would be shocked.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:26 am

Wait and see what the Cubs give up before you make that comment. I think you will be surprised.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:03 am

Why would the Mets come out and back themselves into a corner with the Manny situation? Why say they are not in it?
What happens if Perez signs elsewhere and Sheets is too much of an injury concern. You don’t think it’s possible the Mets would then turn to Manny and trade for a SP?

Not to mention, here’s the duh part. Do you think it would make Boras very happy if you completely kill the market for Manny? Good luck getting Perez then. Not to mention, why make it easier for another team to sign him cheaper?
Just to put the fans at ease? LOL. What a way to run an organization.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:17 am

Insulting Boras is not an issue. he has no heart or soul, and would sell his mother to the highest bidder.

Can you honestly see him taking less money for Ollie because he though the mets hurt the manny negotiations?

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:25 am

Yes, he has too much of an ego. I am sure he could play other teams into giving Ollie just as much as the Mets. Even if not, then I am sure he would try and make them overpay even more.
There have been many instances that Boras and other teams are not even on speaking terms.

LIMetfan74 January 30, 2009 at 10:09 am

Maine avoids arbitration gets 2.2mil 1 year

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:19 am

I thought it was 3.1 mil

Number57 January 30, 2009 at 10:11 am

If only this made a difference…

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:11 am

Manny isn’t actually the “need”. he is just the fan focus.

If there is a need, it is to upgrade the Offense. And LF just happens to be the most likely place (and easiest, in that there are more corner OFs that can hit vs. C and 2B.

So they could accomplish filling the need without getting Manny. Oakland traded for holliday. The Mets could also trade for a bat if they need to.

Same as with the “ollie/sheets or bust” idea, signing a FA, while simple, is not the only way to add players.

There is always a trade off between spending a lot of money on a FA contract vs. trading talent (ML or prospects) for someone under control at a more reasonable rate.

Of course, the absolute best thing is to develop and promote your own stars. And only hit the FA market for fill in parts (like a Redding), or very selectively, a big $$ star.

So Manny is not the only possible way to improve the offense. Just probably the most expensive!

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:16 am

But as you said is he really the most expensive?
Suppose you want to trade for Lee who makes 18 million for 3 more years yet you COULD get Manny for 2/45 and an option. You would be paying only 2-4 million less while giving up top talent such as Fmart or Murphy in return.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:20 am

That expensive was in regard to the dollar hit to the budget. talent expensive is harder to quantify.

But to take on someone like Lee, either the Astros eat contract (amking him affordable) or they get back 2nd tier (aka salary dump) talent.

That is a tough contract to justify taking on over manny, since it isn’t much cheaper, and he also has OF issues (as in he should probably go to the Al too!)

So, I would do 2/50 for Manny before I would give up F Mart and Neise + take on all of Lees remaining deal (lot of years too)

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:23 am

But Lee is talented enough that it’s not going to be a salary dump. Someone would trade decent players for him.
Not to mention that still you are only talking about saving 2-4 million a year even if you give up marginal talent and you would be on the hook for another year.

Wanny Backstra January 30, 2009 at 10:14 am

I am certain that if the Mets don’t get Manny this year it will have nothing to do with wanting to get Matt Holliday NEXT year.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:16 am

I can’t see it either unless Church does not produce. IF they don’t get Manny then they think Fmart will be there in 2010.

anditsouttahere January 30, 2009 at 10:16 am

as this progresses more and more, i want manny less. if they sign ollie and sheets, that solidifies the mets with one of the strongest rotations in baseball. with a strong staff now you can leave it up to the younger guys to take on more responsibility and pressure. with manny, we push murphy to the wayside and he seems like a solid guy who could become a clutch favorite (like a fonzie). i prefer a good character over an attention hog.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:21 am

Having Garcia, Redding and Niese I don’t see them signing both Perez and Sheets. 1 they have told Garcia and Redding they will compete for a SR job as part of the reason for signing them and 2 they have said they want to give Niese a shot.

anditsouttahere January 30, 2009 at 10:25 am

well either sheets or ollie (preferably sheets) still gives the mets a stronger rotation then last year considering the back end isn’t bogged down by an injured pedro. my point is that we don’t need manny and his constant cry for attention could take away from what makes gives the mets the identity they’ve always had

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:29 am

I don’t buy that we don’t need Manny because of that. We can get OF production from others but Manny being Manny has never really hurt a clubhouse that we know of. And what identity have the Mets always had? Aside from a few good runs? The loveable losers? Come on.

anditsouttahere January 30, 2009 at 10:27 am

also, i’d rather see them pay ollie and hudson and use the remaining to swallow castillos contract. then you have a winning, young team

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:31 am

For one in terms of 2B, Hudson is not old. In fact he may already be on the decline. 2 he only marginally helps the offense. Especially not worth paying 12-14 million for by the time you buy out Castillo.
Hudson maybe the most overrated FA there is by fans. That’s why no one is even mentioned in giving him 1 year for 6 million at this point.

therealsince86 January 30, 2009 at 10:31 am

I meant not young.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:39 am

Hudson would be a huge mistake.

Unless, they found a way to move Castillo, and could get Hudson on a very short, lower $ deal (1/6, 2/10 say).

Hudson at 2/10, and eating 1/2 of Castillos contract? I can live with that, just to clear Luis off the team. Even if the O or D may not get much, if any, better.

Of course I have no idea why any team would do it (or if Orlando takes the deal), but why not dream?

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:34 am

I am actually very confident with having Santana, Pelf and Maine as the top three. I will go out on a limb and say not that at the end of the year this will turn out to be one of the top top-3 rotation sets in the league.

The current cast of characters fighting for the 5th (and 6/7) spots is also fine. And quite possibly, they will end up with a solid showing out of the 5 hole (from 1, or more likely a combo, of the 3)

So really, they need to nail down 1 more spot. Ollie would do fine. Sheets I like, but the arm issue does give pause, so are you prepared to have 2 of the #5s in the rotation at the same time?

My other prediction is that Holt will pitch for the Mets by the end of the year. And I really hope it is because he earned it! And he will be in the rotation for 2010.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:42 am

You can’t rely on Maine right now. He had a minor shoulder surgery this offseason. So, there is a chance that he will go down this season.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:45 am

There is a chance that every pitcher goes down at any time.

Considering what Maine produced last year with the spur, and based ont he reports of how good he is feeling now, I actually feel more confident about him than some other guys! Certainly more so than Sheets or Wolf.

bdwyshaps January 30, 2009 at 10:27 am

I say give Manny a huge incentive laden contract. The man has shown that his abilities are nearly endless when he decides to try. So give him a $15 million contract that blows up to the $25 million he wants so long as he wins the MVP. Then watch Manny play like he did in LA and win the MVP. Make the contract renew for so long as he keeps winning the MVP–then watch him win 2-3 back to back.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:36 am

As crazy as this sounds, it might actually be the most logical Manny post yet!

Just make it something like top 3, top 5, or maybe a graduated scale (higher you finish, more yet get). And MVP finish bonuses are even allowed!

Kalihan42 January 30, 2009 at 10:37 am

I hate to break it to you but there is no way that Bora$ lets him sign a deal that doesn’t garentee the money…

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:40 am

Boras really does only suggest. he can’t prevent it.

All part of Manny being manny, right?

Who knows, maybe Manny really wants to be in NY after all, and will take it?

Plus you get the spin of a huge contract, even if not all guaranteed, to soothe his ego.

Kalihan42 January 30, 2009 at 10:44 am

I doubt he takes 15 million with those hard to achieve incentives when he can probably get more garenteed from the Dodgers….maybe if it was 20-25 million for the first 2 years and the 3rd year was less with the incentives to bring it up to that level, but I do not see the Mets agreeing to that much for 1 player at this point in the off season.

fyffem January 30, 2009 at 10:34 am

Is the last question even serious? Hmmm let’s see Matt Holliday versus a healthy productive Manny (even at 38)…I’m sorry. Gotto go with an elderly Manny.

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:38 am

Look. If we were to get Manny, it’s straight out give 20-25 mil or nothing. There’s no messing with contracts and options and there’s no trading Delgado.

Options were the reason why Manny wanted out of Boston. So unless it’s player’s option, it won’t work. Plus Boras does not deal with options.

Trading Delgado would only work if the Mets eat majority portion of his Salary. Other teams will not pay a 38 year old declining 1B the whole 14 mil or whatever it is. Especially in this economy and his track record at the beginning of 08 season. So it beats the purpose of reducing payroll.

stickguy January 30, 2009 at 10:43 am

I think he is 36. And coming off a 38/115 season, in a pitchers park. And makes 12 million for 1 year.

The Mets would not have to eat most of his contract to move him, and there really isn’t anyone comparable on the FA market 9since Dunn seems to be hated, and really can’t play 1B).

Not saying they could get peavy for him, but some team that needs a LH power bat and doesn’t want a long term commitment could give them something useful.

Kalihan42 January 30, 2009 at 10:51 am

Probably more like 38. It came out a few years back that he may have been lying about his age….

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:55 am

If teams wanted a power LH bat, they would sign Dunn at much cheaper rate. Dunn is younger and will come cheaper than Delgado.

But you can see that teams don’t want to go near Dunn at what he is asking (probably 10-12 mil). So, I really don’t see teams going for Delgado, who is older and more expensive.

Sylow59 January 30, 2009 at 11:21 am

While I do like Dunn, Delgado has a 1 year contract and is a more complete player than Dunn. A team in need of a 1-year stop gap would be more interested in Delgado than Dunn. For example the Angels. They need a LH 1B for 1 year.

casey s. January 30, 2009 at 10:39 am

Anyone else keeping a spreadsheet of the payroll?

I have approx. $125m committed right now. (This a-s-sumes deals with Maine and Feliciano are reached at the midpoint of the player and team asks.)

Mets have to sign one more SP (Perez) and maybe another outfielder (Abreu/Dunn/Manny).

The budget for this year is what? $140m?

That leaves them with $15m to spend.

But, how does the deferred comp factor in? For instance, Johan, Beltran, and Delgado all defer substantial amounts of their salaries (a total of $16.5m in 2009). I know the team has to pay it, but it doesn’t go agaisnt this year. In fact, it could be years before the team must pay it. Do they hold the money in escrow? Probably not, because why defer then?

Taking the deferred money out, the Mets have $109m committed THIS YEAR. Just food for thought.

So, the have about $31m to spend.

$11m for Perez and $20m for Manny.

This is all with the caveat that deferred money is truely deferred and doesn’t get in the way of 2009 spending.

VCarver January 30, 2009 at 10:48 am

The Luxury Tax payroll is what drives the Mets spending.

I’m pretty sure deferred salaries are counted in the years they are earned.

Signing ollie would put them approximately where they were at the end of last season payroll wise.

casey s. January 30, 2009 at 11:02 am

okay, that’s right. so, $125m plus $31m ($11m for Perez, $20m for manny) is $156m. The luxury tax limit for 2009 is $162m, leaving only $6m if they were to get Manny and Perez for the above amounts. Not much flexibility then.

But, they say they want to be at $140m, so…

It’s Perez for $11-12m, and that’s about it.

Coolpapabell January 30, 2009 at 1:32 pm

Which does not appeal to me at all. I think they should try to bring in Dunn and Ollie, and at the very least Abreu. Dunn/Abreu next year.

I guess punting on offense this year would be alright on teh condition that they sign Matt Holiday next year, which is no lock considering he and Bay are the only impact bats. Maybe Dye if his option is bought out.

biomarco5 January 30, 2009 at 1:48 pm

does anyone know why the mets are so staunch about not paying lux tax especially since its only 17 cents on the dollar.

my point being, if your going to drop 145 mill and know you can make x, but if you spend 175 and make 2x isn’t it a wise business decision.

I dont think the wilpons are cheap (they paid a ton to Johan, and you could argue that was a greater risk), I also think Omar is a really good GM. But I am perplexed as to why they see it as an either or sceniro (pitcher or hitter, not both) when those pieces together could really help the team generate additional revenue

all of this said, check out youtube “manny dodgers” videos after you watch a few of them you get the sense he really liked LA, in additon to the article “Wallybackmann” is quoting, i’m beginning to believe Boras just wants to use the Mets as leverage to get Manny the best deal from LA

DallasMetsFan January 30, 2009 at 10:45 am

I’m concerned if Manny will even want to come and play for the Mets. We’re a-s-suming he does. I believe boras will love to get the Mets involve just to drive up what he will eventually get from Dodgers. So I believe that is why they are staying away, why get in a bidding war if you know you’re going to lose, or have a good chance.

Chan Ho Parking Lot January 30, 2009 at 10:51 am

Because it will get the fans off their backs.

biomarco5 January 30, 2009 at 1:48 pm

think you have a really good point, i posted above about it before reading your post, but i think you hitthe nail on the head

BxMetsdude January 30, 2009 at 10:54 am

we’ll get involved at the last minute…If the price is right I think he’ll be in Queens.

Let the Dodgers give another low ball offer first and we pull a Derek Lowe with him (hopefully not at the same price) and swoop in for the kill.

Kalihan42 January 30, 2009 at 10:56 am

If this lobbying does not drive up the price….he can ask for more if he KNOWS NY fans want him this bad.

BxMetsdude January 30, 2009 at 11:10 am

Its about time to man up, if the price is w/in reason you gotta pull the trigger.

The Mets FO was talking about how we needed to put a revamped team out there w/ the new stadium.

Its time to do what you promised you would. signing Ollie Perez is putting the same team back out there.

Manny gets that done by his name and performance on the field.

casey s. January 30, 2009 at 11:05 am

actually, it would seem any word with a-s-s in that order.

p-a-s-s put me into moderation.

cver January 30, 2009 at 11:08 am

Some of you are missing a point here. When you talk about being in the top 5 offensively – what the hell is that about? C’mon, there are other factors – like the Mets couldn’t buy a hit for the price of Citifield at key moments – like Game 162, for example. OK, maybe Manny would just roll over and choke like Wright, Beltran and Co. these last 2 years – and I’m sorry, they are my heroes and I know it sounds harsh, but at certain key moments, these are the tough facts. BUT, I’m guessing that Manny would provide the humungous offensive leadership that this team desperately, let me repeat DESPERATELY needs! Some of us have short memories. I won’t forget the great offensive moments – big 6 run innings or come-from-behind victories, but besides the bullpen meltdowns, let’s not forget when the Mets offense fell asleep or didn’t comeback at home in the bottom of the 9th after our bullpen gave it up. Manny couldn’t do it all, but he could do a lot.

fongulalou January 30, 2009 at 11:44 am

Amen!,Sure did seem that there were plenty
of times that the bullpen would blow a lead
after the SP was gone and once the game was tied , most of our lineup would get tight,
have bad ABs and not score runs.
That don’t happen w/Manny.He simply doesn’t
get tight or nervous and theres no doubt that
this rubs off on his teammates.

jgunzz23 January 30, 2009 at 12:15 pm

Signing Manny would take guts…
Met’s Ownership=No Guts
I don’t think its going to happen…

mdemaio January 30, 2009 at 12:43 pm

Another way to ask this question might be:

If exceeding the luxury tax is not an option and $20 million is an unchangeable reality, which action would you prefer -

Sign Abreu/Dunn and Perez
Sign Manny alone
Trade Delgado for cheap youth and sign Manny and Perez (moving Murphy to 1st)
Sign Manny and Pedro/Wolf and figure out another way to cut $4-5 million in payroll (trade, deferred salaries, etc.)
Sign Perez, take your chances with what you have in the OF, and save wiggle room for the trading deadline

I’m sure there are other ways to do it, and I’m not suggesting which to choose, but you’ve got to start with realities and options, with the bottom line being “which combination of guys gives you the best chance to win a World Series”?

mistermet January 30, 2009 at 12:53 pm

Matt,

Why do you say “The Wilpons, like most fans, don’t want to spend 20 million per season on Ramirez”

That is not true- the fans DO want to spend 20 or even 25 million on Ramirez.

And I’m sorry, but if they can only sign one of Manny Ramirez, the greatest right handed hitter in the past 50 years, or Oliver Perez, an erratic headcase- obviously you sign Manny. It’s not like Perez is a lockdown #2 starter.

zabado January 30, 2009 at 1:41 pm

I’d even buy something from Giuseppe Franco if would help bring my old amigo from Washington Heights to Queens. Let’s go Wilpons.

CaseStreet January 30, 2009 at 1:57 pm

I suspect that the Mets don’t want to rule Manny out cause, hey you never know what might happen with the market. Maybe his price drops, maybe they’ll be able to trade Delgado or Castillo.

So why say no when you don’t have to?

CaseStreet January 30, 2009 at 1:58 pm

kalihan, you can type with spaces or dashes between letters. you can also try to post one sentence at a time to see which sentence is being blocked.

MetsFan06 January 30, 2009 at 3:48 pm

If the Mets do not land Manny, they can still try Dunn. I’d sign Dunn for 3 years for 24mill or so. That would guarntee a power hitter in the Mets line-up other than Beltran, Wright and Delgado. I’d sign Manny for 3 years and 50-60 mill. I doubt that the money will work but I think it is close. The Mets still have to get a catcher, second baseman and two pitchers. Here’s what I think the Mets should get before Spring Training.

2B: Hudson
C: Pudge
LF: Dunn or Manny
P: Sheets and Perez

Kalihan42 January 30, 2009 at 10:41 am

Matt, can you please tell me what I am typing that puts me into moderation.

casey s. January 30, 2009 at 10:43 am

do you have any words that start with a-s-s?

a-s-sume is the major one that snags me.

Kalihan42 January 30, 2009 at 10:55 am

I was careful about that…are there any other words that flag?

kistics January 30, 2009 at 10:59 am

I think dick works..

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