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Buster Olney of ESPN.com believes there is ‘no chance’ the Mets signed Pedro Martinez.
In a post to their spring training blog, ESPN writes, “The source said that the reasoning is not financial, but based on concerns about Martinez’s pitching command.”
Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com said Martinez is still seeking a guaranteed contract, similar to what John Smoltz signed with the Red Sox, i.e., one year, $5.5 million guaranteed and another $5 million in incentives.
…i know the source told olney it’s about command, not cost… but, the Mets are clearly cutting costs, not expanding them…
…i mean, they could have waited to release Duaner Sanchez… but, instead, they chose to cut him today, and save $1.6 million…
…so, if they’re looking to save $1.6 million, at the expense of a relief pitcher, i’m thinking there is little chance they’d reach out and sign pedro, guarantee him a spot in the rotation, and spend $5 million…
…i actually think i would prefer Livan Hernandez as the team’s fifth starter, at this point, over pedro… because, i don’t expect my fifth starter to win a Cy Young… i want him to accumulate innings and help save my bullpen, and livan does that… pedro, god love him, does not… plus, he’s pedro, and i believe the team will benefit by keeping his dominant personality out of the clubhouse this time around…
…by the way, for similar financial reasons, i see no way Pudge Rodriguez is signed as well… i mean, if some team were to suddenly want to trade for Ramon Castro, or he got hurt, i bet pudge’s name resurfaces… but, as is, i just don’t see it…
Buster Olney once said that the Mets had traded Milledge for Mark Buehrle. I never believe him.
Best news since the Putz trade.
NO WAY !! I think that a dull Pedro is still better than an untried kid, however, at that price we may be better to roll the dice and take a chance. I woudl give Pedro a 1 year deal with an option for a second, IF he reaches certain “goals”. Otherwise let him walk away, like his buddy Manny. 2009, THERE WILL NEVER BE A BETTER TIME !!!
A “dull Pedro” gave us significantly fewer innings per start (109 in 20 starts, or 5.05) than Nelson Figueroa, Brandon Knight, Claudio Vargas, Tony Armas (!) and Jon Niese cumulatively averaged (93 in 17, or 5.47) in about the same sample size last year. He was LITERALLY “below replacement player” standards.
I love the guy and his mangoo trees. I wouldn’t pay him guaranteed money for that.
Give the ball to Niese, I says.
Absolutely sign Pedro. Livan and the rest of the 5th starter candidates have shown nothing. Pedro is another year removed from surgery and from his dad passing. Hes out to prove hes still got something left. Give him a low guaranteed/high incentive contract. If he sucks after a month cut him and give Garcia or Niese or Redding a shot.
Stop screwing around with Livan, Garcia and Redding and sign Pedro.
While I agree that they shouldn’t invest any substantial sum of $$ in Pedro, I also know that LIVAN HERNANDEZ IS AWFUL. This whole “innings eater” thing is getting beaten like a dead horse. He does not pitch quality innings, why on earth would we settle for him as the 5th just to save our now much-improved bullpen a few IP??
IF they can sign Pedro to some $2 million contract with $8 million in incentives, then do it. I’m not sure why Cerrone doesn’t want his ‘personality’ in the clubhouse anymore – you can twist it into the opposite spectrum and say his jovial attitude and propensity to dance all the time would do wonders for this team.
There’s this stigma on here that makes no sense, that because Pedro “let us all down” these last few years, we should not give him a chance. That he “stole” money from the Mets. This is nonsense!! If anyone actually thought that Pedro would be his hall-of-fame self 4 years ago when he signed the deal, then I’d have to question your intelligence. It was obvious his performance was in sharp decline. He stole nothing; he merely signed his name on the contract offered to him. And I don’t regret seeing that dominant first year he had followed by the expected rash of injuries.
Pedro has the highest ceiling to perform well THIS YEAR as the team’s 5th starter out of any of these bums that are currently in consideration. If he required more than #3 mill in guaranteed money, forget about it, but if you can get him cheap – THEN GET HIM!!!
How come when I read the title for this Pedro blog/article, the first thought that came to mind was Vince McMahon? LOL.
“No Chaaance… That’s what you got”
hahahahaha! Someone gets it! lol
Duaner Sanchez…YOU”RE FIIIIRRREDDDD!!!
Maybe this “cost cutting” will force Minaya to make some decent personnel decisions.
I am baffled at this cost stinginess. I am absolutely baffled. Forget about Pedro, but Ivan Rodriguez and Will Ohman can definitely fit on this team.
Sterling Mets enterprises and the Wilpons themselves had something like 13 separate investments with Bernie Madoff. Add to that the current problems with Citi and it’s pretty easy to see the need for frugality. They simply can’t afford to do much more right now.
You mean the NY METS lied to us when they said Madoff haOULD NOT LIE/
Where exactly do Pudge and Ohman fit? 4th C and 8th RP?
If you add Pudge, you have to move Castro (and look at the numbers– Pudge isn’t much of an upgrade AT ALL these days). If you add Ohman on a major-league deal, you’re guaranteeing losing the two Rule 5 guys, and you’ll probably have to move or lose Stokes and a couple of others (out of options).
Why don’t the Mets just trade away everyone that makes over 5 million dollars? Why don’t they just have a 30 million dollar payroll. The Mets front office act like they are Marlins.
This organization makes a TON of money, don’t let the way they operate fool you.
You are aware that we will have a 140-million-plus payroll, right? And that is significantly more than the Marlins will spend, right?
Hey, facts are stupid things!
Facts are stupid when they’re cherry picked or spun. It is always best to include revenue sources when evaluating payroll and deciding whether or not an owner is as cheap as Mr. Drysdale of The Beverly Hillbillies.
As Xavier22 pointed out Sterling Mets enterprises and the Wilpons themselves had something like 13 separate investments with Bernie Madoff and when you consider that the economy will drive down secondary sources of revenue it should be apparent that the Wilpons might be more inflexible in deciding whether or not to exceed their budget than in past years.
Really Ohman.
Buster Olney of ESPN.com believes there is ‘no chance’ the Mets signed Pedro Martinez”
if it wasn’t someone from ESPN i’d say THANK GOD, but i’m very questionable of their sources..
I’m almost positive that there is ‘no chance’ the Mets haven’t ’signed’ Pedro. Y’know… unless it’s, like a SECRET signing. (Shhh… we have a Dominican hero!)
A piece as small as Ohman can play a major, major factor on this team.
Instead Ron Villone will be in our pen?
There’s no excuse! I don’t care that they have such a high payroll, they are a New York baseball team with a new stadium about to open a new stadium in a month. For them to not have a definate #5 pitcher, and have such a horrible catcher in schneider (the guy just flat out can’t hit), with Pudge sitting there to be taken, and a bullpen that could use another lefty arm with 3 now 2 good lefies waiting is just absurd. They let Orlando Hudson sign for peanuts while they have a trmendous liability at second. They could hav signed Garland or another guy for the # 5 spot or traded for Marquis. Lets not screw the pootch on Pudge. Nobody knows how good he will be, but he has had a good offensive career and was hitting good last year before the trade.
Pudge at this point in his career is horrendous and will only continue to decline at his age. Wake up people!!! Take a good look at his stellar numbers from last year and please stop begging that we sign him. He’s done!!!
Brian Schneider couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag, and castro is always hurt. We have all this money to spend and just cut another 1.6 mil, why not take a chance on a guy trying to prove himself? Clearly Mets fans still think the Mets have got alot of holes to fill.
How is Pudge an upgrade over Schnieder at this point in his career?? Schnieder had 3 more RBIs than him in 60 less ABs. Please go check some numbers out before you come on here whining.
Pudge was batting 295. before he was traded to the Yankees. He had a rough second half. I’m not saying he’s the key, but I think he’s worth the gamble. Stats are great, but my eyes work to and I watched Schneider struggle time after time at the plate. His numbers are also a little bit scewed seing as he went on a tear for a week in which he hit almost half of his hr’s.
Pudge is also a leader and would fit in well with Delgado and Beltran his fellow Puerto Ricans. I love the intensity he’s showing in the WBC. He looks like a man who really wants a second shot. Yeah stats are nice..but stats don’t tell the whole story.
Is it me or would Pudge be a definite defensive upgrade to Schneider/ We were sold a horrible bill of goods with Schneider. We need someone else besides Castro who gets injured before he can make a contribution
Pudge is a hell of a leader, as evidenced by all his years as union rep for the Rangers, Tigers and Marlins, his record of volunteering to speak to the press, and all those championship rings.
(Oh, wait… oh, wait… and… yep, three for three.)
Stats do tell a good amount of the story, if you’re looking at the right ones.
Those stats will tell you that the defensive upgrade you see with Pudge (and Schneider, for that matter) over Castro isn’t as significant as you’d think, and doesn’t make up for the diminishment in bat skills.
Empty .290s aside, Pudge isn’t nearly the offensive player he once was– his walk rate is PLUNGING (hovering around 4-5 percent; ML-average is 8-9 percent; his OBP has been sub-.300 in 3 of the last 4 years). His OPS over the last 4 years is a shade below the most negative 2009 (CHONE, ZIPS, etc.) projections for Tatis and Murphy, and his SLG hasn’t topped Castro’s in that same time frame.
And we want to pay a guaranteed 2 mil for this? (And no guarantee of health besides?)
can i just say that the way this was tweeted was terrifying:
Buster says ‘No Chance,’ the Mets sign Pedro Martinez, Cerrone says, ‘Good.’
i read it and thought the mets had signed pedro. i nearly wept
Its amazing how quickly everyone forgot that Pedro threw batting practice for us last year. I love the guy, but something about the 19 HRs in 100 innings last year tells me he just doesn’t have it anymore. Can everyone just relax and let the competition between Livan, Garcia, and Redding work itself out. It’s only March 10th for crying out loud.
Matt, I am in agreement with you.
The last two seasons, we have not had a capable 5th starter, and when you lose out on October by a game each year, it is pretty important. Obviously Livan will not be the second coming of Greg Maddux, but we don’t need that. Get a guy who can throw 180-220 innings close to league average, and that will be fine. The offense and bullpen should be strong enough to overcome it.
Hernandex didn’t have his best year last season, b ut his struggles were somewhat overstated….As a breaking ball pitcher, he was set up for failure in Denver, and if you take out his line with the Rockies, Livan put up a 5.48era…Make adjustments for a move to the NL, artificial turf to grass, and hitters park to pitchers park, and an era of 4.80 isn’t out of the question. Combine that with the fact that the guy will likely give you close 200ip, and good control (less than 2BB/9 in Minnesota), and you’ve got a pretty reliable back end option, It isn’t flashy by any means, but it is workable. He’ll likely flirt with a .500 record, but equally likely to win 10+ games.
At the end of the day, not a bad option for the spot.
Matt, I am in agreement with you.
The last two seasons, we have not had a capable 5th starter, and when you lose out on October by a game each year, it is pretty important. Obviously Livan will not be the second coming of Seaver, but we don’t need that. Get a guy who can throw 180-220 innings close to league average, and that will be fine. The offense and bullpen should be strong enough to overcome it.
Livan didn’t have his best year last season, but his struggles were somewhat overstated….As a breaking ball pitcher, he was set up for failure in Denver, and if you take out his line with the Rockies, Livan put up a 5.48era…Make adjustments for a move to the NL, artificial turf to grass, and hitters park to pitchers park, and an era of 4.80 isn’t out of the question. Combine that with the fact that the guy will likely give you close 200ip, and good control (less than 2BB/9 in Minnesota), and you’ve got a pretty reliable back end option, It isn’t flashy by any means, but it is workable. He’ll likely flirt with a .500 record, but equally likely to win 10+ games.
At the end of the day, not a bad option for the spot.
Sorry for what will be a triple post b/c of the moderation…
Matt, I am in agreement with you.
The last two seasons, we have not had a capable 5th starter, and when you lose out on October by a game each year, it is pretty important. Obviously Livan will not be the second coming of Seaver, but we don’t need that. Get a guy who can throw 180-220 innings close to league average, and that will be fine. The offense and bullpen should be strong enough to overcome it.
Livan didn’t have his best year last season, but his struggles were somewhat overstated….As a breaking ball pitcher, he was set up for failure in Denver, and if you take out his line with the Rockies, Livan put up a 5.48era…Make adjustments for a move to the NL, artificial turf to gra-ss, and hitters park to pitchers park, and an era of 4.80 isn’t out of the question. Combine that with the fact that the guy will likely give you close 200ip, and good control (less than 2BB/9 in Minnesota), and you’ve got a pretty reliable back end option, It isn’t flashy by any means, but it is workable. He’ll likely flirt with a .500 record, but equally likely to win 10+ games.
At the end of the day, not a bad option for the spot.
He’s also likely to get lit up on a daily basis. Livan Hernandez hasn’t been good since ‘03 but let’s throw him out ther every 5 days… at least he’ll eat innings (as well as anything else put in front of his face)
Again – I’m writing that on the basis that he can maintain a 4.8era, which I believe he can.
Also, realize that Livan is in there as a #5 starter…The criteria which defines a good performance from a top of the rotation starter is much different than that of a #5 starter.
As recently as 2004, Hernandez had a good season for a mid-rotation guy.
However, assuming he can perform close to league average, then he will do well as a 5th starter.
Again – I’m writing that on the basis that he can maintain a 4.8era, which I believe he can.
Also, realize that Livan is in there as a #5 starter…The criteria which defines a good performance from a top of the rotation starter is much different than that of a #5 starter.
As recently as 2004, Hernandez had a good season for a mid-rotation guy.
However, as-suming he can perform close to league average, then he will do well as a 5th starter.
Nice, I was trying to think of a solid joke with the “innings eater” and “Livan Hernandez is very fat” ideas but you did it well!
If the Astros haven’t already signed Pudge, why would anyone else be knocking on his door?
Well if Busted Olney said it then I’m sure Pedro will be in a Mets uniform by the end of the week
honestly stop with Pedro. This tema needs a face lift……..I am fine with Redding and if they want Livan can eat some innings and Redding can be the long man
Garcia does’nt look ready and Niese will go to AAA not because I don’t think he deserves the spot but because they will go with depth first.
Looks like Stokes is in for Sanchez.
I would be ok with a lefty signed too but honestly I think it’s Either Redding as the long man or Villone will get that last spot as a 2nd lefty
Re: Sanchez…
I think Omar made the decision now to release Duanar so he has the opportunity to try with another team.
If they wait, other roster spots will be filled…
If they knew he wasnt gonna make it why wait? Its being nice to the player.
well they just shed a good amount of money, they better sign somebody.
You don’t HAVE to spend it now. Depends… if Ohman’s headed elsewhere, or management decides they like the BP as is, then you bank it. In June/July, it’s potential trade room.
why is Beimel and Ohman still available anyway if they are good Lefties?
That puzzles me as well. Call it the economy call it whatever you want. Still, I think these guys are better than taking chances with Stokes and young pitchers for 3 spots.
Beimels numbers are affected a lot because of where he pitched, he’s really not as good as his numbers. Ohman’s probably better but outside of last year he’s never been able to pitch to both sides of the plate.
Plus teams are realizing you can find one out guys for next to nothing just by raiding minor league fodder. Why pay 3 million for a guy who can only pitch to lefties when you can probably find one for league minimum?
Why pay? Because you can. Its about time the Mets took that mentality. They also let Reyes sign with the Cards and his numbers are very good. It just annoys me to see the Mets hesitant to sign guys to 1 year deald that they could use.
The mets can’t because the wilpons don’t want to go over the luxury tax threshold and we’re right at it right now.
And why overspend for no reason? When the mets signed Redding and Cora for 2.5 mil eac no one had an issue with overspending a little. A few weeks/months later though when that same 5 million, could have gotten you Abreu, who we suddenly couldn’t afford or when for 2.5 million you could have gotten Counsell AND Eric Hinske I bet everyone wished they hadn’t overspent just because they could? If you can get the same production and save money that can be used else where why overpay? That’s just bad buisness.
Exactly, Gina.
The reason, Murph, that we won in 2006 going away, while things went south twice in a row in 2007/2008? It wasn’t Beltran/Reyes/Wright/Delgado, and the ‘pen had a lot to do with it… but speaking more broadly, it’s that the marginal guys– Duaner, Heilman, Bradford, Valentin, Endy– contributed, and contributed cheaply. Those same guys (or their equivalents) were more expensive and less efficient in the last two years… with guaranteed million-dollar contracts, they sucked up money that could have been used to finagle a better option than LimaTime or Luis Ayala once sh*t hit the fan in 2007 and 2008.
It’s those guys on the edges– with their cheap WARP– that make the difference between an 85-win season and a 90-win season.
I’m not going to argue with that, I am just saying that its not like Beimal or Ohman and at Reyes(Now a Cardinal) want 10 mil a year. I’m not saying become the Yankees, but when you can use bullpen help, particularly a lefty and you got two good releivers )and at one time 3) still available you sign one. You cannot be a successfull new york baseball team with a new stadium and refuse to pay 3 mil on something that would help the team. Not with the amount of money I (and my fellow mets fans) am paying for tickets. Don’t tell me the Mets can’t afford it. This is why its so great to be a NY team, you have all this revenue about to come in even during an economic crisis.
No offense gbaked but teams don’t make moves to “help” a player when it could hurt their own team.
This was all about the money. If you took the money out of the situation there is no way the Mets wouldn’;t have held onto Sanchez till the end of spring training to see if he regains some of his velocity. It would benefit the team to see if he could get some of his past success back.
Actually, a lot of teams try to do right by the player. Its good business practice.
I think it’s some of both. More about money, sure. But to hold onto him only to release him in 3 weeks when many rosters are set does him a disservice, one that other players would notice and the players association would remember. No need to upset them when the handwriting is already on the wall anyway. All signs pointed to the eventual release, better for all parties to do it now, not just the team’s wallet.
I think it’s some of both. More about money, sure. But to hold onto him only to release him in 3 weeks when many rosters are set does him a disservice, one that other players would notice and the players a$$ociation would remember. No need to upset them when the handwriting is already on the wall anyway. All signs pointed to the eventual release, better for all parties to do it now, not just the team’s wallet.
If you can do things humanely or with cruelty, and it doesn’t cost you anything– or much– to do things humanely, then it just makes business sense.
(Bobby V was bitter for YEARS about the way he was dumped by the Grant regime in 1977… and it delayed his coming here by a few years.)
Livan may give 200 innings but they’re going to be 200 pretty bad ones. I think some sort of combination of Pedro and Niese would be more productive, or just a productive.
Also I wouldn’t mind them bringing in Pudge because I think he’d be an upgrade over Schneider. But obviously unless he’s signing for peanuts I’m not sure the upgrade would be worth the money spent.
Here’s the issue with Pedro. Even when healthy the guy can’t pitch more than 6 innings. Compund this with Oliver Perez and John Maine who rarely sniff the 7th inning and you’re once again setting yourself up to put a huge burden on the bullpen, exhausting them by the all-star break.
Livan or Redding are my favorites as of today, not because they have the highest upside, but because they can pitch 7 innings on a fairly consistent basis.
Whoa, Whoa, Whoa,
This is getting ridiculous
NOW wait a second ok . . . Manny was big money and possible problem in the clubhouse come contract time. OK So we give a kid like Murphy a chance . . thats cool he’s blue collar guy and he’s got the hunger, that helps a team OK
Matt you are way off about Pedro . Unless their is something you know that we don’t, like he was annoying in the clubhouse or egotistical, which I don’t think he was.
Beltran said he was upset that Pedro was leaving.
He’s the man, fun, loosens a new york clubhouse, supersmart pitcher.
C/Mon this is getting ridiculous, Omar fred and Jeff lets go here, we want to win.
Are we really comparing Livan and Pedro
WAKE UP AND GET PEDRO. THIS IS BECOMING A JOKE, I FEEL LIKE THE ROYALS. THIS IS NY CITY.
If theres a cheap short term opportunutiy with a backup plan then take it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I hear you man! The Mets have got to start acting like they are a New York team witha New Stadium. Great they have a payroll. But whats the point of being a big market money making machine when you’re not gonna abuse your power. The Mets are acting like the guy with the high stack in poker that just sits there and nurses his chips. You’ve got extra money, take some gambles! Throw some dough around even if you don’t necessarily have to.
WAKE UP AND GET PEDRO. THIS IS BECOMING A JOKE, I FEEL LIKE THE ROYALS. THIS IS NY CITY.
Quoting someone from this morning “Pedro is the new Manny”
I wouldn’t quite say that…Pedro isn’t going to turn this team overnight into the WS favorites. I don’t even care if the Mets sign Pedro. I just want to see them adress some concerns. Lets see them opent he wallet a little and sign a right handed hitter who can come off the bench, and lets see tem at least try to sign a lefty releiver.
wouldn’t quite say that…Pedro isn’t going to turn this team overnight into the WS favorites.
It was just a joke…… Pedro is shot!
I just want to see them adress some concerns. Lets see them opent he wallet a little and sign a right handed hitter who can come off the bench, and lets see tem at least try to sign a lefty releiver.
I agree but, you my friend will be cruxified here for even attempting to bring up “some concerns”…… Most people here think the team is perfect as it is.
I see where you’re coming from, mrBill, but what righty FA bat fits, and would be a significant upgrade over Tatis/Kielty coming off the bench?
Only guys out there now:
Alou (great fit, but not interested in a P/T role)
Durham (could be?)
Easley
Grudzielanek (no thanks)
Loduca (double no thanks)
Frank Thomas (HMM…)
Unfortunately Leiter my choice is no longer an option. We can only hope these guys work out.
My point is that the offense needed improvement and the mets did nothing about it. As much as I want them to do well, I cannot say the team is very good. Too many question marks.
its all perspective…
you say just go spend the money, but its not you spending it. Its Jeff Wilpon and the NY Mets. The same group that was taken for a ton of money last year, improved their team in the most major areas, and have one of the largest payrolls in the game. Because its not your money, you cant just say spend spend spend.
kinda like how since I am not a raving crazy person, i cant tell you to get real and stop whining.
Castro will get hurt. Its only a matter of time.
and Matt brings up a strong point about the 5th starter.. they dont have to go out there and win 15 games (or even 10 for that matter), just eat innings
but if the pitcher is awful (like hernandez is) what’s the point of eating innings when we’re down 12-5 in the 6th?
Agreed. Although I don’t think Livan will be horrible, if he throws 7+ innings a game and gives up 5+ runs or something in those games how are we better off than with someone who would throw 5-6 and give up 1-2 runs?
I’m a-s-s uming that you are talking about Pedro in the latter part of your post.
IF our 5th starter gives up 1-2 runs in 5-6 innings, that’s not a 5th starter. Pedro can do that IF he stays healthy, but that’s a BIG IF.
The issue is not w hat Pedro can do in a singular game, but rather over the course of a season…There is no evidence to suggest he is durable enough to make so many as 20 starts….The Mets relied on Pedro last year, and he couldn’t get it together at all. I’d rather see someone that they can count on to show up and pitch decently enough against the other teams’ 5th starter.
I actually didn’t think through my example enough I don’t think 1-2 runs in 5 innings is neccessarily what to expect from Pedro. But I would expect to be in a better position to win the game through 5 innings with Pedro than through 5 innings with Hernandez, let alone 7 innings.
Also ravi my point was that a combination of 200 innings from Pedro/Redding/Niese is more valuable than 200 just from Livan, or Livan/Redding/Niese.
Thats assuming the upside of both, Gina. Plus you aren’t taking into account easing the workload on the pen…From what we have seen, its unrealistic to expect Pedro to go more than 5/6 innings, and giving up less than 3 runs…If he returned to the Mets this season, I’d even expect him to get worse – his stuff is hittable, and it becomes easier for the competition the more they see him. When Pedro starts, you are talking about 4-5 innings from your pen. This would be even worse on days when Maine/Perez struggle as you now have a pen that has been taxed over 2-3 days.
In the case of Livan, you can reasonably expect him to go roughly 7ish innings, giving up 4-5 runs…Against another teams ace, that is bad, but against their #5, the Mets have enough offense to at least remain competitive in that circumstance. Between Livan and Johan, you’ve got 2 games in a row where you have a good shot to rest the bullpen. Over the past 2 seasons, we have seen the unfortunate effects of an overworked bullpen.
I know you included Niese, but I just don’t know what to expect from him. Though he did well in AAA, i think he needs more seasoning…This team cannot afford another 2007, in which the 5th guy doesn’t win a game until September (in that case, it was Pelf). This will be a very close divisional race, and I think that the Mets need to learn from their mistakes in prior seasons.
Thats as-suming the upside of both, Gina. Plus you aren’t taking into account easing the workload on the pen…From what we have seen, its unrealistic to expect Pedro to go more than 5/6 innings, and giving up less than 3 runs…If he returned to the Mets this season, I’d even expect him to get worse – his stuff is hittable, and it becomes easier for the competition the more they see him. When Pedro starts, you are talking about 4-5 innings from your pen. This would be even worse on days when Maine/Perez struggle as you now have a pen that has been taxed over 2-3 days.
In the case of Livan, you can reasonably expect him to go roughly 7ish innings, giving up 4-5 runs…Against another teams ace, that is bad, but against their #5, the Mets have enough offense to at least remain competitive in that circumstance. Between Livan and Johan, you’ve got 2 games in a row where you have a good shot to rest the bullpen. Over the past 2 seasons, we have seen the unfortunate effects of an overworked bullpen.
I know you included Niese, but I just don’t know what to expect from him. Though he did well in AAA, i think he needs more seasoning…This team cannot afford another 2007, in which the 5th guy doesn’t win a game until September (in that case, it was Pelf). This will be a very close divisional race, and I think that the Mets need to learn from their mistakes in prior seasons.
Re: 200 combined versu 200 from one of Niese/Livan/Redding/Garcia…
You can’t cherry-pick the good starts. Odds are, you’re getting a representative slice of good/bad. This works better if you’ve got a host of high-upside/limited-durability types like Harden/Sheets/Prior, or a number of young guys whose IP you’re monitoring.
I’m not sure what cherry picking good starts has to do with it. Like you said odds are you’ll get combined good/bad. I’m saying that the good/bad we could get from all 3 of them probably is just as good as tthe good bad we’ll get from Livan over 200 innings. Even if Redding’s, just for example, portion is terrible I doubt it would be worse than the worst starts you’d get from just Livan over 200 innings.
agree 100% about castro by the way. robinson cancel with have more ABs than castro this season
The author wants Livan Hernandez who pitched to about a 6 ERA to be the Mets starter. Really a baseball smart decision. He’ll piutch forever and lose lose lose.
LET’S GO DR TEAM!!!!
PAYBACK TIME…
who’s pitching for DR today and who are they playing?
Not sure who is pitching, but they are playing the Netherlands again….Possible that Pedro goes today…
If so, I’ll pay attention but doubtful. he went 3 innings (40 pitches) on saturday
Here’s the real question that should be asked in analyzing this:
Is the 5-6 inning by Pedro going to be better or worse than Livan’s and is Livan’s last 1-2 innings going to be as good as or worse than the bullpen?
If Pedro can pitch more effective innings (even if less of them) than Livan and the bullpen is no worse than Livan would do, you sign Pedro. With Livan, the mere fact he’s an inning-eater doesn’t mean effective innings. If he gives up 7 runs in 8 IP, it really doesn’t do the team any good. I’d rather take a Pedro with 3 ERs in 5-6 innings as opposed to 5 ERs in 7-8 IP from Livan. Simple as that. It’s all about effectiveness.
‘Is the 5-6 inning by Pedro going to be better or worse than Livan’s and is Livan’s last 1-2 innings going to be as good as or worse than the bullpen?’
The answer is better.
The answer is: MARGINALLY better.
Pedro last year: 5.61 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 75 ERA+, 5.05 IP/start
Livan last year: 6.09 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 69 ERA+, 5.9 IP/start (first half numbers were virtually identical to Pedro’s for the year, over slightly more starts)
And also, with the #5 guy, you don’t care as much about IP since the next guy in the turn is Johan and you expect 7 innings from him everytime out.
You need to factor in health issue. Livan for 200 IPs OR Pedro/Redding/Niese for 200 IPs??
If it’s Pedro vs Livan, I’d take Pedro. But Pedro probably only pitches 100 innings and rest are by Redding/Niese/etc…
If we go with Livan, he’s reliable, though he will give up some runs, I still think he’ll keep the team in the game more often than the other combo.
I’ll take the Pedro/Redding tag team any day of the week over Livan
If Pedro’s 100 more effective Innings come before August, I’ll take Pedro. At that point, Niese could be ready or we realized Redding wasn’t as bad as he was against Michigan, or at worst, we could go the trade route for a #5 without giving up too much. And who knows, maybe Livan would still be in our minors by then.
Pedro Martinez 2008:
5.61 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 19 HRs in 109 innings
Am I taking crazy pills, or has everybody magically forgotten that the almighty Pedro was HORRIBLE last year? Why would we want him back at all?
Livan Hernandez 2008:
6.05 ERA (8.03 in the NL by the way), 1.67 WHIP, 25 HRs in 180 innings
Right. But Livan is on a minor league deal, and Pedro wants over 5 million plus incentives
And…
Tim Redding:
4.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Bigpelf,
I want to thank you for your info this morning. BUT, Livan pitched with Rockies for 3 games.
5.48 ERA with Twins.
in ‘07, he went 4.93 ERA with DBacks 204 IPs
no problem with the password thing BUT
you are incorrect. with the rockies Livan pitched 8 games and 40 innings (real innings eater, huh?) to the tune of:
58 H, 7 HR, 14 BB, 13 K, 1.79 WHIP
I’m pretty sure I can do better than that
By the way those 8 games were against the following:
Giants – 3
Padres – 2
Braves
Reds
Nationals
Not exactly offensive powerhouses here
Ok, Livan is garbage, everyone knows that. But so is Pedro…. Paying $5 million for someone who’s less than marginably better is just dumb..
Agree 100%, Livan is garbage. and so is Freddy Garcia. so let garcia pitch his way off the team by continuing to do what he’s doing, then release him and take that same incentive laden contract and give it to Pedro with slightly more guaranteed…. I know Kenny Rosenthal is reporting Pedro wants 5M+ guaranteed but that means absolutely nothing to me.
no problem BUT you are incorrect. with the rockies Livan pitched 8 games and 40 innings (real innings eater, huh?) to the tune of:
58 H, 7 HR, 14 BB, 13 K, 1.79 WHIP
I’m pretty sure I can do better than that
At least Livan will pitch like garbage for 9 innings while Pedro will pitch like garbage for 5 and then kill your bullpen.
Its almost unfair to include Livan’s Denver stats there…as a guy who relies on the breaking ball, he was almost doomed for failure…Consider his stats with the Twins:
5.48era, 1.63WHIP, 18 HR’s, 139.2 IP.
They are all pretty comparable, but its worth mentioning that Livan had a slightly better ERA/WHIP/HRA than Pedro, while pitching in the AL in a Hitters park….All just proves my point.
Completely correct as usual Sylar, and let us also remember that Pedro has had significant injuries for the last 3 years.
No thanks.
If he took the same minors deal as Livan, Omar could (and would probably) sign Pedro in a heartbeat. He won’t, so Omar won’t.
Pedro shut down after 2005….
We are taking about the 5th starter right?
The top 4 are fine with Santana, Pelfrey, Perez and Maine. They can all go 7 most times out and then Putz and Rodriquez
So with that the 5th starter needs to go say 5 innings and 6 would be fantastic
Redding can do that and he can be the long man too. Livan can eat innings
Garcia needs to get better and Niese is a great young call up later on
no Pedro needed. It’s Spring training people
All this assumes that Pelf, Ollie and Maine will maintain production levels, raise production levels and stay healthy/raise production levels, respectively.
I’m starting to think I may go bankrupt this year buying our new microbrews to dull the pain.
All this presumes that Pelf, Ollie and Maine will (respectively) maintain established high production levels, raise/stabilize inconsistent production levels, and stay healthy/raise-and-stabilize inconsistent production levels… all in the same year.
I’m starting to think I may go bankrupt this year buying our new CitiField microbrews to dull the pain.
Perez and Maine can go 7? What Perez and Maine have you been watching? Santana is pretty much a sure thing. Perez is consistent in an odd way, we know he’ll probably be all over the place from start to start but over the course of the season he’ll probably trend to the similar numbers are last year, but more than likely he’s not going to be giving us 7 innings consistently.
Maine is a huge question mark since he has such a short major league track record, and half of it is with the bone spur last year. Hopefully he’s a better pitcher than that but there’s really no way of knowing for sure what to expect from him.
Same thing with Pelfrey kind of. He only has one ml season under his belt so there’s no way to say for sure if what we saw last year we can expect this year, and there’s no way of knowing what kind of affect, if any, the huge inning increase from 07 to 08 will have on him.
Reyes is at short. Hanley is the DH Ortiz plays first. This gives the DR team the best chance to win and is what Alou should have done in game #1.
Unfortunately this game is on the MLB network and I don’t get it on my Time Warner basic tier. Anyone get the MLB network on a basic (not premium) tier for free?
I am so annoyed with Omar. We have a competition of bad pitchers going for the 5 spot, only one left handed reliever, a huge question mark in LF, an old and out of shape 2B, and two starters (Maine and Perez) that can’t be relied on.
Guys this shouldn’t be a question of money but a question of worth.
Why sign a guy who can’t pitch more than 6 innings a game? The Mets the past two years have completely over-used their bullpen because guys like Ollie, Maine, and Pedro are 6 inning pitchers.
You have to have a guy at the 5 spot who can eat innings and take the strain off of the bullpen. Pedro is not that guy.
Give Tim Redding a chance to adjust.
I agree with Matt about all the negative surrounding pedro, but i’m watching the WBC and his fastball has life and his change up looks vintage…or maybe it just seems that way b/c of he’s facing the netherlands.
if he doesn’t get the smoltz like contract, makes sense to offer the guy a Freddie garcia type contract.
He’s already said he’s not signing a minor-league deal, and intimated he wouldn’t sign an incentive-loaded value-deal a la Gl*vine ($1 mil) in the same News article in which he said the Mets would have to call him if they wanted him.
Here, I’ll start it off
Garcia: NO
Livan: NO
Redding: NO
Niese: YES
Pedro: YES
I think Niese will win the job because the other three just stink. Though oyu got to give Redding some respect since he won 10 games playing for the worst team in the league but still, he stinks. I think the only possible things that can happen for the Mets in the future (in the 2009 season) is sign Pudge and Pedro.
I’ll rate the Mets pitching staff
Santana: 10.0
Pelfrey: 6.5
Maine: 6.5
Perez: 6.5
Garcia/Livan/Redding/Niese: 2.5
Total: 32
Santana: 18-7 2.72
Pelfrey: 13-9 4.18
Maine: 15-8 3.94
Perez: 14-10 4.12
5th starter: 11-10 4.72
I cannot for the life of me understand this argument that Livan is valuable as an innings eater. If he pitches 6 or 7 innings that suck, than who cares if he saved the bullpen – he’s given up 6 runs and we’re not gonna win the game.
I understand the 5th starter doesn’t need to be a Cy Young candidate, but innings don’t mean squat when they’re crap innings.