Buzz: The Value of Matt Holliday

May 1, 2009 at 12:27 pm · 57 comments

by Matthew Cerrone

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com wonders how the A’s will handle OF Matt Holliday, who hit his first home run of the season last night.

The popular belief is Oakland acquired Holliday in the off-season with the intention of either keeping him to contend in 2009, or trading him at the deadline in July.

Holliday is eligible to be a free agent at the end of this season, and is batting .236 with 11 extra base hits in the 165 at bats since September 1 of last season.

Stark quotes a league executive who believes Holliday’s price will continue to drop, be it as a free agent, or in a trade, with every day that goes by in which he does not turn his season around.

“He’s a guy who has already turned down $86 million over four years, and now he’s going to have to take a one-year deal,” the same executive told Stark.  “I just don’t see what team would be willing to open its wallet and commit to a guy who has just come out of Coors Field and now, in his first year out of Coors, he does this.”

Stark also writes about the better-than-expected attendance in MLB, the Royals effort to trade for a bat, and whether Zach Greinke can be had, the Marlins search for bullpen help, and the list of potential arms who could be available.

{ 57 comments }

NYMETSFAN718 May 1, 2009 at 12:32 pm

His value depends on what type of numbers he can put up away from Coors.

Hes not off to a good start

.240/.288 wont cut it

dominicanboy08 May 1, 2009 at 12:32 pm

I would trade evans and niese for holliday. no more than that. he is not worth more than that.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 12:34 pm

Ha – I would do that in a second. No way Oakland does though. Even if the power numbers go down some the guy is still going to hit for good average and drive in a lot of runs.

Dirtysanchez May 1, 2009 at 12:35 pm

agreed…i dont think that would work on playstation loll

dominicanboy08 May 1, 2009 at 12:35 pm

umm… you want to give up more than that for a 3 month rental?

Dirtysanchez May 1, 2009 at 12:37 pm

its not about who we woudl give up its about what woudl get the job done for a trade of holliday…what he is saying is that would not get bean to pick up the fone..what would however is probabably too expensive for the mets(talent wise)

dominicanboy08 May 1, 2009 at 12:40 pm

holliday has been an avg player way from coors field, thats my worry.

Dirtysanchez May 1, 2009 at 12:45 pm

i agree
i just hope the mets realize this and do not trade half the farm for him..which is probably what beane wants for holliday.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 12:50 pm

I dunno on this one. I think this guy is going to come back to form. Yes the numbers may have been somewhat inflated at Coors, but remember, they have been using the humidor for some time now.

Either way, like I said above even if the power numbers decrease he is stil a heck of a hitter. Line drives aren’t affected by Coors Field.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 12:48 pm

Dboy – if they were to trade for him, I don’t think it would be for just 3 months. I think it would have to be long term. Either way, Oakland would just as soon keep him for Niese and Evans.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 12:33 pm

Killing my ability to assemble my fantasy lineup for total domination.

Dirtysanchez May 1, 2009 at 12:36 pm

espn commercial lol nice.

derxmasta May 1, 2009 at 12:33 pm

but whats his clutch factor

Dirtysanchez May 1, 2009 at 12:34 pm

Well it would depend on where they are at adn how matt stats look at the time of the deadline..i doubt thought that the mets will make a run for this guy….besides, bean is notorious for trying to get everything in a trade for a oakland player…i dont advise the mets play that little game.

911nafstem May 1, 2009 at 12:37 pm

If the Royals ever got rid of Greinke the team should just fold. That would be a joke.

There's Always '10 May 1, 2009 at 12:38 pm

the only pieces the mets need to bring in at this point are starting pitchers. we either need another front end starter, or two mid-level starters (2/3).

derxmasta May 1, 2009 at 12:38 pm

i would take holliday over murphy/sheff/tatis
in our LF any day

There's Always '10 May 1, 2009 at 12:40 pm

Citi Field certainly isn’t a power hitter’s park either. I think he would thrive at Yankee Stadium. You know he’ll be out there later this year. That team doesn’t stop.

derxmasta May 1, 2009 at 12:42 pm

he would thrive in cbp also
but hopefully the mets can persuade him to come to flushing.

There's Always '10 May 1, 2009 at 12:45 pm

Don’t really want him in Flushing. If they were going to overpay for a left fielder that wasn’t great at fielding his position, but could hit – they should have signed Manny. Don’t think he’ll end up in Philly. They signed Ibanez for three years and Jayson Werth is a fan favorite.

derxmasta May 1, 2009 at 12:49 pm

i believe holliday is a lot younger
and alot of ball left in him
while manny is… manny

There's Always '10 May 1, 2009 at 12:51 pm

Agreed. He has a lot of ball left in him. However, Manny is light years better than Holliday. I’d rather give three years to Manny than 6 or 7 to Holliday, especially when taking into account that he’s a 25HR hitter at Citi Field.

DownNDirtyJohan May 1, 2009 at 12:40 pm

If he can’t get his power numbers in Oakland, he won’t get anything in Citifield

derxmasta May 1, 2009 at 12:41 pm

he would be a great doubles/triples hitter
he is a great defender.
we dont NEED a hr every time up

BillyDeeWilliamss May 1, 2009 at 12:42 pm

Cool that I spent all of yesterday and this morning awaiting moderation for my comments.

Had to re-register. Not really sure why that all happened.

Wanny2 May 1, 2009 at 12:47 pm

Probably because you made the mistake of not using the F word all over the place the other day.

ohboy May 1, 2009 at 12:47 pm

Not everyone appreciates the smooth, silky taste of a Colt 45 I guess…

dominicanboy08 May 1, 2009 at 12:43 pm

I would rather have halladay than holliday. I’ll give up our entire farm to have the best two pitchers in baseball. but

dominicanboy08 May 1, 2009 at 12:44 pm

..I know it wont happen.

NYMETSFAN718 May 1, 2009 at 1:20 pm

strangers things have happend…

im sure ppl said that bout santana too.

Wanny2 May 1, 2009 at 12:46 pm

Holliday’s road stats: .279 .346 .452 are not much more than okay. However, there was a recent study that showed that they vastly improved as the season went on, presumably because he would get comfortable seeing breaking pitches. Remember, in Coors, balls don’t break like they do elsewhere.

It’ll be interesting to see what his numbers look like come July. However, if he does hit well, there’s no reason Oakland can’t be competitive in a bad division and choose not to trade him.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 12:53 pm

I can’t imagine that this guy is going to continue hitting like this for the rest of the season. I think he is probably pressing to a certain degree to try and compensate for not being at Coors anymore.

Wanny2 May 1, 2009 at 12:59 pm

Agreed. Even in Coors you don’t hit by accident.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 1:01 pm

Right, plus you have to take into accountt he fact that the humidor (sp?) they have been using for a while now has already decreased the crazy numbers we originally saw in the early years of Coors.

zen May 1, 2009 at 12:48 pm

No thanks. Another Coors Field wonderboy.

therealsince86 May 1, 2009 at 12:48 pm

Ok so what would Oakland want? Fmart does not seem their type. They like high OBP guys and good control pitchers. Don’t even know if we match up.
To try and match up maybe
Murphy, Gee and Kunz?
I have no idea.

Wanny2 May 1, 2009 at 12:57 pm

Oakland’s perceived high OBP fascination is an overstatement. Moneyball was/is not about high OBP per se. It is about seeking undervalued skills because by nature those players (who were undervalued) would cost less.

At the time of the book, OBP was not household language and Beane was able to focus on those types of players.

Now, not so much. Now it appears as if Beane has targeted defense as his undervalued commodity with the exception of Giambi, whose contract was a steal by any standard.

Trading for Carlos Gonzalez (subsequently traded away for Holliday) was an example of Beane’s OBP departure. Orlando Cabrera is another. Garciaparra. Resigning of Ellis.

I think Beane would be interested in Martinez simply because he’ll take the best you have in any deal.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 12:59 pm

Maybe I should finally read that book.

There's Always '10 May 1, 2009 at 1:01 pm

Yeah, because Beane has been so successful in Oakland. How many playoff series have they won? 1?

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 1:03 pm

Ha – i mean you can’t really argue that the guy isn’t a good GM – remember that he has less resources than a lot of other clubs.

The model works with money – it’s called Boston Red Sox.

Wanny2 May 1, 2009 at 1:05 pm

That’s really not the point. The point of the book is how to operate a small market team in a world of financially superior giants.

And Oakland is always relatively competitive with the obvious disadvantages of having to lose/trade guys like Tejada, Damon, Dye, Haren, Harden, Giambi, Street, etc.

Wanny2 May 1, 2009 at 1:01 pm

Cust would be another exception — but a cheap guy who can hit HRs will always find work.

DownNDirtyJohan May 1, 2009 at 1:04 pm

We should have kept Heilman and Lastings

Coolpapabell May 1, 2009 at 1:05 pm

This brings us to the same old question of, why trade a yound prospect a rent-a-player, who will comand a high salary next year?

Then again, you do have Wilmer Flores and Marti.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 1:06 pm

This is all hypothetical obviously, but if the mets were to trade for him, it wouldn’t be as a rental player. They would or at least should seek to lock him up long term.

They aren’t going to trade half the farm, including their furture LF without making an attempt to sign the guy for the forseeable future.

Coolpapabell May 1, 2009 at 1:12 pm

Here is the thing though, Boras has you by the n*ts because you need to resign Holliday to justify trading away the farm.

udontmesswiththejohan May 1, 2009 at 1:30 pm

Yeah well, Boras has most people by the nuts. I mean look what he is going to do to the Nats with this kid from San Diego State – he wants a $50 million dollar contract.

ohboy May 1, 2009 at 1:04 pm

Billy Beane will take Aaron Heilman straight up…oh wait

therealsince86 May 1, 2009 at 12:49 pm

2 things.
1st the plan for Oakland is either to keep him or trade him. LOL
2nd it’s WAY too early to judge a guy that just switched leagues.

There's Always '10 May 1, 2009 at 12:58 pm

Funny. I was thinking they were going to sell him to Somali Pirates and have him record an episode of Survivor Man on their ship.

Coolpapabell May 1, 2009 at 1:01 pm

I saw an interesting stat, that his road numbers increased steadily as the year went on. His power outage could just be an early season slump.

There's Always '10 May 1, 2009 at 1:03 pm

But would you be inclined to trade them Parnell and Murphy for this guy? Because that’s what I think it would take. Then you’ll have to sign him for 6 years. I’ll pass on him. He’s a good ballplayer, but in a big park I think he becomes a little above average.

Coolpapabell May 1, 2009 at 1:09 pm

I agree with you 10. You could also just sign him during free agency.

One thing is certain, we need an OF RBI machine that take the pressure of Sir David Wright. I love ‘em but sheesh start knocking them in please. We also need another reliable starter, lets pray for Gee or Niese..

stickguy May 1, 2009 at 1:33 pm

there’s probably a better chance that Willy Mo works out some kinks with the AAA coaches and you see him up for a while. Who knows, maybe he will finally put together a decent overall stretch? He can play D and does have some power.

NYMetsTalk May 1, 2009 at 1:35 pm

Yuck, Holliday. The farther he is from Citi the better.. Murphy at Citi is basically equal to what Holliday would be.. no point in wasting prospects on something we dont need.. spend the chips on a big time starter like Peavy, Oswalt, or Halladay.

HelloBrooklyn May 1, 2009 at 1:58 pm

Holliday isnt gonna help this team. Murphy would have to go to Oakland , if he doesnt where is he gonna play? No Thanks ..Omar has to go with pitching. Halladay would be great.Oswalt too.

Pelfrey or Maine + prospect for Edinson Volquez

Coolpapabell May 1, 2009 at 3:17 pm

If I were Cincy I would ask for Pelfrey, and Flores/Marti/FMart

or Maine and Flores/Fmart and Marti

or Maine and Niese and Marti

Final Offer: Pelfrey and Niese

This was fun, but it aint going to happen.

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