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Tim Redding is 0–2 with a 9.20 ERA in three starts, during which the Mets are 0–3.
Meanwhile, the Mets are 6–3 in Livan Hernandez’s nine starts this season, though five of the six wins were against the Braves, Pirates, Nationals, Marlins and Brewers.
Eventually, the Mets will promote Oliver Perez, who will re-join John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana, meaning one of Redding or Hernandez will get bumped from the rotation.
I would think Redding will slot in to the long-relief, spot-starter role, while Hernandez is allowed more time to pitch.
Nevertheless, from what I can gather, the Mets continue to keep an eye around baseball for an ‘experienced, reliable, consistent starting pitcher,’ to be counted on, every five days, for the back of their rotation.
According to MLB Trade Rumors, during the last few weeks, pitchers like Javier Vazquez, Jonathan Sanchez, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Jon Garland, Roy Oswalt, Jason Marquis, Jake Peavy and Brad Penny could all be available, while Pedro Martinez remains unsigned as a free agent.
Sanchez, Peavy, Bedard and Oswalt will require a lot in return; Penny is too much of an injury risk, despite pitching well for the Red Sox; and Garland is having a poor season with the D’Backs.
The two guys from this list, who fit ‘experienced, reliable, consistent, 
back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher,’ would be Washburn and Marquis, both of whom are free agents at the end of this season, as well as Vazquez, who is under contract through 2010.
I’m not sure the Braves would ever deal a player under contract, in the middle of a pennant race, to the Mets, leaving Washburn and Marquis as players to watch as we get closer to the July 31 trade deadline.
If you remember, according to published reports, the Mets rejected a deal from the Cubs during the Winter Meetings that would have swapped Marquis for Aaron Heilman, who was instead traded to the Mariners for J.J. Putz.
Marquis was eventually traded to the Rockies, who are 13.5 games out of first place today and nine games under .500.
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Jason Marquis makes the most sense for the short-term along with the potential that the local boy may want to resign for 2010. It should only require a mid-level prospect
Even though Oliver Perez is a borderline major league pitcher right now (even when healthy), the monetary commitment that the organization made to him guarantees him the opportunity to regain his rotation spot.
That means that legitimate options like Erik Bedard and Jarrod Washburn are out of the question, unless Minaya can somehow trade Perez, which certainly seems like an impossibility.
I suggest converting either Brian Stokes or Ken Takahashi into a starter for the time being, both have experience starting in the past, and both are superior options to Tim Redding. Besides, Stokes and Takahashi are merely mop-up men in the bullpen, which represents under-use to me.
Is Jason Marquis or Washburn really an upgrade over Livan? I don’t think so. Unless Livan begins to struggle, I don’t see any reason to look for a No. 5 starter. Any of these guys would seem like lateral movement. To me, the need is for a No. 2/3 because in my mind Pelfrey is not a legit No. 2. Bedard is the guy I think they need to target, although I am not so sure both teams would hook up again on another deal.
I’m thinking that Livan remains the #5 starter while Marquis/Bedard/whomever becomes the #3 in the Ollie spot. I don’t see Ollie being productive anytime in 2009
Bedard is a free agent after this year and is not making an insane amount of money. The M’s will want a return better than the value of the 2 first round picks they’d net if he left as a free agent. That means the Mets would need to include two of the following in a package: F-Mart, Murphy, Niese, Holt, or Wilmer.
Still interested?
I agree that Sanchez, Peavy, Bedard and Oswalt will all cost too much for the Mets….
“experienced, reliable, consistent starting pitcher”
well, that pretty much excludes Pedro. Funny, b/c that would be Pedro any year before 2005.
yeea…didn’t mean to reply to your comment MustSeeTV
I was going to use this same quote from Matt’s original post, except for Derek Lowe. Who knows how Derek is past this season, but if we had Lowe now, instead of having signed Ollie, the Mets would have a GREAT rotation. That being said, I hope to god Ollie comes back later this year and pitches like he’s capable of.
yes i am for a quality arm like bedard – remember this guy was considered the #3-5 arm in all of baseball after 2007 season. his control is back (54k:15bb) and he’s striking guys out. niese is nice, but will never be a dominant pitcher. he can be replaced with 1st round draft pick when bedard leaves in free agency. if the m’s bite at niese and wilmer, great! wilmer looks completely overmatched this year and is realistically 4 years away. lets have some faith in our international scouts to find more deep farm talent. to me, this is a no brainer. johan/bedard will dominate that philly’s lineup down the stretch
Wilmer looks overmatched? Overmatched in a low-single A league? Can we even make that evaluation. He’s also the youngest player in the league. He’s not playing with other 17 year olds.
IMO, 4 years away is safe, but also conservative. The kid may have more of a fast track than Fmart. To be fair, it took Fmart 4 years to reach ML.
Point is, Wilmer has too much ceiling for me to deal. Bedard is not Johan, I’d only trade Wilmer for a star-player that is under contract after 2009.
I agree, there is no reason to look for a #5 starter if that is what is out there. Vazquez would be great but as Matt said, why would the braves help the mets out like that unless the mets drastically overpaid?
If they really want to seek depth and a potential upgrade at the back of the rotation Pedro is to me the only reasonable option out there, as you said Livan is doing well for the time being but is by no means a guarantee
I for one don’t think they need to upgrade at the back end necessarily, but I do think that if the Phillies acquire a pitcher like Peavy that the Mets HAVE TO respond in kind by the deadline. It doesnt have to be immediately but starting pitching is the only area of the team that we are far better than the phils and they can not be allowed to bridge that gap without a response from Omar
Exactly. There are 2 assumptions in play here (and I guess we’ll soon see how this pans out):
1. Perez comes back health (body and mind)
2. Livan pitches ok and doesn’t blow up
If both hold up, there is no real need for lateral movement. However, if the rumblings pop up that the Mets are very actively shopping for a starter, I would assume that things aren’t going right with Perez. Both Marquis and Washburn are not the type of guys you plug in at the top of the rotation, and if the Mets plan to make any run at all, they’ll need good pitching. This means a #2 guy like Penny or Bedard. However, if the last few years are any indication, the likes of Peavy and Oswalt will likely go first to set the market, which to me means that a top name is not attainable until very late July.
There are 2 problems here:
1. The Mets may not want to wait that long and
2. How much do Mets want to give away? I dare not to use the words untouchable, but can I assume that Parnell, FMart, and Murphy aren’t going anywhere? Who can be traded for a #1 or #2 type guy?
Omar has some options and he’s been able to pull off good trades before, but this is going to be interesting to see how it plays out
Forgot to add that imo, Penny is a great fit. Red Sox will move him to the NL, they don’t particularly need him, and he is, as Matt mentioned a bit of an injury risk. This to me means that the Mets can possibly get him at a decent price
Penny can no longer be considered anything more than 4-5 starter. He is a walking injury, much in the same way Pedro Martinez is, and his stuff isn’t all that impressive anymore. His ceiling is prob lower than even Pedro. That, and I don’t even like signing Pedro.
I also don’t buy into Washburn as he is having a great year thus far, much in the way Redding was last year during the first half. Anyone campaigning for Redding right now?
Marquis eats innings, tosses a clunker here and there much in the way Ollie does, and will give you a chance to win most games. Considering Marquis is making $10M this year on a seemingly last place team, I cannot imagine he would require that much.
I’m pretty shocked that you are even comparing Livan to Redding. Livan is going to stay in the rotation unless his performance falls off a cliff. Livan is coming off a 3-0 month of May and while his wins have come against “weak” opponents; his last two starts have been stellar and have been against good offensive clubs in LA and Washington (whose pitching is an abomination).
The Mets need to find another starter to compliment Johan, Pelf, Maine and Livan. Our starting pitchers not named Redding and Ollie have combined for a record of 20-8 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Our obvious problem is Ollie/Redding who have gone 1-4 with a horrendous 9.92 ERA and 2.18 WHIP in 8 starts. Virtually anyone should be able to keep us in game better than that combination. Hopefully Ollie can work himself back into decent form where he can keep the team in games. I’d rather have him get healthy than dealing for Washburn or Marquis who are also fringe starters.
The Mets have Santana, Maine and Pelfrey pitching well. Livan is pitching as an above-average 5th starter.
To me, the Mets would be best served by simply going after a #4-type if Perez cannot pitch for an extended period of time.
1) I don’t think Pedro is the answer. Johan’s emergence as the leader of the pitching staff coincided with Pedro’s departure. Why bring in that big shadow into the picture again when he hasn’t faced lived batters in over two months?
2) Peavy, Bedard, Holladay and Oswalt would cost more than the Mets have in their farm system.
3) I’m not convinced the other options are any better.
The thing is Mets fans have to be realistic. The Mets have an average, at best, farm system that may help them make 1 medium-size trade and 1 small trade, but not a blockbuster unless they are willing to trade F-Mart, Murphy, Holt or Niese in a package highlighted by two of them or more.
To me the Mets will need another bat and a lefty reliever down the stretch (because Feliciano cannot pitch every day).
I’m starting to think that maybe it may make sense to swing a deal for Nick Johnson and send Daniel Murphy to the minors. We all love Murphy, but he is hitting .250. The Mets cannot live with that, espcecially since he can’t play left field.
If Billy Wagner makes it back this season like many believed that would fix that, and also make my idea of trading Putz and making Parnell the 8th inning guy even more viable.
The real question is whether you want to go into a post-season with Maine & Perez as #3/4 starters.
Ollie, unfortunately, can’t be traded. So unless you’re prepared to leave him off the roster (or bury him in the pen), the #5 starter isn’t relevant for October.
The Mets are 26-12 in games started by Santana,Pelf ,Maine and Hernandez. Livan is fine as a 5th starter. We need to replace Perez with a solid #r 3 starter or get him back to 07 form.
Tim Redding, Jason Marquis, and Jarrod Washburn…
I’ll take my chances with whats what’s behind door #4, Monty!
I would rather we make a move to add a good pitcher that we could all be excited about and would really improve the team instead of a move that would make us marginally better.
I know I might be creating a speculator hailstorm, but what would it reasonably take to get Jonathan Sanchez? Assuredly, the asking price will be really high but SF has so much pitching depth in their system and they would definitely prefer to get this guy on the far coast, read: different division.
Are we thinking maybe a top liner bullpen arm (Putz, Parnell) and a prime prospect or two (Havens, Davis, the catching Pena)?
This whole conundrum really points to a serious flaw in the General Management of the team: Lack of starting pitching depth in the organization. Its really an area that Omar and staff have seemingly ignored.
Welcome the “Get Pedro” chants. Too bad he doesn’t have braids or the “get Manny” crowd would have a smooth transition.
Dude, Peavy won’t come here. He’s like MIke Hampton part two. He’s typical of people form the south that think NYC to be like Mos Eisley in the first Star Wars movie. I don’t get why people get so squeamish about NYC, it’s really not as scary as portrayed. The kicker is supposedly he’d play for the Phillies and their fans are far more psycho than us.
I’d like a Cliff Lee, Oswalt seems on the decline and Bedard too quirky for us. Pedro would be cool but we need a bona fide 2 guy. I love Pelfrey but he’s not that guy yet. There’s just too far a drop down in pitching the day after Johan. I also don’t subscribe to the left, right philosophy, good pitching is good pitching regardless.
I think you use Putz to get a Cliff Lee and put Parnell in the 8th.
haha…thats funny about NYc. I was traveling in Scotland last month and some guy asked me about NYC and if it was safe and how the media makes it like theres so much crime. I’m like, every city has crime, second, dont ever trust the media about crime, and third, dont be an id*iot and walk down a back alley at 4am and everything will be fine.
and 4) DONT TRADE PUTZ lol
The guy we all want is Oswalt isn’t it? He’s starting to get tired of Houston.. Citi field could help his numbers.. it almost happened once??
If they can package Niese and someone else not F-mart.. isn’t that the guy we need?
Oswalt is signed to reasonable deal and is still pitching well.
I think you’re looking at 2 top prospects and a third lesser quality prospects.
So you’d have to package either Murphy or F-Mart AND either Niese or Holt PLUS one lesser prospect.
I would do Murphy and Niese.. but it would be awfully hard to give up F-mart.. I agree there…
But Murphy, Niese plus one? For Oswalt? Yes.. I would do that.
In a heartbeat, but I think we as Mets fans have a much higher opinion of Murphy than the rest of the league. No way does that deal get done with Niese and Murphy as the centerpieces
Prolly not.. Niese is a good start. We cant trade Holt unless it’s been a year since he’s been signed..
That is correct on our ability to trade Holt, but Holt signed his first contract shortly after the 2008 MLB Draft, so he can be included as a “player to be named later” until he hits that date.
you keep your eyes open,but if nothing surfaces, you hope Perez can come back and be your #4. you then have Hernandez, Niese, Figgy and maybe even Bostik or Gee as optiions for your #5 and that assumes redding gives you nothing.
the Mets have plenty of options for a #5 but they don’t have that #4 right now. I still have hope for Ollie but you need to scan the market for a backup plan if Ollie is alost cause for this year.
Matt, well done getting things smoothed out…. As for Redding, we would have bet he’d be doing what Hernandez has done but then again, we were wrong about Sheffield. Oswalt would be a major coup.
I like Livan as our #5. He’s got a rubber arm and can save the bullpen. Make Redding the long man when Oli returns and play a wait and see with what will eventually be available. I don’t think we need a #2 like starter but I’d never turn down an upgrade in the 4 or 5 spot. Just don’t over pay.
I dont think we can close the door on redding just yet. He will be slotted into the bullpen when Ollie comes back, but he is also just beginning his season now. So we’ll see if he can turn it around….although by looking at his stats, he’s never been that good of a pitcher. (high K-BB ratio, high WHIP)
high K-BB ratio meaning bad ratio
I just hope we don’t see Pedro in a Phillies uniform. That would be heartbreaking, whether he beat us, or we beat him (a little less heartbreaking with the latter).
1) While I loved Pedro while he was here, I don’t understand while some people still clamor for him. He’s a 5 or 6 inning pitcher now, and, honestly, we made the right move with Livan, who eats innings. I’ll take my chance with Ollie when he comes back that he can get us through 5-6 innings without a meltdown, and Jerry & Dan are starting to get real good at heading off that meltdown before it really explodes.
2) Honestly, we have to stay internal unless we can get Peavy or Oswalt. I would trade top guys for either, although Peavy is in his late 20’s so he would be my preference. One caveat- we do not trade FMart. He has such a sweet swing. He is going to rake.
3) Other options could present themselves next month. I am not talking about 5th starter candidates, but #2s and #3s. Also, if the Phillies do get a Peavy (unlikely, he’s not coming to that bandbox), we should not overreact, especially since we don’t have alot of chips to play with.
Matt,
Why qualify who Santana’s wins came against?
The Nationals for all their faults have been one of the best offensive teams in the league to date and Livan shut them down. He also pitched extremely well against the Dodgers.
All things considered he has been far better than the Mets even hoped to date.
I have typing disorder today, was thinking Santana’s wins while knowing I meant Livan Hernandez. Back to bed for me.
We have 4 pitchers in the rotation throwing well. I have a hard time seeing a huge need right now. I think Redding should be given at least a couple more starts to get himself fully straightened out before we go making any moves. Given our position player injuries, I don’t think we can afford to give up some of the people we’d need to give up to get any real quality in return.
That said, I think our pitching game should be defensive. Omar and Co. should be keeping up with who the Phillies are looking into to see if we can block any trades to strengthen their rotation. Given we have the better pitchers park, we might be able to have an edge if, say, the Phils want Peavy but he’s balking at the trade. He may not really want NY, but he’d definitely prefer Citi over CBP. Even if things didn’t work out to bring him here, we might be able to keep him out of Philly.