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Well, here is where it gets interesting…
Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel have been 
essentially saying, ‘Keep it at or about .500, click days off the calendar, stay within striking distance of the Phillies and wait for the cavalry to return, i.e., Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, John Maine, Oliver Perez and JJ Putz, and hope there is enough time to make a run.’
The thing is, the Mets are at .500 today, at 37–37, and begin a 16–game stretch tonight against the Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers and Reds, and one game against the Pirates, before the All-Star break, after which they immediately travel to Atlanta – at which point the trade deadline will be just 11 games away.
To me, if the Mets can get through this 16–game stretch in July, and still be above .500 and within four games or so of the Phillies, I am certain Omar Minaya will look to trade for young talent.
From what I understand, the Mets are not looking to acquire a rent-a-player.
Instead, they’re seeking a hitter like they got in Xavier Nady during 2006, i.e., a guy in his late 20s, under contract through at least next season, he’s a good hitter, not a slugger, and he will not cost a whole lot in trade because he’s about to start earning more in arbitration and his current team doesn’t want to pay it, such as Rockies OF Ryan Spilborghs or Royals 1B-3B Mark Teahen.
The thing is, if the Mets slip and stumble during these next 16 games, and, instead, they’re around 42–48 and eight or so games out of first, I wonder how Minaya will play the deadline.
My guess is, because of the type of under-contract type hitter he is seeking, Minaya may make the deal anyway, regardless of record, because such a player can be in the mix for the following season as well.
In either case, despite the record and reality, the Delgado-Beltran-Reyes-Wright-Santana-Maine-Perez-KRod Mets are certainly capable of going 30–10 through the end of August and September, I believe, but the team needs to get there first – and a stretch like the next two weeks will do a lot to help bridge that gap.
I get what you’re saying about getting a Xavier Nady type player, but he didn’t come cheap. If I remember, Mike Cameron was under contract for another couple of years too, and there was a lot of discussion at the time that the Mets could have gotten a lot more for him.
I think the Mets problems are too big for just one player to address, and bad as it will be this year, I hope that they stay pat if they continue to play at 500 ball.
They did get Nady and a very good Duaner Sanchez in exchange for Cameron and Seo. I think the Mets did quite well on that one.
those were separate deals though…it doesnt really change your point, i know..but sanchez came from the dodgers.
Those were 2 separate trades, since Nady went to the Padres and Seo to the Dodgers.
Also, judging by A-Rod’s struggles, I don’t think we can pencil in Delgado to immediately return to 2008 2nd half form, nor do I think that any of the pitchers with arm injuries are going to be completely reliable.
Yes, one player cannot bring them to a title-contending situation, they need Reyes and the Carloses to do that. But one player, who we all agree we will need later, can help us stay at .500 now, and then is in the fold later if/when the title-contending players return.
There are two important points that I believe are somewhat overlooked in this post.
1. Holding at .500 right now would be HALTING the decline. Since the mainstay of players went down we have slowly been losing games to get to this position. In other words they have have been playing UNDER .500 for awhile now. What makes anyone think reaching that point will halt this. Perhaps the addition of a bat could improve the team enough to do so.
2. The fact that Omar does not want to rent a player given point #1, IS A GOOD THING! In most situations Omar would be trying sell the farm system to the highest bidder in an attempt to make the playoffs. That he is not doing so is a plus.
Matt,
I just don’t have the faith in this team to go 30-10 when healthy, since they haven’t been able to do that the last two years. Plus, just because Reyes, Beltran, Maine, Delgado and Perez come back doesn’t mean their completely healthy.
Basically, the Mets need to play the role of Rocky Balboa in “Rocky” over the next two weeks. They don’t have to beat Apollo Creed (i.e., the Phillies). They just have to make sure they are still standing when the bell rings (i.e., the All Star break).
If they make it until the All Star break still standing, then they can come back in the second half (after they get healthy) and play the role of Rocky in “Rocky II” – i.e., knock Creed out for the title.
not that I would expect it, but the team did go 18-8 last July and 18-11 in August (the majority of which happened sans a closer that month)
The question hinges on the health of at least two of the missing three, and frankly one has to be Reyes, if you get Reyes and Beltran back or Reyes and Delgado back healthy and productive, this team can make a run.
Ryan Spilborghs & Mark Teahen are not good ballplayers. Why would I want them on my team?
Spilborghs is hitting .236 away from Coors
Teahan has 28 RBI in half a season. Is he a real upgrade over anyone not named Jeremy Reed?
Holliday is not an option because The A’s will want the world for him, and he’s proven human away from Coors.
Never trust the stat line of a Rockies player. Just pretend the player is jacked on roids and he’s quitting as soon as he gets to another team.
Also, Mark Teahen is not the answer or even part of the solution. The only way Teahen makes sense is as part of a larger solution and only if you are giving up minimal cost (i.e., an Eddie Kunz-type).
This plan makes no sense. It’s like being shot in the legs and someone telling you they will go get a doctor if you can drag yourself to the other side of the room, instead of getting you the help now.
If Omar is going to acquire a player later, why not get someone NOW who can help them ‘tread water’ and keep things above .500 until the other players get back, and then have a monster team. Instead, we should try to ‘tread water’ short-handed and then when the players come back you add another player then? I seriously do not understand this rationale at all.
Again, it’s unfair, and very possibly a cop out, for management to put the possibility of getting help on the shoulders of a shorthanded team overachieving.
especially with me, you, and everyone here knowing that what you said is true — even if they fail, Omar will probably still make the move later anyway.
You have to have two things: A) A team to trade the player that will make a difference. and B) Have enough trade chips that the other team would like trade for a player who really matters……….The mets have neither!
You don’t think we could get Adam Dunn for Parnell and Niese? I would replace Murphy for one of them. That deal gets… er, um, Dunn in a second.
And if we don’t have the chips now, how will Omar have them later? It’s about not wanting to spend money that Madoff stole. Period.
Well yes I think that the NATS might take that deal, but are you really ready to give up a young, cheap and solid reliever, with set up man potential and our top pitching prospect (at the moment) who is also cheap for Dunn? Especially since we don’t know what becomes of Livan Hernandez or John Maine after ‘09.
Oh by the way on the trade chips, Omar will still have the same chips, but as we get closer to the deadline the prices will come down. And again any trade made has to address beyond 2009 to make any sense.
Im sick of this nonsense of us not having enough chips. That is TOTAL BS! didnt we not have enough chips to get johan santana? ask seattle how our crappy chips have worked out for them in the putz deal, not to mention every year we see guys like jason bay get traded for a song and dance. Omar simply is incapable of making an impactful mid-season trade, I hope he proves me wrong bc his next big deadline move will be his first.
Who would you have him trade for???? Too many teams are still in it and there really isn’t anyone available that isn’t a rental or wouldn’t cost half the farm!
Not for nothing, but with Dunn signed thru 2010, couldn’t his price go up by the deadline if the Nats manage to free money elsewhere first? What is the sense in waiting? And do you really think it’s worth the next 25 games without Dunn just in hopes of salvaging — let’s face it — replaceable parts?
Even if the Nationals were to free up more payroll (although I don’t know where, I believe Dunn would be their highest paid player in 2010) the price would still go down on Dunn I believe, because the Nats problem is not offense, it’s their god awefull pitching and I’m sure they would like to free up as must cash for offseason aquisitions in the pitching dept. as possible.
ANd as far as what you consider “replaceable parts”, sure they are replaceable, but that gives you two opitons; A) wait atleast 2 years for our other pitching prospects to be ready for the bigs or B) you then have to use money that could be used to sign a big bat in the offseason to replace those pitchers! Now keep in mind that Carlos Delgado is going to be a free agent, so clearly as this season has painfully shown we have to replace his bat! It is not an option, it must be done! Now if you wait, keep your pitchers, and therefore don’t create more offseason holes you have that extra payroll to go out and land a Matt Holliday type player in the offseason. I’m not saying don’t make a move, I’m saying make the move when it makes the most sense for ‘09 and beyond! Without overpaying in the hopes of just saving the ‘09 season!
You just said two posts up the Nats would do that deal. So THAT is who would do a deal and THAT is who we would give. Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell are blue chip prospects because that is what you have been told. Just like any prospect we know nothing about. No one said boo when Heath Bell was traded because the shine was gone after blowing some games for us. The fact is that Jon Niese is replaceable and Bobby Parenll is replaceable, yet there is not an Adam Dunn anywhere to be found on this team. It just takes opening up the wallet.
And that’s what it comes down to. These injuries can cost you in one of two ways: the pocketbook, or wins. The Wilpons are choosing wins and hiding behind the excuses, to save a buck in 2012.
All good, but when exactly is the calvary coming back. All I hear is when these players won’t be back by… Reyes will not be back till at least All Star Game. Maine will not pitch for another week…
We keep hearing about this plan to be afloat till they get back, but other than Delgado and Putz who we think are coming back in August, there is no timetable on any of these other guys
Again I ask “Where the heck is Angel Pagan”??
Pagan is still on the DL. I read that he might play his first rehab games in the next few days, but that he was still doubtful before the All Star break.
We’re debating the merits of starting Castillo, A. Reyes or Alex Cora in the leadoff position….
enough said
Too bad Jerry picked the worst of the three!
Here is one more thing. A winning team, one that maybe won the world series last year, or maybe made the playoffs, would be a situation where I would consider ‘treading water’ and playing .500 ball until they get back. But this is a team that has not even made the playoffs in the last two years. The 1987 Mets could afford to wait out the injuries (though they did make three May trades) because they were a winning team. They knew when they got everyone back they were the best. Suddenly when we get Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Maine and Perez back we are going to go on a run in the final quarter of the season that makes up for 3/4 of treading water, when in full seasons we came in second place?
great point. especailly since going on this run is going to involve playing well in september
What about someone like Brooklyn’s own David DeJesus on the Royals, they’ve made it known that all of their players not named Greinke, or Soria can be had in a trade. He’s a damn good hitter, and would fit in nicely in RF next year, in the meantime he can fill in at CF while Beltran is hurt, and while he’s not a slugger, he can produce, and even lead off while Reyes is gone. DeJesus is someone I wouldn’t mind giving up a Parnell + prospect for.
I get the feeling that everyone is pining for adam dunn just because he can hit the ball out of the park. That’s not how this team needs to be built. Speed, defense, pitching, and batting average have to be priorities for Omar.
If you are going to put the team in a position of having to play .750 ball (30-10) for a full 1/4 of the season, the odds of pulling it off are miniscule.
besides, you are talking about getting back to essentially the team that couldn’t break 90 wins the last 2 years.
Sure, any team (like the Rox) can have a miraculous hot stretch, but they are rare.
25-15 might be doable (that is a 100 win pace). So how far beihnd can you get?
And of these guys (Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, John Maine, Oliver Perez and JJ Putz), only Perez and maybe Beltran are good bets to be back by the ASB. Putz, Wagner and Delgado? Unlikely to August or September (and who knows what you get).
Maine could be 2 weeks or next year. Same with Reyes.
At least I do agree that any move they make should crry over to 2010+. THey have a lot of holes to fill for next year, even if all the injured guys come back this year. And they need the prospects to fill those holes (on field or as trade bait).
if you give up the decent chips now for a rental, you are really screwed twice (1st missing playoffs anyway, and 2nd when you can’t fill holes in the off season)
Two points here:
First about Metsblog and Matt in general. One of my favorite things that Matt does, and does well in my opinion, is break down the season and schedule into interesting increments. Matt does a better job than most of not getting caught up into the series by series hysteria, and really trying to gauge what things are likely to look like a few weeks down the road.
That being said, I think in this instance Matt may be misjudging the situation. If the Mets are .500 through this next stretch it would frankly be a miracle, and dumb luck. This team has neither the pitching or offense to compete consistently with playoff caliber teams at this point. That being the case we should be anticipating the necessity of the move (especially coupled with the fact that some of our injured players simply will not make it back at the level we hope for) and break out the wallets.
The Mets have the ability to spend, especially if the spending gains them a playoff run and the increased revenue that comes with it. Having learned the last two seasons how precious every game actually is, we are not in a position to wait another 3 weeks to figure out what should be evident today.
I know that you can’t expect (or really prepare for) the kind of injuries that have occurred to all-star caliber players of the Mets, but plain and simple, the Mets brass have let the fans down.
One bat makes a difference. Even with just Beltran and Wright this team had a fighting chance. Back before some of these injuries we were already behind the eight-ball.
Be it Madoff or for what ever reason, the Mets never fielded a complete team. They went with experiental Danial Murphy at LF. He has never hit this year, and now he is learning on the job and quite frankly hurting the Mets doing so. Meanwhile we still do not have an answer for LF.
I am not certain who the Mets should have gotten for LF, but assuming we had such player and he was healthy he would have made a difference offensively and defensively.
Poor Murphy should have been down in AAA to learn a new position. Quite frankly Mets fans pay too much to have to put up with this learning on the job scenario. Mets should be embarrassed by the team they are fielding. Mets fans are not paying any less, but are receiving less than what was promised for sure.
As for Murphy, put him down so he can learn the position if first base is where he will end up. That throw he made last night is going to happen when a person is learning the position. It should have happened down in AAA away from the lime light.
And if the solution is to acquire a first baseman for 2009 and onward, then quite frankly Murphy has to be part of the trade to acquire him. Because if first base is blocked then what do you need Murphy for? He surely can not play the outfield.
Frustrated fan here? Sure I am. I am a season ticket holder. I am over a barrel. I realize that my tickets in August and October will be wortheless and have no market value. Do the Mets care? No, they have my money.
Do I really want them to acquire a player at this point? Frankly I think its too late and too many holes to fix.
What do I want?
Well, frankly I do not think Reyes or Delgado will be back this year, and who knows when Beltran will be back.
I prefer the Mets to quickly fall out of the race and be a seller to acquire good young talent. Wagner/Delgado/Putz if they come back before the end of the trading deadline then trade them.
Leave the Mets with some young talent via trade and also will salary room since those guys will all be gone.
“I prefer the Mets to quickly fall out of the race and be a seller to acquire good young talent. Wagner/Delgado/Putz if they come back before the end of the trading deadline then trade them.”
This says it all – if Omar wants to keep the club, and the fan-base alive for this season he does not have the luxury of waiting around like they were defending NL East Champs.
Unless he wants to see Citifield with 18K empty seats for the last three weeks of the season, he better find a way to be a better GM than the guys he is competing against.
Well, I dont think the Mets need to be like the Knicks and throw good money after bad.
Sometimes you just need to know when to fold’em.
I think 2009 is a fold’em year.
Don’t rush Reyes or Beltran back. Let them heal.
Let Maine heal and let Ollie get his head straightened out.
We lose Delgado, Putz and Wagner. That has to be close to 25-30 million of the books.
Unless you see Livan as a long term solution (perhaps we do I dont know), I say trade him, trade Murphy (if we think we can do better outside with a first baseman), trade Reed. Dump Tatis.
I just don’t see how you can dump on a season less than halfway in, only a couple games off pace, because a few key players are hurt. I understand the treading water until the all-star game and seeing where you are theory more than this quitter’s mindset.
My expectation is that we are going to sink like a rock in the standings.
If that occurs, I do NOT want Omar to finally make an acquisition at a point in time where one man will not fill the hole.
The time to acquire was ages ago.
When the Mets are 7-8 down and sliding further, I would like the Mets to make the right move and be a seller.
great pic matt. you always find some gems!
Listen, I am no less a Mets fan than I have been for the last 36 years.
I just dont want to watch the crap they are rolling out there this year.
All I ask is that Omar not ruin the team by trading away good stuff.
All I ask is that Omar set us up for next year. Trade away chips that will make us better.
Realize that this is a loss year. Calvary is not just over the hill. They are far across the continent.
I am okay with shutting it down. Put my emotions away for the rest of the year so they too can come back in 2010 strong as ever.
All I ask is that you respect me as a fan. Acknowledge it is over and do the right thing. Dont wheel out the same pitiful lineups and call this a MLB caliber team. it is not.
Here’s something i came across at mlbtraderumors:
“Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail gets the sense that the Jays are ready to move Vernon Wells and/or Alex Rios for just about anything to free up enough money to keep Roy Halladay after next year. ”
Now Alex Rios definitely fits the bill as that Nady-type young hitter who needs to be moved for payroll reasons. What an addition that guy could be for us, and if the asking price is right it could end up being a real steal for the Mets. He’s an athletic young outfielder who be great at CitiField.