Rotation: Perez to Start Thursday

July 13, 2009 at 9:04 am · 62 comments

by Michael Baron

The Mets have set their rotation for the start of the second half on Thursday.

Oliver Perez will start Thursday night against the Braves in Atlanta, followed by Mike Pelfrey on Friday, Johan Santana on Saturday, Fernando Nieve on Sunday, and Livan Hernandez on Monday against the Nationals in Washington.

Jerry Manuel told reporters that Jonathan Niese would take the place of a starter who has “three bad outings in a row”, which seemingly would apply to Hernandez who in his last two starts is 0-2 with a 19.29 ERA, allowing 21 hits, eight walks, and 15 earned runs in his last seven innings and has lost his last four starts.

For now, the rotation will remain in tact, with Manuel saying:

“We’ve had some success with the rotation we have, and you gotta kind of give guys the benefit of the doubt.”

…as much as I think Hernandez has been beneficial and durable, his last two games in particular have been really alarming and with Niese pitching as well as he has been in the minors, it might be wise to consider this change as the team has lost eight of his last nine starts overall…

…if the team is going to make any sort of run in the second half, then I think Manuel  simply must make changes from within as he cannot rely on ownership making a deal…in reality, things couldn’t be much worse…

{ 62 comments }

dave27 July 13, 2009 at 9:08 am

If all we end up getting from Livan is mostly strong work that carried us through almost the entire first half with Maine and Ollie out, I think we’d all have taken it in a heartbeat.

Saw Tony Clark was relelased – good backup 1B option with pop and a great clubhouse guy. Was not producing at all this season but who knows, with a few more ABs he could come around? He is 37, but maybe still worth a quick look.

methead July 13, 2009 at 9:11 am

not a bad idea about Clark (I think BJ ryan would have been a nice pick up too). then again….we are not scouts. ahahahaha. Maybe he cant get his bat through the strike zone quick enough anymore. LOL

One Day This Team Will Kill Me July 13, 2009 at 9:14 am

definitely not a bad guy to stick in AAA to see if he can get righted and be insurance for Delgado and a solid bench player.

Only issue is we might not have the AB’s in AAA for him, with Evans and Lamb down there as well

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:14 am

I don’t know about that…he hasn’t hit over .250 since 2005 and was hitting .180/.301/.443 with 4 HR and 11 RBI in 34 games with San Diego this season.

I love T-Clark because he is one of the most baseball savvy guys around, but there is no way he even does better than DP Tatis at 1B backing up Murphy.

methead July 13, 2009 at 9:09 am

I stand corrected. i didnt think the Mets would ever bring up Niese.

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:20 am

I didn’t think they should if we weren’t in the race and Livan found his stuff again. But now, I too stand corrected…bring up Niese and let him finish the season in NY; great experience for the kid.

Is it just me, or does this team have a little life now since the Francouer trade? I honestly believe he just needed out of ATL badly, and getting a second chance as a 25 year-old in NY will bring his numbers up again. From what I understand, he was surrounded by a few different hitting coaches teaching him different things, and it confused him because he listened to everybody. I really think he could get back to his 2007 form if we just let him do what feels comfortable.

I also like him in our healthy lineup:

Reyes
Castillo
Beltran
Delgado
Wright
Francouer
F-Mart
Santos

That’s pretty deep…

zer09 July 13, 2009 at 9:30 am

Flip Beltran and Wright and you’re there. But having Francour, FMart, and Santos 6-8 is hardly deep.

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:34 am

I disagree…I think Frenchy is a solid hitter and can do some damage even from the #6 spot. F-Mart and Santos are hit or miss (no pun intended), but if you don’t like F-Mart, replace him with Sheffield.

Now is it deep?

Of course, in 2010 it will be a bit different, but hopefully F-Mart will be a better hitter then with one year under his belt. I like Nick Johnson at 1B (or until Ike Davis pans out, hopefully), but anybody who is injury-prone scares me after this season. I really have no clue who will play 1B next season…maybe we can work a deal for Jorge Cantu?

Lorenzo23 July 13, 2009 at 9:42 am

I disagree about your thoughts on Frenchy as well.

I think in our healthy lineup he will have enough protection (certainly more than Atlantas week offense) and he can become the hitter he was only 1.5 year ago. So many people are writing him off so early – Lets give him a shot cause I have a feeling that this deal could become a steal in the future.

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:44 am

Wow…Lorenzo agrees with me again. This is scary, lol.

mark4212 July 13, 2009 at 9:48 am

That’s what i agree with. He’s only 25. 2 years ago he was un-tradable by Atlanta. He has an off year at 24 and isn’t hitting supburb this year and Church is all of a sudden better at 31. The same ryan Church who’s never hit more then 15 HR never driven in more then 70 RBI. Never hit higher then .280 from last year.

Frenchy has had better seasons across the board. He’s younger. That’s why i was up for the deal and why i thought it was a positive. 2 years ago you would have loved this deal, and Atlanta would have never done it.

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:53 am

Plus, listening to him speak, you can tell he is having fun again. That kind of thing rubs off on players around you, and then the team becomes somewhat fun to watch again.

You can’t help but love the guy…him going 4-9 with a 2B and a couple of RBIs in his first couple games in NY just makes it even easier.

That being said, as soon as he goes 0-for, everybody is going to be all over him. He isn’t a savior, just a decent replacement with a chance to be great.

mark4212 July 13, 2009 at 10:15 am

Oh of coarse. He starts going 0-22 with like 8k people will be all over him.

I’m just saying you traded Ryan Church who everybody of the fans seemed to love. But in his time in NY was hurt, and played sparingly by Manuel. We all still think he has .280 20 HR 80 RBI potential, but we haven’t seen him ever do that. he’s now 31.

You got a player who is a good Outfielder defensively. Easily has 30 HR power, and won’t have a problem driving it out of Citi. He’s also hit .293 for a full season. Nobody know what happened to him the last year and a half in Atlanta. Maybe he just wasn’t happy, maybe he was unmotivated, maybe a hitting coach made him change his approach and it wasn’t working for him. I just don’t hink you have the success you had early like he did at 22 & 23 and then just lose it when you enter your prime. I agree why Atlanta traded him though.

Personally i think they mets bought low on Franceour and his upside is way better then what church brings.

Sylow59 July 13, 2009 at 10:39 am

and those 15hrs were pre-Citi Field

Lorenzo23 July 13, 2009 at 10:44 am

Yea Church only hit 2 home runs the first half of this season with 22 rbis. That is Luis Castillo like production

Patrick July 13, 2009 at 9:33 am

why is Martinez even in that lineup, he should stay in Buffalo for a long time.

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:35 am

It was a mistake, sorry…I was thinking about 2010 and 2009 at the same time and mixed them up…should be Sheffield.

methead July 13, 2009 at 9:40 am

yeah and sheff would be batting ahead of Francour….

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:42 am

Right….which is why I said that is a pretty deep lineup. I know I am in the minority on Frenchy here, but I don’t care…he is a good (not great) hitter and for him to be batting 7th is incredible.

I bet Francouer goes on a tear here in the second half; bet he finishes with a .280 average this season…

Lorenzo23 July 13, 2009 at 9:44 am

If you’re talking about Sheff I doubt he will be our left fielder in 2010… I’d like to see Holiday out there if we dont have to over pay. Maybe the week financial market will help us out.

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:47 am

No, I was thinking of F-Mart in LF (barring a FA acquisition or trade of some sort) for 2010, which is why I accidentally put him in the lineup.

I’d like Holliday too, but only if he is a FA. Something tells me Oakland will work HARD to move him for a ton of prospects. They can’t afford to just let him walk.

Frankly, I think this team needs to pursue a 1B this offseason more than anything.

mark4212 July 13, 2009 at 9:51 am

Oakland is playing with fire. They either have to trade him or offer him Arbitration or risk losing him for nothing. His arbitration number might be upwards of 15 million and i don’t think Oakland can afford to have him accept that.

Lorenzo23 July 13, 2009 at 9:53 am

I hope Oakland gets screwed. haha

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:54 am

Agreed. But if he doesn’t start hitting this season, he won’t win that arbitration case if he’s asking for $15 MM. Still, they need to trade him.

Lorenzo23 July 13, 2009 at 10:47 am

I wouldnt mind an outfield of Holiday, Beltran, and Frenchy for next season. That would be a solid outfield for the dimensions at Citifield.

markzila July 13, 2009 at 9:14 am

i think like 3 of livan’s W’s came against the Nats. which kind of skews his stats.

Agee's Catch July 13, 2009 at 9:17 am

He owns them, which is why he is pitching on Monday

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:22 am

Give him credit…we haven’t owned the Nats since 2006.

Besides, the Nats’ offense isn’t as bad as everyone thinks; it’s their bullpen and their defense that is the worst in the league. With Guzman, Johnson, Zim, and Dunn in the top of the order, they definitely score some runs every now and then…

methead July 13, 2009 at 9:41 am

You are right. Thats is why he starting Monday so he can break the chance of 3 straight bad losses and not lose his spot. :) I am sure he would have been hammered by any other team.

Lorenzo23 July 13, 2009 at 9:47 am

Yea this is definitely a problem. I’m sure he will pitch well against the Nationals and then the next start get bombed… That being said can we really afford to have Livan lose three games for us in a row??? We NEED to go on a huge run starting the second half to have any chance at a playoff race. I dont care what the Mets want you to believe 7 games out in the loss column is a lot when you have a RED HOT team like the Phillys in front of you.

One Day This Team Will Kill Me July 13, 2009 at 9:16 am

I think Livan deserves a bit of rope here with the hope that the AS break can get him back on track, if hes awful against the Nats or his start after that against a major league team then he should be replaced

I would have replaced Nieve though

Xavier22 July 13, 2009 at 9:26 am

Nieve pitched reasonably well against the Reds on Friday – not his fault the Mets couldn’t muster a few runs against Bronson Arroyo. I think he deserves one more shot and if he stinks it up, call up Figuerroa.

Patrick July 13, 2009 at 9:29 am

That game should have been 1-0 had David Wright executed a rundown vs. a double clutch and throw high and away.

Rorschach July 13, 2009 at 9:50 am

Too much to ask.

Xavier22 July 13, 2009 at 9:54 am

And they still would have lost!

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:30 am

Four of Nieve’s starts were quality starts, and he was only one out away from making it five. In six starts, he has a 3.21 ERA and has allowed 35 hits in 33.2 innings, striking out 21.

His numbers aren’t mind-blowing, but he has faced VERY good hitting teams so far:

@ NYY- 6.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER
vs. TB- 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER
vs. STL- 6.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER
@ MIL- 3.1 IP, 11 H, 3 ER
@ PHI- 5.2 IP, 6 H, 3 ER
vs. CIN- 6.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER

He has walked too many guys lately, but as it does for some pitchers, the ASB is a good time to relax and get your command back for the second half.

I think Nieve is our #5 guy for the rest of the season, barring any blowup. He has no choice but to pitch well, though, because Figgy is doing really well in AAA too.

methead July 13, 2009 at 9:47 am

I would only really say…1 bad start.

thedude July 13, 2009 at 10:18 am

Definitely take Nieve over Livan.

Livan is reverting back to what he’s been the last few years. No one could have expected him to do well all year. We got a few good starts out of him and that’s all we could ask. Time to move on.

Granted, we don’t know what Nieve is. But we do know what Livan is. And that isn’t good.

methead July 13, 2009 at 10:24 am

and he throws 94-95 mph

Nate W. July 13, 2009 at 10:46 am

As a starter Nieve has allowed 53 baserunners in 33 2/3 IP. Thats slightly more than 1.5 baserunners every inning.

Nieve hasn’t been good so much as he’s been lucky. A few more well timed hits, and a few less double plays and his stats look atrocious.

I think the way Niese is pitching in AAA they have to pick someone to move aside for him.

Mets5rocks July 13, 2009 at 12:25 pm

You don’t have the ERA that kid has got with all those base runners by being lucky! Give the kid a little credit, he really has only had one bad start, and shall we say some shotty defense played behind him as well. I’ll take Nieve over Hernandez any day of the week! Look at the teams he’s faced and still has a 3.21 ERA and had it not been for the game in with Milwalkie he would have an ERA under 3.00! Now look at Livan’s ERA against mostly inferior offenses………….any questions?

Nate W. July 13, 2009 at 3:16 pm

A little more comprehension is needed. What I said means that he’s been good and lucky, not just lucky…

geezus.. His last two starts have been very pedestrian after a very bad one. That’s not a good trend any way you look at it. The word is out on him and it could be tough for him to duplicate the success of his first three starts when he surprised teams as much as he overpowered them. (This means he did both, not just surprised them)

methead July 13, 2009 at 9:44 am

I think Nieve should be starting over Livan when Maine comes back. He might be the more most consistent starter over the past few weeks whose name isnt Santana. BUT I am pretty sure unless Livan continues to pitch bad that Nieve will get shafted and sent to the bullpen.

Personally, Nieve should be #5 even over Niese. At Least Nieve is proving his worth even against GOOD teams.

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:49 am

Great hitting teams…CIN is the weakest, but even they have a good lineup with Votto, Bruce, and Phillips in the middle.

BTW, I feel bad for Bruce…he was having a tough year at the plate so he tries to make up for it in the field with hustling plays, then breaks his wrist.

mets81 July 13, 2009 at 9:54 am

Jerry’s a liar. Niese shouldve been here a month ago (actually he shouldve never been sent down).

He needs to have Livan’s spot immediately. We got some quality from Livan, more than anyone should have expected, but its time to cut bait.

Mets5rocks July 13, 2009 at 12:28 pm

The only reason Livan is starting MOnday is because he owns the Nationals (or did) lol

mets81 July 13, 2009 at 12:59 pm

then why not let Niese ease into the rotation against Wash?

Mets5rocks July 13, 2009 at 1:32 pm

Well besides Livan owning the Nats, the more times you bounce Niece back and forth the sooner he runs out of options and we take the chance of losing him, not too mention I don’t think the Mets lose much having Livan starting against a team he owns to try to boost his trade value, while Niece gets another start or two under his belt.

mets81 July 13, 2009 at 4:19 pm

I guess, but

1) Livan doesnt have that much trade value, and 1 good start against the Nats isnt really going to trick a good GM into giving up anything for him.

2) the bouncing Niese up and down thing assumes he’s going back down. He’s pitched well enough that he should be here, regardless of whether John Maine is healthy or not. He had a rough spring and Livan beat him, no question, but he never should have been sent back down and he should be up now.

3) Id rather, if Niese is going to be here long-term, to get him starts against bad teams(although the Nats can hit a little)

dwright5_godsend July 13, 2009 at 9:56 am

I’m probably late, but the Nats fired Manny Acta:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/nationals-fire-manny-acta.html

I’d take him over Jerry, LOL. Not his fault he had a crappy team to coach.

thedude July 13, 2009 at 10:12 am

Would LOVE to see Acta managing this team.

mark4212 July 13, 2009 at 10:18 am

I know it’s too funny… I mean the team had a chance to win yesterday. Bases loaded 1 out 2 times when the game was 1-0 and they couldn’t get in a runner. It’s not the coaches fault when the players don’t perform when they have their opportunity.

He’ll latch on as a bench coach somewhere and get another shot down the road.

Lorenzo23 July 13, 2009 at 10:52 am

What we should do is bring him in as 3rd base coach instead of Razor Shines. The team seems to like Manny and Razor Shines clearly is a horrible 3rd base coach…

In regards to next season if we are going to change managers we GOTTA bring in Bobby Valentine. The guy is a great manager and gets the most out of his players. Would love to see him back.

thedude July 13, 2009 at 10:59 am

That would be fantastic, but it’s way too smart of a move for the Mets’ FO to ever make it.

I’ve given up dreaming of a Bobby V reunion because it makes too much sense.

I’m just happy Wilpon hasn’t exhumed the body of an ex-Brooklyn Dodger and propped him up in the dugout Weekend at Bernies-style.

Hopefully I didn’t just give him an idea.

Lorenzo23 July 13, 2009 at 11:15 am

LOL

mets81 July 13, 2009 at 1:02 pm

I would love it too, but my guess is that makes Omar too vunerable.

If he keeps Jerry, he’s got one more line of defense for his job. Now he can justify everything w/ “injuries” and keep jerry. If the team is flailing at the all-star break next year or underperforms next year, Jerry goes and Omar gets 1 more chance. If they bring in a new manager at the end of this year Omar’s job is much more vunerable. Its why he kept Willie after 07.

thedude July 13, 2009 at 10:24 am

All I want in a manager is someone who will stay out of the way, not screw things up by arrogantly trusting his “gut” — as if his intuition is more accurate than scientific evidence.

Nate W. July 13, 2009 at 10:55 am

No AS break for Big Pelf, he’s coming back on 4 days rest… Santana will have 3 days before the AS game and 3 days after, so I guess that makes sense.

I probably would have preferred splitting up the Nieve-Livan-Perez bullpen mashing group, but whatever.

Mets must to find a role for Acta before someone else finds a manager to fire.

stickguy July 13, 2009 at 11:07 am

To be fair, Jerry can’t start Neise unless Omar calls him up.

I figured tey would give Livan 1 more shot. If an extended break didn’t get him back in some kind of shape, nothing will. So say bye bye.

best case for the mets fans? He gets poiunded, but the offense bails him out, and the Mets win 10-8!

mets81 July 13, 2009 at 4:21 pm

the best case scenario is that we get a front office with a clue of how to evaluate talent.

Felix the Cat July 13, 2009 at 11:18 am

Why slot Pelfrey ahead of Santana considering Santana pitched Sat and Pelfrey yesterday?

Mets5rocks July 13, 2009 at 12:33 pm

They want to give Santana extra rest, and honestly I like the move Ollie and Pelf have both pitched well against Atlanta, and if we manage to win the first 2 having Santana going for the series winner on extra rest can’t be a bad thing!.

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