In his recent Under the Knife report for Baseball Prospectus, injury-expert Will Carroll writes:
“Carlos Beltran is coming back. That was always the plan, but how he’s going about it speaks a lot to where he might be in the future. Beltran has decided to accelerate the pace of his rehab, hoping to come back towards mid-August… Beltran made the informed decision based on the near certainty that he will need microfracture surgery and could miss much, if not all, of the 2010 season. He’ll do everything he can to avoid it, but that’s the worst case scenario and he’s willing to give it a go. His success will be based on pain tolerance and management, as well as Jerry Manuel’s ability to spot him in and out. It’s unlikely he can play CF, though no one has said much about where he will actually play. It’s a calculated risk that Beltran and the Mets are taking. Given the success – or lack thereof – with microfracture in MLB, it’s a big risk and perhaps Beltran’s last hurrah.”
…wow… i mean, wow… there was some buzz around the Mets a few weeks ago suggesting beltran and his agent, Scott Boras, might look for a contract extension this winter, though he’s under contract through 2011… i would think this could have serious implications on such a plan…
Carroll also reports on injuries to Gil Meche, Roy Oswalt, Francisco Liriano and other players from around the league.
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I thought that knee doctor said he will be fine with no surgery just rest???
I think this is if he plays on it, and breaks the bone doing so. Rest will heal it but he says he wants to play and the ‘worst case scenario’ in doing that is breaking the bone and needing the microfracture surgery.
Basically, his choices are to sit out 2009 and be healthy for 2010, or play the last 45 games of 2009 and risk missing 2010, maybe a 50% chance or so.
I highly doubt Beltran’s going to miss all of next season. I hadn’t hurt much of this buzz before. They shouldn’t have made him play through that injury that doubled the size of the bruise, like countless amounts of other’s. I’m hoping it cost Minaya, Manuel and Ray Ramirez their jobs.
Unlike with the World Classic, if he has an entire off-season to rest (plus a likely October off), he’ll be alright. He’s only under contract 2 more years anyway. If he wants to get another lucrative contract from whom ever that may be, he’ll have to play through pain.
If this were a certainty, he should be getting the surgery now.
I agree with dave… if that was the case surgery should be done now instead of risking missing Beltran for all of next year too
Matt, I’m shocked that you are concerned about Beltran’s ability to secure the livelyhood of a few more generations of Beltrans instead of the Mets ability to field a gold glove and all star center fielder in their plans for the next two years…
I have to think that if this were 100% accurate noone in their right mind would thinjk that playing 2 months in what is been a horrible and long shot season instead of playing the entire 2010 season. The cahnce of him missing all of 2010 would need to be 10% or less I would think to decide to return this season, so I put little stock in this thought of him missing all of 2010.
Plus, if hes looking for an extension, don’t you think he would pick health first, especially after this injury plagued season?
Exactly – if $cott Bora$ was willing to consider a contract extension for Beltran (something he never does, so it must have been at Beltran’s insistence) there’s no way he would counsel his client to play and risk further serious injury for a long shot chance at the playoffs. I’m sure even the Mets would prefer Beltran to rest and wait for 2010 if the injury were that threatening.
At least I hope that’s the case. Damn that would suck.
Mets do NOT need Beltran’s version of the heroic bloody sock!
If this report is true, then Beltran should be shut down and rested. Mets should not permit this to happen. They do not like to be without Beltran for half of 2009, then they should not want to be without Beltran for 2010.
I hope this is addressed some time in the post game report, or I hope Matt brings this up with his conversations with SNY and those “in the know”.
I will be appalled if this would be allowed to occur.
Beltran is like Pat Ewing – you don’t appreciate him until he’s gone.
YOu have to admire Beltran for his willingness to risk his health, but this is where the club sayd NO!! Heal and then play. Short term vs long term. Carlos is great, but this is a silly idea if true
beltran is the most important player on this team. this team does not have a chance – this year or next – without him.
la la la, i cant hear you
dont even want to think about it
Repost: For some reason, my original attempt went to moderation; not sure why.
Um….I’m sure Will Carroll is a great guy, but I think I have to call bs on this one.
I find it difficult to believe that the first word on this comes from Baseball Prospectus, and not the team. I refuse to believe that the FO would allow themselves to be put in a position to say, “oh, yeah, about that….” It just doesn’t make any sense. It would be a colossal PR blunder, even beyond our recent gems.
If microfracture were a necessity, Boras would (like someone said above) be making sure that Beltran got it fixed right away, so he’d have time to play for another contract. No way Boras says, “Yeah, go out there. Roll the dice on my commission.”
gotta agree with pedros rooster – there is really nobody out there knowing boras that would believe boras will let beltran play hurt knowing that he could miss his next season and possibly miss out on a big payday. There are other people involved in this decision.
This is a preposterous story. How did microfracture surgery become a virtual certainty when he went to the guy who invented the microfracture surgery less than a month ago and was advised that he doesn’t need surgery. Based on that, there is no chance that Beltran opts to come back, or Boras lets him, if it increases the chance of needing microfracture surgery and possibly jeopardizes his career. Absurd.
I don’t know how preposterous this is. The following is from the 7/16 NYT:
“A second opinion two weeks ago in Vail, Colo., from Dr. Richard Steadman, an orthopedist, indicated that Beltran would not need surgery. But if the bruises continue to linger, Minaya said, surgery could be an option eventually.”
Carroll’s report seems to be running on the assumption that the knee is not improving and the Times reported that if it didn’t, the surgery is back on the table. While this might not happen, it certainly seems within the realm of possibilities.
The question seems to be, if this is the barrel the Mets are staring down and with microfracture being such a crap-shoot, why risk anything this year? Why not just shut him down for ‘09?
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