Terry P: Yesterday you wrote quite negatively about Jose Reyes. What do you suddenly have against him? He’s a rare talent, and should never be traded.
Matthew Cerrone: I have nothing against Reyes, but I do have questions about his game – and I’m not sure why that’s a bad thing.
Personally, I think the Mets would be crazy to trade Reyes, and I hope they’re not considering it, because a) he has yet to realize his full potential, and b) he has less value today, since he’s missed most of this season with an injury.
To be honest, the bitter tone in my post from yesterday, here, was probably the result of me being frustrated with this overall season, while missing Jose’s energy and attitude on the field… frankly, the Mets don’t feel the same and are far less entertaining without him.
That said, I do have questions about his game. I feel pretty confident about how David Wright will perform next season, despite his drop-off in power this year, but I find I still wonder about Jose.
For instance, I know Jose is fast, but I still have questions about his plate discipline and his decisions on the base paths. I know he has a tremendous arm, but he seems to be regressing with his glove. I love his on-field energy, but I wonder about his focus.
Remember, even in 2006, which I feel was his best season to date, he was only hitting .250 in early June.
Here’s the thing, Jose’s current level of play and stats are fine… but, I can’t help but imagine him one day taking over like Rickey Henderson, which I realize may be unfair because Rickey is one of the greatest players of all time. Nevertheless, I still wish for that level of dominance from Reyes.
In other words, while I am comfortable with what Wright has become, I expect more of Reyes, because I believe he’s capable of so much more than Wright, and I wonder if or when he’ll rise to and stay at that next level.
Jim W: This perception of Reyes drives me crazy – he is already great… This mystical ‘other level,’ Reyes has already reached it… It is an unrealistic standard… even a fantasy.
Matthew Cerrone: It’s a fair point. For instance, he’s always the top ranked SS in Fantasy Baseball, yet I don’t feel he’s worthy of it. Of course, I drafted him first in my league. So, what does that say?
Actually, I think it says I have unrealistic expectations.
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I feel like I’m on another planet here.
If someone has questions about Reyes’ game, that reflects more on them than it does on his game.
His numbers have been pretty consistent over the past four years and they’ve only been some of the best numbers for a SS in baseball.
Some players are as good as they’re going to be by age 23. It’s time to just accept that.
I feel that Wright and Reyes are the future of the METS. They have to be on the field and playing the game the right way. When you have them leading the team and you add Beltran, Francour, Santana, K-Rod and Putz, you have a good core, if healthy. You still need to add MORE to move to the next level. I hope that OMAR will do what has to be done, the window will NOT stay open much longer.
Kudos for coming out and addressing that post. I still don’t understand where you are going with Reyes, and believe you have unrealistic expectations for the man, but i certainly appreciate the fact that you addressed it. Nice job.
well said
1) Jose Reyes is NOT a GREAT player, not by any means. He is a very good player, who had one great season. He’s not an ideal leadoff hitter, in that his highest on-base percentage in any season is only about .350-.360. He’s a .290 hitter, who hits 10-15 homers, 10-15 triples, and plays very good (although sometimes lazy) defense. There’s no question he’s got a lot of talent, but to call him a GREAT player is ridiculous. He’s had one great season, and the rest have been good to very good.
I am 100% for trading Jose Reyes provided we get a top-of-the-line prospect in return. Tim Marchman’s article on cnnsi.com the other day highlighted many of the problems with this organization, and I fully believe that the biggest problem is the “top-down” approach.
A “top-down” approach is signing free agents at exorbitant cost as the way of building a winning team. The problem with this approach is that you end up with a few high-profile stars, while certain positions (left field, right field, second base, catcher) are devoid of any talent whatsoever. And please, don’t tell me that Luis Castillo is talented. He’s a singles hitter who plays horrible defense.
I believe this team needs a “bottom-up” approach…. meaning gut the team (except wright and johan), and stock the farm system as much as freakin’ possible. I think Omar attempted something close to this with the Ryan Church/Jeff Francoeur acquisitions, but it failed miserably because those are middle-of-the-road talents. We need the best prospects we can get, and hopefully 3-4 years down the road we’ll have a winner… and we’ll still have Wright and Johan as veteran leaders. Then, once we have a strong base, we can add free agents to fill in our weaknesses.
We’ve been trying the top-down approach as long as I can remember. I started watching the Mets in 1990 when I was 8 years old. Something needs to change.
Jose Reyes for Clay Bucholtz? In a HEARTbeat
Insanity.
That would be a dumb trade.
1) Find me the other shortstops who do what Reyes does. Outside of Hanley Ramirez, name one.
2) Labels like “top-down” or “bottom-up” are dumb. How about a “smart” approach. A smart approach means don’t trade your young, affordable stars. You can add quality pieces without giving away your best players.
I would argue that labels like “smart” are also useless….as it is unable to be defined. Just because an organization does well, or wins one particular year does not make it smart.
The bottom line is, this organization is broken. It needs to be repaired……if doing that means you trade some individuals to plug several other organizational needs, then you do so. Does that mean trading Reyes….I have no idea…..I have no idea what the market is for him, or what other teams are willing to give up for him……
I am a NY Sports fan in all sports except Football….where I happen to be a Patriots fan (a season ticket holder for those about to label me a bandwagon fan……I have suffered through the 1-15 years in a 1/2 empty stadium as well…)……When Belichick came in and immediately cut Coates and Armstrong it was viewed as blasphemy….but it was all part of an overall plan that has turned out very well for the franchise….If the Mets can ever get their act together, come up with an organizational plan, and implement it….things will be much better……..not at first……but once the plan has a chance to develop. if trading Reyes falls into that plan to acquire key cogs at other positions….then so be it.
Bottom line is….I just want this organization to have a general clue as to what they will do next year, the year after, and 5 years down the road…..and I don’t think they do. And that is what is most frustrating to me.
You’re right. I didn’t literally mean that would be their approach.
Just that you judge things on a case by case basis, depending on the situation, not whether it fits some overall philsophy.
So a young stud free agent comes on the market (like Beltran or Teixeira), you sign that guy. But you dont go crazy one way or another with only big signings or only player development.
The Dude: “So a young stud free agent comes on the market (like Beltran or Teixeira), you sign that guy. But you dont go crazy one way or another with only big signings or only player development.”
I fully agree. I just think that the player development has to come first, and the occasional free agent has to come last. Otherwise you sign free agents, lose draft picks, never build a farm system, and end up in the mess we’re in right now
This is NY. Read this blog for 1 week straight and you will see a fan base that would never accept losing for 3 years, which is what you are advocating because thats what it will take.
Thank you for explaining to me about New York sports.
Now that I’m informed, I don’t give a crap what the fans say. If they want a winner, they should be rebuilding the farm system in my opinion. What, they’re not going to stand for it? What are they goign to do, not go to games for a couple years? Citifield will have solid attendance even if the Mets are pretty bad again next year, so there’s nothign the fans can do. If they want a long-term, stable winning team, they’ll have to endure a couple of seasons of mediocrity (which we’re going to have to endure anyway)
My point is…it doesnt matter what is right. What matters is, it wont happen. This isnt an aging team or a team full of players past their prime. This is a team with a good core who are young. No way NY Fans will accept trading those players away when in reality, you are at least 2 players away from competing again. your theory of building down up works but does not apply here because in 2006 we were 1 game from the world series. They need to re-tool not rebuild.
Oh and dont forget..Santana would not accept losing for 3 years for the “chance” that these minor leaguers will blossom.
If the team loses for three straight years the fans have no choice but to accept it. Will some fair-weather fans leave? Of course, but when the team is good again, they’ll come back. They always do. Go look at Mets attendance in 1983 and then look at the numbers in ‘86. There’s this ridiculous notion that as fans we won’t stand for rebuilding. Subscribing to that idea mires a team like the Mets in mediocrity. They were great in the mid to late 80s (underacheivers, yes, but great) BECAUSE they rebuilt.
Look at how many people read and comment here every day. Don’t tell me we’re not passionate about this lifeless poor excuse for a team. Most of us bleed blue and orange. Those that don’t will come and they will go.
Please, drop the notion that you can’t rebuild in NY. That’s the creation of the tabloids, and is simply not true.
You want to give some examples of “quality pieces” you can add without giving up stars? Are you talking Ryan Church/Brian Schneider quality pieces? Sure, we didn’t give up much for those guys, and they sure didn’t do much for us either.
You talking about the other fill-in players? Livan Hernandez? That’s not quality. Oliver Perez? Far from quality. Luis Castillo? Horrible.
Give me some examples of quality players that you think are available without giving up something quality in return. I bet you’re going to say go out and sign Matt Holliday this off-season. Sure, great idea. Give him $150 million over 8 years, so we can’t afford to put money into our farm system and we’re forced to watch Livan Hernandez-types pitch every day because we can’t afford to pay quality 3rd, 4th, 5th starters.
Instead, how about we build with the as many of the best high-quality prospects we can get our hands on. That way when they develop into very good to great players we can afford to sign a few fill-in pieces (much like the phillies did with Jayson Werth a couple of years ago. He was a castaway from the Dodgers, signed with the Phillies not having to play a significant role, and he’s been spectacular for them).
Want to know why the Phillies won the world series last year? Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madsen, Shane Victorino. They build the core of that team around players from their own farm system, then went out and spent on additional pieces as necessary (Werth, Lidge, Moyer, Pedro Feliz). Fortunately for them, the “additional pieces” weren’t the core of the team, so they didn’t have to pay exorbitant amounts of money. THAT’S how you build a team.
nice job contradicting yourself. you say trade reyes yet you cite the phillies and the players they drafted and developed. well jimmy rollins is 30 so if they had traded him when he was 26 bc they felt he was as good as he wouldve been you think they still win in 2008? This team just needs to be intelligent and when a guy like omar minaya and jeff wilpon are running things the output will always be dumb. Oh and Omar definitely has a bias towards certain players and that needs to be addressed bc it is ridiculous that guys like randy wolf, jon garland, adam dunn, orlando hudson who are all GOOD fill in players who signed for cheap were never given a thought in the offseason meanwhile omar falls over himself to pick up guys like castillo perez and alou for more than market value.
Zeile,
I didn’t contradict myself. The difference between the Mets now and the Phillies when Rollins was 26 is this: The Phillies had Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madsen, etc. coming up in their farm system. In my mind we don’t have a single player in our farm system who has shown himself capable of competing in the major leagues at the same level as any one of those players with the phillies.
As such, I think we need to very nearly start over.
Also, add Bobby Abreu to that list of good cheap fill-in players that Omar completely ignored.
in fairness…..randy wolf was considered as a fallback for Ollie, regardless how you feel about the decision. and Garland stinks.
The rest of that list, good players.
First of all, Holliday’s not getting anywhere near 150 million over 8 years. But no, I probably wouldn’t sign him unless his price was pretty reasonable. But I appreciate you assuming I would.
Second, tell me what quality pieces the Phillies gave up for Victorino and Werth?
Third, I find it interesting you don’t mention Brad Lidge as a reason the Phillies won it all last year. Again, another additional piece they gave up nothing for.
But I think we’re mostly on the same page. I want the team to build the farm system, stay away from most free agents and let players (like Wagner) walk to get extra draft picks. That’s the way great organizations build for long haul.
I think all fans share those sentiments, I just dont get the ones who include trading wright or reyes in those plans. this offseason we will have a great draft pick that we cant lose and there will be players of need available through FA. This offseason will be vital not only to the success of the team in 2010 but beyond. I just wish Omar/Jeff wasnt the one in charge
I agree that we’re mostly on the same page. However, for the record, I did mention Brad Lidge as a reason the Phillies won it; I just didn’t mention him on the homegrown player list.
I think we’re all just sick of this team being mis-managed over and over and over.
Yeah, my bad on Lidge — I noticed that after posting.
The larger point, that we agree on, is how poorly managed this team has been. They have a ton of problems, which is mainly why I dont get this Reyes stuff.
I would give anything for Reyes to be our biggest concern.
This can also be called the Cardinals Method. They are a small market team with a good farm system. There is always someone ready to step in when there is an injury. Sometimes they turn into stars, sometimes not – and then the next guy steps in. As a rule they make intelligent trades. They do not make huge FA signings. The only exceptions that come to mind are McGwire and probably Holliday. They are going after him hard. But, both were / are in-season trades so essentially they had an opportunity to see how they performed with the rest of the team. I don’t think anyone was signed last year. The Cards didn’t / couldn’t even resign Aron Miles. Yet nobody here in St Louis said anything. The entire off-season nobody questioned what the Cards were doing. LaRussa told Shuemaker to learn 2B. While he is no Ryne Sandberg he is also no Luis Castillo.
The point I’m meandering towards is that the smart / bottom up approach has worked here for decades. In the past 30 years their longest streak of under .500 is 2 years. They always bounce back. And they do it without the magic of Free Agency. It is all internal. And since they draft middle or below they never get the Strasburgs / Clyde Wrights / Pete Brobergs of the world.
So their minor league coaching has to be good, their scouting has to be good, their major league coaches have to be good, and their front office has to be good, and their ownership has to trust all of these people and be willing to sign a big paycheck when absolutely needed (ex. Pujols). They have good forward planning.
Minya is useless, Manual is useless, and Fred is keeping Jeffy occupied by letting him play Mr. Baseball Executive. He is nothing more than Jethro Bodine.
Change the madness. Forget the Get Manny demonstrations. Start the Get LaRussa / Duncan demonstrations. Start where it matters most – management and the rest of the backroom: The Foundation. Players will be drafted; they will sign without the bank breaking hoopla; they will be developed. The team will also get a last gasp out of garbage heaped vets; they will get big years out of underachievers. And it will be fun to watch.
You just said exactly what I’ve been trying to say all day long. Exactly. There’s a reason that we’re good for 3-4 year stretches, then we fade into obscurity for several years; we don’t develop our own players. The Cardinals are a great example.
The Rays are another good example. For years they didn’t develop players and instead signed a bunch of lousy free agents (jose canseco, wade boggs end of career, fred mcgriff end of career, greg friggin’ vaughn). Once they started developing their farm system, things turned around. Look at that team now; Carl Crawford, Josh Shields, BJ Upton, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria were all home-grown. Then they added to that by trading for fill-in pieces like jason bartlett (who has been fantastic at a bargain price), dioner navarro, etc.
Oh boy where to begin… i don’t have the time so lets just point this out…
Top-down = high priced free agents. Like, idk, Beltran (your fav met?)
Bottom Up = Strong Farm that will become strong MLB players. Like, idk, Jose Reyes?
Right, the Mets have Jose Reyes and David Wright from the farm system. That’s it. Beltran is a good player but I created this account quite some time ago, so you can probably disregard my account name for purposes of your argument. You point out two examples, Beltran (who is NOT worth $119 million by the way) and Jose Reyes. How about gary sheffield, carlos delgado, luis castillo livan hernandez tim redding? How about the other pieces we tried to “fill-in” on the team such as Ryan Church, Brian Schneider? Can you honestly tell me that many gm’s in the major leagues would pick this group of players as a way of “winning now”?
Jose Reyes simply isn’t as good as you all think he is. Everybody is wowed by his speed, but other than that he simply is not a dominant player. Luckily, the perception around the league is that he IS a dominant player, so we should trade him now while his value is high.
I’m not saying its EASY to build a farm system. Its going to take some drafts where we actually HAVE A FIRST ROUND PICK! Maybe 2 even (if we have allowed billy wagner to walk instead of trading him for some 26 year-old 1b who can’t play defense a lick). Sure we’ve developed 2 very good players out of our farm system, but last I checked there are 25 players on a team and we’re significantly overpaying for some of those players, and simply ignoring others. That’s not the way to build a team.
well i have good news for you this offseason we can sign any Type A we want and not lose our draft pick. also the mets trading wagner instead of getting picks was stupid which brings me back to the idea of simply having intelligent people making the baseball decisions. plus it is painfully obvious than money is becoming a serious issue for the mets.
I’m curious, who would you say is a dominant shortstop in the NL?
To answer your question, in my opinion there is one dominant shortstop in the NL and he plays for the Marlins. There are several other nice players out there who are not dominant: Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Yunel Escobar, Miguel Tejada, Troy Tulowitzki. Reyes is probably the best of that group. But if you’re asking about dominance… I don’t think Jose Reyes is a dominant player. And I don’t think there’s any question that Hanley is.
What are you smoking? Pass it down here. Reyes for a top-prospect? Any good team that wins has a core of young players and a balance of “older” players with expierence. Look at the “other NY team”, the TOP-DOWN approach has not hurt them, they have 26 rings. Big Name’s put people in seats and sells jersey’s, t-shirts and other money making things. We have a good core with Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Francour, K-Rod and Santana, we still need a few more pieces to win. I, for one, am not willing to wiat 4 or 5 yeras to develop players who may or may not be any good.
That’s the problem. Sure we have a core, but we have NOTHING else. And in order to GET other players, we end up significantly overpaying (luis castillo) because we have no draft picks because of all of our free agent signings. Plus if an injury should happen to any one of those core players, let alone all of them, then we’re screwed.
the TOP-DOWN approach has not hurt them, they have 26 rings.
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Yes and no. Many of those 26 were before free agency. And their last big run was largely homegrown. Even now, there is Pettite, Rivera, Cano, Jeter, Joba, Hughes, …
And, BTW, who has the second most World Championships? The Cardinals – name their highest priced FA signings over the past 5 years.
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Big Name’s put people in seats and sells jersey’s, t-shirts and other money making things.
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Yes, a big name will put someone in the seats; but a winning team will always put more people in the seats. T-Shirts? Yeah, there are a lot of Puljos T’s here, but there are also many Ankiel, Shuemaker, T’s and jerseys. They’re all over the place. Last year you would see a couple Aron Miles Jerseys each weekend. How many Castillo jerseys do you see? Winning sells.
I dont agree with you 100%. The Marlins have won twice, the Braves where the 90’s, the Phillies won last year, how many people do you see wearing team stuff for those guys? The Marlins are in the WC race and the last game betwen the METS I saw like less than 500 people there. Fans want to think or feel like there team can come back and win, most times they dont. I see Yankee stuff everyplace because they win all the time and have the big names to get all the attention. Do the Yankees over pay , YES, but, it has worked for them.
So you’re saying you’d rather think your team has a CHANCE to win but actually lose, then not think your team has a chance but they actually win? Seriously?
I live in St Louis and am commenting on what I see here. Do you live in Miami or Atlanta?
Perhaps the difference between here and Tampa and Miami is that the St Louis fans do not expect a fire sale after winning something.
Sylow = my new buddy
Thanks for being patient with my rants. I’m done.
david wright hit 8 HR this year and struck out an unbelievable number of times. his average has been inflated by an unimaginably high BABIP. i don’t see why no one is concerned with this.
haha, yea i simply do not understand everyone is just like “oh no big deal he will be fine next year” based on NOTHING but their own personal optimism. Im not worried about reyes at all next year if healthy i assume he will match his career norms which by the way are GREAT and would make him the 2nd best SS in all of baseball. David Wright on the other hand, the guy will not hit 10 HRs and hes not hitting any on the road so its not the stadium, either hes been hurt all year or howard johnson is completely incompetent. It could be both. I wouldnt be shocked to see wright have some kind of surgery in the offseason maybe on a hip or a hand or shoulder, bc at this point ive run out of reasons why he has absolutely no power this year.
Its been beaten to death about the high strikeouts and about the low home runs so i am not sure what you mean by people not being concerned. Jerry Manuel has made no secret that Wright has played through pain almost all year, he is just the kind of player who will not hide behind injury.
It is what it is, but anyone who is a fan is more concerned with his health more than any statistic right now. Getting a 94mph fastball to the head is probably one of the most traumatic experiences you can go through on the baseball field, time for fans to get their priorities straight and end the bashing.
wait, now his entire season’s production is off the table because he took a fastball to the head?
of course i was and am concerned about his head. but it’s exquisitely hypocritical to call me out on discussing wright when this is the second post in two days crying about reyes and his potential while he has been battling injury all season and is considering surgery.
Of course its not off the table, i just meant going forward to the end of the season, the amount of HR’s and RBI’s mean little because it will not get them to the post season.
I was not calling you out in the least, sorry if you took it that way, but i just meant that fans in general do get more carried away with numbers than with health.
This post is on Reyes and his potential for greatness, no question, and no one is trying to let Wright off the hook, just trying to be fair that he has also played with pain but it took a fastball to the head to send him to the DL.
He would probably be in the 100RBI world if this team was healthy all season. The guy is still ripping the ball and is getting clutch hits. Everyone is allowed an off-year. Be thankful his off-year is .300 10 HRs 80 RBIs 90 runs 400 OBP in an empty lineup. Had everyone been healthy he would probably be around .300 10 hrs 100+ RBIS, 100+runs, 400 OBP. Nice off year. LOL
Exactly correct, if the lineup was complete and he still had the numbers he has, there would be valid reason for concern, but the fact that he has played injured himself up until the concussion speaks volumes, he was last man standing and fought tooth and nail on the phone to stay off DL, he lost, but its for the best, he finally is admitting that.
You chose Reyes over Pujols in FB? Oh, boy.
I’m with Matt actually on this one (and I have been disagreeing with him a bit lately).
I see what people mean when they say that Reyes is a good player, but I also see what people mean when they wonder if he’ll ever reach his full potential. I say this because he is spoken of by many as some sort of a phenom, yet his performance on the field is very measurable and no where near the level of hype that he gets.
For starters, we all know that stolen bases are an extremely overrated statistic. That’s been mathematically proven already by people smarter than you (readers) or me. You have to steal bases with an 80% success rate just to make them worth even attempting, and that doesn’t leave a lot of room to play in. Reyes has been around 80% for years now, so it’s worth him trying to steal bases, but if he never stole another base, it wouldn’t really change his REAL value much as people think it would.
His real value is in his baserunning speed, which allows him to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. This is fantastic when he has room in front of him to run, but not as valuable when he is in an RBI position. With a slow runner on first base, it doesn’t matter how fast he is if the guy in front of him can only get to third.
There is a difficult to measure intangible that he has – the ability to put pressure on a defense. This is underused by him big time, however, because he’s a pretty lousy bunter. Imagine how many more infield hits and singles against drawn in infielders he would have if he could actually bunt with any kind of regularity. See Luis Castillo.
Also, his speed is somewhat wasted because he has mediocre plate discipline. He’s tried very hard and has improved in that department, so kudos to him, but he’s not a natural .400+ OBP guy (which if he were, he’d be a GREAT player).
In reality, his real saving grace is the fact he plays shortstop. This makes his decent offensive production more valuable, and his defense (although spotty and prone to mental lapses) is actually pretty solid because of his raw athletic ability.
There is no doubt in my mind that there is another level for Jose Reyes … the only question is whether or not he’s capable of reaching it. For the record, I don’t trade the guy either, not until he’s 30-32 years old and getting ready to decline anyway.
Great point about the bunting. You know what would be nice? If Jose spent all this time on the DL working on his bunting. Somehow I have a feeling that’s not what he’s doing….
In a nutshell .. if someone could convince Reyes to have the same offensive approach that Castillo has (with the natural power that he has), he’d be a lock for the HoF.
amen
Wow, praising Castillo. What a difference a year makes. Lot of stuff on Jose today, see ohmurph.com.
Matt, I don’t think there’s much reason to really be concerned about Reyes’ plate discipline. I mean, last year’s wasn’t as good as the year before, but he still had a 66:82 BB:K, which is not bad by any means, and he was off to a start this year that was very similar to his 2007, with 18:19 BB:K and an almost identical average.
The biggest thing to remember is that Reyes is just now approaching the years that are considered to be a hitter’s prime. If you tell me that Reyes hasn’t realized his potential, that means little to me. What’s his potential? Do you believe that his potential is .320 with 20 homers and 60 steals? If so, then certainly, that is a hard potential to reach.
I’m not sure what all the moaning is about, the Mets can’t trade Reyes, they would get terrible value for him because his injury.
They shouldn’t trade Reyes, he is a great fit for the new ballpark, hitting triples, playing above average defense (he is capable of this for sure).
Stolen bases, check. He can get into scoring position without needing to give up any out. When he is on base the team is not dependent on a HR, he can move over and score a bunch of different ways.
Speed and Defense are critically important at Citi field. Reyes has both. If this team is to be successul, they need to go after minor leaguers with speed and good defense, they need to add power at 1B or a corner (but they shouldn’t need to go out and overpay at both spots).
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