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In a post his blog for ESPN.com, Rob Neyer gets right to the point and explains why, “Daniel Murphy isn’t good enough to play regularly. He doesn’t field well enough to play second base, and he doesn’t hit well enough to play one of the corner positions. He just doesn’t.”
Brandon Tierney of 1050 ESPN Radio disagrees, writing to Twitter, “I still believe in Murphy… Keep him at first, upgrade left-field and catcher, and he’ll hit .290, .300 with 40+ doubles and 15-20 HR’s next season. He WILL learn to pull the inside heat.”
According to MLB Trade Rumors, ‘The free-agent market for first baseman is lacking a monster bat, but there are some interesting names,” such as Nick Johnson, Hank Blalock and Adam LaRoche.
…i agree with tierney… i think, with protection in the lineup, and a more stable season, using what he’s learned and lived through this year, murphy can hit above .280 with at least 30 doubles… but, like i think what neyer is saying, it’s a waste to go with just 15 HR at first when there are opportunities all around the game to get more power from your first baseman…
…i still feel it’s about allocation… it’s about scoring runs, first, and then how you allocate them is just a matter of contracts and sorting it all out… so, if the Mets get a 40–HR slugger for left field, it could be more than enough production with murphy at first to score the necessary amount of runs to win baseball games… but, to rob’s point, if i understand it right, it might be easier to acquire that power bat for first base as opposed to left field… and, why make life more difficult than it needs to be…
…that may be, but, looking at MLBTR’s list, if the Mets plan to get the power they crave from first base, it will need to come in the form of a trade because that free-agent market is pretty weak… at least in terms of power for Citi Field…
However, Buster Olney of ESPN.com believes the Padres will not trade 1B Adrian Gonzalez this off season.
…similarly, there is buzz in Milwaukee suggesting the Brewers could look to trade Prince Fielder, but, if they do, it will be for a top, young, front-end starting pitcher, the likes of which i don’t think the Mets have…
…this is why, regardless of what you think of murphy, it might be easier to get instant offense in left field, from a free-agent market that will offer Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, not to mention possible options via trade…
really nick johnson or adam laroche?
Johnson has a good OBP (when not on the DL), but not much power. And Laroche’s average numbers are about what I would expect Murphy can put up next year with normal development.
Keep in mind these guys will have FA price tags. Can laroche put up enough extra production over the in house guys (murphy, evans, maybe carter) to justify spending 5 million of the tight budget on him?
yeah i was just expressing surprise that people think nick johnson or adam laroche is that big of an upgrade to warrant the money we would have to pay them especially with the other holes to fill
I know. I was agreeing with you
haha okay good sorry if i didn’t really get that, i am obviously slow today
Guys, I like Murphy, but lets get real. He’s nothing more than a platoon guy at best. Until he learns to play better defense and hit w/ more power, he’s not the answer at 1b. I’d resign Delgado for 1 year and have Murphy as the guy who cans tep in until Davis or Carter is ready to take over. Delgado will cost you less than he did this year (maybe $6M tops) and Ike Davis or Carter can take over whenever they’re ready.
We gave the hyped Murphy a shot and he has been bad. Not God awful, but he has not been good. I think some of you guys are drunk on the Mets Kool-Aid. I love the Mets and Murphy like everyone else, but if the Mets go into next year w/ Murphy being handed the 1B job, that’s insanity (doing the same thing and expecting different results, LF this year).
I think getting a BIG SP (Lackey or better) and a LF (whomever has power) and Delgado or other stopgap 1b, the Mets would be looking good again.
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Beltran
Delgado/1b/LF
Frenchy
LF/1B
Thole/Santos
Johan
Lackey/Halladay/SP
Pelfrey
2 of Ollie/Maine/Neise
I think going into next season with Murphy at 1B without upgrading LF would indeed be insanity. However, if they can get a Holliday/Bay/Crawford, then Murphy can drop down in the order into the 7 spot where I think he would be more effective.
I would rather they platoon Murphy with Evans (or Carter) at 1B rather than throw $6M at Delgado. He’s a DH at this point in his career and I’d rather they spend that money upgrading the rotation or LF.
I don’t see how we know exactly what Murphy is going to be based on this one year, can you really judge a player on one year on the big leagues? Combined with the pressures and lack of protection and the switch from LF to 1B. How can we judge? I understand that he was “disappointing” this year and how people don’t want to depend on him but there are more important pressing needs than worrying about Murphy at 1B if he managed to hit .260 this year with all the issues there is reason to believe he can improve with more protection and Nick Johnson and Adam Laroche are not really upgrades over Murphy. There has to be a plan and filling multiple holes outside the organization probably won’t work. We need to get a number 2 pitcher and LFer that can hopefully hit a lot of HRs. Those are the two biggest needs right now
Well, if Brandon Tierney believes it — in all CAPS, no less — then it must be true.
I like Murphy. No, the numbers aren’t fantastic this year, but they have been much better in the 2nd half, and keep in mind, this year is effectively his AAA season.
Plus Matt, itis nice for someone to acknowledge that the game isn’t match play by position, it is how many runs the team scores. Oh, and HRs aren’t the most imprtant thing, runs are.
So, if you want more HR power, they already get above average from CF and SS (with Reyes and beltran doing their norm). And like you said, if they get a LF that can pop some, as a team they will hit enough.
Also, Murphy looks like he will hit .260+ this year, with 30 doubles, and 10+ HRs. Since he is still adjusting to the majors, and learning to hit (and not that many rookies really have huge years anyway), of course I expect him to do better next year.
His D (at least the glove part) has been better than expected, he really needs to work with a tutor on the mental aspects, and that really comes with PT.
Also, Davis could be pushing out the incumbant sooner than you think, so if they get one of the FA guys, it better be on a ST (1 year) deal. Not that any of them are particulary good overall. Maybe some more HRs from a few, but they all have issues.
I don’t see the point of signing a 1B out of that free agent class when they are not significantly better than what Murph could provide for a fraction of the cost. An upgrade at 1B would have to come through a trade, otherwise see what Murph can do at 1B and go hard at Bay or Holliday.
When it comes down to Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche, who neither will hit +20 HRs anyways, for over $5million…why not just let Murph grow into the role at $500K.
Also, last year there were a grand total of 19 players with 15+ homers, 40+ doubles and a .290+ average.
We really think Murphy has a chance to be in that group?
He might be the most cost-effective option at first base, but let’s not kid ourselves.
If he plays FT? He could
with ~24 games left (roughly 1/6 of a season) he is hitting .259, with 9/29. In 433 ABs too, so really about 2/3 of a season playing everyday.
He has also been hitting better lately, so he could esasily end up at .265 with 12/35.
for a guy in his (effectively) rookie year, that barely played in AA, that is close enough to .280 /15/40 to make me think he could do it next year if he gets 600 ABs.
The way I see it, they will be able to sign one bat and possibly a pitcher (Harang?) at a slightly reduced rate.
They aren’t going to be able to get a big bat at both 1B and LF with their budget. Murph will only get better in the field with another yr (and I have been impressed this yr) so LF is the answer. Yes, Abreu will be another year older, and yes he does not have the power we would necessarily want, but he is an OBP machine, a pretty prolific run producer and he can still swipe 20-30. He also won’t break the bank (8-10 mil). Get Abreu and this is what the lineup looks like
Reyes
Castillo
Abreu
Beltran
Wright
Murphy
Franceour
Catcher
Not murderers row, but great OBP (-Franceour) and could have 5 20 SB players
The Mets problem has never been OBP. In fact at one point earlier in the season we were at the top in OBP. Its driving in those guys who get on base. Matt Holliday must be in LF next year end of story.
I think a lot of this hinges on what the Mets think of Ike Davis and Chris Carter. If they think that one of these guys is their future 1B, then they probably should keep Murphy and see what he has until those guys are ready.
Carter hit 39 homeruns in A+ ball at 21, and 24 HR in AA ball at 22 (1.011 OPS). He was promoted to AAA recently and hit 4 homeruns in 13 games. I realize he was playing in the Calif and Tex leagues, but his .337 BA and .435 OBP in AA is worth noting nonetheless.
Davis hit .309 with 13 HR in 200 ABs (.951 OPS) as a 22 yr old in AA so far this year, giving him 20 HR in 400 ABs between A+ and AA this year.
Those are decent prospects.
Between those guys and Murphy, I think they should let it ride and spend the money elsewhere, especially in spots where they don’t have options on the farm that are close.
I agree that they are more likely to go after a bat for the OF. They can fill in house at 1B.
The only real OF prospect is F Mart, but Francouesr is no lock to be here olong term, and left field is already open. Plus, Beltran only has 2 more years on his deal, and has deteriorating wheels.
So yeah, they can easily squeeze an OF onto the team!
Worst case, they can sign a vet 1B for a year to tide them over. There are always guys like Branyan floating around.
Also, don’t discount the possibility that Omar signs Delgado for another year if he gets no other offers.
they are starting to talk about Kirk Niewenhies (certainly spelled wrong) as a potential replacement in CF for Beltran down the line. Fmart is the most polished Of prospect but there is at least one more, Kirk is in AA i think right now and had a great close to his time in A+ and started hot in AA. Was recently written up on this blog I think as well as hitting BP and Baseball America hot prospects lists
Toby on the mets minors blog has an excellent analysis up about Kirk N, showing why he has exploded recently. basically he started turning on and driving inside fastballs, pulling extra base hits now.
pretty much the same thing murphy has to learn to do!
Kirk also has all the tools to be a ML CF, which is a plus.
thanks for the tip. Great article and nice site. I havent been over there but it looks like a great spot to read up on the system. Thanks Stick
It’s not that I disagree with your analysis but inherent in it is the idea that the fans have to wait for the 1B power hitter to develop and be patient with the team, something they have never been able to do. I’m all for developing from within and giving the farm guys a chance and Murph has a role on this team.
I agree with Neyer however, in that if the Mets aspire to be a championship team then they cannot rely on Murphy to be the starting 1B.
Dont worry guys Omar will give Delgado a 3 year extension.
Mr Z, that ain’t even funny.
Just reading that and I tasted stomach acid!
And we could sign Schmotz as out #2.
Help us, St. Gil! Send us a sign!
Adrian Gonzolez fact:
in his 1st 2 (partial) season with Texas, in a hitters paradise, he had an OPS of ~.670, and 6 RS, in just about 200 ABs.
So yes, sometimes young guys don’t come up and set the world on fire right away, and even (I know this will be incomrehensible to some people), they get better as they go along.
Keep that in mind if you have written off F Mart after 91 Abs at 20 YO! as pitiful as they may have been..
Adrian Gonzalez had a much better pedigree than Daniel Murphy. Adrian was drafted 1st overall, and the fact that he is now an All-Star doesn’t mean that Murphy will be an All-Star just because they both struggled at first. Also, Adrian was only 20/21 when he put up those numbers, and a 3 year difference is pretty big in terms of prospect development. Murphy also was a college draft pick, so it’s more realistic that he could contribute right away. I’m willing to bet that most young ballplayers that have an OPS of 751 over their first 550 ABs do not wind up like Adrian Gonzalez.
I think a more realistic comparison would be a slightly better Ty Wiggington. And I’m not sure that you can win a championship w/ that type of player playing everyday at 1B, especially since better hitters are so prevalent at the position. This year, 20 first basemen have at least 17 homeruns, nearly twice as much as Murph. I understand that the Mets are stacked at non-traditional power positions, but why do we need to settle for Murphy?
Gonzolez was actually 22/23 when he did it, not that it matters too much. He’s also older than reyes, wright and Francouer, proving nothing that I can tell (other than the Mets have a lot of young guys playing now, although they still have this perception of being an old team).
My point was more using it as an example of a guy that is a star now, but had a much less than stellar start to his career. Utley was no great shakes his first couple of season either.
A Gon and Utley also weren’t everyday players until their 3rd year, and both didn’t put up good slugging %s until that year either.
I was really responding to the common perception (or so it seems) that guys are what they are, and you can’t expect them to improve. You see it with Murphy (I know what his numbers are this year, but many people seem to have proejcted them onto next year as some kind of given).
There was also a fair number of people that wrote off F mart already, after 91 ABs at age 20, because he didn’t hit like Ted Williams.
I still think the answer is Adam Dunn. He can fill 1B or LF and he steps in the middle of the lineup and gives them instant power. I like Murphy at 1B and Dunns D is underrated, he isnt very good but he gets the job done.
Reyes SS
Castillo 2B
Beltran CF
Dunn LF
Wright 3B
Francoeur RF
Murphy 1B
Thole/Santos C
I believe that lineup has more than enough ability to get the job done as for pitching thats a whole other situation. I would say sign Lackey but I still dont think thats enough.
Santana
Lackey
Pelfrey
Maine
Perez
Not good enough id say
I also think Dunn could be a strong possibility at a cheaper price-tag. He would certainly add the long ball threat missing from the line-up, outside of Castillo’s second-deck power.
I also believe that first base should be Murphy’s job to lose. He was jerked around this year quite a bit, and still has his head above water. He’s made some mistakes, but he’s also made some very good plays. He is a hitter, and will gain consistency with more time under his belt.
With that OF, I would hope and pray Beltran’s knee’s would hold up next season because both of those corner OF’ers have poor range (Dunn more so than Francoeur).
But I would keep Pagan as a defensive replacement in late innings and I think Francoeur isnt really fast but I think he has good range because he gets good jumps.
I thought I made a comment on this….not sure where it went. Oh well.
I’d give Murphy another shot at 2B over the winter. He would have a lot more value at that position than he would at 1B.
If it doesn’t work out at 2B for Murphy then I do think the Mets could live with some type of platoon at 1B as long as they were able to sign Matt Holliday or aquire another middle of the order hitter in one of the two corner OF spots.
But I don’t think the Mets could live with a platoon at 1B and two platoon type players in the corner OF spots as they do right now with Pagan and Francoeur.
-Lackey is not worth the money he is going to get, the Mets are better served picking up a guy like Piniero who will be relatively inexpensive for the back of the rotation and trading for a #2 starter. Personally Id trade whoever for Halladay and sign him to an extension
-Then make Holliday your big ticket Free Agent
-Leave Murph at first and Thole and Omir behind the plate. At worst sign a defensive guy as a free agent and platoon if Thole isnt ready
-Fix the other holes in house or on the cheap on free agents.
They arent going to spend much, I just hope they dont go the 1 million for this guy, 2 million for that guy approach again. The payroll will be less than $100 mil after arb raises, its not unreasonable to think that they could lower payroll this year and still end up with the best hitter and pitcher on the market
halladay is going to cost a ton to get, and even more to extend. Plus, he is already getiing ~14mil in 2010, so he is also going to count as your expensive FA (probably only getting 1 if any), along with gutting the farm.
Plus, there is the risk of signing a mid 30s SP (one that had arm issues this year) to a LT huge $ deal.
Might be better to trade for a less big name SP that wil lcost much less to get and keep.
everything else in your plan is probably what’s going to happen (although who knows if they will really pony up for Holliday).
Well everyone knows how I feel about Murphy so for the sake of starting an argument I’ll just simply say I 110% agree with Rob Neyer. Murphy is not the answer I’ve been saying it all year. Lets be realistic folks he is a back up 1st baseman/pinch hitter AT BEST! I dont care how many Major League atbats he has had..I go by a little thing called commonsense and you could clearly see what Murphy is. For the record, I said the same exact thing about Lastings Milledge a few years ago. The guy was way to small to be the 30+ home run guy the Mets thought he would be. Unfortunately Murphy is another case of Mets hierarchy over rating a prospect and the fans buying into it…Well not me or Rob I guess ..