According to Yakyu Baka, the Mets and Tigers attended Yusei Kikuchi’s press conference in Japan, during which he announced he will either enter the Japanese draft or sign with a MLB team.
…from what i can gather, the Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Tigers and Braves have all shown interest in kikuchi, dating back to last spring…
“We’ll see what happens after we meet and talk,” Mets scout Isao Ojimi is quoted as saying. “He needs to make a decision he won’t regret.”
The 18–year-old Kikuchi, who is left-handed and reached 95–mph on the radar gun, is expected to be the top pick of the draft if he stays to pitch in Japan, according to the report.
…i’m no scout, but i know this: any 18–year-old kid who can hit 95 mph, and has a curve ball roughly 20–mph slower than that, and who is left-handed, is worth looking in to…
To see video of Kikuchi, click below:
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Would the decision he won’t regret mean not signing with the NY Mets?
OMG, at the 3 minute mark he actually through the Eefus pitch to start the guy off. Sign me up.
Also, I was checking out the mph and he was between 85 and 92.5 mph with the fastball, mixed speeds very well.
The Ephus pitch was pretty awesome.
It would be great to have him develop along side Steven Matz.
Yakyu Baka or Aroldis Chapman? who should we be more interested in?
I would go with Baka since we know he is 18. Chapman is listed as 21 but could be much older than that
Off topic –
I just noticed Matt has a twitter entry linking to an article which lists all first basemen and their UZR/150 in a graphical way.
Matt asks: Is this graphic telling me Daniel Murphy is the 2nd best defensive 1B in the NL?
Matt, the answer is YES! Not only that, it shows that Murphy was significantly better than Teixeira as well. (Take that, Francessa!)
I know. Some are going to pooh-pooh an advanced metric like UZR/150. But before you do, consider that fangraphs found a high correlation between year to year UZR/150 stats as long as the sample size was high …
fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-2008-to-2009
This means the metric is sound and isn’t a result of randomness. FYI, the UZR/150 metric at fangraphs incorporates errors, range and double plays.
Obviously, Murphy has to hit better next year which I think he will. But in terms of defense, he’s already pretty good and no amount of propaganda by Francessa can change that fact. The stats say Francessa is a big fool on this — at least when it comes to Murphy and defense.
Also as i stated yesterday on the Blog about his interview, Historically speaking Power at the 1st base position isn’t a necessity to win a world series, or make it there. And to Francesca YOU CAN”T WIN WITH A PLAYER LIKE HIM, offensively speaking the 1999 Yankees had Tino at 1st when he hit .263 with 28 HR, 27 2b’s and a .341 OBP with 105RBI and in 2000 when he hit .258 16 HR, 37 2b’s and a .328 OBP with91 RBI.
Sorry but those aren’t so much better then Murphy’s .266 12 HR, 38 2b’s, .313OBP. Tino’s OPS was .749 and .800, Murphy’s was .741.
So if both offensivly you can prove he’s good enough, and defensively you can prove he’s good enough….. What is francasca…. Oh yeah Full of S*#T
reality check: Tino had 28 in 1999 and 16 in 2000 so let’s lool at 2000.
The Yankees as a team hit 205 HR and Tino played 161 games. This means that the Yankees AVERAGED 23.6 HRs from the remaing 8 positions. Since the Mets don;t use a DH this means the non-Murphy regulars will need to hit 165 HRs (for a team total of 180) to have a comperable line-up with a team that won 87 games. So, by process of elimination we have the following best case scenarios:
C: 15HR
2B: 5 HRs
SS: 15
3B: 30
CF: 30
RF: 20
———
115 HRs; so LF = 165HR – 125HR = 50HR needed so your “the Yankees won with Tino” comparrison holds water. The reality is that the YANKEES WON IN 2000 IN SPITE OF TINO’S OFFENCE, NOT BECAUSE OF IT.
reality check:
The 2000 Yankees were one of the most juiced-up teams in baseball history and played in a juiced era when runs and HRs were more plentiful.
So the whole context of 2000 vs 2010 is like apples and oranges. Today, you do NOT need a huge power hitting first baseman IF you get power from elsewhere and/or improve run prevention via pitching and defense.
In the juiced era, if the Yankees could win despite a weak Tino, then the Mets can win in a non-juiced era with Murphy.,
1) Who was juiced to Sosa-esque proportions on the 1999/2000 Yankees? They had one guy with over 30HRs.
2) I used 165 HRs. The NL average for 2009 was 155 team HRS. If you exclude the Mets it is an average of 159 team HRs.
BTW, the Yankees had 205 HRs in 2000 with a team average of about 190. Assuming negligant pitcher spot HRS that is around an average of 169 team HRs excluding the DH.
So how is an average of 159 vs an average of 169 apples and oranges?
1) Of those we know about, the following were juiced on the Yankees those years: Canseco, Hill, Justice, Clemens, Neagle, Grimsley. I know some of those are pitchers, but the point is there was clearly a strong culture of PEDs usage on those teams. So that’s probably the tip of the iceberg.
2) The National League average for HRs this year was 155. The Dodgers hit 145 and got into the playoffs. If the Mets get a power hitting LFer, they can expect next year:
C — 15
3B — 25
SS — 15
2nd — 5
LF — 25
CF — 30
RF — 25
Total: 140
That means all you need is 5-15 HRs from first base to bring it up to the NL minimum/norm
3) Apples and oranges … The Yankees hit 205 HRs in 2000 of which only 22 were from the DH. So they hit 183 from non-DH spots. A lot of that was due to PEDs. A juiced up 183 vs. a NL average of 155 today. Apples and oranges.
In addition, if not for the smaller parks today, the disparity would be even greater. For example, CBP and the new Yankee Stadium have served to drive up HRs that steroids testing has depressed.
Pythagorean puts the LAD at 100 – 62. Yes they hit 145 HRs but their pitching won it for them:
ERA+ = 122 (SF#2 at 120, NL = 101)
WHIP = 1.255 (StL #2 at 1.296; NL = 1.378)
Runs allowed: 611 Tied for 1st with SFG.
Plus, their OPS was good enough for 4th.
Looking at ISP = SL% – BA:
LAD: 0.412 – 0.270 = 0.142
NYM: 0.394 – 0.270 = 0.124
NL: 0.409 – 0.259 = 0.150
“Pythagorean puts the LAD at 100 – 62. Yes they hit 145 HRs but their pitching won it for them:”
Exactly. And thanks for reiterating our point (mine and Mark’s) which is you DON’T have to have a set number of HRs to win and make the playoffs.
The idea is to score more than the other team and you can do that by either of two ways — increasing run production or preventing the other team from scoring.
So if the Mets go with Murphy at first, not only are there other spots where they can increase offense (LF, maybe 2nd and catcher) but they can improve defense and pitching as well.
1B is the easiest position to find offense so finding it elsewhere (incremental from C, 2B, …) will be more difficult and ultimately cost more.
Finding offense from 1B is easier than finding the pitching needed to offset the lack of offense. After Santana, and that assumes he is 100%, then what? Where do you find a #1.5 and a #2.5 given the current cast of characters. I think finding a Dunn would be easier than getting Halliday and Lackey + 2B and C with offense or a Holliday (25 – 30 hrs).
Murphy is a 24yo rookie that played good to very good defense at 1B. But he was a 24 yo rookie and they typically do not develop. Yes you can find counterexamples to that statement, but as a rule they do not. Boggs and Appling are the only two 25YO rookies that ever made it. The rest did squat. Grace was a 24YO rookie, but he had a much higher OPS+ than did Murphy.
They would be infinately better off having Murphy go to the WL for 2B and give 1B to Davis next year. At least Davis would get his rookie ABs out of the way faster and Murphy cannot be that much worse than Castillo defensively. Murphy’s offense at 2B (while not Joe Morgan) would be a major positive.
If they are serious Murphy cannot be penciled in as their 2010 1B. It is the easiest position to locate servicable offense. It is the low hanging fruit. Given that Murphy was #22 or 23 in OPS that, IMHO, is not servicable offense.
The Twins didn’t win with Meinkotvich (sp???). They won in spite of him. Big difference.
You make all these proclamations as if they are fact but in most cases are simply just your opinion or simply a situation that is not always borne out. For example:
1) You say 1B is the easiest to find offense for, but that is not the case if Omar can’t get a Dunn-Fielder-Gonzalez. When you move down to the 2nd tier of first basemen you have to take into account any hit on defense vs. a marginal uptick in offense vs. the upside of a young player like Murphy. Omar may be able to more easily upgrade catcher, 2nd or LF than first base. It all depends on what’s on the market each year and how well a farm system matches with a potential trade partner.
2) I think upgrading the pitching through a Lackey, middle reliever or even a Marquis might be easier than getting a power-hitting first baseman.
3) The statement that 24-year-old rookies do not develop is patently ludicrous. I can’t believe someone would make a statement like that.
4) The idea that you can pencil in Davis right now as the starting first basemen for next year is also ludicrous. You can start with Murphy and if he struggles and Davis starts off well, then you consider bringing him up in June and making him the first baseman. Not now after less than a year at AA.
5) Francessa’s comment that “you can’t win with Murphy at first” which you are parroting is frankly just an opinion, a bunch of bull, and patently false. You CAN win. As we said, it all depends what they do elsewhere.
BTW, Helton had just 15 HRs this year and Loney had just 13. Moreover, Loney’s OPS wasn’t much higher than Murphy’s. Francessa is just dead wrong.
Hey, we know you don’t like Murphy. Lets just wait and see what Omar can do at other positions before c
cont’d …
Let’s just wait and see what Omar can do at other positions before making these cut-and-dried statements about what the Mets can and cannot do with Murphy at first.
That was pretty much my point. They won in spite of his offense. This is because Francesca said you can’t win with a player like Daniel Murphy. A perfect compliment player when i kept digging was Tino Martinez in those 2 specific years. He had a low batting average, low on base percentage, and especially in 2000 he hit for almost no power.
So what you said actually proves what i was talking about even more. You can win with a lack luster offensive first baseman, if you have the offense at other positions. It has happened plenty over the years. This is why i say if you Sign Holliday to man LF you should have plenty of power production. Especially if you upgrade 2nd base with Hudson. You should have LF, CF, RF, 3rd who all should have 20+ hr’s. Throw in 15 from SS, 2nd and 1st and 10 from catcher you should have plenty of HR’s.
First – you need to make that clearer.
Second – with Hudson and Holliday you are probably looking at around 140hrs. With that amount they need a 1.5 their #2 spot and maybe a 2.5 for their #3 spot.
BTW, the Yankees had 98W in 1999 (Tino: 28HR) and 87W in 2000 (Tino: 16HR). They did win the division both years but the RS had a similar drop off from 1999 to 2000. FYI: you’re looking at a .859OPS Mike Stanley in 1999 to a .764OPS Brian Daubach in 2000.
mark, I agree, especially with your point about Tino.
Francessa is on this illogical jihad against Murphy … just like he was railing against D. Wright all last winter.
The pity is that some Mets fans buy into his tripe. I hope Mets management is smarter than that, but sometimes I wonder if they let talk radio influence them too much.
More about UZR/150 —
It represents the number of runs above or below average a player is on defense per 150 games played.
For example, Murphy’s UZR/150 this year is +5.2. So his defense saved his team 5.2 runs vs. an average first baseman over the course of 150 games. Teixeira this year was -0.7. Nick Johnson (a Francessa favorite) was at -5.2.
This is the guy we should go for, not Chapman.
Get both….. Give yourself the most options possible.
I don’t think that the Mets have the cash to net both, especially since they will have to pay their number 6 pick next draft. Chapman also wants more money than he deserves to see, especially taking into account he can’t find the strike zone and he is further along in his development than Kikichi.
Chapman is 21yo. That assumes it is the correct age. Given prior experience with DOBs on Cuban exiles that may be wishful thinking.
Assuming he is 21 where does he go? AAA? AA? A? ??? If it is below AA it is insane. You are paying something like #1-5 pick money to a 21 YO whose vetting is with the Cuban teams.
Regarding Kikuchi – name one Japanese pitcher to really last more than a year. Again, there is no real vetting.
At least with US HS and College there is a vetting process where they play under similar rules, field dimensions, known competition, exhaustive data on how they will fare, known health, …
I would welcome both, but assuming the benjamins are not there, it has to be Chapman, based upon his WBC outings alone. They are both lefties, but Chapman seems to throw significantly harder, and has a good offspeed pitch to boot. The real seller to me is, even though it was in spring training, Chapman showed the ability to make top tier Major League hitters look foolish.
Chapman is also older. It can be said that he has more of a pitcher’s type body with the length, but this Kikuchi kid hasn’t even filled in. Noting that Japanese players usually aren’t large in stature, but he’s 18. I liked his fluid motion, and I think with the discipline and structure in which they develop in Japan, he may end up more teachable, proving out to be more valuable in the end.
The attractive pick is always to go for the big guy who can hurl. We need somebody who can develop into a pitcher….more than a thrower
To add on to what you are saying. Baseballprospectus had done a piece on him warning that his peripheral numbers did not translate well. His numbers in the Cuban league were not that all impressive aside from his high K rate. The Cuban league is seen as the equivalent to single A ball in the states. I will post them here later. Work in getting in the way of Metsblog.
This kid is hitting 94-96 in this video IN THE 9TH INNING!! He’s blowing these guys away:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex_oahn_LS4&feature=related
ugh Japanese players, i just have no faith in these guys in the majors.
The smaller players also tend to break down physically. And if the Cuban league compares to single A, what does that make the Japanese league? I guess it is always risky in terms of internationals. It seems the Mets have delved into the Japan well too many times, and have come up on the short end of the stick (as have most teams, the dropoff in production amongst Japanese players save for a guy like Ichiro is astounding). I am not saying I do not like this guy, but the hitters he is facing could be garbage. I am not as privy on the quality of Cuban players, but I do know Chapman looked nice in the WBC, where the talent he was facing was better than Kikuchi’s foes.
And I never was a fan of the pitcher vs. thrower debate. I am on the other side of the fence. Too often, egomaniacal pithing coaches like Peterson get their claws on prospects, and push them into becoming “pitchers.” The result is a sharp drop in velocity. Even since Rick, look at Pelfrey and Perez, where did their fastballs go?? Perez used to hit 93-95, I remember Pelfrey in Binghamton hitting 96-97. Furthermore, guys like Figueroa and Livan get hit hard on average. Seems like the Mets could use more “throwers” with high celings. In the gamut of “pitchers,” you can find your Madduxes but you can also find Trachsel, junkballers who need every pitch to be perfect as to avoid getting hammered. Meanwhile, guys like Lincecum, King Felix, Verlander, Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Greinke, etc. are doing fine as power throwers (I consider gas and a curve and one other pitch to represent a power pither, while a medium FB with a slider and change to be a “pitcher.”) Under Met development, more guys are molded into generic “pitchers,” which then results in mediocrity. Why hasn’t someone taught Maine a curveball yet? His changeup is just a slow fastball…
On the contrary….though Lincecum, Beckett, and Greinke do throw gas…..they “pitch”. Pitching referring to knowing what to throw and when to throw it. Nolan Ryan was a thrower with a great deuce for years and though he’s in the hall, he was just over a .500 pitcher….any guesses? He threw. No disrespect to Mr. Ryan, and in no way am I comparing anyone mentioned to him, but seriously? We need throwers with power arms? Pelfrey still hits 95 on the gun and last time I checked, that’s pretty hard. Perez has had a drop in velocity, but he just throws the ball with an occasional flash of brilliance.
I would rather find somebody who knows how to work in and out….change speed….work the batter than someone with a “high ceiling” just because he blows up the radar. MPH is an overrated number that at the end of the day can or can’t translate to W/L. Pedro used to hurl mid to upper 90’s….now what? We need pitchers….not just guys who throw what the catcher calls. That’s why Johan is so dominating. His changeup is sick even though his velocity isn’t what it used to be. He knows how to work the plate, and use what he’s got to the best….even on off days. He doesn’t try to overpower guys with the MPH.
Johan is not nearly as dominating as he used to be. Without useless micronumbers, just consider the fact that when the Mets jump out to a small lead, there is not an overwhelmingly confident feeling that he will hold it ala the Unit or Pedro in their primes. He can always be hit up for multiple runs in an inning. He is still a viable ace, but no longer a top 5 guy in the game. MPH to me is not overrated at all. Obviously, if given the choice I would want a combo of both, but otherwise, the general rule is secondary pitches and control can be taught, velocity cannot. Ponder this- how many guys who threw 95 plus lost on a consistent basis?? Sorry, to totally discard velocity is crazy. I think offspeed pitches need to be setup by a good heater, not the other way around. For every Maddux, there is a Trachsel.
So when is someone going to teach Ollie control? When is he going to decide he wants to learn it?
Honestly, I don’t think it’s impossible to teach control or for someone to learn it.. But it certainly ain’t easy.
Fair, this is where good pitching coaches are particularly useful. On the flipside, don’t you wish someone would tell soft tossers or aging starters like Moyer that it would be nice if they could be less predictable and pitch inside if their fastballs rose about 10 mph on the gun? I think the latter scenario is a little bit harder to resolve. Perez is certainly an enigma, even moreso now that he lost his heat, but he is the extreme.
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