In a report in today’s Denver Post, Troy Renck takes a look at the Rockies off-seasons plans now that their season has come to a close.
Renck says that with the impending return of Jeff Francis, who missed the entire 2009 season with a shoulder injury, that New York native Jason Marquis is not expected to return to Colorado next year.
…Marquis is coming off a solid season with the Rockies…he won 15 games which marks the sixth season in a row where he has won more than 11, he pitched more than 200 innings this season and averaged almost 6 2/3 innings per start…he would be an intriguing candidate as a solid number 3 starter for the Mets, but i don’t think he should be considered a solution for their number 2 hole…
In addition, Renck looks closely at the situation with outfielder Brad Hawpe, who got only four at-bats against the Phillies in the Division Series and that he will likely be shopped by the Rockies this winter.
…i like Hawpe, but the fact that he was out of the lineup against all of the Phillies left handed starters raises a flag to me…then again, the strategy didn’t necessarily payoff for the Rockies despite Hawpe’s .243 average against left handed pitching in 2009…
Hawpe will make $7.5 million in 2010, with a team option of $10 million which could be voided if he is traded.
{ 23 comments }
I like Marquis too but we need a number two, if they get Halladay and Marquis that would be ideal.
Hawpe is interesting.
I agree on Marquis as a solid #3 option.
Hawpe is interesting, but doesn’t supply the power we are lacking. In fact, going from Coors to Citi Field, Hawpe (who has seen his power numbers decline for 3 straight years) might only be a 15-18 homerun type guy with a .280 average. A nice complimentary player, but we seem to be stockpiling those (Franceour, for example)
I’d like to see Marquis brought in too, and to be honest if we dont have the $$ for a number 2, I think we could be ok for next year if we can get a Holliday and then Marquis & Wolf.
The pitching staff wont WOW anyone, but at least you have some consistency. Something we clearly have lacked.
Santana
Marquis
Wolf
Pelf
Perez/Maine
They need a superstar hitter and a superstar pitcher – Marquis would be a nice compliment to Halladay or another #1 via trade (but not Lackey, please not Lackey).
marquis could be a good #3 starter for us, but only on a 2 year deal.
I read somewhere that the mets should find 3-4 good offensive players instead of one superstar. hawpe could be a decent addition, only if we get a catcher like molina who can hit and a better offensive 2B. what do you guys think about that?
I think your theory would work, and where you read about this may actually have been one of my posts where I pointed out how teams like the Angels, Rockies, Dodgers, and Red Sox made it to the playoffs with more emphasis on a well-rounded lineup and solid pitching as opposed to a few mashers (Manny had a great OBP but posted a .290 BA with 19 HR this year).
In order to attain this goal, you have to get your OPS+ numbers up around 100-120 for the majority of your lineup.
Guys who qualified in 2009:
Wright 121
Sheffield 117
Beltran 141
Franceour 118
Tatis 104
Pagan 116
Delgado 139
Guys who did not:
Reyes 98 (close)
Murphy 94 (fairly close with his late push)
Castillo 96 (fairly close)
Santos 80
Schneider 65
and a bunch of other guys between terrible (Fernando Martinez at a 37 OPS+ and pretty decent such as Thole at 99)
Santos is a backup catcher … period. Any scenario where he is getting more than 250 ABs a year means trouble. Looking at all of the 2010 free agent options, none of them really impress me, they are all in the 80 OPS+ range. Thole posted a 99 this year, and though he’s probably due for a little setback, if Santos and Thole platooned and gave you a combined OPS+ of around 80, it wont kill you, but it’s not going to help you either.
Murphy had a 110 OPS+ (.800 OPS) in the second half. While I don’t expect him to come out in 2009 and post a .900 OPS, I think he’s capable of posting a .280+ average with 15-18 HR and a lot of XBH. He wont hurt you if you upgrade elsewhere as his OPS+ is likely to be over 100, but there is room to upgrade there if you have no other choice.
Castillo’s 96 OPS+ is disappointing, and if anything it shows me that we need to sell high right now on him. He’s a one dimensional player (OBP) and his .346 slugging percentage just isn’t good enough to accomodate a guy who no longer has speed or range in the field. Castillo had 12 doubles and 1 HR last season … his offense is a paper tiger.
Pagan was actually somewhat productive in LF this year with an OPS+ of 116. That’s actually solid for a starting LF even. How many of us are sure he can keep that pace up, however? Tatis is always good for a solid 750+ OPS as well, and hustles and can play anywhere. I like Tatis and Pagan as your bench options. Pagan can play all 3 OF positions and Tatis can play all 4 corners.
Hawpe’s 130 OPS+ would be very helpful to this team, and in all honesty, it might make the most sense to say good bye to Franceour (who I like as a player, but not a producer) to make room for Hawpe. Ironically, no one runs on Hawpe’s arm either, and the idea of Hawpe and Francouer in the corners is appealing if for no other reason than you’d have the best outfield arms in baseball with Beltran’s decent arm included.
OB, I’m having some fun with this…
Would you rather have a guy with a lifetime ERA+ of 90, or a guy with a lifetime OBP+ of 120?
That depends :)
For starters, ERA+ for starters is harder to come by than OPS+ for position players. The reason is that relievers tend to drive down the ERA+ of starters, so a starter with a 100 ERA+ is actually pretty good, probably closer to a position player with an OPS+ of 115.
Given the options you lay out here, I would take the 120 OPS+ hitter over the 90 ERA+ pitcher, but it would also depend on trends. For instance, one guy may be declining and the other guy on the rise.
Are you talking about Hawpe versus Pelfrey? :)
To make my case, every position player on the Yankees has an OPS+ between 123 and 146 (with Melky Cabrera the one exception).
Andy Pettitte has been good this year (14-8 with a 4.14 ERA), but his ERA+ is 107. AJ Burnett is similar.
Nick Swisher hit .249 this year with 29 HR and an .869 OPS and his OPS+ is 126.
I’d rather have the year that Pettitte provided than the year that Swisher provided, yet the OPS+ and ERA+ are about 20 points apart in the other direction.
OB, somewhat of a trick question. I was atlking about Micah Owings
Good stuff :)
I like the Hawpe idea as long as we get somebody else too. He’s a 20/80-85 guy which is fine. Similar power to LaRoche. As long as we upgrade at a few positions we’ll be ok with our other guys coming back.
Staring pitching will be a big key though. Absolutely no way we can again rely on Maine, Pelf and Perez to be 3 fifths of our rotation in 2010. I’m done with hoping about those guys. We need consistent starters. Even if they’re not aces we need guys who will go 6 or 7 and keep us in the game without getting hurt and walking a batter an inning.
Please! This team has the market cornered on #3 starters – Maine, Perez, Pelfrey. What this team needs is a #2 starter.
I think the obsession with sloting guys (#2, #3, etc.) can get out of hand. I just want to see a solid, respectable, ML quality starter go out there every game. Hey, it worked in 2006! COmbine that with a solid offense, strong defense, and a deep pen, and there you go.
frankly, if maine/pelfrey/perez are all #3s, and you add a guy like Marquis or wolf (another #3 according to this thread), with Johan being a #1, that is very good for a rotation.
I would rather have a 1 and 4-#3s then a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, with the 5 being someone like Livan or Figgy. Whatever you get with the upgrade from a 3 to a 2 (if there even is one) you likely lose with the drop from a 3 to a 5!
or do it mathmatically. of each = 15. a 1, and 4-3s = 13. Lower number wins!
I think slotting your pitchers is similar to having a guy hit leadoff. He is guaranteed to do it once per game. It’s a fluke if he does it more than twice in a game. Opening day, 1’s square off, game 2, #2’s square off, etc. For the most part by the end of the first week, 1’s draw 2’s or 5’s and it gets crazy. The problem with a bunch of 3s is that half of the time you are drawing favorable matchups, and the other half your drawing less favorable matchups. And because 3s don’t go far into games, you are killing your bullpen. And I’m sorry, Maine (95), Perez (62) & Pelfrey (83) did not pitch like 3s this season
#3 starters – Maine, Perez, Pelfrey? If only they were. They’re more like 4, 5, 5.
4,4,4
I think there’s a lot to be said for the fact that Marquis has made the playoffs in every year of his career, or has that long streak going (I’m not sure which)
I also like this idea of all 100+ OPS+ guys instead of mashers, but you have to remember, the Dodgers did actually have a few mashers in Ethier and Kemp, who each had 30/100 seasons.
That being said, the 100+ OPS+ guys you come up with have to be different players, because the squad needs at the very least a cultural change in support players.
Some of it is just good luck, playing on some good teams in an overall hideous NL. I think it’s more interesting that his manager basically skipped his start in the post season.
I’ve always found Marquis to be highly overrated and over-opinionated on his “skills”. He makes for a nice back of the rotation guy if his salary / years are very low.
Matt Kemp hit .297 with 26 HR … not exactly a “masher”. He didn’t even have a SLG of .500. Ethier hit .272 with 31 HR. Both guys had an OPS+ of around 120, which is good, but not what I would call a masher.
For comparison, Albert Pujols had an OPS+ of 188. Ryan Howard was 140. Utley has been in the 135-140 range for the last 3 years (as a 2B no less). Those are mashers.
I think Beltran and Wright are easily capable of matching Ethier and Kemp’s numbers as-is, so we’re not that far away.
Yea Marquis has a way of making the playoffs every year and then not pitching in them b/c he sucks. This guy would be the biggest waste of money the Mets could spend on a pitcher. We don’t need an overpaid Livin Hernandez. We need a solid #2 behind Johan. Anyone thinking Marquis can compliment Johan or would be better than Pelfrey or Maine are kidding themselves or haven’t really watched this guy pitch over the years.
So on a good team Marquis is a #4? What would that say about our staff if we slotted him higher? Would he get tougher assignments? Would his victory totals go down?
Marquis is a back-end of the rotation guy. He is not the solution to the Mets pitching problems. IMO the Mets should use our pieces to get us DOC and then sign Ben Sheets. If Sheets stays healthy, which is obviousally a HUGE if you have 3 ACES on your staff. If Minaya overpays for an average pitcher in Marquis he should be fired on the spot…. I don’t care how many games he has won…..Marquis is not the answer to the Mets pitching woes by any means. TRADE FOR DOC AND SIGN BEN SHEETS!
Santana
Doc
BEN SHEETS!!!!!!!!!
Pelfrey
Perez (Maine)
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