Joe Janish of Mets Today gives a detailed review of Omir Santos, asking, while he is a good back-up, is he a ‘strong enough all-around to catch regularly for a championship club.’
Santos hit .261 in 74 games as a starting catcher, while batting .235 as a sub.
“He has played extremely well for us for a period of time,” Jerry Manuel said, regarding Santos, at the end of the season. “How that would manifest itself over the course of a year is still somewhat unknown.”
…i think santos showed he can be a .250 hitter, whether he’s a starter or a back up, complete with a few hot and cold streaks to sway opinion… he puts the ball in play, and keeps the line moving, but he is border-line useless when behind in the count… also, he is a much better hitter against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching… interestingly, santos ranks as the fifth-best defensive catcher in baseball, according to these fancy stats on Beyond the Boxscore… janish paints a less exciting picture of omir’s receiving skills, basically saying, ‘he is below average to average in all areas,’ and a ‘so-so game-caller,’ according to some team insiders… according to my eyes, santos is good, not great, i have seen better and i have seen worse… i think he’s fine, but i believe the Mets would like to have someone to turn to on the roster who is better…
This off season, free-agent catchers will include: Rod Barajas, Josh Bard, Toby Hall, Jason Kendall, Benjie Molina, Ivan Rodriguez and Vance Wilson, among others.
…unless they trade for an every-day starting catcher, i still feel like the Mets will pursue barajas or pudge, though i have no reason to think that, other than they fit with what i suspect they’ll be looking for…
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Depends. Santos is what he is, and it really depends on how good his surrounding cast is. He’s an offensive liability, and that needs to be accounted for.
If the other 7 hitters are that good, you can get away with an Omir Santos as your starting catcher. If not, you need more from the position.
Carlos Ruiz hit .255 this uear in 322 ABs, with 9 HR and the Phillies are in the World Series. so I believe that answers your questions.
Having said that, Ruiz posted a very impressive .355 OBP which brought his OPS up to .780. He’s a similar hitter (with better plate discipline) than Santos, and in my opinion, Ruiz is better defensively as well.
If Molina will take a shortened contract, why not go after him? The guy can hit and batted clean up for the Giants. I realize his age would be a concern, hence the short contract (anywhere from 1 to 3 yrs). That should give enough time for Thole to develop and, eventually, take over.
Plus, you could always use Santos as a reliever for Molina. I don’t know if Santos is an every day player but he’s certainly a formidable backup.
I completely agree with you Nicky. I much rather bring in a veteran catcher like Bengie Molina who has won before. I dont think rolling the dice at catcher with Santos is smart on a win now team.
Exactly. Omir may turn into a Ruiz in a year or 2. He may also turn into Barry Lyons. Fact is, you are right, if we add Holliday, we can live with Santos and Thole (or whomever). To me, Catcher is the last thing we need to upgrade. Quite frankly, I like Santos’s fire but if we have money, yes upgrade.
sign holliday and molina. then sign garland/wolf and marquis. The rotation wont dominate but it would be very consistent and the lineup would be significantly better.
We need Lackey PLUS those two offense acquisitions you mentioned. Also adding Audrey Huff on a short term deal would be a good idea as well.
We can’t go into another season with Johan Santana and 4 average pitchers.
100 percent agreed Lorenzo. You dont win with 4 average pitchers in the postseason. Lackey, a legit number two is what we need but hes not worth the 5 years 100 million thats absurd please gimme a break
I agree with you about that contract. I cant see anybody in this economy throwing 100 million at Lackey especially with the Yankees probably out of the bidding.
miguel olivo is also a free agent. I think he wont cost a lot and he has good power.
There are no good catchers available. A lot of really good teams, like the Red Sox, have terrible catchers. The Mets have so many other problems, that I can’t get worked up about the fact that Santos is terrible (and he is, in fact, terrible).
As long as they don’t do something dumb like sign Molina, I’m fine.
And I also think it’s impossible to judge a catcher on “handling pitchers” and things like that. What does that mean?
Uh, V.Martinez…terrible?
Fair enough. I was more thinking of Varitek, who’s been terrible for about 3 years now while the team has been great.
I also wanted to point out that I anticipate regression on the part of Santos next year.
Santos is going to be 29 years of age next season, and in all of his years bouncing around on the farm he has never even posted a cumulative .700 OPS. His career line is roughly .250, with a .300 OBP and a Castillo-like .348 slugging percentage. He hit 7 homeruns for the Mets last year, but only hit 1 double. He’s never even posted a .400 SLG in a full year (aside from his Staten Island Yankees 2002 season where he hit 7 HR and had a .422 slugging percentage, but that was 7 years ago).
Santos is probably going to give you something like .240/.285/.350 next year, which probably isn’t worth the trouble.
The more I think about it, the Mets have no choice, they have to acquire a catcher for 2010. Molina will be 35 next year and doesn’t stay in the same kind of shape that Pudge does, you might be able to work out a modest 2 year deal with him. Expectations shouldn’t be too high though, he may be essentially a Ramon Castro type hitter (15 HR pop).
The Mets badly need Thole to blossom to his max potential, and that is asking for a lot.
By the way, Thole has flown through the system and posted an OPS over .800 in each of his last two stops (A+ in 2008 at age 21, and AA in 2009 before his call up at age 22).
It appears that Thole can probably carry a .340 or better OBP in his sleep at the Major League level based on his .380 minor league OBP number – the kid can draw walks. So as long as he can play defense, I think we need to give him every chance.
I want Miguel Olivo. The guy will hit 15 to 20 HR’s, with a 250 BA and a putrid 300 OBP.
But just knowing that someone at the bottom of the lineup has the chance to clear the bases is exciting. He’s younger and cheaper then Molina, plus Molina is a type A and Olivo a B. Also Miguel tried to fight Reyes and everyone is saying we need more fight so there you go. Haha seriously I woud like Olivo.
plus he is a good defender, I think he is the best choice out there.
Olivo is supposedly a terrible catcher. Read this article:
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in
That’s why he DH’s so much, because he can actually hit, but can’t catch.
oh..I think I heard on espn that he was a good defender, but is he really terrible? if yes pass on him.
i would like to see less ‘jerry manual says’ …i doubt his expertise…
haha, great point.
but i think it can be a useful tool. “Jerry Manuel says the sky is blue.”
ergo, “The sky is gray”
Maybe this is a hole that can be filled via trade this offseason. I’m not saying this is even a possibility, but I wouldn’t mind if the Mets look into the availability of a guy like Russell Martin who is coming off an awful year. I’m fairly certain the Dodgers aren’t ready to move him based on last year’s numbers, but it never hurts to look into these sorts of things. I guess I say this because the crop of free agent catchers doesn’t seem to be much of an upgrade to our current internal options.
I think what needs to be looked at here is return on investment. Yes, there may be marginally better options at catcher out there, but what contracts will they be looking for?
IMHO, stick with Santos/Thole/whomever for now and work on other priorities.
Focusing on catcher now is like wallpapering the bathroom when your windows are broken.
I’m not sure that is true.
My realistic estimates for next year would be as follows:
Molina: .275, 16 HR, 70 RBI
Santos: .240, 6 HR, 30 RBI
I think that is a noteworthy upgrade, and I’m not even that big of a Molina fan considering his age.
Obviously Holliday and a starting pitcher is your top priority, but adding a catcher that can hit .270 at the ML level and provide XBH power is also a significant hole plugged.
I do like Thole, however, and think that a Molina/Thole platoon is a win/win.
I think that’s aiming high for Molina, especially considering a move to Citi, IMHO, .260 / 13 / 60 is more realistic. Plus, you’re undercutting a Santos/Thole other player production.
Thing is, even if you’re right, what will that cost? Right now, Santos/Thole is very affordable and could grow into those Molina numbers at, what, 1/5 the cost?
I think .260/13 is probably on the low end of what you would get out of Molina, but it absolutely may be correct.
However, on Santos, if you read my post above on his minor league track record (and the fact that he’s never even posted a .700 OPS anywhere), I don’t think .240/6 is that far from what you might get. In fact, .225/3 is very possible for Santos.
I see Thole as irrelevant to the discussion because I think he platoons with either option so that offsets itself.
As for the cost, that is really the trick, right? Is Molina going to hold out for big time money just because he thinks he is better than he is (which was not helped by the fact that he hit cleanup for a weak offense and probably feels like a slugger)? Or is he going to realize that he is 35, on his way out, and willing to take a reasonable salary to finish up in a prime time spot like NYC where he can be part of the formula that turns the team around?
He was listed at 6.5 million in salary last year, and for 80 RBI, that actually isn’t too bad. Would he take 8MM over 2 years? Would 4M per year be worth it? What’s the magic price point to bring in a potential 15+ HR catcher that has a history of hitting in the clutch?
Not trying to be hostile, and I really liked your post, but you are dreaming if you think Molina will take $4 million per.
The guy batted clean-up for a team that was in the mix for the playoffs until the end.
I’m not convinced that the drop-off in HRs will be that severe in Citi Field either. I still see him as a 15 HR guy who can possibly pop 20 if things work out.
Passing on a clubhouse leader, 80+ RBI and 15+ HR, 25 2B guy is just a bad idea. I’d take him for anything under $8 million per.
Even if it jeopardizes a Lackey/Holliday/Harden/Sheets sighing or a crawford trade?
Keep in mind, there aren’t endless dollars. With the money coming off the books, an 8MM Molina signing could inpact one of the above, perhaps even take the place of a Sheets/Harden/Bedard type.
To me, it’s not worth it. i’d rather:
Crawford
Castillo
Reyes
Wright
Beltran
Franceour
Murphy
Santos/Thole
Santana
Lackey
Pelfrey
OP
Maine/Niese/Nieve/Sheets/Harden
Than
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Holliday
Beltran
Molina
Franceour
Murphy
Santana
Pelfrey
OP
Maine
Niese/Nieve/Sheets/Harden
He was a cleanup hitter, but he hit .270 with an OBP below .300 and only 16 HR. That makes Daniel Murphy a cleanup hitter too :)
I hear what you are saying, however. I think he probably needs 5-6M per year in a 2 year deal minimum to sign anywhere, but I don’t know if he’s going to get 8 (or more) in a multi-year deal with Daniel Murphy type numbers.
I like him anyway, I think he’s due for a rebound year.
only if thole was ready defensively, I really liked his bat.
Santos is fine. He’s not the worst he’s not the best. I don’t know if we can depend on Thole for an entire year, are we going to be that much stock in minor league numbers and a September call up? remember that f-mart had great numbers in AAA and didn’t exactly rake when he came up here, it’s just not prudent to depend on a kid to be the starting catcher here. We need a veteran who can call a good game, play good defense, and possibly get a few hits. I agree bengie molina might be a good choice but only at the right price. I don’t really like him but I think he’s a good choice. Let’s give the kid more time in AAA.
“is he a ‘strong enough all-around to catch regularly for a championship club.”
I doubt Omir’s ability to be a regular catcher on a .500 team, he certainly isn’t a good idea to be anything more than a backup on a winning team.
They should definitely make a run at upgrading the catching position, not because it is a high priority, but because a nice number of options are out there. Molina and Olivo would be nice, but some others would also provide a nice boost.
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