In a notes column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes:
“The Mets need a righthanded-hitting outfielder with power, but who would take that job in that ballpark, a death valley for righthanded hitters?”
…this is not good… it isn’t… the Mets CANNOT allow reporters, fans and agents to spread the idea that right-handed hitters can’t hit for power in Citi Field… it hurts the team’s ability to sign a free-agent like Matt Holliday or Jason Bay… because, the thing is, in reality, there is just no evidence that Citi Field killed home runs in 2009…
For what it’s worth, according to MLB Park Factors on ESPN.com, 18 other ballparks were more difficult to hit a home run in than Citi Field, including Fenway Park.
…the Mets lack of home run hitters killed home runs in Citi Field, not the ballpark…
The Mets were last in the National League in home runs.
…but, let’s say Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran would have hit at least 25 home runs each this season… they probably would have hit more… but, just add those missing 50, and the Mets jump up to the middle of the pack in total team home runs… boom, two players, middle of the pack… by the way, remove Ryan Howard and Jason Werth, philly’s two biggest home run hitters, and they drop from most home runs in the NL to middle of the pack as well…
Speaking of the Phillies, they hit 14 home runs in nine games against Mets pitching in Citi Field… They hit 10 against Mets pitching in hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park.
Meanwhile, the Mets hit seven home runs in nine games played at Citizen’s Bank Park, but hit NINE home runs in nine games against the Phillies in Citi Field.
…in other words, if you go by just Mets-Phillies, and the 18 games played against one another, they hit MORE home runs in Citi Field than in Citizen’s Bank Park…
Similarly, the Mets hit more home runs in Citi Field than they hit in the same number of games on the road all season.
…i could not find a Hit Location stat for balls pulled by right-handed hitters in Citi 
Field… however, for the season, home and away, if a righthanded batter for the Mets pulled the ball, there was an 18 percent chance it was a home run… for the Phillies, it was 22 percent…
…in short, if the Mets had delgado, beltran and, say, Matt Holliday in left, i am pretty sure there would be ZERO talk of a problem hitting home runs in Citi Field, because, beltran, delgado and holliday will hit a lot of home runs, and Daniel Murphy, Angel Pagan and Fernando Tatis will not…
…of course, nobody, specifically holliday, would know this, if they only listen to the likes of cafardo, and the popular, misleading talking points about Citi Field going around baseball…
By the way, Cafardo also writes about the post-season schedule, a potential change to draft pick compensation, an international draft, and small-market spending, all of which you can read here.
{ 26 comments }
Nick Cafardo is a fool. The guy barely knows anything about the Red Sox, the team he’s paid to cover, let alone the Mets.
Nice rebuttal Matt.
Dwright was effected by the park, but that’s because of the style in which he hits; he is very good hitting for power going the other way, which doesn’t work well in RCF at Citi. Add that to him changing his batting mechanics and he himself is to blame more-so than the park.
Fenway turns outs into singles and some line drive HRs into doubles off the monstah…but Fenway has a HUGE CF and RCF canyon, just like Citi.
Wright hit more HRs at Diti than on the road. At best he had an off year but to put the blame soley on Citi is incorrect.
agreed, thats why I put the blame more on wright than Citi…he is the one that changed his swing. But still, his strengths do play to this park, just not for HRs…he’s great at going the other way and has power the other way, but in this park he lost more than a few HRs, and that has been proven.
ugh, thanks for reminding me of the nightmares of having Dmurph, Tatis, and Pagan all in the lineup together…wow we sucked this year lol.
and at times, they were the best hitters in the lineup…
Luis Castillo being the best and most consistent bat in the lineup is all you have to say about the NY Mets 2009 season.
When you lose for parts of the season all-star quality players like, Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Delgado …. Lose from the rotation, Maine, Ollie, Johan.
Throw in replacements that were performing well and also got hurt like Sheff, Cora, Neise, Nieve.
It’s a recipe for disaster. It happened and it’s over, lets hope they make the right plays in Free Agency and Fill the gaping void that has been in LF for going on 5 years since Floyd’s one healthy season. Get a complimentary top of the rotation starter, and maybe another reliable starter. Fill in the catching position, and hopefully a new 2nd baseman.
you know, honestly, if we can add a solid #3-type SP (I want Lackey, but I dont think we’ll get him) and we can somehow someway sign Holliday…throw in a few bargain-bin Omar specialties, while keeping the farm system somewhat in tact…we can enter the season better off than last year. Big reason being that our minor leagues are growing…slowly, but still they are improving. There may actually be minor league help next season, hopefully not needed, but point is, there is some hope there.
Agreed starz.
That’s why all these trading for guys just doesn’t make lots of sense. Why trade for Crawford when you can spend money to fix that same problem. Why trade for a pitcher when there are a plethora of options that are pretty solid on the open market. Same with a platoon/part-time catcher.
There is no immediate need to send prospects to another team. I’m fine sending fringe guys away. But I don’t want to be dealing the top prospects that can possibly help this year or next like Mejia, Holt, Neise, F-Mart, Tejada, Davis.
If the Mets spend the entire off-season thinking about who is going to play right field and don’t do anything about their pitching staff, we’re in for a long 2010. Is Pelfrey really going to be our #2 again this year? Really? Really? I want John Lackey and/or Joel Pinero.
thats for sure… because RF is already set…we need a LFer though ;)
Mark -
Your comment about Castillo just about says it all. Castillo played a capable defense at second base and was an on-base machine. Unfortunately, as currently constituted, this ballclub does not have the luxury to pencil in Castillo at 2nd base due to his limited power. We should trade and cash him for a pitching prospect or two to an AL Club that can carry his bat, but needs his very high OBP.
Here’s an argument for Daniel Murphy:
Daniel Murphy should be given a clear and unequivocal shot at firstbase for a full year. Statistically, he WAS the second best 1st baseman in the NL. One would think, with DM’s work ethic, that his ability at the position will improve given that his first year was learned on the fly.
Murphy also demonstrated a an arm and a range in the field worthy of consideration as the Mets 2nd baseman, if the club finds a better candidate for 1st base. I’m in favor of signing Figgins and making 2b worth his while in dollars. I am somewhat pursuaded that my other method of enhancing 2b, acquiring Brandon Phillips via trade, likely would cost too many prospects.
At the plate, Murphy’s statistics last season, his first full year, compare favorably with David Wright’s with the exception of BA and OBP. His homerun, double, triple and RBI totals are quite similar. He did not have as many RBI opportunities as Wright.
Wright: 39 2b, 3 3b, 10 hr, 72 RBI
Murphy: 38 2b, 4 3b, 12 hr, 63 RBI
Murphy’s numbers after the AllStar break are likely more indicative of what we can expect from him next year:
AB 266, BA .282, 2b 27, 3b 3, HR 7, RBI 35
Extrapolating those numbers based on 600 ABs over a full season would yield something in the neighborhood of …
BA .282, 65 2b, 7 3b, 17 HR, 84 RBI
Yes, the doubles are off the charts. He actually averaged one double per every 10 at-bats after the AllStar break. The figures are calculated by doubling the numbers he generated after the AllStar break and multiplying them by a co-efficient of 1.2, an enhancement that accounts for 600 at-bats rather than the 532 ABs if you just doubled his post AllStar stats.
Yeah, yeah – I know its just numbers, but I would never, ever bet against Daniel Murphy. If you examine the stats of many of today’s AllStars, their numbers at age 24 are similar to Daniel Murphy’s.
If you take into account his bullet-proof character, and place Jose Reyes and Chone Figgins in front of him, I think some of the numbers, such as BA and RBI totals, would likely improve – particularly as he gains more experience.
We are not too far from a line-up of:
Reyes
Figgins
Holliday
Beltran
Wright
Murphy
Francouer
Thole/Santos
Pitcher
We’re THIS close to being THAT dangerous.
where in the world are you getting Wright’s stats from? His first full season he hit .306/.388/.523 = .912 OPS. Further HE WAS 22 at the time.
Wait, I found the numbers: They are from his 20yo season at A+ ball; which by the way was his second full season in pro ball. Why are you comparing a 20yo’s A+ stats against a 24yo’s ML stats?
Wright went from A+ to a half season at AA/AAA before he was called up. His next was his first ML full season and had the aforementioned OPS of .912. Murphy is nowhere near Wright.
Also, 70 RBIs from a full time 1B is horrific. Find teams that won with that type of 1B production vs teams that won with a real 1B. Figuire the odds, then see if you’re willing to bet the mortgage payment on it.
sylow – your acting as if murphy was the starting first basement to start 2009 .. obviously 70 rbis for a full time first baseman is terrible .. but can you at least consider the fact he a young player (1 at bat over the rookie label) and had everyone on the team hurt around him .. can you at least give him some props for staying healthy all year???
Scott Spiezio–world series champion 2002
Kevin Millar —world series champion 2004
Kevin Youkilis — world series champion 2007
to be fair…all AL teams with solid DH options.
2009 – Tex / Howard
2008 – Howard / Pena
2007 – Youklis / Helton (.928OPS)
2006 – Puljols / Shelton and Casey*
2005 – Konerko / Berkmann
2004 – Millar / Puljols
2003 – Derek Lee / Giambi
2002 – Spiezo / Snow #
2001 – Grace (852 OPS) / Tino (34/113 season)
2000 – Tino (.749 OPS but Posada .943) / Ziele (.823ops, but Piazza 1.012)
* – ton of power at SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, DH
# – Bonds 47, Kent 37 but probably the closet WS team with a Murphy like 1B. The Braves made it with Julio Franco at 1B; but had a team ERA+ of 133.
further:
Spiezo had a .806OPS (115OPS+) in 2002 and the Angels had a team ERA+ of 120.
Millar .857OPS (117OPS+) team ERA+ of 112 (staff of Schilling, Pedro, Lowe, and Wakefield)
Youkilis: 843ops (117OPS+) team ERA+ of 123 (Dice K, Beckett, Wakefield. Schilling
The Mets had an ERA+ of 94 in 2009 and 103 in 2008. In all three cases look at the 1B for the other 7 teams that made the playoffs; all three examples given had higher OPS and OPS+ than did Murphy, and all three teams had better pitching.
Out of the 20 WS teams there is one where Murphy could fit in without a real loss, two if you count the 2000 Yankees. That is 5% of 10%. If you expand it to the other playoff t eams it may increase to 15%, 20% tops. That is my point.
Who is better out there, right now, that is realistically available, that is an upgrade over Murphy? For 1 year, you could probably find someone. But what about the next year and the year after. Now, I’m not saying Murph is the answer. Hopefully and ideally Davis could be the answer in 2-3 years, or Adrian when we trade for (wink wink).
Honestly though, Murph can perform just as well as Youk or Millar did (both were older at that time, so of course its a little different) IF we have power elsewhere in the lineup. And you provide solid stats to certainly suggest Murph would be more suitable in the AL than with the NL, where power is more valuable.
But in the end, we’re assuming a limited ceiling for Murph, niether you or I can say how good he will be, or not be.
Ideal world, we get more power at 1B…but unless we make a trade, Murphy is more attractive than the F.A. options out there…and we may have to bite the bullet to let him play, improve, implode, until Ike Davis can play do the same.
If we sign Holliday, I have no problem with Murph as my 1B in 2010. If we dont, then we’re gonna be hurting.
I do not advocate a long term solution because of Davis so it is a one-year max situation.
There are a few options that come to mind. These are somewhat off the cuff. Uggla makes some sense. Plus you can shift him to LF or 2B. Delgado cannot be worse offensively and would be cheap; there is a bad history granted. Another is Pena in a salary dump so it may not be a prospect heavy deal. He has only 1 year left and would most likely be a Type A after 2010. If Davis is ready mid-year there will be a ton of AL teams looking for his power. Crawford + Pena makes sense; but granted may be difficult to pull off.
Youk and Millar were both better (nontrivial) offensively than was Murphy.
Yes nobody can predict but we can follow a more proven path. From what I can find Puckett was the only 24yo rookie that was horrible offensively that went on to become a solid offensive player; but that was apparantly helped by Mr. Juice.
My overall points are
1) Murphy’s offensive inadequacies must be made up elsewhere – and that doesn”t appear likely
2) Players like Murphy predominately do not become much better. i.e. do not bank on him
3) moving a player to 1B is a lot easier than moving one to, say, SS.
4) do not block Davis
Another option is for AGon. Given Davis’ year you may be able to package Davis and not a whole lot else for AGon so we may not need to trade the farm.
The best part of signing Figgins and Holliday as FAs is that the farm system will not be affected. I think that our first round selection next year – sixth – is protected because we sucked so much.
I submit that the line-up proposed above is built for any field, not just Citi Field.
Focus, Omar, focus…
with holliday looking for at least 6/120… and figgons looking for 5/50…what are your plans for the rotation??
I actually just had a nice chat with Cafardo. By nice I mean I used statistics and numbers. He called me Dumb and a joke and told me what the power hitters he spoke to “feel”
Let me share:
Me:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor
Before you write articles… do research. It is statistically HARDER to hit a HR at Fenway than it is at Citi Field. I know you want to be a homer, but don’t spread propaganda about a field you have no knowledge about.
His well educated response:
What a dumb thing to say. Ask any righthanded power hitter – which I have and you obviously haven’t – about hitting at citi field. And then ask them about fenway park. What a joke. Who cares what those stats say. The hitters don’t feel that way.
I know we need more power in the lineup. Although I wouldn’t be mad if we could add a future core player like Delmon Young from the Twins to play LF.
His value is not too high. Who do you guys think we would need to trade in order to obtain D Young. He would be nice to add to the young core of the team.
At 24 he is still approaching his best years and his short MLB career is by no means the defintion of his capabalities.
The Twins did give up Garza for him, plus they may feel jaded from the Santana deal, so maybe they wouldnt deal him to the Mets, but if so who can we give up?
is there any word on frenchy’s surgery???
Stats can be looked at in a number of ways. I find it hard to believe that Citi Field was easier to hit HR’s in than 18 other parks.
According to Hittracker.com, Citi Field was only higher than 5 ballparks. Citi averaged 1.6 HR’s per game. Below them was SF and SD with 1.59, LAD with 1.57, Atlanta at 1.53 and STL at 1.48. The league average was 2.073.
I agree the Mets need more power and it should be a right handed hitter whether it be a 1B or LF. I doubt the dimensions will make that much of a difference to a true power hitter. Philly and the Yanks had no problem hitting HR’s there. And if the $$$ is right, players will go. Sabathia and Burnett signed with the NYY. Their park averaged the most HR’s at 2.93 per game.
I don’t want Holliday bebause he will die in Citi Field. He struggled in Oakland Colliseum, which is also a pitcher’s haven. He is not a line-drive hitter, Bay is and I like Bay a little more than Holliday, because I think he fields a bit better, and is more clutch(that’s something the Mets lacked for 2-3 years, clutch hitting).
I also like a Nady signing, because even though he is coming off Tommy John Surgery, which he had in May of this year, he will be healthy to play the outfield by april, because he’s not a pitcher.
One thing that surprised me this year was how many HRs Murph hit. I think he found his nitch in Citi, pulling it down the line to the Pepsi Porch.
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