In a post to Ted Quarters, SNY’s Ted Berg offers up thoughts on Daniel Murphy, and how the team and fans need to proceed when thinking of the future.
According to Berg, it’s about patience, and, “The Mets need to take their time assessing Murphy, Murphy needs to take more pitches at the plate, and Mets fans need to stop taking for granted that the team can piece together a winner without making efforts toward sustainability.”
…i know, ted, but it’s just so damn difficult… i see this conundrum in my e-mail every day: on one hand, Mets fans love home-grown talent, and love the idea of murphy, Fernando Martinez, etc., but, on the other hand, they wan to win, and they demand results and success right now, and so it makes everyone restless when trying to be patient… i have to think the team and Omar Minaya feel this same restlessness everyday…
…on one hand, the team knows that to have a sustainable product it needs to groom a guy like murphy, and live through growing pains in pitchers like Mike Pelfrey, Bobby Parnell and others, which will eventually help them reach a balance in performance for the future… but, at the same time, there are seats to fill, ads to sell, there’s a hype-machine that must be energized in an effort to sell season-ticket plans, right now, and everyday, and patience and living through growing pains is not necessarily the best way to meet these short-term goals…
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I think the answer is to establish an environment where you can mix in prospects, not rely on them entirely.
For example, with Jeff Franceour in RF and potentially Holliday or Bay in RF, the Mets can afford to let Fernando spend time at AAA getting everyday ABs, and then when they feel he is ready, call him up and give him spot starts as a 4th outfielder in LF and RF, behind other pros.
Similarly, the same can be said for Daniel Murphy, who should be easing his way into the majors as a part-time 1B/3B/PH with perhaps even a few starts here and there as a 2B or an OF. With Wright (and a platoon mate or every day 1B) Murphy can ease his way into the role.
I think more often than not, this is the case for other team’s prospects, where as with the Mets recently, we have seen 20 year old Martinez and 24-year-old Murphy thrown into an every day role and asked to produce like an everyday corner IF/OF hitter. This is a lot to ask of a doe-eyed prospect.
The Mets had planned to do this originally, with Delgado at 1B, Wright at 3B, Church in RF and LF being split among multiple players, but due to injuries, the plan changed and the fans became unfairly impatient.
Murphy started out the year successfully as a patient hitter who looked to drive the outside pitch the other way, struggled badly for 3 months when the league adjusted to him, then re-emerged as more of a free-swinging pull hitter.
I find this change of form encouraging in a 24-year-old who was also dealing with an unexpected starting role and two unfamiliar positions in the field. It shows a willingness to adjust his approach, and a determination not to let the league’s pitchers define his strengths and weaknesses for him.
I would like to see him given a stopgap role at 1st while Ike Davis develops in the minors. If the April Murph and the September Murph ever combine into one hitter, he could surprise a lot of people.
OB said it best above, Murphy is acceptable if you improve elsewhere and he has a RH hitting complement. Murphy is a nice guy to have on a loaded team but not equipped to assume such an important power position role as an everyday 1b on a true contender.
With the caveat that he may evolve one day into the hitter you are referring to, but it’s not fair to throw him out there and judge him based on one season.
People forget that in 2008, Murphy went from A ball to AA for the first time, and hit .308 with a .500 slugging percentage over half a season before jumping right into the Majors for his first cup of coffee. Last year was his first full season as a pro, only 1 year removed from time in A ball, and he posted a .740 OPS and almost hit 40 doubles to go with his 12 HR. The kid still has a lot of potential, and while he may never get much better, he still has the ability to be a .300+/20+ guy.
Jeez . . . it sounds like we’re turning into Yankee fans . . . “demand success right now”.
Peter we haven’t won a World Series since 1986 – That is 22 or 23 seasons of NO World Series. That being said, how should passionate Met fans react?? Do you really expect us to say ..”Give Murphy a chance who cares if its been only 23 years since a World Series, it MIGHT be worth waiting another 5 or 6.” No most of us wont say that because we are long overdue for a World Series and if we could bring in a guy that could play first base better and hit better than Murphy (which is a lot of people) than we want that guy now!
Yankee fans demand to win because they are spoiled brats. Met fans demand to win because we are paying close to Yankee like prices to see the Mets and havent won in 23 years.
Hope that helps with the confusion…
hit it on the head. Just because we want to win does NOT make us Yankee fans. I don’t expect to win the world series every year (like yankee fans) but with the highest payroll in the NL and considering how much money we pay as fans I think its time we get a little demanding, i mean give me a playoff birth for crying out loud.
I hear you guys, I just don’t react well to people who “demand”.
I want the team to have a plan and follow it. That plans goal should lead to at least the playoffs while keeping future success in mind.
To me, once a team feels they need to bow to “demands” from the fanbase, they make kneejerk decisions which then set the team back years.
As for playoffs, I think we were there only a couple of years ago and if this years unprecendented rash of injuries didn’t occur we’d have taken this one down to the wire.
Let’s not make it like we’re the Cubs or something here.
But when you have the highest payroll in the league 1 playoff appearance a couple of years ago and none for the 6 years prior is a joke. Also you cant assume anything about 2009, look at 2007 and 2008. As far as I’m concerned this teams current group of talent/managers/coaches still has to prove that 2006 was not the exception and that they ARE a playoff team.
I agree that Murphy would be most valuable if he could play many positions (1b, 2b, 3b, LF). I also think that the Mets have a tendency to rush their prospects to the majors. If you look at the hated Phillies, they took their time with Utley and Howard. They made their debuts between the ages of 24 and 25, spent two years as part time players before becoming mainstays in their lineup.
Well, Howard was blocked by Thome and Utley by Polanco for years so its not really the same situation.
Howardwas not blocked by Thome. He came up in 2004 for a few games. He was at A+ in 2003, AA (102g ) and AAA (29g) in 2004 and he started the 2005 season at AAA where he played 61 games before he was called up. He was not bloced. He hit consistantly in the minors and progressed from A-SS to A to A+ to a partial season at AA to 90G at AAA before he was full time in majors. “Blocked” implies there were multiple years at the same level after proving he was able to hit there. Howard progressed on a fairly standard time line. He was good, even very good but wasn’t phenominal until he hit AA in 2004 and then he was moved quickly to the majors. He was not blocked at all.
You have a better case for Utley, but it is somewhat of a stretch. Utley went from A+ to AAA where he spent 2 seasons before being promoted in 2004 as a semi-regular. He became the regular in 2005. If anything he was blocked for half a season, maybe a full season tops. Neither was blocked “for years”.
The Mets rush their prospects to the Majors because our horrible owners don’t want to pay for a short term fix while the player develops. Murphy is a perfect example. We could have plugged a number of guys in left field last year (Abreu, Manny, Dunn, etc….) for a 1 to 2 year deal, while Murphy learned a brand new position in Triple A. Instead what do our cheapo owners do? They start a young kid in left field (a position he’s never played a full season in at any professional level) because they want to save a couple million dollars. Take a look at the deal Abreu signed with the Angels for – It was only a couple million dollars AND for only 1 season!
I wanted Dunn badly last year, he made so much sense. LF in 2009 1B in 2010. You can write in 40 HRs and a 385 OBP. Unbelievable. I love bringing this up bc I still get a kick out of the people on here with no brain saying “he K’s too much” and “he played in a hitters park”. I’m sure that HR he hit off santana to the Shake Shack shut them up.
Howard came up as a September callup in 2004. He started 2005 at AAA and became the regular after Thome was injured. Utley was a part timer for one year (2004). In 2003 he was called up in August when they shifted Polanco to 3B at which time Utley was the regular 2B for the remainder of the season.
I think there’s a difference between being patient with the growing pains of a stud young prospect — like Daniel Bard giving up homers for the Red Sox — and being patient with the growing pains of someone who has no pedigree of being that good — Murphy and Parnell.
I’m very patient with Pelfrey because I think with a better defense and more confidence he can be a great pitcher — he has shown that ability in the past.
agreed. hes a nice kid, seems like a hard worker so hes very likeable. but honestly i dont expect him to become more than a good sub/PH.
<– not getting baited into another tedious Murphy debate
This is a very pointless thread… Met fans love home grown talent (the kind from the 80s) ONLY when said prospects are legitimately talented. This whole easing a player in, showing patience, etc. is all conjecture and rhetoric… How long did the Marlins have to wait on Miguel Cabrera? The Cardinals with Pujols, Ludwick, or Wainwright? The Angels with Kendry Morales? The Brewers with Braun or the Prince? I could make a huge list as per my usual, but instead of that, let us stop our stupid line of thinking with regards to patience and letting the youth develop. We have to stop looking at the afforementioned guys as rare or once in a lifetime talents? If they were so rare, how come it took me less than a minute to iron out that brief list??? Other teams find gems like this with some regularity, why do we as Met fans have to give a prospect 5 yrs when we haven’t uncoverdd a gem in over 20?? Patience is only a virtue in Met fantasy land, where 27 yr olds are still considered young and on the verge of making an impact.
For everyone you named, there is another all-star that needed longer to develop.
Howard Johnson was given up on by the Tigers, and played 5 years (2 for the Mets) before he broke out and hit 36 homeruns at age 26 with 30 stolen bases. In the seasons before that, his OPS+ numbers were below 100. He went on to be an all-star level player for the next 5 or 6 years.
Interesting that you mentioned Ludwick … who was given up on by Texas and Cleveland before the Cardinals gave him a shot, and it took him until age 29 (7 years going back and forth between the minors and majors) before his breakout season in 2008 when he hit 37 homeruns. Talk about patience … when Ludwick was Murphy’s age, he was hitting .247 with 7 homeruns in 50 games (.737 OPS).
Murphy is 24, not 27, putting him 4-5 years younger than Ludwick was when he broke out after 2 teams traded him away.
For every prospect that bloomed early, there is another prospect that bloomed early and then regressed later or a prospect that needed several years to reach potential.
Well one of the guys you mentioned Kendry Morales is a terrible example if your trying to say he didn’t take long.
He was signed out of Cuba where he had been playing professional baseball in 2005. He was in A then double A in 2005. 2006 he started the year in AAA got called up. 2007 Started the year in AAA then got called up. 2008 started the year in AAA then got called up. That’s up and down for 3 years.
Miguel Cabrera spent 6 seasons in the minor leagues. 6 seasons.
Albert Pujols is the Freakest Example of any prospect in baseball history, especially RECENT baseball history. a 13th round pick, who was 20 years old, spent no time in minor leagues and made it to the MLB in 1 season where he just continued to hit and never stopped hitting.
Daniel Murphy went from being drafted at 21 to the majors at 23. You know who else did that Ryan Braun. Yes he hasn’t had the success Braun had in his 2nd MLB season. But most guys don’t. Braun is a freak example. Even David Wright got 4 years in the Minors. Jose Reyes got 5 years. Carlos Beltran got 4 years. Carlos Beltran struggled mightly in his 2nd season in the majors.
There are tons of freak examples. Like Lincecum, or Pujols, or Mark Prior etc. But for every freak there are 500 guys who took time to develop.
you’re definitely right about guys needing time to develop. But all those guys you mentioned who took time, took that time in the minors. And the Mets wont let their guys develop in the minors instead they rush them up to the majors to learn on the job which simply is not as effective as playing in the minors and learning. Murphy may develop into something he may not but I guarantee you he’d be better off going to AAA and letting the mets get a major leaguer (adrian gonzalez, adam laroche, adam dunn whoever) to man 1B in the meantime while Murphy AND Davis develop.
Oh I misplaced a question mark. But before people point to Wright and Reyes, just remember that they paid immediate dividends with little time in the minors.
Oh, you mean the Jose Reyes that spent almost 4 years in the minors before getting called up to the Mets, where he proceeded to post a Murphy-like OPS. In his second season, he posted an atrocious .644 OPS, and followed that up in his 3rd season with the Mets with a .686 OPS. His SLG and OBP were very poor for years, and it wasn’t until his 6th season as a pro that he actually posted some good offensive numbers.
David Wright actually had a similar path to Murphy. Both guys had a similar first year in A ball. Wright exploded at the AA level and showed a sudden surge in power, he hit .363 there. Murphy didn’t do so bad either in his first AA year: .308 .374 .496 .870, with 13 HR in a half season worth of ABs. Not bad at all.
Murphy was called up that same year (he started the year in A ball actually where he hit .500 briefly), and posted .313 .397 .473 870 in his first cup of coffee, better than Wright’s numbers in his first tour.
No one is trying to say Murphy is the next David Wright, but let’s give the kid a chance, he was rushed through the system pretty fast, did well at all levels, and just hit a speed bump in the first half of this year.
Here’s the big difference:
Wright was at AA when he was 20; Murphy was 23. Wright and Murphy had similar OPS in their first partial seasons wit the Mets. Wright went on to finish 19th in MVP voting the next year, his first full season whereas the 24yo Murphy (.741) had a marginally higher OPS than Luis Castillo (.732).
Hey, Murphy led the team in HRs in his first full season….
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